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ECB and NFP Live Coverage

ECB Interest Rates Decission and NFP release Live Coverage

(07/02/2009)

  

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12:16

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12:16

FXstreet.com:  Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's ECB Interest Rates Decision and Non-Farm Payrolls Live Coverage will start in 10 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Valeria Bednarik and Nick Nasad. Valeria is going to cover the ECB decision as a co-presenter until 12:00 GMT. From 12:00 GMT Nick Nasad will cover the live event. They will be giving us a direct picture for the market status.

12:17

FXstreet.com:  Valeria Bednarik has been an active Forex trader for the last 4 years, specializing in the International Foreign Exchange Market. She also graduates in the Universidad Catolica del Salvador, in Argentina, as a Public Account, specializing in financials and cost managements. She currently manages an important clients portfolio for IFX Markets, Boston and is senior trader manager at Molfx-Management; besides she works training new traders with Trader College LLC specializing in technical analysis, for the English speaking community.

12:17

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi everybody, and welcome to this live coverage! Is a pleasure to be here again with you all.

12:17

FXstreet.com:  Hi Valeria and welcome to today's event!

12:17

FXstreet.com:  Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex.

12:18

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12:18

Valeria Bednarik:  Today, we will be covering live, ECB rates decision, along with U.S. Non Farm Payrolls later with Nick Nassad

12:19

FXstreet.com:  The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

12:19

Valeria Bednarik:  At this first part of the webinar, we will consider probable market reactions to ECB monetary decisions

12:19

FXstreet.com:  Read Valeria's blog!

12:19

[Comment From Rahul] wt u say about euro?

12:20

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi Rahul and welcome! Well I have been watching earlier today, unemployment rate of euro zone rose to 9.5% almost the same we expect for the U.S. later

12:21

Valeria Bednarik:  Euro zone has nothing to cheer about, despite how hawkish Trichet's speech could be. Comments across the world about bottoming crisis, and signs of recovery

12:21

Valeria Bednarik:  are denied by this unemployment rising readings.

12:21

Valeria Bednarik:  From a technical point, Euro has a first support around 1.4040 yet stronger the 1.4000 level.

12:22

Valeria Bednarik:  break under that zone could trigger some bearish momentum, while above 1.4100, we could see a retest of the 1.4200

12:22

Valeria Bednarik:  anyway, we are expecting market to hold and range after this first release,

12:22

Valeria Bednarik:   and wait for Trichet speech and NFP later

12:22

[Comment From arun kandyal] hi what we can expect from gbp n eur today

12:23

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi Arun welcome! About euro, well I have just posted. Regarding GBP, the pair isunder selling pressure no doubts. we have an ascendant trend line along with daily 20 SMA around 1.6350 zone,

12:24

Valeria Bednarik:  so, here we have a strong support that should offer some rebounds, as we are seeing now, yet a break and maybe a 4 hours candle opening under that level,

12:25

Valeria Bednarik:  will put some extra pressure in gbp, and chances of a retest of 1.6200 come into play

12:25

[Comment From zaphy] Hi Valeria. But why is the cable rising?

12:25

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi zaphy! well, we are ahead of a couple of first line events, and pair rebounded just in the strong support zone I mentioned above,

12:26

Valeria Bednarik:  yet not real bullish strength there yet. We have to wait how things settle after the report.

12:26

Valeria Bednarik:  I see first resistance strong level around 1.6470. Break above there in Gbp, will open doors for further rises

12:26

[Comment From Juozas] Helo, how can nfp report impact usd/jpy pair?

12:27

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi Juozas! I believe there the impact will come trough stocks. If stocks rise, UJ will tend to rise, thus the pair has turned sligthly bullish lately,

12:28

Valeria Bednarik:  no clear signs there yet. . we have to see the pair above 97.20, and then 97.80, daily descendant trned line, to call for a real appreciation in the pair

12:29

Valeria Bednarik:  supports on the other and will come at 96.00 level, and then 95.50..I don't expect the pair to fall much more than that

12:29

[Comment From marti] hi Valeria

12:29

Valeria Bednarik:   Hi Marti, welcome

12:29

[Comment From arun kandyal] could 1.6200-50 area try to go long

12:30

Valeria Bednarik:  Well arum, is the base of the range we are moving in the last couple of weeks, and at that level, we will be down more than 200 pips in the day, so could be a short term chance.You have to watch the strength of the rebound:

12:31

Valeria Bednarik:  if pair rebounds yet remain hovering around that zone, then, chances are for a break in the next couple of sessions. A strong rebound that put price closer to 1.6300, will be a great sign of still in range

12:31

[Comment From marti] do u think the euro will go bellow 1.35

12:32

Valeria Bednarik:   At this moment, seems a bit to far. the level in the longer term to watch to the downside is also far, at 1.3740. That point is need to be broken to see the pair turning bearish and reach that zone

12:32

[Comment From chintan] what is market trand today

12:32

Valeria Bednarik:   Hi chintan! you can see it at the blog!

12:32

[Comment From arya] hi Valeria

12:33

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi ayra! welcome

12:33

FXstreet.com:  The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

12:33

Valeria Bednarik:  There is the link for the blog! tks Fxstreet!

12:33

[Comment From zaphy] when you say 'expect the pair to fall' do you refer to previous supports/resistances or the range that happened at previous ECB/NFP...announcements?

12:34

Valeria Bednarik:  Yes Zaphy, I refer to previous supp/res levels. The fact is that we need to wait at least 15 minutes, after the realize of NFP to take trading decisions.

12:34

FXstreet.com:  Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex.

12:34

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12:34

Valeria Bednarik:  In the midle we will see pairs probably jumping up or down 20 30 pips,

12:35

FXstreet.com:   now let's see what do you think about the ECB... Vote the poll!

12:35

Valeria Bednarik:  with no clear bias... once market diggest the new, trend will be set

12:35

[Comment From ceasar] Hi Valeria,

12:35

Will the ECB low the bench mark interest rate? Yes, the ECB will cut it by 25bps  ( 2% ) Yes, the ECB will cut it by 50bps  ( 54% ) Yes, on an aggressive cut it by more than 75bps.  ( 2% ) No, the ECB will rather hold the ongoing rate.  ( 43% ) No, the ECB will rather hike it by 25bps  ( 0% ) No, the ECB will rather hike it by 50bps  ( 0% )

12:35

[Comment From Jay] TRend is up for the USD, expectations for NFP are positive

12:35

Valeria Bednarik:  Yes Jay, it is. we need to see if previous month has any important revision, and how much unemployment rate rose.

12:36

Valeria Bednarik:   lately a very bad reading have been triggering risk aversion rallyes, that end favoring dollar and yen.

12:36

Valeria Bednarik:  Don't get surprise if we see that again today

12:36

[Comment From arun kandyal] do u think gbp can go below 1.5500 this month

12:37

Valeria Bednarik:  Arum, in the longer term, we have 3 big supports ahead of that: the 1.6200 base of the range. A monthly 38.2% fibo around 1.6050, and then the lows at 1.5760 or so.

12:37

Valeria Bednarik:  1.55 seems far with those 3 big supports in the midle.

12:37

[Comment From ceasar] If i want to play euro/usd right now what should be the lvls to watch out for ?

12:38

Valeria Bednarik:  Ceasar I already post them, look a bit up

12:38

[Comment From arya] is there any impact for eur/usd , through to 4th july??

12:38

Valeria Bednarik:  Well, is when oficially summer vacations begins, we will see the famous sumer duldroms... I expect lack of trend and thin volume starting next monday.. so any small event could trigger a strong movement..

12:39

[Comment From marti] 10x valeria

12:39

[Comment From Guest] i was watching the gbp/usd ysterday hoping that it would make a neckline at 1.6610 to short but it never got there would you think that trade is now broken since its trading around 1.6379.

12:40

Valeria Bednarik:  Yes, as posted earlier, if pair maanges to close day under 1.6350, chances of seeing soon 1.66 decrease

12:40

[Comment From macharia] is it advisable to open any position at the moment or we wait til the news are realised.am much with you here

12:41

Valeria Bednarik:  I just closed all my positions... 15 minutes ago. for me, is a wait and see...market wil be here in 1 hour more..

12:41

[Comment From Jay] I'm very curious about Trichet's comments on eurozone deflation, that's basically the most important statement, imho.

12:41

Valeria Bednarik:  Yes Jay, exactly! but we know Trichet tend to be hawkish

12:42

Valeria Bednarik:   so I don't expect him to talk about deflation, you know? ECB was created to fight inflation... and seems Trichet can woory just about that

12:42

[Comment From macharia] if ecb decide to keep the interest rates unchanged,how wil that afect the eur/usd

12:43

Valeria Bednarik:  rates won't affect market. Later speech and NFP will..

12:43

[Comment From Zhang] Could you guess gold's reaction after ECB's rate decision?

12:44

Valeria Bednarik:  Guess? yes! will be a guess as I don't follow it to much, but i don't wait gold to appreciate anytime sooner. we are in a consolidation stage there! wuith price between 950 910...

12:44

[Comment From Guest] No,they will not change it!

12:44

[Comment From arun kandyal] what levels do you expect to go long and short in gbp and eur for the next week

12:45

Valeria Bednarik:  Next week arum? let me see what levels we have at today's close and then I tell you! if daily close under or above key levels mentioned earlier, there I will go!

12:45

Valeria Bednarik:  1 minute to go!

12:45

Valeria Bednarik:   NO CHANGES!

12:45

FXstreet.com:  ECB Rates Decision: UNCHANGED!

12:46

Valeria Bednarik:  first reaction is stocks positive, and against dollar nothing really too serious yet watch euro if regains the 1.4110 could retest 1.4140/50 zone

12:46

[Comment From ceasar] I have couple of positions still open.....and am betting on USD strength...do u feel knowing Trichet's comments I should close the position ?

12:46

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12:46

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12:47

Valeria Bednarik:  If you are not risking your account, you can hold them, but this reports, in the short term, turn to just a bet

12:47

Valeria Bednarik:  for me at least! you know? short term trades will be affected no doubts.. longer term decsion no

12:48

[Comment From ceasar] Zhang, Gold is really not giving any direction and is eating Stop losses either way....today also 945-923 should be the range

12:48

Valeria Bednarik:  yes ceaser tks!

12:48

[Comment From Guest] why doesn't the market react ?

12:48

Valeria Bednarik:  waiting for NFP and Trichet speech as usual

12:48

[Comment From Tarun] Good day valeria , how this will effect gbp/usd ? and can we see 1.43 and 1.67 levels in EURO and GBP against USD again ?

12:50

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi tarum, seems a bit too much for today, but to call for such levels, we need to see Gbp close the day at least above 1.6470/6500 zone, and euro well above 1.4150. I don't see really chances of both pair rising too much, Euro, because of 9.5% unempoloyment rate,

12:50

Valeria Bednarik:  Gbp, because all the bad data including awgul GDP we are seeing this week

12:50

[Comment From Jay] Rate unchanged was to be expected, now what about quantative easing ECB style? What do you expect Valeria?

12:51

Valeria Bednarik:  Exactly Jay! that will push euro.. no more quantitative and a hawkish comment, could push euro up no doubts. And I don't expect Trichet to be dovish.. matbe he sorprise me today...

12:51

[Comment From heru] valeria, what do you feel about eur/usd, a good buy or sell ?

12:52

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi Heru! I learn to not watch what I FEEL many years ago in here.... je.. joking.. anyway! sell euro if reach 1.4200 again... or break under 1.3980.. that's what i will try to do

12:52

[Comment From arun kandyal] thx val

12:52

[Comment From Guest] what time is pseech by trichet?

12:53

Valeria Bednarik:  at 12:30 gmt along with NFP...

12:53

[Comment From nagalla] what will happen in eur\usd if NFP comes better than expect?

12:53

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi nagalla! if NFP comes really better, we could see stocks rising and maybe euro rising too

12:53

[Comment From VG] I think Trichet comments are important

12:53

[Comment From Guest] so does this mean eur/jpy ... will set new highs ?

12:54

Valeria Bednarik:  Probably yes! expect a retest of the 150 area zone there.. we are in a bullish trend, guided by a pretty nice ascendant trned line, today around 134.

12:54

[Comment From Tarun] so a perfect trend reversal from tomorrow ? can we take sell positions ?

12:55

Valeria Bednarik:  Maybe Tarum! we will review this later today at 22.30 GMT in the live wrap up webinar!

12:55

[Comment From ceasar] I have a strong feeling that all said and done...either way we will see Dollar strength later today..Trichet will be Dovish today for a change and would be on the rethoric that ECB is willing to take steps to increase liquidity etc...

12:55

Valeria Bednarik:  well, Ceasar just 2 hours to see the true..

12:56

[Comment From mangalia] so it's a good time to go long on gbp/jpy ?

12:56

Valeria Bednarik:   not for me.. if gbp falls under 1.6350... gbp is possed for a stronger fall

12:56

[Comment From ceasar] Well said Valeria....we are still in the stage where we trade with what we FEEL...and have to learn to do as you said !

12:57

[Comment From Faraz] they are saying to record easing policy! what will be its impact on the market?

12:57

FXstreet.com:  The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

12:57

Valeria Bednarik:  poor euro.. if they ease.

12:57

[Comment From Sushant] i have some long positions in euro usd running in losses...shall i hold?

12:57

Valeria Bednarik:  Sushant... not for me... place a stop... and find a point where your account wont be harmed

12:58

[Comment From Brendan] Do you believe that there is some correlation between gold and euro ?

12:58

Valeria Bednarik:  Correlation is between dollar and gold, they tend to move oppoiste so yes, at the end, euro sees the impact

12:58

[Comment From Ricky] Hi Valeria !! ; P

12:58

[Comment From Tarun] oh sure valeria !! and thanks a lot

12:59

FXstreet.com:  Thank you Valeria for giving us a great market view!...

12:59

Valeria Bednarik:  Ok so! i'm really sorry to leave you all, but I will give my place to Nick Nassad!

12:59

Valeria Bednarik:  welcome Nick, and all of you enjoy! and good trading! see you back in webinars, blog, and next ECB time!

1:00	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Hello everyone, and thank you Valeria for your excellent coverage

1:00	FXstreet.com:   we have had a great time with you. From now Nick will take over the event.

1:00	Valeria Bednarik:  Tks all! see you soon! Bye!

1:00	Nick Nasad - CMS:  and thank you fxstreet for having me on again

1:01

FXstreet.com:  Nick Nasad is a currency market analyst with CMS Forex for the last 3 years. He closely monitors fundamental releases and reports their results and provides commentary to the company's clients through CMS Forex's interactive economic calendar Forex Capsule and through daily Forex market video recaps. He has also written extensive educational material on using technical analysis in trading Forex.

1:02	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the reation so far to the ECB decision has been muted, as we await what Trichet has to say regarding quantitative easing and inflation. We saw flash CPI data from the Euro-zone show a negative reading, increasing worries over weak infaltion

1:02	Nick Nasad - CMS:  that would suggest that the plans for quantitative easing by the ECB would continue, and we may get some language regarding that in today's statement.

1:02	FXstreet.com:  Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex.

1:02	[Comment From arun kandyal] could you provide me the link where i can get to know about the trichet speech

1:03	Nick Nasad - CMS:  http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html

1:03	Nick Nasad - CMS:  you will be able to find the speech here

1:03	[Comment From Jon] Is sterling doomed again then?

1:05	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Pound is managing a slight rally after sliding from teh 1.65 level in today's trading. The GBP/USD looked set to break out of its sideways range on Tuesday, but the weak GDP data squashed that rally.

1:06	Nick Nasad - CMS:  though manufacturing data was better than expected yesterday, construction PMI weakened today, adding another piece of negative fundamental data to this week.

1:07	Nick Nasad - CMS:  That and a decline in stocks were all pressuring the Pound to start the European session. If the NFP figure comes in far away from expectations, the pair may see a strong move, other wise it looks like we may be playing the range

1:07	[Comment From david] nick if NFP come in worse than expected. do you see USD rallying do to risk adversion?

1:07

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1:08	What do you anticipate the outcome of NFP? Better than expected and bullish for the USD  ( 23% ) Better than expected but bearish for the USD  ( 8% ) Worse than expected and bearish for the USD  ( 25% ) Worse than expected but bullish for the USD  ( 40% ) Not much impact on the USD  ( 5% )

1:09	Nick Nasad - CMS:  higher than expected NFP would add more to speculation that the global recovery will be a slower one. That would have the reaction of weakening higher-yielders and boosting the greenback.

1:09	[Comment From MIKE] HI NICK...LAST TIME YOU RIGHTLY PREDICTED 'CONFLICTED FORECED' ..BETTER TOTAL ENEMPLOYED NO,,VS HIGHER RATE...DO SEE ANY SUCH TODAY?

1:10	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the unemployment rate will be rather important as we approach the dreaded 10% unemployment rate.

1:11	Nick Nasad - CMS:  expectations are for a climb to 9.6%. That can happen even if the payroll figure comes in close to expectations, around a loss of 345K.

1:12	[Comment From Iman] Hi Nick, I'd be happy to hear your comments about today's NFP data and your speculation about how it would impact the majors.

1:15

Nick Nasad - CMS:  the ADP employment change yesterday showed private sector employment down more than expected, a negative factor on the upcoming NFP. We also saw consumer confidence fall partly on the fact that sentiment about the availability of jobs in June was weak. However, in the manfuacturing PMI for the US, employmnet was shown to have decreased at a slower rate.. So, on the one hand, looking at the decrease in jobless claims in teh last month, expectations are for a similar figure to May, though if you are pessimistic payrolls could drop as much as 400K

1:15	Nick Nasad - CMS:  as i mentioned earlier, a higher than expected print should work to hurt risk appetite, increasing risk aversion, and the greenback and yen.

1:15	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the EUR/USD is extending to new lows for the day now near 1.4050

1:16	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we've slid a good amount already today, since yesterday's test of 1.42., but there is still room to fall to 1.40

1:17	Nick Nasad - CMS:  that has been a key support, and also lines up with a short term upward sloping trendling (connecting the lows from June 23rd and June 25)

1:17	FXstreet.com:  Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex.

1:18	[Comment From pepa] do you think that euro will reach 1.4180 today

1:18	[Comment From ali] hi nick ,would u like to comment about the nfp date impact on gpb

1:20

Nick Nasad - CMS:  with the focus on the prospects for the global economy's recovery and not on just the health of the US economy, today's NFP should play into risk sentiment. a better than expected figure can stall today's greenback advances., however a figure that is worse than expected can extend the gains by the greenback.

1:20	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the EUR continues to drop prior ot the release.

1:20	[Comment From Mr. CAD] Given the balooning deficits of the UK why should GBP go up?

1:22

Nick Nasad - CMS:  though the deficit is a problem, what traders are watching for with the Pound are signs of a recovery which would give the Bank of England room to conclude their quantitative easing measures, and for the bank to eventually raise interest rates. the economy that recovers first (from the US, UK, Euro) and looks closest to raising interest rates will be a beneficiary in the medium term.

1:23

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1:23	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the sideways range we are seeing in the gbp/usd since June 11th is an indication that traders and investors are not sure which direction to take the pair

1:23	[Comment From zaphy] Given the ballooning deficits in the US why should that go up :)?

1:24	Nick Nasad - CMS:  this is a good point in that high deficits are not exclusive to the UK, as the US and others are using all the tools at their disposal to try and pump liquidity into the markets and to stimulate recovery through fiscal spending.

1:25	[Comment From mike] I do not get the idea of the ECB being hawkish,Is convenient a higher euro for them in terms of recovery???

1:26

Nick Nasad - CMS:  Like Valeria pointed out before, the ECB's main goal is to fight inflation and so usually policy makers err on that side. The reasons for this go back to the formation of the ECB and the fact that the German central bank valued price stability very highly (they suffered through hyper inflation and never want to repeat that)

1:27	Nick Nasad - CMS:  however with annual CPI turning negative in June, eyes will be focused more on the quantitative easing plans than on inflation.

1:28	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Pound is showing some signs of life, advancing agasint the Swiss Franc

1:28	Nick Nasad - CMS:  and paring its earlier losses to the Yen

1:29	Nick Nasad - CMS:  only a couple of minutes away

1:29	[Comment From Adrian] It's 5 minutes to NFP, any ideas to Open Position?

1:30	Nick Nasad - CMS:  at this point its better to see what the release holds, and the initial reaction

1:30	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Eur/usd falls to 1.4015 very sharply, and then pares that, looks like we have a pick up in volatility

1:30	Nick Nasad - CMS:  -467K

1:31	FXstreet.com:  Non Farm Payrolls Actual -467K vs Forecast -375K Unemployment rate 9.5% vs Forecast 9.6%

1:32	Nick Nasad - CMS:  this is the figure that meats pessimists expectations, worse than expected, and lets see if the dollar gets punished as it implies the US economy is worse than expected, or if risk sentiment forces and an increase in risk aversion helps the greenback.

1:32	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the EUR/USD after the initial slide to 1.4016 is trading around its pre-release levels.

1:33	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the USD/JPY slid to a new intra-day low at 96.30 in the wake of the release,

1:33	FXstreet.com:   Non Farm Payrolls Actual -467K vs Forecast -375K Unemployment rate 9.5% vs Forecast 9.6%

1:34	Nick Nasad - CMS:  there are 2 factors countering the weak payroll figure.. the fact that the unemployment rate is better than expected and last month's figure showing a positive revision

1:34	[Comment From ceasar] AUD is the weak link

1:36

Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Aussie has been under pressure all session following its weak trade balance data., It looks to be setting up a downward channel, if you connect this week's highs, and project a parallel trendline to yetserday lows.., the greenback gained to the 0.7980 level jsut now, which not only hits that support trendline i mention, but is also horizontal support from Monday

1:36

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1:36	Nick Nasad - CMS:  weak trade will give the Australian economy strong headwinds in teh second half of the year, complicating the country's economic picture

1:37	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Meanwhile, jobless claims fell 16K to 614K

1:38	Nick Nasad - CMS:  following the initial 5 minutes of volatile action, lets see if we have follow through to the initial greenback strength

1:39	Nick Nasad - CMS:  greenback strength is evident again,

1:40	FXstreet.com:  Non Farm Payrolls Actual -467K vs Forecast -375K Unemployment rate 9.5% vs Forecast 9.6%

1:40	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the data shows that the outlook that some economists had, and which led to the consensus forecast was too optimistic, and that the labor market in the US will continue to drag down growth., that spells trouble for the biggest economy, which will radiate out to the global economy.

1:40	Nick Nasad - CMS:  that is why we are seeing such a strong move to risk aversion.

1:41	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the AUD/USD is retesting 0.7972, moviong below monday's low.

1:41	[Comment From Peter] ok now what? time to start early weekend?

1:42	Nick Nasad - CMS:  there's still going to be some importanat moves to shake out today, considering the NFP figure came in so far below expectations.. so dont pack it up just yet,..

1:42	[Comment From mystic mike] suposed to be large buy interest on eurusd at 1.4000

1:43	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the 1.40 level has been a key support level for the pair this week. and was important resistance last week, so its is a very important level to watch.

1:44	[Comment From jef] I don't trust the euro down move..

1:45	FXstreet.com:  Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex.

1:46	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the pair has bounced off the upward sloping level of support i had mentioned earlier, and its worth it to wait to see which side wins out in this pair, we are having very volatile action, and should keep an eye if we retest the low seen right after the release.

1:46	[Comment From ceasar] what time is Trichet's press conference ???

1:47	Nick Nasad - CMS:  right now the reaction in the markets is being driven by the reaction to the labor data from the US. but you can follow trichet's speech here: http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html

1:50	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the GBP/JPY saw a sharp fall, wiping away the attempt at a counter rally, and is now at its lowest since Monday. connecting recent highs from June 23rd also shows a break of an upward sloping trendling of support.

1:50	[Comment From nys] hmm, how long do you think it will take for a eur/usd volality to subside?

1:52	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the NFP data changes the outlook economists had for the US jobs market, as the deterioration that econoimsts had expected to ease not materializing. therefore as traders and investors price in the data we will have volatile conditions..

1:54	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Trichet said that inflation risks are broadly based and that interest rates are "appropriate"

1:54	Nick Nasad - CMS:  high volatility continues as the Euro moves back to 1.4050 level

1:56	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the EUR/JPY is testing a level of support now as well, connecting highs from June 23rd and June 28th.. following the rally to 136.80.. a break there and of horizontal support at 135 could be an indication of further correction in this pair

1:56	[Comment From ceasar] seems like last leg up....USD should strenghten !!!

1:57	Nick Nasad - CMS:  yes, we are having quite the back and forth prce action.

1:57	FXstreet.com:  Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex.

1:57

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1:58	Nick Nasad - CMS:  in more from Trichet's conference, he says that negative inflation to be short-lived, and that the risks to economic outlook look balanced..

1:59	[Comment From yoshi] i just wanna ask mr nick, do u think gbp/usd will move up again in next few days, or continue to react bearish? what the reason then.. thanks before...

2:01

Nick Nasad - CMS:  the gbp/usd has been trading in a very defined sideways channel the past several weeks. I would suggest that you watch for what happens at that channels support at 1.62 and resistance at 1.66., currently the Pound is coming under pressure from weak GDP data, and the increase in risk aversion seen in the overnight session. but as along as we are stuck within this range its hard to see a direction for the pair. theres always the possibility of trading the range if you have that as part of your trading strategy...

2:02	Nick Nasad - CMS:  so it looks like the EUR/USD may have bounced off its support and is now holding onto the 1.4050 area. that could mean limited greenback gains the rest of the way.. the USD/JPy meanwhile is setting new intraday lows.

2:03	FXstreet.com:  Sorry .... we just have 5 minutes left.. if you have any questions, Please ask Nick!

2:04	[Comment From pippin] Hey Nick, Great commentary so far. what do you think about the CHF? Do you think the banks will intervene?

2:06

Nick Nasad - CMS:  well, we saw what it looks like when the Swiss bank intervenes, we had a very strong example on June 24th in the EUR/CHF. the swiss national bank has drawn a line in the sand at teh 1.50 level, though they have not said so publicly. since the swiss franc climbs on risk aversion, if economic data remains weak, the franc should continue gaining. That could force another round of intervention as the SNB is determined to be aggressive in stopping any unwanted appreciation of its currency

2:06	[Comment From miq-glen] After G/J sharp fall, what next for G/J direction?

2:08	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we can have a further correction to the rally seen from june 23rd to june 30th, though we have entered a zone between 156.70 and 158 that may support the pair

2:08	Nick Nasad - CMS:  sorry everyone, my time here is coming to an end. im going to take one last question

2:08	[Comment From Vern] Hi guys. I'm trading the USD/CAD and would be interested to know your views

2:10

Nick Nasad - CMS:  the USD/CAD, like the GBP/USD is in a sideways trading range with support at 1.1450 and ressitance at 1.1650. We went from the top of that range to the bottom in yesterday's trading. If risk aversion and lower commodity prices rule the rest of the week, the greenback will strengthen here.. Look what happens at 1.1650 though as the pair has so far been unable to penetrate that level

2:10	Nick Nasad - CMS:  and that's all the time i have..

2:10	FXstreet.com:  Sorry people... It is time to wrap up the event.

2:11	Nick Nasad - CMS:  i really appreciate all the questions, we had so many, so im sorry to anyone that didnt get theirs posted.

2:11	Nick Nasad - CMS:  thank you for your time and participation

2:12	FXstreet.com:   Thank you Nick for the great market view. We really appreciate that.. Thank you very much!

2:12	Nick Nasad - CMS:  thank you all, hope to see you next time

2:12	FXstreet.com:  And i am really happy to have had a nice time those have joined the event, Thank you for coming!

2:14	FXstreet.com:   Alright, i hope to see you all again here in the next live coverage. Thank you!. Bye for now. Adios!

2:14	FXstreet.com:  Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex.

2:15

Economic and Technical View of the Currency Market

Expert: Rob Booker, Founder and Host at TraderRadio.net
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
Rob Booker surveys the most important recent economic news, including what is currently driving movement the currency markets. He also covers some of the best current short and long term trading setups using a unique technical perspective.

Trading Break Out's And Other Market Views

Expert: Phil Newton, Developer of Trading Strategies at Trading Strategies.info
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:

Learn how to identify and trade overnight trading ranges. A detailed description of what to do, when to do it and why you should do it. Master some simple rules and spot a regularly repeating pattern day after day.

Market harmonics and Forex Trading

Expert: Derek Frey, Senior Market Strategist at ForexTradersDaily.com
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
Traders are always looking for an edge in the markets. Market Harmonics is a proven science with over a 75 year track record that is better than 70% accurate. Come see how and why market harmonics is a simple way to consistently put the odds on your side.

GDP Live Coverage

GDP Release Live Coverage with Nick Nasad

(06/25/2009)

  

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1:12

FXstreet.com:  Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's U.S. GDP Live Coverage will start in 5 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Nick Nasad who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. He will be giving us a direct picture for the market status.

1:13

FXstreet.com:  Nick Nasad is a currency market analyst with CMS Forex for the last 3 years. He closely monitors fundamental releases and reports their results and provides commentary to the company's clients through CMS Forex's interactive economic calendar Forex Capsule and through daily Forex market video recaps. He has also written extensive educational material on using technical analysis in trading Forex.

1:14

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1:14	FXstreet.com:  Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex.

1:14	FXstreet.com:  Hello Nick and welcome back!

1:15	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Hello everyone, and thank you fxstreet for having me on

1:17	Nick Nasad - CMS:  sorry, having a slight technical issue, will be ready shortly

1:18	FXstreet.com:  We are experiencing some technical issues, please bear with us while we try to solve the problems. Apologies for any inconvenience

1:18	[Comment From KB] hi Nick, what shall we expect from this event?

1:18	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Hello KB, I dont know if there will be too much a reaction to today's GDP report since its the third version of the release

1:19	Nick Nasad - CMS:  but in today's session there hasn't been much to go on in terms of fundamental news

1:19	Nick Nasad - CMS:  and we have seen that translate into low volatility in the EUR/USD pair, though some others pairs, those involving the Pound have seen some better moves.

1:20	[Comment From Alfredo] Imho euro will drop even more after GDP release no matter how good or bad will be the GDP. In your opinion Nick?

1:21	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Euro saw some good gains against its other rivals that are not the dollar, looking at the Yen and Pound.

1:22

Nick Nasad - CMS:  The EUR/JPY pair however ran up against ressistance near the 135 area, so any further gains may be limited in that pair. The EUR/GBP is also coming up against its resistance at 0.86.. if you believe teh Eruo is ready for a correction in this pairs then, the EUR/USD would fall as well

1:22	FXstreet.com:  Now it's your turn to predict what will happen today, vote the poll!

1:23	What do you anticipate the outcome of U.S. GDP? Good result and bullish for the USD  ( 40% ) Good result but bearish for the USD  ( 16% ) Expected result and low volatility  ( 20% ) Bad result and bearish for the USD  ( 20% ) Bad result but bullish for the USD  ( 4% )

1:23	[Comment From nagalla] what will happen in euro and gbp if GDP shows positive?

1:25	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Nagalla, if we have a better than expected number, it will continue to push the theme that the US economy is starting to show signs of recovery, which would increase teh chances that the Fed is ready to begin its exit strategy from the current low interest rates

1:26	Nick Nasad - CMS:  that would be positive for the dollar. Traders saw a hint of this in the FOMC statement yesterday, as the Fed gave a bit of a rosier assessment of the economy and softened its langugage regarding the fears of deflation.

1:26	[Comment From Guest] US futures are slightly up... Yen crosses stop declining for the moement. I have long USD&JPY at 93.30.... do you expect the unit to attempt further upwards... like above 97.20 ??

1:27	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the yen has been faily weak overall in today's session., and in the USD/JPY since bouncing up off support near 94.90, the pair looks poised to test resistance.

1:28	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the 97.20 level is the support turned resistance level that I would look at as well, but price actin the past several hours suggest we may be seeing an intra-day high.

1:28	Nick Nasad - CMS:  A rally in US equities could give the greenback the boost it needs.

1:29	[Comment From fid] Hello, what happens is the number is 4,9% that is better for the economy but wall strret goes up and the dollar get weaken and if the number is 6% the risk apears again and the dollarget stronger. Do you see this is the possibility during the publication the GDP?

1:31	FXstreet.com:  GDP has been released: -5,5%

1:31

Nick Nasad - CMS:  I dont see that much revisions to the 1st quarter numbers and it depends on which pair you are looking at for the behavior of the greenback and risk sentiment. Against the Euro, stronger news for the US economy has been benefiting the Dollar as it pushed the theme that the economy is beginning to slow its pace of decline and start a recovery, a prerequisite for higher US interest rates

1:32	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the USD/JPY is seeing a dip initially, while the EUR/USD is setting new intra-day lows

1:33	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Jobless Claims +15K to 627K

1:33	[Comment From Guest] 97.20 might be hard.... the unit has already moved up over 100 pips since Asisan session...

1:34	[Comment From Iman] Nick, do you think that this report could pull gbpusd out of 1.62-1.66 or eurusd out of 1.38-1.42 range

1:34	[Comment From ejthekkan] expected low for gbp '/usd today

1:35	Nick Nasad - CMS:  This release does not seem to have the impetus to break the range the pair has established.

1:36	[Comment From Nirav] Nick, I had to same question as Iman also, do you think this is will eurusd out of 1.38-1.42 range?

1:37	Nick Nasad - CMS:  With little in the way of big news events teh rest of the week, we may be likely to constinue consolidating. the EUR/USD has an upward sloping line of support that could be tested if greenback strength carries through into the rest of NY trading.

1:38	Nick Nasad - CMS:  so the reaction seems rather muted, the higher jobless claims number is disappointing as many are looking for signs of a tightening in the labor market as an indication that the real economy is getting better.

1:39	Nick Nasad - CMS:  that may counter the positive effects to the greenback from the upward revision to the GDP data.

1:39	[Comment From Jawed] Nick, what do you expect for the EUR/GBP pair, when both EUR/GBP are falling?

1:41

Nick Nasad - CMS:  like in some of the other pairs involving the Pound the EUR/GBP is searchign for direction, with the pair entering its own range. The strong resistance at 0.86 is the most important line, with support being established at higher lows in the past 4 sessions. that could mean weare sqeezing in an ascending triangle.

1:42	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Pound was weaker today as bank stocks in London were lower. The EUR/GBP follows European equity sentiments, with the Pound gaining on risk appetite and the Euro gaining when stocks are down.

1:43	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Overnight, the Pound was knocked lower by reports of a rift between the Bank of England and the UK Treasury over new banking regulations which fed into the factors I listed above.

1:43	[Comment From Mungo] GBP finding support 1.6250 but will break down...imo

1:43	[Comment From Guest] Yes "Flesh"jobless claim data has more impact than "Quaterly"GDP.

1:44	[Comment From Jonny] Nick, how could GDP data effect the greenback more than the unemployment claims data?

1:45

Nick Nasad - CMS:  Johnny, as Guest said in the posted comment, the weekly data is much more fresh than the third release of GDP.. we are seeing another push towards greenback strength in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD, not major but setting another set of fresh lows. The POund pair especailly now tests support from the past two weeks.

1:47	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the Pound is testing the support Mungo is referring to while the EUR/USD is setting fresh lows

1:48	Nick Nasad - CMS:  sorry had a technical issue

1:49	FXstreet.com:  We are experiencing some technical issues today. Please bear with us while we try to solve it.

1:49	Nick Nasad - CMS:  that pattern, greenback rising against Pound and Euro, but falling vs Yen is a sign that risk appetite is waning, and traders may be putting on risk aversion trades.

1:50	Nick Nasad - CMS:  this is more a reaction to jobless claims increasing, as well as the return to higher continuing claims, the total number of people that continue to collect benefits past one week

1:51	[Comment From Jawed] Nick, is their any corelation with the gold rates and EUR? Some say if Gold rate rises then EURO rises and vice versa.

1:51	Nick Nasad - CMS:  there is a correlation between oil and the dollar, meaning if the greenback falls, oil prices rise.. with gold an important factor is inflation.

1:51	FXstreet.com:  Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex.

1:52

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1:52	[Comment From Guest] SNB will hate USA if USD/CHF goes down... the market is so huge that central banks' injections are not powerful... hehe

1:54

Nick Nasad - CMS:  the SNB is determined to keep the Franc from appreciating too much, but its seems more concerned with the exchange rate against the Euro. That would make sense considering the Euro-zone is Switzerland main trading partner and any effects of a higher currency, mainly cheaper imports that feed into price deflation, and higher export prices weakening demand for Swiss products is the reason the central bank continues to intervene.

1:55	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the EUR/CHF right now is showing three red hourly candles following a jump to retest yesterday's high.

1:56

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1:57	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the attempts to break support for the GBP/USD have failed so far., so this 1.62-1.66 range seems determined to hold. well see what the rest of the session has to offer.

1:57	[Comment From Guest] How about the other commodity pairs??? might be itneresting to go counter USD/CAD now?

1:57	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Loonie is an interesting pair, and got quite overextended when it reached the 1.08 level at teh beginning of the month

1:59	Nick Nasad - CMS:  that followed a fall in the second half of May that broke down through support near 1.15. The 1.15 level seemed a sensible area for the pair to correct part of its downmove from March-May.

2:00

Nick Nasad - CMS:  or if you look at just the last leg from April 23rd to May 29th, the rally in the greenback is close to a 61.8% retracement. So far however, it doesnt seem that the 1.15 level has stopped the greenback's advance against the Loonie. The next strong level of resistance is near 1.20, if we see a continuation of greenback strength in this pair.

2:00	[Comment From John] how should we go about trading the EUR/CHF then?

2:02

Nick Nasad - CMS:  When considering possible SNB intervention, we know see that the 1.50 level is a "line in the sand" almost. However the bank is battling forces that want to see the Franc appreciate so the pair could trend downward again, similar to what happened In March following the SNB's initial intervention

2:03	Nick Nasad - CMS:  We'll see if the newest round of intervention scared off pair's bears,.

2:03	[Comment From Guest] will the gbp/usd go uptrend?

2:03	[Comment From savio] will gbp/usd go upwards???

2:06

Nick Nasad - CMS:  We are testing the support of a channel that has defined itself very clearly. If ranging conditions in the pair continue its possibly we have another rally to retest resistance. how you enter into the trade though should depend on your trading plan and the signals you use to confirm a range trade. for instance, waiting for a break of a downward sloping trendline connecting the reent highs.

2:07	[Comment From john] with the GDP released now,what will happen to EUR/USD.IS IT UPTREND OR DOWNTREND

2:07	FXstreet.com:  Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex.

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2:08	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The GDP data by itself has not given the markets much new direction. The EUR/USD if you look from JUne 9th onward is in a period of consolidation as traders try to figure out which way the next trend will be.

2:10

Nick Nasad - CMS:  set up a horizontal line of resistance at 1.4130, and an upward sloping line of support connecting the lows from June 16th and June 23rd to capture the recent price action. how price behaves near that support and resistance will give you clues to where the next trend will be. A break of those lines would be a signal that the consolidation is over.

2:10	Nick Nasad - CMS:  ok, I have time for another question or two and then

2:11	[Comment From Guest] USDIX is well above the 21 DMA and looking to break it's recent highs 81.46 , will it do it so

2:11	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I would say that the greenback is currently at a crossroads. following its decline when equity markets were rallying between March-May, the greenback was boosted by a tempering of expectation of how

2:12	Nick Nasad - CMS:  quickly the global economy will recover, and speculation that better readings from the US economy could lead to a hike from teh Feds on interest rates earlier than initiall expected.

2:14

Nick Nasad - CMS:  that has given the greenback some strength and the FOMC meeting yesterday confirmed as much. If the data continues to push this theme, that the US economy could see positive growth in the summer or fall, and that the Fed will move to raise interest rates, the greenback has a good chance of conintuing its rally.

2:15	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I think that's a good point to leave of on as that is the main theme that shoudl be driving markets in the next couple of weeks.

2:16	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I hope you enjoyed my analysis, and thank you very much for your questions, comments and participation in the event.

2:16	[Comment From Mungo] Cheers

2:16	FXstreet.com:  We don't have more time today, Nick many thanks for your participation and I hope to see you next week for the NFP Live Coverage.

2:16

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2:17	Nick Nasad - CMS:  thank you once again everyone

2:17	[Comment From Guest] thank you nick !

2:17	FXstreet.com:  Also thanks to all of you for your participation and to CMS Forex for being today's sponsor.

2:17	Nick Nasad - CMS:  goodbye everyone, it was a pleasure.

2:17

FXstreet.com:  FXstreet.com organizes this year again the International Traders Conference 2009 – October 14-16 - Barcelona (Spain) Book your seat before it's too late... This year seats are limited to 60! Don't wait too much! Confirmed speakers so far are James Chen, Valeria Bednarik, Markus Heitkoetter, Ashraf Laidi, Andrei Pehar and Rob Booker! One more speaker to be confirmed soon!

2:18	FXstreet.com:  Visit www.traders-conference.com

2:18	FXstreet.com:  See you next THURSDAY for the NFP Coverage!

2:19	[Comment From Guest] Thank you Nick ! see you!

2:24

Live Coverage: Fed Interest Rate Decision

FED Interest Rates Decission Live Coverage with Nick Nasad

(06/24/2009)

  

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6:55

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6:57

FXstreet.com:  Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's Fed Interest Rates Decison will start in 5 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Nick Nasad who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. He will be giving us a direct picture for the market status.

6:57

FXstreet.com:  Nick Nasad is a currency market analyst with CMS Forex for the last 3 years. He closely monitors fundamental releases and reports their results and provides commentary to the company's clients through CMS Forex's interactive economic calendar Forex Capsule and through daily Forex market video recaps. He has also written extensive educational material on using technical analysis in trading Forex.

6:57	FXstreet.com:  I am pleased to announce you that today’s sponsor is CMS Forex.

6:57	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Hello everyone, and thank you fxstreet for having me on again

6:57	[Comment From DUKUN FOREX] Hello

6:58	[Comment From nisar] what do u think about the rate of

6:59

Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Fed is getting ready to close out its meeting today, and it will be an interesting tight rope that policymakers are trying to achieve. On the one hand, they want to show that the economy is improving, at the other hand they want to temper expectations of an interest rate increase in the coming months

7:00	Nick Nasad - CMS:  It seems that this is the consensus in the financial media, and so investors and traders will be looking for other clues, including any mentions of the quantitative easing programs that the Fed is currently conducting.

7:01	Nick Nasad - CMS:  that means, any mentions of its $300 billion plan to buy Treasuries.

7:01	Nick Nasad - CMS:  ok, lets take a poll of your expectations

7:02	FXstreet.com:  And what do you think about today's rates decission? Please, vote the poll!

7:02	Will the FOMC keep the benchmark rates? Yes, the FOMC will hold the ongoing rates  ( 83% ) No, they will hike it 25bps to 0.50%  ( 8% ) No, they will hike it by 50bps to 0.75%.  ( 3% ) No, they wiill hike it by 75bps to 1.00%  ( 0% ) No, they wiill hike it by 100bps to 1.25%  ( 6% )

7:03	[Comment From Ylberi] Hi Nick, I consider this period as consolidation, and expect no changes of interest rate for USD, following unchanged interest rate for EUR. What do you think, if the rate remains as it is now, will USD get stronger?

7:04	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The rate is likely to remain the same, and the fed may point a more upbeat picture about growth which could help the greenback.

7:05	Nick Nasad - CMS:  but if there is no new mention about the programs for Treasury and mortgage debt, then we may not see that big a reaction.

7:05	[Comment From arfan] what is gbp buyer expected form fed announcement ?

7:06

Nick Nasad - CMS:  The GBP/USD pair came up against strong resistance at the 1.66 level overnight, and receded from there. Looking at the month of June, you can see that its the third time that we have tested that level. The first time we had a strong move in favor of the greenback (beg of June), but the send test was followed by consolidation trading the past two weeks.

7:07	Nick Nasad - CMS:  We had another test of resistance overnight, and the important thing to look for is what happens at that level. We may see a return back to test the support level from the past 2 weeks (near 1.62) if the pair is not able to extend its gains from yesterday and overnight.

7:08	[Comment From INDIAN] Hi, Nasad ,how r u? what you expect EUR/USD after FED interest rates decission?

7:10	Nick Nasad - CMS:  At this point, it depends whats in the statement. If the Fed statement stresses that interest rates will remain low through 2009 it could pressure the greenback

7:10	Nick Nasad - CMS:  some of the greenback strength in the pair this month has been fed by the expectations that if the US returns to positive growth in the summer or fall, that the Fed will go ahead and hike rates.

7:11	Nick Nasad - CMS:  but, I doubt that Fed members will want to take such a course until the recovery is under way.

7:12	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we saw a very strong move in favor of the Euro yesterday, as risk sentiment improved from Monday's sell-off.

7:12	[Comment From Trader123] are we going to see 1.70 got the gbp/usd in the coming week?

7:13

Nick Nasad - CMS:  Following the run up in the GBP/USD from early March to the beginnign of June, this month has been one of consolidation. It may take time for investors and traders to break out of these ranges. Like I told the other questioner before, you will have to watch what happens at the 1.66 level in the coming sessions and week(s).

7:16

Nick Nasad - CMS:  those 1.70 is a nice whole number, looking at a long term picture, (daily chart), 1.75 is more a visual resistance as it acted as support then turned resistance in October, and has not yet been retested. But again, in ranging conditions, you have to wait for a break-out of resistance.

7:16	[Comment From Guest] So dollar can only strengthen or remain the same .. is there any chance of dollar weakening?

7:16	[Comment From Guest] if they say that they will keep rayes steady at least in 2009, that will be reason enough for a usd selloff?

7:17	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I think the more adamant the FED statement is in that regard (holding rates low for longer) the more chance the greenback weakens.

7:18	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we have also had a 61.856 retracement of the upmove in the EUR/USD since yesterday low to today's high.

7:18	[Comment From INDIAN] what is GREEN BACK, u mean?

7:18	Nick Nasad - CMS:  greenback is another way to refer to the US Dollar.

7:19	[Comment From arfan] how about inflation issue nick ? any comment how it affected to GBP ?

7:19	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the greenback is gaining now against its rivals,.. FED holds rates steady.

7:20	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the initial reaction is the greenback gaining on its rivals.

7:21	Nick Nasad - CMS:  looking at the statement now.

7:21	Nick Nasad - CMS:  http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20090624a.htm

7:21	FXstreet.com:  Rates on hold!

7:22

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7:22	Nick Nasad - CMS:  "The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period."

7:22

Nick Nasad - CMS:  "As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn."

7:23	Nick Nasad - CMS:  this is a reiteration of their previous commitments

7:24

Nick Nasad - CMS:  the beginning paragraph of the statement is a balance that says even though conditions are still difficult for households and businesses, that the pace of contraction is slowing, financial markets have improved, and that business are bringing inventory stocks back in line with sales..

7:25	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the move in favor of the greenback is then most likely a response to the FOMC nod to economic improvement.

7:25	[Comment From INDIAN] what u mean about that statement, could u plz tell usd gain or not?

7:25	[Comment From EMEKA] please...is this good or bad news short term?

7:26

Nick Nasad - CMS:  its a mix of both for the greenback, and why you are not seeing strong moves in either direction. basically, the Fed has said it will keep rates low and its purchasing programs in place (2 things that are greenback negative), but also said that the economy is improving (dollar positive).,

7:27	Nick Nasad - CMS:  those two factors are now being played out between dollar's bulls and bears, with the bias prior to the meeting in favor of the greenback.

7:28	Nick Nasad - CMS:  directly after the release we hit new intra-day lows in teh EUR/USD and GBP/USD, as well as intra-day highs in the USD/JPY and USD/CAD, so right now the interpretation is dollar strength.

7:29	[Comment From EMEKA] like you said....a steady would not affect the market but the statement would ....right?

7:30	Nick Nasad - CMS:  yes, its seems that the statement has given the markets something to work with, with the overall reaction of greenback strength.

7:31	[Comment From mike] has the usdchf bottomed with the SNB intervention??

7:31	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Mike, the EUR/CHF was definetly a big mover today, and the 1.50 level seems like the line in the sand for the SNB

7:32	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I think they will continue to intervene as they feel that an appreciation of the Franc will lead to deflation pressures.

7:33	Nick Nasad - CMS:  if you compare the rumored intervention on June 18th to today's you can see the SNB was much mroe aggressive.

7:33	Nick Nasad - CMS:  US stocks are dipping lower, paring gains from earlier in the morning, which is also adding to greenback strength

7:34	[Comment From Guest] dear Nick , as you can see today there was a big jump in USD/CHF do you think the gain will continue ??

7:34	Nick Nasad - CMS:  i hope my answer above answered you as well.

7:34	[Comment From shariq] Hi Nick , could you give your view on eur/gbp

7:35	Nick Nasad - CMS:  greenback gains are extending, as Dow Jones index falls into negative territory.

7:36

Nick Nasad - CMS:  the Euro-Pound may be forming ranging conditions between 0.86 and 0.84. The pound gained today as bank stocks rose in London, which helped boost risk appetite for the Pound there. The Pound has made significant gains on the Euro the pasta several months, and it may be time for this pair to see some sideways consolidation movement.

7:39	Nick Nasad - CMS:  another not from the statement is that compared to the last meeting, the Fed has eased its language regarding the risks of deflation.

7:41

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7:41	Nick Nasad - CMS:  another reason the greenback is gaining is that there were some expectations that the Fed may want to step up its purchases of Treasuries (in an attempt to lower mortgage rates). They kept to their original timetable..

7:42	[Comment From arfan] is the news bad for stock market, nick?

7:44

Nick Nasad - CMS:  despite the better view of the economy, and the fact deflation concerns have seemed to recede, without direct mention that inflation is now a major concern, stocks may be responding to the lack of addition plans to stimulate credit markets or Treasury markets. Also, stocks were falling before hand after posting big gains in the morning.

7:44	[Comment From Ashish Patel] What is your view on JPY/USD?

7:46	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Dollar-Yen seems to be in a downtrend since hitting a high near 99 a couple of weeks ago. On the other hand we have very strong support at the 94 level. In a shorter look connecting the recent major highs since June 14th's high of 98.50, today's move tested that resistance.

7:48	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The action this week may be a pause in the downmove seen since June 14th. Right now we are also testing a slightly upward sloping support turned resistance level from last Thursday/Monday

7:49	Nick Nasad - CMS:  seems like the recent greenback gains may be short lived, but this pair has to be monitored to see how it reacts at those different trendline levels.

7:49	[Comment From FX Guy] Hey Nick, do you think there's any chances of this USD strength carrying on for the rest of the week?

7:52

Nick Nasad - CMS:  hard to say. It depends on the pair. Certain pairs like the GBP/USD and USD/JPY may continue to consolidate, while the action in the EUR/USD the past two sessions shows more volatility, though no clear indication of which way the pair may go next. Instead, investor sentiments will be key in driving markets the rest of the week.

7:53	Nick Nasad - CMS:  There's not that much in the way of fundamental news the rest of this week as well.,

7:53	[Comment From Guest] but they said they diont have a line. strategy to take out stops from eur/chf bears?

7:55	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Though they havn't said it, since beginning their intervention in March, the pair has not moved below 1.50, and the move last Thursday and today leads analysts to believe that that really is the level they are targeting.

7:56	[Comment From Anthony] Which are the critical EURUSD resistance levels now?

7:56

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7:57	FXstreet.com:  Today's Live Coverage is sponsored bu CMS Forex

7:57

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7:57	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we saw last week that the 1.40 level was important resistance, but it was broken yesterday. above that look for today's high.

7:58	[Comment From Tarun] hey hi nick, when can we confirm a trend change in EUR/USD and GBP/USD ? do we need to wait for US GDP for tomorrow ?

8:00

Nick Nasad - CMS:  for the EUR/USD yesterday's break of a downward sloping line of restisnce, adn the move above 1.40, which had been acting as resistance, along with a higher major low can point to the end of the downmove since June started. However, today's strong gains for the greenback makes me cautious. if there is a test of the upward sloping line of support connecting those two major lows, its importnat to see how traders react there.

8:01	Nick Nasad - CMS:  for the GBP/USD look for the pair to break either resistance at 1.66, or support at 1.62.. Otherwise this pair is trading in a sideways range.

8:01	[Comment From Ashish Patel] Based on FED statement do you believe that it is more likely that FED increase the interest rate is last Querter of 09? If so will USD keep gaining compared to Euro?

8:03

Nick Nasad - CMS:  It hard to gauge from their language alone, which remains the same as last statement. what to look for next is the fundamental data coming out regarding the health of the economy as well as inflation. If core inflation begins creeping up that may force the Fed's hand, otherwise they would like to see housing stabilize, a pickup in consumer spending, and that financial markets remains supported.

8:04	Nick Nasad - CMS:  ok, the next question will be my last,

8:04	[Comment From kabby] what do you think wilhappen to the commodity market in the phase of things and considering what the FED said in the statement today

8:07

Nick Nasad - CMS:  commodity markets will depend more on growth in emerging economies as China and others will begin showing growth faster than the developed economies. The Fed statement sees the US economy beginning to come around, so we can expect commodity prices to go higher as the global economy recovers. once safe-haven demand for the greenback dissipates, and if inflation becomes a major concern, then gold may see a strong rally,

8:08	Nick Nasad - CMS:  OK, everyone, thank you for your questions and comments.

8:09	FXstreet.com:  We have no more time today, Nick any final word?

8:09

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8:10

Nick Nasad - CMS:  Though the Fed statement stuck close to its wording from last month in regards to its purchase plans, the nod to an uptick in the economy, and easing of the deflation fears helped boost the greenback in the wake of the release. We shall see if these gains and dollar strength persist during the rest of the week.

8:11	FXstreet.com:  Many thanks Nick and Thanks for our audience participation too. Today's event has been sponsored by CMS Forex

8:11

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8:11	Nick Nasad - CMS:  goodbye everyone

8:12	FXstreet.com:  I Hope to see you all in tomorrow's GDP Live Coverage from FXstreet.com homepage. See you Tomorrow!

8:13

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