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10/18/2005

Fundamental Analysis Techniques

Date: October 18, 2005 14:00GMT 10EST

Expert: Francois Nembrini, Managing director of FXCM, London

Topics:
- What influences prices in the currencies market?
- How does fundamental analysis explain long term trends?
- How does fundamental analysis explain short term trends?
- Currency Pairs

Who is Francois Nembrini?
Francois Nembrini is responsible for FXCM retail and institutional sales in Europe. Prior to assuming his current position, he worked at FXCM, LLC, in New York in the System Trading department as manager. There he helped develop trading systems on the major currency pairs and crosses. He received a BA in international business from the American University in Paris.

Speech Material:

What influences prices in the currencies market?
Prices in the currencies market are affected only by macroeconomic factors, such as inflation, unemployment, and industrial production. Information on events such as these is easy to find and based on their analysis of the economic data, traders take positions on the market to make profit.
• There are three main macroeconomic factors a trader should focus on when analyzing foreign exchange rates:
• Each currency has an overnight lending rate attached to it at the country's interest rate which is determined by the central bank of the country. Lower interest rates usually lead to a depression in the value of the country's currency.

This is largely due to traders who execute carry-trades. A carry-trade is a trade where a currency with a low interest rate is sold and a currency with a high interest is bought. This is based on the idea that currencies with higher interest rates will generally rise in value, and currencies with higher interests will rollover and allow trades to earn interest on a daily basis.

An example of this would be the decline of the interest rate in the United States imposed by the Federal Reserve. From June to December 2001, the interest rate declined from 3.75% to 1.75%. This caused huge depreciation of the USD against the Euro, causing the EUR/USD pair to rise to an unheard rate (at the time) of 0.9975.
• A country's unemployment rate is a key indicator of its economic strength. If a country has a high unemployment rate, it means its economy is not strong enough to provide people with jobs, and thus, leads to a decline in the currency value.

The decline of the dollar against the Euro in the previous example was not only due to interest rates, but also unemployment rates. From 2000 to 2003, the unemployment rate steadily rose from 4.0% to 6.5%, contributing to the steady decline of the dollar.

Geopolitical events are key international political events. These events affect not only the foreign exchange market, but all other markets as well.

A prime example of this would be the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001. After these terrorist attacks, many investors pulled money out of US markets because they feared another terrorist attack, causing a decline in the value of the dollar.

Click to enlarge:

Francois1

This graph illustrates the rise of the Euro against the US dollar in the last three years. The affects of geopolitical events, decreasing interest rates and increasing unemployment cause a decline in the dollar.

How does fundamental analysis explain long term trends?
Fundamental analysis is very useful for determining long-term trends within a currency pair. By focusing on long term economic factors that affect countries, fundamental analysis predicts long term trends. For example, the rising unemployment rates and deficit combined with declining interest rates in the US led to an upward trend in the EUR/USD which has been going on since 2002

Click to enlarge:

Francois2

This graph shows the long term upward trend of the EUR/USD over the past three years, which is composed of smaller trends.

How does fundamental analysis explain short term trends?
Fundamental analysis can also explain short term trends. By keeping up to date with economic data, rumors, and news, a fundamentalist can better forecast short term trends since these are all factors that affect currency pricing. For example, the USD/JPY stayed high throughout May 2003 due to fears of intervention by the Bank of Japan. Another example is when the European Central Bank stated that the dollar would inevitably fall, causing the EUR/USD to rally 200 pips on October 6, 2003.

Click to enlarge:

Francois3

Short term rally of about 250 pips lasting 3 days
10/01/03
This graph depicting the EUR/USD rate in October 2003, graphically shows the effect the European Central Bank had when they predicted the dollar would fall. The Euro rallies against the dollar, resulting in a short term trend.

Currency Descriptions:

EUR/USD

• Dollar weakness drives EUR/USD higher
• US recovery and strong influx of foreign demand will send EUR/USD lower

If, for example, you think the U.S. economy will continue to worsen and that will hurt the USD, you click on BUY, which means that you are buying euros and expecting them to go up against the USD. If, for example, you think that there will be increased foreign demand for US assets such as equities and treasuries and that will benefit the USD, click on SELL, which means that you are buying U.S. dollars, expecting them to climb in value against the euro.

USD/JPY

• Japanese government intervention to weaken their currency sends USD/JPY higher
• Gains in Nikkei and demand for Japanese assets drive USD/JPY down

If, for example, you think that the Japanese government will continue to weaken the yen in order to help its export industry, you would click on BUY, expecting the U.S. dollar to increase in value against the yen. If you think that Japanese investors are pulling money out of U.S. financial markets and repatriating funds back into the Japanese asset markets, such as the Nikkei, you would click on SELL. This means that you expect the yen to strengthen against the U.S. dollar as Japanese investors sell their assets and convert their dollars back into yen.

GBP/USD

• High Yield and attractive growth in the UK drives GBP/USD higher
• Speculation about UK adopting the euro will send the GBP/USD lower

If, for example, you think the British economy will continue to benefit from its high yield and attractive growth, thus buoying the pound, you would click BUY, which means that you expect the British pound to strengthen against the U.S. dollar. If you believe the British are about to commit themselves to adopting the euro, you would click SELL, expecting the pound to weaken against the dollar as the British devalue their currency in anticipation of merging with the euro.

USD/CHF

• Global stability and global recovery will send USD/CHF higher
• USD/CHF rallies on geopolitical instability

If, for example, you think that the market is headed towards a period of global stability and economic recovery, meaning that investors no longer need to park their money in the safe haven currency, or Swiss franc, you would click BUY, expecting the U.S. dollar to strengthen against the Swiss franc. If you believe that due to instability in the Middle East and in U.S. financial markets, the dollar will continue to weaken, you would click SELL, expecting the Swiss franc to strengthen against the dollar.

EUR/CHF

• Swiss government uses verbal intervention to weaken the franc, sending EUR/CHF higher
• If inflation took off Germany and France it could drive EUR/CHF lower

If, for example, you think the Swiss government wishes to devalue the currency to help exports in Europe, you would click BUY, expecting the euro to increase in value against the Swiss franc. If inflation started taking off in Germany and France, you would click SELL expecting the Swiss franc to increase in value against a devalued euro.

AUD/USD

• Rising commodity prices sends AUD/USD higher
• Droughts hurts Australian economy and AUD/USD

If, for example, you think that commodity prices are going to rise dramatically, thus benefiting the AUD, you would click BUY, expecting the aussie to strengthen against the U.S. dollar due to Australia's status as one of the world's leading commodity exporters. If you believe that Australia will face another drought, hurting the domestic economy, you would click SELL, expecting the U.S. dollar to strengthen against the AUD.

USD/CAD

• Canadian economic underperformance against US sends USD/CAD higher
• Higher interest rates and rebounding labor market in Canada will help to drive USD/CAD lower

If, for example, you think that the U.S. economy is going to rebound while the Canadian economy goes into recession, you would click BUY, expecting the U.S. dollar to strengthen against the Canadian dollar. If you believe that the higher yields and rebounding labor market in Canada warrants a higher valuation for the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar, you would click SELL, expecting the CAD to rise against the U.S. dollar.

NZD/USD

• Increased tourism and migration into New Zealand drives the NZD/USD higher
• Weakness in the Australian dollar sends the NZD/USD lower

If, for example, you think the success of Lord of the Rings will cause tourists to flock to New Zealand and pump money into the local economy, you would click BUY, expecting the NZD to strengthen in value against the U.S. dollar. The New Zealand dollar has a strong positive correlation with the Australian dollar, so if you expect falling commodity prices to drive the AUD lower, you would click SELL expecting the NZD to drop in value against the U.S. dollar.

Session Transcript:

FXStreet Moderator (Oct 18, 2005 10:10:45 AM)

Today I am delighted to welcome our good friend and guest speaker Francois Nembrini of FXCM

FXStreet Moderator (Oct 18, 2005 10:10:58 AM)
Our next guest on the panel today is the managing director of FXCM, Ltd., in London. He is responsible for FXCM retail and institutional sales in Europe. Prior to assuming his current position, he worked at FXCM, LLC, in New York in the System Trading department as manager. There he helped develop trading systems on the major currency pairs and crosses.

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:12:08 AM)
hi everyone

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:14:43 AM)
I work with Kathy, Boris and Sam

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:14:55 AM)
who are regulars with FX street I believe

FXStreet Moderator (Oct 18, 2005 10:15:16 AM)
Thank you very much for that

FXStreet Moderator (Oct 18, 2005 10:15:31 AM)
ok lets begin with LIVE questions straightaway..

FXStreet Moderator (Oct 18, 2005 10:15:38 AM)
Start posting now..

JSB (Oct 18, 2005 10:16:01 AM)
With regard to USD/CHF does decline in USA growth trump interest rate differentials?

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:16:26 AM)
the general assumption

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:16:35 AM)
is that when money is cheap (IR low)

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:16:43 AM)
growth is easier

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:17:26 AM)
so generally high IR are going to go against growth

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:17:50 AM)
CHF is a safety currency

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:18:13 AM)
so when situation is good worldwide

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:18:23 AM)
chf tend to be weaker

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:18:33 AM)
when growth is present

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:18:43 AM)
people take money out of CHF to invest it

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:19:21 AM)
I am not sure I fully catch the question

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:19:28 AM)
but I guess this answers it

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:19:31 AM)
let me know if it does not

Guest (Oct 18, 2005 10:19:48 AM)
i wanna know is the EUR gojng up against the USD?

FXStreet Moderator (Oct 18, 2005 10:20:05 AM)
i wanna know is the EUR gojng up against the USD? Hani

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:20:21 AM)
quite an easy

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:20:23 AM)
one

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:20:30 AM)
look at a chart....

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:20:40 AM)
USD is extremely strong lately

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:20:50 AM)
and EURUSD is clearly in a downtrend

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:20:56 AM)
as you all know

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:21:02 AM)
trend is your friend

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:21:13 AM)
and there are only 3 options when there is a trend

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:21:23 AM)
stay flat

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:21:26 AM)
buyt a little

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:21:34 AM)
or buy a lot

Jack1 (Oct 18, 2005 10:22:25 AM)
what are the major macroeconomic factors affected currency movement? How do we find which factors has a role at any given time? eg. which factors for eur/usd pair at moment?

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:22:47 AM)
to summarize

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:22:57 AM)
you have capital flows (equities - bonds etc)

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:23:20 AM)
physical flows (direct investment - import export)

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:23:45 AM)
so you need to watch thes factors and their evolution in time

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:24:10 AM)
what matters are flows not numbers (differential in figures if you prefer)

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:25:02 AM)
all this is influenced by growth (you want to buy what is appreciating)

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:25:19 AM)
deficits (higher deficits - more risks etc...)

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:25:30 AM)
inflation etc...

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:25:55 AM)
factors are alwasy the same

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:26:06 AM)
but they move marets for the long term

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:26:13 AM)
as far as short term movements

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:26:30 AM)
traders will tend to focus on different economic releases

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:26:43 AM)
it is more a trend than anything else

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:26:52 AM)
NFP seems to be popular lately

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:27:02 AM)
might be something else later

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:27:14 AM)
I would totally discount all this

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:27:19 AM)
unless you intend to trade news

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:27:31 AM)
eur/usd

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:27:47 AM)
is particularly sensitive to the political situation in europe

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:28:19 AM)
and US economy trade balance and employment numbers

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:28:39 AM)
once again these are just trends followed by market participants

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:28:50 AM)
does not mean numbers are specifically important

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:29:10 AM)
uS had a colossal debt beofre for instance

fixer (Oct 18, 2005 10:29:59 AM)
is the current usdjpy and gbpjpy upmove a seasonal one?

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:30:20 AM)
there are some repatriation in capital

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:30:29 AM)
to Japan (bullish yen)

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:30:35 AM)
towards the end of the year

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:30:49 AM)
and start of the year (march)

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:31:07 AM)
but this is just a small factor in the overall USD - JPY flow

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:31:14 AM)
right now there is a trend

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:31:29 AM)
and yen is particularly waek

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:31:41 AM)
I would not try to play this seasonal movements

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:31:58 AM)
unless the market truly change direction

Forrest (Oct 18, 2005 10:34:59 AM)
any thoughts on the TIC data causing a possible breach of the 1.19? EUR/USD

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:35:23 AM)
first I want to say that economic stats are mostly unreliable

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:35:32 AM)
on an individual basis

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:35:51 AM)
so one individual number above or below expectations

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:36:06 AM)
will just give a quick boost to the market

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:36:17 AM)
TIC was USD positive

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:36:27 AM)
but market was overextended for the day

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:36:35 AM)
so we did not break 1.19

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:36:54 AM)
if we stay here for today

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:37:06 AM)
my guess is that we will at least test below 1.19

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:37:16 AM)
bankers love to take out stops

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:37:31 AM)
and we probably have a lot of them below the level

Lelio (Oct 18, 2005 10:37:48 AM)
usdcad is in a straight dowtrend since 2002. Since both countries are expected to keep raising rates, how do you see this pair in 2006 ? Is the down trend likely to continue ?

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:38:15 AM)
Cad got a boost because of oil prices

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:38:29 AM)
canada is in fact the first exporter to the US

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:38:45 AM)
(saudi is not that important to the us contray to public opinion)

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:39:01 AM)
problem now is that USD is a strong uptrend

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:39:08 AM)
I would basically stay neutral on the pair

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:39:19 AM)
as both currencies are quite strong

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:39:25 AM)
if you want too play cad

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:39:38 AM)
I would look at CADJPY (really got piece by Kathy about this)

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:39:48 AM)
or cad against EZ currencies

hastings (Oct 18, 2005 10:40:45 AM)
Hi Francois....Do you think that the situation in the USA may resemble General Motors where bonds become junk overnight and surprise everyone...meaning rates in the US are very high vs Europe or Japan because they need to attract capital to sustain whatever growth they have? In this scenerio it inevitable that rates around the world are going to have increase least the US gets all the investible capital. I could borrow in Euope at 2 percent and put it into bonds in the US at 5? Is that enough of a good reason?

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:41:10 AM)
GM is an individual company

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:41:20 AM)
nothing in comparison to the US economy

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:41:26 AM)
there are some issues with the US

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:41:44 AM)
but it is still the strongest economy in the world and by far

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:42:07 AM)
the US will probably never need to increase rates to unmanageable rates

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:42:39 AM)
a default or problem for the US to find funds would create a massive shock in the world economy

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:42:50 AM)
and would probably drag everyone down

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:43:03 AM)
this is unlikely to happen

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:43:28 AM)
because the USD is tsill the world dominant currency (lot of goods are prioced in USD)

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:43:45 AM)
and please remember that rates are historically low

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:44:02 AM)
we had rates at 6% and bove for extensive periods of time in the US

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:44:49 AM)
I owuld not worry about this doomsday scenario but it might be interesting to see what happens if it ever does

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:44:52 AM)
finally

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:45:04 AM)
what you are referring to is the carry trade

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:45:05 AM)
and yes

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:45:14 AM)
why would you leave your money in europe

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:45:30 AM)
to get a low 2% when you can get much more in the us

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:45:42 AM)
in a better capital market with a currency appreciating

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:45:48 AM)
this factor is one of the reason

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:45:58 AM)
why the euro is falling

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:46:08 AM)
if you were here since the beginning

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:46:23 AM)
this is a typical case of capital flows (bonds here)

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:46:31 AM)
which is strengtening the USD

Forrest (Oct 18, 2005 10:46:51 AM)
looking at the "cause" of the downtrend in the EUR$ - in your opinion what are the biggest contributing economic factors?

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:47:06 AM)
Interest rate is the major factor for now

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:47:23 AM)
and the fact that the european are meesing around with their max debts allowed

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:47:42 AM)
the germans do not have a government which will be able to take reforms

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:47:44 AM)
etc...

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:48:03 AM)
all of this is bad news for the euro

Forrest (Oct 18, 2005 10:48:35 AM)
so on a carry trade - why the dollar - when the Kiwi pays so much and the yen charges nothing?

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:48:52 AM)
institutionnal money need to be able to park

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:49:00 AM)
in wide spaces

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:49:12 AM)
the NZD bond market is just too small

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:49:22 AM)
for soros type investors

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:49:33 AM)
+ currency risk is much higher

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:49:39 AM)
country risk sorry

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:49:51 AM)
so yes

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:50:05 AM)
limited NZDJPY might be a better trade than USDJPY

f326 (Oct 18, 2005 10:51:31 AM)
When the $ was declining, a pundit noted that the only reason why we currently were able to do this is because banks held our currency in reserve. However, if int'l banks sold off our currency and replaced their reserve currency with another favorite such as the euro, the US could wake up to have its currency worth that of a third world country. Do you agree?

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:52:02 AM)
once again

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:52:15 AM)
theory is right but practice is different

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:52:26 AM)
central banks will not drop the usd like that

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:52:37 AM)
actually there was a lot of talk about it

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:52:46 AM)
but in fact

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:52:57 AM)
numbers are actually quite surprinsing

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:53:11 AM)
and most central banks

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:53:19 AM)
actually increased their usd exposure

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:53:24 AM)
when euro was rising

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:53:31 AM)
only few of them really changed to euro

FXStreet Moderator (Oct 18, 2005 10:54:04 AM)
Last question:

jaweed (Oct 18, 2005 10:54:10 AM)
Currently the US is raising rates thus this is a reason for the currency to strenghten. However the Fed will eventually stop raising interest rates be it at 4, 4.5, 5 or even higher. My question is generally what is the time lag between a currency reaching the top of the interest rate cycle and the weakening of the currency.

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:54:34 AM)
fed rates are in fact useless

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:54:38 AM)
by themselves

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:54:49 AM)
fed is just giving direction to the market

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:55:00 AM)
you need to watch bond spreads

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:55:07 AM)
to see where the market is going

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:55:21 AM)
I personnally watch the 3 month Libor

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:55:51 AM)
as ST maturities give good idea of where money goes in the short term

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:56:15 AM)
alright

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:56:20 AM)
we are done apparently

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:56:26 AM)
so if you have questions

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:56:33 AM)
do not hesitate to go to dailyfx

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:56:41 AM)
and ask questions to our staff there

Francois (Oct 18, 2005 10:57:02 AM)
good luck with your trading!

FXStreet Moderator (Oct 18, 2005 10:58:38 AM)
Thank you very much for that Francois..

FXStreet Moderator (Oct 18, 2005 10:58:56 AM)
If your question was not answered during the course of this chat, please contact Francois

FXStreet Moderator (Oct 18, 2005 10:59:08 AM)
FXCM - Francois Nembrini

FXStreet Moderator (Oct 18, 2005 11:00:41 AM)
FOREX SHOWROOM @ FXstreet.com

FXStreet Moderator (Oct 18, 2005 11:00:50 AM)
How to Build a Winning FOREX Trading System

FXStreet Moderator (Oct 18, 2005 11:00:58 AM)
Reading Automatic Alpha guarantees a trader will have that system almost immediately Presented by: David J. Lyder / Co-founder of iExpertAdvisor, LLC, Author of Automatic Alpha

FXStreet Moderator (Oct 18, 2005 11:01:10 AM)
Tomorrow @ 15:30GMT 11:30EST

FXStreet Moderator (Oct 18, 2005 11:01:19 AM)
http://www.fxstreet.com/chat/showroom/session.asp?id=31

FXStreet Moderator (Oct 18, 2005 11:02:09 AM)
• Transcript request: • Link: http://www.fxstreet.com/chat/transcriptrequest.asp • Password: Nembrini179179 • Once inside the transcript request page, follow the instructions

FXStreet Moderator (Oct 18, 2005 11:02:25 AM)
Transcripts will no longer be available as of Novemver 1st

FXStreet Moderator (Oct 18, 2005 11:02:30 AM)
Premium members only

FXStreet Moderator (Oct 18, 2005 11:03:12 AM)
See you tomorrow Technical Viewpoint of the EUR/USD

FXStreet Moderator (Oct 18, 2005 11:03:30 AM)
Expert: Justin Strausbaugh, Currency Analyst CMC Markets

FXStreet Moderator (Oct 18, 2005 11:03:57 AM)
Thank you all

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