FXstreet.com Live Sessions Archives

FOREX REALITY, can you or can’t you actually win 100% profit in a single year

Expert:  Bernardo A. Martinez Garza, Founding director of Nexum Capital Markets 
Start:    January 31, 2006 - 15:00GMT 10EST 
End:      approx. 16:00GMT 11EST 

Topics that will be covered for above session are: 

• Everyone can earn 10% profit in a month, even in a day or two, but can they keep on earning?
• Is it just luck or is it technique?
• Techniques to maintain your profits and forget about losses
• Mental actions that will improve your thinking, and make you cash in profit

Who is Bernardo A. Martinez Garza?

Bernardo A. Martinez Garza is the founding director of NEXUM CAPITAL MARKETS in Mexico, founded in 2005 for clients services that wish to learn how to trade FOREX and become themselves into mature and expert traders, by the hand with our company, we help all our clients to know and learn every different angle into the market and how to take advantage to the maximum power of all opportunitites the markets brings us. As a Financiall Consulting Manager in Latin America, our company started off in 1995, with the sole objective to give over 35% annual profits to all our clients, no matter how big or small they might be, basing their principals to their higher standard, mostly into FOREX Markets. As owner of a National Restaurant Franchise as well, Bernardo Martinez has a wide vision and knows where the market will be following the economic fundamentals, as well as the general consumer public, opportunity areas, and growth potential, as well as possible changes in monetary policy.

Speech Material:

Winning 100% in a single year is actually simple.

Not easy, but simple.

Suppose you start off from scratch, you start on your own investment opportunity, wherever that is, whether it is in FOREX, a Bank, a HEDGE FUND, MERYLLYNCH, NEXUM, etc.

Have you ever wondered what are the steps you need to earn your first $1Million USD?  It is actually something everyone needs to do.  I am sure all of us know at least one single person close to us that has earned more than $1Million USD and they keep on cashing in.  what makes you so different from them?  Do they actually have a different plan than yours?  NO.  you actually have the same feelings, thoughs, emotions and goals.  Only one of you two decided to take action right away and noticed the 3 simple ingredients you need to become a millionaire.

The only 3 things everyone needs to become a millionaire are the following: Income, Time & Discipline.

Probably most of us already have the first two of them, Income and Time; what we almost all lack is a hole bunch of discipline!

Suppose once more you start off from scratch, and take $500usd each month and place it into any sinlge investment tool you like… YES, ANY TOOL YOU LIKE!!! It doesn’t matter if it is FOREX, EQUITIES, a particular HEDGE FUND such as NEXUMSYS, etc.

If you KEEP adding $500 usd each month, you will have at the end of 10years $102,000usd.  After 20years $380,000usd. And After 30years $1.1MILLION USD!!!

Now is that so hard to achieve?  And that is only supposing the investment tool you place your money earns only 10% interest compounded per year!!!  Now if you consider investing in something more “risky” like a hedge fund, you could actually earn about 30-50% annual compounded income a year! And of course, maybe a year or two you might end up loosing, but take the long run, take a bit of discipline and you have yourself a winning long race horse in your back yard, the only thing you have to do is take it to the races! What do you have to loose? 500 bucs a month? COME ON!!!

And now im going to let you know the second most important thing about investing:

“YOU HAVE NO EXCUSE NOT TO DO IT RIGHT AWAY!”

Everyone can win 10% profit in a month, even in a day or two, but can they keep on winning?
Companies that promise you earning of 100% in a month are surely FULL OF IT!  NEXUM is one of the top IB’s in Latinamerica and we have been awarded best trader for 2005.  we only made 71% in the whole year!  So you make the math, if there is no one better than us in Latinamerica, and we made less than 100% profit in 2005, how can someone else gain 100% in a single month? Maybe they actually did, but ended up losing everything next month.  Lets try to make a diference between meer luck and a trustworthy hedge fund.

Is it just luck or is it technique?
Every single day we invest in FOREX market is is more and more clear to us that Luck has nothing to do with becoming a profitable trader.  Discipline and emotional conjunture are key elements to becoming a star trader, and luck and card reading has nothing to do with anything in this aggressive and competitive market moving more than $1.9TRILLION dlls per DAY.

Techniques to maintain your profits and forget about losses
Probably the only technique to maitain your profits and forget about your losses is never to place a stop loss. So no, there is no sure bet against never losing, and a trader who says he has never lost is absolutely wrong and they should belong in jail… or at the local circus.

Mental actions that will improve your thinking, and make you cash in profits
ONE SINGLE WORD FOR THIS: 

D I S C I P L I N E

Derek Frey's FX weekly Outlook

Expert: Derek Frey, Head Trader of Odom & Frey Futures & Options
Start:   January 30, 2006 - 15:00GMT 10EST
End:     approx. 16:00GMT 11EST

Topics that will be covered for above session are:

• Do not miss your opportunity to be updated in your trading needs this week.
• Derek Frey brings his view point of the forex market for coming week.
• Discuss market reaction to news.
• Enjoy his currency pairs predictions.
• Must have Fxtrading information for a successful trading week

Who is Derek Frey?

Derek Frey has been a futures trader since 1989 and is Head Trader and partner at Odom & Frey Futures & Options, a firm that specializes in high probability, defined risk option spread trades for the futures markets. Derek is also co-author of O&F News & Views, a weekly newsletter that is published by several publications and over 20 financial websites including FXStreet.com

Speech material

Forex Currencies:

EUR/USD:
The Euro had a very strong week right up until Friday. Friday’s reversal is another example of why using trailing stops is key in these markets. The Euro could continue to correct this week but I think support will hold above 120.
USD/CHF:
I moved my stops down to 127 earlier in the week and then got stopped out there at a profit. I will look to short again around 128.75 this week with stops at 129.25 to start.
GBP/USD:
We got out at our objective of 179 and are now flat. I am working buy orders at 176 now with stops at 175.
USD/JPY:
Got filled on my buy stop at 115.78 this week and am still long. Target is at 118 and I am working a 75 pip trailing stop that is currently at 116.75 as of Fridays close.
AUD/USD:
Buy stop working at 75.77
USD/CAD:
Not quite stopped out yet. My stop is working at 114.25, and I do expect to be stopped out this coming week.

View Live Q&A Sessions Schedule

FXCM Live FX Analysis

Expert: Kathy Lien, Chief Currency Strategist of FXCM
Start: January 27, 2006 - 1400GMT 9EST
End: approx. 14:00GMT 10:EST

Topics that will be covered for above session are:

• Do not miss your opportunity to be updated in your trading needs this week.
• Kathy brings her view point of the forex market for coming week.
• Discuss market reaction to news.
• Enjoy his currency pairs predictions.
• Must have Fxtrading information for a succesful trading week

Who is Kathy Lien?

Kathy Lien is the Chief Currency Strategist at Forex Capital Markets. Kathy is responsible for providing research and analysis for DailyFX, including technical and fundamental research reports, market commentaries and trading strategies. A seasoned FX analyst and trader, prior to joining FXCM, Kathy was an Associate at JPMorgan Chase where she worked in Cross Markets and Foreign Exchange Trading. Kathy has vast experience within the interbank market using both technical and fundamental analysis to trade FX spot and options. She also has experience trading a number of products outside of FX, including interest rate derivatives, bonds, equities, and futures. She has a Bachelors degree in Finance from New York University. Kathy has written for Stocks and Commodities, CBS Market Watch, ActiveTrader, Futures and SFO Magazine. She is frequently quoted on Bloomberg and Reuters and has taught seminars across the country. She has also hosted trader chats on EliteTrader, eSignal, and FXStreet, sharing her expertise in both technical and fundamental analysis.

Speech Material:

- Is the Dollar's Rally Sustainable?

- Watch Out for Swiss Data Tomorrow

- Yen Continues Tumble on More Evidence that ZIRP is Here to Stay

Dollar:
As we had pointed out yesterday, durable goods came out stronger than expected, giving EUR/USD traders the green light to take a shot at 1.2150. For the third consecutive day, the dollar has reigned king thanks to a dose of good data, a strong rally in the stock market and optimism that Russia and Iran may have found a solution that could satisfy the US and EU in hopes of putting an end to the global stalemate over nuclear power.

The market has become increasingly convinced that the Fed will follow-up this month's rate hike with another one in March. Fed fund futures are now pricing in a 72 percent chance that we will see 4.75 percent rates on March 28th, which is up from a 50 percent chance last week. Even if this is true, we wonder how much optimism there really can be in the US dollar with the outlook for the US economy still murky.

Admittedly, durable goods and jobless claims were both stronger. Orders for durable goods increased 1.3 percent in the month of December following an upwardly revised 5.4 percent rise in the previous month. Orders excluding transportation were up 0.9 percent, just a bit shy of the market's 1.0 percent forecast. However, the revision from -0.6 percent to +0.6 percent in November more than made up for the difference. Jobless claims increased 11k to 283k, which was a smaller than expected rebound after last week's slide to 5 year lows.

On the flip side, the dollar's rally could face fierce resistance at the 1.2150 level as speculation for a Chinese New Year (this weekend) revaluation escalates with Senator Grassley threatening another sanction bill for China if they fail to make any more adjustments.

Click here to read more:

Euro:
The only piece of economic data released out of the Eurozone of any consequence today was the Italian trade balance, which increased by EUR129 million in the month of December. With the Euro's recent retracement, those hoping for a continued recovery in the Eurozone can finally breathe a sigh of relief. For the time being at 1.22, we are still sitting pretty, but at 1.25, all bets are off. There is virtually no possibility that the ECB would be willing to increase interest rates if the Euro was at 1.25. A rate hike at that currency value will only exacerbate the Euro's rally, pushing it towards 1.30 and putting the entire Eurozone recovery at risk. The ECB or any central bank for that matter would probably be too cautious to risk an already weak recovery.

Click here to read more:

British Pound:
There has been little action in the British pound today. The market has been fairly quiet with no economic data scheduled for release which confirms that the dollar's is what pounded the currency lower. Tomorrow, we are expecting the Nationwide house price report. There has been increasing evidence of stabilization in the sector, so there is no reason to expect otherwise. Comments from incoming Deputy Governor Gieve was of brief interest today. He refused to be labeled a hawk or dove, but judging from his responses to questioning, he may be siding with one more than the other. When asked about his view on higher oil and interest rates, he said that he was not sure whether higher interest rates were required since higher oil prices is negative for growth.

Japanese Yen:
The dollar continues to exhibit the greatest strength against the Japanese Yen. The merchandise trade surplus for the month of December increased from JPY597.3 billion to a less than expected JPY914 billion. On an annualized basis, the trade balance has fallen by close to 20 percent, but thankfully imports and exports have still shown a healthy improvement. Meanwhile, there was a great point made by Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers today. According to his report, he said that "a senior LDP official made an important comment that may prove to be very revealing. He reminded (the BOJ?) that the CPI index will change in August and the impact of this new measurement should be seen before a change in the BOJ stance. In the past it has been recognized that the Japanese measure may overstate consumer inflation. Past revisions have generally led to lower measured inflation." If this is the case, it is another reason to add to our laundry list of reasons why the BoJ will not be able to end their zero interest rate quantitative easing policy anytime soon.

Psychology of Trading

Expert:  Jerry Chin, Currency Analyst FXsolutions 
Start:    January 26, 2006 - 15:00GMT 10EST 
End:      approx. 16:00GMT 11:00EST 

Topics that will be covered for above session are: 

• The goal of day trading
• How psychology affects the market
• Can Psychology, more than ever, determine the success of a day trader?

Who is Jerry Chin?

Jerry Chin has over fours years of experience trading futures and forex. He is currently a currency dealer at FX Solutions. As a dealer, He has a lot of interaction with FXSolutions diverse trader clientele. Many of the traders I interact with are day traders. Prior to joining FX Solutions, I was a trader with Goldenberg, Heyehmeyer & Co. one of the largest clearing firms on the CBOT. He electronically day trades firm capital in US Treasury futures.Having had experience in the largest financial market in the world, and the most liquid respectively, He has a detailed knowledge of the markets and how to trade them on a short term basis, with a successful strategy.

Speech Material:

In this session of our continuing discussion on the psychology of trading, we will devote our attention to special topics in the psychology of day trading. Day trading is the opening and closing of positions within the same day. Since there is no opening and closing of the trading day in forex trading, day trading in forex can be defined as the opening and closing of positions within a short period of time. The goal of day trading is to capture small profits in the movement of the market. Day traders don’t look for a large macro move in their trading decisions. Day traders are looking to extract business profits from the movement in the market irregardless of the direction of the movement. Because of their focus on short term movements in the market, the day trader must focus on many psychological elements in trading that position traders normally do not encounter. Day traders need to focus on how psychology affects the market and on how psychology affects themselves. Psychology, more than ever, determines the success of a day trader, more than analysis, more than strategy.

The most important decision making factor for day trades, is market psychology. An understanding of when market participants will be buying and when they will be selling will be the point of focus for the day trader. A day trader will look to get long the market when he feels that a spate of buying will enter the market and will look to short the market when he feels that sellers are about to enter the market. Market psychology is what determines the timing of these decisions by market participants. Determining the psychology of the market is not a science, but an art. Surely there are generalizations for trying to analyze market psychology. After an upside surprise for the monthly USA non-farm payroll data, the dollar will be bought. But trees do not grow to the sky and dollar buyers will soon have their share of dollars. When is it a good time to get in on the buying and when is it a good time to sell the dollar again? The day trader needs to find a point where he thinks the market will satisfy his own greed and a point where his fear matches the fear level in the overall market.

Another generalization of market psychology is that as the market approaches a key technical level, there will be many participants looking to push the market over the test point. But this observation is not set in stone, and a trader’s experience and intuition are key factors in determining which side of the trade the trader will be. Sometimes the market will approach the key level and go through simply because the path of least resistance is the direction of the momentum. Sometimes the market will look at the technical level and not think it’s so key after all and pull the market back from that edge. And sometimes the market will approach key technical levels and sit in the doldrums because the market is confused about which direction to take. The psychology of the market is hard to determine since it is made up of all the individual psychologies of every market participant aggregated together. Experience and intuition will help a trader make decisions in such an ambiguous situation where there are so many factors to the point that the only thing a day trader can focus on is himself. This is why we need to focus on personal psychology to help us become successful in the brutal arena of day trading.
Confidence in one’s own abilities is crucial to success in day trading. Due to the speed involved in the decisions required in day trading, a single moment of indecision may prove fatal to a day trader.

Confidence in one’s own decisions will allow one to implement those decisions quickly. When trades are executed quickly, one has more opportunities to participate in the market and hopefully catch a good trade. But confidence must not lead to stubbornness or hubris. Confidence in ones abilities and decisions does not mean ignoring evidence to the contrary. Traders will be wrong more often than not, and since day traders participate in the market constantly, day traders will be even MORE wrong often than not. To protect yourself from all those inevitably wrong decisions, a day trader must have the ability to admit defeat and exit losing trades. The recognition that no one man is smarter or more powerful than the entire wave of the market is crucial to surviving a day trading atmosphere. Since the goal of most day trading is to extract small profits from the volatility in the market, one must not absorb one huge loss for every small profit. Keeping the profit and loss ratio close to even is analogous to keeping one’s confidence to hubris ratio in check.

Day trading requires an intense and singular focus on the market. You must be prepared to block out all distractions from your mind and pay attention to every single pip movement of the market for extended periods of time, sometimes lasting for several continuous hours at a time. It is the same type of intense focus that professional athletes maintain. They must block out the distractions of family, crowds, and the media to sink a crucial golf put. The day trader must also mentally and physically block out all the distractions of life to concentrate on looking for the trading opportunities he knows are out there in the market.

Due to the day trading strategy of extracting small profits from the market, a day trader will not make a fortune in a single day. A trader must have the perseveranc

'How to Become a Thriving Trader?’ Series: Part I - Your Trading Roadmap

Expert:  Rob Nowak, Forex market analyst, at Endeavor Forex Management 
Start:  January 25, 2006 - 15:00GMT 10EST 
End:  approx. 16:00GMT 11EST 

Topics that will be covered for above session are: 

• Note: This is the first chapter in a 5 part series Stay tuned!
• Difference between have a profitable versus an unprofitable trading year
• How to perform professional, effective, and comprehensive daily analysis
• Indicator settings, software requirements, fundamental analysis, support and resistance, pivot points and pattern recognition

'Robert Nowak’s 5 Part Series on How To Become a Thriving Trader'

Part I: Daily Analysis 'Your Trading Roadmap'

Daily analysis of the market is essential to trade profitably. This presentation will be the difference between have a profitable versus an unprofitable trading year. Mr. Nowak will provide an overview of how to perform professional, effective, and comprehensive daily analysis of the EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD & USD/JPY. Topics touched on will include: indicator settings, software requirements, fundamental analysis, support and resistance, pivot points and pattern recognition.

Part II: The Art & Science Pivot Point Trading
Part III: Moving Average Crossover Trading Techniques
Part IV: Trading on Breakouts
Part V: The Psychology of Trading

Who is Rob Nowak?

The key of Rob Nowak’s trading plan is the ability to determine market direction based on institutional accumulation and distribution and recognizing signals based on the correlation of technical indicators and the use of intra-day pivot points and levels.

Speech Material:

This is the first part of a 5 part series presented by Rob Nowak of Endeavor Forex Management. The 5 sessions combined will provide valuable insight into the mind of a professional money manager. Topics that will be explored are

Part I   – How to Analyze the Forex Market on a Daily Basis
Part II   – The Art & Science of Pivot Point Trading
Part III  – Moving Average Crossover Trading Techniques
Part IV  – Trading on Breakouts
Part V   – The Psychology of Trading
Part I Reading Material

Introduction

Trading without daily market analysis is like going to war without a battle plan. No matter what market you are operating in, be it equities, futures or currencies, your analytical approach and discipline are the foundation for your trading success.

What is analysis?

When we say the term "analysis", what is it about which we are speaking? Analysis is the systematic process of asking and answering questions to gain an understanding of a subject matter. The present subject matter is the spot foreign currency market for a given currency pair. Throughout this series we will be using the EUR/USD as an example currency pair.

So, what are the right questions to ask? Where do we look to find the answers? How often we ask the questions? Are some answers more right than others? Can we ask the right questions but get the wrong answers? How do we know if our answers are correct?

Analysis as applied to the forex market is a process in which we must ask and answer certain questions about a specific currency pair on a daily basis. But, which questions do we ask and what tools do we use to answer them? No matter what your trading system, two questions that must be at the root of any analysis are: when is a trade opened and when is a trade closed? Every trading system should be designed to provide the answers to these questions. The key is that the questions that you ask and answer and the analysis that you develop must be performed within the context of YOUR trading system and trading plan.

Trading Plan vs. Trading System

Your trading system is a subset of your overall trading plan. The trading plan is a macro term, the trading system fits within it.
A trading plan includes your:
• Risk Capital
• Number of Trades/Day
• Order Size
• Trading Hours
• Sleep Regimen
• Mental Conditioning
• Choice of Platform
• Trading system A trading system is the collection of the following:
• Analytic approach
• Entry and Exit signals
• Stop loss & take profit expectations
• Trading mechanics (i.e. indicators)
• Consistently applied and implemented system of execution

Analysis & Trading Plan

Analysis fits into your trading plan as the primary tool through which you apply & implement order execution. All trades involve 2 components: an entry and an exit. Early in my trading career, I spent more time awaiting execution than I did planning for it. The by-product was that I lost money. I failed to plan first and then act. In fact I failed to plan, period. I now realize that there are always underlying trends in the market and the best trades are executed with, not away, from those trends. I realized that in order to be a successful trader I needed to carefully perform daily analysis of the market. I knew that if performed properly, this analysis would form the basis of my entry and exit decisions. What I am about to share with you is the evolution of my analytic approach.

Analysis & Trends The best approach to analyzing the market is with a top down approach. By top down we mean by moving from a larger perspective (or compression) to a smaller perspective (or compression). The strongest trades in the forex market are generally in the direction of the prevailing trend or daily bias. Therefore, knowing the daily bias is extremely helpful in determining trade direction. I am often asked, “When do you perform your analysis?” I like to perform my analysis when the market is slow and I have as much data to work with as possible. The best time for me is when positions roll over at 5 p.m. EST, 10 p.m. GMT.

Chart Settings & Indicators

Before we walk through the analytic approach, construct a chart with the following settings:

Price chart setting: candlesticks, white background, black and white candles
Daily compression with 200 days of data
Exponential Moving Averages (EMA’s) of price: 10 period (blue), 20 period (red), 50 period (brown), 200 period (pink), 500 period (green)
Slow Stochastic: 14, 3, 3
MACD: 12,9,26
Most platforms have the ability for you to construct charts using these indicators and settings. Keep in mind that although charts available on platforms are good, they do have limitations. That is why professional traders use customizable charting applications like Tradestation.

While we are on the subject of indicators, here are a few tips:

Regardless of your trading system, try to use as few indicators as possible
Always remember that price is your most important indicator
The oldest indicators are still the most widely applied…this is because they work
Don’t trust your indicators 100%...use common sense in addition to mathematics
If you plan to rely on indicators, back test your strategies
Daily Analysis Step by Step

1. Begin by using a daily price chart with at least 6 months of data on the screen.

2. Plot long-term, intermediate and short-term support and resistance lines on your chart.

3. Calculate and plot daily pivot points on your chart. Pivot points are mathematically determined support and resistance levels around which institutional traders have placed pre-determined orders. If you are not familiar with pivot points, Part II of this series will deal with that topic specifically. (Note: I use pivot points because my system calls for them. You can just use support or resistance or any other measures of price.) The reason for plotting these lines and using such a basic analysis technique is that we want to see how the market is contained. What are the boundaries? How has price reacted to support and resistance?

4. Examine the pattern of price itself…that is just the price without taking into account moving averages, etc… Over the short term to intermediate term is price trending up or down? Is it moving sideways? If it is moving sideways, is it at the top or bottom of the range?

5. Examine exponential moving averages in relation to price and each other. Where is price relative to all of the moving averages? Where are the moving averages in relation to one another? Look for price reacting to a key moving average or two moving averages crossing one another. Examine the price activity of the last few days and then examine historical data to see similar patterns and their characteristics. How do these historical patterns resolve themselves? Remember that market history repeats itself. If the price has bounced off but not broken a key moving average on previous occasions, there is a chance that such average is a support/resistance area and price will bounce again. The same logic applies to 2 moving averages crossing. If you are not familiar with moving averages crossover trading techniques, Part III in this series will deal with that topic specifically.

We now have a general sense of the overall market direction and the boundaries within which the market can be expected to move. The next question we need to answer is, which direction will the market move?

6. Examine your systems technical indicators in consideration of price and direction. Despite what many traders think, indicators are not a bag of magic beans. Technical indicators tell you where the price has been, not where it is going. Indicators are historical facts, however, and as such can help to estimate where the market will go. There are 2 basic types of indicators…those that provide a gauge of direction and those that provide a gauge of activity or momentum. Indicators like MACD and Stochastic are directional while indicators like volatility and ADX are a measure of momentum and activity. For purposes of this discussion, we will ignore momentum indicators and focus on directional indicators.

With respect to Stochastic, consider the following questions: Is stochastic trending up or down? Where is it in relation to the overbought/oversold lines? Has it crossed down or up and where in the range has it crossed? If price is at the top of a range, is stochastic also at the top? When similar patterns have set-up in the past, what has been the result? Is the slope of the stochastic movement divergent to the price movement?

7. Drill down into tighter time compression. Once you have completed all of the above for the daily chart, move on to a 4 hour chart and then a 1 hour chart.

8. Determine entry & exit points. For this step, you can use pivot points, support and resistance, or changes in indicators. In the EUR/USD recently, the range was 1.1660 – 1.1880. When price was at the top of its range on a 4 hour chart and stochastic was above the overbought line and turning down on the same chart, we would go short from a bounce off of resistance. In other words, if the price was 1.1830, we don’t want to go short at that price. We can see that the EUR/USD had previously hit 1.1880 and bounced down on several occasions. We don’t want to go short too soon and have to give up pips before going positive in the trade. So we would set a sell limit order at 1.1860ish with a stop at 1.1915 and a take profit at the next lowest pivot point, somewhere around 1.1910.

Conclusion

Daily analysis is one of the cornerstones of successful trading. By utilizing some method of daily market analysis, a trader can develop a trading blueprint for the day on which his trades will be based. If performed properly and consistently an adequately back tested and implemented analytical approach should enable a trader to trade profitably and with confidence.

Will the Fed hike just one more time at the January 31st FOMC meeting?

Expert:  Piet Lammens, KBC Head of research 
Start:    January 24, 2006 - 15:00GMT 10EST 
End:      approx. 16:00GMT 11EST 

Topics that will be covered for above session are: 

   - Bernanke succeeds Greenspan

   - Will inflation still be well contained?

   - Is slightly weaker 2006 ahead?

   - Bernanke and his own policy before US Congress in the semi-annual testimony on monetary policy  on 15 Feb

   - Don't expect rate cuts yet in 2006!

Who is Piet Lammens?

Piet Lammens Born in Louvain, Belgium on February 28 1958. Law degree, Catholic University of Louvain, Belgium Legal advisor 1982-1989.CERA: Economist Research Department 1989-97.
CERA Investment Bank Analyst dealing room 1998.KBC Head of Research dealing room 1998

Speech Material:

But what comes next?

That is the real question.

The Fed is in our view likely to pause

It will closely observe eco data to make up its mind after that

A new era starts for the Fed as Bernanke succeeds Greenspan

His views will only be widely known by 15 February. He then gives a semi annual testimony to the US Congress. He will use this opportunity to set out his policy framework.

Only then will we know more on that front.

In the mean time, this pause is set to hurt the dollar. Already now the market is becoming very jittery. Sentiment is turning against the Greenback.

EUR/USD is on the rise, breaking out of its medium term sideways channel.

USD/JPY is heading for a test of the recent lows at the mid 113 area.

The euro could and should profit from any dollar doubts, as the ECB is expected to have started a hiking cycle.

We expect the ECB to hike 25 bp every 3 months. That would bring policy rate close to 3% at the end of 2006. It should support the single currency as the rate differential with the

US is lessening.

The next months should become difficult for the USD across the board.

Dollar currencies are to be avoided generally speaking. The Canadian seems the best choice of all dollars.

Derek Frey's FX Weekly Outlook

Expert:  Derek Frey, Head Trader of Odom & Frey Futures & Options 
Start:    January 30, 2006 - 15:00GMT 10EST 
End:      approx. 16:00GMT 11EST 

Topics that will be covered for above session are: 

   - Do not miss your opportunity to be updated in your trading needs this week.

   - Derek Frey brings his view point of the forex market for coming week.

   - Discuss market reaction to news.

   - Enjoy his currency pairs predictions.

   - Must have Fxtrading information for a successful trading week

Who is Derek Frey?

Derek Frey has been a futures trader since 1989 and is Head Trader and partner at Odom & Frey Futures & Options, a firm that specializes in high probability, defined risk option spread trades for the futures markets. Derek is also co-author of O&F News & Views, a weekly newsletter that is published by several publications and over 20 financial websites including FXStreet.com

Speech Material:

EUR/USD: The Euro was more subdued this week than I expected. We have made a very nice bull flag on the daily chart and I expect to see 122 hit early this week and a run towards 124 is not out of the question.

USD/CHF: I continue to be short and my objective on those shorts remains at 125 with stops at 129.

GBP/USD: We continue to be long, stops remain at 175, and my objective remains at 179.

USD/JPY: Got stopped out here at 115. For now I am flat but I am working a buy stop at 115.78 and a sell stop at 113.41.

AUD/USD: Got stopped out here as well. New Buy stop working at 75.77.

USD/CAD: My buy stop was filled at 117.55, but I fear this is the bad news. Stop is working at 114.25, and I do expect to be stopped out this coming week.

FXCM's LIVE Weekly FX analysis

Expert: Boris Schlossberg, Currency Analyst of FXCM 
Start: January 20, 2006 - 14:00GMT 9EST 
End: approx. 15:00GMT 10EST 

   
Topics that will be covered for above session are: 
- Do not miss your opportunity to be updated in your trading needs this week.
- Boris Schlossberg brings his view point of the forex market for coming week.
- Discuss market reaction to news.
- Enjoy his currency pairs predictions.
- Must have Fxtrading information for a succesful trading week

Who is Boris Schlossberg?

Boris Schlossberg serves as Fundamental Analyst at Forex Capital Markets. He has been an independent trader since 2000. He is also a frequent contributor to SFO Magazine with articles focused on risk management.

Speech Material:

• Dollar Sinks On Slower Housing and Factory Market
• Euro-zone Inflation Eases While Trade Marks Deficit
• Japanese Yen Levels Off As Nikkie Recovers

US. Dollar:

Today’s data gave the market another taste in the state of the housing market, and that taste was not what dollar bulls were hoping for. According to the US Census Bureau, both measures of housing starts and building permits, which include both residential and nonresidential properties, for December fell short of already downgraded expectations. Builders broke ground on 1.933 million new homes last month following a revised 2.121 million starts in November. At the same time, building permits fell to a nine month low 2.068 million permits. This data seems to finally offer solid evidence that the booming housing market which has been a major contributor to economic expansion over the past couple years, could be winding down to a close. Furthermore, it offers confirmation to out-going Fed Chairman Greenspan and newly appointed Ben Bernanke that the Fed’s 13 consecutive hikes to the fed funds rate is finally paying off in controlling the market that Greenspan said was beginning to show signs of “froth.”

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Euro:

It was back and forth for the euro as mixed inflation data reported with trade numbers. Two reads of price growth were offered on the day with German producer prices rising 0.3 percent for the month of December and notching higher to 5.2 percent on an annual basis. Consumer prices for the Euro-zone, on the other hand, slowed on an annual basis from 2.3 percent to 2.2 percent for the same month.

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British Pound:

Though there weren’t any data releases at the time, the pound managed to fall dramatically to a one-week low during the Asian trading hours. After spending much of the morning under pressure after a fairly negative economic report, the pound recovered almost just as quickly in a bout of dollar weakness that left the greenback lower against most other majors. Today’s main piece of UK economic news was the quarterly economic survey published by the British Chambers of Commerce.

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Japenese Yen:

The yen held steady today after the Japanese stock indices recovered following the dive in the Nikkei seen earlier this week. Just prior to tomorrow’s monetary policy report, the Cabinet Office released their own monthly economic assessment today. The consensus still seems to be that the recent recovery continues to be led by growing corporate profits and an improving export picture.

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How to build your own Wealth Engine?

Expert:  Ed Young, Team leader for the ATSFX Trading group div of Man Financial 
Start:  January 19, 2006 - 15:00GMT 10EST 
End:  approx. 16:00GMT 11EST 

   
Topics that will be covered for above session are: 

   - Development of the system
   - Why wealth engine forex?
   - How to get started

Who is Ed Young?

Edward L. Young is the team leader for the ATSFX Trading group div of Man Financial. Ed Young is a Graduate of Valparaiso University. He has been a trader for over 20 years specializing in Algorithmic Trading Solutions (ATS). ATS is located at the Chicago Board of Trade and offers a full range of Financial services. Ed Young is a registered Stock Broker, and was a pioneer in developing online trading. Ed Young has also been a driving force in the futures industry managing customer funds for over 20 years. Now he brings his experience and expertise to the Forex Markets. 

Speech Material:

Download Wealth.pps

Wealth Engine B10FX

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Wealth engine 1mm tracking

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Wealth engine Forex 200K

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Wealth engine  tracking

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How will the market move in 2006?

Date: January 18, 2006 15:00GMT 10EST 
Expert: Dr. S. Sivaraman M.Sc., Ph.D., CEO and owner of i-knowindices.com 
Topics:
  - what is expected in EURO and GBP
  - What is uniqueness of USD/YEN moves?
  - How market moves are determined ?
  - How to perceive the market for short term and long term? 

Who is Dr. S. Sivaraman M.Sc., Ph.D.?

Dr. Sivaraman has nine years experience in working with the Forex Market forecast, professional trading training Trading and Portfolio and forex fund Management. He provides professional Forex, Indices and commodity markets analyses using unique proprietary forecast algorithm. 
 
Speech Material:

What is expected in EURO and GBP?

Forex market expected trend for the year 2006.

In any year the market will be volatile and periodically shift the trading zones to provide, daily, weekly, monthly and yearly trends.

Year 2005 had the spread in EURO from 1.35 area to 1.16 area. In this the higher consolidation zone of 1.31-1.35 was followed by 1.29 – 1.23 middle consolidation zone and finally the lower consolidation zone of 1.21 –1.16-area .In between the non-trading zones were passed intra-day quickly without retracement.

Year 2006 - Trading zones in EURO and GBP:

EURO is expected to have 1.29-1.23 are higher consolidation zone, 1.21 –1.16 as middle consolidation zone and 1.14 – 1.12 as lower consolidation zone. So 1.21-1.23 and 1.16 –1.14 will be the non-trading zones. The timing of the shift in trading zones and trend reversals are the specialty of my forecast algorithm.

They are as follows:

January to April upward shift in trading zone is expected and trend reversal.
May – June – downward shift to reach the middle trading zone
July –August – downward shift to lower trading zone.
September – October – lower level consolidation and yearly trend reversal.
November- December – upward shift in trading zone to reach higher levels for next year.

GBP is expected to have 1.87 –1.82 as higher consolidation zone, 1.80 -1.75 as middle consolidation zone and 1.73 –1.67 as lower consolidation zone.1.82-1.80 and 1.75 –1.73 will be non-trading zones. The timing of the shift in trading zones is similar to EURO.

What is uniqueness of USD/YEN moves?

USD/YEN is a contrarian pair. It moves against USD and also along with USD. So mainly traders get confused with such moves. Such moves are mainly to handle the most actively traded YEN crosses. USD/YEN is expected to have the trading range from 123 –109.Now the lower shift in trading zone is in progress. Later the upward shift in trading zone will confuse the traders in a big way in this year, similar to the shift in trading zone seen in USD/CAD in 2005.

How market moves are determined?
No one pre determines the market moves. But the moves are predetermined as per the forecast algorithm. So the unexpected events and herd mentality of the traders induce the operators to move the market against the expectations of the traders from time to time. So what is visible will not be true in the market. We have seen USD strengthening move by 4th Quarter of last year. Still the traders are not envisaging higher levels in other majors. They are tempted to short during rise. This will induce the trap move for the short sellers – i.e. the higher shift in trading zone. Once the traders become comfortable in making buy and sell trades at higher levels without using stop, the lower shift in trading zone will commence to trap all level buyers. So market will appear to traders as ‘sell and buy trade market’, then ‘buy and sell trade market’ alternatively. But the sudden change of market moves (trend reversals) will induce them to continue the type of trades and lose more than what they have earned initially. So avoid following the herd. When all expect the market to rise, it will appear like rising and then drop, similarly when all expect it to drop more it will appear dropping more and then rise big.

Keeping these views you determine your trades.

How to perceive the market for short term and long term?
View the market without any bullish or bearish feel. Understand that false moves and stop hunts are intra day moves to hit the stops of the traders and to induce the traders to take wrong directional positions.

Extended moves like spike and extended stop hunts are bigger moves used against the traders when they follow herd mentality. So avoid being part of the herd.

Focus on intra-day trade with out any long-term views and perceptions. Keep aside the long-term views and use when the going is good in your position trade when the trailing stop is there to protect the minimal profit.

Trading strategies to convert short term to long-term position trades:

Forex trading needs to have the understanding and focus. The market facilitators are larger traders who intend to trap the traders and earn their profits. We have to develop strategies to be unhurt and to earn from the market. When we have limited equity we need to determine the amount of risk we can take at a given time. We also try to minimize the risk and maximize the profit. That becomes possible when we diversify and spread the risk. The reward cannot be achieved without the risk. Many believe more the risk, more the reward. But we need to change the situation as less risk and more reward condition – that becomes possible when we have the objective outlook to minimize the risk and maximize the reward.

So any day trading should commence with minimum lot size position. Let the initial profit be less…but if the going is good and if you maximize the profit using trailing stop the reward becomes more than the risk. We know we can use the hedging order instead of stop when the position is negative and use-trailing stop once the position makes profit. This way we don’t lose the positions from the stop hunt moves of the operators. So a good going position of day trading can be changed with the long-term perception as position trading. The position trading will be leisurely trading, less exposure in the market, need not be monitored all the time of the market and the hedging order will protect the position and limit the risk in a given time. Many think, when we use hedging, frequently it might be hedged and we need to cut with loss. But we should develop the mind set of accept minimal loss and maximize the profit. So that the profit earned from minimal risk and minimal loss will give good trading confidence.

Market means swings and we will continue to see the small to big up and down swings or moves. We normally fail to differentiate the type of moves and get confused with very recent moves or similar past moves. But the moves are no way related to the earlier moves. The operators from time to time based on the adverse positions of the traders decide the moves. If all the traders are holding long positions in EURO and GBP after the negative US data, they have no other go than to drop EURO and GBP to hit their stops by creating another story. So assuming the stories are real the analysts give the long-term projections. But the long term moves of the markets are depending upon the mindset and the surprise quotient of the traders. When the traders don’t become bearish during the fall and continue to take buy positions during drop, the drop will be more to attract margin calls. If the traders quickly change the market perception form bearish to bullish and again to bearish with in a day during each session, then we will see wide range swings of 100-200 pips intra-day. When traders refuse to accept the change in the market direction, then the extended larger moves of 1000-2000 pips happen. So how the traders are going to act towards the market from time to time determine the trends and not the intentions of the larger players unless politically motivated and supported.