FXstreet.com Live Sessions Archives

FXCM Live Analysis

Expert:  Richard Lee, Currency Analyst of FXCM 
Start:    April 28, 2006 - 13:00GMT 9EST 
End:      approx. 14:00GMT 10EST 

   
Topics that will be covered for above session are: 

•    Do not miss your opportunity to be updated in your trading needs this week.
•    Richard Lee brings his view point of the forex market for coming week.
•    Discuss market reaction to news.
•    Enjoy his currency pairs predictions.
•    Must have FXtrading information for a succesful trading week

 

Who is Richard Lee?

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at Forex Capital Markets. Employing both fundamental models and technical analysis applications, Richard contributes regularly to DailyFX, Yahoo Finance and Comtex. Prior to joining the research team, Richard was one of the senior instructors for the FX Power Course, teaching thousands of traders the basics of currency trading, technical analysis and how to implement trading strategies. He has extensive experience in trading the spot currency markets, options and futures. Richard previously traded FX, equity and equity derivatives for a private equity consortium prior to joining FXCM. He holds a BA in Economics as well as a BS in French with an emphasis in International Business from the Pennsylvania State University. 

Session Material:

• Dollar Collapses as Bernanke Talks of a Pause in Rates
• Strong Eurozone Data Continues to Bolster Euro
• Yen Has a Big Night Ahead; China Raises Interest Rates

US Dollar
On what was suppose to be a quiet day with little data, the US dollar took another beating as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke raised the possibility of a pause in the FOMC’s tightening cycle. This is as dovish as we could expect from the central bank at a time when inflationary pressures are indeed building and recent economic reports have been showing signs of growth. Furthermore, the Fed is acknowledging these upside risks by saying that even “if its objectives are not entirely balanced,” they may decide to “take no action at one or more meetings,” which is their way of saying that they may not be phased by the recent reports. It is quite clear that the cards are stacking higher and higher against the dollar’s favor and Bernanke’s latest comments may indeed be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. This is in line with our expectations for interest rates to be capped at 5 to 5.25 percent. We are already above the psychologically and technically important 1.25 level, which means that there is room for more strength. The persistence of the Fed has been the main factor that has kept dollar weakness against the Euro relatively tame compared to its weakness against the Yen, but now that they have for the first time introduced the possibility of a pause, we could see the support beams give way. Dollar bulls will now have to contend with the world calling for more strength in Asian currencies, reserve diversification, geopolitical risks and a possible end to the Fed’s tightening cycle. Such grave risks could scare many bulls out of the market even if we get a strong GDP report tomorrow. The market has already shrugged off many pieces of good data so we would not be surprised if it did the same for GDP, especially since it is commonly seen as a lagging indicator. We have been saying all week that the latest shift should not be taken lightly since it is a result of many different yet serious fundamental factors. Next week, we will have a lot more data to contend with including non-farm payrolls and judging from Bernanke’s comments, the Fed will be watching the reports very closely to determine when this potential pause may come. Most analysts still believe that we will see a May rate hike, but the June interest rate hike is much more up in the air at this point. The only saving grace for the dollar against the Euro will probably come from the ECB. If the central bank becomes concerned about Euro strength and begins to talk down the Euro or delay further the need for continued rate hikes on their part, we could see a much needed retracement.

Euro
The Euro skyrocketed today on comments from Bernanke, marking the fifth consecutive day of strength for the currency against the US dollar. Eurozone economic data continues to come in strongly with German unemployment falling by a more than expected 40k in the month of April. This brought the unemployment rate down to 11.3 percent from 11.4 percent. Italian business confidence also picked up, rising from 94.5 to 96.1. The strength of data has prompted some central bankers to remain hawkish with ECB member Garganas saying that interest rates remain very low and “we need to expect more rate increases” in the future. Admittedly rates are extremely low and do need to be increased, but the question lies in he timing of the increase. With the EUR/USD trading above 1.25, the currency is tightening the region’s economy without the central bank’s help. The 500 pip rise over the past month will certainly have an impact on exports, which will filter into weaker economic reports for the month of May and June if the currency remains at current levels. This is a cycle that we have seen often and it could be a good reason for the central bank to hold back a bit longer and wait to see how the economy responds. The latest surge in Euro should erase any lingering speculation for the ECB to raise rates next month. The June rate hike however is still a possibility and with the US’ June rate hike now in question, the first month of summer could prove to be anything but dull.

British Pound
The British pound strengthened against both the US dollar and Euro today despite the weaker house price report from the Nationwide Building Society. The market shrugged off the report as nothing more than a retracement off of stronger numbers seen the previous month. Broad dollar weakness pushed the pound higher but against the euro, the move was likely due to a retracement from five days of consecutive strength. Aside from the Gfk Consumer Confidence report due tomorrow, we are done for the week. Consumer confidence is expected to improve modestly, rising from -7 to -6. As indicated by Bank of England’s Barker yesterday, data has been mixed and as such, the central bank will probably continue to stand on the sidelines until we get clearer signs of where the economy is headed. 
Japanese Yen
The Japanese Yen strengthened against the dollar today, but weakened slightly against the other major currencies. There was no economic data released last night, but the Ministry of Finance’s Watanbe was on the wires talking down the yen. He said that the market misinterpreted the G7’s comments on imbalances and that it did not mean that an adjustment in the value of Asian currencies against the dollar was needed. We beg to differ since the G7 finance ministers said specifically that more flexibility was needed in exchange rates. Tonight will be a big night in Japan with CPI, unemployment, retail sales, industrial production, personal consumption expenditure, personal income, PMI, housing starts and construction orders all due for release. In addition, the Bank of Japan is holding a policy meeting and will also be releasing their semi-annual outlook on the economy and inflation. This is all being done ahead of the Golden Week holidays in Japan next week. With so much data on tap, it would be a surprise if we didn’t see decent volatility in the yen tonight. Meanwhile, it is worth noting that China increased its interest rates last night for the first time since October 2004 from 5.58 to 5.85 percent to cool the economy. This is yen positive since it suggests that they are taking yet another subtle moves to increase the value of their currency.

Different methods for calculating pivot points

Expert:  Dan Johnson, Chief dealer at Spencer Financial 
Start:    April 27, 2006 - 14:00GMT 10EST 
End:     approx. 15:00GMT 11EST 

   
Topics that will be covered for above session are: 

•    Interpreting and Using Pivot Points
•    Pivot points can be used in two ways

Who is Dan Johnson?

Dan Johnson has more than twenty years of Forex and Currency Futures experience. He began working at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) floor in 1980, and became a member of the exchange in 1985. Mr. Johnson’s many years on the CME trading floor involved trading, and execution of his own and client accounts in the foreign currency markets. He has been active in the FOREX markets since leaving the trading floor in 1992. He is currently chief dealer at Spencer Financial.

Speech Material:

Pivot Points
There are several different methods for calculating pivot points, the most common of which is the five-point system.

This method uses the previous day's high, low and close, along with two support levels and two resistance levels (totaling five price points) to derive a pivot point.

Calculation
H=High
L=Low
C=Close

Resistance#2    P + (H - L) = P + (R1 - S1) =R2
Resistance#1   (P x 2) – L =R1
Pivot                (H + L + C) / 3 =P
Support#1        (P x 2) – H =S2
Support#2         P - (H - L) = P - (R1 - S1) =S2

Interpreting and Using Pivot Points
When calculating pivot points, the pivot point itself is the primary support/resistance. This means that the largest price movement is expected to occur at this price. The other support and resistance levels are less influential, but may still generate significant price movements

Pivot points can be used in two ways.

The first way is for determining overall market trend: if the pivot point price is broken in an upward movement, then the market is bullish, and vice versa.
You could then apply short term signals in the direction of the trend.

The second method is to use pivot point price levels to enter and exit the markets.

Keep in mind, however, that pivot points are short-term trend indicators, useful for only one day until they need to be recalculated.

Click to enlarge:

Time to Take Control: Performance based risk management

Expert:  Fernando Gonzalez, Forex Instructor of Online Trading Academy 
Start:    April 26, 2006 - 14:00GMT 10EST 
End:     approx. 15:00GMT 11EST 

   
Topics that will be covered for above session are: 

•     Management is the single most important aspect in trading
•    'Am I safe in my car because I have brakes'

Who is Fernando Gonzalez?

Fernando Gonzalez now enters his 10th year as an active trader, technical analyst and content contributor to a long list of popular financial media. In 1999 he authored the best-selling book Strategies for the Online Day Trader, one of only a handful of books on the topic that have ever reached the top 5 overall best sellers on Amazon.com. In 1998, he was one of the original founding members of the Online Trading Academy team, which has now grown to be the world’s leading trading school.

Don Wolanchuk, 17-time winner of the prized Timer Digest Timer of the Year award says of Fernando: It is uncommon to find a highly trained and skilled trader that has the teaching skills to match Fernando is among those few.Best-selling author Toni Turner says: If Fernando is speaking, I want to be there!

Fernando continues today as a Newsletter author, content contributor and Instructor for Online Trading Academy, where he teaches his highly regarded Broad Market Analysis class.

Speech Material:

Any trader who knows his salt will tell you that Risk Management is the single most important aspect in trading, regardless of style or technical strategy. Yet, most traders are really not able to define what “Risk Management” really is. Let’s pause for a moment, and think: can we define, in one brief sentence, what Risk Management is?

Most will relegate their entire Risk Management strategy to “stop losses.” But to do so would be the equivalent of saying “I am safe in my car because I have brakes.” We will begin with bringing forth a crystal clear definition of Risk Management and further into the root of true “Risk Management” in itself on a discussion that extends much further beyond the elementary concepts of “stop loss” and “discipline.”

Charts 1-3 Click all to enlarge:

Finding the right moment to trade

Expert:  Toni Juste, FX Advisor at FXstreet.com 
Start:    April 25, 2006 - 14:00GMT 10EST 
End:     approx. 15GMT 11EST 

   
Topics that will be covered for above session are: 

•   Filtering by price
•    Filtering by time zone
•    Filtering by timeframe
•    Filtering by type of trade

Who is Toni Juste?

Tony Juste serves as Foreign Exchange Advisor at FXstreet.com, where he contributes as both a technical commentator and advisor in currency-related topics. He is a graduate in business administration and has a specialization in technical analysis of the financial markets. Prior to joining the forex marketplace, he was involved with stocks trading, futures and options, and finally in 1999 he moved to the currency markets. In 2004, he also entered the CFD market.

Speech Material:

Finding the right moment to trade

Executing a trade is the last part of the decision-making process in trading. It is the moment when you decide to buy or sell an specific pair according to a set of pre-defined rules that maximize your expectation. There are several factors that may have a critical influence in increasing/decreasing your overall expectation before putting on a trade (or that may cause you to abandon it):

- Price
- Time Zone
- Timeframe
- Type of trade

These factors are what I call the FILTERS. They are the means to help you avoid trades that might be costly and/or execute others where your initial expectation wasn’t the highest.

Filtering by price basically means not jumping the gun at a price that you might not feel comfortable with at a later stage. Basically it is as if you knew that you would definitely go short @ 100.50 on a specific pair but at the same time, with prices @ 100.10, thought the market would not be able to hit that level, so you take action and place the trade before missing it. If prices climb to your desired entry level, you will feel that you had a great entry level for a great risk/reward, but that now you are 40 pips in the red, and obviously the situation will be a more stressful one.

Filtering by Time Zone basically means that there are some currencies that are worthless trading depending on the time of the day (GMT). In the Forex Market, there are 3 main Time Zones, that correspond to the 3 Forex Sessions: Asian Session, European Session, US Session.
Needless to say that the last 2 are the most active, being the European Session the one matching more volume.
That means that the volume is basically drying up (and volatility as well) when we head to the Asian Session. Currencies like CHF, CAD and GBP tend to be traded less actively there, which means that putting on a trade could end up in being too costly, not only when it comes to the risk/reward ratio, but also to the expenses associated with it (spread-volatility, ovenright interest, etc..).

Filtering by TimeFrame basically means finetuning the entry point based on a combination of timeframes. There is people who rely on a single timeframe ever, and they stick to it. But there is also people who think they can maximize their overall expectation if they have a longer timeframe to get the global picture and a shorter timeframe to get the specific entry level, once they both go in the same direction. I should say that this is the most common filter traders use worldwide, and mastering the combination of timeframes rewards nicely.

Filtering by Type of Trade basically means to stick to what suits you best as a trader. If you are a daytrader, using daily chart will basically be useless (unlss it is just for getting the overall direction) for placing your trades. If you can combine both short and long timeframes when trading (daytrading and swing trading), then you will find this filter less useful but then I would recommend to stick to the timeframe chosen to put on a trade until it ends, and not to think of what could’ve  been if you had chosen the other type for that one.

Let me show you what I have just exposed in the charts.

Chart 1-4 Click all to enlarge:

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Choose your filter. Preferrably 1 (more than 1 is also ok, but not my recommendation). Stick to it to maximize your overall expectation. Happy trading.

Currency’s place in Commodities

Currency’s place in Commodities 
Expert:  James Balacco, Private trader and researcher of Syslinx 
Start:  April 25, 2006 - 6:30GMT 1:30EST 
End:  approx. 7:30GMT 2:30EST 

   
Topics that will be covered for above session are: 

•    Oil black gold
•    Euro / US and the Oil price changes

 

Who is James Balacco?

James Balacco has been a private trader and researcher for the past 15 Years. He hs spent many years studying Full time with Joe Rondinone the last living Student of W.D. Gann. He is currently working on research and development with a innovative system.

Session Material:

Currency’s place in Commodities

Oil  Black Gold 

There is a lot of marketing by Forex groups promoting Forex trading. While this is a good thing and is providing some welcomed competition. The focus on the currency markets has highlighted some significant changes that have occurred over the last few years, in which commodities and Energy markets have either influenced or have affected the currency.  These changes have been in some cases very obvious and in some way predictable in “Direction” but not necessarily in price. In other words the direction was conformed but how far the price would go was not so easy to determine.

As an example I will focus on the Euro / US and the Oil price changes. While I am purely a “Mathematical Trader”(Using technical’s of my own, based on unique calculations),  I do realise and take notice of the changes that occur in the economy.

I present a different outlook, in that the data (chart) reflects the coming fundamentals and generally most moves in price and direction can be viewed before the actual fundamentals come into play. This technique is based around the principle that price and time changes in a market set up the movement as a “projection”.

Oil for instance has been a major talking point not just because of inflationary fears or price at the pump. The tie between the currency and oil issues is a lot deeper than you think.
The interesting thing is Oil and the Euro has been looking for an excuse to merge, long before September 2001.

Click to enlarge:


Oil made a long term change in trend in November 2000 from here it fell from $35 highs to $17 lows in November 2001 a whole year, the interesting thing was the economists and experts all predicted the price of oil to move up to $40 a barrel – I remember “experts” and traders were saying oil is going up past $40 during the terrible tragedy of 9 – 11. History shows the lows were in November 2001 so what happened ? And what happened to the euro ?

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Well interesting enough the Euro vs. USD made it’s trend change in November 2000 to the upside. As oil dipped into the lows of $17’s  the Euro started to become stronger and competitive against the US.
Again in the November 2001 the Oil and the euro (direction started even though price did not move until February 02) made changes this time in sync, the Oil made its low and started to push up along with it the Euro also a minor low but holding its trend to the upside.

Click to enlarge:



From this point on, Oil and the euro currencies have stayed frightfully close. While I do not agree with correlations or look to influence my risk profile or management techniques on correlated markets, some markets will synchronize through periods of time – however I wish to point out each market should be taken on its data and abilities, regardless of how well it correlates or perceived uncorrelated markets.
Some examples are the Gold, Bonds, index’s which normally have perceived correlations or uncorrelated ties but in the past few years have bucked this association.

I’ve pointed this out as a lot of fund managers will focus on correlated or non-correlated markets and devise algorithms or risk management to “adjust for this” when it’s important to follow the market for its ability and access each market on its own merit.

Ok, back on the trading side, we see the two markets created upward movement and without knowing what was happening in the background the opportunity and the chart data or technical information allowed you to be positioned for both markets.

So to answer the questions above and provide some insight, the Oil price is linked to the USD most nations sell their oil in USD. The coming of the Euro in 2000 cemented a competitor to the market place. Even before war with Iraq there has been anti US sentiments from many countries, whether outwardly or privately.
For nations to look to change the currency they needed a healthy competitor other than the British pound  “something neutral” hence the euro has built itself up through its price changes to the upside and beyond the $1 mark vs USD. 2003 saw the Euro climb above  $1 and hold above that level making the euro a currency to be holding.

Oil countries have and our switching over to Euro.

As an example : IRAQ under Saddam Hussein stopped US dollars for their Oil and moved to Euro’s – interestingly in November 2000 !  Iraq also converted its UN account to Euro’s and the any reserves were all converted to Euros  (we are talking about 10’s of billions of dollars).

I am not into conspiracies just facts, it is interesting that the euro has moved considerably and held itself above the $1 mark for more than a year now giving stability and proving it has enough strength to compete and be worth buying.

Currently look at some of the Arab nations and their policies on oil, if you investigate you find they are changing/considering to move over to the euro instead of the US dollar.
While you will have some theorist say the USA is screwed, don’t be fooled the US has signed treaties with OPEC and South American Oil cartels which still give value BUT one thing is for sure there is fight brewing and the currencies will be the place to be. There will be serious moves and good trading opportunities available if you spend the time and prepare for changes to occur.

I believe the currency market will become a very interesting trading niche between the big guns of the economic world, all you should be doing is allowing them to determine the direction and hop on for the rides.

The Future :

I am not going to go into my working and what positions will be making opportunities as if I give that away then I would ruin my own systems and management of them. What I will do is give you an idea and understanding of where i see the movements and future market changes occurring based on the price and timing.

I am not into predicting but projecting based on the mathematics of the market.
I have given some examples below.

The euro has been in a downtrend since March last year, currently we are right on a change again and the future move should be a re-test of the 1.2600.

The Aussie dollar has finally moved down and broken the .7400 it is still in a down trend and at this stage of writing it should go down to .71 and lower.

The British pound is currently still in a downtrend this has some ability to continue towards the 1.70 again and watching carefully, there is opportunity for market to provide another serious move similar to march, last year.

The interesting one at the moment is the Yen, it has been fairly quiet in its movement over the last few months, watch this carefully. Its last move created a 108 to 120 roughly in range a very nice long term run.

I hope this is a help and provides another insight into currencies.

FXCM Live Market Analysis

Expert:  Jamie Saettele, Technical Analyst of FXCM 
Start:    April 21, 2006 - 13:00GMT 9 EST 
End:      approx. 14GMT 10EST 

   
Topics that will be covered for above session are: 

•    Do not miss your opportunity to be updated in your trading needs this week.
•    Jamie Saettele brings his view point of the forex market for coming week.
•    Discuss market reaction to news.
•    Enjoy his currency pairs predictions.
•    Must have FXtrading information for a succesful trading week

Who is Jamie Saettele?

Jamie Saettele is the Technical Currency Analyst at FXCM. In addition to writing daily technical commentaries on the seven major currency pairs as well as currency crosses, he is also responsible for trading strategy development at FXCM. As a former lead FX Power Course Instructor, Jamie has extensive knowledge of technical analysis and is deeply involved in developing and backtesting automated trading systems. His keen understanding of the quantitative framework behind a variety of technical indicators allows him to offer a unique perspective on price action to the readers of dailyfx.com. Jamie was a graduate of Bucknell University where he helped to manage a portion of the school’s endowment. He is also an active currency trader employing both discretionary and systematic approaches to the FX market.

Session Material:

• Dollar Recovers as Moves Reach Exhaustion – No US Data Tomorrow
• UK Inflation Reaches Yearly Low
• No Changes Yet on Currency Regime from Chinese President Hu

US Dollar
The US dollar regained strength today not because of good economic data, but because of exhaustion. The dollar has weakened significantly over the past week for many of reasons. However now that all of the important pieces of data are behind us and no US economic releases are scheduled for tomorrow, dollar bears took the opportunity to take profits ahead of the G7 weekend. Both the leading indicators and Philly Fed reports released today were weaker than expected. In fact leading indicators fell for the second month in a row in March and even though the performance of the manufacturing sector improved, it was not enough to change the market’s perception that the Federal Reserve is near the end of their tightening cycle. Bernanke was scheduled to speak today but he refrained from making any mention of the economy or monetary policy, which suggests that he is trying his best not to fall into the same trap as Greenspan did, which is to cause unwarranted volatility in the markets by making any surprise comments. This may be a good tactic since the market was already caught off guard by the difference in tone between the FOMC statement and the minutes from the same meeting. Oil and gold prices are both lower today as they also retraced from their own extremely exhausted moves. This pushed the commodity currencies lower and in fact, the day’s biggest movers were AUD/USD and NZD/USD, which sold off 1.2 percent and 1.4 percent respectively. However the most important thing to remember is that themes have not changed. The Fed is still less aggressive than the market had initially thought and the pressures pushing commodity prices higher namely, inflation fears, Iran and Chinese demand are still here to stay.

Euro
After three straight days of strength that led to 250 pips of gains, the Euro finally let dollar bulls take the lead for once. Inflation figures were solid with a 0.6 percent rise in consumer prices in the month of March. The annualized pace of CPI growth slowed slightly from 2.3 percent to 2.2 percent. However this still remains far above the central bank’s 2 percent target which means that it gives them no reason to veer away from their hawkish stance on interest rates. Italian numbers were mixed with consumer confidence dipping from 109.1 to 106.1, but orders rose a strong 4.3 percent in the month of February. Sales increased more than expected by 1.9 percent. So far, recent data still supports another rate hike in June, but it is important to keep in mind that the central is very sensitive to the value of the Euro. If we continue to fluctuate between the 1.2150-1.2375 range for the next 2 months, then we are on course for a June rate hike. On the other hand if the Euro breaks above 1.25 and brings the new trading range up to 1.24-1.26, then a June rate hike, though still very likely, may come attached with much more toned down comments from the European Central Bank.

British Pound
Unlike yesterday, the British pound weakened against both the Euro and the US dollar. Despite high energy prices, inflation growth in the UK was extremely subdued. Consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in the month of March, which compares to the market’s forecast for 0.4 percent growth. This brought the annualized pace of CPI growth down to 1.8 percent from 2.0 percent. Core CPI growth also slowed from a year over year rate of 1.4 percent to 1.3 percent. The bottom-line is that inflation in the UK fell to the lowest level in 12 months and the annualized inflation rate is now below the Bank of England’s 2 percent target. With yesterday’s MPC minutes showing that some members of the policy making committee are concerned with the downside risks to the economy, the latest inflation numbers has raised the speculation that the central bank may be lowering interest rates in the third or fourth quarter of this year. Although this is still only a small possibility given the stabilization of the housing market, pound traders now have a good reason to be bearish the currency, which once again highlights the divergence in Euro vs. Pound sentiment. Mortgage lending figures for the month of March was the highest since July of last year, which confirms the improving health of housing market.

Japanese Yen
Today, the Japanese Yen has rallied against all of the major currencies except for the US dollar. It is important to mention that over the past week, the Yen’s performance against the dollar has been very different from its performance against any of the other currency pairs. This confirms that it is the dollar’s influence that is driving the price action of USD/JPY and not the market’s fundamental perception on how the Japanese economy is performing. The rally in the yen today has been linked to the surprisingly large trade surplus in the month of March. Originally expected to drop quite a bit, the surplus actually increased thanks to strong exports and weaker imports. Other developments were not as positive for the yen with BoJ Deputy Governor Muto reiterating that the central will probably keep rates near zero for some time until economic conditions improved further. He also noted the recent volatility in long term rates. Meanwhile little came out of the Chinese President’s visit with the US President today. Hu reaffirmed that the country will “continue to advance the reform of the renminbi exchange rate,” but did not elaborate on how soon they would do so and through which methods, indicating that they are standing firm on their current policy.

Charts Click all to enlarge:

Stretching to Fit Your Goals and Dreams

Expert:  Adrienne Togharie, Trader's Coach www.TradingOnTarget.com 
Start:    April 19, 2006 - 14:00GMT 10EST 
End:      approx. 15GMT 11EST 

   
Topics that will be covered for above session are: 

•    Habitual behavior patterns
•    Upgrade your performance
•    Are you willing to make the commitment

Who is Adrienne Togharie?

Adrienne Togharie, a Trader’s Coach, is an internationally recognized authority in the field of human development for the financial community. Her 8 books on the psychology of trading including, The Winning Edge1-4 and Traders' Secrets, co-authored with Murray Ruggiero, have been highly praised by financial magazines. Adrienne's public seminars and private counseling have achieved a wide level of recognition and popularity, as well as her television appearances and keynote addresses at major industry conferences.

Speech Material:

Stretching to Fit Your Goals and Dreams

Our neurological system is comfortable with our habitual behavior patterns and will support us with that status quo.  So if you are losing, winning or leveled out with consistent profits but not growing, your are very likely to stay in that situation unless you are willing to do what is necessary to stretch.  Most people who want to upgrade their performance are willing to read a book, go to a seminar, but not willing to consistently follow through on what they have learned over the long haul.  The question is, what does it take to stretch, and are you seriously willing to make that commitment?  If you are not, then expect the same results. If you are, then get ready to take a ride on a trip to the next level of success where, in six months, you will be at your next launching point.

Daily Trading Planning

Expert:  Wayne McDonell, Chief Currency Coach, FxBootcamp.com 
Start:     April 18, 2006 - 14:00GMT 10EST 
End:      approx. 15GMT 11EST 

   
Topics that will be covered for above session are: 

•    Planning will help you control your emotions
•    It will give you a chance to implement thoughtful analysis
•    By making logical decisions, you will reduce your risk of making poor trades.

Who is Wayne McDonell?

Wayne McDonell is a professional FOREX trader with an Entrepreneurial spirit and a business leader's mind. He trades his own funds and trains others how to do so consistently and profitably by coaching them everyday... in the live FOREX markets. No signals or alerts are provided. Only trade planning and execution that suits the individual trader's style, comfort and risk tolerance.

Mr. McDonell has coached hundreds of entrepreneurs and executives. He has spoken at dozens of conferences around the world. He's held several senior management roles at companies from 2 - 2000 employees, including Cicso Systems and Apple Computers. As a venture capitalist,
he as invested in over 100 consumer and industrial patents. Mr.McDonell has appeared in many publications including Inc Magazine,
TechWeek, Information Week, The National Post, as well as others in Europe and Asia.

Mr. McDonell's passion is FOREX. He currently mentors currency traders who are preparing to trade currency as a career. Future plans include a book and seminar tour.

Speech Material:

Click here to view video

Click here to view TODAY'S video

Successful planning will:
- Reduce your stress
- Increase your
- Consistency
- Confidence
- Control
- Provide “Repeatability” by refining your trading skills.

SMART PLANing includes:
- Market Analysis
- Fundamental Analysis
- Technical Analysis
- Risk Analysis
- Trade Analysis

Part 1: MARKET ANALYSIS

SPEED: 

- Measure the speed of the market using Medium-Term Moving Averages.
- Measure the speed of the market with the Angle & Separation of at least two Medium-Term Moving Averages.
- The greater the Angle & Separation, the greater the speed.

MOMENTUM:

- Measure the momentum of the market using Short-Term Moving Averages.
- Measure the momentum of the market with the Angle & Separation of at least two Short-Term Moving Averages.
- The greater the Angle & Separation, the greater the speed.

Goals:  Identify if today is a Trending or Range Trading day.

Note:  A market will maintain its speed and momentum until something fundamentally changes it.

Part 2: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

ANNOUCEMENTS:

- Take note of the time and intensity of the fundamental reports that are scheduled for release during this trade session.

Goal: Utilize the increase in controlled volatility produced by the news release.

Note: Extreme volatility caused by quarterly and some monthly (NFP) reports is unwanted.  Refrain from trading until controlled volatility returns to the market.

Part 3: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

RANGE:

- Identify Support & Resistance Lines are your charts.
- Fast trending markets are likely to produce Breakout Trade opportunities.
- Slow ranging markets are likely to produce Bounce Trade opportunities.

Goals: Define potential entry points for your trade plan.

Note: Use this planning intelligence when selecting your technical indicators and studies.  Fibonacci retracement and extensions may be more useful in trending markets.  Oscillators may work better in range bound markets.  For best results, use the right tools for the job.

TREND: 

- Use the 200 EMA as an “equilibrium price point”. 
- This means that the 200 EMA represents balance & harmony for price action.
- Price is either moving towards the 200 EMA or away from the 200 EMA.

Goal:  Trade in the direction of the ebb or flow.

Notes: If price is at the 200 EMA, then wait for price to decide which direction (up or down) it wants to assume.  Until it decides, do not trade.

PIVOT POINTS: 

- Using this leading indicator to identify potential short-term direction of the market.

Goal: Estimate Entry and Exhaustion Points.

Note: M1, Central Pivot and M4 lines as key areas.

Part 4: RISK ANALYSIS

LIMITS:

- Set two limit orders.
- One limit order for loss.
- One limit order for profit.

Goals: Reduce fear and greed.

Notes: Risk no more than 5% of your capital on a trade.
Example:

$1,000 mini account.
Max drawdown: $50
Mini account = $1 per pip.

5% trade rule will allow your Stop-Loss order to be:

- 50 pips away from your entry order if trading 1 mini lot.
- 25 pips away from your entry order if trading 2 mini lots.
- 16 pips away from your entry order if trading 3 mini lots.

Part 5: TRADE ANALYSIS

ALERTS:

- Plan your entry and trade your plan.

Goal: Set a mental alert that will signal for you to execute your trade plan.

Example: “I will place a BUY order if Support holds and when the fast Moving Averages crossover to the upside”.

Note: Your entry will be based on your personal trade plan, risk tolerance, and trading style.  Only you can “pull the trigger”.  Hopefully trade planning will give you the patience, discipline and confidence to trade your plan.

NOTHING:

- If you do NOT get your entry alarm, do NOT trade!

Goal: Trade only when the odds are more in your favor and risk is tolerable.

Note: Do not chase price.  Create a new trade plan if this plan fails.

In summary:

To be able to successfully trade FOREX day in and day out, year after year, you cannot rely on your gut, your instinct or your luck. 

Just like in Las Vegas, you may win a few lucky hands while gambling, but the casino knows that if they can keep you at the card tables, eventually your luck will run out and you WILL lose.

A successful FOREX trader always takes the time to develop a SMART PLAN.

SMART PLAN:

S peed – Medium Term Moving Averages
M omentum – Short Term Moving Averages
A nnouncements – Potential change in sentiment
R ange – Breakout or Bounce trade opportunities
T rends – Long Term Moving Average

P ivot Points – Entry & Exhaustion Points
L imit Orders – For Profit & Loss
A larms – Your signal to Trade The Plan
N othing – No alarm.  No Trade

Futures Trades of the week

Expert:  Derek Frey, Head Trader Of Odom & Frey Futures & Options 
Start:    April 13, 2006 - 15:30GMT 11:30EST 
End:     approx. 16:30GMT 12:30EST 

   
Topics that will be covered for above session are: 

•     Silver
•     Euro Currency

Who is Derek Frey?

Derek Frey has been a futures trader since 1989 and is Head Trader and partner at Odom & Frey Futures & Options, a firm that specializes in high probability, defined risk option spread trades for the futures markets. Derek is also co-author of O&F News & Views, a weekly newsletter that is published by several publications and over 20 financial websites including FXStreet.com.

Speech material:

Market:  May 2006 Silver (SVK6)

Tick value: 1 cent = $50.00 
Option Expiration: 04/25/06 This trade is short term on purpose!
Trade Description: Bear put Spread
Max Risk: $500
Max Profit:  $2000
Risk Reward ratio 4:1
O&F Clients: O&F Clients can now click here to respond to this trade Please be sure and type your account number or name in the body of the email as well as the quantity you would like to put on. Call us at 1-866-636-6378 if you have any trouble with this feature. You will get a confirmation email from us once the order is received.

Buy one May 2006 Silver 12.00 put, while selling one May Silver 11.50 put, for a combined cost and risk of 10 cents ($500) or less to open a position.

Technical / Fundamental Explanation:
Silver has been on fire. The run we have seen from $10.00 to 13.00 in just the past few weeks has been a classic blow off type of move. I mean come on, since when are 50 cent ranges per day in silver the norm, other than during a blow off?! So if you can't tell I am calling a temporary top here. Long term I remain a bull, but to be able to maintain this up trend we need a shakeout, pullback, consolidation, or whatever you want to call it. Bottom line here is metals need to cool to be able to continue in the long run. The CPO model I use is what lead me to this trade, those of you who have seen this model work know that CPO is rarely wrong. It's timing can be a bit off but overall if it says the market is coming down then it is very likely to happen and it has been screaming sell for the last 24 hours. I am short spot silver from 12.95 on a signal that CPO gave me late last night. This trade is short term because this pull back should be short term. Remember, markets almost always fall at least twice as fast as they came up, so silver should be a wild ride for the next few weeks at least. Trying to catch this move with a futures contract is possible but only for traders with deep pockets and lots of coffee as these market require constant monitoring if you are in futures. Trust me on this, I haven't slept for more than a few hours the last few nights due to trading these metals, much of the action in metals takes place in Asia while we sleep here in the USA. Silver hitting $13.00 last night (4/11/06) during the "Asian session" is a perfect example of this. This is one of the lowest risk ways we can come up with to try and make money on this correction. This trade can also be used as a partial hedge for those of you still long silver.

Chart 1

Profit Goal:
Max profit assuming a 10 cent fill is 40 cents($2000) giving this trade a 4:1 risk reward ratio. Max profit occurs at expiration with Silver trading anywhere below 11.50. * Contact us for more details.

Risk Analysis:
Max risk assuming a 10 cent fill is $500. This occurs at expiration with the Silver trading above 12.00.

Market:  May 2006 Euro Currency (ECK6) *May options trade based on the June futures price.

Tick value: 1 point = $12.50 
Option Expiration: 05/05/06   
Trade Description: Bull Call Ladder Spread
Max Risk: $275
Max Profit:  $975
Risk Reward ratio 3.5:1
O&F Clients: O&F Clients can now click here to respond to this trade Please be sure and type your account number or name in the body of the email as well as the quantity you would like to put on. Call us at 1-866-636-6378 if you have any trouble with this feature. You will get a confirmation email from us once the order is recieved.

Buy one May 2006 Euro Currency 123 call, also buy one May Euro Currency 126 call, while selling one May Euro Currency 124 call, and sell one May Euro Currency 125 call. For a combined cost and risk of 22 points ($275) or less to open a position.

Technical / Fundamental Explanation:
This has been one of the single best trades we have consistently done this year. I continue to be bullish this market and recommend banking the profits from the April spread we exited today and at the same time rolling our original investment from the April trade right back into this May trade. With the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) nearing the end to the rate hiking cycle, the Dollar has little left to keep it propped up. Not to mention the fact that no one has more of a vested interest in a weak dollar than the US itself. A weak dollar is about the only way we will be able to deflate our way out of debt and at the same time at least try and compete with China. Turning to technicals one can see that we have clearly turned higher and reversed the downtrend. Most economists agree that the Dollars days are numbered and we are likely to see some rather large moves in currencies against the Dollar for the rest of this year. All in all this is a very low Dollar way to be long a near the money call for then next month while getting better than 3 to 1 on your money and having over a 250 point profit range.

Chart 2:

Profit Goal:
Max profit assuming a 22 point fill is 78 points ($975) giving this trade a 3.5:1 risk reward ratio. Max profit occurs at expiration with Euro Currency trading between 124 and 125. The trade is profitable at expiration if the Euro Currency is trading any where between 123.22 and 125.78 (break even points) which means we have a band of 256 points in Euro Currency that we can profit in! * Contact us for more details.

Risk Analysis:
Max risk assuming a 22 point fill is $275. This occurs at expiration with the Euro Currency trading below 123 or above 126.

Scalper Buys and Sells

Expert:  John F. Carter, President of Trade the Markets, Inc. 
Start:    April 13, 2006 - 14:00GMT 10EST 
End:      approx. 15GMT 11EST 
 
   
Topics that will be covered for above session are: 

• Identifying and Profiting from Changes in Trend without Catching a Falling Knife or Stepping in Front of a Freight Train.

Who is John F. Carter?

John F. Carter, CTA, is president of Trade the Markets, Inc., and principal of the money management firm Razor Trading. Carter speaks often at Trader's Expo and other trading industry events, and is a regular contributor to SFO magazine, award-winning website tradethemarkets.com, and Chicago Board of Trade publications.
John has written numerous articles and has been a featured speaker at a number of major investment conferences over the last 4 years. In addition to trading, he consults with various brokerages, money managers and exchange.

Speech Material:

Identifying and Profiting from Changes in Trend without Catching a Falling Knife or Stepping in Front of a Freight Train.

In watching the markets over the years I’ve observed that most reversals take place after three consecutive higher closes or three consecutive lower closes, and this tendency is valid for all times frames. The key to this setup is that it is based on consecutive closes and not just intraday or daily high and low price action for an individual price bar on a chart.  In other words, the highs and lows are not important. I’m not interested in three higher price highs or three lower price lows.  I wanted to see where the action settles, or closes, because that is where the rubber meets the road.

TRADING RULES FOR BUYS (SELLS ARE REVERSED)
1. Set up a 24-hour chart on intraday charts so the overnight activity can be accounted for in this indicator setup. This can be used in all time frames. The larger the time frame, the larger the parameters and potential move. For daily charts I will use the regular session hours.
2. After three consecutive higher closes, I go long at the market, at the close of the third bar in the sequence.
3. The trade is valid until three consecutive lower closes occur, at which point I exit the trade. If the market is still open for an intraday trade, I will simultaneously exit a long and establish a new short position. I don’t use a stop loss on this for intraday charts trades because the reversal signal is my exit strategy, whether it is a loss or a gain. For daily charts I will place a stop at the low of the bar that caused the signal to fire off, which is the first of three in the sequence of closes. 
4. If I’m in an intraday trade (15-minute chart or smaller) and the market closes before giving an exit signal, I will exit at the market 4:10 p.m. Eastern.
5. For time frames that are 60 minutes and above, I will stay in them overnight and exit at the next signal. This could be the next day for a 60-minute chart, and it could be a month later for daily charts.

For the indicator, I did add one key filter.  I found at times I could get shaken out of a play that was consolidating (i.e., a bull flag) when prices made a series of lower closes within that consolidation.  So, if there are three lower closes, but this price action does not go below the signal bar’s low, then the signal is ignored.  For this indicator on a long signal, then, the trigger bar would be the first bar that has a higher low than the previous bar.  The next bar that closes above the high of this trigger bar paints this previous low bar which now becomes the swing low point.  In most cases all of this happens with “three higher closes” but there times when it is not as clean and these instances are taken into account with the one confirmation that really matters—price. 

SPECIFIC EXAMPLES OF SCALPER BUY AND SELL SETUPS

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