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Market reaction to FOMC rate decision

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Market reaction to FOMC rate decision LIVE!

(01/30/2008)  Powered by: CoveritLive

  

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7:19	FED CUTS RATES BY ANOTHER 0.5% TO 3%, 1.25% RATE CUT IN LESS THAN 2 WEEKS

7:19	EUR/USD SKYROCKETS TO 1.4850, extreme OB level at the moment

7:20	GBP/USD - trading @ 1.9915, stil room before extreme level 1.9950 comes into play

7:20	JPY CROSSES - way up at the moment, 213.65, 159.44 and 107.37

7:20	GBP/JPY - testing dynamic resistance @ 213.70

7:21	EUR/JPY - trading way out of bounds @ 159.45 (extreme level is 159.25)

7:21	All in all, the market is selling the USD at the moment.

7:21	EUR/USD - hits even higher @ 1.4860, is trading way past extreme OB levels

7:21	USD/CHF - not falling much (same as USD/JPY), as crosses are trading higher

7:22	EUR/CHF - testing key 1.6170-80 area again

7:22	FOLLOW ALL THE PRICE ACTION IN RATES&CHARTS SECTION

7:23	EXTENDED FOMC COVERAGE @ FXSTREET.COM HERE

7:24	GBP/USD hits 1.9827, has some further potential, EUR/USD is way out of bounds, shorts from here @ 1.4870 may work for fast pips

7:24	FOMC RATE DECISION. READ THE FULL NEWS HERE

7:25	FOMC FULL STATEMENT, READ IT HERE

7:25	EUR/USD - selling off fast from 1.4870 to 1.4855 as expected, fast pips came in

7:25	EUR/USD - extreme OB level is 1.4850, we could still see it a bit lower

7:25	GBP/USD - has not hit extreme OB level 1.9950, but retraces fast as well

7:26	GBP/JPY - suggested shorts from dynamic reisstance @ 213.70 also worked fine for fast pips

7:27	EUR/JPY - standing around extreme OB levle 159.40, may be worth for fast pips

7:27	EUR/GBP - breaks above 0.7455, suspicious break here

7:28	[Comment From Guest] Hi Tony, do you think a longer uptrend is starting today against the usd ? thx, Dan

7:28	Hi Dan, I don't think so, just my view, but I don't think the market reaction points in that direction for now

7:29	KEEP SENDING YOUR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS IF YOU HAVE ANY

7:29	EUR/USD back to 1.4870, again fast shorts may be tried (light volume only)

7:29	GBP/USD shorts from 1.9930-60 look good also

7:30	The interesting thing is that right before the news GBP/USD was just about to trigger a bearish signal, so it makes this spike up very very suspicious

7:31	And given the fact the biggest spike has been seen in EUR/USD (trading way above extreme levels), that's why I found the level worth a short, also GBP/USD above 1.9920 is technically correct

7:31	[Comment From Craig] Grabbed fast pips on EUR/JPY..thanks Tony!

7:31	See? This is what I like to read, well done Craig!

7:32	Fed cuts key funds rate by half point to 3.0 pct (Thomson Financial News)

7:32	[Comment From Guest] what is your view on cad?jazz

7:32	Jazz, the unit is breaking the 0.9910 BIG support, so it does not look good to go long, next support is 0.9790

7:32	[Comment From Private Bank FX] We still have a tight credit crunch. We have a real economy slowdown. Do you think another cut is ahead in March?

7:33	Hi, very good question, I believe the Fed has done too much and NO, nothing in march, unless they are the recklest CB in the world

7:33	[Comment From Alaa] Does anyone think that the EUR will hit 1.49?

7:33	Hi, at least not me (not today I mean)

7:34	EUR/USD i again down from 1.4870, so gain fast pisp on that short could've been cashed

7:34	or shorting Cable @ 1.9930 would've given you again fast pips

7:34	Believe in technicals, that's what we can more or less understand

7:34	[Comment From Guest] Hi Tony, so lets say, the first hour is only an emotional reaction and the next few days a dollar will still retrace? We kinda expected a 50 point cut, didnt we? Thx, Dan

7:34	Dan, you're spot on and that's what I think

7:35	However, I will prefer to take contra-trades or long USD trades at solid levels, not at any cost, have that for sure

7:35	[Comment From Private Bank FX] Grabbed 45 pips on the Pounds spike. Will the direction continue?

7:36	There is a magnet line coming in @ 1.9890 now, I would say no, but the knee-jerk move is not over, could just go for 1.9960 next level, but so far is not even able to hold above 1.9920, so be cautious, but anyway VERY WELL DONE CONGRATS

7:36	[Comment From vern] what would you see as a reasonable retracement for EUR/USD

7:37	1.4840, 1.4820 and next 1.4780, if you want to go long, I would suggest taking the 1.4820 level as a good odds level for fast pips

7:37	JPY CROSSES ARE SELLING OFF

7:37	The sggestion to short EUR/JPY from extreme OB level 159.40 was worth 60 pips straight ahead

7:37	GBP/JPY suggestion to short around dynamic line 213.70 was also worth some 90 pips, not bad!

7:38	Crosses prevent at the moment EUR and GBP from climbing higher

7:38	[Comment From Alaa] I am long from 1.4792 shall i go out??

7:38	At least put stop @ 1.4817 to protect it

7:38	[Comment From Guest] with your view on cable do you think EUR/GBP will retest the 7390 support again in the near future. market does not seem to favor GBP longs

7:39	YES, that is what I am for, and even lower, but for the moment this crazy and lazy cross is not doing much

7:39	[Comment From Private Bank FX] Tony, how long before the BOE and ECB follow the Fed's lead?

7:40	Well, they want to show 'independence' from what the Fed does, but they are doing it wrong, and guess they should lower in their next meetings before things get out of whack

7:40	[Comment From mrcable] equity markets not holding above their resistance, 1260-1270 on s&p vital for xjpy to rally and hence take gbp and euro with it

7:40	mrcable thank you very much for the S&P comment

7:40	EUR/USD - extreme OverBought level (OB) is 1.4865, right where we are at the moment

7:41	USD/JPY close to important support 106.90, let's see what it does there

7:41	EUR/USD moves again out of bounds above 1.4870

7:41	not seeing much upside left

7:41	I believe Cable should outperform the Euro from ehre, by looking atthe charts

7:42	Dollar weakens as Fed delivers half point rate cut (Thomson Financial News)

7:42	Link to story

7:43	EUR/USD hits 1.4880 resistance while trading out of bounds, fast-light shorts may be attempted

7:43	GBP/USD trading around 1.9920

7:43	USD/CHF is testing major support area 1.0850-60, this is key NOW

7:43	if EuR/CHF is to go higher past 1.6175 it needs USD/CHF to holds this key area

7:44	[Comment From Guest] Hi Tony! You think short eurgbp from 0,7465 is a good idea? Thanks

7:44	DEFINITELY YES, however, am ready to short if higher. Look at the daily MACD, we could have new highs followed by a bearish divergence that could be worth good pips, so am sticking to my shorts from 0.7465

7:45	THE EUR/GBP m/t TRADE AND REAL-TIME MARKET COVERAGE IS TAKING PLACE IN MY LIVE! WEBLOG EVERYDAY. Follow this link to see it.

7:45	[Comment From mrcable] 1.0840-0850 vital for swissie, has held since 14th of jan... we could bounce , yet no macd signal

7:46	mrcable, again very good point, watching it closely, it is indeed a key level because it could menan a multi-bottom pattern

7:46	EUR/USD hits down to 1.4870 from 1.4880 suggested short level, agan fast pips cashed in

7:47	GBP/USD going at a faster pace than EUR/USD now, EUR/GBP starting to feel a bit of pressure @ 0.7465

7:47	GBP/USD - 1.9955-65 is a good short area

7:47	GBP/JPY - the dynamic resistance is coming in @ 214.05 now

7:48	[Comment From mrcable] toni, just a note , we follow your comments everyday from our desk here. LOVE IT

7:48	I feel honooured for that

7:48	[Comment From ayo] what market is god to place a trade now

7:48	EUR/GBP in my opinion or fast takes in EUR/USD

7:48	[Comment From Guest] do you think 1.49 or around 1.4920 which is an older resistance is gonna be tougher for eur/usd ?

7:48	ABSOLUTELY, that is a major level and technically should not break at first attempt

7:49	ALright, EUR/USD moving out of bounds to 1.4885, fast shorts again may work, but am watching Cable as we head into the extreme OB level 1.9957 (18 pips shy of it now)

7:50	EUR/GBP feeling pressure from 0.7465

7:50	USD/JPY and USD/CHF at major levels for crosses 106.90 and 1.0850

7:51	Dollar Index slumps to 2-month low after Fed cut rates by 50 basis points (Thomson Financial News)

7:51	Link to story

7:51	EUR/USD hits 1.4890 tough level, worth a short (light) IMO

7:51	GBP/USD just 15 pips shy of the extreme OB level, where shorts will be favoured

7:52	USD/JPY breaking 106.90 support and USD/CHF doing the same @ 1.0850, watching them very very closely

7:52	[Comment From mrcable] short cable @ 45 stop 70

7:53	Great job, you have your deserved fast pips here or at least you can protect the possie

7:53	[Comment From Guest] hi Tony..is AUD a good short at this level?Mr.CAD

7:53	AUD/USD is trading way out of bounds as extreme OB level in the 1hr chart is 0.8970, so YES, technically is correct, as long as 0.9040 holds

7:54	[Comment From mrcable] out of cable for 12

7:54	E-X-C-E-L-L-E-N-T !!!

7:54	that's what scalping can bring in days like these

7:55	GBP/USD extreme OB level is 1.9960 now

7:55	[Comment From Wes] Hi tony, What should I do right now?

7:56	I like EUR/GBP shorts for position trade, EUR/USD shorts for fast pips, not changing my view

7:56	USD/JPY HOLDS 106.90, that is good

7:56	USD/CHF fighting to stay above 1.0850

7:57	FULL UP-TO-THE-MINUTE COVERAGE OF THE FOMC RATE DECISION

7:57	EUR/USD - bearish CCI divergence in the 15m chart

7:58	EUR/JPY extreme OB level is 159.60 now

7:58	EUR/JPY (II) - possible MACD divergence in the 15m chart, if confirmed I'd take it

7:59	EUR/USD -extreme OB level is 1.4865, we are 30 pips above it...

7:59	[Comment From oriencio] whats the next resistance for eurusd?

7:59	1.49-4920, and given the extreme overbought (OB) status, it should be too tough for now

7:59	[Comment From Alaa] are we going to see EUR @ 1.50 next week??

8:00	Sorry, don't have the crystal ball ...:-)

8:00	[Comment From Guest] No strength in cable - favour quick shorts there over EUR?

8:00	EUR/USD is way out of bounds, while Cable is not, tough call, but would prefer the Euro despite looking stronger

8:00	[Comment From Luka Bobnar] EUR exploding - where do you think to enter a short Toni?

8:01	Already short in all this mess @ 1.4894

8:01	(been shorting all I could while typing here, you should just see me now, I look like a maniac over the keyboard!!!)

8:01	[Comment From mrcable] looks like double top 15min cable, should 50 hold

8:01	AGREE 100%

8:01	[Comment From Luka Bobnar] Toni you should buy a crystal ball ASAP :) it's good for "long" pips :)

8:02	Well, last time I went to the 'easy forex make money pips in no time' shop, they had closed because someone had sued them for being dishonest... LOL

8:02	[Comment From mrcable] out of long usdchf for 13

8:02	YOU'RE THE MAN!

8:02	[Comment From mrcable] out short cable for 9

8:03	WELL, NEXT GOOD TRADE I STOP POSTING YOUR COMMENTS! LOL, VERY GOOD, YOU'RE DOING EXCELLENT TODAY

8:03	[Comment From mrcable] thanks. toni, you mind us posting our calls here?

8:03	I would not regret it more if you would not do that! especially when they all go positive!

8:03	[Comment From kevin] ero/usd is down back, is this the sign to sell euro?

8:04	I don't like the upside given the extreme condition, a break below 1.4880 is what you may be looking for

8:04	Alright, there we go with 1.49 test in EUR/USD

8:04	All the comments on 1.50 will see the light again

8:04	[Comment From Mr.Cad] out of AUD for -10

8:04

great!

8:05	[Comment From Wes] I'm new, when you say something has been OB then it's time to sell. Correct?

8:05	Es, technically YES, the only thing is taht today's psychology may try to play tricks with techs, that's all

8:05	EUR/USD - bearish CCI divergence persists

8:06	GBP/USD - extreme OB level is now 1.9960, might go for it

8:06	Looks like the bulls want to go for some stops

8:07	EUR/USD continues to keep a 30pip gap (!!!!!!) with respect to its extreme OB level, that I had not seen it in Euro for quite a while (5th candle out of bounds)

8:07	[Comment From Stewart] short on Eurusd - if gets past 1.4910 - i'm wrong and out?

8:07	YOu're spot on!

8:07	[Comment From mrcable] call me nuts, but long euro at the figure, stop 88

8:07	risky one indeed

8:07	[Comment From Luka Bobnar] MY laptop is OVERHEATING! calling in the fire department :) USD\CAD looks like priniting my target at 0.9850 - great work Toni - keep up the good work - I can call in the fire department for you - just post HELP! :)

8:08	Luka, I remember you liking shorts some days ago when it had not even broken the daily key support line, man you do have the crystal ball!

8:08	[Comment From John] How is this translated into the U.S. dollars 1,500,000.00 EUROS (One Million, Five Hundred Thousand Euro)

8:09	around 2,3M USD if I'm right on my mind calculations

8:09	There we go, GBP/USD hits extreme OB level 1.9960, now let the music lay, fast trades from here should be fine

8:09	GBP/JPY - dynamic resistance is 214.05 as stated before

8:10	ALRIGHT, WE HAVE TO LEAVE IT HERE

8:11	I'll continue with more analysis in my weblog around NY closing time, when we'll have US fixing levels

8:11	LINK TO MY WEBLOG

8:12	Those of you who attend it or use Fedreader to get the RSS updates, you should receive something from me again around 22.30GMT.

8:12	It's been a pleasure doing this with you today, let's do it again soon!

8:12	BYE 4 NOW. ENJOY THE REST OF THE DAY AND YOUR TRADING.

8:13	ONE LAST THING

8:13	GBP/USD SHORTS SQUARED @ +15

8:13	EUR/USD shorts squared now @ +19

8:13	;-) not a bad day indeed

8:14	GOOD-BYE ALL!

8:16	This Live Blog has now ended.

Watch Live Coverage of the US GDP

Expert: Jerry Furst, President at Investors Education Network
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
The US GDP report is closely watched as it tells institutions, governments, investors, and traders about the overall health of the US Economy. The release of this number is likely to cause a temporary spike in volatility. As traders we can stand aside, or trade. But we must be aware of these scheduled economic events.

Tune In and Trade Along! This presentation will have an in-depth look at this scheduled volatility event.

7:30 AM (EST) - Before: What makes this scheduled event so important
8:00 AM (EST) - During: Watch the markets react with volatility
spiking charts in all markets!
8:30 AM (EST) - After: What Happened and What to Expect Next!

ADP & GDP live coverage

Live Blog:

ADP & GDP live coverage

(01/30/2008)  Powered by: CoveritLive

  

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1:02	Welcome to the live coverage of both the ADP and GDP data releases.

1:11	Hi there everyone, this is Tony Juste covering live! the release of the ADP and GDP data and the market reaction resulting from them.

1:12	We start @ 13:15GMT (in just 3 minutes) with the ADP

1:12	The GDP is released 15 minutes later @ 13:30GMT

1:14	USD higher ahead of data

1:15	ADP January US Private Sector Jobs Expected +43,000 ADP Sees January US Private Sector Jobs +130,000

1:15	USD skyrockets on the back of the data

1:16	EUR/USD falls to 1.4790 on data, GBP/USD down to 1.9905 and USD/CHF up to 1.0915, seeing good USD potential from here

1:16	GBP/USD confirms a negative trigger after the data, and sells-off very hard

1:17	USD/CHF almost testing downtrend line @ 1.0930

1:17	Price reversal in USD majors

1:17	USD/JPY hits tough 107.20 resistance on the back of good US data

1:18	EUR/USD could trigger bearish signals if GDP confirms the positive USD tone

1:20	Prices stabilize after initial USD rally, way off the highs of the session.

1:20	GBP/USD resistance level remains 1.9910-20, EUR/USD 1.4820 and USD/CHF support is in the 1.0890-70 area.

1:22	Alright, taht pretty much wraps it up for the ADP coverage, I guess we'll have more after the GDP, so I hand over to my colleague Noemi Jansana, who will be covering the GDP release. I'll be back after she covers the data release with more market action analysis in just few minutes. Stay tuned.

1:35	Hello again from FXstreet.com and welcome to the GDP Live coverage

1:37	Hi again, this is Tony Juste covering the impact of GDP

1:37	USD sold off first, with USD/CHF going back below broken downtrend line @ 1.0930, which again is resistance now

1:37	EUR/USD is up to 1.48, but not with much strength at the moment

1:38	GBP/USD can't make it back above 1.99, relatively weak it is at the moment

1:38	US GDP data shows growth @ 0.6% rate in the 4Q, very slow growth

1:39	Official data link: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

1:39	FXstreet.com covers the event up to the minute: http://www.fxstreet.com/news/

1:39	http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/

1:40	FOLLOW THE GDP HERE

1:41	USD/CHF continues to be dragged lower. Only back above 1.0930 goes bullish again.

1:42	Good question, how will the USD will finally go? If USD/CHF goes above 1.0930, we'll see it higher vs the Europeans.

1:42	WANNA KNOW HOW THE CURRENCIES ARE MOVING? GO TO THE RATES&CHARTS SECTION

1:43	I am also covering it all in my real-time Weblog. TONY JUSTE WEBLOG

1:43	USD/CHF is holding 1.0910-1.0900 support level, I guess we should see the USD edging higher from here

1:44	GBP/USD - tested again 1.9910 on this mini recovery rally but is falling, I presume we'll see it lower in the afternoon

1:45	EUR/USD can't move above a minor resistance 1.48, therefore selling pressure might send it down to 1.4760-50

1:45	AUD/USD has fallen from 0.89 on the back of the news, however this pair is moving very little today

1:46	USD/JPY upticks are sending the JPY crosses higher. The unit might hit tough area 107.40-45, from where fast shorts could be taken.

1:46	EUR/JPY is above 158.40, only a break below or test of 158.90 make shorts attractive for now.

1:47	GBP/JPY has tested the dynamic resistance @ 213.40 and has failed to regain it, therefore shorts have good odds of success.

1:48	USD/CHF testing 1.0930 resistance again, if it moves above it it could see 1.0950 again

1:48	GBP/USD I believe it is moving south from here, shorts from 1.9920-30 are very good in my opinion intraday

1:49	EUR/USD I also believe it has little upside room, and we should see it testing lower levels around 1.4750

1:49	NO matter how you look at tit, GBP/USD has broken ALL support lines intraday, taht's bearish

1:53	USD/CHF can't make it back above broken line @ 1.0930, Europeans bounce off, I have personal interest to sell GBP/USD again (done it 5 times today) if 1.9915-20 prints.

1:54	EUR/CHF is down from 1.6170 test (resistance level), and that is weighing a bit on USD/CHF, apart from the bearish MA's cross at the moment.

1:56	For those trading GBP/USD: the last support line (marginally broken) is @ 1.9885 now, if that line gives way, aggrssive shorts should be considered.

1:56	As I said, my interest in the Europeans lies in Cable around 1.9920, but I'd take and welcome a break of 1.9885

1:58	This intraday support line in Cable you'll find it drawing it connecting 28/1 and 29/1 lows. Do it in a real-time chart in the RATES&CHARTS section.

1:58	For those of you who follow my weblog, Cable looks good for a bearish MA's cross intraday (a bearish moving averages trigger), and so is EUR/USD

1:59	Target for Cable is 1.9885 breaks should be 1.9850

1:59	EUR/USD - if the bearish trigger is confirmed, 1.4750 should print

2:00	I have only interest in SHORT positions at the moment in the majors, as TRENDEX

2:00	users saw live today in several trading calls I made live there.

2:01

ALRIGHT, here finishes the live coverage of the market action on the back of the US data. I'll be back again TONIGHT, covering the market reaction LIVE! of the FOMC rate decision from around 19:20GMT. Look forward to seeing you then. Enjoy your day and trading. Bye 4 now. Keep up-to-date on rates here.

2:02	This Live Blog has now ended.

Creating and Using a Powerful Trading Plan - Part 2

Expert: Rob Booker, Currency Analyst at Piptopia
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
Most people know that they should have some type of trading plan. But what kind of plan? Is a trading plan something you use on a daily basis, or a weekly basis, or that you write one time and put away in a drawer? Most people never write a plan. Most people who write a plan never look at it again.

In this special Monthly Webinar, Rob argues that having a plan is critically important for your day to day trading -- and much less important for the "big picture". This goes against much of what we are taught as traders. In the presentation, Rob will include a description of what a trading plan can include, how a trading plan can boost your trading to a higher level, how you can keep track of your progress and implementation of your plan, and much more.

Topics of Part 2:

• What a Trading Plan Is NOT: Common Misconceptions
• The Essentials of a Powerful Trading Plan

Part 1 is available here.

Creating and Using a Powerful Trading Plan - Part 1

Expert: Rob Booker, Currency Analyst at Piptopia
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
Most people know that they should have some type of trading plan. But what kind of plan? Is a trading plan something you use on a daily basis, or a weekly basis, or that you write one time and put away in a drawer? Most people never write a plan. Most people who write a plan never look at it again.

In this special Monthly Webinar, Rob argues that having a plan is critically important for your day to day trading -- and much less important for the "big picture". This goes against much of what we are taught as traders. In the presentation, Rob will include a description of what a trading plan can include, how a trading plan can boost your trading to a higher level, how you can keep track of your progress and implementation of your plan, and much more.

Topics of Part 1:
- How to Share Your Plan with Others
- How to Use a Trading Plan Every Day, Week, and Month

Part 2 is available here.

Weekly Technical Briefing

Expert: Dan Blystone, Founder at TradersLog.com
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
In this webinar, Dan Blystone discusses Automated Trading Systems and the Forex Market.

Raghee Horner's Four Step Trading: Forex

Expert: Raghee Horner, co-Founder and Lead Trader at Raghee.com
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
Join Raghee Horner as she walks you through her Four Step Trading approach and teaches you how to find the best opportunities in the market each day. Watch real time set ups as you learn how to identify Raghee's set ups.

Selling options for fun and profit

Expert: John Jagerson, Founder at Profiting With Forex
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
Option sellers have the advantage of collecting their potential profits up front, they benefit from eroding time value and can control their trade in ways forex buyers and sellers often cannot. In this session we will talk about how options sellers construct a trade, control risk and adjust their position as time progresses. Learn why forex options sellers benefit from the passage of time regardless of market direction and how margin rules apply to your trades.

Day Trading Series - Chapter II: Day Trading Basics (Part 2)

Expert: Markus Heitkoetter, CEO at Rockwell Trading Inc
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
Markus Heitkoetter presents a new Educational Series! This is a 6 chapters series about Day Trading and we will teach one session per month.

In this session we continue talking about the basics of day trading. For traders who already has some trading experience but are unhappy with the results of their trading.
The concepts presented in this session apply to Forex and Futures trading.

• The Three Steps to Day Trading Success
• How to Make a Living as a Day Trader
• How to Make $150,000 per Year
• How to Achieve Your Trading Goals
• How to Increase Your Winning Percentage
• The Seven Rules of Day Trading

Other chapters of that series are available:

• CHAPTER I: Day Trading Basics (Part 1)
• CHAPTER III: Developing a Profitable Trading Strategy (Part 1)
• CHAPTER IV: Developing a Profitable Trading Strategy (Part 2)
• CHAPTER V: The 10 Power Principles of Successful Trading Strategies
• CHAPTER VI: Tips and Tricks for Successful Day Trading

Effectively Using Stop Losses

Expert: S. Wade Hansen, Founder at Profiting With Forex
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
Stop losses...everybody says it is essential to use them, but how? Where should you set your initial stop loss? When should you move your stop loss? How should you move your stop loss? We will discuss various stop-loss implementation methods in this presentation, weigh the pros and cons and hopefully help you identify the method that is best for you.