ECB and BoE Live Coverage
Read the full ECB and BoE Live Coverage as it was originally published at FXstreet.com homepage:
| Live Blog: | ECB and BoE coverage | (02/07/2008) Powered by: CoveritLive |
11:48 | Welcome to today's FXstreet.com Live Coverage! |
11:48 | Today we'll be covering the BoE and ECB's Interest Rate decisions... |
11:48 | ... and after that Tony Juste will analyze the market reaction to Trichet's words. |
11:49 | Tony will be joining us at 13:30 GMT, so stay tuned. |
11:49 | The Bank of England will be the first to announce their monetary policy today. |
| 11:50 | [Poll] | What do you think the BoE will announce on Interest Rates? < 5.00 5.00 5.25 5.50 > 5.50 |
11:51 | Everybody is expecting a .25 cut, but some voices say it could be a .50 cut instead. |
11:52 | According to Dow Jones Newswires, a London bank trader said talk of a surprise 50bps rate cut from the MPC Thursday is beginning to make itself heard in the FX market. |
11:52 | It seems recent weak U.K. data and aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could sway the committee to break with tradition and shave off 50bps. |
11:52 | These are the latest stories that we have on the BoE decision: |
11:52 | Talk Of 50Bps BOE Rate Cut Increases,25Bps Still Likely (Dow Jones) |
11:52 | Major currencies range-bound ahead of ECB, BoE decisions (Thomson Financial News) |
11:53 | European govt bonds edge up, gilts outperform ahead of BoE, ECB rate decisions (Thomson Financial News) |
11:54 | We'll have the decision in 5 minutes. |
11:55 | Some analysts comments on today's BoE decision: |
11:55 | Alan Clarke, economist at BNP Paribas Reuters - "I think it will be a 25 basis point cut. Speculation of 50 isn't really justified." |
11:56 | Ian McCafferty, chief economic advisor at CBI Reuters - "Although there are inflationary pressures in the short term, there are clear signs that the economy is beginning to slow. A modest cut now would help ensure a soft economic landing." |
11:56 |
Philip Shaw, chief economist at
Investec |
11:58 | An interesting insight by ActionForex.com: Daily Forex Technical Report - Focus on BoE and ECB |
11:59 | We'll know anytime now... |
12:00 | It's 5.25, a .25 cut! |
12:01 | Official release: Bank Rate reduced to 5.25% |
12:02 | Check the (modest) GBP reaction on our Streaming Forex Charts |
12:03 | Tony Juste's quick comment: "Cable continues to trade below resistance line 1.9545 extreme OS level for the unit is 1.9480 now." |
12:04 | He continues: "GBP/JPY sikes up from 207.30 low, I believe a low is in place in this cross." |
12:04 | More from Tony: "Cable attempts to go for the 1.9545 trendline again, 3rd time lucky?" |
12:06 | Remember Tony is twittering the market realtime. |
12:06 | According to Tony (again), USD/JPY is being positively affected by the surge in GBP/JPY, as also expected and discussed in the OMW/Weblog. |
12:07 | GBP/USD is breaking downtrend line @ 1.9545, EUR/GBP falls fast. |
12:08 | EUR/GBP - 60m bearish MA's cross is a good trigger to follow when confirmed. |
12:09 | GBP/USD is now back below 1.9545 trendline, bearish hidden CCI divergence comes into play again, jo-jo knee-jerk reaction continues. |
12:09 | [Comment From Guest] is it real time to byuy gbp |
12:09 | NO, longs in GBP/USD from here not suggested, not until this settles down. |
12:10 | Further, the unit has not decisively broken the downtrend @ 1.9545. |
12:10 | [Comment From Gfd] Why is the GBP/USD strengthening despite the rate cut? |
12:10 | Cable is somewhat strong because the market had already priced in the cut, so that's not what you should look for when trading it, just the psychological reaction. |
12:11 | Bank Of England Cuts Bank Rate To 5.25% From 5.5% (Dow Jones) |
12:11 | Another tech tip bt Tony: "USD/JPY - possible 15m MACD divergence, watch out for confirmation." |
12:12 | EUR/USD trades down to 1.4610 on the back of the BoE decision, EUR/CHF could see 1.5990 extreme OS level coming into play. |
12:13 | BOE cuts its current bank rate to 5.25% (FXstreet.com) |
12:13 | [Comment From Guest] medium term trend for cable? |
12:14 | Down as long as 1.9750-1.9920 holds as top, but that's not the timeframe you want to trade with this volatility, unless you have really big deep pockets. |
12:15 | [Comment From Alex] TONY: Is it god, going short in GBPUSD from 1,950 to 1,948? |
12:15 | If support 1.9505-10 gives way, I believe that is good idea indeed. |
12:15 | [Comment From Guest] I have drawn fibonacci and now its Gbp is 23.6% do you thing is gonna reach 38.2 or 50% retracement |
12:15 | 38.2% is always a better retracement level than 23.6% in the end, but with fast moves sometimes 23.6% is all you can ask for. |
12:16 | BoE cuts Bank rate by a quarter point to 5.25 pct (Thomson Financial News) |
12:17 | [Comment From mrcable] 9508 should give way, those are the day's lows |
12:17 | Agree :) |
12:17 | GBP/USD - Confirmed, bearish hidden CCI divergence + reversal candle, 1.9480 is target, stop on the break past 1.9550. |
12:17 | [Comment From Guest] at what point would you long $chf? |
12:18 | Around 1.0910 support only, there is where we have the extreme Oversold level intradya as well. |
12:18 | [Comment From Guest] Tony, how do you decide the confirmation of a tech. trigger? Whenever there is an MA cross or MACD cross or divergence can you call it a tech. trigger? |
12:19 | Yes, that's right, going for full confirmation always. |
12:19 | BoE rate cut 'welcome but not sufficient' - BCC (Thomson Financial News) |
12:20 | David Kern, economic adviser to the British Chambers of Commerce Thomson Financial News - "Today's move, though vital to sustain confidence, is no longer adequate on its own. We understand the MPC's reluctance to give a misleading impression of panic but it is critical that they avoid undue delay." |
12:20 | [Comment From Guest] do you thing that its going down below 1.9505 |
12:20 | You have the answer already now :) |
12:24 | [Comment From Guest] cashing in GBP short made + a lot of pips :) |
12:25 | [Comment From simon hemmingway] 1.9498... and dropping |
12:25 | [Comment From mrcable] 9430 trgt it seems |
12:25 | [Comment From Guest] EUR is smashed! |
12:25 | Ian McCafferty, chief economic advisor at CBI BBC News - "It is clear that it is a delicate balance with inflation pressures. A quarter point now and then watching very carefully for how inflation develops in the coming months is the best strategy." |
12:27 | In 15 minutes we'll be hearing from the ECB. |
12:29 | It seems a rate cut is unlikely. |
12:31 | By the way, I encourage you to post your charts and share your technical point of view in our Technical Forum. |
12:31 | [Comment From raj] dont expect any rate cut from ecb |
12:31 | Agree :) |
12:32 | [Comment From mrcable] dont' you guys love trichet's "witchilant" word? |
12:32 | LOL |
12:32 | Some analysts comments on the ECB announcment: |
12:33 | Marco Kramer, economist at UniCredit Reuters - "It is too early to think they will surrender and actually start cutting rates. The ECB can quickly become more pragmatic and not ignore inflation risks but stop talking in a hawkish manner." |
12:33 | Marcus Hettinger, global FX strategist at Credit Suisse Reuters - "The euro has been a little bit weak in the past couple of days and probably the market is looking for the ECB to tone down a little bit its hawkishness, but we don't think this will happen at this meeting." |
12:34 | Osamu Takashima, chief analyst at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ
Thomson Financial News - "But given high inflation, it looks to be too premature to start talking about the possibility of a rate cut. If so, the euro is most likely to maintain its rising trend against the dollar." |
12:34 | John Kyriakopoulos, currency strategist at National Australia Bank Thomson Financial News - "The ECB has been maintaining a bias to raise interest rates since inflation is well above its 2 percent target. However, traders price 87 basis points of ECB rate cuts over the next year, which is serving to cap the euro below 1.5000 US dollars as the Fed cuts interest rates. Should Trichet start to soften his hawkish rhetoric, then traders would feel vindicated in pricing ECB rate cuts later this year and sell euro/usd." |
12:34 | [Comment From Guest] My long term thought on EURUSD from here is DOWN Big Time....Britain and Europe are linked economies..anytime ECB will have to get off the HIGH HORSE and FACE reality...Inflation fighting from here will CHOCK the EUROPEAN ECONOMIES. |
12:35 | [Comment From Algis] Rate Cut is Out of questions (according to all economist surveyed by bloomberg), but... all the fuss will start at the press conference :) |
12:35 | [Comment From mrcable] speaking to the traders on the desks at various institutions , we all are just looking for a reason to sell euro , boom here are the stops being flushed |
12:36 | These are the latest stories that we have on the ECB decision: |
12:36 | ECB WATCH: Record ABS Use In Repos As Banks Stay On ECB Drip (Dow Jones) |
12:37 | EU Business Lobby: ECB Needs To Focus On Inflation (Dow Jones) |
12:38 | European govt bonds edge up, gilts outperform ahead of BoE, ECB rate decisions (Thomson Financial News) |
12:38 | US dollar mixed in Tokyo afternoon trade ahead of central bank meetings (Thomson Financial News) |
12:38 | [Comment From raj] dont expect any hawkish statement from trichet but there will some statements about monetary policy which lead to euro lower |
| 12:39 | [Poll] | What do you think the ECB will announce on Interest Rates? < 3.75 3.75 4.00 4.25 > 4.25 |
12:41 | We'll have the data in 4 minutes more or less. |
12:42 | [Comment From Victor] I agree that we are just looking for an excuse to sell euro |
12:42 | [Comment From Guest] what will happen if ECB Rate still 4% ? |
12:42 | [Comment From raj] after ecb decision euro may go lower to 14535 |
12:43 | An interesting preview by Danske Bank: ECB: Preview of meeting on 7 February |
12:43 | [Comment From srinivasan] I still feel we will sell the Euro |
12:43 | [Comment From George] The trend is your friend euro is going down. |
12:43 | [Comment From gopal] expect hawkish comments from Trichet |
12:44 | [Comment From Guest] Folks who cite high inflation as reason for ECB not cutting must not have been around the last time ECB cut; however, I must admit the European export economy still has some tail wind as the emerging market bubbles are still not (yet) affected by US slowdown |
12:45 | Rates ON HOLD! |
12:45 | No surprises. |
12:47 | The ECB website is down at the moment, kind of a tradition. |
12:50 | According to Dow Jones: "The ECB didn't immediately provide a reason, but ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will comment at a 1330 GMT policy briefing. Observers will weigh Trichet's remarks carefully, as nerves are on edge after a spate of selloffs on global stock markets. Most of the institutions polled expect the ECB to cut interest rates by the end of the second or third quarter." |
12:51 | ECB keeps its interest rate on hold at 4.0% (FXstreet.com) |
12:51 | [Comment From Sebouh] It seems markets are just finding an excuse to sell the Euro for the last few days |
12:52 | We're going for a pause now. |
12:53 | Tony Juste will be back just here at 13:30 GMT |
12:54 | He'll be covering Trichet's speech and answering all your questions. |
12:54 | Bye 4 now! |
12:55 | This Live Blog has now ended. |
Comments