FXstreet.com Live Sessions Archives: ECB and Non-Farm Payrolls Live Coverage with Sunil Mangwani and Valeria Bednarik

Read full ECB Meeting coverage we held on July 3rd 2008.

ECB and Non-Farm Payrolls Live Coverage with Sunil Mangwani and Valeria Bednarik

(07/03/2008)
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12:15

FXstreet.com - Good morning, good afternoon or good evening to everyone all over the world. Today we will be performing a very special event here from FXstreet.com homepage and calendar. Two of the most important data in Europe and in the US will be released the same day and we will be watching the markets to tell you what is happening every minute.

12:15

FXstreet.com - First we will start with the ECB Interest Rates Decision coverage in about 5 minutes. The data will be released at 11:45 GMT but we will offer you a preview of what is expected in the markets. For that, I have here with us today Mr. Sunil Mangwani who is one of our Forex bloggers, contributors, speakers and presenters of the ITCâ��08 (our Barcelona conference).

12:16

FXstreet.com - Forexology, Sunil Mangwani's Blog

12:17

FXstreet.com - Right after the ECB rates decision, Valeria Bednarik, who is also blogger, contributor and speaker on the site will join us to offer a preview of the Non-Farm Payrolls. In the meantime we will follow the market reactions to the ECB decision today.

12:17

FXstreet.com - The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

12:19

FXstreet.com - Mr. Sunil Mangwani is here with us. Thank you very much for your participation to this event today!

12:20

Sunil Mangwani - hello everyone. It is a pleasure to be here & I look forward to some interesting discussions ...and action in the markets.

12:20

FXstreet.com - For all those sending questions and comments, I would like to let you know we will try to give answer to all of them. Comments and opinions are also welcome.

12:21

FXstreet.com - As I told you before, Sunil will be in Barcelona next October participating in the ITCâ��08. If you are planning to go but you are not sure yet, you can watch some videos we recorded last year.

12:21

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12:21

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ITC 2007: The editor's cut Play

12:21

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12:22

FXstreet.com - Sunil will be there so you will have the opportunity to meet him in October.

12:22

FXstreet.com - Let's go inside the first event of this exciting morning

12:22

FXstreet.com - The ECB is expected to raise its main interest rate by 25 basis points for the first time since June 2007 in order to dampen inflation in the Euro Area, which is growing at levels well above the upper limit of ECBâ��s margin for price stability. Jean Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, has affirmed that the bank would monitor carefully all developments and act in a "firm and timely manner," with inflation in the Euro Area growing at a 4.0% year on year pace, and producer prices rising 7.1% in the last 12 months to May, the decision of the ECB seems very likely to be a 25 basis points rate hike. Sunil, what is your outlook?

12:23

FXstreet.com - In the meantime, I invite you all to vote the poll we prepared!

12:23

Sunil Mangwani - Its quite certain that a hike of 25 basis points is imminent.

12:23

[Poll]

Will the ECB low it's interest rate?
Yes, they will cut it 25bp

( 14% )

Yes, they will be more aggressive and cut it 50bp

( 0% )

No, they will hike it

( 64% )

No, the will stay on hold

( 22% )

12:24

Sunil Mangwani - This seems to have been priced in the market & there appear more risks if the rates are not increased.

12:25

FXstreet.com - We will give now answer to some of the questions you sent at the beggining of the event.

12:26

Sunil Mangwani - Israr, the expected upside would be the last high Euro had reached and an attack on the 1.60 level would be expected

12:26

[Comment From israr]
what is the expected upside for Euro?

12:26

FXstreet.com - Sorry for the late question publish

12:27

Sunil Mangwani - But do keep in mind, there are other factors at play here.

12:27

Sunil Mangwani - The US NFP data & the subsequent tone of the speech by Trichet...which are due at almost the same time...could see wild whipsaws

12:28

[Comment From tj]
did yesterday ADP figs give indication of todays NFP?

12:29

Sunil Mangwani - The ADP figures have traditionally set the tone for the much anticipated NFP figures. Yesterdays figures were not encouraging at all, so we could expect lower figures

12:30

FXstreet.com - let's read some of the comments you are sending

12:30

[Comment From Andy]
I feel that EUR might fall today.

12:30

[Comment From Mohamed Ghonim]
I Expect 0.5%

12:31

FXstreet.com - FXstreet.com Editor's team and contributors have prepared some research on what is expected for the ECB today.

12:31

FXstreet.com - ECB: Preview of July 3 meeting by Danske Bank A/S

12:31

FXstreet.com - Friday Notes - The ECB's hike experiment by HVB Group

12:31

FXstreet.com - The ECB will, most likely, raise rates to 4.25% tomorrow (FXstreet.com)

12:32

FXstreet.com - FXstreet.com ECB Preview

12:32

FXstreet.com - lets keep on answering your questions!

12:32

[Comment From inez]
do you have any strategy to enter in this situasion? we enter before or after rate be launched? thank you

12:34

Sunil Mangwani - Inez, trading the news is always a risk. I prefer to wait till the dust settles down. There are traders who want to catch the intial spike..which is quite large. But you have to keep in mind, that excess volatility means larger spreads & also not being placed at the correct fill.

12:35

Sunil Mangwani - There will always be moves subsequently which are the actual trends. I would wait for 5-10mins after the news to get a corerct picture

12:35

Sunil Mangwani - Especially today, when there could be contradicting data.

12:36

[Comment From Sultan]
What Would Happen if The ECB increase its rate 25bp and the NFP Comes with Better than expected ? Could We See a sideways Move on EUR/USD

12:38

Sunil Mangwani - Sultan, the majors are at extreme levels as of now. In such a case, of contradicting data, I dont anticipate sideways moves. The euro is quite overbought & a good NFP data could bring it crashing down. Similarly, if there is no increase in the ECB rate, it could mean a downside move.

12:38

[Comment From JAYZEE]
Where do you see the spot gold price headed today if rates rise 025% as expected, thanx.

12:39

Sunil Mangwani - Good question Jayzee. Euro, gold and crude oil are quite directly related.

12:40

[Image popup]

EURO GOLD USDIndex View

12:40

Sunil Mangwani - have a look at this chart

12:41

Sunil Mangwani - You can see the relation between Gold & euro and the inverse relation with the USD index.

12:41

Sunil Mangwani - On the increase of .25%, if Euro does rally to the previous highs, then it should affect gold, which could also rally.

12:43

Sunil Mangwani - The only downside I see here, is the subsequent speech by Trichet. It has been said, that this would be a one-off increase & should not expect further increases. if the tone is more dovish & the NFP data is good, then this could drag the euro down...and Gold too

12:44

FXstreet.com - Just 1 minute for the ECB Interest Rates Decission announcement... I would like to remind you that right after this event, we will give you live market reaction with Sunil and later today we will be covering Non-Farm Payrolls with Valeria Bednarik.
Non-farm Payrolls today will be also covered by Wayne McDonell in the 26th edition of the most important live webinar of the forex Industry.

12:45

Sunil Mangwani - This would definitely be a very interesting morning

12:45

FXstreet.com - ECB Rates Decision: 4,25%

12:45

FXstreet.com - ECB has just announced an Interest rates hike of 25bps.

12:45

FXstreet.com - European Central Bank Oficial Website

12:46

Sunil Mangwani - All right, done with that.....as expected

12:46

FXstreet.com - Sunil, it was widely expected by the markets...

12:47

FXstreet.com - well, what to do now? Where do you see the currencies going?

12:47

Sunil Mangwani - Thats right. Its going to be the later part of the speech that should make things interesting

12:47

Sunil Mangwani - we are looking at the initial spikes in price.

12:48

FXstreet.com - We will be mixing Sunil's comments with the breaking news coming from our main news sources: Thomson Financial and Dow Jnes

12:48

[Comment From Mike]
Euro will go down now..sell on the news i think

12:48

Sunil Mangwani - since this was expected & already factored in, we should avoid the initial price movements.

12:49

Sunil Mangwani - Thats right Mike...as they say, buy the rumour & sell the news. The euro had been rallying in anticipation.

12:49

FXstreet.com - ECB Hikes Key Interest Rate To 4.25% From 4% (Dow Jones)

12:49

[Comment From Bojan Creator]
Down of course :)

12:50

Sunil Mangwani - But these are just initial spikes. The actual trend & effects will come later on

12:50

FXstreet.com - ECB hikes rates to 4.25% (FXstreet.com)

12:51

FXstreet.com - You can read the oficial data at ECB site

12:51

[Comment From fxstu]
anything frmo speech yet ? how can we hear it online ?

12:51

FXstreet.com - Watch Trichet's Speech live from the ECB website

12:51

Sunil Mangwani - Thats right Ben. During the speech & during the NFP data.

12:52

Sunil Mangwani - Right Andrew, the big boys are waiting in the wings

12:52

[Comment From Ben]
When will we see the real trend ? During Trichet's speach ?

12:52

[Comment From Andrewunknown]
Muted volatility. Sunil, do you think this is solely because of price-in on the run up since June 25 in anticipation of a hike, or do you think the holiday for US markets has a tangible impact?

12:52

[Comment From Sultan]
So we cant decide on the Euro now ,,, are we waiting the Speech

12:53

[Comment From Custodio]
EUR/USD is going down, shouldn't it go up after the 4,25 announcement ?

12:53

Sunil Mangwani - Custodio, the increase was already factored in & hence it is "sell the fact".

12:54

FXstreet.com - Some comments above I published where Trichet's conference could be seen today. It is on ECB's official site.

12:54

FXstreet.com - And it will be at 12:30 GMT

12:55

FXstreet.com - Watch Trichet's Speech live from the ECB website

12:55

[Comment From Andrewunknown]
Resistance @ 1.59 is difficult to surmount here - only breached for about a week (April 16-22). Do you think if Trichet comes off more hawkish in the speech we could see a floor put in here?

12:56

[Comment From balajisi]
Trichet will sound as always that we are carefully watching developments specially inflation and nothing more

12:57

Sunil Mangwani - Yes, Andrews. Technically that is the level i am looking at subsequently after the speech. Strong resistance levels work both ways. They attract prices initially. If there is enough momentum, then price could slice through...or get rejected

12:57

12:58

[Video file]

ITC 2007: The attendees' experience Play

12:58

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International Traders Conference View

12:58

Sunil Mangwani - So, whether its going up or down.....we dont know. I would still wait for this down move to stabilise & find some support, before we can decide

12:59

[Comment From Nick]
EUR/USD would it be up after non-farm payroll news? it's expected to drop 60k if not more

12:59

FXstreet.com - Sunil is the author of Forexology blog at FXstreet.com. You can read his comments and subscribe to the blogâ��s feed.

12:59

FXstreet.com - Forexology, Sunil Mangwani's Blog

1:00	Sunil Mangwani - Yes, Nick, that should drive the Euro to the 1.60 level.....BUT we also have Trichet speaking. he has already indicated that this would not be a series of increase. So that could work against the euro.

1:01	Sunil Mangwani - As I said, Â a double whammy of contradicting data.

1:02	[Comment From Andrewunknown] Right - I don't trade event volatility in any case, but do pay close attention to pick up emergent trends after the fact. Thanks, by the way, for your willingness to cover this live!

1:02	[Comment From pulasthi] what kind of an impact would Non-Farm Payrolls have in USD/CHF taking in to consideration the drop in CHF CPI m/m

1:03	Sunil Mangwani - Pulasthi, the effect on the Chf would be directly related to the movement of the euro...rather than the CHF CPI. The Euro & Chf are absolute mirror images in movement & that should be looked at first

1:04	Sunil Mangwani - Right Andrew. The main trend should emerge after all this turmoil has subsided

1:05	[Comment From Sultan] sunil ,, why could the One time Increase in Rate Work Against Euro ?? why dont we Calculate that the One Time Rate Raise as a stability in Euro ?

1:05	[Comment From balajisi] sunil i asked u about ur take on euro/usd after the nfp

1:08

Sunil Mangwani - Sultan, a one time increase only is seen as a dovish reaction. As you said, it should be taken as a stable Euro. But with inflation climbing to 4% and the effcts of crude oil on one hand...and the cooling economy on the other...its a balancing act. But most currency traders/speculators see the difference in the interest rates of the (say)( the Feds & ECB. So, if there is no more further increase, its seen as bearish.

1:09	Sunil Mangwani - balajisi...very frankly, I dont have any take. With fundamentals ruling the day, I would rather wait for trends to emerge, thehn try & predict prices

1:11

[Comment From Andrewunknown]
Can you describe the current EUR/USD picture from your perspective with fibonacci studies? I know that's difficult without a chart to refer to, but was curious about what retracement levels you have plotted and any insight you have based off of those, aside perhaps from 1.59 putting up significant resistance....

1:12	Sunil Mangwani - as you rightly said Andrew , its difficult now, since the euro has been mixed on the daily charts.

1:13	Sunil Mangwani - I have a fib resistance up at 1.5950..the break of which would lead to the previous highs and the 1.6200 level.

1:15	Sunil Mangwani - On the downside, it is highly overbought. Only a break of the support levels of 1.5350 would mean a strong move further.

1:16	Sunil Mangwani - So far, no fib levels to the downside...since we dont have a top yet -:)

1:16	FXstreet.com - we continue receiving news from our main providers: Dollar Steady After ECB Rate Hike As US Jobs Data Loom (Dow Jones)

1:16	FXstreet.com - Non-Farm Payrolls data will be released at 12:30 GMT. Letâ��s welcome Valeria Bednarik who joined us in this special coverage to give her outlook for todayâ��s key US data. Valeria is Analyst at MolFX - Management and author of The Advisor Weblog at FXstreet.com. Welcome Valeria!

1:16	FXstreet.com - I would like to Thank you very much to Sunil for his wonderful ECB coverage!

1:16	FXstreet.com - Valeria is the author of The Advisor blog at FXstreet.com. You can read his comments and subscribe to the blogâ��s feed.

1:16	Valeria Bednarik - Hi everybody! it's an honour to be here, and share this live coverage with Mr. Sunil!

1:17	FXstreet.com - The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

1:18	FXstreet.com - Thanks Valeria, it's a grat pleasure to have here today... Well, give us your outlook for the markets, after ECB and ahead Non-Farm Payrolls

1:18	Valeria Bednarik - hope we see some action after the release of the Payrolls. right now, market is on Â hold. I believe that if we have a small desviation on payrolls from previous month, the unemployment rate will be the one that defines the action

1:18	Valeria Bednarik - remeber -49K was the previous reading in payrolls and 5.5% the unemployment rate. Also a revision of previous number could affect market reaction

1:19	Valeria Bednarik - deviation sorry...

1:20	FXstreet.com - NIck is sending us some links from the cnbc, I will gladly publish your comment

1:20	[Comment From Nick] Should consider this in the next few minutes http://www.cnbc.com/id/25508548 and http://www.cnbc.com/id/25507713

1:20	Valeria Bednarik - we have three numbers to review. Usually in Payrolls, we have a first spike huge if deviation worth it, including sometimes gaps... that break trough resistances or supports levels.

1:22

[Comment From Andrewunknown]
So, analyst consensus on NFP correlates to USD bearish, whereas a bump down in unemployment to 5.4% from 5.5% reads USD bullish, albeit not significantly. I know NFP has more visibility, but couldn't these essentially negate one another if neither deviates sharply from expectations?

1:22	Valeria Bednarik - majors made a "pullback " to those levels before continuing... so there we will find entry points there

1:23	Valeria Bednarik - Andrew, you are right that's why i told you there are three numbers to watch: Payroll unemployment rate and revision. Two of them positive will probably help greenback

1:24	Valeria Bednarik - but ADP although is quite unuseless to predict nonfarm payrolls, is useful to see the probable deviation in this case ADP was worse than expected by far, putting clouds in dollar destiny. Anyway the true, will know in 5 minutes.

1:26	FXstreet.com - I would lÃ±ike to remind you that LIVE now Wayne McDonell is broadcasting his webinar Trade Non-Farm Payrolls Live.

1:26	FXstreet.com - Daragh Maher, currency strategist at Calyon said: "The consensus is now probably closer to a fall of 80,000, which points to some downside vulnerability for the dollar and rate hike expectations."

1:26	[Comment From jp] Mr.Bednarik, what do you think USD future, after payroll?

1:28	Valeria Bednarik - Will depend on Payrolls numbers, but seems unlikely a reccover of dollar at least in the short term

1:29	[Comment From Robo-Pipo] I think Valeria makes a good point.

1:29	Valeria Bednarik - Thanks robo!

1:30	FXstreet.com - Valeria, data is -62k

1:30	FXstreet.com - Any comments????

1:30	Valeria Bednarik - the unemployment rate? that will define

1:30	FXstreet.com - JUN CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: -62K -60KE; CHANGE IN MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS: -33K -30KE

1:30	FXstreet.com - JUN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.5% 5.4%E

1:31	Valeria Bednarik - 5.5% no changes in unemployment rates

1:31	[Comment From marc leon] so the long awaited drop of the euro ( anounced for this summer) will stay out for now

1:31	Valeria Bednarik - don't seems dollar positive

1:31	FXstreet.com - I would like to remind you that LIVE now Wayne McDonell is broadcasting his webinar Trade Non-Farm Payrolls Live.

1:31	FXstreet.com - INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 404K 385KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.116M 3.125ME- Prior Initial Jobless Claims revised from 384K to 388K- Prior Continuing Claims revised from 3.139M to 3.135M

1:32	Valeria Bednarik - yet I can't see a reaction yet.. Â Euro under 1.5860 will fall above 1.5920 will raise.. let's see

1:32

[Comment From jim]
euro will not be able to sustain these high levels for long as its already hurting euro zone economy plus with the energy prices going up,just look what GBP did with its high levels, UK is in trouble especially the housing sector, there could be a global economic meltdown not far away, also do you trust all the data they give out? Are they true accurate data? Who knows ? Could be manipulation of the globalisation ....

1:32	Valeria Bednarik - I believe euro can noy resist too long this highs... from a macroeconomic point of view. How ever market sentiment could made some pushs today

1:33	FXstreet.com - From now we will be mixing Valeria's comments and answers to your questions with our news comming from our main providers.

1:33	Valeria Bednarik - Remember we have Trichet speech right now!

1:33	FXstreet.com - Watch Trichet's Speech live from the ECB website

1:33	FXstreet.com - US Nonfarm Payrolls decrease by 62K in Jun; Unemployment rate, unchanged at 5.5%

1:34	FXstreet.com - View oficial data here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

1:34	[Comment From marc leon] normally trichet = euro bearish

1:34	Valeria Bednarik - Trichet will made euro jump

1:35	FXstreet.com - Jobless Claims news: US Initial Jobless Claims increase by 16K to 404K in Jun 28 week

1:35	FXstreet.com - Jobless Claims Oficial data: http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

1:35	Valeria Bednarik - there we go! Euro has at 1.5835 an ascendant trend line! a break of it wuill trigger it more bearish

1:35	Valeria Bednarik - the same goes fot GBP under 1.9830

1:36	FXstreet.com - You can start sending your questions to Valeria

1:36	FXstreet.com - Valeria is the author of The Advisor blog at FXstreet.com. You can read his comments and subscribe to the blogâ��s feed.

1:36	FXstreet.com - The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

1:37	[Comment From marc leon] 15750 zone is possible ??

1:37	Valeria Bednarik - today? Â confirming under 1.5810 seems likely

1:37	[Comment From pulasthi] so will the euro go down from now

1:38	[Comment From Guest] I would look to go long here eurusd now with tight sl around 90

1:38	[Comment From ROY] WHERE WILL THE USD/EURO BE FOR THE END OF YEAR 2008 ?

1:38	Valeria Bednarik - is early yo say Pulasthi! we need to wait at least 30 minutes

1:38	Valeria Bednarik - Euro long not a good idea here, aarounf 1.5790 maybe

1:38	Valeria Bednarik - around sorry!

1:40	Valeria Bednarik - Roy if i'm certain about that...I will be Trillonaire, haha. Â but although the dominant trend is bullish it has reached key maximums... a correction is expected but needs to break strong zones to the down side to confirm a trend change

1:41	[Comment From FeÂ´lix] If the Euro rises or falls, it will be the beggining of a new trend move? Or just a move for today, and tomorrow we will see?

1:42	[Comment From marc leon] for fibo fnanatics now sitting on 78.6% of last upleg

1:42	Valeria Bednarik - I Â guess is just today... as i told you we are far from key levels.. see the rebound in 1.5790

1:42	Valeria Bednarik - thanks marc

1:42	[Comment From Huey] How do u c jpy crosses?

1:43	Valeria Bednarik - JPY resist all week the fall.. i believe above 106.80 we will see a rise in the pair a fall in JPY agaisnt dollar. Japan goverment don't like a strong yen Â

1:43	[Comment From balajisi] guys euro will touch 15640 by 2mrw

1:44	Valeria Bednarik - sorry what do you mean with 2mrw?

1:44	FXstreet.com - I think he means tomorrow, Valeria

1:45	[Comment From Nick] tommorow the market close 4th of july

1:45	Valeria Bednarik - tomorrow is holiday in the US... and we have to wait for today's close to confirm that i will post some comments about that in my blog as soon as i see market definitions

1:45	[Comment From marc leon] but first it will have to get thorugh this zone of congestion 1.58 15792 15784 15775 etc

1:46	FXstreet.com - Some of you have started to ask about trichet's speech. Sunil is watching it now and he is preparing a briefing for you.

1:46	FXstreet.com - Watch Trichet's Speech live from the ECB website

1:47	Valeria Bednarik - one more 15 minutes candle will define yet strange! fundamentals are dollar negative, yet dollar recovers! Let's see what Trichet has to say and if we have more clear definitions from here yet majors reached key levels. a break trough umm more dollar gains

1:47	FXstreet.com - marc leon is informing us ECB site is busy...

1:48	FXstreet.com - I can offer you some selected comments of what trichet is saying now:

1:49	FXstreet.com - Last statement was: Bank Credit Availability Not Significantly Affected

1:49	Valeria Bednarik - As i said at the beginning, i believe the 0.25 rate was already priced in...

1:50	Valeria Bednarik - Euro shoud retest 1,5790 right now.. if breaks could fall nice

1:50	[Comment From balajisi] it is very clear guys that ecb rate hike was priced in and if the nfp was very bad than expected then dollar would hv fallen further

1:51	[Comment From jp] japan's govt likes strong dollar, but same time it increases the price of imported stuff including oil.

1:51	[Comment From Auckland JJ] Watch speech live on Bloomberg UK site.

1:51	FXstreet.com - Many thanks Auckland

1:51	[Comment From Navidos] what about raising dollar????????????????????

1:51	Valeria Bednarik - GBP breakind also Euro.. JUSD/PY should recover to around 107.10

1:52	Valeria Bednarik - Sorry Navidos donÂ´t understand what you mean

1:53	[Comment From Nick] GBP/USD when will it recover?

1:53	Valeria Bednarik - After this fall? ok if breaks under 1,5700 the pair will probably define a bearish trend. in the short term Â

1:53	Valeria Bednarik - GBP seems a bit delayed: needs to confirm but looks bearish from here althougt under 1.9800 will gain momentum

1:53	FXstreet.com - Trichet is saying right now: Doesn't Precommit On Future Interest Rate Moves

1:54	[Comment From jim] what level do you think Valeria could Euro drop now ?

1:54	Valeria Bednarik - Euro is breaking to the downside an ascendant channel.. we could see an upside correction yet next supports and targets are 1.5720 and then 1.5675

1:55	FXstreet.com - Trichet is saying now that ECB does what is needed to deliver price stability

1:55	[Comment From Mike] GBP/USD will go to 19500 in some sesions from now as its in a range

1:56	[Comment From Navidos] When do u think that this trend will ascent again??

1:57	Valeria Bednarik - we probably see a correction from here... dependen on the levels reached and the daily close, we could talk about a change in trend always talking about short term. in euro watch 1.5790 level in GBP 1.9860

1:57	FXstreet.com - I would like to remind you that LIVE now Wayne McDonell is broadcasting his webinar Trade Non-Farm Payrolls Live.

1:58	[Comment From jp] Lot of bad news for dollar such as payrolls, still why is it stregthening, Mr.Bednarik?

1:59	Valeria Bednarik - Because right now, we are in the midle of the storm. Market should digest new before definen a certain trend however Rate hikes was already discounted and i believe market was expecting a worse reading in Nonfarm

1:59	[Comment From Nick] Yea I too not quiet understand..there are so much bad news for us dollar and the outcome the opposite?..

1:59	Valeria Bednarik - Also in euro zone and England we have lots of bad news these days.. don't forget that

2:00	Valeria Bednarik - All the south of Eurozone is suffering this high euro.. oil continues rising and that's bad for all the world not just dollar.

2:01	FXstreet.com - Sunil Mangwani has been paying special attemption to Trichet's speech during last 30 minutes. He is ready to give his outlook after the speech.

2:02	FXstreet.com - Forexology, Sunil Mangwani's Blog

2:03	Sunil Mangwani - In context to what is going on right now in the currency markets...related to the ECB interest rate hike, the NFP data, and the ongoing speech by the ECB head -

2:03	[Comment From fatih] Trichet said something bad for euro?

2:04	Sunil Mangwani - It seems that it is the euro which is the main driver of price, rather than the Dollar

2:05	Sunil Mangwani - No faith, there was nothing negative about the speech. But the very fact that there could be no more rate hikes, is getting Euro negative

2:06	Sunil Mangwani - This rate hike was also a hard choice, looking at the state of the economy.

2:07	[Comment From Chay] The EUR/USD has been driving the sell off in cable. Trichet removed the comments to "heightened alert" which indicates that interest rates will probably fall from here. Also the market was anticipating -100k NFP

2:07	[Comment From Theo] Is Trichet statement dovish or hawkish?

2:09

Sunil Mangwani - Chay, it could not necessarily mean a fall in interest rates. But keeping rates stabilised for some time would also mean Euro negative. Anfd yes, the NFP data, though not good, was not as bad as the market expected. This seems to have taken its tollon the Euro, which technically has been overbought.

2:10	Sunil Mangwani - The technical levels mentioned by Valeria would now be the key to further moves.

2:11	Sunil Mangwani - Theo, the comment is certainly not hawkish. In fact, he is stating the same facts , that he mentioned last month.

2:11	Valeria Bednarik - Thanks Sunil! an honor to share this with you!

2:12	Sunil Mangwani - Hence the market interpretation...of not receiveing anything new...would mean dovish -:)

2:12	[Comment From Chay] Thanks for reitterating my post Sunil - let me know if you need another ghost writer!!

2:12	[Comment From Chay] Oil is also easing, NFP's weren't as bad as rumour suggested this morning. This is giving a boost to the dollar, so the dollar has a lot to do with it.

2:12	[Comment From Chay] Trichet's statement isn't hawkish, it usually is (much to the annoyance of every other central bank!) That's what's moving the market.

2:12	[Comment From Chay] As I said, his speech is not dovish or hawkish (which has been proping the market up for some time). It is just not hawkish.

2:13	Sunil Mangwani - You are welcome Chay. You did say the same thing when I was writing. -:) Will let you know if I need a ghost writer -:)))

2:13	[Comment From Theo] Valeria, what support level do we see this descending movement

2:15	Valeria Bednarik - Teo, in wich pair? Eur 1.5720 GBP 1.9800 Swiss 1,0265 JPY seems bullish to the zone around 107.10

2:16	FXstreet.com - News arriving for Trichet's Speech: Trichet justifies rate hike to prevent second round effects to price stability

2:16	[Comment From jim] Valeria do you think euro will rebound ? or will it go lower into the 1.56 zone today?

2:16	[Comment From Navidos] sorry Valeria What about increase level in ERU/USD to further moves? I think that It will be raise!

2:16	Valeria Bednarik - Jim we are surely going to see a rebound aprobably around 1.5720... market never goes straight forever!

2:18	Valeria Bednarik - Navidos, only above 1.5790 we could see rises in euro and is far right now... we have to wait a bit more to confirm the daily close. right now, euro is compliting a pullback to a daily descendant trend line coming from historical maximum

2:18	Valeria Bednarik - if the pair manages to end the day under 1.5730 i see further fall

2:20	FXstreet.com - Well, it' time for the conclussions. We have been here together during 2 hours watching LIVE 2 of the most important events in EUROPE and US.

2:21	FXstreet.com - More Breaking news: Dollar Jumps After ECB's Trichet Less Hawkish Than Expected

2:21	FXstreet.com - Now is the time our speakers, Sunil Mangwani and Valeria Bednarik will offer theyre conclussions.

2:24	FXstreet.com - Questions time is close now. If your questions and comments were'nt posted or answered, you can go Â to Valeria's and Sunil's blogs and ask them directly.

2:24	FXstreet.com - Sunil is the author of Forexology blog at FXstreet.com. You can read his comments and subscribe to the blogâ��s feed.

2:24	FXstreet.com - Forexology, Sunil Mangwani's Blog

2:24	FXstreet.com - Valeria is the author of The Advisor blog at FXstreet.com. You can read his comments and subscribe to the blogâ��s feed.

2:24	FXstreet.com - The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

2:26	FXstreet.com - If you enjoyed today's Live Coverage and you would like to meet Mr. Sunil Mangwani, you will have the opportunity next October at the ITC in Barcelona.

2:26

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2:26	FXstreet.com - As I told you before, Sunil will be in Barcelona next October participating in the ITCâ��08. If you are planning to go but you are not sure yet, you can watch some videos we recorded last year.

2:26

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ITC 2007: The attendees' experience Play

2:26

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ITC 2007: The editor's cut Play

2:26	FXstreet.com - Sunil, will offer NOW his final words:

2:27

Sunil Mangwani - The ECB raised the interest rates by 25 basis points, which was widely expected and factored in by the market. Hence the initial reaction to the currencies was quite muted. It was the NFP data & the speech by Trichet Â which finally saw some large movements. As discussed, the Euro did not rally since the ECB comments were interpreted as "not hawkish", and this could set the stage for some pullbacks in the Eur/Usd. Technically some support levels at 1.5700 could still hold, but for a short time,we could see some retracements on this pair.

2:28	Sunil Mangwani - It was a pleasure covering this event along with Valeria, and I thank everyone for their active participation. If you have any questions, you can always visit my blog and post it there. Thank you very much.

2:28	FXstreet.com - Forexology, Sunil Mangwani's Blog

2:29	FXstreet.com - Â Thank you very much for this Sunil. It has been a pleasure to have here today with us.

2:29	FXstreet.com - Valeria, your turn!!

2:29

Valeria Bednarik -

As Sunil said, the less hawkish comments and the expectations os a far worse Payroll turned market dollar positive: the fact of buying the rumor selling the news expresed at the beginning of this live coverage, was pretty clear today: market priced in the 4.25 but not the tone of Trichet speech. although the day is far from over, the close of today's candles will pretty much help us to define dollar future: we have DJIA opening in a few seconds, and some more data in the US the ISM non manufac. A bad reading there could trigger a correction from here. yet not much more turns

2:30	Valeria Bednarik - I had been great to be here with Sunil and all of you! hope to see you soon again in my blog or at the live webinars here at Fsxtreet

2:30	Valeria Bednarik - Thanks all again! bye for now

2:30	FXstreet.com - The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

2:30	[Comment From emmanuel] I would really say thanks to all who participated in this live blog cast

2:31	FXstreet.com - Thanks to all of you for your participation today... More than 1600 users have been watching this live coverage today. It has been a huge plesure to enjoy this time with you. I'll see you in the blogs and Forums.

2:33	FXstreet.com - If you want to keep on enjoying live coverage of the non-farm payrolls, just go to Wayne's live Webinar. He will keep on his webinar one hour more.

2:34	FXstreet.com - One more time, I would like to remind you Sunil Mangwani will be in the ITC in October. It will be held in Barcelona. You can subscribe now and save 200 eur.

2:34

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2:35	FXstreet.com - I'll let you watching the Attendee's experience video we recorded last year. Don't miss the conference this year!!

2:35

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ITC 2007: The attendees' experience Play

2:36	[Comment From Theo] This is interesting participation. I wish I could enter into your trading room and learn forex live with all technical and fundamental analysis