FXstreet.com Live Sessions Archives: BoE and ECB live coverage with Valeria Bednarik

Check the BoE and ECB live coverage with Valeria Bednarik we made on November 6th.

BoE and ECB live coverage with Valeria Bednarik

(11/06/2008)
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11:35

FXstreet.com: Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's BoE and ECB Interest Rates Decisions Live Coverage will start in 15 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Valeria Bednarik who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. She will be giving us a direct picture fo the market status.

11:35

FXstreet.com: Valeria Bednarik has been an active Forex trader for the last 3 years, specializing in the International Foreign Exchange Market. She also graduates in the Universidad Catolica del Salvador, in Argentina, as a Public Account, specializing in financials and cost managements. She currently manages an important clients portfolio for IFX Markets, Boston and is senior trader manager at Molfx-Management; besides she works training new traders with Trader College LLC specializing in technical analysis, for the English speaking community.

11:36

FXstreet.com: Today's live coverage is sponsored by CMS

11:36

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11:36

FXstreet.com: Now i would like to ask your opinion on the BoE rate decision.
Let's Vote!

11:37

Will the BoE cut the bench mark interest rate?
Yes, the BoE will cut it by 50bps.

( 50% )

Yes the BoE will cut it by 75bps

( 25% )

Yes, on an aggressive cut it by 100bps.

( 20% )

No, the BoE will rather hold the ongoing rate.

( 5% )

No, the BoE will ratehr rise it by 25bps.

( 0% )

11:37

FXstreet.com: Welcome to Today's live coverage! Mrs Valeria.

11:38

Valeria Bednarik: Hi everybody, and welcome.A pleasure to be here today!

11:39

Valeria Bednarik:

Market is already aware both Central banks are cutting at least a 0.50 baisis points each. Could we have an extra surprise? I expected it more coming from BOE than from ECB

11:40

Valeria Bednarik:

However, I believe today, Mr. Trichet words after the rates, will produce more effect on market, that the ones we have been seeing lately. He spend many months talking about growth,

11:40

[Comment From Cananas]
Hi Val, long time......hola desde Colombia!!!

11:40

Valeria Bednarik: sorry, about infation and focusing on it, ignoring the growth problems, that a rate cut is almost a capitulation

11:41

Valeria Bednarik: of his previous ideas ans speeches. Anyway, I don't expect a surprise there

11:42

[Comment From Cananas]
totally agree, that depends on the rate cut, if 0.50 will be better to wait for trichet

11:42

[Comment From Guest]
Hi Valeria, if BoE do suprise us, do you expect a 100 or 75 point cut?

11:43

Valeria Bednarik: So if Europe rcuts is larger or smaller, well we will have reactions in Euro no doubts, but if just 0.50 better wait for Trichet tes Cananas that's right !

11:44

Valeria Bednarik: My husband is convinced i'm a witch.. but i never dare to forecast a rate cut, or market reactions after it! Better for England maybe a 1%, but I only expect the new to be realize, to move on

11:44

[Comment From Nick]
sorry, that last question was from me, forgot to put in a name

11:45

[Comment From Guest]
hi valeria where is euro heading towards if ECB cuts .50basispoints

11:45

Valeria Bednarik: no problem Nick!

11:47

Valeria Bednarik: I think euro is bearish at the time, or better, dollar bullish in the medium term, despite the sideways of these week. Most of what will happen will deppend on Trichet. I rather wait and see first reaction to the new, and if any important support or resistance is broken

11:48

Valeria Bednarik:

These news, are always a surprise box.. Has the market already priced the new? hasn't? We can thing or speculate about one of both. The true will be a fact after the publication

11:48

Valeria Bednarik: think! sorry we can Think

11:49

[Comment From Cananas]
are you trading the news on short term or have any s&r to hold for a break??

11:50

Valeria Bednarik:

I don' t trade news as the general concept of it. i trade short term, and mostly technically, waiting for market reaction to key support or resistance levels

11:50

FXstreet.com:

Valeria Bednarik has a blog at FXStreet.com. Her Advisor Weblog http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/ gives you great analysis for the FX market.

11:51

Valeria Bednarik: Brak troughs or rebounds! Give the new 15 minutes.... I always say so.. market is plenty of opportunities! this is not the only chance, and never ever, the chance of a lifetime to become rich!

11:53

Valeria Bednarik: It's good to catch a good number of pips in a huge movement. But entering the market before.. it's just betting

11:54

FXstreet.com: 5 minutes to go

11:54

[Comment From Cananas]
right, its better for see reaction of the price and then get involved with it

11:55

Valeria Bednarik: So, in a few minutes, we will have the first one, BOE rates decision. Unless an unexpected movement, a different number, i don't expect a big reaction.

11:55

[Comment From mrcable]
hi valeria. good luck to everyone

11:55

Valeria Bednarik:

Tks Cananas.

11:55

[Comment From Mr.Cad]
in a volatile market....is it good to bet on a retracement or to go with the flow?

11:56

Valeria Bednarik:

In a volatile market, with low volume like we are having these last days, I rather prefer to go with the flow or the trend, but reducing a bit my leverage.

11:56

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11:57

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11:57

[Comment From mrcable]
75bps have been priced in traders say

11:58

FXstreet.com: 1 minutes to go

11:58

Valeria Bednarik:

Ok, let's see for how much and where Gbp goes!

11:59

[Comment From Mr.Cad]
The poll on the FXstreet site shows majority think it is a 50bps cut Mr. Cable

11:59

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11:59

Valeria Bednarik: We are not so much today

12:00

Valeria Bednarik:

and that's a pool of the ones just here

12:00

FXstreet.com: 150

12:00

FXstreet.com: 150bps!

12:00

Valeria Bednarik: 3 % 1.5 basis points

12:00

[Comment From Nick]
wow

12:00

[Comment From kalipatullah]
alow

12:01

Valeria Bednarik: Gbp is falling quickly

12:01

Valeria Bednarik: This is a declaration of the hard situation England economy is going trough

12:02

FXstreet.com: The BoE has decided to cut the bench mark interest by 150 bps to 3.00%.

12:02

Valeria Bednarik: Gbp should fall, let's give it a minute but under 1.5760/80 we could see the pair continue quickly to the downside

12:03

Valeria Bednarik: non stop for the GBP fall today.. from here if breaks

12:03

Valeria Bednarik: breaksand goes.. next target for it is the zone around 1.5650

12:04

Valeria Bednarik: the rest of the majors are supporting it and falling hardly too

12:04

[Comment From Mr.Cad]
does it signal a quick fix or a panic?

12:05

Valeria Bednarik: sorry whats a quick fix?

12:05

Valeria Bednarik: no panic form me... back to the test the zone 5780/60.

12:06

FXstreet.com: News from our main sources:

Verbatim: Bank of England Statement On Bank Rate

12:06

Valeria Bednarik:

euro already breaks under 1.2830., give a few minutes but if confirms under here.. we will see more falls there

12:08

[Comment From CVJ]
Hi Val!...Indeed..key levels of daily support there @ 1.5570ish, so the break shall really have the downside momntum behind it...surely watch for the "falling knife" on this one... :-)

12:08

Valeria Bednarik: right now, majors look uncertain about where thet will go, but, mainly is a Euro and Gbp bearish

12:09

Valeria Bednarik: Hi CVJ!!! a pleasure to have you here! If you have any comment, feel free to send it!

12:10

[Comment From CVJ]
My pleasure to be here with you!

12:10

Valeria Bednarik: Gbp return to the begining point, and could pass it up. proably fall from here

12:10

[Comment From Mohammad]
GBP is going up does it go down again

12:11

Valeria Bednarik: next 5 minutes should begin to fall

12:11

Valeria Bednarik: again

12:12

[Comment From Mohammad]
If GBP break 1.5900 it stay bearish

12:12

[Comment From Guest]
wow

12:13

Valeria Bednarik: Only above 1.6100 I could say GBP will lost some bearish momentum. REmember the pair iis moving 500 600 pips a day.. supports and resistances should be wide longer for breaks

12:14

[Comment From Guest]
why is usd/jpy affected by BOE?

12:15

FXstreet.com: Here you have our Currency profile for the USD/JPY: http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/currencies-glance/pair.aspx?id=USD/JPY

12:15

[Comment From jp]
hello, there. what effect will it bring on USD/JPY pair??

12:15

Valeria Bednarik:

All market is usually affected with a new like this. favoring dollar with a first spike, dollar gets benefits against most rivals. Anyway, GBP is jumping a lot 10 20 pips movements in seconds, so I rather prefer to wait and see

12:16

[Comment From TRADER]
HI

12:16

[Comment From CVJ]
Val is correct here ...as we "hover" in this little pip range...we are building energy that will need to be expelled...and we have the underying weakness of the currency, and the downtrend in our favor....

12:16

Valeria Bednarik: Exactly.

12:16

[Comment From bear]
how do u c usdjpy? shud break lower?

12:17

Valeria Bednarik: In the very short term, GBP has a descendant trend line around 1.5915. That should hold. Under 1.5850 around that zone, again to the downside.

12:18

[Comment From Prd]
Going back is just counter reaction - should remain bearish

12:19

Valeria Bednarik: yes, and let's remember, we have ECB in a few minutes, and NonFarm Payrolls tomorrow. The U.S. is not in the best shape also.

12:20

Valeria Bednarik: This is the battle of the less weak, meaning there is no strongest winner here.

12:21

[Comment From ahnasr]
cable-yen cross plz

12:21

Valeria Bednarik: maybe Jpy, but that's a different story. Ready to beak to the upside here GBP.

12:21

[Comment From Poohbear]
did they have the report for the Oct inflation when making the decision?

12:22

Valeria Bednarik: I didn't see. let's ask the fxstreet administrator if he can find it?

12:23

[Comment From Neil]
I'm seeing the 23.6% @ around 1.5895 as the stumbling point for the return upwards ?

12:23

Valeria Bednarik: This zone 1.5910/20 is the one i was talking about a few minutes ago that should hold in the hold term. Any way, let's have in maind such a cut, will hit Gbp sooner or later, no doubts in the medium term

12:25

Valeria Bednarik: breaked to the upside.. see to believe! wait to enter. It's adressing to 1.6000 and probably reach it before I end writing this line

12:25

FXstreet.com: Nov 12 the BoE will release an Inflation report

12:25

[Comment From gest]
hi

12:25

[Comment From Guest]
hi

12:25

[Comment From guest]
Hi Valeria,what do you think about EURUSD and EURGBP? Frist bearish 2nd bullish?

12:26

Valeria Bednarik: We have ECB decision in 5 minutes, in the case or EurUsd I see it bearish yes.

12:27

Valeria Bednarik: Euro Gbp. well is falling appart with this GBP reaction above 1.6000

12:27

Valeria Bednarik: No bullish there now

12:28

Valeria Bednarik: and in the midle of this ECB decision in 2 minutes?

12:28

FXstreet.com: in 25 minutes ECB will announce

12:29

Valeria Bednarik: ups sorry, my mistake.

12:29

[Comment From Mike65]
I am no expert, but I believe this rate cut is bullish for the GBP as the investor’s confidence is the most market mover now!

12:29

Valeria Bednarik: You have quite a point there Mike.

12:30

Valeria Bednarik: And i meann logical and interesting. England already recon they are in recession, and no doubts sentiment is driving markets.

12:32

FXstreet.com: Valeria has got an internet connection problem. She will be back in few minutes. Please be patient

12:32

Valeria Bednarik: Sorry! back here...

12:33

Valeria Bednarik: It could be understood as "goverment is finally doing something to solve the crisis"

12:33

Valeria Bednarik: But is easy to say It fell because of the rate cut, it rise because of the return in confidence.

12:33

FXstreet.com: Please take a look at the EUR/GBP chart. the pair falls very fast after hitting dynamic resistance at 0.8160

12:34

FXstreet.com: The ECB will announce in 10 minutes

12:34

Valeria Bednarik: Better trade technical levels (at least for me) above this under that... and that's it.

12:35

[Comment From fuad]
what do you expect for ECB rate cut

12:35

Valeria Bednarik: As say earlier, if the cut is of 0.50, reactions could came latter with Trichet speach.

12:36

[Comment From samkibs]
at what time is the decision in ?

12:36

FXstreet.com: 12:45 GMT

12:37

Valeria Bednarik: I don't expect anything different from ECB, better in BOE as said earlier, never imagine a 1.5 cut. No time to imagine. Better spend it analyzing

12:37

[Comment From CVJ]
Absolutely, Val!...as technicals really are behaving well...despite the heavy activity of data... :-)

12:37

[Comment From jake]
i bet 1

12:38

[Comment From DRSS]
Val I think the market moved against the expectations of the traders? how do you view it

12:39

FXstreet.com: Today's live coverage is sponsored by CMS.

12:39

Valeria Bednarik: thanks! Anyway, both pairs, DRSS remain bearish in the longer term. The market movements were very fast, but also majors respect technical levels. The reaction of more than 300 pips in GBP

12:40

[Comment From zeb]
i must say dont be emotional cable is overbought so short oppurtunity

12:40

[Comment From ol]
ok

12:40

FXstreet.com: View How GBP/USD is moving in Reat-time: http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/forex-charts/?id=GBPUSD

12:40

Valeria Bednarik: ok zeb and in fact CHF is advancing,

12:41

Valeria Bednarik: let's see if the rest follows.

12:41

[Comment From ADAMU]
IF THERE IS A CUT IN BY THEECB, WAHT IS LIKELY GOING TO BE THE DIRECTION OF EUR/USD

12:41

[Comment From Guest]
hi

12:42

FXstreet.com: 3 minutes to go...

12:42

Valeria Bednarik: Mainly bearish the pair. Under the minimum reached a few minutes ago, we could see some interesting continuation to the downside

12:43

FXstreet.com: 1 minute to go...

12:43

12:44

[Comment From samkibs]
Hi VAL, what ae the support and resistance levels for the EUR/USD ?

12:45

[Comment From jake]
stock market is not reacting yet...

12:45

Valeria Bednarik: Ok are we going to see the same movements in a few seconds? a large fall, a rebound, and ffall again? Euro? 1.2825/30 1.2780 and from there strong fall 1.2735. Resistances 1.2880 1,2930

12:45

Valeria Bednarik: cut!

12:45

FXstreet.com: 50bps!

12:45

FXstreet.com: to 3.75%

12:46

Valeria Bednarik: as expected, first spike negative for Euro, but tending lower

12:46

FXstreet.com: The ECB has cut the bench mark rate by 50bps to 3.75%.

12:46

[Comment From jake]
too mild, bearish eurusd

12:47

Valeria Bednarik: For first time in how long?

12:47

Valeria Bednarik: 1.2780

12:47

FXstreet.com: sorry to 3.25%

12:47

[Comment From samkibs]
Wait for Trichet speech

12:47

[Comment From Neil]
This is my first live session. I have to say many thanks for the informative insight.

12:48

Valeria Bednarik: The support hold in the first attempt let's see next. Tks Neil

12:49

Valeria Bednarik: And Smakibs youre right we have already talk about Mr. Trichet. and waiting for his wise worlds!

12:49

[Comment From ADAMU]
HOW MANU MINUTE DO THE SPEECH COMES OUT AFTER THE RELEASE

12:49

FXstreet.com: Trichet speech is scheduled at 13:30 GMT

12:50

[Comment From Neil]
I'm targetting 1.2755 area - Is this too optomistic ??

12:50

Valeria Bednarik: Another attempt to the downside from Euro, not at all if braks under the minimum

12:51

[Comment From mrcable]
neil, break 2790 you get your trgt

12:51

[Comment From Neil]
Thanks

12:51

[Comment From Neil]
Thnks Mrcable

12:52

Valeria Bednarik: breaks under 1.2780 i mean sorry for my speling

12:53

Valeria Bednarik: Gbp/Usd back to the broken ressitance (now support(@ 1.5920 Also the 38.6% of the upleg in 15 minutes-

12:54

Valeria Bednarik: Watch that level, under it, the pair could regain bearish strenght although for now it's just rebounding there

12:54

[Comment From Neil]
Thanks Valeria

12:55

Valeria Bednarik: Yo're welcome

12:56

[Comment From samkibs]
Is the EUR/USD screaming BUY ! BUY ! BUY ! BUY ! BUY ! BUY !

12:56

Valeria Bednarik: umm not for me really!

12:56

Valeria Bednarik: Of course I can be wrong!

12:57

[Comment From Neil]
euro testing 1.2780 - !!

12:57

Valeria Bednarik: Breaking the support level, not really yet but so anxious to..

12:57

Valeria Bednarik: Yes Neil, close to your targett zone..

12:58

[Comment From Guest]
sell now up to 1.2700

12:59

Valeria Bednarik: Sorry ! fall again! probably continue to 1.2735

12:59

FXstreet.com:

Valeria Bednarik has a blog at FXStreet.com. Her Advisor Weblog http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/ gives you great analysis for the FX market.

12:59

Valeria Bednarik: Then 1.2680

12:59

[Comment From tarmo]
Hi, pls you opinion on correlation EURJPY and GBPJPY

1:02	Valeria Bednarik: Correlation between them? well in days like today, with Gbp strenghtening and Euro fallinf, we have no correlation. but as both majors Euro and Gbp are in a down trend, and Jpy strenghtening, well usually move the same direction I mean is that what you asked?

1:03	Valeria Bednarik: Both bearish at the time

1:03	Valeria Bednarik: Usd/Jpy in a key support also..97.50 interesting level. Under it we could see the pair contiing to the downside

1:04	[Comment From Dirk] Hi Valeria...great place to be in the FXMARKETS here at fxstreet.....thankx for your service

1:04	Valeria Bednarik: Gbp back to where we started!

1:04	[Comment From Dirk] Hi Tarmo...watch USDJPY and EURUSD in combination and you will get the big picture of EURJPY

1:04	Valeria Bednarik: tks! Dirk

1:04	[Comment From Neil] I'm short on the eur/jpy tragetting 123.50 area

1:05	[Comment From jake] wow,exciting

1:05	Valeria Bednarik: Great Neil! FxStreet expert has the same target zone, (not me I mean, I'm just an ivited guest)

1:06	Valeria Bednarik: CHF is the detonator: above 1.1745/50 will move the rest of the pair with it

1:07	Valeria Bednarik: targetting the key zone around 1.1800

1:07	[Comment From B] any comments on aussie dollar direction ?

1:08	Valeria Bednarik: aussie is following GOLD.

1:08	[Comment From Dirk] Hi Neill...looking at the indicators like MACD, RSI...you better watch out..EURJPY is likely to bounce back into the 127ies area..where is your stop?

1:09	Valeria Bednarik: but tending bearish for me in the medium term

1:10	[Comment From Neil] Dirk, Thanks, It was tight and I was stopped at 124.68 - I'm happy with that !

1:12	FXstreet.com: Regret to say It's time to sum up today's live coverage. The BoE have decided to cut the bench mark interest rate by 150 bps to 3.00 %, while the ECB has cut by 50 bps to 3.25% as expected.

1:12	FXstreet.com: We keep a close eye open to any economic news coming.

1:12	FXstreet.com: We would like to thank to Valeria Bednarik for her participation today. It has been a great pleasure to have you today with us!

1:13	[Comment From Neil] Thanks very much for this great live coverage. Many thanks to all those who helped me make pips !!

1:13	Valeria Bednarik: The peasure is all mine, always enjoy being here

1:13	[Comment From Dirk] Thanx for the service beeing brought to us all over the world...cheers from Germany!Thanx to Valeria!

1:13	Valeria Bednarik: Hope you enjoy it too! Remember we have Trichet speech in a few minutes, and that could definitly hit Euro

1:13	[Comment From Nick] Thanks Valeria, great coverage. Looking forward to seeing how it pans out!

1:14	[Comment From Bill] Thanks to FX street for the converage.

1:14	Valeria Bednarik: See you all soon! bye for now

1:14	[Comment From B] Thanks for the advice! :)

1:14

1:15	FXstreet.com: Please follow up with Valeria's blog at http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/

1:15	[Comment From Bill] Bye... Hope to see you at the next major announcement.

1:16	FXstreet.com: We keep a close eye open to any economic news coming. Okay everyone! Thank you for joining the live coverage today. I hope to see you again in the next coverage! Bye for now! Good trading day!

1:17