Non-Farm Payrolls Live Coverage with Tim Salem (CVJ)
Take a look to the Non-Farm Payrolls Live Coverage with Tim Salem (CVJ) we made on Nov 7.
| Non-Farm Payrolls Live Coverage with Tim Salem (CVJ) | (11/07/2008) Powered by: CoveritLive |
1:00 |
FXstreet.com: Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's Non-Farm Payrolls Live Coverage will start in 15 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Tim Salem (CVJ) who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. He will be giving us a direct picture fo the market status. |
1:00 |
FXstreet.com: Tim Salem ( CVJ ) is the Owner/CEO of UltraMax Group, LLC; and a private retail Trader for himself and others. He is currently embarking on the Commodity Trading Advisor track (CTA). A former educator for ten years, he moved his work in the Equities markets of the late 1990's into Foreign Exchange, and was grateful for the need to "re-learn" literally everything. |
1:01 |
FXstreet.com: He is the author of The Forex tradiung Today at FXstreet.com. You can read his wonderful comments at http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/ Hi Tim ( CVJ?), great to see you here in the Live coverage. I really appraciate your participation. |
1:01 |
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1:02 |
FXstreet.com: CMS General Research page |
1:02 |
FXstreet.com: Daily video about the main market news |
1:02 |
FXstreet.com: Expert Analysis of Today's Market |
1:02 |
FXstreet.com: Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead |
1:03 |
FXstreet.com: Hi Tim, great to see you here in the live coverage! |
| 1:04 | Take the chance now to sharpen your predictions about Non-farm data... Between -50 and -75K ( 0% ) ( 0% ) ( 4% ) ( 31% ) ( 65% ) ( 0% ) |
1:04 |
[Comment From DRSivaraman] Hi CVJ all the best for your mainden live chat coverage of NFP |
1:06 |
[Comment From Neil] Hi Tim and welcome |
1:07 |
FXstreet.com: Sorry for the inconvenience Tim has a problem with logging in,,, He will be here shortly. |
1:09 |
Tim Salem: Greeting All, and welcome! I apologize for the slight delay... |
1:09 |
[Comment From krishna babu] hi tim for you live coverage of nfp |
1:09 |
[Comment From Neil] Hi Tim |
1:09 |
[Comment From Nick] greetings Tim! |
1:09 |
Tim Salem: Welcome, and I look forward to a rather "historic" NFP today! It will surely be intersting.... |
1:12 |
Tim Salem: I would not be surprised that we will see 200K + at least...If anyone has been to tthe grocery store in the last year....we have been in a Recession in the US...and our Unemployment does not look too positive in the coming months... |
1:13 |
Tim Salem: We had a 159K loss last month... and if we do see the coveted 200+ area...we may begin to see talk of another .50 bps cut from the Fed soon.... |
1:14 |
Tim Salem: I woud ventue, khalid, that Fiber may be down to 1.20 ish...but of course...this is not due to a strong Euro either...but a supremely weak Dollar |
1:14 |
[Comment From khalid] what do you think the eur/usd will be after 30 days ???? |
1:15 |
Tim Salem: We are seeing Dollar strength of late due to risk aversion inflows...so we have flight into low-yielding currencies of the Dollar and the Yen... |
1:16 |
Tim Salem: Of course...as I mention in my Blog, and feel every month...anything really is possible in terms of the actual Numbers released.... |
1:16 |
FXstreet.com: You can keep yourself updated with Tim's blog at http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/ |
1:17 |
Tim Salem: Dollar yen should impulsively fall with a negative release..but due to institutional sentiment preparing to repatriate... |
1:18 |
[Comment From Guest] in simple words usd/jpy up ? |
1:18 |
Tim Salem: Remember....you have the Dollar and the Yen as the "safe have" currencies now...so they will really "push and pull" each other.... |
1:20 |
[Comment From Rajeev] What trend will Euro now follow? |
1:22 |
Tim Salem: Rajeev..Crude and the Euro often have a strong inverse correlation...so if the Euro is rising, Crude is falling.....i.e. Dollar strngthens, Crude and Gold will fall...As we now have more "value" in the Dollar to buy more oil and gold....a little counter-intuitive... |
1:23 |
[Comment From krishna babu] helo tim what do you think about gold after NFP release |
1:25 |
FXstreet.com: 5 minutes to go |
1:25 |
Tim Salem: Krishna...I think God...and Oil for that matter...will initially fall on the IMMEDIATE release....remember...we have the Big Boys here who will want to position themeselves for a more favorable Price point...regardless of direction. Euro and the dollar majors may be the same...Initial spikes to the downside...but repostioning in line with the negative sentiment... |
1:26 |
[Comment From pepa] if NFP comes -300K what happen to the dollar |
1:26 |
FXstreet.com: 3 minutes to go .. ready ?? |
1:27 |
Tim Salem: But remember...my strong view here is that anything is possible within that first minute...especially with the sentiment of such negativity.....Traders use Data to set up their views...not neccessarily what is "supposed" to happen... |
1:27 |
Tim Salem: 2:30 left...we are on the way!... |
1:27 |
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1:28 |
FXstreet.com: CMS General Research page |
1:28 |
FXstreet.com: Daily video about the main market news |
1:28 |
FXstreet.com: Expert Analysis of Today's Market |
1:28 |
FXstreet.com: Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead |
1:29 |
FXstreet.com: 1 minute to go .. ready? |
1:29 |
[Comment From Guest] 250k - 300k ??!?!?!?! anyone.... :) |
1:29 |
Tim Salem: Euro S @ 1.2650 and R @ 1.3020 ish...so we have a nice range here...regardless of numbers... |
1:30 |
FXstreet.com: -240K (VS forecast -200K) |
1:30 |
FXstreet.com: -240K |
1:30 |
Tim Salem: -240K...relatively in line.... |
1:31 |
Tim Salem: Now...watch your levels here...small nosiy price action...so watch for a sentiment break in the next few minutes.... |
1:31 |
Tim Salem: Remember...everyone is re-positoning... |
1:32 |
Tim Salem: See the initial Doolar strength here???...this is due to the numbers being relatively in line...slightly worse than estimates...but still "in line" overall.... |
1:33 |
FXstreet.com: NFPs -240K (VS forecast -200K) . Unemplymet rate is 6.5% |
1:33 |
Tim Salem: eg, 6.5 Un rate..so we may head to 8% or so in the coming year.... |
1:34 |
Tim Salem: Tex...and everyone...now we will see some movement...it may be muted...as we are in a tight 70-pp range or so.... |
1:35 |
[Comment From tex] so if the forecast is expected..then the dollar will strenghten? |
1:36 |
Tim Salem: Pepa..Euro may counter-rally...but we will se a return to the overall bearish trend ... |
1:36 |
[Comment From pepa] does the euro take a trend or not |
1:37 |
[Comment From tex] wads happening now |
1:38 |
Tim Salem: Tex..right now...we are simply hovering around a bit...when data comes generally in line with expectations...we will see our "range" contract and build with energy....on all pairs... |
1:39 |
[Comment From Santosh] Do we have average hours details as yet? |
1:39 |
FXstreet.com: NFPs was -240K (VS forecast -200K) . Unemplymet rate is 6.5% |
1:39 |
Tim Salem: Santosh...we are unchanged @ 33.6 hours...and a fine point! It is always neccessary to look "inside" the numbers of any Data Release....not just the headline... |
1:41 |
Tim Salem: Everyone...see hoe we are "hovering"?.....as we build this energy of 5 pips, 3 pips, 7 pips,. etc.....we will see a break to expel this energy.....when?...we have no idea.... |
1:42 |
[Comment From fxcm] we are gonne have pretty impressive waves today |
1:42 |
[Comment From jim] Hi Tim and welcome, whats your view for gbp/jpy for next week? are you still bearish? |
1:43 |
Tim Salem: fxcm... if they arrive... they will be delayed... |
1:45 |
Tim Salem: Jim, pound yen is still macro-bearish in my view for several weeks, if not months out. We have to keep in mind what is drviving the Yen and Dollar strength globally...is it because we are in great shpae?...of course not...It is due to risk aversion, and using the low-yielding currencies as a safe haven... |
1:45 |
[Comment From Poohbear] may be the NFP today are not the great "mover" of the markets they used to be |
1:47 |
Tim Salem: In agreemement, Poohbear.....and we have seen this many times...A few years back...NFP was much more "active" and crucial in terms of actually having consistent trading opportunities with it.....then we hit a period of the "doldrums" where market "sentiment" will always override...and simply ignore...any data release. Today just may be one of those instances... |
1:47 |
[Comment From Kachi] plz where do we see stock heading to?south or north? |
1:50 |
Tim Salem: The Equities Open should be interesting...we may see an initial fall in line with the overnight Futures....but with an "in line" sentiment..what I cal the "2nd hour reversal" in the Dow may gives us some appreciation. Will it be a bullish day for the Dow and S&P overall?...I doubt it...just like our Yen Crosses...the weekly and monthly downtrends simply cannot be ignored... |
1:50 |
[Comment From karen] i guess eurusd will break intraday hi of 1.2850 |
1:50 |
[Comment From fxcm] yeah no big boom today, still, week usd is going to stay |
1:51 |
Tim Salem: Karen and Guest...yes indeed, the key areas of 1.2850 on Fiber and 1.59 on Cable will probably be touched relatively soon.... |
1:51 |
[Comment From Guest] it looks like gbp/ud and eur/usd have picked a direction |
1:52 |
[Comment From Guest] is the NPF better or worse than expectations ? |
1:52 |
Tim Salem: So...we are in line with our "overnight" ( my time) sentiments of the majors trending higher....and yes fxcm is correct here......When we donot see a large "event"...we will usually always simply resume the road we were on prior to the Data release.... :-) |
1:53 |
FXstreet.com: NFPs -240K (vs Forecast -200k) |
1:53 |
[Comment From Poohbear] Tim, it may be because of a shift of the paradigm in the FX markets. At my humble opinion, I can count 3 paradigms since 2004: twin deficits => carry trade=> credit crunch |
1:55 |
Tim Salem: Poohbear...indeed!.... This is exactly what we have seen. We must always be aware of these big macro dynamic shifts year over year....Especially with such a comprehensive Data point like NFP...we can use this information months and year out....in ALL markets. |
1:55 |
[Comment From nik] Tim you are a real guru! |
1:55 |
[Comment From ahmed] yes correct !!! |
1:56 |
FXstreet.com: You can keep yourself updated with Tim's blog at http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/ |
1:56 |
Tim Salem: Try to always remember, anything intervetion, data point, sentiment indicator that affects us...will take several months to "digest" and get into the system.... |
1:57 |
[Comment From adamu] where is the direction of the eur/usd as a result of the NFP. up or down? pls help. |
1:59 |
Tim Salem: Adamu..we really were rangebound going into the release...we are following the pre-NFP Price Action of trending gradually higher. This indicates to us that NFP was largely a "non-event" for us in terms of capturing a strong tradable position...and I emphasize STRONG here. I do not take sides with anyone's trading views.....If you are comfortable and it works for you...than buy all means work with it! |
2:02 |
FXstreet.com: Yes you are right. Sorry we made a mistake. Now we are going to change |
2:02 |
[Comment From Dr. S. Sivaraman] When im high, i cut tha low, when low i like to get high. But it might change with actual market conditions |
2:02 |
Tim Salem: Welcome to my dear friend, Dr. Sivaraman! |
2:03 |
[Comment From nik] is this chat a special event for NFP or will it be on everyday? THANX |
2:03 |
Tim Salem: Yes, Dr. S...and this is a fine perspective for everyone to adhere to...as it is a logical view of "adapting" to the Price Action that comes your way...irregardless of the sentiment beforehand. |
2:05 |
Tim Salem: Tank you for your kind commentearlier, Nik! I believe these homepage Live Chat Sessions are 4 times per month.....NFP, BoE, ECB, and the Ed Decisions.....Be sure to check the FXStreet Calendar for your needs. |
2:05 |
FXstreet.com: We have Fed, the BoE, the ECB and NFPs live events every month.. Thank you Tim :-) |
2:06 |
[Comment From Ahmed Salem] Tim what do you think..the news should be bad effect for the usd but its viseversa !!!!!!... |
2:08 |
Tim Salem: Ahmed...yes...and i know it is a counter-intuitive thought. Logically, we would think "OK...the numbers are negative...so the underlying currency should be negative. UT...this is where out broader view comes in! We must look at what has been happening with the Dollar all along before any Data point release. Our Major pairs have been largely bearish...so one Data point..even NFP...will not alter that massive global view..... |
2:09 |
[Comment From Karen] EURUSD 1.2740 support |
2:09 |
Tim Salem: BUT...not UT...sorry.. :-) |
2:11 |
Tim Salem: Indeed, Karen...and for all of you watching Fiber....we are in a tight little range of .12650 major support...to Karen's 1.2740.50 support...and intrady...we may see 1.2850 to cap us into the weekend. See how we are already progressing back to the "Mean" ? |
2:12 |
Tim Salem: The "Mean" of 1.2750/1.2800 in this consolidating channel.... |
2:12 |
Tim Salem: Usef...Indeed!...let's check on Crude and Gold...see where we are... |
2:13 |
[Comment From usef] what about commodities ( gold) ? |
2:15 |
Tim Salem: Nice spikes on Gold during the NFP release hour, and this hour we are already beginning to resume our bearish sentiment a bit....We should cap Price action here between 728.50 and 750.00 for the remainder of the day...and even that is a slightly wide consolidating range... |
2:15 |
FXstreet.com: I would like to specially thank CMS, today’s sponsor, for their support. Please, stay tuned as they will be uploading new NFP review videos and reports along the next hours. Use this links to follow up about today’s main market news. Open a live account with CMS with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now. |
2:16 |
FXstreet.com: CMS General Research page |
2:16 |
FXstreet.com: Daily video about the main market news |
2:16 |
Tim Salem: Crude is literally identical ( and this brings up another correlative point...we will see Crude and Oil run together..in this same fashion we see the Fiber and the Swissy more inversely....We have those tight correlations there...) |
2:17 |
FXstreet.com: It's time to sum up Today's live coverage. The NFPs was (vs forecast -200k). The market reaction was limited. We would like to thank to Tim for his participation today. |
2:17 |
FXstreet.com: Tim , Final word please |
2:18 |
[Comment From nik] C Ya Tim & thankyou....have a good one! |
2:18 |
FXstreet.com: You can keep yourself updated with Tim's blog at http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/ |
2:19 |
[Comment From usef] thanks a lot. |
2:19 |
Tim Salem: Yes, indeed everyone! I wish we would have had a nice "exposive" Event to garner more analysis ! But in a large way...our non-event was fine....as it will answer some larger and more universal questions of what Price does do....It will revert back to it's previous direction before the release.....and we can continue on down the road... :-) |
2:20 |
Tim Salem: Watch for some potential covering as we head into the London close soon....We will see shorts across the board taking profits off the table for the week...so be mindful of this! |
2:20 |
Tim Salem: Thanks again to all!...and I hope to have another opportunity for such a visit! |
2:21 |
FXstreet.com: It has been a great pleasure to have you today with us! Thank you all. I hope to see you all again here in the live coverage.. Have a nice weekend! |
2:22 |
FXstreet.com: ahh You acan also follow up with the NFPs webinar at http://www.fxst |
2:24 |
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