BoE and ECB Live Coverage
| BoE and ECB Live Coverage with Valeria Bednarik | (12/04/2008) Powered by: CoveritLive |
11:35 | FXstreet.com: Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's BoE and ECB Interest Rates Decisions Live Coverage will start in 15 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Valeria Bednarik who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. She will be giving us a direct picture fo the market status. |
11:35 | FXstreet.com: Valeria Bednarik has been an active Forex trader for the last 3 years, specializing in the International Foreign Exchange Market. She also graduates in the Universidad Catolica del Salvador, in Argentina, as a Public Account, specializing in financials and cost managements. She currently manages an important clients portfolio for IFX Markets, Boston and is senior trader manager at Molfx-Management; besides she works training new traders with Trader College LLC specializing in technical analysis, for the English speaking community. |
11:36 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi! hello everybody and welcome. A pleasure to be here again. |
11:36 | FXstreet.com: Hello Valeria, and be very welcome one month more to our special central banks event |
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11:38 | FXstreet.com: We have seen the U.K. economy get caught in the downdraft. The GBP keeps plunging against others. GBP/JPY hit remarkable low at 136.25 yesterday while the GBP fell agaisnt the USD to 1.4661. Today BoE is expected to cut its benchmark interest rates by 100 bps to 2.00%. |
11:38 | FXstreet.com: Eurozone economy is heading into a serious recession. PMI service was
42.5 (vs forecast 43.3) and retail sales dropped sharply to -2.1% (vs
forecast -1.4%). The ECB is expected to cut the benchmark interest rates by 50bps to at 3.25%. |
11:38 | FXstreet.com: Valeria, do you agree with this predictions? |
11:38 | [Comment From mark storey] sorry pressed enter before asking question what is your opinion of rates will go today |
11:39 | Valeria Bednarik: Today, we are expecting further cuts for both central banks. Market is waiting for a 1 basis point cut in england, and a 0.50 cut in Europe. As posted on the blog, both economies are falling apart. |
11:39 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
11:39 | Valeria Bednarik: Although I believe England will probably be more proactive to fight the slowdown |
11:40 | FXstreet.com: What do you think Central Banks will do today? Vote the poll! |
11:40 | Valeria Bednarik: Rates will go down, can't tell you for how much, Mark, question here is, has the market already priced it in or not? |
| 11:40 | Will the BoE cut the bench mark interest rate? Yes, the BoE will cut it by 50bps. ( 7% ) ( 13% ) ( 73% ) ( 0% ) ( 7% ) |
11:41 | Valeria Bednarik: Euro, form a technical perspective, has been consolidating for the past weeks around these levels, and from a technical perspective, seems hard today to break under the yearly minimum at 1.2330 |
11:42 | Valeria Bednarik: but if does, well, the longer term downtrend will be more than confirmed, and expect more falls there |
11:43 | FXstreet.com: Let's start answering some of the question you have sent to Valeria, please, keep on sending your comments or questions, we will try to answer as many as we can. |
11:43 | [Comment From aram] Hello,Valeria Where does the GBP/JPY go in mid term after rate anon? |
11:44 | Valeria Bednarik: Gbp/Jpy is the perfect pair to shown where market forces are: while GBP is weak, Japanese yen remains quite strong, meaning the pair is set to continue to the downside if Gbp confirms the break of today's minimums |
11:45 | [Comment From Sebastian] Valeria, do you think we have seen the market reflect the BoE interest rate cut already? The GBPUSD has dropped 200+ points already today... |
11:46 | Valeria Bednarik: Gbp could drop even more than that with no problems Sebastian! I can see the first tough support zone @ 1.4430, that's the probable target for the pair, if breaks minimum |
11:47 | [Comment From Sunny] has the pound priced in the rate cut already ? it went down from 1.48++ to 1.45++ ... |
11:47 | [Comment From mike Sal] I think Euro will hit 1.1800 |
11:47 | [Comment From mike Sal] Hello,Valeria Where does the GBP/JPY go in mid term after rate anon? |
11:47 | [Comment From mike Sal] Hello,Valeria Where does the GBP/JPY go in long term ? |
11:47 | [Comment From aram] Is it possible GBP/JPY break 130.00 today? |
11:47 | Valeria Bednarik: Sunny, is almost the same i comment to Sebastian... 300 pips in Gbp,is not that much. probably we have some pricing in, let's watch technical levels! |
11:48 | Valeria Bednarik: Sal if Euro breaks under 1.2330 it's a probable target yes! the zone between 1.18/1.19 |
11:50 | Valeria Bednarik: Regarding GBP/JPY the pair remains quite bearish, and with no signs of recovering in longer term charts. A break under today's minimum will proably send the pair to 129.30 zone, an historical minimum |
11:50 | [Comment From rudy] if the ECB cuts .75% what would the EUR do? up or down? |
11:50 | [Comment From Spartan] Valeria if ECB cut rates by 75 bp can we see EUR/USD go up ?? |
11:52 | Valeria Bednarik: Rudy, if i can predict that, i would't be here with you, but already trading almost my last penny. I trade technical levels. If passes under 1.2540, I will choose the downside. Above 1.2680, we could see some corrections, yet I'm not a big fan of trading this kind of fundamentals: we have too much wild swings. I better wait for the trend to set. We can trade all month long, not just today, 6 days a week... 24 hours a day... |
11:54 | Valeria Bednarik: The point is, this huge pip moves make us think we can win a lot in a few seconds.. and we forgot we can lost equaly. Fundamentals are important, we know the strenght or weakness of each corrency, even help us forecast future movements |
11:54 | [Comment From enolase] Hi Valeria. Do you see the GBP gaining on the USD if the BoE cuts by 150bp? last time around, after an initial dip, it went on to gain more than 200 pips on the USD in the next one hour following the report. What's the outlook like? |
11:54 | FXstreet.com: Only 5 minutes to go! |
11:55 | Valeria Bednarik: Enolase, that's exactly my point! wild swings yet after them GBP developed a down trend, that continues today. |
11:56 | Valeria Bednarik: the 200 pips upside run make a lot of stop losees jump... trading with fears.. yet finally the pair fall apart. |
11:56 | [Comment From Alan] if 150 bps, the cable should move back to 14800-14900 |
11:56 | [Comment From rudy] True Valeria, the market makers will decide which way to go whatever he size of rate cut. They are there to make money not to follow fundamentals, at least not in the short run. |
11:56 | Valeria Bednarik: Is not a better idea to wait and see? the pair fall more than 1500 pips from that moment till today |
11:58 | FXstreet.com: 3 minutes before the BoE decision, I would like to recommend you to visit Valeria's Bednarik blog, were you can daily follow her market follow up. |
11:58 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
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11:58 | FXstreet.com: CMS General Research page |
11:58 | FXstreet.com: Daily video about the main market news |
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11:58 | [Comment From Alan] Everybody is bearing on GBP now, so be ready for a strong rally |
11:59 | Valeria Bednarik: exactly! Alan, both majors are quite exhausted in weekly charts. but's that it. We have no signals, no real longer term corrections developing, and worst economic conditions |
11:59 | Valeria Bednarik: Probable yes, not a good time to trade is just betting on what could happen... 50% chances.. but beting. |
11:59 | Valeria Bednarik: 1 minute to go! |
12:00 | FXstreet.com: BoE: Cut its rates by one point |
12:01 | Valeria Bednarik: ok 1 point as expected. |
12:01 | FXstreet.com: BoE oficial site |
12:01 | [Comment From Malcolm] 100 bp? |
12:02 | Valeria Bednarik: not much to say right now, not a clear definition, yet the small upside spike is close to reverse |
12:02 | FXstreet.com: Yes, 100 bp |
12:02 | Valeria Bednarik: yes malcom |
12:02 | FXstreet.com: United Kingdom BoE cuts its Bank rate by 1% to 2% |
12:03 | Valeria Bednarik: Funny if we don't see any movement... neither falls, neither corrections. |
12:03 | Valeria Bednarik: give the pairs at least this 15 minutes candle to decide direction |
12:04 | FXstreet.com: You can read the oficial release at the BoE homepage |
12:05 | Valeria Bednarik: ok 1.4665 will be the zone to watch from here. Above it, the bullish rally can be triggered |
12:05 | [Comment From zeb] cable likely to drop after this rise and then will rise again 1.4500 - 1.4700 range |
12:06 | Valeria Bednarik: 4720 next step, descendant trend line |
12:06 | Valeria Bednarik: if confirms above 4665/70 zone, just tested watch this candle close! nothing confirmed after just 6 minutes |
12:08 | Valeria Bednarik: ok Zeb! let's see I consider this 1.4665/70 zone quite interesting. if unable to break above, will fall later no doubts |
12:09 | FXstreet.com: If you want to follow all the news related to the BoE as soon as they arrive to FXstreet.com, vsit the following link: ECB and BoE related Reports, News and Blogs Our editors are picking just these valuable news right to the minute to offer them exclusivelly to you! |
12:09 | Valeria Bednarik: well from here, is passes under 1.4550/70, the pair could start falling quicker, although for now, is really disapointing. Maybe waiting for ECB? |
12:11 | [Comment From harley] valeria, what timeframe are you looking at for this news release pls. |
12:12 | Valeria Bednarik: I set supports and resistances at 4 hours charts..the mentioned levels. |
12:12 | Valeria Bednarik: Yet follow the release in 15 minutes charts |
12:13 | FXstreet.com: Valeria Bednarik is experiencing technical problems right now, she will be back as soon as the problem will be solved |
12:13 | Valeria Bednarik: Here I am! |
12:13 | Valeria Bednarik: As i was saying i folow the release in 15 minutes charts, and take notice of majors behaviour during fundamentals there |
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12:14 | Valeria Bednarik: usually, meaning not always, this first 15 minutes candle minimum and maximum are quite important for further movements |
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12:15 | [Comment From ali] i suggest that all look for the 1.42 by tomorrow then 1.39 after ten days |
12:15 | Valeria Bednarik: under or above both could trigger some rallies, yet at this point, seems we will be waiting for ECB or even TRichet speach |
12:16 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Ali, that's what I was saying before the release.. if tomorrow or in the next days, the pair manage to break under the 1.4430 key zone, your targets will probably be acomplished quickly. |
12:16 | [Comment From Guest] Why aren't the Pound fundamentals driving the price further downwards after this announcement? |
12:16 | [Comment From Malcolm] Is the BOE decision hawkish or dovish in terms of the fundamentals? |
12:17 | Valeria Bednarik: good questions both! Fundamentals are worsening day after day. The rate cut is supposed to help imporving economic situatuion in the country |
12:18 | Valeria Bednarik: at least that's the idea! Not the only tool, just one to fight back slowdown |
12:19 | [Comment From enolase] FXStreet. how do I register for the News and Blogs section of your site? |
12:20 | Valeria Bednarik: I believe England is more proactive to fight recession, but the downside pressure is still hard |
12:21 | Valeria Bednarik: Enolase, you can access my blog with no registration, just a link in Fxstreet home page |
12:21 | Valeria Bednarik: all blogs I believe |
12:21 | FXstreet.com: Enolase, both sections are open and free for anyone For News, just visit: http://www.fxstreet.com/news/ For Blogs, go to: http://blogs.fxstreet.com/ If you want to register the RSS feeds, please use this URL: http://www.fxstreet.com/syndicate/rss/ |
12:22 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
12:22 | [Comment From ali] i think the whole continent facing same problems and all worsening as Val said, |
12:22 | [Comment From Mr. Cad] Is the GBP going up because of the EUR GBP unwinding because of the ECB rate decision? |
12:22 | [Comment From Alan] BOE is taking the right set of actions. UK will come out of the recession faster than Europe. |
12:23 | Valeria Bednarik: Exactly.. the question here is not who's the stronger, but the less weak. That's the general idea |
12:24 | Valeria Bednarik: Eurogbp is far from unwinding... has set a fresh historical high today, and this is just a logical correction normal on the pair.. take a look at older charts. It has a very clear behaviour after maximums |
12:26 | Valeria Bednarik: Alan i think the same. UK is more "independent" and as I said, proactive. The situation is tough, yet they will come out faster because they have recognized the situation earlier and started acting before Europe |
12:26 | FXstreet.com: let's move now to the next key event, the ECB decision, so what do you expect the European bank will do? Vote the poll! |
| 12:26 | Will the ECB low the bench mark interest rate? Yes, the ECB will cut it by 25bps ( 5% ) ( 43% ) ( 43% ) ( 5% ) ( 5% ) |
12:26 | [Comment From Sohel] ECB will cut 100 bp. they will not do the same mistakes again. |
12:27 | [Comment From zeb] market might be already priced into a rate cut and 2% uk interest rate may help economy to stablize |
12:28 | Valeria Bednarik: Sohel... really believe that much? Of course I'm not saying it could not happen. but after so many months of deny such agressive cut will be recognized the lost battle. |
12:29 | [Comment From enolase] what is the behaviour? at the moment i can't download the EURGBP chart on my platform to look at it. |
12:29 | Valeria Bednarik: anyway! key levels here! 1.2660/80 to the upside. 1.2540 to the downside |
12:29 | FXstreet.com: Enolase, we also offer charts for free on FXstreet.com:http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/ |
12:30 | Valeria Bednarik: enolase, contact me by private e mail, and i will gladly explain to you after the news! |
12:30 | FXstreet.com: http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/, enolase, use this link to browse our free charts |
12:30 | Valeria Bednarik: news! |
12:31 | Valeria Bednarik: ok! gbp now to the downside... aproacching the support zone |
12:33 | Valeria Bednarik: sorry I was weong about time... we have also 15 minutes till the new |
12:33 | Valeria Bednarik: wrong |
12:33 | [Comment From HARi] what time for ecb result? |
12:34 | Valeria Bednarik: 12 minutes |
12:34 | FXstreet.com: ECB will announce it Interest rates decission in 11 minutes |
12:34 | FXstreet.com: 12:45 GMT is the scheduled hour |
12:34 | Valeria Bednarik: if rate is as expected, market could wait for Mr Trichet speech before reacting |
12:34 | [Comment From ali] Val, do u suggest uptrend for eur and gbp if numbers from usa improves |
12:36 | Valeria Bednarik: Ali, not at all, at least yet. Longer term charts are in consolidation mode in euro, and still bearish in GBP. We have even some triangles broken or close to, both to the downside, and id US imporves, dollar will get more stronger |
12:36 | [Comment From enolase] the ECB is known for being more conservative with rate decisions. I doubt if we will see anything beyond 50bp |
12:37 | Valeria Bednarik: I hope I could explain this brief: how long has Europe been deteriorating, and the conservative ECB ignore the slowdown and focused on inflation? |
12:37 | [Comment From Guest] what is the prediction for the market now |
12:38 | Valeria Bednarik: a rate cut even of 0.50 is kind of saying "yes, we were wrong!" and that's does not looks good for euro these days. can you see the point? |
12:39 | [Comment From Mr. Cad] I can only add that Trichet has been consistently worried about inflation and has been mentioning that the ECB mendate is limited only to the monetary policy. So i guess he will still be least worried about growth. |
12:39 | Valeria Bednarik: The prediction is the levels: a confirmation under 1.2540 will send the pair down. Above 1.2690, bullish correction could extend a while |
12:41 | [Comment From ali] val, despite crises started from usa we noticed that dollar got benefited from. and only the american stocks were the least down comparing to the other indeces. i expect if numbers were turning to green we will see numbers from other contenent besides america and that will pick currencies up against usd |
12:41 | Valeria Bednarik: good point Mr. Cad. really but shouldn't they be? If oil recovers the upside trend, after moving just a bit under 50, inflationary pressures will come back: could any central back restart rising rates soon enough? |
12:41 | Valeria Bednarik: what will weigth more? |
12:42 | Valeria Bednarik: Ali, you mean what we can call market optimism, and yes, probably right about that |
12:43 | Valeria Bednarik: but the point is we are very uncertain about what could happen |
12:43 | Valeria Bednarik: in all the economies in the longer term, and big players are also not quite confident |
12:43 | FXstreet.com: Just one minute to go!! |
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12:44 | FXstreet.com: CMS General Research page |
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12:44 | Valeria Bednarik: so the point! for now, dollar remains stronger that Europeans. Japanese yen the strongest currency |
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12:44 | Valeria Bednarik: ok now let's see the new! |
12:45 | FXstreet.com: ECB site crashed a couple of minutes ago... we will inform you here of the result |
12:45 | FXstreet.com: ECB Rates are now at 2,50 points |
12:46 | FXstreet.com: 75 bp cut |
12:46 | Valeria Bednarik: ok more than expected! |
12:47 | FXstreet.com: Despite of some analysts predicted 75 bp rate cut, the widely expected decision was 50 bp cut |
12:47 | Valeria Bednarik: the agressive cuts seems to be positive right now, for Europeans, in the first spike. nothing clear yet to decide majors destiny |
12:47 | [Comment From Mike] but EURUSD rising? |
12:47 | [Comment From Mark (Ohio)] More than expected and the market's going up? The GBP is making another run up also... |
12:48 | Valeria Bednarik: both yes, in fact, but not even close to break mentioned resistances. just normal movements as traders place orders. |
12:48 | FXstreet.com: Read the news: http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=9a1a48bd-d512-4de8-95ad-54887cebb708 |
12:49 | [Comment From Sunny] if euro rises ... will gbp follow suit or just the eur/gbp cross will move |
12:50 | [Comment From ali] down down down, we can have a new song for euro and gbp |
12:50 | Valeria Bednarik: if euro rises gbp could rise too. But Trichet speech could move just euro |
12:50 | Valeria Bednarik: yes Ali... I think the same, just I prefer to wait for technical confirmations. |
12:51 | Valeria Bednarik: Just me. Along the years I learned, thanks God market has only to directions. |
12:51 | FXstreet.com: ECB site is back, read the oficial data: http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2008/html/pr081204.en.html |
12:52 | [Comment From Jon] Hi Valaria, do you see 1.10 gbp/eur |
12:52 | Valeria Bednarik: back! sorry |
12:53 | Valeria Bednarik: i was saying we only have two directions here.. up or down. If we have a plan that covers both. we are in teh good road |
12:53 | [Comment From Anthony] I noticed that the AUD/USD and NZD/USD also reacted in the opposite direction of the longer term move in the first 30 minutes or so (in their case down first then up, as opposed to GBP/USD, EUR/USD up first - then maybe down)... is that just a way of testing the opposite first to see if it has any support. |
12:53 | Valeria Bednarik: You mean Eur/Gbp close to 1.10? form actual price? |
12:54 | Valeria Bednarik: not much more than 0.90 is what I can see there |
12:55 | Valeria Bednarik: Anthony.. good point there! great chat chat today thank you all!! really happy with this. |
12:55 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes majors NEVER move straight. |
12:55 | Valeria Bednarik: Pair test supports, resistances, and after breaks, we see action triggered |
12:56 | Valeria Bednarik: till now, news are quite dissapointing, even boring..... less that 40 pips movements? yet i stick to my view, and plans |
12:58 | Valeria Bednarik: well seems Trichet will be bring more light to the question here, yet both pairs remain bearish at this time |
12:59 | [Comment From ali] it was my honour to chat with yu all, many greetings from me ali faroun |
1:00 | Valeria Bednarik: Tks Ali! |
1:00 | [Comment From Dusan - Slovakia] There is a quite funny story on FX market for some weeeks - when basic rates and indicators go down, currency goes up |
1:01 | FXstreet.com: Please, keep on sending your questions and comments to Valeria |
1:01 | Valeria Bednarik: i guess I should clear something here: the difference between trend and spikes |
1:02 | Valeria Bednarik: we have a bearish trend in Europeans.. probably reenforced because some pricing in of the cuts. |
1:03 | Valeria Bednarik: with the news, we had some really poor bullish spikes, that still hasn't even aproach to change that trend |
1:04 | Valeria Bednarik: So, what will we shoudl pay attention to? |
1:04 | [Comment From Fas] why still euro holding strong i mean there should be some kind of effect before the speech... or can it be like this that if the speech is not dovish but on the other hand rate cut is .75 so do you think market will react in favor of eur i mean it could be flase hopes also in the speech |
1:06 | Valeria Bednarik: i don't see Euro holding strong.. just holding consolidating. |
1:07 | [Comment From Neil] My thoughts on the bearish postion of the GBP hasn't changed after the news ! I'm waiting for a postion to short again ?? |
1:07 | [Comment From Dusan - Slovakia] Valeria, do you think, that $ will be stronger after FED cuts rate to 0,5% on next meeting? |
1:07 | Valeria Bednarik: Fas, I don't get clearly the point of what you are saying. I don't expect Euro to rise, as i said i rather trade technically and away form this false movements we have on releases |
1:09 | Valeria Bednarik: Neil, above this level, your position could be a bit complicated, unless you have enough capital to wait, as long as the pair don't recover the 1.49. |
1:09 | [Comment From Anthony] It seems that many markets I trade... not just forex... move the "false way" first, only to move the other way later after big news |
1:10 | Valeria Bednarik: Dusan greeback is not the stronger, just the less weak. A rate cut there will probably be a bit of interfirence, but when the day comes, will see |
1:12 | Valeria Bednarik: Anthony,nothing goes straight.. players place their bets.. speculation moves currencies.. if not.. how it easy it wpould be! anyway, nothing is going the other way |
1:12 | FXstreet.com: in about 5 minutes we will conclude this live coverage about european central banks. please, send your last questions to Valeria. |
1:13 | FXstreet.com: Valeria, could you give us your final wrap up to today's live coverage? |
1:13 | [Comment From Dusan - Slovakia] Valeria, do you Expect Mr.Trichet to be dovish or hawkish? |
1:13 | Valeria Bednarik: Hawkish! |
1:14 | Valeria Bednarik: I believe he will change his stance. but market will hardly pay attention to it |
1:15 | Valeria Bednarik: As a conclusion, we could say, Trend has not change with the cuts. |
1:15 | [Comment From Anthony] Not impossible for Trichet to do something as silly as be Hawkish considering his comments just a few weeks back that there isn't a credit crisis. |
1:15 | Valeria Bednarik: the economies remain in trouble, and we will need more actions |
1:16 | Valeria Bednarik: form the central banks, or goverments, to see the end of the dark tunnel |
1:16 | FXstreet.com: It's time now to end our Special Live Coverage. I would like to thank you very much to Valeria for her participation today. |
1:17 | Valeria Bednarik: so,! My apologizes but i must leave now! it has been a great really great pleasure to be here |
1:17 | FXstreet.com: Please, follow Valeria's market thoughts and comments on her Intraday Blog |
1:17 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
1:17 | Valeria Bednarik: Hope to see you soon again! bye for now. Wait for you in my blog |
1:17 | FXstreet.com: I would like to specially thank CMS Forex, today’s sponsor, for their support. Use these links to follow up about today’s main market news. Open a live account with CMS with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now. |
1:18 | FXstreet.com: CMS General Research page |
1:18 | FXstreet.com: Daily video about the main market news |
1:18 | FXstreet.com: Expert Analysis of Today's Market |
1:18 | FXstreet.com: Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead |
1:19 | FXstreet.com: I would also like to thank you very much for attending today's Coverage. It has been a great pleasure to be with you today and I hope to see you all again on Friday for the Non-Farm Payrolls Live Coverage. |
1:19 | FXstreet.com: NFP will be covered live right from here, FXstreet.com homepage and we will have Nick Nasad from CMS Forex as an expert analyst. |
1:19 | FXstreet.com: In FXstreet.com will continue covering the markets 24/5! |
1:20 | FXstreet.com: Many thanks and see you on Friday at 13:00 GMT! |
1:20 |  |
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