FXstreet.com Live Sessions Archives: Non-Farm Payrolls Live Coverage

Read all the Non-Farm Payrolls Live Coverage we made with Nick Nasad on Dec 5th.

Non-Farm Payrolls Live Coverage with Nick Nasad

(12/05/2008)
Powered by:
CoveritLive

12:59

FXstreet.com: Good morning, good evening and good to everyone all over the world

1:00	FXstreet.com: Be very welcome back to FXstreet.com today to attend this Non-Farm Payrolls Live Coverage.

1:02	FXstreet.com: I am really delighted to wlecome back to Nick Nasad who will be today with us following the repercussion of the NFP release.

1:02

FXstreet.com: is a currency market analyst with CMS Forex for the last 3 years. He closely monitors fundamental releases and reports their results and provides commentary to the company's clients through CMS Forex's interactive economic calendar Forex Capsule and through daily Forex market video recaps. He has also written extensive educational material on using technical analysis in trading Forex.

1:02	FXstreet.com: Hello Nick!

1:03	Nick Nasad - CMS: Hello everyone!, and thank you fxstreet for having me on again.

1:03

FXstreet.com: I am pelased to announce you that today’s sponsor is CMS Forex. CMS Forex has some of the most competitive Forex trading terms on the market today! Unlike many Forex brokers, CMS Forex allows you to trade both mini (10,000) and standard (100,000) lots under a single account. Open a live account with CMS Forex with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now. CMS Forex also produces expert analysis, market research and daily market news coverage with videos and reports. Browse the following URLs to learn and take profit from their expertise.

1:03	FXstreet.com: CMS General Research page

1:03	FXstreet.com: Daily video about the main market news

1:03	FXstreet.com: Expert Analysis of Today's Market

1:03	FXstreet.com: Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead

1:04

[Ad]

Over 30,000 USD in prizes View

1:04	FXstreet.com: Nick, could you tell us about this CMS Forex championship that is about to start?

1:05	Nick Nasad - CMS: This competition will be beginning this Sunday, so if you want to particiapte at its onset, you will need to have $300 in a live account. You are then automatically enrolled.

1:05	Nick Nasad - CMS: we will have weekly prices of as much a $1,000 and a grand prize for the month (the duration of the contest) that will be $12,000

1:06	Nick Nasad - CMS: Winners will be selected based on the highest increase in P/L per lot traded; three winners will be selected each week and three overall winners will be selected for the entire four-week run of the competition.

1:06	Nick Nasad - CMS: please see the link provided for more info.

1:06

[Ad]

Ultimate Forex Championship View

1:07	Nick Nasad - CMS: So we enter today’s non-farm payroll with some pretty pessimistic forecasts. The consensus forecast is for a loss of 320K-330K jobs, which would be the worst month in more than 30 years. Also, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.8%.

1:07	Nick Nasad - CMS: Though I think few people would be surprised by a number that is worse than that, perhaps close to the -400K range,

1:07

Nick Nasad - CMS:

We saw weekly jobless claims rise above the 500K level, spiking at 525K, and the ADP report came in lower by about 50K. Also, the last three months we have seen the nonfarm jobs data come in worse than the consensus forecast. Im sure there are also some poeple hoping for a number below 300K

1:09	Nick Nasad - CMS: Though I tend not to try and predict what the number will be, and instead try to anticipate the scenarios for a better than expected and a worse than expected number, I think we will get something worse than the consensus.

1:10	FXstreet.com: This was Nick's Preview, so what's yours? Vote the poll!

1:10	How sharp will November's NFP decline be? Less than 300 ( 11% ) 300 to 324 ( 0% ) 325 to t349 ( 11% ) 350 to 400 ( 58% ) More than 400 ( 21% )

1:10	Nick Nasad - CMS: what do you guys think?

1:11	FXstreet.com: Please, keep on sending your comments and questions to NIck, We will try to answer as many as possible

1:11	[Comment From Sebouh] If we get another very bad number concerning the NFP would that bring the risk aversion back particulary in stocks and high yielding currencies.

1:12	Nick Nasad - CMS: Sebouh, that is very likely, though I dont think risk aversion has gone away that much. We did see some positive response to the central banks cut seen this week, but for the most part, the Yen has been gaining all week agaisnt the Dollar.

1:12	Nick Nasad - CMS: I look at Yen pairs to try and gauge how equity markets are doing, and overnight we saw European shares falling.

1:13	Nick Nasad - CMS: similarly the EUR/USD gave up about half of its gains from yesterday on the back of weaker than expected factory orders data from Germany, so the risk appetite there was very short lived.

1:14	[Comment From vj] usually when numbers are bad, $ rallies, but this time #s seem to be worse, do u think $ will rally?

1:15	Nick Nasad - CMS: VJ, you are very correct in that whenever there has been a bout increased risk sentiment, the Dollar has been gaining as investors seek safe haven flows of the Dollar, or at least repatriating funds in the case of American investors.

1:16	Nick Nasad - CMS: but if the news is a serious deterioration of an underlying fundametal in the US like the job market, shoudlnt we see some Dollar pressure emerge?.. I think we are still very much caught up in teh credit crisis and thinks are not operating as they woudl normally.

1:17	Nick Nasad - CMS: the risk to the global economy from a very weak US will increase risk aversion, and I think that will play out as Dollar strength still.. Unless you are putting the Dollar against the Yen

1:17	[Comment From emeka] what would happen to usd if nonfarm payroll is above 400k

1:18	Nick Nasad - CMS: a numbert that is above 400K will do some serious damage to investors confidence, and we will see a fall in US equities, and a serious increase in risk aversion.

1:19	Nick Nasad - CMS: that means the EUR/USD will test its near term support at 1.2560, the POund may break above its recent downard sloping line of resistance and teh USD/JPy mayb fall below its lows already see today .

1:20	[Comment From bakti] if nfp came out worst than expected, will gbp/usd rally? since gbp/usd is not a high yielder after yesterday`s cut

1:21	Nick Nasad - CMS: the GBP/USD hit a fresh 6 and half year low following the interest rate cut of 100 basis points, and for sure its payout for interest is going down, but it still remains a "high yeilder"

1:21	Nick Nasad - CMS: when you look at rollover interest for example

1:22	Nick Nasad - CMS: right now the Dollar is gaining on the Pound prior to the release after testing the newly formed doward channel's resestance

1:23	[Comment From Dusan - Slovakia] Nick, do you think that poor NFP data will push $ higher against € ?

1:23	Nick Nasad - CMS: right now, the EUR/USD has already halved the rally we saw yesterday, and is at the 61.8% retracement from the rally we saw between Nov. 23rd and NOv. 26th (from 1.24 to 1.30)

1:24	Nick Nasad - CMS: I think this is a key level right now, and with a worse than expected result right now favoring risk aversion, I think it would push the dollar higher, to test 1.2560, which would be the 76.4% retracement of the levels I mentioned before

1:25	[Comment From Sebouh] The point is already a very bad number is aleady factored in the market. My question is why would an NFA number greatly impact the market especially in a time when everyone thinks that the number will be bad

1:26	FXstreet.com: (Only 4 minutes for the release!)

1:26	Nick Nasad - CMS: Sebouh, I agree with you here, but "rational" is not the name of the game these days. Still a worse than expected number will mean that the recession seen in the US is accelerating, and that will have ramification going forward.

1:27

[Ad]

Over 30,000 USD in prizes View

1:27	FXstreet.com: CMS Forex, today’s Sponsor also produces expert analysis, market research and daily market news coverage with videos and reports. Browse the following URLs to learn and take profit from their expertise.

1:27	FXstreet.com: CMS General Research page

1:27	FXstreet.com: Daily video about the main market news

1:27	FXstreet.com: Expert Analysis of Today's Market

1:27	FXstreet.com: Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead

1:27	FXstreet.com: Nick, what could you tell us about the excellent video you daily produce?

1:27	Nick Nasad - CMS: also, I would like to point you to our CMS Forex Trading Power Course http://www.cmsfx.com/en/forex-education/forex-webinars/

1:28	Nick Nasad - CMS: Yes, at CMS we produce a daily market recap video that brings together the day's fundamental news and shows off several key market highlights

1:29	Nick Nasad - CMS: you can see an example from the link provided above. "Daily Video"

1:29	Nick Nasad - CMS: ok, so were getting close, and right now there are no key moves.. everyone is anticipating the data

1:30	Nick Nasad - CMS: ok, big jump in USD/JPY

1:30	FXstreet.com: -533K

1:30	Nick Nasad - CMS: oh boy.. so the number is way below forecast

1:30	FXstreet.com: unemployment at 6.7%

1:31	Nick Nasad - CMS: and I think half a million!, will surely have a negative effect on risk sentiment, right now the USD/JPY had a quick knee jerk reaction falling to 91.73

1:31	FXstreet.com: NOV CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: -533K -335KE; CHANGE IN MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS: -85K -100KE

1:31	FXstreet.com: NOV UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 6.7% 6.8%E

1:32	FXstreet.com: US Jobless increase in unempyoment is hte highest since Dec 1974

1:32	Nick Nasad - CMS: looks like the market is not taking the bait though, and the knee-jerk reaction is getting cut down quickly. ALso the EUR/USD is rising.

1:32	FXstreet.com: Nick, what could you tell us about this numbers?

1:32	[Comment From Sebouh] This is a really bad number. I think this credit crunch is eating the economy

1:33	FXstreet.com: Please, view the oficial Data: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

1:33	Nick Nasad - CMS: it seems that the market may be more focused on the underlying message this sends about the US economy and may be ovberpowering the usual dollar strength associated with risk aversion

1:34	[Comment From enolase] what would be the best currency to trade this report with? USDJPY?

1:36	Nick Nasad - CMS: The USD/JPY usually has the biggest correlation with risk sentimetn and what is going on with equities, so yes I tend to look at Yen crosses to gauge immediate reaction to the news.

1:36	Nick Nasad - CMS: for sucha large (negative) number, the markets (EUR/USD and USD/JPY) are fighting back and forth.

1:37	[Comment From vj] the assumption that US will be first to recover from the financial crisis is driving $ strength

1:37	Nick Nasad - CMS: in teh USD/JPy we did have a break our near term downward channel,

1:37	Nick Nasad - CMS: and we are now retesting the new low set directly after the release at 91.75

1:38	Nick Nasad - CMS: the USD/CAD is also shooting higher, after a strong climb allready prior to the release.

1:39	Nick Nasad - CMS: VJ, i dont think that is very true.. The US economy is really struggling right now, housing is yet to recover, consumer spending is very low, manufacturing and services are feeling the credit crunch, and increasing unemployment...

1:40	Nick Nasad - CMS: but somehow ironically, when you think back even earlier to this year, the fact that the $ is the "global currency" has really helped it during this time of crisis.. It was losing this status when it was weakening during the summertime

1:41	[Comment From Sebouh] Nick the sentiment after this report will definitly impact the consumer confidence but my question is today if the automakers get their loan would that in away allievate the impact from this report

1:42

Nick Nasad - CMS: It may give a temporary boost to confidence as a failure of the automakers will have wide ramifications for the economy. I think today's jobs report will further hinder consuemr and business confidence, which will mean less spending, less growth in GDP and a rough start to 2009

1:43	[Comment From chidi] what's the direction of gbp/usd in the market now

1:44	Nick Nasad - CMS: The GBP/USD was pretty quiet in the aftermath of the release, but is now falling in favor or the Dollar, if you were trading the downward channel and sold around 1.47 anticipating a weak number, then you are in luck.. suuport is at 1.45

1:44	Nick Nasad - CMS: we are starting to see our original scenario for a poor number play out

1:44	Nick Nasad - CMS: with the Dollar gaining on the Euro and Pound and falling against the Yen.

1:45	[Comment From Stefan] Ok look, the biggest loss in the unemployment is from service providing businesses, thats mostly from the financial sector. Do u think overall the rest of the numbers are normal?

1:47

Nick Nasad - CMS: Stefan, thats a very good point. The woes in the financial sector are definetly pushign pu the jobless claims and mothly jobs report.. but what hits Wall Street will hit Main street shortly after. This 4th quarter is going to be weak in terms of consumer spending, which will filter down to retialers, and otehr businesses

1:48

Nick Nasad - CMS: Manufacturing firms cut 85,000 jobs, with automobile and auto parts makers accounting for 13,000 job losses. Manufacturing losses would have been even larger if not for the return of 27,000 striking aerospace workers last month. Construction employment was down by 82,000. In a particularly worrying sign, service-sector employment plunged 370,000. Business and professional services companies shed 136,000 jobs - the 10th drop in 11 months - and financial-sector payrolls were down 32,000. Retail trade cut over 91,000 jobs, reflecting the pullback in consumer spending. Leisure and hospitality businesses, meanwhile, shed 76,000 jobs. Temporary employment, which economists consider a bellwether for future job prospects, fell more than 78,000

1:49	Nick Nasad - CMS: here is a breakdown of today's data, so you can see that the losses were still widespread even if they were dominated by service-sector employment.

1:50	Nick Nasad - CMS: USD/CAD is close to reaching 1.30..

1:50	[Comment From aiman alburhani] what do u think about the Eur.Usd now.. it is struggling..

1:50	Nick Nasad - CMS: yesterday's break above the recent upward channel has turned into a legitamite breakout..

1:50	Nick Nasad - CMS: we have discussed how to trade channels in our webinars that I mentioned before.

1:50	Nick Nasad - CMS: you can see archived lessons here: http://www.cmsfx.com/en/forex-education/forex-webinars/

1:51	Nick Nasad - CMS: yes the EUR/USD is struggling, and the fall from overnight is now being extended

1:51	Nick Nasad - CMS: we had a pretty clear break of the 61.8% retracement I was talking about earlier and we look destinced to test support now below 1.26

1:52	[Comment From Jahson4u] The Aussie has been the least affected by the global financial crisis and economic recession thus far...from a technical level, it has the most "catching up" to do..i am short AUDJPY @59.5...holding out for a huge drop!

1:53	Nick Nasad - CMS: I havn't been looking at my Aussie pairs, but similar to the USD/CAD the AUD/USD is falling steeply

1:54	Nick Nasad - CMS: in a more general sense, the pair has seen a dramtic fall since teh RA started cutting rates and we were at a 26 year high or something in JUly.

1:54	Nick Nasad - CMS: We are seeing a period of consolidation since mid-October, with key support at the 0.60 level

1:55	[Comment From Stefan] Nick, as we look at the chart we have a pretty strong support level around 1.26-.12580, Do u think with the current fundamental date we will go through it? And if we don't isn't that a strong bulllinsh signal?

1:55	Nick Nasad - CMS: yes I would watch this level very closely. if support holds one more time this week it would be bullish for the pair.

1:56	Nick Nasad - CMS: Though if the pair falls a little below that level, say 1.25 it may be a clear out action, so your secondary support should be a little lower.

1:57	Nick Nasad - CMS: Personally, I have an upward channel connecting main lows from Oct 24th

1:57	Nick Nasad - CMS: sorry, upward sloping line of support

1:59	Nick Nasad - CMS: we are seeing a slight pullback right now to our moves.

1:59	Nick Nasad - CMS: and US stocks are about to open.

1:59	[Comment From bob] Where is the logic ? Such a bad number, deep recession, crisis....and the dollar is gaining against all pairs

2:00	Nick Nasad - CMS: yeah bob, its a little hard to figure out and much different from the action we woudl expect prior to the credit crisis..

2:01

Nick Nasad - CMS: but alot of this has to do with deleveraging, and US investors repatriating funds away from foreign investments. For those outside the US, in such a risky environment, US Treasuries carry some allure and the past couplefo months have seen heavy buying there which has helped to boost the Dollar..

2:02	Nick Nasad - CMS: when the crisis gets under control, and credit is unthawed we will start to see a depreciation of the Dollar as traders begin to focus on the underlying fundamentals of the economy.

2:04	[Comment From Mr. Cad] The markets are stabilizing. Do you think the focus now shifts to the FED next week.

2:05	[Comment From mr cable] buying treasuries bob. buy usd to buy treasuries, safe haven

2:05	Nick Nasad - CMS: Yes, I think such a big number will put heavy pressure on the federal reserve. Rates area already low but we will probably see another move regardless. we are getting closet to a ZIRP in the US, which may be the thing that helps increase lending.

2:06	[Comment From nicole] so we should see a lot of action 28 mins laterwhen US opens

2:06	Nick Nasad - CMS: id expect a 50 basis point cut next week.

2:07	Nick Nasad - CMS: nicole, i think stocks will take this number negatively, and how US equities respon will be an importnat element in watching the USD/JPY pair, among others.

2:08	Nick Nasad - CMS: the dow jones may retest its support from eaerlier in the week near 8150

2:08	[Comment From Jahson4u] At the end of the day, US assets are still the safest, "relative" to everything else..hence the reason for purchasing US treasuries

2:10	[Comment From aiman alburhani] could eur. usd finally take the right direction? up?...

2:11	Nick Nasad - CMS: do you belive this because you think the Euro-zone economy is better suited to handle this crisis, or because the Euro has a higher interest rate than the US?

2:12	Nick Nasad - CMS: we dont seem to be living in more "normal" times when I think you would surely be correct in that the right direction would be Euro strength...

2:12	Nick Nasad - CMS: but something liek yesterday, when teh ECB cut rates by more than expected, that woudl usually pressure a currency

2:12	Nick Nasad - CMS: but instead the EUro gained because it may mean a quicker recovery..

2:13	[Comment From Sebouh] Nick do you think this crises to bottom down until 2010

2:14	Nick Nasad - CMS: its hard to tell... two things to watch for are any signs that credit markets are lending again,. and look for some positive numbers form housing,. there will be no recovery until the housing market stabilizes.

2:15	Nick Nasad - CMS: we will also have to see what kind of tricks incoming administration will have in terms of restoring confidence and trying to create new jobs thorugh some kind of stimulus package

2:15	[Comment From Ralph] When the Feds cut interest rates 50 basis points. How will this effect the value of EUR/USD

2:15	[Comment From Ralph] It seems their is no fundmental reason for some of these big moves in the forex

2:17

Nick Nasad - CMS: i think alot will have to do with the statement as well as the actual cut.. If its done as a sign of desperation, traders will not take much solace from another cut until those lower borrowing costs are filtered down to consumers, business and mortgages and it actually starts helping..

2:17	Nick Nasad - CMS: I think you will see some coordinated effort by policy makers to try and talk some confidence into the markets despite the data

2:18	Nick Nasad - CMS: just this week bernanke lend his support to using governmetn money to help slow th rate of foreclusres in teh country.. lok for more talk like that..

2:18	Nick Nasad - CMS: Ralph, for ur second question, it does seem that risk sentiment is the main driver of forex the last 2 months.

2:19	FXstreet.com: Nick, I would like to take a couple of minutes to ask you about the Forex Championship that will start next Sunday... What should I do if I want to participate? Do I have time to register?

2:19	Nick Nasad - CMS: all live accounts with CMS Forex that have above $300 are automatically entered

2:20	Nick Nasad - CMS: so, if you are already a client of CMS and have below that amount, just fund your account.. if you arent a CMS client, you will have to open a live account. we will be running this contest for all of december and there are weekly and monthly prizes

2:21	Nick Nasad - CMS: so even if you dont sign up till next week, you can still participate.

2:21	FXstreet.com: That's Great!

2:21	FXstreet.com: Where should I go to register?

2:21	Nick Nasad - CMS: http://www.cmsfx.com/en/my-account/open-free-practice-account/ultimate-forex-championship/

2:22	FXstreet.com: GREAT!!!

2:22	Nick Nasad - CMS: follow the "open a live account" link from this page =-)

2:22	Nick Nasad - CMS: im sorry ladies and gentlemen but my time is running short here..

2:22	Nick Nasad - CMS: ill try and answer a final question or two

2:23	FXstreet.com: Ok,let's go for the last questions... I'll register for the Forex Championship in the meantime

2:23	[Comment From Dusan - Slovakia] Nick, what do you think - why rate €/$ just oscilates a few pips around 1,27 for nearly one hour after NFP release, that used to be main market mover in tehe past?

2:24	Nick Nasad - CMS: we are seeing a retracement of some of our earlier moves in EUR/USD and USD/JPY

2:26

Nick Nasad - CMS: it is interesting that we are not having a bigger move in teh EUR/USD, but perhaps the selling pressure here has dried up following yesterday's rally.. we did not test support near 1.26, so traders may be feeling a further push down is not warrented.. the USD/JPY reacted more one dimentionally favoring the Yen.

2:27	FXstreet.com: It's time to conclude this live event... I would like to thank you very much Nick for your participation.

2:28	Nick Nasad - CMS: Thank you for having me on, and thank you everyone for your questions

2:28	FXstreet.com: I would like to specially thank CMS Forex, today’s sponsor, for their support. Use these links to follow up about today’s main market news. Open a live account with CMS with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now.

2:28	FXstreet.com: CMS General Research page

2:28	FXstreet.com: Daily video about the main market news

2:28	FXstreet.com: Expert Analysis of Today's Market

2:28	FXstreet.com: Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead

2:29	FXstreet.com: And don't forget there is still time to register for their Forex Championship... $30,000 in prizes!!

2:29

[Ad]

Over 30,000 USD in prizes View

2:30	FXstreet.com: Click on View in the mess above and follow the link for more info

2:31	FXstreet.com: I would also like to thank you very much for your participation. Next Live Coerage will be on December, 16th for the FED Interest Rates Decision. I hope to see you all there. Nick Nasad will repeat as the expert and he will be sharing with us again his market vission.