ECB Live Coverage
| ECB Interest Rates decission Live Coverage | (01/15/2009) Powered by: CoveritLive |
12:13 | FXstreet.com: Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's BoE Interest Rates Decision Live Coverage will start in 2 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Valeria Bednarik who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. She will be giving us a direct picture fo the market status. |
12:14 | FXstreet.com: Valeria Bednarik has been an active Forex trader for the last 3 years, specializing in the International Foreign Exchange Market. She also graduates in the Universidad Catolica del Salvador, in Argentina, as a Public Account, specializing in financials and cost managements. She currently manages an important clients portfolio for IFX Markets, Boston and is senior trader manager at Molfx-Management; besides she works training new traders with Trader College LLC specializing in technical analysis, for the English speaking community. |
12:16 | FXstreet.com: Hi Valeria, Thanks for meeting us today! |
12:17 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi everybody! welcome to this live ECB's coverage! is a pleasure to be here with you today, again |
12:17 | FXstreet.com: Today the ECB is widely expected to cut the ongoing interest rates by 50bps to 2.00%.The EUR/USD found a support level at 1.3090 yesterday. Currently the pair is moving sideways above 1.3100 level, in a narrow range of 100 pips. It is important to determine how the ECB considers the current economic situation. A hawkish view would boost up the EUR/USD towards 1.3500 level, on the hand, a dovish view would drag the pair down below 1.3000 level. Trichet speech is scheduled at 13:30GMT. What do you think Valeria? |
12:17 | Valeria Bednarik: Today, we are expecting ECB to cut rates..as the administrator is posting. |
12:18 | Valeria Bednarik: I believe the cut is already priced in in Euro price, at least if they stay into the 0.50 basis point |
12:19 | Valeria Bednarik: Better chances to see market react to Mr Trichet words, as the hawkish or dovish perspective, will decide the Euro destiny. Right now I wonder what can we call a hawkish speach, |
12:21 | Valeria Bednarik: The economic slowdown is worsening in Europe, Standar & Poor's is hitting bank qualifications day after day (italy, Greece, Spain), so what can he say, to turn thing from here? |
12:22 | Valeria Bednarik: Anyway, we can especulate about it, yet the true will be here in an hour or so. From a technical perspective, the key points to consider, in one way or the other, are 1.3090 to the downside, 1.3260 to the upside |
12:22 | Valeria Bednarik: A clear break of any of them, will probably define the rest of the day trend for the pair |
12:24 | Valeria Bednarik: By this time, dollar continues to push higher across the board, seems market players are betting on a dovish speach. |
12:25 | Valeria Bednarik: Let's also remember, inflation is slowing down in the Euro zone (finally taking notice that oil has come form 150 to 35 dollars a barrel) |
12:26 | FXstreet.com: Thank you very much Valeria for sharing your approach with us |
12:26 | Valeria Bednarik: that makes cutting rates easier |
12:26 | FXstreet.com: I would like to hear now what our viewers think... Vote the poll!!! |
| 12:26 | Will the ECB low the bench mark interest rate? Yes, the ECB will cut it by 25bps ( 5% ) ( 68% ) ( 24% ) ( 0% ) ( 2% ) |
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12:28 | FXstreet.com: Valeria Bednarik will be back woth us to answer your questions in just a couple of minutes, in the meantime I would like to remind all of you that Valeria is one of our bloggers and the author of The Advisor Blog |
12:28 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
12:29 | FXstreet.com: For all the Spanish viewers and for all those who would like to meet Valeria and travel to Spain, I am glad to announce you that Valeria Bednarik is preparing a course in Valencia for the next month. |
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12:30 | FXstreet.com: Val, what could you explain us about the course? |
12:30 | Valeria Bednarik: From a technical perspective, the pair Eur/Usd is set to fall in the longer term |
12:31 | Valeria Bednarik: Ok to the course sorry! the course is a complete technical education one |
12:31 | Valeria Bednarik: the idea is explain all the tools we have avaiable for trading, help participants to design and use trading systems, and complete it with an on line tutorial after that live week |
12:32 | Valeria Bednarik: we will cover all: undertood fundamentals, money management, risk control, not just technical analysis, although as you know, I'ma technical trader, so that will be the center of it |
12:34 | Valeria Bednarik: Sorry! lost conexion for a sec! Back to Euro enough course! |
12:34 | FXstreet.com: thanks Valeria, we have some quetions from our viewers, let's answer as many as possible |
12:35 | FXstreet.com: If your question is not answered during the Live Coverage, you can contact Valeria on her blog |
12:35 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
12:36 | [Comment From Guest] waht is the chance of a 1pp cut |
12:36 | Valeria Bednarik: Take a look at the bigger charts i have been posting in my blog: december huge movements, have been exactly the 61.8% correction form 1.60 to 1.23 and by this time, remains also under the 38.2% around 1.3740. Chances of a downside continuation in the medium term remains high |
12:36 | Valeria Bednarik: I don't expect such a large rate cut today |
12:38 | Valeria Bednarik: BeHowever if they do, Euro could quicky fell apart agaisnt most rivals |
12:39 | Valeria Bednarik: a good chance to trade Euro gbp, or Eur/Jpy as those pairs will give larger rallies in that case |
12:40 | [Comment From gcfx] Eur/usd is going down 1.2880 |
12:40 | [Comment From gcfx] technical will act |
12:40 | FXstreet.com: For all of you that have asked about the time for the released, the data will be announced in 5 minutes: 12:45 GMT |
12:40 | [Comment From Guest] Why do you say the long term pair is bearish? |
12:40 | Valeria Bednarik: No doubts about that, my friend. |
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12:41 | Valeria Bednarik: I guess i explain that in previous answer... also you can see the pair break under a huge ascendnat monthly line, complete the pullback, at 1.4700 zone and come back from there to actual levels |
12:43 | [Comment From Gregy3d] Do you think that EUR/JPY at 110 is reality this week? In case of 0,75 rate cut, of course. |
12:45 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes Greg, a bigger cut and Japanese Yen strength will certainly take the pair to the downside. not dare to say 110, but probably an interesting fall in there fist to 114.00 zone, important minimum in daily charts.Under that, a test of 110 is likely |
12:45 | FXstreet.com: As expected, the ECB cut rates by 0,50 bps |
12:45 | Valeria Bednarik: time for the news! |
12:46 | FXstreet.com: Valeria, this is going to give a breath to the Eurozone Economy, don't you think so? |
12:46 | Valeria Bednarik: ok no surprises in the number, the cut was as expected. Let's see if the pair chose a direction with this data or waits for Trichet's speach |
12:47 | Valeria Bednarik: I believe yes, some relief to common people pockets, yes |
12:48 | Valeria Bednarik: Mortgage is the root of this global crisis... begining in the U.S yet extendend all across the world. A smaller rate means smaller payments, and more money, more consumer movements |
12:49 | Valeria Bednarik: the kick start for growth |
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12:50 | Valeria Bednarik: No much market reaction at the moment, market is waiting for Trichet! |
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12:51 | Valeria Bednarik: Finally some reaction let's see if the pair manages to break under yesterday's low, 1.3090 |
12:52 | FXstreet.com: Let's continue answering some of the questions we are receiving today. Please, keep on sendng them to Valeria. We will stay live from FXstreet.com covering Trichet's speech too |
12:52 | [Comment From Piotr] cut is too small for braeth , dont You think so ? |
12:52 | Valeria Bednarik: theat willbring more selling pressure to the pair. Also if you take a look at Swiss Franc, the pair is ready to break to the upside, oonce it pass the congestion zone between 1.1240/70 |
12:53 | Valeria Bednarik: Is better than nothing actual rates are low enough and leave some room for more if necesary |
12:55 | Valeria Bednarik: here we are! both pairs are attemtimg to break! if next 15 minutes candle confirms the movement we could see good rallies triggered al across the board |
12:56 | [Comment From SWEIS] DO YOU TINK IT WILL REVERSE BACK UP TODAY TO 1.32400? |
12:56 | [Comment From Paul Giggs] do you expect euro to rebound in the coming minutes? |
12:56 | Valeria Bednarik: Gbp by the way, is moving quite slowly and as said before, Eur Gbp and Eur/Jpy are giving interesting movements |
12:57 | Valeria Bednarik: sweis, will depend on trichet speach.. however the pair remains pushing to the downside, If confirms under 1,3080 no much chances of such come back |
12:58 | Valeria Bednarik: Paul, not in the coming minutes no. |
12:59 | Valeria Bednarik: movements will continue choppy but seems that pushing to the downside |
12:59 | [Comment From Engin] what you mean with "confirm" of under 1,3080? |
12:59 | [Comment From Tauseef] at what level you suggest of buying usd/chf? |
1:00 | Valeria Bednarik: menaing to wait for a candle openning or so. at least 15 mnutes after the new is realised. |
1:01 | Valeria Bednarik: Tauseef, from actual price, the pair could come back to the 1.1240 zone... and should hold there to remain bullish. Above 1.1280, probable run to 1.1320 |
1:02 | Valeria Bednarik: as fisrt target zone, and adressing to 1.15 zone |
1:03 | Valeria Bednarik: We have some conexion delay, sorry for the inconvinience |
1:05 | Valeria Bednarik: The pair is fighting around 1.3100, and Swiss with the 1.1270 zone, yet they remain close enough to suggest a continuation form here. |
1:06 | [Comment From Shen] what's your target if eur under 1.3080? |
1:07 | Valeria Bednarik: Well close to 1.3000 zone, |
1:07 | Valeria Bednarik: if 1.30 gives up, tight your seat belts! |
1:08 | [Comment From Steve] What do you think Trichet's bias will be? More concerned about a liquidity trap or accepting of greater recessionary pressures? |
1:09 | Valeria Bednarik: I wish I could understand him a bit more.. last year, while the world was falling apart, he insisted on a hawkish vias |
1:09 | Valeria Bednarik: finally nobody take him seriously. |
1:10 | Valeria Bednarik: Is not just what he is going to say, is more on how market will undertand it. any aproach to recessionary pressures, will be highly dovish understood |
1:10 | Valeria Bednarik: As I said earlier, I me, myself, and just me, can't see room for hawkish comments |
1:11 | [Comment From Guest] what is trichet expected to say that could impact eur/usd? |
1:11 | Valeria Bednarik: Would any of you believe it, if he says something like We are doing fine? We are coming out? |
1:13 | Valeria Bednarik: He is expect to be worried about recession and economic slowdown, and not about inflation. Inflation has been the excuse to push rates higher. Now with low inflations levels, there are no chances of going that way |
1:13 | [Comment From Guest] what now eur fall under 80 |
1:13 | Valeria Bednarik: 15 minutes to the beginning of the speach! Anyway, rememeber.. usually market will jump on each sentence |
1:14 | [Comment From Guest] What is the outlook for the next Fed meeting? |
1:14 | Valeria Bednarik: he says, so won't be time to enter the market |
1:15 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes Euro is going down, but if you ask me, I will tell you to stay away. World won't end today.. not even trading |
1:17 | Valeria Bednarik: I have not read much about Fed's next meeting yet, but think of this: Obama will be the president finally. Will he do all he is saying? or wil they finally bring rates directly yo 0.00% as rumours we are hearing? well if they finally decide to use other tools than rates, That could be dollar positive. |
1:17 | Valeria Bednarik: Sendin rates directly to 0.00% won't make a difference. Besides is clear they won't rise rates for a good number of months |
1:18 | [Comment From Blackforext] where do you see the support coming in on the downside. what are we looking for in the press conf to get the currency to really move |
1:18 | FXstreet.com: Trichet's Speech will start in about 10 min (13:30 GMT and will finnish at 14:00 GMT) |
1:19 | Valeria Bednarik: The pair is right now in the first suppor zone suggested, 1.3090, still not confirming a break under, and probably waiting at this time, for Trichet speach. |
1:20 | Valeria Bednarik: The currency is moving, if you mean to see a long straight rally, you will have to way till the end of the speach, as usually each sentence sends the pair 15 pips up or down. without much sense |
1:22 | Valeria Bednarik: Swiss is making the pullvack to the suggested zone around 1.1240... that should hold to see more upside there. Swiss behaves as Euro mirror, that's why i'm also watching the pair |
1:22 | Valeria Bednarik: Besides is fighting with the neck of an inverted head and shouldes figure. |
1:22 | Valeria Bednarik: shoulders. sorry for my spelling |
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1:25 | [Comment From Don] ha ha ha so you said "well if they finally decide to use other tools than rates, That could be dollar positive. " SO WHAT then i NEGATIW for the dollar. Lokks like no mather what we should buy dollars ha ha ha |
1:26 | FXstreet.com: CMS General Research page |
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1:26 | [Comment From Tibo] Valeria, with the reform of the system the G20 want to implement, do you think we could go back to fixed rates? |
1:27 | Valeria Bednarik: Don, I could be wrong.. of course, I'm an human expresing my own opinions.. yet longer term charts suggest that! let's see if 1.30 gives up to confirm that in the longer term |
1:29 | Valeria Bednarik: Tibo, that' a bit far from sight for me at the moment. |
1:30 | [Comment From Mr.Cad] The real figure to watch will be the EURGBP now and that should etermine the direction of the Eur...no? |
1:31 | FXstreet.com: Watch Trichet's Speech live from the ECB website |
1:32 | Valeria Bednarik: Ok some upside correction at the moment. Mr Cad, I don't see things like that, but is a way. The pair has run up close to 0.98, and if you see charts, 0.8840, will be the key point to consider there to see more falls. However that could happen not only with an euro fall, but also with some Gbp movements. |
1:33 | Valeria Bednarik: looking majors against Usd, is more objetive, at least for me |
1:34 | [Comment From naftula] Valeria, What shoulder are you talking about, what time frame? |
1:34 | FXstreet.com: we ae now awaiting Trichet's Speech, it seems he is delaying his appareance |
1:35 | Valeria Bednarik: Naftula, daily charts in USD/CHF an inverted head and shoulder figure. I will post in in the blog after the press conference, so you can see what i see |
1:35 | [Comment From bill] do you think job claim gonna impact eu? |
1:36 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes Bill no doubts about that. unemployment is a big issue to consider in the nearer future in the Euro zone |
1:37 | Valeria Bednarik: I believe we are goint that way right now and will kept worsening this first half of the year, at least |
1:38 | Valeria Bednarik: Ok Trichet begin his speach, and he saws inflationary pressures dimishing further. |
1:38 | Valeria Bednarik: Again he is focusing on infaltion rather than growth |
1:39 | Valeria Bednarik: at least at the beginning. let's see what else he has to add |
1:40 | Valeria Bednarik: Swiss Franc 1.1240 zone holds pretty well by the way. Let's see if the pair manages to break precious max and adress to 1.1320 |
1:42 | Valeria Bednarik: Ok, Trichet also added that "economic growth risk lies clearly on the downside". |
1:44 | FXstreet.com: Valeria, what do you think about Trichet's last comment |
1:44 | Valeria Bednarik: He expect inflation to increase again in 2009... and the euro jumps to the upside |
1:44 | Valeria Bednarik: As told you, not a great definition situation during the speach. |
1:45 | FXstreet.com: Inflation Likely To Increase Again In 2H 2009 HICP Will Fluctuate Sharply In 2009 Govt Action Should Help Ensure Fincl System Trust |
1:45 | FXstreet.com: More comments: Turmoil Intensification Can Affect Monetary Devts |
1:45 | Valeria Bednarik: Above 1.3180, the pair could return to 1.3210/30, let´s see. |
1:46 | [Comment From Anthony] but if one were to go either short EURUSD, or long USDCHF... which do you think would be more effective? |
1:47 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes, I believe there is the worst problem for the ECB despite he talks about inflation: the whole finnacial system structure falling apart with negative qualifications from Standar &Por's |
1:48 | [Comment From Pritesh] Yesterday we saw a similar EURUSD sell-off but it recovered slightly to stay within key moving averages. Trichet's going to decide this one today it seems. |
1:48 | Valeria Bednarik: I rather like swiss franc, but because I can see it clearly close to 1.15 if breaks to the upside. |
1:50 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes Pritesh you are right. Market will decide on Trichet's words |
1:50 | FXstreet.com: Look now at latest Trichet's comment: Fiscal Policy Must Be Prudent On Stimulus Measures |
1:50 | Valeria Bednarik: Meaning probably they won't continue to inject capitals? |
1:51 | FXstreet.com: Members Need To Strengthen Euro Zone Econ Resilience, he just said |
1:51 | Valeria Bednarik: as said before keeping the finnancial system safe has to be one of ECB's priorities. |
1:52 | FXstreet.com: Trchet's Speech is over |
1:52 | FXstreet.com: Well, Valeria, any final word after his appareance? |
1:53 | Valeria Bednarik: ok, still we have the questions during the press conference, but I will suggest yo all to wait at least 15 minutes to enter the market |
1:54 | FXstreet.com: Please, send your las questions to Valeria. In about 5 minutes we are going to finnish this live Coverage |
1:54 | Valeria Bednarik: Watch the levels mentioned earlier for the short term direction, the zone @ 1.3180 to the upside, the minimus just acomplished to the downside @ 1.3070 |
1:55 | Valeria Bednarik: For what I can see right now, selling pressure is still high in Euro, |
1:56 | Valeria Bednarik: Anyway, the rate was as expected, the speach not as dovish as should have been for me. |
1:57 | FXstreet.com: Time to wrap up this Live Coverage today. Many thanks Val for your participation in this live coverage today. It has been a great pleasure to count on you. Valeria Will now continue watching the markets in her Blog. |
1:57 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
1:57 | Valeria Bednarik: Thank you all for being here! see you soon! bye |
1:58 | FXstreet.com: Thansk to all of you for your participation! |
1:58 | FXstreet.com: I would like to specially thank CMS Forex, today’s sponsor, for their support. Use these links to follow up about today’s main market news. Open a live account with CMS with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now. |
1:59 | FXstreet.com: CMS General Research page |
1:59 | FXstreet.com: Daily video about the main market news |
1:59 | FXstreet.com: Expert Analysis of Today's Market |
1:59 | FXstreet.com: Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead |
1:59 | FXstreet.com: See you soon! |
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