BoE Live Coverage
| BoE Interest Rate decision Live Coverage | (01/08/2009) Powered by: CoveritLive |
11:30 | FXstreet.com: Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's BoE Interest Rates Decision Live Coverage will start in 2 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Valeria Bednarik who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. She will be giving us a direct picture fo the market status. |
11:30 | FXstreet.com: Valeria Bednarik has been an active Forex trader for the last 3 years, specializing in the International Foreign Exchange Market. She also graduates in the Universidad Catolica del Salvador, in Argentina, as a Public Account, specializing in financials and cost managements. She currently manages an important clients portfolio for IFX Markets, Boston and is senior trader manager at Molfx-Management; besides she works training new traders with Trader College LLC specializing in technical analysis, for the English speaking community. |
11:32 | FXstreet.com: Welcome back Valeria! |
11:32 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi everybody! and welcome again to this Live Coverage |
11:33 | Valeria Bednarik: Today, we have Boe rates decision, widely anticipated to bea 0,50 basis points cut |
11:33 | FXstreet.com: Ahead of the rate decision the EUR/GBP has been sliding over 600pips to 0.9010. Also the GBP/JPY has been falling to below 140.00 level finding support at 137.27. Today the BoE is expected to cut its benchmark interest rates by 50 bps to 1.50%. This would be the lowest since the BoE was established in1694. A bold decision might lead the ECB to cut the benchmark interest rates next week. |
11:33 | Valeria Bednarik: sending rates to 1.50% the lowest level since the Central Bank was formed |
11:34 | FXstreet.com: What do you think, Valeria? |
11:34 | Valeria Bednarik: As the administration says, Gbp is falling against most majors, except dollar at the moment |
11:35 | Valeria Bednarik: ahead of rate decision. Greenback is in trouble after this week employment and Fomc announcements, so is something we could expect |
11:36 | FXstreet.com: Thanks, Valeria. I would also like to know what do you think BoE will do today, so vote the poll! |
| 11:36 | Will the BoE cut the bench mark interest rate? Yes, the BoE will cut it by 50bps to 1.50%. ( 47% ) ( 47% ) ( 0% ) ( 0% ) ( 7% ) |
11:37 | Valeria Bednarik: The Boe minutes,released 2 weeks ago, shown that the 100 points cut was not discarded, but was avoid to an excessive drop in the pound |
11:37 | Valeria Bednarik: so yes, i guess today we have big chances of a wider cut |
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11:39 | Valeria Bednarik: However, a 50 points cut could be priced in and show little reaction in market, as investors will be waiting for the Minutes to be released in two weeks. |
11:40 | Valeria Bednarik: menaing, a move in line with expectations maybe favor GBP more than we can expect |
11:42 | FXstreet.com: Just a quick remind about Valeria's task on FXstreet.com. She is the author of the advisor Blog. You can subscribe to her blog for an intraday market Live coverage. |
11:42 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
11:43 | FXstreet.com: Let's proceed now to answer some of the questions you have been sending from the beginning of this Live Coverage. |
11:43 | [Comment From Guest] Why are foreign exchange market required? What form do foreign exchange market take |
11:44 | Valeria Bednarik: in the short term the key points to consider will be 1.4980 and 1.5115. but remember! wait for some confirmation, and give 15 minutes to market to digest the new |
11:44 | [Comment From Dean] How long do you think it is generally best to wait after a big news release before taking a position? |
11:45 | Valeria Bednarik: If you have doubts about foreign market, please feel free to contact me to my private email after this Boe news! the administrator will publish it later! Tks! |
11:45 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Dean, at least two candles of 15 minutes is what i wait usually |
11:47 | [Comment From Nick] Hi Valeria, do you still see more pound strength against the dollar or do you think it has formed a medium term top at 1.5270 |
11:47 | Valeria Bednarik: But when talking about rates... I usually wait a bit more. in fact i hate those first swings.. |
11:47 | Valeria Bednarik: probably an hour or so |
11:48 | Valeria Bednarik: I was just saying about GBP in the blog that the poud drop nearly 6000 pips and only corrected 800 to the upside in monthy charts |
11:49 | Valeria Bednarik: so if we use just logic, well we could see some strengh in the pair to the upside, taking notice also that England is in better shape than the rest of the economies |
11:49 | Valeria Bednarik: to get out of this general recession |
11:49 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
11:50 | [Comment From vivek] what do you guys think about the eurgbp following the rate cuts |
11:50 | Valeria Bednarik: I see the currency in better shape than Euro or Dollar at the moment |
11:51 | Valeria Bednarik: Vivek EurGbp will react if the Pounds starts moving and Euro holds still |
11:51 | Valeria Bednarik: in this cases, I rather trade that pair, that has more interesting and wide movements, that Gbp usd itself |
11:52 | Valeria Bednarik: The pair is attemmting to break under the 0.9000 zone, let's see if can confirm under it. |
11:52 | Valeria Bednarik: However, rumors of england getting into the European Union are here! |
11:53 | Valeria Bednarik: Will that be a fact? and in taht case will Euro rise, or Gbp fall? nothing clear at the moment... but well, something we can consider |
11:53 | Valeria Bednarik: Weekly charts there announce further downside correction |
11:53 | [Comment From Dean] Do you think any break below or above those levels (1.4980 and 1.5115) will most likely be the best direction to take or are we likely to see rebounds? |
11:54 | Valeria Bednarik: Anyway, remember that any reaction we could see at the first or second spike here after the release, will become a firmer trend in a couple of days. Also American non Farm Payrolls tomorrow, could change it! |
11:55 | Valeria Bednarik: Dean those are zones that i expect to be broken to decide following intraday trend |
11:55 | Valeria Bednarik: zones! remember...not that the pair must move 1 or 2 pips above or under to take a trade |
11:55 | [Comment From Neil] Do you think rumours of the BOE making availble more notes will have some bearing on matters ?? |
11:56 | FXstreet.com: 4 minutes for the event to be released |
| 11:56 | Will the BoE cut the bench mark interest rate? Yes, the BoE will cut it by 50bps to 1.50%. ( 41% ) ( 47% ) ( 6% ) ( 6% ) ( 0% ) |
11:57 | Valeria Bednarik: Neil sorry, didn't hear those rumours. but will certainly do if real |
11:57 | [Comment From Kaden] Do you all think England will get into European Union? |
11:57 | Valeria Bednarik: Bigger charts, from 4 hours and on, are quite bullish in gbp/usd if you take a look. |
11:58 | Valeria Bednarik: Kaden i don't really... just a rumor i have bene reading around, probably what push Eur/Gbp close to 0.9800. |
11:58 | [Comment From Anindya.] Would the BOE announcement have any influence on US CAD pair... |
11:59 | Valeria Bednarik: good question Anindya! I found that when Japanese Yen moves on it's own, Cad is the mirror of Gbp, considering both pairs agaisnt USD dollar. Yes, follow the correlation there. |
12:00 | Valeria Bednarik: Time for the new! let's see |
12:00 | FXstreet.com: 50bps cut !!! |
12:01 | Valeria Bednarik: As expected! ok let's see the reaction |
12:01 | Valeria Bednarik: Gbp is falling at the moment, but nothing to take care off... first minutes is a hold and see |
12:03 | Valeria Bednarik: small range yet to decide, but ready to move higher |
12:03 | Valeria Bednarik: Let's see if the pair could continue above the 1.5115 with next target @ 1.5140 or so |
12:04 | Valeria Bednarik: the move in Gbp is dragging the rest of the majors, euro rise, not as much but along with GBP |
12:05 | Valeria Bednarik: the 1.5115 level has been tested in a first spike, but i don't see yet to much strenght or momentum in GBP |
12:06 | Valeria Bednarik: here we are! the pair above the 1.5115, let's see if now holds the downside, and with a new candle confirmation openning above it, we could see more reactions there |
12:06 | FXstreet.com: Let's continue answering some of the questions you've been sending. We are going to try to answer as many as possible. You can keep in touch with Valeria after the event in the Advisor Blog. |
12:07 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
12:07 | Valeria Bednarik: 1.5180 zone will be next resistance to consider, above it, probably we can see a retest of yestrday's max |
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12:07 | FXstreet.com: CMS General Research page |
12:07 | FXstreet.com: Daily video about the main market news |
12:07 | FXstreet.com: Expert Analysis of Today's Market |
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12:08 | [Comment From Blastak] For EUR/GBP, what levels have to be broken before trade? |
12:09 | Valeria Bednarik: the pair pass yesterday's minimum next support will be at 0.8920 and 0.8885 zone |
12:09 | FXstreet.com: You can read the official data in the BoE's homepage |
12:10 | Valeria Bednarik: the pair is breaking in 4 hours charts the 200 EMA and as I told you, remains over sold in bigger charts. final target today will be at 0.8850 zone |
12:11 | [Comment From Dean] What do you think the downside target on the EUR GBP would be? Seems to be heading for a 61.8% retracement to around the 0.8835 mark maybe? |
12:11 | Valeria Bednarik: While GBP continues up, Euro is coming down.. no strenght there see todays post about Euro |
12:11 | Valeria Bednarik: Dean! more or less what I] have just say yes! |
12:12 | Valeria Bednarik: Back to gbp/Usd, the pair reached the 1.5180 zone, and come back let's see if in a new impulse the pair regaisn strenght to break above it. |
12:13 | Valeria Bednarik: @ 1.5200, I have the 14.6% of the monthy fall of the pair, |
12:13 | Valeria Bednarik: So i believe that if this week closes above that value, the pair will start a longer term upleg |
12:13 | [Comment From Guest] A rate cut and GBP is gaining, WHY? |
12:15 | Valeria Bednarik: See, that's why I rather follow technicals than fundamentals: told you before 4 hours chart point in that direction. And if you want a fundamental explanation, well these days, rate cuts are exactly the contrary they use to be a couple of years ago: |
12:15 | Valeria Bednarik: a rate cut today means a messure to improve the economic situation of the country |
12:16 | Valeria Bednarik: We could be especulators, but finally, currencies don't move for us, but for the global economy... see the point? |
12:17 | Valeria Bednarik: If Gbp breaks above previous max will continue to the upside |
12:17 | [Comment From andy] where do you see gbp/jpy goin after the news |
12:17 | Valeria Bednarik: Meanwhile Eur/Gbp is aproaching to our target zone more quickly than what I expect |
12:18 | Valeria Bednarik: 140.40 will be the first target from here let me see the chart |
12:18 | Valeria Bednarik: And daily charts are about to give bullish signals of continuation |
12:19 | Valeria Bednarik: Above 141.20/60 we could see a good upside rally there! |
12:19 | Valeria Bednarik: If the pair closes today in positive territory |
12:21 | Valeria Bednarik: Meanwhile Gbp/Usd is fighting the 1.5200 level. if confirm next target will be yesterday's max remember! |
12:22 | [Comment From vivek] so now that the gbp has crossed its previous mark, will it continue to rally upwards or will there be a temporary fall in the next few days to week? |
12:22 | Valeria Bednarik: Vivek, not really confirm. To tell you what will happen tomorrow, or next week, I rather wait and see where the pair close the day. |
12:23 | Valeria Bednarik: If closes above yesterday's max, chances to the upside remain strong If under 1.5200, no that much. |
12:23 | Valeria Bednarik: Yet don't forget we expect an awful Non Farm Payroll for tomorrow in the U.S. |
12:24 | Valeria Bednarik: And that will certainly affect GBP more than Euro, at least for me |
12:24 | [Comment From Samir] major resistamce @ 5190 zone |
12:25 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes Samir, I talk about zones, not exact points, that's around my 1.5200 yet see, the pair is ready to reach yesterday's high right now. |
12:25 | Valeria Bednarik: The resistance has not yet been confirm broken, but is underway no doubts. |
12:26 | [Comment From vivek] hmm..but looking at the daily charts, it seems that the gbp has already touched its lowest...almost twice...i see...so 1.52 is the next target...but i thought yesterdays max was 1.52770 |
12:27 | Valeria Bednarik: Vivek, yes yesterday's max was 1.5278 , and there is where tue pair is adressing. yes I can see a couple of figures iin daily charts that shown Gbp has probably find the bottom. |
12:28 | Valeria Bednarik: As commented at the beginning of this Coverage, the pair fall more than 6000 pips, and corrected just 800. Is loghical to expect more oupside movements |
12:28 | Valeria Bednarik: I will be posting longer term perspectives in the blog, later on |
12:28 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
12:29 | Valeria Bednarik: Close to break yesterday's max, next target will be 5335 a daily descendant trend line! |
12:30 | FXstreet.com: We are short of time, so let's answer the last question. You can continue reading Valeria's comments in the blog. |
12:30 | [Comment From Neil] Looks like we might be heading for the 1.5280 on the GBP/USD ?? |
12:30 | Valeria Bednarik: if that zone is reached quicckly, we have chances of seeing a short term rebound there. If the pair stays close and continues pushing higher, and braks above the line, expect longer term upside moves |
12:31 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes we are Neil. although small charts are a bit exhausted at the moment. !5220 more or less should hold, to see the pair continue |
12:33 | Valeria Bednarik: Ok! time to end this live coverage, a pitty we don't have more time. At this moment, majors are moving following GBP strenght but the rest of them are more limited than Pound |
12:34 | Valeria Bednarik: The cut was as expected, and be sure, BoE is trying to avoid further dops, so we could be at the beginning of a major correction in all Pound pairs, after the last months huge falls |
12:35 | Valeria Bednarik: I will be publishing resumes and longer term analysis in my blog today and tomorrow! It has been a pleasure to see you all here! |
12:36 | Valeria Bednarik: For those asking for private contacts, feel free to make a comment at the blog, and I will publish there both my msn and e amil adress! See you soon! Bye |
12:37 | FXstreet.com: Thank you very much Valeria for your time and your expert advice today. All the viewers must know that they can follow your intraday posts in your blog: |
12:38 | FXstreet.com: It's time to conclude this Live Coverage today. I will be looking forward to meeting you all tomorrow in the Non-Farm Payrolls Live Coverage. |
12:38 | FXstreet.com: http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/ |
12:39 | FXstreet.com: I would like to specially thank CMS Forex, today’s sponsor, for their support. Use these links to follow up about today’s main market news. Open a live account with CMS with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now. |
12:40 | FXstreet.com: Special thanks to Valeria who will met us again next Thursday in the ECB Live Coverage. |
12:40 | FXstreet.com: And many thanks for your time! |
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