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Central Bank Review

Expert: Adam Rosen, CEO and Co-Founder at 4xLounge
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:

An in-depth look at recent central bank decisions and their impact to the currencies we follow.

Live Coverage: Fed Interest Rate Decision

Fed Interest Rates Decision Live Coverage with Nick Nasad

(01/28/2009)  Powered by: CoveritLive

  

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6:48

FXstreet.com:   Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's Fed Interest Rates Decision Live Coverage will start in 5 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Nick Nasad who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. He will be giving us a direct picture for the market status.

6:48

FXstreet.com:  Nick Nasad is a currency market analyst with CMS Forex for the last 3 years. He closely monitors fundamental releases and reports their results and provides commentary to the company's clients through CMS Forex's interactive economic calendar Forex Capsule and through daily Forex market video recaps. He has also written extensive educational material on using technical analysis in trading Forex.

6:49	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Hello everyone

6:49	FXstreet.com:  Hello, Nick and welcome back! How are you?

6:49	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I'm doing good, hope everyone is having a good morning/day/evening

6:49	FXstreet.com:  I would like to thank you very much for your time today and for sharing your market view with all FXstreet.com user's today!

6:49

FXstreet.com:  I am pelased to announce you that today’s sponsor is CMS Forex. CMS Forex has some of the most competitive Forex trading terms on the market today! Unlike many Forex brokers, CMS Forex allows you to trade both mini (10,000) and standard (100,000) lots under a single account. Open a live account with CMS Forex with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now. CMS Forex also produces expert analysis, market research and daily market news coverage with videos and reports. Browse the following URLs to learn and take profit from their expertise.

6:50	FXstreet.com:  Daily video about the main market news

6:50	FXstreet.com:  Expert Analysis of Today's Market

6:50	FXstreet.com:  CMS General Research page

6:51	FXstreet.com:  Well Nick, let's go inside today's topic, the Fed's Interest Rates announcement... I think you prepared something very special for our viewers today...

6:51	Nick Nasad - CMS:  i would also like to point you to our dynamic economic calendar teh Forex Capsule: http://www.cmsfx.com/en/forex-resources/market-analysis/forex-capsule/

6:52	Nick Nasad - CMS:  yes, I have created a special video that should give you guys an idea of what to expect going into today's annoucnement and a look at some key currency pairs

6:52	FXstreet.com:  So just click on the following URL or copy and paste it right to your browser: http://www.cmsfx.com/en/forex-resources/video-news-and-analysis/daily-recap/01-28-09-fomc/

6:53

Nick Nasad - CMS:   Once you watch the video we prepared for you, you should have an idea going into this meeting that today’s decision is going to be different from what we are accustomed to as the interest rate in the US is now near zero, and traders will instead be looking at the statement for clarification of how the Fed will proceed in order to prop up the financial markets and how they will go about trying to increase liquidity through “credit easing.”

6:54	Nick Nasad - CMS:  therefore the reaction today may be mroe nuanced than a simpler, did the Fed cut rates or held.. we go more from a multiple choice kind of answer to more of an essay question

6:55	Nick Nasad - CMS:  ok, not sure if people were able to see my previous comment.. i wnat to repaste it.

6:55

Nick Nasad - CMS:  If you watched the video we prepared for you, you should have an idea going into this meeting that today’s decision is going to be different from what we are accustomed to as the interest rate in the US is now near zero, and traders will instead be looking at the statement for clarification of how the Fed will proceed in order to prop up the financial markets and how they will go about trying to increase liquidity through “credit easing.”

6:56	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Today, the markets are responding to other news and factors. The USD/JPY climbed on an increase in US stocks due to reports that the Obama administration may be setting up a “bad bank” with which they will buy up bad assets.

6:56

Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Pound continued gaining for a third session, as fears over the size of a bank bailout eased this week, and today George Soros said he is not selling the Pound below 1.40. The Loonie saw a strong gain as risk appetite returned to markets this week, and the demand for the US as a safe haven decreased. Lastly, the Euro, is higher today, but was unable to breach its high from yesterday around 1.3330. This is a level of support turned resistance from around January 6th.

6:57	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Right now, we are not seeing too much movement in the 15 mintues prior to the announcement, the the USD/JPY is moved higher and hit a new intra-day high just now..

6:57	Nick Nasad - CMS:  so, while we wait, let me take any questions you may have

6:58	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Asif, if you are interested in learning to trade Forex, i would suggest taking our Webinar course, there is actually a webinar going on right now, but you can watch previous sessions from our webinar page:

6:58	Nick Nasad - CMS:  http://www.cmsfx.com/en/forex-education/forex-webinars/

6:59	[Comment From Asif] should i sell USD/JPY now?

6:59	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Any trades you do should be based in some kind of trading plan, so you have to certain parameters you are looking for to initiate a trade..

7:00	Nick Nasad - CMS:  currently the USD/JPY is seeing Dollar strength as a result of higher US equities, so unless you feel todays gains were overdone, or we are hitting resistance at the 90 level, I would say that selling the pair on a hunch of whim is not a good idea

7:00	[Comment From peter] hi do you think this will be the last interest rate cut or they are over last time

7:01	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The last meeting, we saw rates go down to near zero.. so there isnt any room to go lower. so today we will see the Fed saying something along the lines of "we wil keep rates at this extremely low level for an extended period of time"

7:01	FXstreet.com:  After watching the video that Nick prepared, now is your turn to send your opinion... Vote the poll!

7:01	Will the FOMC keep the benchmark rates? Yes, the FOMC will hold the ongoing rates  ( 85% ) No, they will hike it 25bps to 0.50%  ( 12% ) No, they will hike it by 50bps to 0.75%.  ( 4% ) No. They wiill hike it by 75bps to 1.00%  ( 0% )

7:02	[Comment From Stefan Stoychev] What do you think are the chances to see a down movement in EUR/ USD even if FED makes the interest 0.00

7:02

FXstreet.com:  For all those that have just now joined our Live coverage, Nick Nasad prepared a special video that should give you an idea of what to expect going into today's annoucnement and a look at some key currency pairs. So just click on the following URL or copy and paste it right to your browser: http://www.cmsfx.com/en/forex-resources/video-news-and-analysis/daily-recap/01-28-09-fomc/

7:02	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I think the 1.3330 level is a pretty important level, considering the fall we have seen in January in the EUR/USD pair

7:03	Nick Nasad - CMS:  it corresponds to a level of support-turned resistance,

7:03	Nick Nasad - CMS:  in today's trading we were unable to breach that resistance, so tehre may be a retracement before we Euro bulls try again

7:04	[Comment From Kyriakidis Isaak] does eur/usd will go higher for today after decision of 0,25%?

7:04	[Comment From Charlie] what type of reaction do you expect from EUR/USD if everything goes as expected with the rate decision? More risk appetite and a break of 1.3330

7:05	Nick Nasad - CMS:  i think these two questions are similar, and if the FOMC annoucnement does not produce any surprises a break of 1.3330 may be the case..

7:05	Nick Nasad - CMS:  however, it may not come immediatly, with such volatility that we are used to following the FOMC announcement.

7:06	[Comment From hussam] is the level 90.00 good resistant for USD/JPY ?

7:06	Nick Nasad - CMS:  it could be, but i feel that if global stocks follow the lead of us equities, it may not hold

7:07	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we had talk earlier this week that the Bank of japan was ready to intervene in the markets if the Yen strengthened to the 87 level, which we can say is going to be a very strong level of support.

7:07	Nick Nasad - CMS:  from a resstance side, 91.20 is the clearest visual resistance

7:07	[Comment From Gary] Do you think that if the Fed doesn't talk about buying treasuries, we'll simply see the equities and the majors sell off within their recent ranges?

7:08	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I think we have had some pretty strong moves this week in terms of risk appetite, following last week's rather panicky risk aversion

7:09	Nick Nasad - CMS:  so, even the EUR/USD as it looks currently, seems primed for a dip..

7:09	Nick Nasad - CMS:  that would correlate with the strength we are seeing in the USD/JPY

7:09

FXstreet.com:  For those that have just now joined our Live coverage, Nick Nasad prepared a special video that should give you an idea of what to expect going into today's annoucnement and a look at some key currency pairs. So just click on the following URL or copy and paste it right to your browser: http://www.cmsfx.com/en/forex-resources/video-news-and-analysis/daily-recap/01-28-09-fomc/

7:10	[Comment From Guest] What needs to happen for Eur/USD to drop with respect to FOMC announcemnt?

7:11	Nick Nasad - CMS:  one issue that can have a Dollar negative impact is a strong announcement that the bank will use its balance sheets to shore up credit marekts. By using such a method to increase money supply, it can hurt the value of the Dollar.

7:12	FXstreet.com:  Well, thanks for voting the poll... We have prepared a second one for you to vote today, we would like also hear your opinion about currency pairs... Vote the poll!

7:12	Nick Nasad - CMS:  but then again, we already had that in the last statement.,

7:12	Which pair will be the most volatile after the Fed Decision? EURUSD  ( 56% ) GBPUSD  ( 31% ) USDJPY  ( 9% ) USDCHF  ( 3% )

7:12	[Comment From Charlie] Are there any indications that the fed will increase the rate? This seems highly unlikely. If they do, what are you looking for on the dollar pairs?

7:12	FXstreet.com:  3 minutes for the event to be released!

7:12	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Yeah, there is no chance of that happening.

7:12	[Comment From Stefan Stoychev] So if usd/jpy breaks above 90.00 where do u think is the first resistance level?

7:13	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the first clear level is 91.20

7:14	[Comment From GoodBoy] will direction will EUR/USD as result of holding i-rate

7:14

FXstreet.com:  Lat chance to watch the Video that Nick prepared... that should give you an idea of what to expect going into today's annoucnement and a look at some key currency pairs. So just click on the following URL or copy and paste it right to your browser: http://www.cmsfx.com/en/forex-resources/video-news-and-analysis/daily-recap/01-28-09-fomc/

7:14	FXstreet.com:  CMS Forex, today’s Sponsor also produces expert analysis, market research and daily market news coverage with videos and reports. Browse the following URLs to learn and take profit from their expertise.

7:14	FXstreet.com:  CMS General Research page

7:14

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7:15	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Goodboy, the reaction will be nuanced as depend on what the Fed puts into its statement.. A hold is what the market is expecting..

7:15	FXstreet.com:  1 min to go!!!

7:15	FXstreet.com:  Here is the news: NO CHANGES

7:15	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The EUR/USD is climbing higher prior to the release, as is the Pound (vs US)

7:16	FXstreet.com:  Nick, the Fed confirmed the 0.25 rates will keep the same. Any comments?

7:16	Nick Nasad - CMS:  thats of course as expected, im reading the release now.. http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20090128a.htm

7:17	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the Fed mentions that the economy has weakened since its last meeting

7:17	Nick Nasad - CMS:  "Conditions in some financial markets have improved, in part reflecting government efforts to provide liquidity and strengthen financial institutions; nevertheless, credit conditions for households and firms remain extremely tight. "

7:17

Nick Nasad - CMS:  "The Federal Reserve continues to purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand the quantity of such purchases and the duration of the purchase program as conditions warrant. "

7:18	Nick Nasad - CMS:  " The Committee also is prepared to purchase longer-term Treasury securities if evolving circumstances indicate that such transactions would be particularly effective in improving conditions in private credit markets. "

7:18	Nick Nasad - CMS:  just some highlights from the release

7:18	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the EUR/USD is responding with a knee-jerk Dollar strength

7:19	Nick Nasad - CMS:  as well as the USD/JPY

7:19	[Comment From Charlie] not much volatility here. May take a while for the markets to digest the information.

7:19	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I think you are correct, the fact that they mentioned Treasuries could be a surprise, but for the most part the Fed's statement is close to expectations.

7:20	Nick Nasad - CMS:  US equities are jumping higher

7:21

Nick Nasad - CMS:  as teh Fed has said all teh right things, they are buying up corporate debt and mortgage-backed securites, they stand ready to buy Treasuries which shoudl keep yields low and help mortgage rates adn the housing sector, and are ready to extend credit to households and small businesses

7:22	[Comment From Guest] knee jerk strength? Are you saying eur/usd should be on the rise?

7:22	Nick Nasad - CMS:  no not nessarily, i mean its the first reaction of traders, and we are seeing fololow through

7:23	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I think risk appetite is fueling a bit the Dollar strength, which seems sort of paradoxal in terms of the EUR/USD, but from teh way price action was behaving the last two sessiong, the EUR/USD looked ready for a dip.

7:25	[Comment From Pablo] Do you wil take a position?

7:25	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Pablo, I was long USD/JPY lsat wednesday, following the drop to 87

7:26	[Comment From yen] The EUR/ USD looks mixed..any thoughts..nick?

7:27	Nick Nasad - CMS:  my thoughts here is that the EUR/USD was most likely overbought this week, and teh Fed is pulling out all the stops to try and get teh economy going again..

7:27	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The ECB on the other hand, does not want to use extra measures but will be cutting rates still going forward

7:27	Nick Nasad - CMS:  right now, the EUR/USD is testing its support from yesterday's low

7:28	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we are again conforming to the medium term trend which is down in this pair

7:28	[Comment From Guest] The outcome of the speech is basically positive or negative on the dollar?

7:29	Nick Nasad - CMS:  from the look of the market reaction, we are seeing Dollar strength, so sometimes you let price action (which is a consencus of investors and traders) tell you..

7:29	[Comment From Peter] but, is this reaction going to last?

7:30	Nick Nasad - CMS:  it depends on which pair.. for EUR/USD, I think the fact that our resistance at 1.3330 held so strongly, and is making this retracement means we may see followthrough to today's action.. The GBP/USD and others like the NZD/USD are starting to show Dollar strength now

7:31	[Comment From Asif] whta do u think whre Eur/usd should buy now?Please

7:31	Nick Nasad - CMS:  i think you are in a classic case of trying to catch a falling knife..

7:31	Nick Nasad - CMS:  its better to see some kind of retracement of this fall then a retest to enter the market on the long side..

7:31	[Comment From Peter] and for USD/JPY? you were expecting a drop until 87?

7:32	Nick Nasad - CMS:  no, not at all Peter, I was just laying out a long term support level, in teh context of a question regarding what is resistance..

7:32	Nick Nasad - CMS:  for that pair

7:33	[Comment From Larry] To my mind the whole yen strength story has gone way too far . The Japanese economy is in such bad shape With so many longs of yen out there, there could be a huge clear out on a good move in equities GBP YEN could easily move another 10 big figures up

7:34	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Larry that is pretty good analysis, considering we hit some very low levels for the Pound recently, an all time low vs the Yen and a 23-year low vs the Dollar.,

7:35	Nick Nasad - CMS:  however as you know, the GBP/JPy especially is a creature of risk sentiment and carry trade., and as long as the global economy is showing very weak growth and more companies post declines, we will continue to see risk aversion creeping up and supporting the Yen

7:36	Nick Nasad - CMS:  looking at the long term picture, since July, we've dropped nearly 10,000 pips... without too much in the way of a major long term retracement..

7:37	[Comment From Kaden] Hi nick, what do you think about the mid-term trend for GBP/USD pair?

7:38	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Pound as we mentioned hit a low near 1.35 recently, and has seen a rather strong bounce up from that level.. we pretty much made a 61.8% retracement from the fall in mid January

7:38	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I think teh more pessimistic concerns about the UK banking industry have sort of been eased, and that is a reason for the rebound..

7:39	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I dont know that the pair will see a further move up before retraceing some of this upmove, but if equities hold up around the globe the next several sessions, the Pound should be a beneficiary

7:40	[Comment From yen] hi nick, you mention earlier u looking at EUR/USD on the down, do you have a level that ur looking at?

7:41	Nick Nasad - CMS:  im a big fan of fibonacci level, and measuring the recent uptrend from january 23rd to Jan 27th, a few key levels would be teh 50% retracement at 1.3040 and the 61.8% retracement around 1.30

7:42	[Comment From Paul] Nick, how much do you think the Fed decision should affect commodities and USD/CAD as well? What are your thoughts on the pair's mid-term trend?

7:42	Nick Nasad - CMS:  ok, so the EUR/USD has found support at 1.31

7:43	Nick Nasad - CMS:  which was the 38.2% retracement..

7:44	Nick Nasad - CMS:  that is most likely profit taking now from those that sold in the aftermath of the release..

7:44	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the USD/JPY is also retreating..

7:44	[Comment From Pablo] Thanks NIck, I'm in GBPUSD sell at 1.4280, do you expected more down bias

7:45	Nick Nasad - CMS:  in the short term, we could see fruther down bias, as on my momentum indicators the pair looked a bit overbough prior to the annoucnement

7:46	Nick Nasad - CMS:  though right now we seem to have lost some of the liquidity and volatility we were seeing..

7:46	[Comment From fred] soon the rate decision comes up for the kiwi.. Time for a quik short?

7:47	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the NZD/USD was a pretty high level prior to teh FOMC announcement, but has dropped in faovr of the Dollar already, so you might be slightly late there... but I think the bank has the chance of cutting rates further than the expectations fo a 100 basis point cut

7:48	Nick Nasad - CMS:  also now, attention turns to Friday's GDP release

7:48	Nick Nasad - CMS:  so, traders that sold the Dollar earlier in the week may be squaring their positions in anticpation of that release..

7:49	[Comment From Guest] So do you think it will retrace back to the 1.32 level at least?

7:49	Nick Nasad - CMS:  its hard to tell, we may have had a slight pause before we fall further down, though like i just mentioned the liquidity in the markets has sort of faded now 30 mintues after the FOMC decision

7:51	Nick Nasad - CMS:  ok, everyone, my time here is wrapping up, ill try and answer another question or two,..

7:51	[Comment From claire] your thoughts on usd/cad,please

7:51

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7:51	Nick Nasad - CMS:  This pair has been pretty interesting as we had a very strong run-up of the Dollar between Jan8th and Jan 21st, and now we have retraced 76.4% of that climb..

7:52	Nick Nasad - CMS:  oil was up today, and is hovering near the $43 level..

7:52	Nick Nasad - CMS:  so the CAD will go where risk sentiment goes.

7:53	[Comment From Hussein] liquidity is gone.. I close my poisition

7:54	Nick Nasad - CMS:  i think youre right about that

7:54	Nick Nasad - CMS:  and with that, I must conclude our live coverage

7:55	FXstreet.com:  Thanks Nick, time for wrapping up, any final advise or conclussion, Nick?

7:56	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I think teh implications of the Fed policy will become more clear going forward, but the fact that the Fed is ready to buy Treasuries will surely impact financial markets going forward

7:56	Nick Nasad - CMS:  and may be something read up on..

7:57	Nick Nasad - CMS:  hope everyone found my analysis helpful, and I will be back on Friday to cover the US GDP release, which is not gonna be pretty to say the least..

7:57	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I wish everyone good success trading, and see you next time.

7:58	FXstreet.com:  Many thanks Nick, I will be looking forward to view your video report today... At what time it will be released, Nick? You will speak about the FED of course!

7:58	FXstreet.com:  Daily video about the main market news

7:58	Nick Nasad - CMS:  yes, due to the live coverage it may be slightly delayed, but usually we put them out by 5 PM EST..

7:59	Nick Nasad - CMS:  let me provide teh RSS link

7:59	Nick Nasad - CMS:  http://www.cmsfx.com/rss/daily-videos.xml

7:59	Nick Nasad - CMS:  so you can get our videos daily without having to go to our site..

7:59	FXstreet.com:  I am already subscribed so I hope all of you gathered here today will!

8:00	FXstreet.com:  Well, Nick, many thanks for your participation in this Live Coverage today!

8:00	FXstreet.com:  I would like to specially thank CMS Forex, today’s sponsor, for their support. Use these links to follow up about today’s main market news. Open a live account with CMS with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now.

8:00	FXstreet.com:  CMS General Research page

8:00	Nick Nasad - CMS:  thank you for having me, goodbye everyone

8:01	FXstreet.com:  Thanks to all our viewers and friends gathered here today to follow this Live Coverage... Last Minute News:

8:01	FXstreet.com:  RBNZ cut to 3.50

8:02	FXstreet.com:  Keep informed on FXstreet.com, stay tunned to our News, Economic Calendar and Currencies at a Glance sections!

8:02	FXstreet.com:  Thank you, see you soon!

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Expert: Phil Newton, Developer of Trading Strategies at Trading Strategies.info
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:

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ECB Live Coverage

ECB Interest Rates decission Live Coverage

(01/15/2009)  Powered by: CoveritLive

  

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12:13

FXstreet.com:  Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's BoE Interest Rates Decision Live Coverage will start in 2 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Valeria Bednarik who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. She will be giving us a direct picture fo the market status.

12:14

FXstreet.com:  Valeria Bednarik has been an active Forex trader for the last 3 years, specializing in the International Foreign Exchange Market. She also graduates in the Universidad Catolica del Salvador, in Argentina, as a Public Account, specializing in financials and cost managements. She currently manages an important clients portfolio for IFX Markets, Boston and is senior trader manager at Molfx-Management; besides she works training new traders with Trader College LLC specializing in technical analysis, for the English speaking community.

12:16

FXstreet.com:  Hi Valeria, Thanks for meeting us today!

12:17

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi everybody! welcome to this live ECB's coverage! is a pleasure to be here with you today, again

12:17

FXstreet.com:  Today the ECB is widely expected to cut the ongoing interest rates by 50bps to 2.00%.The EUR/USD found a support level at 1.3090 yesterday. Currently the pair is moving sideways above 1.3100 level, in a narrow range of 100 pips. It is important to determine how the ECB considers the current economic situation. A hawkish view would boost up the EUR/USD towards 1.3500 level, on the hand, a dovish view would drag the pair down below 1.3000 level. Trichet speech is scheduled at 13:30GMT. What do you think Valeria?

12:17

Valeria Bednarik:  Today, we are expecting ECB to cut rates..as the administrator is posting.

12:18

Valeria Bednarik:  I believe the cut is already priced in in Euro price, at least if they stay into the 0.50 basis point

12:19

Valeria Bednarik:   Better chances to see market react to Mr Trichet words, as the hawkish or dovish perspective, will decide the Euro destiny. Right now I wonder what can we call a hawkish speach,

12:21

Valeria Bednarik:  The economic slowdown is worsening in Europe, Standar & Poor's is hitting bank qualifications day after day (italy, Greece, Spain), so what can he say, to turn thing from here?

12:22

Valeria Bednarik:  Anyway, we can especulate about it, yet the true will be here in an hour or so. From a technical perspective, the key points to consider, in one way or the other, are 1.3090 to the downside, 1.3260 to the upside

12:22

Valeria Bednarik:  A clear break of any of them, will probably define the rest of the day trend for the pair

12:24

Valeria Bednarik:  By this time, dollar continues to push higher across the board, seems market players are betting on a dovish speach.

12:25

Valeria Bednarik:  Let's also remember, inflation is slowing down in the Euro zone (finally taking notice that oil has come form 150 to 35 dollars a barrel)

12:26

FXstreet.com:  Thank you very much Valeria for sharing your approach with us

12:26

Valeria Bednarik:  that makes cutting rates easier

12:26

FXstreet.com:  I would like to hear now what our viewers think... Vote the poll!!!

12:26

Will the ECB low the bench mark interest rate? Yes, the ECB will cut it by 25bps  ( 5% ) Yes, the ECB will cut it by 50bps  ( 68% ) Yes, on an aggressive cut it by moe than 75bps.  ( 24% ) No, the ECB will rather hold the ongoing rate.  ( 0% ) No, the ECB will rather hike it by 25bps  ( 2% )

12:27

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12:27

FXstreet.com:  CMS General Research page

12:27

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12:27

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12:27

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12:28

FXstreet.com:  Valeria Bednarik will be back woth us to answer your questions in just a couple of minutes, in the meantime I would like to remind all of you that Valeria is one of our bloggers and the author of The Advisor Blog

12:28

FXstreet.com:  The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

12:29

FXstreet.com:  For all the Spanish viewers and for all those who would like to meet Valeria and travel to Spain, I am glad to announce you that Valeria Bednarik is preparing a course in Valencia for the next month.

12:29

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12:30

FXstreet.com:  Val, what could you explain us about the course?

12:30

Valeria Bednarik:  From a technical perspective, the pair Eur/Usd is set to fall in the longer term

12:31

Valeria Bednarik:  Ok to the course sorry! the course is a complete technical education one

12:31

Valeria Bednarik:  the idea is explain all the tools we have avaiable for trading, help participants to design and use trading systems, and complete it with an on line tutorial after that live week

12:32

Valeria Bednarik:  we will cover all: undertood fundamentals, money management, risk control, not just technical analysis, although as you know, I'ma technical trader, so that will be the center of it

12:34

Valeria Bednarik:  Sorry! lost conexion for a sec! Back to Euro enough course!

12:34

FXstreet.com:  thanks Valeria, we have some quetions from our viewers, let's answer as many as possible

12:35

FXstreet.com:  If your question is not answered during the Live Coverage, you can contact Valeria on her blog

12:35

FXstreet.com:  The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

12:36

[Comment From Guest] waht is the chance of a 1pp cut

12:36

Valeria Bednarik:   Take a look at the bigger charts i have been posting in my blog: december huge movements, have been exactly the 61.8% correction form 1.60 to 1.23 and by this time, remains also under the 38.2% around 1.3740. Chances of a downside continuation in the medium term remains high

12:36

Valeria Bednarik:  I don't expect such a large rate cut today

12:38

Valeria Bednarik:  BeHowever if they do, Euro could quicky fell apart agaisnt most rivals

12:39

Valeria Bednarik:  a good chance to trade Euro gbp, or Eur/Jpy as those pairs will give larger rallies in that case

12:40

[Comment From gcfx] Eur/usd is going down 1.2880

12:40

[Comment From gcfx] technical will act

12:40

FXstreet.com:  For all of you that have asked about the time for the released, the data will be announced in 5 minutes: 12:45 GMT

12:40

[Comment From Guest] Why do you say the long term pair is bearish?

12:40

Valeria Bednarik:  No doubts about that, my friend.

12:41

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12:41

Valeria Bednarik:  I guess i explain that in previous answer... also you can see the pair break under a huge ascendnat monthly line, complete the pullback, at 1.4700 zone and come back from there to actual levels

12:43

[Comment From Gregy3d] Do you think that EUR/JPY at 110 is reality this week? In case of 0,75 rate cut, of course.

12:45

Valeria Bednarik:  Yes Greg, a bigger cut and Japanese Yen strength will certainly take the pair to the downside. not dare to say 110, but probably an interesting fall in there fist to 114.00 zone, important minimum in daily charts.Under that, a test of 110 is likely

12:45

FXstreet.com:  As expected, the ECB cut rates by 0,50 bps

12:45

Valeria Bednarik:  time for the news!

12:46

FXstreet.com:  Valeria, this is going to give a breath to the Eurozone Economy, don't you think so?

12:46

Valeria Bednarik:  ok no surprises in the number, the cut was as expected. Let's see if the pair chose a direction with this data or waits for Trichet's speach

12:47

Valeria Bednarik:  I believe yes, some relief to common people pockets, yes

12:48

Valeria Bednarik:  Mortgage is the root of this global crisis... begining in the U.S yet extendend all across the world. A smaller rate means smaller payments, and more money, more consumer movements

12:49

Valeria Bednarik:  the kick start for growth

12:49

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12:50

Valeria Bednarik:  No much market reaction at the moment, market is waiting for Trichet!

12:50

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12:50

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12:50

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12:51

Valeria Bednarik:   Finally some reaction let's see if the pair manages to break under yesterday's low, 1.3090

12:52

FXstreet.com:  Let's continue answering some of the questions we are receiving today. Please, keep on sendng them to Valeria. We will stay live from FXstreet.com covering Trichet's speech too

12:52

[Comment From Piotr] cut is too small for braeth , dont You think so ?

12:52

Valeria Bednarik:  theat willbring more selling pressure to the pair. Also if you take a look at Swiss Franc, the pair is ready to break to the upside, oonce it pass the congestion zone between 1.1240/70

12:53

Valeria Bednarik:  Is better than nothing actual rates are low enough and leave some room for more if necesary

12:55

Valeria Bednarik:  here we are! both pairs are attemtimg to break! if next 15 minutes candle confirms the movement we could see good rallies triggered al across the board

12:56

[Comment From SWEIS] DO YOU TINK IT WILL REVERSE BACK UP TODAY TO 1.32400?

12:56

[Comment From Paul Giggs] do you expect euro to rebound in the coming minutes?

12:56

Valeria Bednarik:  Gbp by the way, is moving quite slowly and as said before, Eur Gbp and Eur/Jpy are giving interesting movements

12:57

Valeria Bednarik:  sweis, will depend on trichet speach.. however the pair remains pushing to the downside, If confirms under 1,3080 no much chances of such come back

12:58

Valeria Bednarik:  Paul, not in the coming minutes no.

12:59

Valeria Bednarik:   movements will continue choppy but seems that pushing to the downside

12:59

[Comment From Engin] what you mean with "confirm" of under 1,3080?

12:59

[Comment From Tauseef] at what level you suggest of buying usd/chf?

1:00	Valeria Bednarik:  menaing to wait for a candle openning or so. at least 15 mnutes after the new is realised.

1:01	Valeria Bednarik:   Tauseef, from actual price, the pair could come back to the 1.1240 zone... and should hold there to remain bullish. Above 1.1280, probable run to 1.1320

1:02	Valeria Bednarik:  as fisrt target zone, and adressing to 1.15 zone

1:03	Valeria Bednarik:  We have some conexion delay, sorry for the inconvinience

1:05	Valeria Bednarik:  The pair is fighting around 1.3100, and Swiss with the 1.1270 zone, yet they remain close enough to suggest a continuation form here.

1:06	[Comment From Shen] what's your target if eur under 1.3080?

1:07	Valeria Bednarik:  Well close to 1.3000 zone,

1:07	Valeria Bednarik:  if 1.30 gives up, tight your seat belts!

1:08	[Comment From Steve] What do you think Trichet's bias will be? More concerned about a liquidity trap or accepting of greater recessionary pressures?

1:09	Valeria Bednarik:  I wish I could understand him a bit more.. last year, while the world was falling apart, he insisted on a hawkish vias

1:09	Valeria Bednarik:  finally nobody take him seriously.

1:10	Valeria Bednarik:  Is not just what he is going to say, is more on how market will undertand it. any aproach to recessionary pressures, will be highly dovish understood

1:10	Valeria Bednarik:   As I said earlier, I me, myself, and just me, can't see room for hawkish comments

1:11	[Comment From Guest] what is trichet expected to say that could impact eur/usd?

1:11	Valeria Bednarik:  Would any of you believe it, if he says something like We are doing fine? We are coming out?

1:13	Valeria Bednarik:   He is expect to be worried about recession and economic slowdown, and not about inflation. Inflation has been the excuse to push rates higher. Now with low inflations levels, there are no chances of going that way

1:13	[Comment From Guest] what now eur fall under 80

1:13	Valeria Bednarik:  15 minutes to the beginning of the speach! Anyway, rememeber.. usually market will jump on each sentence

1:14	[Comment From Guest] What is the outlook for the next Fed meeting?

1:14	Valeria Bednarik:  he says, so won't be time to enter the market

1:15	Valeria Bednarik:  Yes Euro is going down, but if you ask me, I will tell you to stay away. World won't end today.. not even trading

1:17

Valeria Bednarik:  I have not read much about Fed's next meeting yet, but think of this: Obama will be the president finally. Will he do all he is saying? or wil they finally bring rates directly yo 0.00% as rumours we are hearing? well if they finally decide to use other tools than rates, That could be dollar positive.

1:17	Valeria Bednarik:  Sendin rates directly to 0.00% won't make a difference. Besides is clear they won't rise rates for a good number of months

1:18	[Comment From Blackforext] where do you see the support coming in on the downside. what are we looking for in the press conf to get the currency to really move

1:18	FXstreet.com:  Trichet's Speech will start in about 10 min (13:30 GMT and will finnish at 14:00 GMT)

1:19	Valeria Bednarik:   The pair is right now in the first suppor zone suggested, 1.3090, still not confirming a break under, and probably waiting at this time, for Trichet speach.

1:20	Valeria Bednarik:  The currency is moving, if you mean to see a long straight rally, you will have to way till the end of the speach, as usually each sentence sends the pair 15 pips up or down. without much sense

1:22	Valeria Bednarik:  Swiss is making the pullvack to the suggested zone around 1.1240... that should hold to see more upside there. Swiss behaves as Euro mirror, that's why i'm also watching the pair

1:22	Valeria Bednarik:  Besides is fighting with the neck of an inverted head and shouldes figure.

1:22	Valeria Bednarik:  shoulders. sorry for my spelling

1:24	FXstreet.com:  CMS Forex, today’s Sponsor also produces expert analysis, market research and daily market news coverage with videos and reports. Browse the following URLs to learn and take profit from their expertise.

1:25	[Comment From Don] ha ha ha so you said "well if they finally decide to use other tools than rates, That could be dollar positive. " SO WHAT then i NEGATIW for the dollar. Lokks like no mather what we should buy dollars ha ha ha

1:26	FXstreet.com:  CMS General Research page

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1:26	[Comment From Tibo] Valeria, with the reform of the system the G20 want to implement, do you think we could go back to fixed rates?

1:27	Valeria Bednarik:  Don, I could be wrong.. of course, I'm an human expresing my own opinions.. yet longer term charts suggest that! let's see if 1.30 gives up to confirm that in the longer term

1:29	Valeria Bednarik:  Tibo, that' a bit far from sight for me at the moment.

1:30	[Comment From Mr.Cad] The real figure to watch will be the EURGBP now and that should etermine the direction of the Eur...no?

1:31	FXstreet.com:  Watch Trichet's Speech live from the ECB website

1:32

Valeria Bednarik:  Ok some upside correction at the moment. Mr Cad, I don't see things like that, but is a way. The pair has run up close to 0.98, and if you see charts, 0.8840, will be the key point to consider there to see more falls. However that could happen not only with an euro fall, but also with some Gbp movements.

1:33	Valeria Bednarik:  looking majors against Usd, is more objetive, at least for me

1:34	[Comment From naftula] Valeria, What shoulder are you talking about, what time frame?

1:34	FXstreet.com:  we ae now awaiting Trichet's Speech, it seems he is delaying his appareance

1:35	Valeria Bednarik:  Naftula, daily charts in USD/CHF an inverted head and shoulder figure. I will post in in the blog after the press conference, so you can see what i see

1:35	[Comment From bill] do you think job claim gonna impact eu?

1:36	Valeria Bednarik:  Yes Bill no doubts about that. unemployment is a big issue to consider in the nearer future in the Euro zone

1:37	Valeria Bednarik:  I believe we are goint that way right now and will kept worsening this first half of the year, at least

1:38	Valeria Bednarik:  Ok Trichet begin his speach, and he saws inflationary pressures dimishing further.

1:38	Valeria Bednarik:  Again he is focusing on infaltion rather than growth

1:39	Valeria Bednarik:  at least at the beginning. let's see what else he has to add

1:40	Valeria Bednarik:  Swiss Franc 1.1240 zone holds pretty well by the way. Let's see if the pair manages to break precious max and adress to 1.1320

1:42	Valeria Bednarik:  Ok, Trichet also added that "economic growth risk lies clearly on the downside".

1:44	FXstreet.com:  Valeria, what do you think about Trichet's last comment

1:44	Valeria Bednarik:  He expect inflation to increase again in 2009... and the euro jumps to the upside

1:44	Valeria Bednarik:   As told you, not a great definition situation during the speach.

1:45	FXstreet.com:  Inflation Likely To Increase Again In 2H 2009 HICP Will Fluctuate Sharply In 2009 Govt Action Should Help Ensure Fincl System Trust

1:45	FXstreet.com:  More comments: Turmoil Intensification Can Affect Monetary Devts

1:45	Valeria Bednarik:  Above 1.3180, the pair could return to 1.3210/30, let´s see.

1:46	[Comment From Anthony] but if one were to go either short EURUSD, or long USDCHF... which do you think would be more effective?

1:47	Valeria Bednarik:  Yes, I believe there is the worst problem for the ECB despite he talks about inflation: the whole finnacial system structure falling apart with negative qualifications from Standar &Por's

1:48	[Comment From Pritesh] Yesterday we saw a similar EURUSD sell-off but it recovered slightly to stay within key moving averages. Trichet's going to decide this one today it seems.

1:48	Valeria Bednarik:  I rather like swiss franc, but because I can see it clearly close to 1.15 if breaks to the upside.

1:50	Valeria Bednarik:  Yes Pritesh you are right. Market will decide on Trichet's words

1:50	FXstreet.com:  Look now at latest Trichet's comment: Fiscal Policy Must Be Prudent On Stimulus Measures

1:50	Valeria Bednarik:  Meaning probably they won't continue to inject capitals?

1:51	FXstreet.com:   Members Need To Strengthen Euro Zone Econ Resilience, he just said

1:51	Valeria Bednarik:  as said before keeping the finnancial system safe has to be one of ECB's priorities.

1:52	FXstreet.com:  Trchet's Speech is over

1:52	FXstreet.com:  Well, Valeria, any final word after his appareance?

1:53	Valeria Bednarik:  ok, still we have the questions during the press conference, but I will suggest yo all to wait at least 15 minutes to enter the market

1:54	FXstreet.com:  Please, send your las questions to Valeria. In about 5 minutes we are going to finnish this live Coverage

1:54	Valeria Bednarik:  Watch the levels mentioned earlier for the short term direction, the zone @ 1.3180 to the upside, the minimus just acomplished to the downside @ 1.3070

1:55	Valeria Bednarik:  For what I can see right now, selling pressure is still high in Euro,

1:56	Valeria Bednarik:  Anyway, the rate was as expected, the speach not as dovish as should have been for me.

1:57	FXstreet.com:  Time to wrap up this Live Coverage today. Many thanks Val for your participation in this live coverage today. It has been a great pleasure to count on you. Valeria Will now continue watching the markets in her Blog.

1:57	FXstreet.com:  The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

1:57	Valeria Bednarik:  Thank you all for being here! see you soon! bye

1:58	FXstreet.com:  Thansk to all of you for your participation!

1:58	FXstreet.com:  I would like to specially thank CMS Forex, today’s sponsor, for their support. Use these links to follow up about today’s main market news. Open a live account with CMS with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now.

1:59	FXstreet.com:  CMS General Research page

1:59	FXstreet.com:  Daily video about the main market news

1:59	FXstreet.com:  Expert Analysis of Today's Market

1:59	FXstreet.com:  Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead

1:59	FXstreet.com:  See you soon!

2:00

ECB Interest Rates decission Live Coverage

(01/15/2009)  Powered by: CoveritLive

  

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12:13

FXstreet.com:  Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's BoE Interest Rates Decision Live Coverage will start in 2 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Valeria Bednarik who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. She will be giving us a direct picture fo the market status.

12:14

FXstreet.com:  Valeria Bednarik has been an active Forex trader for the last 3 years, specializing in the International Foreign Exchange Market. She also graduates in the Universidad Catolica del Salvador, in Argentina, as a Public Account, specializing in financials and cost managements. She currently manages an important clients portfolio for IFX Markets, Boston and is senior trader manager at Molfx-Management; besides she works training new traders with Trader College LLC specializing in technical analysis, for the English speaking community.

12:16

FXstreet.com:  Hi Valeria, Thanks for meeting us today!

12:17

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi everybody! welcome to this live ECB's coverage! is a pleasure to be here with you today, again

12:17

FXstreet.com:  Today the ECB is widely expected to cut the ongoing interest rates by 50bps to 2.00%.The EUR/USD found a support level at 1.3090 yesterday. Currently the pair is moving sideways above 1.3100 level, in a narrow range of 100 pips. It is important to determine how the ECB considers the current economic situation. A hawkish view would boost up the EUR/USD towards 1.3500 level, on the hand, a dovish view would drag the pair down below 1.3000 level. Trichet speech is scheduled at 13:30GMT. What do you think Valeria?

12:17

Valeria Bednarik:  Today, we are expecting ECB to cut rates..as the administrator is posting.

12:18

Valeria Bednarik:  I believe the cut is already priced in in Euro price, at least if they stay into the 0.50 basis point

12:19

Valeria Bednarik:   Better chances to see market react to Mr Trichet words, as the hawkish or dovish perspective, will decide the Euro destiny. Right now I wonder what can we call a hawkish speach,

12:21

Valeria Bednarik:  The economic slowdown is worsening in Europe, Standar & Poor's is hitting bank qualifications day after day (italy, Greece, Spain), so what can he say, to turn thing from here?

12:22

Valeria Bednarik:  Anyway, we can especulate about it, yet the true will be here in an hour or so. From a technical perspective, the key points to consider, in one way or the other, are 1.3090 to the downside, 1.3260 to the upside

12:22

Valeria Bednarik:  A clear break of any of them, will probably define the rest of the day trend for the pair

12:24

Valeria Bednarik:  By this time, dollar continues to push higher across the board, seems market players are betting on a dovish speach.

12:25

Valeria Bednarik:  Let's also remember, inflation is slowing down in the Euro zone (finally taking notice that oil has come form 150 to 35 dollars a barrel)

12:26

FXstreet.com:  Thank you very much Valeria for sharing your approach with us

12:26

Valeria Bednarik:  that makes cutting rates easier

12:26

FXstreet.com:  I would like to hear now what our viewers think... Vote the poll!!!

12:26

Will the ECB low the bench mark interest rate? Yes, the ECB will cut it by 25bps  ( 5% ) Yes, the ECB will cut it by 50bps  ( 68% ) Yes, on an aggressive cut it by moe than 75bps.  ( 24% ) No, the ECB will rather hold the ongoing rate.  ( 0% ) No, the ECB will rather hike it by 25bps  ( 2% )

12:27

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12:27

FXstreet.com:  CMS General Research page

12:27

FXstreet.com:  Daily video about the main market news

12:27

FXstreet.com:  Expert Analysis of Today's Market

12:27

FXstreet.com:  Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead

12:28

FXstreet.com:  Valeria Bednarik will be back woth us to answer your questions in just a couple of minutes, in the meantime I would like to remind all of you that Valeria is one of our bloggers and the author of The Advisor Blog

12:28

FXstreet.com:  The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

12:29

FXstreet.com:  For all the Spanish viewers and for all those who would like to meet Valeria and travel to Spain, I am glad to announce you that Valeria Bednarik is preparing a course in Valencia for the next month.

12:29

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12:30

FXstreet.com:  Val, what could you explain us about the course?

12:30

Valeria Bednarik:  From a technical perspective, the pair Eur/Usd is set to fall in the longer term

12:31

Valeria Bednarik:  Ok to the course sorry! the course is a complete technical education one

12:31

Valeria Bednarik:  the idea is explain all the tools we have avaiable for trading, help participants to design and use trading systems, and complete it with an on line tutorial after that live week

12:32

Valeria Bednarik:  we will cover all: undertood fundamentals, money management, risk control, not just technical analysis, although as you know, I'ma technical trader, so that will be the center of it

12:34

Valeria Bednarik:  Sorry! lost conexion for a sec! Back to Euro enough course!

12:34

FXstreet.com:  thanks Valeria, we have some quetions from our viewers, let's answer as many as possible

12:35

FXstreet.com:  If your question is not answered during the Live Coverage, you can contact Valeria on her blog

12:35

FXstreet.com:  The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

12:36

[Comment From Guest] waht is the chance of a 1pp cut

12:36

Valeria Bednarik:   Take a look at the bigger charts i have been posting in my blog: december huge movements, have been exactly the 61.8% correction form 1.60 to 1.23 and by this time, remains also under the 38.2% around 1.3740. Chances of a downside continuation in the medium term remains high

12:36

Valeria Bednarik:  I don't expect such a large rate cut today

12:38

Valeria Bednarik:  BeHowever if they do, Euro could quicky fell apart agaisnt most rivals

12:39

Valeria Bednarik:  a good chance to trade Euro gbp, or Eur/Jpy as those pairs will give larger rallies in that case

12:40

[Comment From gcfx] Eur/usd is going down 1.2880

12:40

[Comment From gcfx] technical will act

12:40

FXstreet.com:  For all of you that have asked about the time for the released, the data will be announced in 5 minutes: 12:45 GMT

12:40

[Comment From Guest] Why do you say the long term pair is bearish?

12:40

Valeria Bednarik:  No doubts about that, my friend.

12:41

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12:41

Valeria Bednarik:  I guess i explain that in previous answer... also you can see the pair break under a huge ascendnat monthly line, complete the pullback, at 1.4700 zone and come back from there to actual levels

12:43

[Comment From Gregy3d] Do you think that EUR/JPY at 110 is reality this week? In case of 0,75 rate cut, of course.

12:45

Valeria Bednarik:  Yes Greg, a bigger cut and Japanese Yen strength will certainly take the pair to the downside. not dare to say 110, but probably an interesting fall in there fist to 114.00 zone, important minimum in daily charts.Under that, a test of 110 is likely

12:45

FXstreet.com:  As expected, the ECB cut rates by 0,50 bps

12:45

Valeria Bednarik:  time for the news!

12:46

FXstreet.com:  Valeria, this is going to give a breath to the Eurozone Economy, don't you think so?

12:46

Valeria Bednarik:  ok no surprises in the number, the cut was as expected. Let's see if the pair chose a direction with this data or waits for Trichet's speach

12:47

Valeria Bednarik:  I believe yes, some relief to common people pockets, yes

12:48

Valeria Bednarik:  Mortgage is the root of this global crisis... begining in the U.S yet extendend all across the world. A smaller rate means smaller payments, and more money, more consumer movements

12:49

Valeria Bednarik:  the kick start for growth

12:49

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12:50

Valeria Bednarik:  No much market reaction at the moment, market is waiting for Trichet!

12:50

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12:50

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12:50

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12:51

Valeria Bednarik:   Finally some reaction let's see if the pair manages to break under yesterday's low, 1.3090

12:52

FXstreet.com:  Let's continue answering some of the questions we are receiving today. Please, keep on sendng them to Valeria. We will stay live from FXstreet.com covering Trichet's speech too

12:52

[Comment From Piotr] cut is too small for braeth , dont You think so ?

12:52

Valeria Bednarik:  theat willbring more selling pressure to the pair. Also if you take a look at Swiss Franc, the pair is ready to break to the upside, oonce it pass the congestion zone between 1.1240/70

12:53

Valeria Bednarik:  Is better than nothing actual rates are low enough and leave some room for more if necesary

12:55

Valeria Bednarik:  here we are! both pairs are attemtimg to break! if next 15 minutes candle confirms the movement we could see good rallies triggered al across the board

12:56

[Comment From SWEIS] DO YOU TINK IT WILL REVERSE BACK UP TODAY TO 1.32400?

12:56

[Comment From Paul Giggs] do you expect euro to rebound in the coming minutes?

12:56

Valeria Bednarik:  Gbp by the way, is moving quite slowly and as said before, Eur Gbp and Eur/Jpy are giving interesting movements

12:57

Valeria Bednarik:  sweis, will depend on trichet speach.. however the pair remains pushing to the downside, If confirms under 1,3080 no much chances of such come back

12:58

Valeria Bednarik:  Paul, not in the coming minutes no.

12:59

Valeria Bednarik:   movements will continue choppy but seems that pushing to the downside

12:59

[Comment From Engin] what you mean with "confirm" of under 1,3080?

12:59

[Comment From Tauseef] at what level you suggest of buying usd/chf?

1:00	Valeria Bednarik:  menaing to wait for a candle openning or so. at least 15 mnutes after the new is realised.

1:01	Valeria Bednarik:   Tauseef, from actual price, the pair could come back to the 1.1240 zone... and should hold there to remain bullish. Above 1.1280, probable run to 1.1320

1:02	Valeria Bednarik:  as fisrt target zone, and adressing to 1.15 zone

1:03	Valeria Bednarik:  We have some conexion delay, sorry for the inconvinience

1:05	Valeria Bednarik:  The pair is fighting around 1.3100, and Swiss with the 1.1270 zone, yet they remain close enough to suggest a continuation form here.

1:06	[Comment From Shen] what's your target if eur under 1.3080?

1:07	Valeria Bednarik:  Well close to 1.3000 zone,

1:07	Valeria Bednarik:  if 1.30 gives up, tight your seat belts!

1:08	[Comment From Steve] What do you think Trichet's bias will be? More concerned about a liquidity trap or accepting of greater recessionary pressures?

1:09	Valeria Bednarik:  I wish I could understand him a bit more.. last year, while the world was falling apart, he insisted on a hawkish vias

1:09	Valeria Bednarik:  finally nobody take him seriously.

1:10	Valeria Bednarik:  Is not just what he is going to say, is more on how market will undertand it. any aproach to recessionary pressures, will be highly dovish understood

1:10	Valeria Bednarik:   As I said earlier, I me, myself, and just me, can't see room for hawkish comments

1:11	[Comment From Guest] what is trichet expected to say that could impact eur/usd?

1:11	Valeria Bednarik:  Would any of you believe it, if he says something like We are doing fine? We are coming out?

1:13	Valeria Bednarik:   He is expect to be worried about recession and economic slowdown, and not about inflation. Inflation has been the excuse to push rates higher. Now with low inflations levels, there are no chances of going that way

1:13	[Comment From Guest] what now eur fall under 80

1:13	Valeria Bednarik:  15 minutes to the beginning of the speach! Anyway, rememeber.. usually market will jump on each sentence

1:14	[Comment From Guest] What is the outlook for the next Fed meeting?

1:14	Valeria Bednarik:  he says, so won't be time to enter the market

1:15	Valeria Bednarik:  Yes Euro is going down, but if you ask me, I will tell you to stay away. World won't end today.. not even trading

1:17

Valeria Bednarik:  I have not read much about Fed's next meeting yet, but think of this: Obama will be the president finally. Will he do all he is saying? or wil they finally bring rates directly yo 0.00% as rumours we are hearing? well if they finally decide to use other tools than rates, That could be dollar positive.

1:17	Valeria Bednarik:  Sendin rates directly to 0.00% won't make a difference. Besides is clear they won't rise rates for a good number of months

1:18	[Comment From Blackforext] where do you see the support coming in on the downside. what are we looking for in the press conf to get the currency to really move

1:18	FXstreet.com:  Trichet's Speech will start in about 10 min (13:30 GMT and will finnish at 14:00 GMT)

1:19	Valeria Bednarik:   The pair is right now in the first suppor zone suggested, 1.3090, still not confirming a break under, and probably waiting at this time, for Trichet speach.

1:20	Valeria Bednarik:  The currency is moving, if you mean to see a long straight rally, you will have to way till the end of the speach, as usually each sentence sends the pair 15 pips up or down. without much sense

1:22	Valeria Bednarik:  Swiss is making the pullvack to the suggested zone around 1.1240... that should hold to see more upside there. Swiss behaves as Euro mirror, that's why i'm also watching the pair

1:22	Valeria Bednarik:  Besides is fighting with the neck of an inverted head and shouldes figure.

1:22	Valeria Bednarik:  shoulders. sorry for my spelling

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1:25	[Comment From Don] ha ha ha so you said "well if they finally decide to use other tools than rates, That could be dollar positive. " SO WHAT then i NEGATIW for the dollar. Lokks like no mather what we should buy dollars ha ha ha

1:26	FXstreet.com:  CMS General Research page

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1:26	[Comment From Tibo] Valeria, with the reform of the system the G20 want to implement, do you think we could go back to fixed rates?

1:27	Valeria Bednarik:  Don, I could be wrong.. of course, I'm an human expresing my own opinions.. yet longer term charts suggest that! let's see if 1.30 gives up to confirm that in the longer term

1:29	Valeria Bednarik:  Tibo, that' a bit far from sight for me at the moment.

1:30	[Comment From Mr.Cad] The real figure to watch will be the EURGBP now and that should etermine the direction of the Eur...no?

1:31	FXstreet.com:  Watch Trichet's Speech live from the ECB website

1:32

Valeria Bednarik:  Ok some upside correction at the moment. Mr Cad, I don't see things like that, but is a way. The pair has run up close to 0.98, and if you see charts, 0.8840, will be the key point to consider there to see more falls. However that could happen not only with an euro fall, but also with some Gbp movements.

1:33	Valeria Bednarik:  looking majors against Usd, is more objetive, at least for me

1:34	[Comment From naftula] Valeria, What shoulder are you talking about, what time frame?

1:34	FXstreet.com:  we ae now awaiting Trichet's Speech, it seems he is delaying his appareance

1:35	Valeria Bednarik:  Naftula, daily charts in USD/CHF an inverted head and shoulder figure. I will post in in the blog after the press conference, so you can see what i see

1:35	[Comment From bill] do you think job claim gonna impact eu?

1:36	Valeria Bednarik:  Yes Bill no doubts about that. unemployment is a big issue to consider in the nearer future in the Euro zone

1:37	Valeria Bednarik:  I believe we are goint that way right now and will kept worsening this first half of the year, at least

1:38	Valeria Bednarik:  Ok Trichet begin his speach, and he saws inflationary pressures dimishing further.

1:38	Valeria Bednarik:  Again he is focusing on infaltion rather than growth

1:39	Valeria Bednarik:  at least at the beginning. let's see what else he has to add

1:40	Valeria Bednarik:  Swiss Franc 1.1240 zone holds pretty well by the way. Let's see if the pair manages to break precious max and adress to 1.1320

1:42	Valeria Bednarik:  Ok, Trichet also added that "economic growth risk lies clearly on the downside".

1:44	FXstreet.com:  Valeria, what do you think about Trichet's last comment

1:44	Valeria Bednarik:  He expect inflation to increase again in 2009... and the euro jumps to the upside

1:44	Valeria Bednarik:   As told you, not a great definition situation during the speach.

1:45	FXstreet.com:  Inflation Likely To Increase Again In 2H 2009 HICP Will Fluctuate Sharply In 2009 Govt Action Should Help Ensure Fincl System Trust

1:45	FXstreet.com:  More comments: Turmoil Intensification Can Affect Monetary Devts

1:45	Valeria Bednarik:  Above 1.3180, the pair could return to 1.3210/30, let´s see.

1:46	[Comment From Anthony] but if one were to go either short EURUSD, or long USDCHF... which do you think would be more effective?

1:47	Valeria Bednarik:  Yes, I believe there is the worst problem for the ECB despite he talks about inflation: the whole finnacial system structure falling apart with negative qualifications from Standar &Por's

1:48	[Comment From Pritesh] Yesterday we saw a similar EURUSD sell-off but it recovered slightly to stay within key moving averages. Trichet's going to decide this one today it seems.

1:48	Valeria Bednarik:  I rather like swiss franc, but because I can see it clearly close to 1.15 if breaks to the upside.

1:50	Valeria Bednarik:  Yes Pritesh you are right. Market will decide on Trichet's words

1:50	FXstreet.com:  Look now at latest Trichet's comment: Fiscal Policy Must Be Prudent On Stimulus Measures

1:50	Valeria Bednarik:  Meaning probably they won't continue to inject capitals?

1:51	FXstreet.com:   Members Need To Strengthen Euro Zone Econ Resilience, he just said

1:51	Valeria Bednarik:  as said before keeping the finnancial system safe has to be one of ECB's priorities.

1:52	FXstreet.com:  Trchet's Speech is over

1:52	FXstreet.com:  Well, Valeria, any final word after his appareance?

1:53	Valeria Bednarik:  ok, still we have the questions during the press conference, but I will suggest yo all to wait at least 15 minutes to enter the market

1:54	FXstreet.com:  Please, send your las questions to Valeria. In about 5 minutes we are going to finnish this live Coverage

1:54	Valeria Bednarik:  Watch the levels mentioned earlier for the short term direction, the zone @ 1.3180 to the upside, the minimus just acomplished to the downside @ 1.3070

1:55	Valeria Bednarik:  For what I can see right now, selling pressure is still high in Euro,

1:56	Valeria Bednarik:  Anyway, the rate was as expected, the speach not as dovish as should have been for me.

1:57	FXstreet.com:  Time to wrap up this Live Coverage today. Many thanks Val for your participation in this live coverage today. It has been a great pleasure to count on you. Valeria Will now continue watching the markets in her Blog.

1:57	FXstreet.com:  The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

1:57	Valeria Bednarik:  Thank you all for being here! see you soon! bye

1:58	FXstreet.com:  Thansk to all of you for your participation!

1:58	FXstreet.com:  I would like to specially thank CMS Forex, today’s sponsor, for their support. Use these links to follow up about today’s main market news. Open a live account with CMS with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now.

1:59	FXstreet.com:  CMS General Research page

1:59	FXstreet.com:  Daily video about the main market news

1:59	FXstreet.com:  Expert Analysis of Today's Market

1:59	FXstreet.com:  Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead

1:59	FXstreet.com:  See you soon!

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Non-Farm Payrolls Live Coverage

Non-Farm Payrolls Live Coverage with Nick Nasad

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12:58

FXstreet.com:  Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's Non-Farm Payrolls Live Coverage will start in 5 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Nick Nasad who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. He will be giving us a direct picture for the market status.

12:59

Nick Nasad - CMS:  Hello everyone

1:00

FXstreet.com:  Nick Nasad is a currency market analyst with CMS Forex for the last 3 years. He closely monitors fundamental releases and reports their results and provides commentary to the company's clients through CMS Forex's interactive economic calendar Forex Capsule and through daily Forex market video recaps. He has also written extensive educational material on using technical analysis in trading Forex.

1:01

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1:02	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Thank you for having me

1:02

Nick Nasad - CMS:   Well here we are again looking at another very poor employment report from the US. Expectations have been jumping around slightly. Expectations are for a 525K loss in December, following a drop of 533K in November. Earlier this week we had the ADP employment report show private firms cutting as much as 693K jobs and they claimed that their figures were revised to try to fall more in line with the government’s report. Now, whether you believe the ADP release or discount it may be an important factor in how you view today’s data. I personally think we are going to come close to the estimate, though we have a chance of overshooting it.

1:03	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Though i see that fxstreet has a projection of 480K

1:03	[Comment From denny] hello,what is your projection of NFP?

1:03	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I think we will see a number close to 520K

1:04	Nick Nasad - CMS:  but then again, we had some better than expected jobless claims figures, that may hve come about as a result of the difficulties in smoothing out the data during the holidays

1:04	FXstreet.com:  Yes, Nick, you are right. The consensus published in our economic calendar is -480K

1:04	FXstreet.com:  http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

1:05

Nick Nasad - CMS:   Forex markets have returned to a sense of normalcy in December and January, so we can anticipate them to behave more or less how we would expect to a release. If we see a number close to consensus, then the Dollar, though weaker, should not fall dramatically. Anything above 550K, we should see the Dollar sold off. Coming into the release we have already seen Dollar weakness, especially vs the majors, the Euro, Pound, and Yen.

1:06	[Comment From shariq] so this might be another bearish day for usd based on what NFP comes out with

1:06	Nick Nasad - CMS:  shariq, you are correct., after a rebound in the Dollar to end the year, we are seeing new trends forming pointing to Dollar weaknes. Seeing two months in a row of half-a-million job losses is not good news for an economy.

1:08	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Still, we have had some of the initial expectations priced in the past two sessions, so a number around 480K-520K may be priced in at this point. Of course you will see some people that traders that are on the sidelines prior to the release come in which can increase volatility

1:09	[Comment From A. Gajani] Mr. Nick If the numbers comes beyond 550K do you think the market should move around 1.4000 in short time? Thanks

1:10	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I think that is a very solid resistance level.

1:10	Nick Nasad - CMS:  as it was the main level broken prior to the end of the year.

1:11	Nick Nasad - CMS:  it does lie above the 38.2% retracement level (1.388) of the uptrend we saw in December in the EUR/USD, so we may see some action there first in terms of our first resistance level.

1:11	FXstreet.com:  Please, keep on posting your questions and comments. Nick Nasad will try to answer as many as possible. Nick is the author of the daily video about the main market news on CMS Forex site:

1:12	FXstreet.com:  Daily video about the main market news

1:12	FXstreet.com:  CMS Forex is also offering some other great research for forex traders:

1:12	FXstreet.com:  CMS General Research page

1:12	FXstreet.com:  Expert Analysis of Today's Market

1:12	FXstreet.com:  Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead

1:12	FXstreet.com:  Now it's time to know what do you expect for the NFP report today... Vote the poll!!

1:12	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Yes, please do check out our resources, like our daily video recap and Forex Capsule (our economic calendar full of analysis)

1:13	What do you expect for the NFP today? NFP will recover any job  ( 0% ) NFP will loose more than 500K  ( 71% ) NFP to lost less than 500k  ( 29% )

1:13	[Comment From vivek] so more than likely the eurusd will rise to over 1.40 be it temporary and gbpusd may touch 1.55?

1:15	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Pound has been climbing very strongly this week, and I am not sure that we will see some consolidation now. There was very weak production data out of the UK which put our attention back on the weakness there.

1:15	Nick Nasad - CMS:  a very poor report from teh US might see the pair test the 1.55 level, even today, with how the Pound has been gaining, but we have some very clear resistance avobe that.

1:16

[Comment From Dale] I don't think anyone should be trading the dollar on today's data. We know that the US is in a deep recession and the unemployment data will bad for a while. Everyone should concentrate on the long term problem that will face the dollar in the second half of this year. We have to understand that the dollar usually improves in the first three months of each year so it might improve on the short term but the long term will be down.

1:16	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Dale, there are all kinds of traders, some more short term, and others that are long term. Usually trading a fundamental release carries alot of risk, and the market moves very fast. but to each their own..

1:17	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I think you have a point in that the Dollar looks weak in teh long term because of all the massive spending and printing of money that will happen in 2009 to try and get the US out of this recession. The extra supply of Dollars will weaken the currency going forward.

1:17	[Comment From Hamid] Hello Mr. Nick If NFP more than 700k usdjpy how many pip down?Thanks

1:19	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Ouch, a figure of -700K will be very bearish,. the USD/JPY has cut down its gains from last week and is now entering a level where it consolidated around the holidays

1:19	Nick Nasad - CMS:  We reached as low as 87.10 in Decvember, and a very poor data that sends stocks freefalling could have us there again in a short time..

1:19	[Comment From Jorge] Mr Nasad, what is your thoughts about the yen??

1:20	Nick Nasad - CMS:  We have seen a return to risk aversion the past several sessions. stocks around the world and commodity prices have declined as we have had weak employment data come out of several regions. That benefits the Yen.

1:21

Nick Nasad - CMS:  If we see a continuation of those sentiments, and watch today's US equities for clues, then teh Yen may continue to gain.. The yen is also doing a good job against the Aussie and Kiwi, as we saw a dramatic drop in oil prices a couple of days ago, following a test of $50 a barrel early in the week.

1:22	[Comment From vivek] what do you feel the outlook is for GBPUSD given the fact that its been on the upswing and trends show that the upswing is here to stay? what level do you think it may touch in the short term following the payrolls?

1:23	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I dont know that its a given that the recent rise of the Pound is a completely new trend. If you look back since the start of November, we have a sideways trading range and we are coming to the top part of it currently

1:24	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Key resistance is at 1.55 as someone mentioned before, with more resstiance slighly higher thatn that 1.57., It we break those levels we can see a continued rise, but everything is relative

1:25	Nick Nasad - CMS:  traders may have been hoping for a quicker thatn expected recovery from the UK, but something like the industrial data seen today, and the fact that producer prices did not fall as fast as expected can halt that momentum.

1:25	Nick Nasad - CMS:  So, I would watch what happens around 1.55 if we reach there as aresult of today's data.

1:26	FXstreet.com:  One question now for all the traders gathered here today... Vote the poll

1:26	Wich pair will be hottest with NFP release? EURUSD  ( 47% ) GBPUSD  ( 23% ) USDJPY  ( 26% ) USDCAD  ( 5% )

1:26

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1:27	[Comment From Guest] so basically if the numbers turn out to be below 525K we will see bearish for the usd and if the numbers turn the opposite way will see bulish?

1:27	FXstreet.com:  3 minutes for the release!!!!

1:27	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I think you have this backwards, but that is my number yes. a drop of more than 525 will be bearish.. below that may have been priced in at this point, though those traders on teh sidelines may come in and increase volatility

1:28	[Comment From denny] Hi, please give me some ideas. how will u.s. recession influence its counterparties?

1:29	Nick Nasad - CMS:  If i understand your question correctly, the demand for the Dollar is already fading in places like China which is a major purcahser of US debt aka Tresuries. if the us find it harder to finance its spending, it will be a poor indicator for the US dollar.

1:29	[Comment From sam] Hi, I sold euro/us at 1.33. Based on todays NFP results should I continue to hold my position? Thanks

1:30	FXstreet.com:  -524k!!!!

1:30	Nick Nasad - CMS:  sam, the 1.33 level was a key level of support, so it was not the best place to sell. where you get out of a position should be based on your trading plan

1:30	Nick Nasad - CMS:  ok, lets see how the markets react.

1:31	FXstreet.com:  7.2% for unemployment

1:31	FXstreet.com:  CMS Forex, today’s Sponsor also produces expert analysis, market research and daily market news coverage with videos and reports. Browse the following URLs to learn and take profit from their expertise.

1:31	FXstreet.com:  Daily video about the main market news

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1:32	Nick Nasad - CMS:  We are seeing some back and forth currently

1:32	FXstreet.com:  *DEC CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: -524K -525KE; CHANGE IN MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS: -149K -100KE- Prior Nov Nonfarm revised Lower from -533K to -584K- Prior Nov Manufacturing revised from -85K to -104K

1:32	FXstreet.com:  *DEC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 7.2% 7.0%E- Prior revised from 6.7% to 6.8%- last 7.0% reading in unemply rate was Jun 1993

1:32	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the unemp[loyment rate climbed higher than expected

1:33	FXstreet.com:  Nick, please, could you give us your opinion about what direction is the market taken now?

1:33	Nick Nasad - CMS:  but still i think this report is in line with expectations, and should help the Dollar

1:33	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we are seeing a rise in the USD/JPY

1:34	Nick Nasad - CMS:  while the Euro and Pound are battling back and forth. In a 5 minute candle teh GBP/USD set up a head and shoulders and is not falling in favor of the Dolalr

1:34	Nick Nasad - CMS:  no direction yet for EUR/USD..

1:35	[Comment From vivek] how do you think the markets will react...numbers wise for gbpusd and eurusd

1:36	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I was sensing a bit of a reverasal in teh GBP/USD, with the Dollar retracing some of its losses, but still, the action we see right now mayb be a clear out..

1:37	Nick Nasad - CMS:  for the EUR/USD the pair bounced off the recent upward sloping trendline.. connecting the lows from Tuesday and yesterday.

1:37	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I sense we might see some sideways trading as those that were pessimistic about the jobs report battle with those that may have though it would come in line with expectations..

1:38	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Oh, Euro jumped a bit but we are still seeing choppy trading with no clear direction.. most of the time the first 5 mintues will be the most volatile

1:38	Nick Nasad - CMS:  if we had a new direction.

1:38	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the USD/CAD broke its recent high and is now at 1.19

1:39	[Comment From i4x] some very nice moves are taking place, i went short gbpjpy... Nick Nasad do you cover the gbpjpy ?

1:40	Nick Nasad - CMS:  If you went short at short term resistance, near 140, that could be a good level.. i think the pound strength we have seen this week needs to have a correction.

1:40	Nick Nasad - CMS:  if stocks in the US react favorably to the jobs data, as it came in line with expecations without a big negative surpris, we can see a move back to 138 in the short term as we may see a sideways range forming.

1:41	Nick Nasad - CMS:  a fibonacci retracement study of the recent rise in the GBP/JPY shows the recent support at 38.2%..

1:41	Nick Nasad - CMS:  EUR/USD is falling now

1:42	Nick Nasad - CMS:  seems like the Dollar bulls may have wrested control

1:42	Nick Nasad - CMS:  but again we are seeing some choppy conditions

1:42	[Comment From denny] how long do you think the GBP strength will last?

1:43	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I think there may have been some inflated expecations about the UK economy perhaps recovering faster than expected.., we also saw some positive reaction to the Bank of England's plan to increase bank lending earlier in the week.

1:44	Nick Nasad - CMS:  but from look at the fundamentals (and at heart i follow fundamentals) i did not see a logical reason for the strenght, except as a correction of recent Pound weakness, in the EUR/GBP especially

1:44	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the Pound seems to be playing off technical factors

1:45	Nick Nasad - CMS:  as against the USD the 1.44 level was a strong level of support that helped push the pair back into its sideways range that has been established since the start of November

1:45	Nick Nasad - CMS:  ok, so the EUR/USD is now at the upward sloping trendine i mentioned earlier.

1:45	Nick Nasad - CMS:  and broke it..

1:46	Nick Nasad - CMS:  but then came back up from 1.3650..

1:46	Nick Nasad - CMS:  which was a retest of the line, and now we are seeing a sustained move down.

1:46	Nick Nasad - CMS:  yep, that was the signal there for many traders to sell the pair.

1:47	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Dollar bulls are in control now

1:47	[Comment From wiper] Any direction for the eur/usd?

1:47	Nick Nasad - CMS:  i think you are seeing it now..

1:48	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Dollar is also making gains against the Pound and Loonie

1:49	Nick Nasad - CMS:  It took some time, but the Dollar strenth i was expecting from a release that was in line with expectations is materializing.

1:49	[Comment From vivek] do you think its worth goin in buying gbp against usd and eur against usd now?

1:49	Nick Nasad - CMS:  dont try and catch a falling knife, just because you see prices coming down alot.. you should enter trades based on a trading plan.

1:50	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I would like to point you guys to our Power Trading Course where you can learn to create a trading plan.

1:50	Nick Nasad - CMS:  http://www.cmsfx.com/en/forex-education/forex-webinars/

1:51	[Comment From Dusan] Nick, it seems that $ is going up vers. € after NFP - currently at 1,36. What is your opinion - what level can $ reach vers. € before ECB meeting next Thursday?

1:51	Nick Nasad - CMS:  some clear visual levels of support are 1.3550, and then 1.34

1:52	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we are seeing a bit of a pull back from our falls in the Euro and POund

1:52	Nick Nasad - CMS:  this represents the traders who like vivek, may sense an opprtunity to go long on this pair.

1:52

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1:53	Nick Nasad - CMS:  and there may be validity in that bet, but it should be backed up by some technical setups prior and not just a reaction to the stepp price fall we have seen just now.

1:54	[Comment From Henrique] Do y think the $ will keep going up all day? or theres is a strong support ahead?

1:55	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Henrique, it depends on how US stocks react to the news at this point, I sense we may see some back and forth action still.,

1:56	Nick Nasad - CMS:  being that today is a Friday, you always have to factor in some squaring of positions prior to the weekend as well. since the number was not a surprise in either direction, it comes down to how market particiapants now digest the data. that is open to interpretation.

1:57	Nick Nasad - CMS:  personally, though the drop in employment was sharp, the fact that the situation did not deteriorate further than it did in november, i will take as a positive sign. I think we will see some poor jobs reports ahead, but most of the firings probably occured in teh 4th quarter

1:58	Nick Nasad - CMS:  of course, things can change dramatically, and the first half of 2009 will not be full of good news for the US economy by any stretch of the imaginiation.

1:58	Nick Nasad - CMS:  when someone will take half a million job losses as a positive sign.. you know the US is going through a very difficult period.

1:58	[Comment From Henrique] We have to wait for the US martkets to see whats going on than

1:59	Nick Nasad - CMS:  with no more releases ahead, we have to see how equities respond to the news.

1:59	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the USD/JPY is higher following the news

2:00	Nick Nasad - CMS:  so any kind of rally in US stocks will probably be dollar positive in that pair..

2:00	Nick Nasad - CMS:  so we are still hovering near 1.36 in the EUR/USD

2:00	Nick Nasad - CMS:  but a more clear level of support is 1.3550, as this was yesterday's low.

2:02	FXstreet.com:  Time to wrap-up this Live Coverage today

2:02	Nick Nasad - CMS:  so, we had a pretty strong reaction of 150 pips in EUR/USD

2:03	FXstreet.com:  So Nick, what would be your final words, any advice for traders?

2:03	Nick Nasad - CMS:  and the break of a short term line of support, so lets see if that means the start of some dollar strenth in the sessions ahead.

2:03	Nick Nasad - CMS:  oh., make that 200 pips now.., and we reached 1.355

2:04	Nick Nasad - CMS:  thank you very much for coming to our live coverage, and fxstreet for having me on again.

2:05	FXstreet.com:  Thanks to you Nick for yor time and for sharing your expertise with us today!

2:05	FXstreet.com:  I would like to specially thank CMS Forex, today’s sponsor, for their support. Use these links to follow up about today’s main market news. Open a live account with CMS with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now.

2:05	Nick Nasad - CMS:  http://www.cmsfx.com/rss/daily-videos.xml

2:05	FXstreet.com:  Daily video about the main market news

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2:05	Nick Nasad - CMS:  One last thing, if you want to subscribe to our rss of our daily videos, you can find that here... http://www.cmsfx.com/rss/daily-videos.xml

2:06	Nick Nasad - CMS:  thanks you all again, and happy trading out there today.

2:07	Nick Nasad - CMS:  goodbye~

2:09	FXstreet.com:  Thanks Nick. We will have Nick with us again for the FED live coverage, the next 28th

2:10	FXstreet.com:  We have more events and news coverage right now on FXstreet.com. Keep posted of the Forex Market news on our homepage or join Wayne McDonell in the Trade Non-Farm Payrolls Live webinar:

2:10	FXstreet.com:  Bye!!

The World of Forex Breakout Trading

Expert: James Chen, Chief Technical Analyst at FX Solutions
Moderator: Maud Gilson

Summary:
Learn the intricacies of high-probability breakout (and fakeout) trading in the forex market. Breakouts can be remarkably effective opportunities to take advantage of potentially profitable currency price action. But in order to maximize these opportunities while minimizing potential losses, the right tools, criteria, and mindsetust be utilized. This webinar will cover the best methods for approaching forex breakouts.