Non-Farm Payrolls Live Coverage
| Non-Farm Payrolls Live Coverage with Nick Nasad | (01/09/2009) Powered by: CoveritLive |
12:58 | FXstreet.com: Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's Non-Farm Payrolls Live Coverage will start in 5 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Nick Nasad who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. He will be giving us a direct picture for the market status. |
12:59 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Hello everyone |
1:00 | FXstreet.com: Nick Nasad is a currency market analyst with CMS Forex for the last 3 years. He closely monitors fundamental releases and reports their results and provides commentary to the company's clients through CMS Forex's interactive economic calendar Forex Capsule and through daily Forex market video recaps. He has also written extensive educational material on using technical analysis in trading Forex. |
1:01 | FXstreet.com: I am pelased to announce you that today’s sponsor is CMS Forex. CMS Forex has some of the most competitive Forex trading terms on the market today! Unlike many Forex brokers, CMS Forex allows you to trade both mini (10,000) and standard (100,000) lots under a single account. Open a live account with CMS Forex with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now. CMS Forex also produces expert analysis, market research and daily market news coverage with videos and reports. Browse the following URLs to learn and take profit from their expertise. |
1:02 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Thank you for having me |
1:02 | Nick Nasad - CMS:
Well here we are again looking at another very poor employment report from the US. Expectations have been jumping around slightly. Expectations are for a 525K loss in December, following a drop of 533K in November. Earlier this week we had the ADP employment report show private firms cutting as much as 693K jobs and they claimed that their figures were revised to try to fall more in line with the government’s report. Now, whether you believe the ADP release or discount it may be an important factor in how you view today’s data. I personally think we are going to come close to the estimate, though we have a chance of overshooting it. |
1:03 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Though i see that fxstreet has a projection of 480K |
1:03 | [Comment From denny] hello,what is your projection of NFP? |
1:03 | Nick Nasad - CMS: I think we will see a number close to 520K |
1:04 | Nick Nasad - CMS: but then again, we had some better than expected jobless claims figures, that may hve come about as a result of the difficulties in smoothing out the data during the holidays |
1:04 | FXstreet.com: Yes, Nick, you are right. The consensus published in our economic calendar is -480K |
1:04 | FXstreet.com: http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/ |
1:05 | Nick Nasad - CMS:
Forex markets have returned to a sense of normalcy in December and January, so we can anticipate them to behave more or less how we would expect to a release. If we see a number close to consensus, then the Dollar, though weaker, should not fall dramatically. Anything above 550K, we should see the Dollar sold off. Coming into the release we have already seen Dollar weakness, especially vs the majors, the Euro, Pound, and Yen. |
1:06 | [Comment From shariq] so this might be another bearish day for usd based on what NFP comes out with |
1:06 | Nick Nasad - CMS: shariq, you are correct., after a rebound in the Dollar to end the year, we are seeing new trends forming pointing to Dollar weaknes. Seeing two months in a row of half-a-million job losses is not good news for an economy. |
1:08 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Still, we have had some of the initial expectations priced in the past two sessions, so a number around 480K-520K may be priced in at this point. Of course you will see some people that traders that are on the sidelines prior to the release come in which can increase volatility |
1:09 | [Comment From A. Gajani] Mr. Nick If the numbers comes beyond 550K do you think the market should move around 1.4000 in short time? Thanks |
1:10 | Nick Nasad - CMS: I think that is a very solid resistance level. |
1:10 | Nick Nasad - CMS: as it was the main level broken prior to the end of the year. |
1:11 | Nick Nasad - CMS: it does lie above the 38.2% retracement level (1.388) of the uptrend we saw in December in the EUR/USD, so we may see some action there first in terms of our first resistance level. |
1:11 | FXstreet.com: Please, keep on posting your questions and comments. Nick Nasad will try to answer as many as possible. Nick is the author of the daily video about the main market news on CMS Forex site: |
1:12 | FXstreet.com: Daily video about the main market news |
1:12 | FXstreet.com: CMS Forex is also offering some other great research for forex traders: |
1:12 | FXstreet.com: CMS General Research page |
1:12 | FXstreet.com: Expert Analysis of Today's Market |
1:12 | FXstreet.com: Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead |
1:12 | FXstreet.com: Now it's time to know what do you expect for the NFP report today... Vote the poll!! |
1:12 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Yes, please do check out our resources, like our daily video recap and Forex Capsule (our economic calendar full of analysis) |
| 1:13 | What do you expect for the NFP today? NFP will recover any job ( 0% ) ( 71% ) ( 29% ) |
1:13 | [Comment From vivek] so more than likely the eurusd will rise to over 1.40 be it temporary and gbpusd may touch 1.55? |
1:15 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The Pound has been climbing very strongly this week, and I am not sure that we will see some consolidation now. There was very weak production data out of the UK which put our attention back on the weakness there. |
1:15 | Nick Nasad - CMS: a very poor report from teh US might see the pair test the 1.55 level, even today, with how the Pound has been gaining, but we have some very clear resistance avobe that. |
1:16 | [Comment From Dale] I don't think anyone should be trading the dollar on today's data. We know that the US is in a deep recession and the unemployment data will bad for a while. Everyone should concentrate on the long term problem that will face the dollar in the second half of this year. We have to understand that the dollar usually improves in the first three months of each year so it might improve on the short term but the long term will be down. |
1:16 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Dale, there are all kinds of traders, some more short term, and others that are long term. Usually trading a fundamental release carries alot of risk, and the market moves very fast. but to each their own.. |
1:17 | Nick Nasad - CMS: I think you have a point in that the Dollar looks weak in teh long term because of all the massive spending and printing of money that will happen in 2009 to try and get the US out of this recession. The extra supply of Dollars will weaken the currency going forward. |
1:17 | [Comment From Hamid] Hello Mr. Nick If NFP more than 700k usdjpy how many pip down?Thanks |
1:19 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Ouch, a figure of -700K will be very bearish,. the USD/JPY has cut down its gains from last week and is now entering a level where it consolidated around the holidays |
1:19 | Nick Nasad - CMS: We reached as low as 87.10 in Decvember, and a very poor data that sends stocks freefalling could have us there again in a short time.. |
1:19 | [Comment From Jorge] Mr Nasad, what is your thoughts about the yen?? |
1:20 | Nick Nasad - CMS: We have seen a return to risk aversion the past several sessions. stocks around the world and commodity prices have declined as we have had weak employment data come out of several regions. That benefits the Yen. |
1:21 | Nick Nasad - CMS: If we see a continuation of those sentiments, and watch today's US equities for clues, then teh Yen may continue to gain.. The yen is also doing a good job against the Aussie and Kiwi, as we saw a dramatic drop in oil prices a couple of days ago, following a test of $50 a barrel early in the week. |
1:22 | [Comment From vivek] what do you feel the outlook is for GBPUSD given the fact that its been on the upswing and trends show that the upswing is here to stay? what level do you think it may touch in the short term following the payrolls? |
1:23 | Nick Nasad - CMS: I dont know that its a given that the recent rise of the Pound is a completely new trend. If you look back since the start of November, we have a sideways trading range and we are coming to the top part of it currently |
1:24 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Key resistance is at 1.55 as someone mentioned before, with more resstiance slighly higher thatn that 1.57., It we break those levels we can see a continued rise, but everything is relative |
1:25 | Nick Nasad - CMS: traders may have been hoping for a quicker thatn expected recovery from the UK, but something like the industrial data seen today, and the fact that producer prices did not fall as fast as expected can halt that momentum. |
1:25 | Nick Nasad - CMS: So, I would watch what happens around 1.55 if we reach there as aresult of today's data. |
1:26 | FXstreet.com: One question now for all the traders gathered here today... Vote the poll |
| 1:26 | Wich pair will be hottest with NFP release? EURUSD ( 47% ) ( 23% ) ( 26% ) ( 5% ) |
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1:27 | [Comment From Guest] so basically if the numbers turn out to be below 525K we will see bearish for the usd and if the numbers turn the opposite way will see bulish? |
1:27 | FXstreet.com: 3 minutes for the release!!!! |
1:27 | Nick Nasad - CMS: I think you have this backwards, but that is my number yes. a drop of more than 525 will be bearish.. below that may have been priced in at this point, though those traders on teh sidelines may come in and increase volatility |
1:28 | [Comment From denny] Hi, please give me some ideas. how will u.s. recession influence its counterparties? |
1:29 | Nick Nasad - CMS: If i understand your question correctly, the demand for the Dollar is already fading in places like China which is a major purcahser of US debt aka Tresuries. if the us find it harder to finance its spending, it will be a poor indicator for the US dollar. |
1:29 | [Comment From sam] Hi, I sold euro/us at 1.33. Based on todays NFP results should I continue to hold my position? Thanks |
1:30 | FXstreet.com: -524k!!!! |
1:30 | Nick Nasad - CMS: sam, the 1.33 level was a key level of support, so it was not the best place to sell. where you get out of a position should be based on your trading plan |
1:30 | Nick Nasad - CMS: ok, lets see how the markets react. |
1:31 | FXstreet.com: 7.2% for unemployment |
1:31 | FXstreet.com: CMS Forex, today’s Sponsor also produces expert analysis, market research and daily market news coverage with videos and reports. Browse the following URLs to learn and take profit from their expertise. |
1:31 | FXstreet.com: Daily video about the main market news |
1:31 | FXstreet.com: Expert Analysis of Today's Market |
1:32 | Nick Nasad - CMS: We are seeing some back and forth currently |
1:32 | FXstreet.com: *DEC CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: -524K -525KE; CHANGE IN MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS: -149K -100KE- Prior Nov Nonfarm revised Lower from -533K to -584K- Prior Nov Manufacturing revised from -85K to -104K |
1:32 | FXstreet.com: *DEC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 7.2% 7.0%E- Prior revised from 6.7% to 6.8%- last 7.0% reading in unemply rate was Jun 1993 |
1:32 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the unemp[loyment rate climbed higher than expected |
1:33 | FXstreet.com: Nick, please, could you give us your opinion about what direction is the market taken now? |
1:33 | Nick Nasad - CMS: but still i think this report is in line with expectations, and should help the Dollar |
1:33 | Nick Nasad - CMS: we are seeing a rise in the USD/JPY |
1:34 | Nick Nasad - CMS: while the Euro and Pound are battling back and forth. In a 5 minute candle teh GBP/USD set up a head and shoulders and is not falling in favor of the Dolalr |
1:34 | Nick Nasad - CMS: no direction yet for EUR/USD.. |
1:35 | [Comment From vivek] how do you think the markets will react...numbers wise for gbpusd and eurusd |
1:36 | Nick Nasad - CMS: I was sensing a bit of a reverasal in teh GBP/USD, with the Dollar retracing some of its losses, but still, the action we see right now mayb be a clear out.. |
1:37 | Nick Nasad - CMS: for the EUR/USD the pair bounced off the recent upward sloping trendline.. connecting the lows from Tuesday and yesterday. |
1:37 | Nick Nasad - CMS: I sense we might see some sideways trading as those that were pessimistic about the jobs report battle with those that may have though it would come in line with expectations.. |
1:38 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Oh, Euro jumped a bit but we are still seeing choppy trading with no clear direction.. most of the time the first 5 mintues will be the most volatile |
1:38 | Nick Nasad - CMS: if we had a new direction. |
1:38 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the USD/CAD broke its recent high and is now at 1.19 |
1:39 | [Comment From i4x] some very nice moves are taking place, i went short gbpjpy... Nick Nasad do you cover the gbpjpy ? |
1:40 | Nick Nasad - CMS: If you went short at short term resistance, near 140, that could be a good level.. i think the pound strength we have seen this week needs to have a correction. |
1:40 | Nick Nasad - CMS: if stocks in the US react favorably to the jobs data, as it came in line with expecations without a big negative surpris, we can see a move back to 138 in the short term as we may see a sideways range forming. |
1:41 | Nick Nasad - CMS: a fibonacci retracement study of the recent rise in the GBP/JPY shows the recent support at 38.2%.. |
1:41 | Nick Nasad - CMS: EUR/USD is falling now |
1:42 | Nick Nasad - CMS: seems like the Dollar bulls may have wrested control |
1:42 | Nick Nasad - CMS: but again we are seeing some choppy conditions |
1:42 | [Comment From denny] how long do you think the GBP strength will last? |
1:43 | Nick Nasad - CMS: I think there may have been some inflated expecations about the UK economy perhaps recovering faster than expected.., we also saw some positive reaction to the Bank of England's plan to increase bank lending earlier in the week. |
1:44 | Nick Nasad - CMS: but from look at the fundamentals (and at heart i follow fundamentals) i did not see a logical reason for the strenght, except as a correction of recent Pound weakness, in the EUR/GBP especially |
1:44 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the Pound seems to be playing off technical factors |
1:45 | Nick Nasad - CMS: as against the USD the 1.44 level was a strong level of support that helped push the pair back into its sideways range that has been established since the start of November |
1:45 | Nick Nasad - CMS: ok, so the EUR/USD is now at the upward sloping trendine i mentioned earlier. |
1:45 | Nick Nasad - CMS: and broke it.. |
1:46 | Nick Nasad - CMS: but then came back up from 1.3650.. |
1:46 | Nick Nasad - CMS: which was a retest of the line, and now we are seeing a sustained move down. |
1:46 | Nick Nasad - CMS: yep, that was the signal there for many traders to sell the pair. |
1:47 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Dollar bulls are in control now |
1:47 | [Comment From wiper] Any direction for the eur/usd? |
1:47 | Nick Nasad - CMS: i think you are seeing it now.. |
1:48 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The Dollar is also making gains against the Pound and Loonie |
1:49 | Nick Nasad - CMS: It took some time, but the Dollar strenth i was expecting from a release that was in line with expectations is materializing. |
1:49 | [Comment From vivek] do you think its worth goin in buying gbp against usd and eur against usd now? |
1:49 | Nick Nasad - CMS: dont try and catch a falling knife, just because you see prices coming down alot.. you should enter trades based on a trading plan. |
1:50 | Nick Nasad - CMS: I would like to point you guys to our Power Trading Course where you can learn to create a trading plan. |
1:50 | Nick Nasad - CMS: http://www.cmsfx.com/en/forex-education/forex-webinars/ |
1:51 | [Comment From Dusan] Nick, it seems that $ is going up vers. € after NFP - currently at 1,36. What is your opinion - what level can $ reach vers. € before ECB meeting next Thursday? |
1:51 | Nick Nasad - CMS: some clear visual levels of support are 1.3550, and then 1.34 |
1:52 | Nick Nasad - CMS: we are seeing a bit of a pull back from our falls in the Euro and POund |
1:52 | Nick Nasad - CMS: this represents the traders who like vivek, may sense an opprtunity to go long on this pair. |
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1:53 | Nick Nasad - CMS: and there may be validity in that bet, but it should be backed up by some technical setups prior and not just a reaction to the stepp price fall we have seen just now. |
1:54 | [Comment From Henrique] Do y think the $ will keep going up all day? or theres is a strong support ahead? |
1:55 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Henrique, it depends on how US stocks react to the news at this point, I sense we may see some back and forth action still., |
1:56 | Nick Nasad - CMS: being that today is a Friday, you always have to factor in some squaring of positions prior to the weekend as well. since the number was not a surprise in either direction, it comes down to how market particiapants now digest the data. that is open to interpretation. |
1:57 | Nick Nasad - CMS: personally, though the drop in employment was sharp, the fact that the situation did not deteriorate further than it did in november, i will take as a positive sign. I think we will see some poor jobs reports ahead, but most of the firings probably occured in teh 4th quarter |
1:58 | Nick Nasad - CMS: of course, things can change dramatically, and the first half of 2009 will not be full of good news for the US economy by any stretch of the imaginiation. |
1:58 | Nick Nasad - CMS: when someone will take half a million job losses as a positive sign.. you know the US is going through a very difficult period. |
1:58 | [Comment From Henrique] We have to wait for the US martkets to see whats going on than |
1:59 | Nick Nasad - CMS: with no more releases ahead, we have to see how equities respond to the news. |
1:59 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the USD/JPY is higher following the news |
2:00 | Nick Nasad - CMS: so any kind of rally in US stocks will probably be dollar positive in that pair.. |
2:00 | Nick Nasad - CMS: so we are still hovering near 1.36 in the EUR/USD |
2:00 | Nick Nasad - CMS: but a more clear level of support is 1.3550, as this was yesterday's low. |
2:02 | FXstreet.com: Time to wrap-up this Live Coverage today |
2:02 | Nick Nasad - CMS: so, we had a pretty strong reaction of 150 pips in EUR/USD |
2:03 | FXstreet.com: So Nick, what would be your final words, any advice for traders? |
2:03 | Nick Nasad - CMS: and the break of a short term line of support, so lets see if that means the start of some dollar strenth in the sessions ahead. |
2:03 | Nick Nasad - CMS: oh., make that 200 pips now.., and we reached 1.355 |
2:04 | Nick Nasad - CMS: thank you very much for coming to our live coverage, and fxstreet for having me on again. |
2:05 | FXstreet.com: Thanks to you Nick for yor time and for sharing your expertise with us today! |
2:05 | FXstreet.com: I would like to specially thank CMS Forex, today’s sponsor, for their support. Use these links to follow up about today’s main market news. Open a live account with CMS with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now. |
2:05 | Nick Nasad - CMS: http://www.cmsfx.com/rss/daily-videos.xml |
2:05 | FXstreet.com: Daily video about the main market news |
2:05 | FXstreet.com: Expert Analysis of Today's Market |
2:05 | Nick Nasad - CMS: One last thing, if you want to subscribe to our rss of our daily videos, you can find that here... http://www.cmsfx.com/rss/daily-videos.xml |
2:06 | Nick Nasad - CMS: thanks you all again, and happy trading out there today. |
2:07 | Nick Nasad - CMS: goodbye~ |
2:09 | FXstreet.com: Thanks Nick. We will have Nick with us again for the FED live coverage, the next 28th |
2:10 | FXstreet.com: We have more events and news coverage right now on FXstreet.com. Keep posted of the Forex Market news on our homepage or join Wayne McDonell in the Trade Non-Farm Payrolls Live webinar: |
2:10 | FXstreet.com: Bye!! |
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