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BoE and ECB Interest Rates Decision Live Coverage with Valeria Bednarik

(02/05/2009)
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11:48

FXstreet.com: Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's BoE Interest Rates Decision Live Coverage will start in 10 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Valeria Bednarik who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. She will be giving us a direct picture fo the market status.

11:48

FXstreet.com: Valeria Bednarik has been an active Forex trader for the last 3 years, specializing in the International Foreign Exchange Market. She also graduates in the Universidad Catolica del Salvador, in Argentina, as a Public Account, specializing in financials and cost managements. She currently manages an important clients portfolio for IFX Markets, Boston and is senior trader manager at Molfx-Management; besides she works training new traders with Trader College LLC specializing in technical analysis, for the English speaking community.

11:49

FXstreet.com: The BoE is widely expected to cut the ongoing interest rates by 50bps to 1.00% that would be the lowest rate in the bank's history since it was establish in 1869. we have seen a deterioating economic situation where decreasing GDP and surging jobless claims are still fresh in our minds. Today we have to pay close attention whether or not selling pressure on the Pound will emerge again. Regarding to the ECB, the market forecast the ECB to hold the ongoing interest rate unchanged at 2.00%. Yesterday the EUR/USD was sharply sold off at 1.3070 to support at 1.2790. Currently the pair is moving sideways above 1.2800 level, in a range of 100 pips. It will be important to determine how the ECB considers the current economic situation if the ECB holds the key rate unchaged. A hawkish view would boost up the EUR/USD towards the resistance 1.3070 level, on the hand, a dovish view would drag the pair down below 1.2700 level. Trichet speech is scheduled at 13:30GMT.

11:50

Valeria Bednarik: Hi everybody and welcome!

11:50

[Comment From aea]
hi

11:51

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11:51

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11:51

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11:51

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11:51

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11:51

Valeria Bednarik:

True waht moderator says: British economy is expected to contract more tha a 3% during this year. Last two rate cuts gave us some huge movements to the upside in Gbp, of around 200 pips.. only to fall harder from there in the next days.

11:52

[Comment From Neil]
Hi

11:53

FXstreet.com: hi everybody,, let me know your opinion about the BoE decision... Meawhile voting the vole.. let me also introduce Valerica's blog

11:53

Will the BoE cut the bench mark interest rate?
Yes, the BoE will cut it by 50bps to 1.00%.

( 66% )

Yes the BoE will cut it by 75bps to 0.75%.

( 24% )

Yes, on an aggressive cut it by 100bps.

( 3% )

No, the BoE will rather hold the ongoing rate.

( 7% )

No, the BoE will ratehr rise it by 25bps.

( 0% )

11:53

FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

11:54

[Comment From mark storey]
Valeria as the BOE is a done deal should we be intrested ECB more than the BOE

11:54

[Comment From Andrew]
Hello, thanks for covering this.

11:55

[Comment From CVJ]
Hi Val! ..Great to see you again!... after talking to you two minutes ago... :-) I thought I would stop in for a visit!...

11:55

Valeria Bednarik: Hi Mark! I don't think so. Gbp will probably react with huge movements despite the done deal.

11:55

Valeria Bednarik: But we will have to wait a couple hours to see it settle down, and decide if really define a trend from there

11:55

Valeria Bednarik: Hi Andrew and Tks!

11:56

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi CVJ! a pleasure to have you here

11:56

[Comment From forrex gump]
hi, do you think Britain should adopt euro?

11:56

Valeria Bednarik: I heard rumors about that, coming from Italy. yet can't see it in this global crisis we are living

11:57

FXstreet.com: 2minutes to go

11:57

[Comment From Guest]
hi Val, can you give the likely scenario if the boe cut by 50 or more

11:58

Valeria Bednarik: Probably huge spikes at the beginning like previous months but if i can be a 100% sure about what will happen.. be sure i won't be here, but trading my last cent. I'm a technical trader

11:58

[Comment From naren]
hi sam

11:58

Valeria Bednarik:

key points for GBP will be to the upside, 1.4580 zone. To the downside 1.4430/40

11:59

[Comment From mafacifa]
2 minutes to annoucement?

11:59

Valeria Bednarik: yes 1 minute now

11:59

FXstreet.com: 1 minute to go!

11:59

[Comment From CVJ]
Val... with both of us in agreement that our .50bps Cut is, indeed, "Priced In"...it will be interesting to see the immediate "Contrarian" move in Pound strength with the Institutional Entities re-positioning....as we are still largely "out of favor" with Pound sentiment...

11:59

Valeria Bednarik: Exactly CVJ!

12:00

FXstreet.com: 50 bps cut!

12:00

Valeria Bednarik: as expected a 0.50% cut!

12:00

FXstreet.com: 50 points to 1.00%

12:01

Valeria Bednarik: no much of a reactiob yet.. but 1.00% is really low... the lowest in decades, this should not make Gbp more atractive to investors, yet could help general economy

12:01

Valeria Bednarik: what will weight more in the long term?

12:02

[Comment From Neil]
We're not far from yesterdays Cable high, do you think it ill carry on to 1.4650+

12:02

Valeria Bednarik: Yes we have a congestion zone around 1.4580... a clear break above, will probably trigger an upside interesting rally

12:02

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12:03

[Comment From Aldo Leon]
Good Morning Val, do you think 1.54 is in the medium term for GBP? some experts pointed yesterday that UK alreasy touch the bottom....

12:03

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12:03

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12:03

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12:03

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12:04

Valeria Bednarik: Hi Aldo, I'm not sure the bottom has already been seen. The 1.50 zone will be a tough resistance area still this bullish we are seeing are in longer term charts, just corrections.

12:04

[Comment From PS]
do you think EUR will outperfrom GBP because of the rate difference?

12:05

Valeria Bednarik: Good question! what i think? Euro is in worse shape than Gbp

12:05

FXstreet.com: Here please take a look at the official note from the BoE website.
www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/news/2009/008.htm

12:06

Valeria Bednarik: in the short term, could be but looking longer not probable for me

12:06

Valeria Bednarik: There we have GBP in the mnentioned zone, and breaking up

12:06

Valeria Bednarik: and pushing Europeans with her

12:06

[Comment From mark storey]
other than cable going straight down then straight up not very exiting

12:06

FXstreet.com: 50 bps to 1.00% that is the lowest Interest rate since the BoE was established in 1869.

12:07

Valeria Bednarik: As told you at the beginning, remember what happened these last months: some upside huge movements.. and then fall apart

12:08

Valeria Bednarik: Gbp still unable to clearly break above the congestion zone, as long as the 1.4530 zone holds, the chances for me, remain to the upside.

12:08

[Comment From PS]
you expect GBP turning bullish in the near term?

12:08

Valeria Bednarik: Yes I do. just short term at least

12:08

[Comment From mark storey]
the Minutes should be intresting Valeria ?!

12:09

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12:09

Valeria Bednarik: What minutes do you mean? Gbp? in 2 weeks Eurozone? no doubts. Trichet's always interesting.

12:09

[Comment From MIKE]
I SEE NO WAY FOR BOTH GBP..EUR BUT DOWNWARD AGAINST THE GREENBACK

12:10

Valeria Bednarik: Hi ,Mike! well, they have been falling apart heavily from the maximums already, and we know there are no straight one direction moves in here. Long or short term, market moves with corrections i the midle

12:11

Valeria Bednarik: In the longer term, Euro is more clearly bearish for me than Gbp

12:11

[Comment From mark storey]
BOE firstly but yes Valeria Trichet's always intresting

12:11

Valeria Bednarik: Boe Minutes will be published in two weeks I believe... not now

12:11

Valeria Bednarik: Correct me if I'm wrong

12:13

Valeria Bednarik: Gbp is above the maximums.. and moving higher as expected, yet not with the high speed steam I was expecting

12:13

Valeria Bednarik: 1.4700 could be a probable target if continues.

12:13

[Comment From PS]
do you think EUR will rally after the rate announcement?

12:14

Valeria Bednarik: I expect rallies yes, and up down not clear movements during Trichet speach

12:14

[Comment From boojum]
valeria: why are you bearish on the euro at this point?

12:15

FXstreet.com: Here you can also read CVJ's maket view point considering the BoE decision. http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/2009/02/04/the-boe-and-the-queen-will-she-keep-up-her-pace/

12:16

Valeria Bednarik: Boojum Euro zone is the more punished with this global recession and their central bank is still not able to recog the recession, the deflation, and all the huge issues they are having.

12:16

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12:17

Valeria Bednarik: Longer term charts remain quite bearish at least for me. to change the longer term perspective, the pair will have to rise a good nunber of cents

12:17

[Comment From Varun Bisht]
Is ECB going to cut rates too ??????

12:18

Valeria Bednarik: Last Minutes in Europe suggest they won't so, today we are not expecting a rate cut in Europe, as they stated any further decision will be taken on March

12:18

Valeria Bednarik: Ok, while other majors settle down, Gbp continues pushing higher to the 1.4700 zone.

12:18

[Comment From CVJ]
Indeed, Val!...as we have to account for immediate re-positioning of Major Entities here...who are looking to be in concert with overall Pound "Sentiment" to sell into strtength...You are absolutely correct here!!! ...the "Contrarian" strength we are seeing is precisely this...not because the Pound Itself is iherently strong...

12:19

Valeria Bednarik: that's the whole point here. Tks CVJ!

12:19

[Comment From Guest]
will the GBP/USD pull back?

12:19

Valeria Bednarik: Probably but not yet

12:20

[Comment From Dean]
Any predictions on what might happen with the eur gbp over the next couple of hours?

12:20

Valeria Bednarik: Hi Dean! no ofenses... but I'm just a technical trader not a fortune teller.. Euro Gbp is close to a key level @ 0.8800 a huge weekly Fibo

12:21

Valeria Bednarik: already tested some times... seems ready to break yet, we will need to see a daily candle at least opening under it to consider more bearish pressure there

12:22

Valeria Bednarik: About Gbp, only under 1.4605 we could see a short term come back to 1.4550 or so

12:22

[Comment From Doko]
Ok Valeria So USA is PRINTING DOLLARS like no tomorrow but you are bearish on EUR ?

12:22

FXstreet.com: Please also take a look at the upcoming news at www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx

12:23

Valeria Bednarik: Doko, you are right... that will mean inflation in the longer term.. and from there to rate rises one step

12:24

Valeria Bednarik:

world wide economy is messed up. Is not the strongest who will win, only the less weak.

12:24

Valeria Bednarik: Besides.. dollar has been, is and will be

12:25

Valeria Bednarik: the reference of world economy. Do you see half the world changing there reserves to Yenes? or the gold, or oil quoting in pounds?

12:25

Valeria Bednarik: Could happen of course.. not in my life time i believe

12:25

[Comment From Mudassar]
will EUR/USD break the level of 1.2900 during Trihet speech

12:25

Valeria Bednarik: Let' see first what they decide about rates!

12:26

[Comment From Neil]
I was targetting 1.4650 from earlier today, so I'm out and a happy bunny !!

12:26

Valeria Bednarik: Good for you! Now is fighting the 1.4600 level. Let's see if it holds

12:26

[Comment From Guest]
€/gbp just broke down

12:27

Valeria Bednarik: Sorry, when I mean broke, I don't mean a bunch of pips, but certainly need extra confirmation, as I said, a daily candle opening under or so

12:27

[Comment From pantel]
what do u think of euro technical level ?

12:27

Valeria Bednarik: 1.3030 to the upside 1.2700 to the downside

12:28

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12:29

[Comment From Guest]
I'm new trader... i'm losing money on GBP/USD rising should i get out of it or wait for the pull to cut losses?

12:29

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12:30

Valeria Bednarik: try to cut your losses.. for now, no big reaction, yet if pass max you shoud exit I believe

12:30

Valeria Bednarik: small reversion pattern in Gbp in 15 minutes charts

12:30

Valeria Bednarik: Meanwhile let me tell you

12:31

Valeria Bednarik: The Fed printing money is a moot point...the printing presses can roll all they want, as Risk Aversion is still the catalyst here...and has been for 7 months. Look further out to your larger charts..... ant Euro appreciation has been stopped by market sentiment time and time again.

12:32

Valeria Bednarik: still 15 minutes to ECB decision and Euro back where it was before the Boe's anouncement

12:32

[Comment From maro]
wat do u think about EUR/USD cos its already very trendy

12:32

FXstreet.com:

ECB rate decision will be leased in 15 minutes... let me know about your opinion on it... please let's vote the poll!..

12:32

Will the ECB low the bench mark interest rate?
Yes, the ECB will cut it by 25bps

( 21% )

Yes, the ECB will cut it by 50bps

( 12% )

Yes, on an aggressive cut it by moe than 75bps.

( 3% )

No, the ECB will rather hold the ongoing rate.

( 62% )

No, the ECB will rather hike it by 25bps

( 2% )

12:33

Valeria Bednarik: Hi Maro! wich time frame you mean? and trendy to where? take a look at daily charts, and tell me what you see there

12:33

[Comment From Marc]
Hello

12:34

[Comment From anatta]
i have a gbjpy short @126 area with no stop loss. it's about 1.5X my account capital. do you think i'm safe?

12:35

Valeria Bednarik: No anatta, i don't think you are really, but of course it depends on how many of your capital is on the trade. If Gbp manages to close day above the 1.4700 zone, medium term perspectives could take it even to 1.50

12:35

Valeria Bednarik: Yet look at GBP... is ready to correct to the downside, at least in the short term

12:36

Valeria Bednarik: Still we have ECB noise in between

12:36

[Comment From Marc]
Why on earth is the pound behaving like this given its bleak outlook. That rally was totally unexpected.

12:37

Valeria Bednarik: Hi Marc! read previous comments about that!

12:37

[Comment From CAD]
what are the techenical levels on the GBPCHF. Do you think it is a good play to catch an upside of GBP

12:38

FXstreet.com: 7 minutes to go...

12:38

Valeria Bednarik: Hi Cad! the pair is quite bullish in dauly charts, and seems a good idea, although is not a pair I watch a lot. Let me take a good look at it later

12:38

[Comment From a.oomer]
can cable touch all time low against dollar 1.03

12:39

Valeria Bednarik: Hi Oomer! I could not even imagine that at this moment. The most cable can fall, under 1.3500 seen past month is somewhere around 1.30

12:39

[Comment From vinesh]
In my opinion we may see spikes in eur during speech and then drop from therre

12:39

Valeria Bednarik: Hi vinesh! yes more or less what I am expecting as long as 1.3030 holds the upside

12:40

Valeria Bednarik: CAD! to long that pair, GBP CHF maybe you shoud wait a downside corrrection: seems a bit to late from here

12:40

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12:40

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12:40

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12:41

[Comment From pankaj]
whats going to happen to EUR?

12:41

FXstreet.com: 4 minutes to go

12:41

Valeria Bednarik:

I'm expecting some up down wide choppy movements and then a fall.

12:41

[Comment From Roberto]
Hi Valeria. I'm from Argentina and I'm impressed at your comments. Congratulations !!!

12:42

Valeria Bednarik: Tks! really tks Roberto

12:42

[Comment From PS]
one technical question....how many pips do you usually set for stop loss?

12:42

Valeria Bednarik: PS that will depend on the time frame I'm trading.. 15 mintes charts 15/20 pips... daily charts maybe @ 100 pips

12:43

FXstreet.com: 2 minutes to go

12:43

[Comment From Priyank]
Hi Valeria, what do you think about Gold then? Where do you expect it to be in the next couple of months?

12:43

Valeria Bednarik: i will ask my friend CVJ to answer you that! he is the speciallist in gold and oil!

12:44

FXstreet.com: 1 minute to go!!!!

12:44

Valeria Bednarik: Menawhile Gbp is unable to move up.. let's see what ECB brings and if it can drag it

12:45

[Comment From Guest]
which time frame do u usually trade 4 intraday trading, ifi may ask!

12:45

FXstreet.com: unchanged!!! at 2.00%

12:45

Valeria Bednarik:

15 minutes 1 hour 4 hours

12:46

Valeria Bednarik: ok here we are, Watch Euro levels 1.2910 and 1.2830 as inmediate supp and ress

12:46

FXstreet.com: the ECB has decided to hold the ongoing interest rate unchanged at 2.00%

12:46

Valeria Bednarik: No reaction yet.. rates unchanged.. market will probably wait for Trichet speach

12:47

[Comment From Guest]
will euro fall down now?

12:48

Valeria Bednarik: seems falling a bit, yet not much of a reaction... unde 1.2830 could move close to 1.2800

12:48

Valeria Bednarik: and 1.2800 has been pretty tough these last days..

12:48

Valeria Bednarik: so a clear break under, maybe around 1.2780 could trigger some bearish there

12:48

[Comment From Guest]
wats da next level if it EU breaks .2910?

12:49

Valeria Bednarik: intermediate 1.2960 zone most likely 1.3030

12:49

[Comment From FC]
will the pound rise further?

12:49

Valeria Bednarik: seems a bit exhausted to do so. under 1.4580 less likely

12:49

[Comment From Guest]
how did u get the 1.2830 support level?

12:50

FXstreet.com: EUR/USD is sliding.

12:50

Valeria Bednarik: I'm planning to made an open webinar of supp and res next monday here... and teach the ways I determinate that zones

12:50

Valeria Bednarik: You are now, formaly invited!

12:50

[Comment From Jon]
Is there any way to view the speech live?

12:50

Valeria Bednarik: Yes, at ECB home page

12:51

[Comment From Aldo Leon]
if the decision from the ECCB send the EUR lower then the pressure from EURGBP could send the GBP up???

12:51

FXstreet.com: Trichet speech is scheduled at 13:30GMT.Trichet speech is scheduled at 13:30GMT.

12:51

Valeria Bednarik: No aldo, I don't think so

12:52

[Comment From Guest]
wasn't pound meant to fall with interest rate cuts today? why has it gone up?

12:52

Valeria Bednarik: You can see previous comments about that

12:52

Valeria Bednarik: So! here we are... Euro slowly falling down

12:52

[Comment From vinesh]
eu may slide down to yesterday's low and then spike up for the speech and then down again

12:53

Valeria Bednarik: Yes Vinesh, exactly what we are talking about, but well, seems we will have to wait for the speach

12:53

[Comment From Scott]
webcast of Press Conference http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html

12:53

Valeria Bednarik: Tks Scott!

12:54

FXstreet.com: Here you can check the official ECB press note
www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2009/html/pr090205.en.html

12:54

[Comment From PS]
i have positions in long eurgbp, it broke the 0.8800 resis....any recommendations?

12:55

Valeria Bednarik: PS if long term positions, you will have to wait and see how day ends. If short term ones.. try to minimize your risk

12:55

[Comment From mr cable]
trichet might turn out to be the smartest at the end. somehting to think about....

12:56

Valeria Bednarik: Really think that? I totally disgree but well what a boring world it could be if we all thing alike!

12:56

[Comment From Zakry Malaysia]
should euro down to 1.2720?

12:57

Valeria Bednarik: If confirms under 1.2780 zone probably

12:57

[Comment From ted]
do you think trichet's speech will cause a big fluctuation in the market?

12:57

Valeria Bednarik: Yes Ted, usually does

12:57

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12:58

[Comment From vinesh]
Valerie, how imp are previous day's highs and lows and when does the market usually cut those levels i.e UK session, Asian Session or NY session

12:58

Valeria Bednarik: Vinesh, you are also invited to the webinar about that i will perfrom on Monday.

12:59

Valeria Bednarik: For me they are quite important no doubts

12:59

[Comment From FC]
would euro be a good buy below 1.28

1:00	Valeria Bednarik: Not for me. no trading during this messy moments! market has been here and will be here for the next decades. i rather wait for technical confirmations: if rebound on 1.2800 probably bullish if breaks under, bearish

1:00	[Comment From af_rios] euro important support 1.2780?

1:00	Valeria Bednarik: yes exactly.

1:01	[Comment From mickey] hi valery i am long in gbp usd. what do you think should i stay in or wait till 1.47?

1:02	Valeria Bednarik: If actual profit is good, take it! I don't like the noisy spikes this fundamentals bring

1:02	Valeria Bednarik: but is just me!

1:04	Valeria Bednarik: While Euro is ready to test the key 1.2800 level, Gbp is stucked to 1.4600

1:04	[Comment From MAC] Plz confirm the timings of webiner next monday. I am interested

1:04	Valeria Bednarik: We will ask moderator! I believe is around 12:00 GMT

1:05	[Comment From cebg] Hi Valeria, do you think ECB behind the curve ?

1:05	Valeria Bednarik: Sorry, really CEBG, english is not my native language.. and cannot understadn what behind the curve means.. can you help me with that?

1:06	[Comment From mr cable] interesting formation on cable 30 m chart. 4610 should cap if we want to move lower

1:06	Valeria Bednarik: yes, small charts present a small triangel up here. If breaks above could mean continuation in the pair

1:07	Valeria Bednarik: Webinar time is ok! Monday 12 GMT !

1:07	[Comment From dedi from indonesia] hi valery. what do u think about Trichet speech in the 13.30. Euro down or up.

1:07	Valeria Bednarik: Euro up and down, finally down

1:07	[Comment From CVJ] Val...concerning Priyank's Query... Gold has pulled back a little bit of late ..but looking out it is deeply bullish as we still have massive global "safe-haven" status. When there is Risk Aversion, we always see a "flight to quality" into Gold...

1:08	Valeria Bednarik: here we have CVJ answer about gold, really tks!

1:08	[Comment From Guest] to be behind the curve -- to be late in making decisions

1:09	Valeria Bednarik: thanks for the translation! yes in fact I think so. They should have reacted long ago.. with the economy falling, and the speaches about "inflation under control" ignoring growth...now sort of Euro paying the price.

1:10	[Comment From mr cable] eurgbp broke thru the imokuchi cloud. next suppert 8730 for those following the Ichi. technicals

1:10	Valeria Bednarik: Tks Mr Cable for sharing your views!

1:10	[Comment From Guest] what is your recommendations for euro/usd ?

1:11	Valeria Bednarik: Stay away of the market till the speach is over. Then take your decisions. is just 1 hour in 30 days..

1:11	[Comment From Guest] any chance the GBP USD will go back down to 1.4500 within the next couple of hours or days? Or should I cut my losses now?

1:11	Valeria Bednarik: Need to clearly move under 1.4550/60 zone to do that

1:11	[Comment From bali] valeria.. what do you think about euryen

1:13	Valeria Bednarik: Bali, need to take a food look at the chart, yet no clear definitions in pairs related to Yen, due to the time of the year: we are close to the fiscal year end, and Yen tends to apreciate and trade in smaller ranges.. Then beging falling by ends of March

1:14	Valeria Bednarik: Bigger charts there are urging for an upside correction, yet not time already.

1:15	[Comment From taha] what is your recommendations for euro/usd ?

1:16	FXstreet.com: Here we have Live economi Calender ..Please check the following events. We have Big NFP tomorrow.www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

1:16	Valeria Bednarik: As said before.. wait for the speach to be over.

1:17	[Comment From Nitish] Hello Mr.Valeria...How r u ??? When do u think the american markets will start improving ? and what are your 2009 outlooks for India ??

1:18	Valeria Bednarik: Nitish! Will take at least the first half of this year to see some improvement in markets. And my apologizes I don't have India outlooks... The world is too big just for me.

1:18	[Comment From Guest] Valerie, are you watching the pair CAD/USD? If so, what is your take on that?

1:19	FXstreet.com: I would like to remind you that today's Live Coverage is being released thanks to our Sponsor CMS Forex

1:19

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1:20	Valeria Bednarik: I watch all market yet see 4 hours charts we have a good base double floor around 1.2225? above 1.2400 (quick analysis here sorry) the pair can move to the upside. Yet! the pair is closely attached to OIL

1:21	Valeria Bednarik: Oil is quoting around 40 dollars a barrell.. can't see it falling that much more.. and the rise again.. longer term, CAD could regain bullsih momentum

1:21	[Comment From ian pearson] guest id stick with gbp/usd sell as its approaching the top of falling channel on daily chart

1:21	Valeria Bednarik: Fair enough Ian! it is

1:21	[Comment From mr cable] the longer cable is resilient to fall, the less likely it will.

1:22	Valeria Bednarik: Good point there also Mr Cable

1:22	[Comment From DoKO] Valeria do you know that ECB mandate is ONLY to keep integrity of EUR as MONEY ! And can you expl. how printing money will help the economy ? FED already are at 0% SO..... is America doing WELL !

1:23	Valeria Bednarik: Doko... America is not doing well. But nobody is doing well my friend.

1:24	Valeria Bednarik: I'm not supporting Obama here... just making some technical analysis!!!

1:25	Valeria Bednarik: I don't really care about fundamentals, never did! I'm just a technical trader and share with you all what I can see..you of course can agree or disagree.

1:25	[Comment From Teejay] What do you think of usd/chf?

1:27	Valeria Bednarik: Hi Teejay, I thing the pair is pushing to break bullish, yet hanging in rage: if manages to break above this past week maximum at 1.1714 or so, we will see it aproaching to 1.18 very soon, and above there, I expect more bullish to come

1:27	[Comment From mr cable] i loved what you wrote today. every sentence is 20 pips up or down on trichet. :)

1:27	Valeria Bednarik: tks Mr Cable.. yet is true...

1:27	[Comment From Mudassar Ch] I want to have a short term eur/usd buy trade for 40/50 pips can u recomend me the level plz

1:28	Valeria Bednarik: Mudassar, under 1.2780 or above 1.2910 if the pair moves strongly enough in either direction

1:28	[Comment From vinesh] Valeria, last time during and after speech eur rallied to 1.33 level even after Tricehet's comments about economic slump in the euro area why would this time be any different?

1:30	Valeria Bednarik: For me, could be different because I see the pair under a heavy selling pressure. Each time, each trading day is different see? risk aversion is now rulling market... in a word FEAR.

1:30	Valeria Bednarik: Could pay a bit more rates yes, but will their economy hold? Take a look at today's industrial report in Germany... worser and worser day after day

1:31	[Comment From aram] Nitish Valeria is female not MALE

1:31	Valeria Bednarik: It's ok Aram.. no problem but tks!

1:31	Valeria Bednarik: Trichet already started i guess!

1:32	[Comment From Guest] Hello Valeria, got any hint on GBP/CHF ?

1:32	Valeria Bednarik: Vinesh also could be different because of the quantitative easing Trichey will have to contend with...the BoE overall is facing reality and being more dovish than previously....

1:32	Valeria Bednarik: sorry Trichet will start in 12 minutes or so.

1:33	Valeria Bednarik: About GBP/Chf already comment: bullish perspective, yet late to get into wait for some bearish correction there if you attempt longs

1:33	[Comment From Nitish] U regularly come online ??? i am new in forex market.....so can i get your email ?? can u help me in understanding the forex market ??

1:33	Valeria Bednarik: Nitish! I have a daily live blog!

1:34	Valeria Bednarik: I post there all day long.. when i'm not trading of course.. and give some webinars here at Fxstreet.com

1:35	[Comment From Guest] Valeria is it a good idea 2 short da EU here?

1:35	Valeria Bednarik: Euro is testing the 1.2780 zone, yet not a good idea FOR ME until Trichet is over.

1:35	FXstreet.com: Please follow up Valeria-s Blog at blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/

1:36	[Comment From Guest] hi CVJ, where do you think Gold is heading in the coming months?

1:36	[Comment From Guest] when is The press conf for ECB?

1:36	Valeria Bednarik: in 10 minutes

1:36	[Comment From Marc] Tell the know it alls that America is doing really bad but the reason for dollar strength might just perhaps be risk aversion

1:37	Valeria Bednarik: tks Marc! already done

1:37	Valeria Bednarik: There are hundreds of questions.. i can't read them all, yet i'm trying! my apologizes if one don't pass

1:37	[Comment From Guest] I believe what DoKo is saying is that the very idea to build strong economy on ailing currency is fallacious! in other words -- debasing the national currency will not help economy but exacerbate the malady.

1:38	Valeria Bednarik: ok you could be right.. yet euro is falling.

1:38	Valeria Bednarik: if pass under 1.2700 will continue no doubts for me

1:39	[Comment From mr cable] just a bit of motivational talk here: COMEONE CABLE TANK!!!!

1:39	FXstreet.com: Trichet speech has begun,,, up coming comments are : He stated that Level Of Uncertainty Still Exceptionally High

1:39	Valeria Bednarik: Well it is aproaching to the 1.4550/60 zone

1:39	Valeria Bednarik: under it 1.4500 will be a probable next target

1:39	[Comment From dedi from indonesia] tx valeria i take profit 20 pipis in eur/usd

1:40	Valeria Bednarik: well done!

1:40	[Comment From Teejay] Val you are doing a great job, God bless you. I always bank on your comment/analysis before I enter the market

1:40	FXstreet.com: EU conomy is in a downside risk

1:40	Valeria Bednarik: really tkss Teejay! you don't know how much i apreciate this kind of feedback

1:40	[Comment From Andreas] Here you can watch it live: http://www.thomson-webcast.net/de/dispatching/?ecb_090205_stream_video has not yet started

1:41	FXstreet.com: concerining on the inflation that 2009 Inflation Rates May Fluctuate Sharply.

1:41	Valeria Bednarik: already started yes

1:41	Valeria Bednarik: see? Trichet is concerned about inflation!

1:42	Valeria Bednarik: What about the non production, unemployment, and so?

1:42	[Comment From mr cable] EURUSD now below rising trendline from all the lows posted so far, look on dailies

1:42	[Comment From A.Gajani] Ms. Valeria What could be a good buying point for GBP/USD as it may rise again for 1.4700? Thanks

1:43	FXstreet.com: Trichet says "Persistant Econ Weakness In Coming Quarters"

1:43	Valeria Bednarik: short term rebound? umm not my favorite but probably around 1.4530 zone.. under 1.4500 STOP LOSS

1:43	[Comment From anil] I shorted e/gb this morning @ 0.8928

1:43	Valeria Bednarik: good for you!

1:43	[Comment From ted] how long will his speech take?

1:43	Valeria Bednarik: more than half an hour

1:43	[Comment From paz] Valeria do you use pivot point to calculate resistance and support? What time is better 5pm or 0:0

1:43

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1:44	Valeria Bednarik: No I don't although is a valid way to do it!

1:44	[Comment From Guest] does CVJ has any blog?

1:44	Valeria Bednarik: yes of course! he does! let's ask the moderator for the link!

1:44	[Comment From vinesh] he is saying the same things like last time

1:45	FXstreet.com: Here please take a look at CVJ's Blog blogs.fxstreet.com/fxtoday/

1:45	Valeria Bednarik: He always does... and have no polite comment about that really, right now. Let me chill a bit

1:45	[Comment From mickey] great job val. are you doing any trading right now or you are waiting things to clear out?

1:46	Valeria Bednarik: I can do a couple of things at a time, but no, I will wait things to calm a bit

1:46	FXstreet.com: Trichet considers Inflation Rates Likely To Rise Again

1:46	[Comment From mr cable] someone wake up trichet, he's in a coma

1:46	[Comment From mr cable] just imagine, all the dovishness from trichet on the economic front, it must be much much worse for the uK

1:46	[Comment From Haiduk] Do you guys really think that Trichet doesn't know what he's talking about? To me he's the only adult in the room, resisting peer pressure from a bunch of irresponsible teenagers.. I'm glad there's an alternative

1:47	Valeria Bednarik: Haiduk, I respect your opinion, but not share it. He should had reacted sooner.

1:47	[Comment From Anthony] I would be careful of buying GBPUSD, or doing any "risk" trades considering the deterioration in US markets which are about to open.

1:47	Valeria Bednarik: Good idea Anthony! tks for reminding us that!

1:48	[Comment From ian pearson] ive just took a risk bought eur/gbp at .8770 looks oversold to me lets hope im right

1:48	Valeria Bednarik: in the short term could work!

1:48	[Comment From mickey] if gbp/usd doesn't break 1.4660 today, is it possible to see reversal toward 1.40?

1:49	Valeria Bednarik: only under...let me see!

1:49	Valeria Bednarik: 1.4400/ 1.4350

1:49	[Comment From mickey] so maybe trichet will raise rates next month??? :)

1:49	[Comment From Mr. Cad] The UK is in a long term deflation. GBP bulls are in a frenzy and ignoring the catastrophic condition of the UK economy.

1:50	Valeria Bednarik: I don't expect a rates rise in Europe no next month. And regarding U.K. at least they recong the conditions..

1:50	[Comment From Paul] speech done, taking questions now

1:51	[Comment From PS] gbp moving around 1.4550...how would you confirm the support is broken?

1:51	Valeria Bednarik: a !5 minutes candle opening or so

1:51	FXstreet.com: We have 3 minutes left.. Please ask Valerica anything ... and Please follow up with her blog at blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/

1:51	Valeria Bednarik: 15 minutes sorry

1:51	[Comment From mr cable] closed short cable from 4610 at 4549

1:52	[Comment From Mr. Cad] Ian......you will make money on this counter trend.I am going in as well.

1:52	Valeria Bednarik: Ok I believe we are done for today guys!

1:52	[Comment From ali] do u think it will make new lows todY

1:53	Valeria Bednarik: Ali Euro seems likely to do them at this point

1:53	[Comment From tony] wots the hope of the euro by next month ,considering the economic recession

1:53	Valeria Bednarik: As told before, i see the pair still quite bearish

1:53	[Comment From Lanre] Thanks the coverage

1:53	[Comment From Dean] Thanks Valeria

1:54	Valeria Bednarik: Thank you all for been here really! I will take a moment and move to the blog to add some post!

1:54	[Comment From mark storey] yes thank you

1:54	[Comment From Nelson] Thanks Val

1:54	FXstreet.com: Sorry guys ,, it ts time to sum up Today's live coverage.. As said before , please follow up with her blog at blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/

1:54	Valeria Bednarik: try to follow euro ans swissy and sleepy Jpy from there!

1:55	Valeria Bednarik: I always enjoy being here, hope you too! Many tks to you all really

1:55	FXstreet.com: Final word Please

1:55	[Comment From Guest] Thanks for the info.

1:55	[Comment From Roberto] Thank you Valeria. You're great !

1:56	Valeria Bednarik: While Euro remains under selling pressure, Gbp seems reluctant to fall. We have talk a lot today about why and which could be the best decission

1:56	FXstreet.com: Thank you Valerica! we have had a great time and appreciate your support.

1:57	Valeria Bednarik: we talk about mature decission, or childest ones.

1:57	[Comment From Teejay] Val you are wonderful!

1:57	Valeria Bednarik: At the end, Technicals dind't work that bad right?

1:57	Valeria Bednarik: See you soon or later in the blog! Bye to all

1:58	FXstreet.com: Thank you again valeria .. Hope to see you again here !

1:59	FXstreet.com: I would like to specially thank CMS Forex, today’s sponsor, for their support. Open a live account with CMS with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now. Use the following links to follow up about today’s main market news.

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2:00	FXstreet.com: Thank you everybody for joining the live coverage,, Tomorrow we have NFP live coverage!.. I hope to see all of you guys again here! Stay turned