BoE and ECB Live Coverage
| BoE and ECB Live Coverage with Valeria Bednarik | (03/05/2009) |
11:51 | FXstreet.com: Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's BoE and ECB Interest Rates Decisions Live Coverage will start in 10 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Valeria Bednarik who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. She will be giving us a direct picture fo the market status. |
11:51 | FXstreet.com: Valeria Bednarik has been an active Forex trader for the last 3 years, specializing in the International Foreign Exchange Market. She also graduates in the Universidad Catolica del Salvador, in Argentina, as a Public Account, specializing in financials and cost managements. She currently manages an important clients portfolio for IFX Markets, Boston and is senior trader manager at Molfx-Management; besides she works training new traders with Trader College LLC specializing in technical analysis, for the English speaking community. |
11:52 | FXstreet.com: The BoE is widely expected to cut the ongoing interest rates by 50bps to 0.50% that would be the lowest rate in the bank's history since it was establish in 1869. we have seen a deterioating economic situation Today we have to pay close attention whether or not selling pressure on the Pound will emerge again. Regarding to the ECB, the market forecast the ECB to cut the ongoing interest rate 50bps to 1.50%. It will be important to determine how the ECB considers the current economic situation. Trichet speech is scheduled at 13:30GMT. |
11:53 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi everyone, welcome to this live coverage! as always, is an honour to be here today wirh you |
11:53 | [Comment From Davis] what is the trend for major currencies, after BoE and ECB cut rate decision? |
11:54 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Davis! I expect if the cuts are actually cut, to see the bearish trend continue in both pairs, despite any initial spike |
11:55 | [Comment From Guest] what pairs will be the most volatile after the boe interest rate........... |
11:55 | FXstreet.com: Hi everyone !!! great see you again and thank you for joining the live coverage again! Hi Valeria!!!!! Well i would like to ask your opinion on the BoE rate decision. Let's vote the polls! |
11:55 | Valeria Bednarik: I believe that first of all involving Euro and Gbp, watch also also for CHF and CAD |
| 11:56 | Will the BoE cut the bench mark interest rate? Yes, the BoE will cut it by 25bps to 0.75%. ( 8% ) ( 69% ) ( 4% ) ( 12% ) ( 0% ) ( 8% ) |
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11:57 | FXstreet.com: CMS General Research page |
11:57 | FXstreet.com: Daily video about the main market news |
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11:57 | FXstreet.com: Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead |
11:57 | FXstreet.com: 3 minutes to go with the BoE decision. |
11:58 | [Comment From KB] hi, if rates unchanged, we expect a push? |
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11:59 | FXstreet.com: 1 minute to go! |
11:59 | Valeria Bednarik: The fact is that i'm seeing some sell the rumor market reaction, and -I don't expect a hold, but probably yes, a hold will turn majors up |
11:59 | [Comment From vivek] do you think that things will be similar to last times rate cut - as in gbpusd rises a goof few 100 pips following cut announcements? |
11:59 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Vivek, could yes, but resume downside trend after a couple of hours. |
12:00 | [Comment From Johnny] What do you expact EURGBP after the rate decision? thx |
12:00 | FXstreet.com: 0.50% |
12:00 | Valeria Bednarik: ok rate cut is here, Jonny, let's see your question later!
|
12:00 | FXstreet.com: 50bps cut |
12:01 | Valeria Bednarik: As jsut comment first reaction is a bullish spike, to the key zone between 1.4135/60 |
12:01 | Valeria Bednarik: but the pair is quickly aproaching to 1.4060.. let's see which one will be culnerate earlier. |
12:02 | FXstreet.com: The BoE has decided to cut the benchmark interest rates by 50bps to 0.50% as widely expected. |
12:02 | Valeria Bednarik: I expect EUR GBP to hold ranges during the announcements.. from a technical perspective, the pair need to clearly brak above 0.9000 to continues previous ascendnat trend |
12:02 | [Comment From Davis] how about australian dollar? is is safe to buy at this leve;? thanx |
12:03 | Valeria Bednarik: i don't think so.. I rather wait for lower levels closer to 0.6200 to attempt a buy there |
12:03 | [Comment From Guest] How could CAD respond? |
12:04 | Valeria Bednarik: Interesting question! Lately Cad has been acting as a mirror of GBP./USD, meaning reacting along. If Gbp breaks supports and fall, Cad will probably fall too (pair rise in charts) and we could see an aproach to the huge 1.3000 resistance zone |
12:04 | [Comment From Guest] Hi, What is the best time to go for a trade? |
12:05 | Valeria Bednarik: Just for me, after is over! all over!! Trichet included.. is not the last chance market will gave us... Seriously, I rather wait at least a 15 minutes candle close to decide a trade. |
12:05 | [Comment From i think no movement at al] i think no movement at alll |
12:06 | FXstreet.com: here please take a look at the office note |
12:06 | Valeria Bednarik: Give market a few minutes more |
12:07 | Valeria Bednarik: Gbp needs to clearly break the base of an inverted flag, or small chanel around 1.4010 take alook at 1 hours charts |
12:07 | Valeria Bednarik: break under will send the pair close to the minimus zone @1.3946 |
12:07 | [Comment From vivek] what is your advice on once the cuts if any are announced? watch 1 or 2 5 min bars n go with the trend? |
12:08 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Vivek! trully, I rather wait for things to settle, but well going with the downward trend seems the wisest thing to do |
12:08 | [Comment From bond] what impact wil it have on euro/usd |
12:08 | Valeria Bednarik: Euro will wait for Trichet's speech |
12:08 | [Comment From Anthony] And they will do quantitative easing... should this push the GBP down ? |
12:08 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes, probalby |
12:08 | [Comment From Qasim] Is this the time to buy GBP/USD? |
12:09 | Valeria Bednarik: I don't think so Quasim, if 1.4010 gives up.. watch for the 1.38/1.39 levels to buy there |
12:09 | [Comment From vivek] any thoughts on gbpusd at present? bearish trend ? |
12:09 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes vivek, yet, let's wait and see the break of levels |
12:09 | [Comment From bond] how abt euro/usd ? is it expected to test support levels, is it good time to short? |
12:10 | Valeria Bednarik: As said before, I rather wait till things are in fact here, and no take chances there.Euro must move under 1.2520 to regain bearish momentum |
12:10 | [Comment From Rohit Sahni] What do u think about gold? |
12:11 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Rohit! I will ask my good friend CVJ to answer that for you! he follows gold, I don't really! give us a while |
12:11 | [Comment From Errol] Do you thin ECB will cut and what direction will the Euro go? |
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12:12 | Valeria Bednarik: I think really yes, ECB will cut rates.. and Euro will resume downtrend |
12:12 | FXstreet.com: CMS General Research page |
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12:12 | Valeria Bednarik: Here is CVJ's answeer about gold |
12:12 | Valeria Bednarik: Gold is "consolidating" a bit in the near-term considering the "easing" of the recent China flows into Gold... but medium and longer-term Bullishness will prevail as long as negative risk is still in the Global Climate... |
12:13 | [Comment From gas] boe is throwing everything at the problem, dont know about the gbp/usd but i think gby/jpy will continue its uptrend |
12:13 | Valeria Bednarik: That's because Japanese yen is falling faster acrross the board |
12:14 | [Comment From Rohit Sahni] what do you think about INR (Indian Rupee)? |
12:14 | Valeria Bednarik: Sorry my friend, I don't really now about it! |
12:14 | [Comment From Guest] when is the rate annouced |
12:15 | Valeria Bednarik: in around 30 minutes |
12:15 | [Comment From narayan patel] what effect comes on commodities , if boe and ecb will reduce intrest rates? |
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12:16 | Valeria Bednarik: Euro is getting close to the mentioned level, while GBP is also fighting the 1.4060. |
12:17 | Valeria Bednarik: About commodities |
12:17 | Valeria Bednarik: Not a Marked Effect as a whole... as the Euro and Pound specifically are not very tightly correlated to Commodities as a whole...even Gold and Crude were minimally effected right at the Release.... |
12:17 | Valeria Bednarik: indicating that part of the cuts were already priced in, if you know what i mean |
12:17 | [Comment From Amit] What is the view on the Euro-$... has been very range bound 1.2455 to 1.266. If ECB cuts by 50bps, where do we see it moving? |
12:18 | Valeria Bednarik: I believe to the downside. Under the base of the range, the pair could attempt a retest of the 1.2330 minimums zone. Remember tomorrow we have NFP also in the states, |
12:19 | Valeria Bednarik: with again bad numbers expected.. and market is correlated with stocks lately so a fall in employment will probably send stocks down again |
12:19 | Valeria Bednarik: and amazingly dollar up because of the save haven condition the currency has |
12:20 | Valeria Bednarik: Gbp is unable to move higher... should start falling soon, seems market is expecting ECB decision for the next move |
12:20 | [Comment From gas] againt jpy too ? |
12:20 | Valeria Bednarik: Sorry, against what? there are lot's of question and I try to attend them all. Please be more specific |
12:20 | [Comment From Davis] is it safe to sell gbp/usd? |
12:21 | Valeria Bednarik: Under the mentioned levels, and after ECB will be safe |
12:21 | [Comment From arun kandal] should we wait ti nfp data to buy gbp |
12:21 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes Arum I rather do so.. let's see however how the day ends today. |
12:22 | [Comment From arun kandal] should we wait for nfp data to take any position in gbp and at wht level buy could try |
12:24 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes! no time for longer term decision untill storm is over! this volatile movements we see in market in rate days or with the US NFP, |
12:24 | FXstreet.com: Valeria dedicates herself to a blog at FXstreet.com. She covers daily market view. I am a big fan of it. Please follow up with her blog at blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/2009/03/05/eurusd-technical-points-5/ |
12:24 | Valeria Bednarik: usually are good for rebounds in key levels if they get reached... |
12:26 | Valeria Bednarik: Sorry! lost conection for a while but back here |
12:26 | Valeria Bednarik: Gbp is entering the break down zone, and see the mirror reaction in USD/CAD |
12:26 | [Comment From Carlos] What about EUR/GBP time to go bearish? |
12:27 | Valeria Bednarik: As i said before, the pair is moving in ranges, almost an horizontal channel. |
12:27 | Valeria Bednarik: Under 0.8800 could be a good longer term bearish oportunity. |
12:28 | [Comment From Aaron] Would the rate cute spur a rally in the stock markets, increasing risk appetite and thereby increasing the demand for the pound or the euro? Or would the cut decrease the attractiveness of these currencies? |
12:28 | FXstreet.com: in 15 minutes the ECB interest rate desicion. so let me know your opinion about it!. let's vote the polls again! |
| 12:29 | Will the ECB low the bench mark interest rate? Yes, the ECB will cut it by 25bps ( 12% ) ( 68% ) ( 16% ) ( 4% ) ( 0% ) |
12:30 | Valeria Bednarik: Great question Aaron! I don't think rates will directly affect stocks markets, but more like decrease the attractiveness. In fact, we should see how stocks are performing right now, after the first cut. But a red close in Europe will put pressure in Dow Jones. Futures are already expected to open to the downside meanwhile |
12:31 | [Comment From Anthony] Could the EURUSD actually decline if the ECB stubbornly refuses to cut again? |
12:32 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Anthony! Trichet already recong that he may have acted sooner..At this point every and each messure seems to be to late, and not enough |
12:33 | Valeria Bednarik: We are expeculating about market probable reaction, but from a purely technical perspective, I can't see Euro rising yet |
12:33 | [Comment From Amit] Valeria, you think downtrend in Euro-$ will continue? What levels can we expect |
12:34 | Valeria Bednarik: I expect the downard to continue, and as posted in blog, under 1.2520 expect a retest of the 1.2450 lows. Break under 1.2400, will take the pair to 1.2330 importan minimum zone
|
12:34 | FXstreet.com: 10 minutes to go . ECB interest rate decision. |
12:35 | Valeria Bednarik: I read a question about cooper, and I can't find it right now, |
12:35 | Valeria Bednarik: demand will rise do to China and the Asian-Pacific Rimneeds slowly begining to rebound in the longer-term... Palladium, too. |
12:35 | [Comment From gas] equities? what´s your view? |
12:36 | Valeria Bednarik: They are really at a bottom, but that does not mean they will stop falling. DJIA needs to regain the 8000 level to really become bullish, and that's around 1200 points. Till then, bearish for me |
12:36 | [Comment From Carlos] when is time to short on EUR/GBP ? |
12:37 | Valeria Bednarik: You know, I'm more a technical trader, so I short the pair once i get info form my charts.. if you place a Fibo on weekly charts, from let me see |
12:38 | Valeria Bednarik: lows around 0.7700 to high at 0.9800 you wil find out that the pair corrected to the 61.8% and return to the 38.2% this week |
12:39 | Valeria Bednarik: That 38.2% zone around 0,900 had gave a good rebound till now.. and should hold the upside |
12:39 | [Comment From Navin] wat abt crude oil? |
12:39 | Valeria Bednarik: Crude will continue to fall in the near-term if it stays inversely coupled to the strong Dollar... In the immediate term... we will continue to retrace a little bit.....Long-Term looks for the $60-$70 level as a compromise with demand and OPEC. |
12:40 | [Comment From arun kandal] gbp wil go 1.3900 |
12:40 | Valeria Bednarik: I expect so yes |
12:40 | [Comment From Batcom] Where might I find some free real time news release weblinks? |
12:41 | Valeria Bednarik: Have you seen the new Fxstreet.com home page? there they have dow jones, and other stuff, but most of the services you ask for are for pay |
12:41 | [Comment From bond] where do u think euro/usd to be in a week from now |
12:42 | FXstreet.com: 3 minutes to go |
12:42 | FXstreet.com: CMS Forex, today’s Sponsor also produces expert analysis, market research and daily market news coverage with videos and reports. Browse the following URLs to learn and take profit from their expertise. |
12:43 | FXstreet.com: CMS General Research page |
12:43 | FXstreet.com: Daily video about the main market news |
12:43 | FXstreet.com: Expert Analysis of Today's Market |
12:43 | FXstreet.com: Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead |
12:43 | Valeria Bednarik: If i cann for sure answer that question, I will be trading, not here be sure. Meaning.. I can tell you i see it bearish, and resuming down trend. I can also see the down trend is getting exhausted yet with no signs of turn. I expect a retest of the 1.2330 zone, but that's as much as I can say about future. |
12:43 | [Comment From Davis] what is the target for gold? |
12:43 | Valeria Bednarik: Near-Term 920's.... Mid-Term back to test above 1000... long long term 2000's...... |
12:43 | [Comment From Aram] is it time to short cable? |
12:44 | Valeria Bednarik: not yet. see the pair testing the support zone many times, still unable to break under. Market is waiting for ECB sand Trichet |
12:44 | FXstreet.com: 1 minute to go |
12:44 | [Comment From mafacifa] how will the ECB announcement impact gbp/usd movement? |
12:45 | Valeria Bednarik: Ecb annoucement impact is not as important lately as later speech. But I believe most currencies will fall if the ECB cut rates and the speech focus on slowdown |
12:45 | FXstreet.com: 50 bps cut to 1.50% |
12:45 | [Comment From Rohit Sahni] plz send me the web link to do continue chating in future!! |
12:45 | Valeria Bednarik: Ok I will ask moderator to repost the blog´s link |
12:46 | FXstreet.com: The ECB cuts 50bps to 1.50% from 2.00% |
12:46 | FXstreet.com: Here yyou can see her blogblogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/2009/03/05/eurusd-technical-points-5/ |
12:46 | Valeria Bednarik: ok! ECB TIME! First spike is sending Euro up |
12:47 | Valeria Bednarik: yet only above 1.2620 zone we could see the pair more bullish, to the key 1.2660 zone |
12:47 | [Comment From David] in the longer view are you bearish on the eur verus usd |
12:49 | Valeria Bednarik: David, I don't trade longer term. Honestly, don't like it much. And actual levels are not good for such trades. As said before, market is giving some shy, really shy at this tme, signs of exhaustion to the downside. I rather continue with short term trades at this levels. |
12:49 | [Comment From David] is it the best safe haven currency |
12:50 | Valeria Bednarik: Do you mean dollar? well yes.. at this time IT IS. Market change, but as discussed in previous live coverage, Treasuries are the "100% safe investment" market has.. probably small winnings there, but sure in turmoil times |
12:51 | [Comment From Farhad] Sorry, What is the mentioned levels for GBP/USD? |
12:51 | Valeria Bednarik: 1.4060 and 1.4010 floor of an inverted flag |
12:51 | [Comment From Amit] if we all expect the ECB to cut, NFP to be bad, stocks to fall, Euro to be downward -- why is the Euro still holding on between 1.25 & 1.26 ? |
12:52 | Valeria Bednarik: Exactly Amit! some shy signs of a turn? still no confirmations but as you say pair is holding here. |
12:52 | [Comment From Guest] I think about going short with EUR/GBP upon ECB release, |
12:53 | Valeria Bednarik: ok, let's see the levels you like there |
12:53 | [Comment From glen] Sorry, I not agree with you, if ecb cut rate than eur will goes down for a while than see costumer confidace will up than eur will strong more than you think |
12:53 | Valeria Bednarik: Glen, you can disagree as much as you like, we are sharing views here! |
12:54 | Valeria Bednarik: you are right about Confidence: Euro zone needs it desperatly, and rate cuts aims for that |
12:55 | Valeria Bednarik: the whole idea of cutting rates, is to exhacerbate the so damage confidence and cosumption, yet at the same time, |
12:55 | Valeria Bednarik: makes the curerncy less atractive for investors, and the measure is not enough to solve the problems that are coausing unemployment and drops in production and so on.. |
12:56 | [Comment From arun kandal] how far these events can drag the gbp atleast today |
12:56 | Valeria Bednarik: Under 1.4010 consier the lows 1.3900' |
12:56 | [Comment From dl] Hi the Euro sems to be well supported at the base established over the last nov tillnow ard price level of 123.34 and recently 124.56 ( recent low). not able to penetrate inspite of the fears of Eastern Euro Zone banking crisis spilling over to the main EU zone. yesterday was a good 200 pips range and today I feel that it wld make a stab at the low and bounce back up. esp if Monsiur Trichet says that he is going to pause for next month. |
12:57 | Valeria Bednarik: Tks Dl for the comment. |
12:57 | [Comment From Berat] Dont you think 1.25 is a good boottom for eur/usd? |
12:57 | [Comment From Berat] Do you believe the EUR/USD rate cut has been priced in, and that the market might focus on data for days to come |
12:58 | Valeria Bednarik: At the moment seems so Berat, yet in the midle of this volatile, and to call a bottom we should wait aat least to the daily close |
12:59 | Valeria Bednarik: Always cuts are priced in lately, and market is more focused on stocks than data. But as said earlier, marlet usually waits for Trichet speech, and clues about further cuts to react |
12:59 | [Comment From Davis] why aud and eur starting up? |
1:00 | Valeria Bednarik: Not really up.. just a few pips.. market will wait half an hour more |
1:00 | [Comment From patrick] If the gbp/usd goes down to 1.38 level, will it be a good level to buy??? |
1:00 | Valeria Bednarik: longer term, low leverage stops under 1.3500 zone? yes at least for me |
1:00 | [Comment From Davis] what level will gold at? |
1:00 | FXstreet.com: here you can see the oficial note of the ECBwww.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2009/html/pr090305.en.html |
1:00 | Valeria Bednarik: See previous answers already posted |
1:01 | [Comment From Dimitris] what's your possible senario for eur/usd midterm |
1:02 | Valeria Bednarik: posible test of 1.2330 if today or tomorrow breaks underthis week minimun, and from there, if breaks more bearish pressure if not, probable longer term botton. |
1:02 | [Comment From Aaron] Do you see some substantial retraction of the USDJPY? Or will this ONLY happen after the pair has hit 100.00? |
1:03 | Valeria Bednarik: I see the pair hitting the zoe around 100.50 (weekly highs plus roof of an ascendant channel) before some correction in the pair. Yet no substancial ones. Not for Jpy |
1:03 | [Comment From patrick] when equities rises, will it weaken the dollar??? |
1:04 | Valeria Bednarik: As we are living an inverted reaction, yes is the most probable scenario in the short mid term. Relationship will end sooner or later |
1:04 | [Comment From Dimitris] what's your view on gbp/usd ? |
1:04 | [Comment From Dimitris] i believe till end of march eur/usd will be 1.2280 |
1:05 | Valeria Bednarik: Gbp/Usd is telling me nothing at this levels. Above 1.4135/60 congestion zone or under 1.4030/10 i expect more reactions. |
1:05 | [Comment From Guest] Yes but why , is that coz cut come as cons? |
1:06 | Valeria Bednarik: Sorry, English is not my language so please avoid using slang.. i can´t understand the question.. please translate it for me! tks! |
1:06 | [Comment From gas] like the comment from the cfo of ge capital, shorts are crazy if they think ge is going broke. they will spin off the finance unit and sell it to the us gov, |
1:07 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Gas? you mean who by he? Trichet? |
1:07 | [Comment From Charles Poluan] what do you think of the relation of gold to crude oil? |
1:07 | Valeria Bednarik: Right now it is Inverse... as safe-haven flows will continue into Gold with risk averse climates |
1:07 | [Comment From David] why does a decrease in the eur rate result in in increase in the eur |
1:08 | Valeria Bednarik: Still not bearish not bullish, but if you read upside, you can see we have discuss that previously |
1:08 | [Comment From Samer] take buy gbp/usd with stop lose is it good idea ? |
1:08 | Valeria Bednarik: Not here at this levels |
1:08 | [Comment From Guest] why doesn't the eur/usd go bearsih......... |
1:09 | Valeria Bednarik: It's waiting. Market is waiting for the speech |
1:09 | [Comment From Anthony] When and how long is Trichet speach? |
1:09 | Valeria Bednarik: Starting now, and about 45 minutes including Q&A |
1:09 | FXstreet.com: the speech starts at 13:45 GMT |
1:10 | Valeria Bednarik: also, remember oild gold relationship is always changing..is too indirect in fact |
1:10 | Valeria Bednarik: SORRY my mistake! |
1:10 | Valeria Bednarik: startingin 30 minutes so |
1:10 | [Comment From Guest] What about GBP? it is going up now, what is the resistance? and when is it going to break? |
1:10 | FXstreet.com: sorry sarting at 13:30 GMT |
1:11 | Valeria Bednarik: Guest... be patient... market won't close after this news.. you have all your life to trade, and remember my words today: this is not the best time to do it. Resistance is the congestion zone between 1.4135 and 1.4160 |
1:11 | [Comment From Vivek] I guess your right...everyone seems to be wating for the speech...I think markets will move much more during and after the speech...rather not trade until after that is over... |
1:12 | Valeria Bednarik: exactly Vinesh.. .no need!!! market will be ALWAYS be here! why take risky trades right now? |
1:12 | [Comment From elbarck] Hello there, I was following the market now, and I can see some signals for Bullish on E/U and Bearish USD/CHF |
1:13 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi elbarck! we have been also discussing this.. shy signals but well wait til Trichet finish his speech |
1:13 | [Comment From elbarck] What do you think :D about that, long EUR/USD and Short USD/CHF |
1:13 | Valeria Bednarik: at this time, just a bet... not a trade. Honestly no ofense please ok? |
1:14 | [Comment From Guest] what would the effect be on the euro if trichet were to address quantitative easing |
1:14 | Valeria Bednarik: He still has more rate cuts on the sleave so, i don't expect him to tall about quantitative easing. anyway, taht will harm euro more than rates for me |
1:14 | [Comment From Samer] Valeria Bednarik: but GBP moved bellow 1.4 before , is that sign GBP will go down again ? |
1:16 | Valeria Bednarik: no. See i'm posting intraday levels, not longer term ones.. If you consider longer term, till now the pair fail to break under that level, yet is no time for me, of calling a bullish recoup in the pair. We need to see the apir at least above 1.4330 for that.. and at least! that level |
1:17 | [Comment From ferry] sorry, what is the mentioned level for EUR/USD after Trichet speech |
1:17 | Valeria Bednarik: To the upside, watch 1.2600/20 first and then 1.2660. To the downside, 1.2490 and this week minimum at 1.2460 or so |
1:17 | [Comment From Michael] I have noticed that oil prices are up and gold down last few days. Can this be influential on dollar strength. Do you believe that correlation between dollar strength and equity markets will continue ? Thanks in advance .. :) |
1:19 | Valeria Bednarik: Dollar strength is due more for stocks falls and counterpart weakness that actual strength. Gold could be correcting but seems quite bullsih inthe short and the longer term. Correlation will continue yes, no end at sight |
1:19 | [Comment From Cassie] I've heard rumours of a EUR/USD no touch option at 1.25-1.30 could this be affecting the levels? |
1:20 | Valeria Bednarik: I heard them too.. and of course. Rumours about China defending options at the key 1.2500 level. Taht could be the reason the pair is holding just above there despite Euro weakness |
1:20 | [Comment From ranpaopao] can eur/usd will down? |
1:20 | [Comment From Joe] Can I ask a question? |
1:21 | Valeria Bednarik: ranpaopao, Euro is exactly at the same level than previous to the release.. Gbp quite close also. Let's see market rection after Trichet |
1:21 | Valeria Bednarik: Joe yes, you can ask |
1:21 | [Comment From Vivek] the eurgbp is so volatile..there is no predicting that pair! |
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1:21 | Valeria Bednarik: is a slow pair Vivek... good to longer term trades |
1:22 | [Comment From Guest] What is the breaking poing for GBP to go long 14100? |
1:22 | Valeria Bednarik: no for me... above 1.4160 at least |
1:22 | [Comment From Samer] Valeria Bednarik: i think next hr "candel stick" in chart will be good sign for gbp and eur |
1:22 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes Samer will probably.. but there are so many questions I can hardly see charts! |
1:22 | [Comment From Doko] OMG Valeria why you are so bearish about EUR ! You keep saying that do not trade long time frames but keep insisting that EUR will FALL ! |
1:23 | Valeria Bednarik: HI DOKO! I was almost missing you around here. I don't trrade longer term. But i trade following trend always! And you should be happy today, I say there are signs of probable change... |
1:23 | [Comment From Jimmy] but, how should we read the current eor/usd? |
1:24 | Valeria Bednarik: Meaning what Jim? I don't understnd your question |
1:24 | [Comment From Berat] if the rates cuts strengthened the USD, why not EUR and other currencies,follow such scenario? |
1:25 | Valeria Bednarik: Berat, there is no strnength for dollar... just fears and weakness all around. |
1:26 | Valeria Bednarik: As comment before, is a matter or secure investment... currencies are not responding to their own countruies situation, but to stocks markets this won't last but is what we have now |
1:26 | [Comment From Samer] why i can't see what i'm writing here ! |
1:27 | Valeria Bednarik: Samer there are hundreds of you, and only one me..
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1:27 | Valeria Bednarik: I'm answering as fast as i can, and trying to post you all |
1:27 | FXstreet.com: Trichet will have a press conferest soon |
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1:27 | [Comment From Davis] euro is going bullish. why is that happen? |
1:27 | Valeria Bednarik: No bullish still Davos |
1:27 | [Comment From Bill] Thank you for your excellent running commentary, Valeria. Your views have been very rewarding |
1:28 | Valeria Bednarik: thanks you Bill |
1:28 | [Comment From ferry] what level a good buy for eur/usd after trichet speech |
1:28 | Valeria Bednarik: I believe close to 1.2400 if reached... all will depend on the price. |
1:28 | [Comment From Joe] What is your senario for USD/JBP? |
1:29 | Valeria Bednarik: Jpy i guess you mean.. read above.... really tough resistance zoen at 100.50 or so. No big coming backs in the pair. Bullish trend to contiue, with short corrections in the midle |
1:29 | [Comment From Joe] Why no body is answering my questions? |
1:29 | Valeria Bednarik: Sorry Joe, already did |
1:29 | [Comment From Samer] Valeria Bednarik it look like USD/CAD in top , what u think !? |
1:30 | Valeria Bednarik: I Think the same.. Oild shoud apreciate slowly, as comment before closer to 60 or 70, and we have that 1.3000 really important resistnace level above |
1:30 | [Comment From Aaron] How come all this printing of money what with the multi billion stimulus deals are not seen as weak for the dollar because it certainly will devalue the currency won't it? |
1:31 | FXstreet.com: Now U.S. jobless claim came out -31K to 639K |
1:33 | Valeria Bednarik: Aaron you are completely right.. and also that will bring back inflation into play..and then rate rises... we can spent a life time talking about economic cycles, and mistakes. History is showing us we don't learn. As Said before, dollar is not strong.. is fear sending investors to safety.. |
1:33 | [Comment From tamer] so do you think there will be a big move in Eur/usd price today or tomorrow |
1:33 | Valeria Bednarik: Both days I believe will be plenty of volatility |
1:33 | [Comment From Berat] I do not think that Trichet will send a message that might weaken EUR, there is lot of rumours already in the market for the Eurozone, already, what do you think? |
1:34 | FXstreet.com: the speech has begun now |
1:34 | Valeria Bednarik: I think people will be watching for further rates moves. If Trichet says something like this is it! no more cuts, will probably see euro apreciating quickly. people will start pricing in next rate decision today |
1:34 | [Comment From Guest] EQUITIES RISING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT ONLY WEAKENS USD BECAUSE OF REDUCTION OF RISK AVERSION MEANS USD IS NO LONGER NEEDED AS SAFE HAVEN |
1:35 | Valeria Bednarik: yes, that's what we have been saying |
1:35 | [Comment From Berat] Valeria, if you look at monthly chart. there is a |
1:35 | [Comment From Berat] a sudden stop in the Eur/USD bear, do you think this is worrisome |
1:36 | Valeria Bednarik: not worrisome, but well could be understood as another probable bottom sign |
1:36 | [Comment From Denis] Does anyone have a link where Triche's speech can be watched live? |
1:36 | [Comment From Alexander] do you think that australian economy is really the one in the best shape compared to others, like Stevens said two days ago? |
1:36 | FXstreet.com: Trichet considers that inflation will remains below 2.00% |
1:37 | Valeria Bednarik: I don't really.. they hold rates, yes, but 24 hours later their GDP slumps really hard! No healthy economy right now, anywhere but China probably |
1:37 | [Comment From jay] you mentioned expecting usdjpy at the 100.50 levels, in how long would you see that to happen? thx |
1:37 | Valeria Bednarik: soon... this, next week |
1:37 | [Comment From Chris] doesn't it all depend on your time horizon, for example, buy GBPUSD here, 12 point stop, 30 point profit target, if we were to do that over the time horizon of a yr, I think that would be feasible.....what do you think? |
1:38 | FXstreet.com: Please check out the ECB offcial site where you can watch the speech at www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html |
1:38 | Valeria Bednarik: See your point Chris... a trade is a trade short or long term that's what you mean right? |
1:39 | Valeria Bednarik: yet i don't have the patient to do so. |
1:39 | Valeria Bednarik: to be in the market too long I mean. |
1:39 | [Comment From Guest] wouldnt you go short the EUR/USD if the Dow futures point to lower open? Dow-98 points or -1.4% |
1:40 | Valeria Bednarik: for short term trades no doubts. |
1:40 | Valeria Bednarik: I have just seen charts. Trichet is speaking euro falling |
1:40 | FXstreet.com: Trichet says GDP would recover in 2009, 2010 |
1:40 | Valeria Bednarik: fbp following |
1:40 | Valeria Bednarik: Gbp sorry. |
1:41 | Valeria Bednarik: Here we go.. take a look at Swissy |
1:42 | Valeria Bednarik: Still te speach always mean jumps either way.. up and down after each trichet sentence.. |
1:42 | FXstreet.com: We have just 10 minutes left. Please ask Valeria anything related to the market! Those who can not get answer, please follow up her blog at http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/2009/03/05/eurusd-technical-points-5/ |
1:42 | [Comment From Carston] Hi Valeria, what about USDJPY, do you not think it is a bit over extended at these levels? |
1:42 | Valeria Bednarik: read previous questions please, we already discuss this |
1:42 | [Comment From arun kandal] can i expect much downside pressure 15-20 before the nfp data release or can u pls provide me link to contact sameer and vivek |
1:43 | Valeria Bednarik: I don't have anyway to contact all you guys, but If you wish too, use my blog that's the more i can offer you to exchange mails.. or send them to me and i made the cross reference |
1:43 | [Comment From Fernan] Valeria about your comment about rumors according to option positions from china among others countries, is there any web site where we could find and analize public information like this |
1:44 | Valeria Bednarik: I read some newsparers of those countries in english.. search the net you will surely find more info |
1:44 | FXstreet.com: Trichet comments Monetary Expansion Still Decelerates. |
1:44 | [Comment From Guest] i think usd/jpy is bearish now |
1:44 | [Comment From euggio] i think usd/jpy is bearish |
1:45 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes but I don't expect this movements to be more than corrections before resuming upside trend again |
1:45 | [Comment From Mint] While there're so many weaknesses in Euro economy, and high demand on usd. Is there any reliabilities to buy eur at any level for long term? |
1:45 | FXstreet.com: we have 5 minutes left. |
1:47 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes, of course there always are. you can use low leverage there, and wait for a significant minimum like the mentioned 1.2330. Also, a break to the upside, but is really far from here, I guess above the 1.28 we could go to the 1.3000 zone and not much more
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1:47 | [Comment From Joe] What will be the low USD/JBP in case of a short correction? I have am holding some JBP and wanna go out |
1:47 | Valeria Bednarik: 98,40 zone should hold. Under that probablty closer to the mids 97.00 |
1:48 | [Comment From verylongtrader] hi val, i have buy position e/u from last week, now -150 pips, what should i do? give me advise |
1:49 | Valeria Bednarik: If the pair remains above 1,2500 and you are not risking your account, hold it. break under 1.2460 will get you in trouble. Close and assume the loss or put an hedge |
1:49 | [Comment From Aaron] Valeria, don't you think the combined effect of the rate cuts and a bear day for the Dow Jones (since it rallied yesterday) points to a bearish day for the EUR USD and GBP USD pairs? |
1:50 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes Aaron I expect so, but I will also wait for support breaks |
1:50 | FXstreet.com: We are geeting many comments yet. It's time to sum up Today's live coverage. Both The BoE and the ECB have decided to cut the ongoing interest rates to 0.50% and 1.50% respectively. We would like to thank to Valeria for her participation today. It has been a great pleasure to have you today with us! |
1:50 | [Comment From Denis Palii] HI verylongtrader, you should exit as soon as possible as the short and long term trends are bearish,check 4h chart ... |
1:51 | Valeria Bednarik: I'm sorry really, but I must leave you all now. I'll be back around the blog, to post the conclusions of all this, in about half an hour, after Trichet finish his speech |
1:52 | FXstreet.com: Thank you Valareria ! it has been great ! Valeria, Please give us a final Word,please. |
1:54 | [Comment From Guest] Thank you Valrie |
1:54 | Valeria Bednarik: Always an honour to be here with all of you. I guess my finals worlds will be nothing last for ever, nor stocks falls, nor economic downturns. We just need to be wise enough to detect changes or continuations soon enough, and always protect our trades. Have a plan my friends! See you soon |
1:54 | Valeria Bednarik: Hope you enjoy as much as I |
1:55 | FXstreet.com: Thank you! Valeria! have a nice day! |
1:55 | Valeria Bednarik: Thank you all! |
1:55 | FXstreet.com: I would like to specially thank CMS Forex, today’s sponsor, for their support. Open a live account with CMS with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now. Use the following links to follow up about today’s main market news. |
1:55 | FXstreet.com: CMS General Research page |
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1:55 | FXstreet.com: Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead |
1:57 | FXstreet.com: Well , thank you everyone joininng the today's live coverage! I hope you have had a great time with us. |
1:59 | FXstreet.com: Tomorrow we have NFP live coverage at at 13:15 GMT. I hope i will see you again here!!!! Have a great trading day! Do not forget to place stoplosses! Bye for now! |
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