FXstreet.com Live Sessions Archives

Fibonacci - from novice to advanced techniques

Expert: Adam Rosen, CEO and Co-Founder at 4xLounge
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
Using the Fibonacci tool, we can plot not only potential retracement levels, but also project price targets into the future.

Trading Forex on a Daily Basis Using Daily Charts

Expert: James Chen, Chief Technical Analyst at FX Solutions
Moderator: Maud Gilson

Summary:
During the session, James will make you discover the power of the daily timeframe chart for position trading, swing trading, and shorter-term trading in the forex market. Find out how patterns, trends, indicators, and support/resistance on daily charts can potentially be more reliable than on shorter timeframe charts. Learn effective professional trading techniques and strategies that focus on the 24-hour daily chart as the primary timeframe of choice.

Live Coverage: Fed Interest Rate Decision

Fed Interest Rates Decision with Nick Nasad

(03/18/2009)

  

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7:00

FXstreet.com:  Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's Fed Interest Rates Decison will start in 5 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Nick Nasad who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. He will be giving us a direct picture for the market status.

7:00	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Hello everyone, thank you for having me back on fxstreet

7:01

Nick Nasad - CMS:   We come into today’s meeting with the Fed having to worry about a deepening recession, though rates are already near zero and several programs are under way to try and ease credit markets. Such programs include the Fed buying asset-backed securities in order to increase capital at companies. One arrow in the Fed’s quiver would be to state that it would increase the pace at which it buys these asset-backed securities, which would be a sign of risk appetite.

7:01

FXstreet.com:  Nick Nasad is a currency market analyst with CMS Forex for the last 3 years. He closely monitors fundamental releases and reports their results and provides commentary to the company's clients through CMS Forex's interactive economic calendar Forex Capsule and through daily Forex market video recaps. He has also written extensive educational material on using technical analysis in trading Forex.

7:01	FXstreet.com:  Welcome Nick! Thanks for joining us today again!

7:01	Nick Nasad - CMS:  thank you for that introduction.

7:02

Nick Nasad - CMS:  We come into today’s meeting with the Fed having to worry about a deepening recession, though rates are already near zero and several programs are under way to try and ease credit markets. Such programs include the Fed buying asset-backed securities in order to increase capital at companies. One arrow in the Fed’s quiver would be to state that it would increase the pace at which it buys these asset-backed securities, which would be a sign of risk appetite.

7:02

Nick Nasad - CMS:  Markets will be looking for language that shows the Fed is up to the task of stimulating the economy and shoring up banks and the financial sector. Increasing the purchase of asset-backed securities can help ease risk aversion, while a failure to expand its rate of purchases could do the opposite. However, as we saw earlier today, the Dollar fell against the Euro as these steps taken by the Fed could create excessive money supply which debased the currency.

7:03	Nick Nasad - CMS:  which could debase the currency*

7:03

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7:03

Nick Nasad - CMS:  Another step would be a move towards quantitative easing, which means the Fed would use its balance sheet to purchase Treasuries. The Fed has discussed buying Treasuries to exert pressure designed to lower rates on the many corporate, mortgage and consumer loans linked to benchmark government debt. Both Japan and the UK have begun buying back their government bonds in order to increase money supply in the economy. It does not seem that the Fed will say that they are ready to undertake these measures though, and will instead leave open the possibility as they did in their January statement.

7:04	Nick Nasad - CMS:  let me take some questions as we are about 10 minutes away from the release of the statement

7:04	[Comment From Guest] what so you think about the moe in EURUSD, will there be a follow through or just acorrection

7:04	FXstreet.com:  CMS General Research page

7:05	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the action overnight was very interesting in the EUR/USD pair as the Euro gained despite risk aversion in most of the other charts and currency pairs.

7:06	Nick Nasad - CMS:  i think a good portion of that is speculation that the Fed will say they will increase the rate at which they buy asset-backed securities, leading to a increase in supply of money which could lead to a decrease in price if demand stays the same.

7:06	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we are seeing a continuation of Monday's rally following a period of consolidation yesterday

7:07	Nick Nasad - CMS:  and though it may not happen today, i have the pair moving to at least 1.33 before the pair begins a counter-rally in the greenbacks direction.

7:07	[Comment From Woi] What is your prediction /EURUSD during FOMC meet?

7:08	Nick Nasad - CMS:  i have been taught not to try and predict what will happen, but rather to anticipate the different scenarios and how they will play out.

7:09	Nick Nasad - CMS:  what we are looking for is langugage on wehter the Fed will increase its rate of purchases of asset-backed securiteis and wethere buying of treasuries is mentioned in the statement (even if its an open ended statement to have this option on teh table.)

7:09	[Comment From Guest] how will it impact eur usd and GBP usd

7:10	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the pound saw a steep sell off overnight as its employment data came in far below expectations, though the GBP/USD pair saw a strong bounce near the beginning of US trading.

7:10	Nick Nasad - CMS:  i think the Pound should remain pressured , and a retest of the 1.37 level could be in order.

7:11	FXstreet.com:  Let's see what you all think about the outcome of today's meeting...

7:11	Will the FOMC keep the benchmark rates? Yes, the FOMC will hold the ongoing rates  ( 76% ) No, they will hike it 25bps to 0.50%  ( 16% ) No, they will hike it by 50bps to 0.75%.  ( 4% ) No, they wiill hike it by 75bps to 1.00%  ( 4% )

7:13	Nick Nasad - CMS:  my expectation is that the Fed will hold rates at the current 0-0.25% target range

7:13	Nick Nasad - CMS:  and they have signaled that rates will stay at that low level for an extended time.

7:13	[Comment From santosh] due you think that has got anything to do with QE on tres?

7:14	FXstreet.com:  1 min left

7:15	Nick Nasad - CMS:  there seems to be a move towads greenback strenght prior to the release.

7:16	Nick Nasad - CMS:  sorry had a technical issue.

7:17	Nick Nasad - CMS:  santosh thats a very good point, and i think any move towards quantitative easing will pressure the dollar, the same way it has pressured the Pound when the Bank of England began their program.

7:17	FXstreet.com:  No change

7:17	FXstreet.com:  0.25

7:17	Nick Nasad - CMS:  http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20090318a.htm

7:17	Nick Nasad - CMS:  here is a link to the release..

7:18

Nick Nasad - CMS:  To provide greater support to mortgage lending and housing markets, the Committee decided today to increase the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet further by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, bringing its total purchases of these securities to up to $1.25 trillion this year, and to increase its purchases of agency debt this year by up to $100 billion to a total of up to $200 billion. Moreover, to help improve conditions in private credit markets, the Committee decided to purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months.

7:18	FXstreet.com:  CMS Forex, today’s Sponsor also produces expert analysis, market research and daily market news coverage with videos and reports. Browse the following URLs to learn and take profit from their expertise.

7:19	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the Eur/usd has surged on this news as the Fed said they will purchase tresuries adn announced other increases in purchasese of asset-backed securities

7:19	Nick Nasad - CMS:  wow, we hit 1.33 in a huge 5 minute candle.

7:20	Nick Nasad - CMS:  teh greenback is being pressured on all fronts, the USD/JPy hsa plummeted to 96.60

7:21	[Comment From Guest] Do you expect a very strong bounce to 1,38 like citigroup telling us or just a bounce to 1,33 and then back to 1,23

7:22	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the swiftness of this reaction means many traders and institutions are betting in one direction.

7:23	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we are seeing a pause now but unless this is a gross overreaction, the dollar will remain pressured by these actions.

7:23	[Comment From luka] what about USDCAD

7:24	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the greenback weakness is helping the Loonie, it has set a new low for this week, and with a downward channel setting up starting on March 10/11th.., a target could be 1.25.

7:25

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7:25	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the current area is horizontal support from mid February, which may stall the pair's current fall.

7:26	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we are seeing some retraction in the USD/JPY, but the Euro and POund are mainly holding onto their gains.

7:28	Nick Nasad - CMS:  equities in the US are responding well to the news, pulling the main dow indes back into positive territory, and accelerating gains in the nasdaq and s&p 500

7:30

Nick Nasad - CMS:  the importance of the Fed's annoucnement is that by buying Treasuries the Fed will to exert pressure designed to lower rates on the many corporate, mortgage and consumer loans linked to benchmark government debt. That will be positive for increasing money supply and boosting lending.

7:31	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we seem to have gotten past the stops and limits traders have placed at the or slighlty above the 1.33 level,

7:32	Nick Nasad - CMS:  and we are entering a second phase of dollar weakness

7:33	Nick Nasad - CMS:  follow through is very strong, as the markets seem shocked by this annoucnement.

7:33	FXstreet.com:  Nick, we're seeing big movements. How the Fed decision to buy Treasurys affect the market sentiment?

7:34	Nick Nasad - CMS:  well we are seeing very strong greenback weakness, as this announcement should beneefit most other assets, boosting risk sentiment. this was definetly a crowd pleaser from the Fed.

7:34	[Comment From Guest] the effect of SNB injection did not last even a week,,, sharp sell off,,,

7:35	Nick Nasad - CMS:  yes, the SNB must not be pleased.. though the Swiss Franc is holding agains the Euro

7:36	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the USD/CHF has hit support from February 3rd

7:36	[Comment From Guest] can we see a retracement in euro dollor?

7:37	FXstreet.com:  Interest rates unchanged at 0.25%, Fed will buy Treasurys and more MBS - News by FXstreet.com: http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=37e36a00-d519-4f44-b562-e61058d5970e

7:37	Nick Nasad - CMS:  i think such a sharp move will call for a retracement as weve gotten far away from teh established trendlines from teh past 2 weeks, and more shrot term moving averages.

7:38	Nick Nasad - CMS:  teh current zone we are in was a very importnat level in early January, which helped fuel a greenback rally. the pair retested this zone near January 16th and again near January 28th, but has not done so since then.

7:39	Nick Nasad - CMS:  i think more longer term traders have entry orders, and stops and limits that are now being triggered.

7:39	[Comment From Guest] I dont see why this move in the eur/usd will persist, lots of this quantitative easing was probably priced in since the currency pair broke above 1.26

7:40	Nick Nasad - CMS:  i think there the strength we have been seeing in the EUR/USD had a lot to do with the recent rally in global equities as most traders did not expect this statement to buy treasuries to come out of the today's fed meeting.

7:40	Nick Nasad - CMS:  therefore, teh trend we were seeing since 1.26 has now accelerated.

7:40	[Comment From wayne] wow...i made more today that I have all week!

7:41	Nick Nasad - CMS:  congrats, such volatility is def. good for forex traders

7:41	[Comment From Guest] will the eur/usd go bearish again............

7:42	Nick Nasad - CMS:  a turnaroudn in the mood of investor's which has become more bullish recently and a return to safe haven would help the dollar,

7:42	[Comment From Guest] now that the Loonie touched the 1.25 mark, will it continue to go futher down?

7:43	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the loonie is acting nicely with teh downward channel that was established recently.. if you connect highs from March 9th and 12th, and project a parrelel line to teh low on march 10th..

7:44	Nick Nasad - CMS:  today's fall stalled right at that line of support.

7:44	[Comment From Guest] USD panic sell across the board ,,, EURGBP spike is pretty interesting to me

7:44	Nick Nasad - CMS:  yes, the euro seems to be a big winner from this news

7:46	Nick Nasad - CMS:  and though this annoucnement was very surprising, i do feel a sense that perhaps markets are seein a bit of "panic" or perhaps overreaction

7:46	[Comment From Guest] it is very strange to see gpb moving upwards, thye have such bad data today and despite that it is moving up:)

7:47	Nick Nasad - CMS:  yes, its all relative sometimes, but such a surprise annoucnemnet by the Fed, to buy 300 billion in treasuries overshadowed the news from overnight.

7:47	[Comment From Guest] Do you see cable holding on to it's gains?

7:48	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the gbp/usd has some more clearer resistance levels from two weeks ago that should limit further gains by the Pound, and as we mentioned the weak unemployment data adds to a sense that the UK economy is still facing a deepenign recession.

7:49	Nick Nasad - CMS:  so, though the rest of today's session may show it retaining its gains, its important to see what happens going forward after the shock of today's annoucnemnet wears off.

7:49

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7:50	[Comment From Guest from Seattle] Is it anticipated that the EUR/USD will break in the near future the 200 day EMA?

7:50	Nick Nasad - CMS:  thoguh i feel the 1.35 level should play as important resistance, a move towards the 200 m.a. may mean a repeat of the surge in teh EUro we saw in December.

7:51	Nick Nasad - CMS:  which has an upside near 1.40/1.45..

7:52	Nick Nasad - CMS:  it seems that we have reached another pause in the dollar's fall.

7:55	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Though the Dollar is falling, the Fed may have done the right thing as lower yields on 10-year treasury notes will help lower mortgage rates, improving the hosuing market and supporting the economy.

7:55	FXstreet.com:  Forex: EUR/USD climbed up 300 pips after Fed decision - News by FXstreet.com

7:55	[Comment From Guest] somehow weaker USD that can boost US exports is welcomed, furhter oil is not so expensive,,

7:56	Nick Nasad - CMS:  a weaker dollar could boost exports, but the global economy needs to see a rebound before exports increase. we have seen a strong contraction in global trade from Japan, to Germany to the US.

7:56	[Comment From wayne] amazing how volital this is....this almost makes me beleive that technical analysis has nothing to do with currencies anymore...its almost all emotional perception and news

7:58	Nick Nasad - CMS:  technical analysis can help to lay out important levels, and for the most part a technician believes that price reflects all news. the fact that we had such a strong response means that the market was pricing in the new information very quickly

7:58	[Comment From Guest from Seattle] What I don't understand is the logic that people would rather sell USD and buy other currencies as the US Treasuries will give higher yields by the FED announcement. Why is this so bearish on the USD?

7:59	Nick Nasad - CMS:  i think what you are missing here is that, when there is an increased demand for treasuries, such as with today's announcement and treasuries rally, it lowers the yield.

8:00

Nick Nasad - CMS:  and there are other factors to consider.. that the Fed will be expanding its balance sheet further which is dollar negative, and that the news was very well recieved by equities markets which reduced risk aversion (a major reason the greenback has been stronger recently- well before the current rally in equities)

8:01	[Comment From Nour] As dollar index on strong support now , do u thin it will break under

8:01	Nick Nasad - CMS:  i think today's moves might have found some exhaustion and though im not looking at the dollar index, if we have come against strong support that may the thing that stalls today's rally..

8:02	Nick Nasad - CMS:  today's selling of greenbacks i mean

8:02	[Comment From wayne] wow 300 pips..any recommendation on getting out.??...I was in with 3 currencies....when it jumped and it was moving so fast...my trade request kept expiring...lost about 60 pips in second on each pair...but still made good for today!

8:03	Nick Nasad - CMS:  i dont want to give you advice, but if you have the chance to scale down your positions and take profit it could be a very good idea.

8:03	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the liquidity in teh markets seems to have dissapated somewhat, though currencies like the USD/CAD are pushing further down.

8:03	Nick Nasad - CMS:  even the EUR/USD is still at its high for the day

8:04	Nick Nasad - CMS:  so maybe traders are trying to touch the 1.35 level in that pair.

8:04	Nick Nasad - CMS:  so, its really up to your strategy when you entered the trade and what plan you had for your trade prior to when you opened it.

8:04	[Comment From Guest from Seattle] Yes, I had it backwards, sorry. Understand now. Thanks.

8:05	Nick Nasad - CMS:  glad i can help.

8:05	[Comment From Palii Denis] After emotions pass away from traders, what is the projected retracement level of Eur/Usd (according to you)?

8:06	Nick Nasad - CMS:  with such a strong move its gonna be hard to tell which support levels will hold, but a move back to 1.33 a 50% retracement of the runup following the announcement could be in order.

8:06	Nick Nasad - CMS:  that was teh level wehre many saw the pair heading to prior to the surprise annoucnement, so that could be a place where i woudl ay "expected" resistance can turn to support.

8:07	Nick Nasad - CMS:  where i would say*

8:07	[Comment From Guest] Japan is not happy again,,, lol seems very far 100.00 level. almost there though

8:08	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Japan would prefer to have a weaker currency to help boost exports but seems like 100 acted as strong resistance,. we are establishing a downward channel with today's moves reaching the bottom line of support.

8:08	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we are seeing some further follow through in the Euro and Pound

8:09	Nick Nasad - CMS:  greenback bears are not done just yet.

8:09	Nick Nasad - CMS:  im getting alot of questions about retracements

8:11

Nick Nasad - CMS:  we have to wait for this greenback weakness to fade, which means waiting for a candle in teh oppositie direction of the rally in whatever time frame you are looking at... though its enticing to sell such a sharp move, someitmes its like catchign a falling knife.. though you may miss the initial move, its better to not get caught on the other side of such a biased rally.

8:12	Nick Nasad - CMS:  for instance, 10 minutes ago, while we saw a pause we may have though a sell would be good, but we are seeing some follow through, its better to be patient and see price action confirming a counter-rally before placing an order.. thats a more conservative approach.

8:13	FXstreet.com:  GBP/USD jumped up to 1.4250 after Fed statement - News by FXstreet.com

8:13	[Comment From Sebouh] The Euro today reminds me of the December rally last year when it jumped from 1.26 to 1475 in a matter of two weeks and after that it went back to 1.25. Again I think market is insane just like the policy makers who are managing the financial crisis.

8:14	Nick Nasad - CMS:  sebouh, its true that markets can be volatile, but in december it was the Fed strong move to move to a zirp (zero interest rate policy) policy

8:15	Nick Nasad - CMS:  and today's news revolves a very surprise announcement regarding buying treasuries..

8:16	Nick Nasad - CMS:  so, its not random, though currency markets can get pretty volatile.. i think you may be harsh on policy makers, as they are trying their best, and for teh most part this move should help teh economy, though it may have some unintented consequnces in the longer term.

8:17

[Comment From Sebouh] I have a feeling that this equity hipe will run its course by end of April and markets will go back to the fundamentals. I expect short term dollar weakness but medium term and long term the dollar will again shine. Let us not forget we are still in a serious crisis anyone things that the crisis will end this year is simply illusional

8:18	Nick Nasad - CMS:  yes, that was the main reason that the greenback faught its way back to the 1.25 level after that December rally.

8:19	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we are straying a little from the live coverage with these question, but I think its importnat to talk about some of the longer term impacts.

8:19	[Comment From Lanre] But are they not adding gasoline to the fire?

8:19	[Comment From Lanre] Too much easy money cause the problem now they are adding more money to the system how will that solve it

8:20	FXstreet.com:  USD/JPY falls below 96.00 after Fed releases, test 96.65 support - News by FXstreet.com

8:20

Nick Nasad - CMS:  Lanre, theres a difference between easy money when everyone wants to borrow it and use it.. the housing bubble in the US.. whereas now tehres easy money but not as many willing takers.. in fact banks are so strapped for money and have bad assets on tehir balance sheets that they are limiting lending for things like homes, cars, and other loans.

8:20	Nick Nasad - CMS:  what the Fed is trying to do is lower the cost to borrow, and to try and unclog these credit markets..

8:21	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the flip side is that the balance sheet of the Fed increases, there are fiscal stimulus packages to pay for, and all of this can lead to a weakness in the greenback when things return to a more "normal" state of things

8:22	[Comment From Mark] Is this it for the Greenback? Will it get weaker from here onwards? Your opinion

8:22	[Comment From Guest from Seattle] Let's not forget, many economist strongly believe Europe is MUCH more worse off than the US and doing MUCH less about their economy than the US. I agree long term the dollar will remain King.

8:23

Nick Nasad - CMS:  as we saw the last two months, when things got panicky and investors turned risk averse they fled to the dollar for safety.. that makes me think that the Dollar is not done being the world's global reserve currency. though it may be pressured it still retains a sense of safe haven that will help it through 2009 (as someone mentioned before, we are not out of this crisis yet)

8:23	[Comment From yogesh] i think 1-35 is a resis for euro

8:24	Nick Nasad - CMS:  yes, seems like that is the last big of gains the pair may see today. its a nice psychological level, so lets see if we start seeing a pull back

8:24	[Comment From Lanre] Eventually lowering the cost of borrow... will that not lead to the same situation. Bad companies need to pass out naturally and be replaced by well run and profitable ones

8:25	Nick Nasad - CMS:  this is tough to do with huge banks that are intertwined with each other through a globalized system of products.

8:26	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the failure of lehman brothers for instance led to a huge market panic..

8:26	Nick Nasad - CMS:  so as a policy maker you have to walk a fine line..

8:26	[Comment From Guest] what's the target this night on your opinion ?????? euro

8:27	Nick Nasad - CMS:  ok everyone i am running out of time

8:28	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I think we can expect a pull back to 1.333

8:29	Nick Nasad - CMS:  for eur/usd prior to the european session, but its hard to predict things after such a volatile day, instead i would watch your charts and see how today's action changed your technical analysis, or what new information you may have gleamed from your technical tools.

8:29	[Comment From Mark] Thanks Nick for your time. It was knowledgeable.

8:29	[Comment From Guest] thank you Nick! you are the best.. appreciate you

8:29	Nick Nasad - CMS:  thank you for the kind comments

8:29	FXstreet.com:  I would like to specially thank CMS Forex, today’s sponsor, for their support. Open a live account with CMS with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now. Use the following links to follow up about today’s main market news.

8:30	Nick Nasad - CMS:  and with that, i would like to wish all of you a good rest of the week and success in your trading.

8:30	FXstreet.com:  It's time to sum up Today's live coverage! The Fed have decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.25% and will buy Treasuries and more MBS. The results of such a news provoked big movements in the Forex markets, especially the USD crosses.

8:31	FXstreet.com:  We would like to thank to Nick Nasad for his participation today. It has been a great pleasure to have you today with us!

8:31	Nick Nasad - CMS:  thank you very much, its my pleasure

8:31	FXstreet.com:  Thank you all for joining the live coverage today! I hope to see you all again in the next live coverage!

8:32	Nick Nasad - CMS:  bye everyone, and thank you for the kind comments and your particiaption and questions, see you next time!

8:32	[Comment From Lanre] Thanks

8:32	[Comment From Guest from Seattle] Thanks Nick

8:32	[Comment From wayne] great!...so this is done for every interest rate coverage???

8:33	FXstreet.com:  We will do another Live Coverage next week... for the US GDP data! On Thursday the 26th!

8:34	FXstreet.com:  Thanks Nick and everyone for your great participation today! Bye for now - See you next time!

9:04

Trading Plans - Rules for a Short Term Trader

Expert: Steve Misic, Instructor at Online Trading Academy
Moderator: Maud Gilson

Summary:
Just as the long term forex trader needs a plan of attack when trading the forex market, the short term forex trader must plan for additional challenges due to the immediate reaction to economic data and news.
The short term forex trader must learn to control emotions, boredom and fatigue when spending many hours in front of the screen. This webinar will discuss strategies for planning short term forex trades, as well as tips for staying focused when trading.

Low Risk Breakout Trading in Forex

Expert: Sam Seiden, Stocks and Commodities Instructor, Author and Mentor at Online Trading Academy
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
During this session, we will discuss the low risk way to trade breakouts in the fast moving Forex markets. There is a reason why most traders lose money trading breakouts. We will cover this and more during Thursday's event.

The Weather Report: Ichimoku Cloud Trading

Expert: Chris Capre, Founder at Second Skies LLC
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
Many traders have had challenges trading the JPY pairs. However the Japanese traders have had large amounts of success in trading their native currency. This is not just due to familiarity, but the approach and indicators they use to measure key levels for these pairs - the Ichimoku Cloud.

This indicator is not only easy to learn, but highly accurate in giving JPY trading signals. When one learns how to use it correctly, one can build a very high accuracy and profit ratio trading the JPY pairs which can be some of the most volatile. Taking this class can give you a chance to master trading the yen and learn a unique approach to trading the asian pairs as a whole.

Ichimoku is included in our "Live chart Panel": http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/charts-panel/

BoE and ECB Live Coverage

BoE and ECB Live Coverage with Valeria Bednarik

(03/05/2009)

  

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11:51

FXstreet.com:  Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's BoE and ECB Interest Rates Decisions Live Coverage will start in 10 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Valeria Bednarik who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. She will be giving us a direct picture fo the market status.

11:51

FXstreet.com:  Valeria Bednarik has been an active Forex trader for the last 3 years, specializing in the International Foreign Exchange Market. She also graduates in the Universidad Catolica del Salvador, in Argentina, as a Public Account, specializing in financials and cost managements. She currently manages an important clients portfolio for IFX Markets, Boston and is senior trader manager at Molfx-Management; besides she works training new traders with Trader College LLC specializing in technical analysis, for the English speaking community.

11:52

FXstreet.com:  The BoE is widely expected to cut the ongoing interest rates by 50bps to 0.50% that would be the lowest rate in the bank's history since it was establish in 1869. we have seen a deterioating economic situation Today we have to pay close attention whether or not selling pressure on the Pound will emerge again. Regarding to the ECB, the market forecast the ECB to cut the ongoing interest rate 50bps to 1.50%. It will be important to determine how the ECB considers the current economic situation. Trichet speech is scheduled at 13:30GMT.

11:53

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi everyone, welcome to this live coverage! as always, is an honour to be here today wirh you

11:53

[Comment From Davis] what is the trend for major currencies, after BoE and ECB cut rate decision?

11:54

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi Davis! I expect if the cuts are actually cut, to see the bearish trend continue in both pairs, despite any initial spike

11:55

[Comment From Guest] what pairs will be the most volatile after the boe interest rate...........

11:55

FXstreet.com:  Hi everyone !!! great see you again and thank you for joining the live coverage again! Hi Valeria!!!!! Well i would like to ask your opinion on the BoE rate decision. Let's vote the polls!

11:55

Valeria Bednarik:  I believe that first of all involving Euro and Gbp, watch also also for CHF and CAD

11:56

Will the BoE cut the bench mark interest rate? Yes, the BoE will cut it by 25bps to 0.75%.  ( 8% ) Yes the BoE will cut it by 50bps to 0.50%.  ( 69% ) Yes, on an aggressive cut it by 75bps.  ( 4% ) No, the BoE will rather hold the ongoing rate.  ( 12% ) No, the BoE will rather hike it by 25bps.  ( 0% ) No, the BoE will rather hike it by 50bps.  ( 8% )

11:56

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11:57

FXstreet.com:  CMS General Research page

11:57

FXstreet.com:  Daily video about the main market news

11:57

FXstreet.com:  Expert Analysis of Today's Market

11:57

FXstreet.com:  Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead

11:57

FXstreet.com:  3 minutes to go with the BoE decision.

11:58

[Comment From KB] hi, if rates unchanged, we expect a push?

11:58

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11:58

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11:59

FXstreet.com:  1 minute to go!

11:59

Valeria Bednarik:  The fact is that i'm seeing some sell the rumor market reaction, and -I don't expect a hold, but probably yes, a hold will turn majors up

11:59

[Comment From vivek] do you think that things will be similar to last times rate cut - as in gbpusd rises a goof few 100 pips following cut announcements?

11:59

Valeria Bednarik:   Hi Vivek, could yes, but resume downside trend after a couple of hours.

12:00

[Comment From Johnny] What do you expact EURGBP after the rate decision? thx

12:00

FXstreet.com:   0.50%

12:00

Valeria Bednarik:   ok rate cut is here, Jonny, let's see your question later!

12:00

FXstreet.com:  50bps cut

12:01

Valeria Bednarik:  As jsut comment first reaction is a bullish spike, to the key zone between 1.4135/60

12:01

Valeria Bednarik:  but the pair is quickly aproaching to 1.4060.. let's see which one will be culnerate earlier.

12:02

FXstreet.com:  The BoE has decided to cut the benchmark interest rates by 50bps to 0.50% as widely expected.

12:02

Valeria Bednarik:  I expect EUR GBP to hold ranges during the announcements.. from a technical perspective, the pair need to clearly brak above 0.9000 to continues previous ascendnat trend

12:02

[Comment From Davis] how about australian dollar? is is safe to buy at this leve;? thanx

12:03

Valeria Bednarik:  i don't think so.. I rather wait for lower levels closer to 0.6200 to attempt a buy there

12:03

[Comment From Guest] How could CAD respond?

12:04

Valeria Bednarik:  Interesting question! Lately Cad has been acting as a mirror of GBP./USD, meaning reacting along. If Gbp breaks supports and fall, Cad will probably fall too (pair rise in charts) and we could see an aproach to the huge 1.3000 resistance zone

12:04

[Comment From Guest] Hi, What is the best time to go for a trade?

12:05

Valeria Bednarik:  Just for me, after is over! all over!! Trichet included.. is not the last chance market will gave us... Seriously, I rather wait at least a 15 minutes candle close to decide a trade.

12:05

[Comment From i think no movement at al] i think no movement at alll

12:06

FXstreet.com:  here please take a look at the office note www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/news/2009/019.htm

12:06

Valeria Bednarik:  Give market a few minutes more

12:07

Valeria Bednarik:  Gbp needs to clearly break the base of an inverted flag, or small chanel around 1.4010 take alook at 1 hours charts

12:07

Valeria Bednarik:  break under will send the pair close to the minimus zone @1.3946

12:07

[Comment From vivek] what is your advice on once the cuts if any are announced? watch 1 or 2 5 min bars n go with the trend?

12:08

Valeria Bednarik:   Hi Vivek! trully, I rather wait for things to settle, but well going with the downward trend seems the wisest thing to do

12:08

[Comment From bond] what impact wil it have on euro/usd

12:08

Valeria Bednarik:  Euro will wait for Trichet's speech

12:08

[Comment From Anthony] And they will do quantitative easing... should this push the GBP down ?

12:08

Valeria Bednarik:  Yes, probalby

12:08

[Comment From Qasim] Is this the time to buy GBP/USD?

12:09

Valeria Bednarik:  I don't think so Quasim, if 1.4010 gives up.. watch for the 1.38/1.39 levels to buy there

12:09

[Comment From vivek] any thoughts on gbpusd at present? bearish trend ?

12:09

Valeria Bednarik:   Yes vivek, yet, let's wait and see the break of levels

12:09

[Comment From bond] how abt euro/usd ? is it expected to test support levels, is it good time to short?

12:10

Valeria Bednarik:  As said before, I rather wait till things are in fact here, and no take chances there.Euro must move under 1.2520 to regain bearish momentum

12:10

[Comment From Rohit Sahni] What do u think about gold?

12:11

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi Rohit! I will ask my good friend CVJ to answer that for you! he follows gold, I don't really! give us a while

12:11

[Comment From Errol] Do you thin ECB will cut and what direction will the Euro go?

12:11

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12:12

Valeria Bednarik:  I think really yes, ECB will cut rates.. and Euro will resume downtrend

12:12

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12:12

Valeria Bednarik:  Here is CVJ's answeer about gold

12:12

Valeria Bednarik:  Gold is "consolidating" a bit in the near-term considering the "easing" of the recent China flows into Gold... but medium and longer-term Bullishness will prevail as long as negative risk is still in the Global Climate...

12:13

[Comment From gas] boe is throwing everything at the problem, dont know about the gbp/usd but i think gby/jpy will continue its uptrend

12:13

Valeria Bednarik:  That's because Japanese yen is falling faster acrross the board

12:14

[Comment From Rohit Sahni] what do you think about INR (Indian Rupee)?

12:14

Valeria Bednarik:  Sorry my friend, I don't really now about it!

12:14

[Comment From Guest] when is the rate annouced

12:15

Valeria Bednarik:  in around 30 minutes

12:15

[Comment From narayan patel] what effect comes on commodities , if boe and ecb will reduce intrest rates?

12:16

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12:16

Valeria Bednarik:  Euro is getting close to the mentioned level, while GBP is also fighting the 1.4060.

12:17

Valeria Bednarik:   About commodities

12:17

Valeria Bednarik:  Not a Marked Effect as a whole... as the Euro and Pound specifically are not very tightly correlated to Commodities as a whole...even Gold and Crude were minimally effected right at the Release....

12:17

Valeria Bednarik:  indicating that part of the cuts were already priced in, if you know what i mean

12:17

[Comment From Amit] What is the view on the Euro-$... has been very range bound 1.2455 to 1.266. If ECB cuts by 50bps, where do we see it moving?

12:18

Valeria Bednarik:  I believe to the downside. Under the base of the range, the pair could attempt a retest of the 1.2330 minimums zone. Remember tomorrow we have NFP also in the states,

12:19

Valeria Bednarik:  with again bad numbers expected.. and market is correlated with stocks lately so a fall in employment will probably send stocks down again

12:19

Valeria Bednarik:  and amazingly dollar up because of the save haven condition the currency has

12:20

Valeria Bednarik:  Gbp is unable to move higher... should start falling soon, seems market is expecting ECB decision for the next move

12:20

[Comment From gas] againt jpy too ?

12:20

Valeria Bednarik:  Sorry, against what? there are lot's of question and I try to attend them all. Please be more specific

12:20

[Comment From Davis] is it safe to sell gbp/usd?

12:21

Valeria Bednarik:   Under the mentioned levels, and after ECB will be safe

12:21

[Comment From arun kandal] should we wait ti nfp data to buy gbp

12:21

Valeria Bednarik:  Yes Arum I rather do so.. let's see however how the day ends today.

12:22

[Comment From arun kandal] should we wait for nfp data to take any position in gbp and at wht level buy could try

12:24

Valeria Bednarik:  Yes! no time for longer term decision untill storm is over! this volatile movements we see in market in rate days or with the US NFP,

12:24

FXstreet.com:  Valeria dedicates herself to a blog at FXstreet.com. She covers daily market view. I am a big fan of it. Please follow up with her blog at blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/2009/03/05/eurusd-technical-points-5/

12:24

Valeria Bednarik:  usually are good for rebounds in key levels if they get reached...

12:26

Valeria Bednarik:  Sorry! lost conection for a while but back here

12:26

Valeria Bednarik:  Gbp is entering the break down zone, and see the mirror reaction in USD/CAD

12:26

[Comment From Carlos] What about EUR/GBP time to go bearish?

12:27

Valeria Bednarik:   As i said before, the pair is moving in ranges, almost an horizontal channel.

12:27

Valeria Bednarik:  Under 0.8800 could be a good longer term bearish oportunity.

12:28

[Comment From Aaron] Would the rate cute spur a rally in the stock markets, increasing risk appetite and thereby increasing the demand for the pound or the euro? Or would the cut decrease the attractiveness of these currencies?

12:28

FXstreet.com:  in 15 minutes the ECB interest rate desicion. so let me know your opinion about it!. let's vote the polls again!

12:29

Will the ECB low the bench mark interest rate? Yes, the ECB will cut it by 25bps  ( 12% ) Yes, the ECB will cut it by 50bps  ( 68% ) Yes, on an aggressive cut it by moe than 75bps.  ( 16% ) No, the ECB will rather hold the ongoing rate.  ( 4% ) No, the ECB will rather hike it by 25bps  ( 0% )

12:30

Valeria Bednarik:  Great question Aaron! I don't think rates will directly affect stocks markets, but more like decrease the attractiveness. In fact, we should see how stocks are performing right now, after the first cut. But a red close in Europe will put pressure in Dow Jones. Futures are already expected to open to the downside meanwhile

12:31

[Comment From Anthony] Could the EURUSD actually decline if the ECB stubbornly refuses to cut again?

12:32

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi Anthony! Trichet already recong that he may have acted sooner..At this point every and each messure seems to be to late, and not enough

12:33

Valeria Bednarik:  We are expeculating about market probable reaction, but from a purely technical perspective, I can't see Euro rising yet

12:33

[Comment From Amit] Valeria, you think downtrend in Euro-$ will continue? What levels can we expect

12:34

Valeria Bednarik:   I expect the downard to continue, and as posted in blog, under 1.2520 expect a retest of the 1.2450 lows. Break under 1.2400, will take the pair to 1.2330 importan minimum zone

12:34

FXstreet.com:  10 minutes to go . ECB interest rate decision.

12:35

Valeria Bednarik:  I read a question about cooper, and I can't find it right now,

12:35

Valeria Bednarik:   demand will rise do to China and the Asian-Pacific Rimneeds slowly begining to rebound in the longer-term... Palladium, too.

12:35

[Comment From gas] equities? what´s your view?

12:36

Valeria Bednarik:  They are really at a bottom, but that does not mean they will stop falling. DJIA needs to regain the 8000 level to really become bullish, and that's around 1200 points. Till then, bearish for me

12:36

[Comment From Carlos] when is time to short on EUR/GBP ?

12:37

Valeria Bednarik:  You know, I'm more a technical trader, so I short the pair once i get info form my charts.. if you place a Fibo on weekly charts, from let me see

12:38

Valeria Bednarik:  lows around 0.7700 to high at 0.9800 you wil find out that the pair corrected to the 61.8% and return to the 38.2% this week

12:39

Valeria Bednarik:  That 38.2% zone around 0,900 had gave a good rebound till now.. and should hold the upside

12:39

[Comment From Navin] wat abt crude oil?

12:39

Valeria Bednarik:  Crude will continue to fall in the near-term if it stays inversely coupled to the strong Dollar... In the immediate term... we will continue to retrace a little bit.....Long-Term looks for the $60-$70 level as a compromise with demand and OPEC.

12:40

[Comment From arun kandal] gbp wil go 1.3900

12:40

Valeria Bednarik:  I expect so yes

12:40

[Comment From Batcom] Where might I find some free real time news release weblinks?

12:41

Valeria Bednarik:  Have you seen the new Fxstreet.com home page? there they have dow jones, and other stuff, but most of the services you ask for are for pay

12:41

[Comment From bond] where do u think euro/usd to be in a week from now

12:42

FXstreet.com:  3 minutes to go

12:42

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12:43

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12:43

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12:43

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12:43

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12:43

Valeria Bednarik:  If i cann for sure answer that question, I will be trading, not here be sure. Meaning.. I can tell you i see it bearish, and resuming down trend. I can also see the down trend is getting exhausted yet with no signs of turn. I expect a retest of the 1.2330 zone, but that's as much as I can say about future.

12:43

[Comment From Davis] what is the target for gold?

12:43

Valeria Bednarik:  Near-Term 920's.... Mid-Term back to test above 1000... long long term 2000's......

12:43

[Comment From Aram] is it time to short cable?

12:44

Valeria Bednarik:  not yet. see the pair testing the support zone many times, still unable to break under. Market is waiting for ECB sand Trichet

12:44

FXstreet.com:  1 minute to go

12:44

[Comment From mafacifa] how will the ECB announcement impact gbp/usd movement?

12:45

Valeria Bednarik:  Ecb annoucement impact is not as important lately as later speech. But I believe most currencies will fall if the ECB cut rates and the speech focus on slowdown

12:45

FXstreet.com:  50 bps cut to 1.50%

12:45

[Comment From Rohit Sahni] plz send me the web link to do continue chating in future!!

12:45

Valeria Bednarik:  Ok I will ask moderator to repost the blog´s link

12:46

FXstreet.com:  The ECB cuts 50bps to 1.50% from 2.00%

12:46

FXstreet.com:  Here yyou can see her blogblogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/2009/03/05/eurusd-technical-points-5/

12:46

Valeria Bednarik:  ok! ECB TIME! First spike is sending Euro up

12:47

Valeria Bednarik:  yet only above 1.2620 zone we could see the pair more bullish, to the key 1.2660 zone

12:47

[Comment From David] in the longer view are you bearish on the eur verus usd

12:49

Valeria Bednarik:  David, I don't trade longer term. Honestly, don't like it much. And actual levels are not good for such trades. As said before, market is giving some shy, really shy at this tme, signs of exhaustion to the downside. I rather continue with short term trades at this levels.

12:49

[Comment From David] is it the best safe haven currency

12:50

Valeria Bednarik:  Do you mean dollar? well yes.. at this time IT IS. Market change, but as discussed in previous live coverage, Treasuries are the "100% safe investment" market has.. probably small winnings there, but sure in turmoil times

12:51

[Comment From Farhad] Sorry, What is the mentioned levels for GBP/USD?

12:51

Valeria Bednarik:  1.4060 and 1.4010 floor of an inverted flag

12:51

[Comment From Amit] if we all expect the ECB to cut, NFP to be bad, stocks to fall, Euro to be downward -- why is the Euro still holding on between 1.25 & 1.26 ?

12:52

Valeria Bednarik:   Exactly Amit! some shy signs of a turn? still no confirmations but as you say pair is holding here.

12:52

[Comment From Guest] I think about going short with EUR/GBP upon ECB release,

12:53

Valeria Bednarik:  ok, let's see the levels you like there

12:53

[Comment From glen] Sorry, I not agree with you, if ecb cut rate than eur will goes down for a while than see costumer confidace will up than eur will strong more than you think

12:53

Valeria Bednarik:  Glen, you can disagree as much as you like, we are sharing views here!

12:54

Valeria Bednarik:  you are right about Confidence: Euro zone needs it desperatly, and rate cuts aims for that

12:55

Valeria Bednarik:  the whole idea of cutting rates, is to exhacerbate the so damage confidence and cosumption, yet at the same time,

12:55

Valeria Bednarik:  makes the curerncy less atractive for investors, and the measure is not enough to solve the problems that are coausing unemployment and drops in production and so on..

12:56

[Comment From arun kandal] how far these events can drag the gbp atleast today

12:56

Valeria Bednarik:  Under 1.4010 consier the lows 1.3900'

12:56

[Comment From dl] Hi the Euro sems to be well supported at the base established over the last nov tillnow ard price level of 123.34 and recently 124.56 ( recent low). not able to penetrate inspite of the fears of Eastern Euro Zone banking crisis spilling over to the main EU zone. yesterday was a good 200 pips range and today I feel that it wld make a stab at the low and bounce back up. esp if Monsiur Trichet says that he is going to pause for next month.

12:57

Valeria Bednarik:  Tks Dl for the comment.

12:57

[Comment From Berat] Dont you think 1.25 is a good boottom for eur/usd?

12:57

[Comment From Berat] Do you believe the EUR/USD rate cut has been priced in, and that the market might focus on data for days to come

12:58

Valeria Bednarik:  At the moment seems so Berat, yet in the midle of this volatile, and to call a bottom we should wait aat least to the daily close

12:59

Valeria Bednarik:  Always cuts are priced in lately, and market is more focused on stocks than data. But as said earlier, marlet usually waits for Trichet speech, and clues about further cuts to react

12:59

[Comment From Davis] why aud and eur starting up?

1:00	Valeria Bednarik:  Not really up.. just a few pips.. market will wait half an hour more

1:00	[Comment From patrick] If the gbp/usd goes down to 1.38 level, will it be a good level to buy???

1:00	Valeria Bednarik:  longer term, low leverage stops under 1.3500 zone? yes at least for me

1:00	[Comment From Davis] what level will gold at?

1:00	FXstreet.com:  here you can see the oficial note of the ECBwww.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2009/html/pr090305.en.html

1:00	Valeria Bednarik:  See previous answers already posted

1:01	[Comment From Dimitris] what's your possible senario for eur/usd midterm

1:02	Valeria Bednarik:  posible test of 1.2330 if today or tomorrow breaks underthis week minimun, and from there, if breaks more bearish pressure if not, probable longer term botton.

1:02	[Comment From Aaron] Do you see some substantial retraction of the USDJPY? Or will this ONLY happen after the pair has hit 100.00?

1:03	Valeria Bednarik:  I see the pair hitting the zoe around 100.50 (weekly highs plus roof of an ascendant channel) before some correction in the pair. Yet no substancial ones. Not for Jpy

1:03	[Comment From patrick] when equities rises, will it weaken the dollar???

1:04	Valeria Bednarik:  As we are living an inverted reaction, yes is the most probable scenario in the short mid term. Relationship will end sooner or later

1:04	[Comment From Dimitris] what's your view on gbp/usd ?

1:04	[Comment From Dimitris] i believe till end of march eur/usd will be 1.2280

1:05	Valeria Bednarik:   Gbp/Usd is telling me nothing at this levels. Above 1.4135/60 congestion zone or under 1.4030/10 i expect more reactions.

1:05	[Comment From Guest] Yes but why , is that coz cut come as cons?

1:06	Valeria Bednarik:  Sorry, English is not my language so please avoid using slang.. i can´t understand the question.. please translate it for me! tks!

1:06	[Comment From gas] like the comment from the cfo of ge capital, shorts are crazy if they think ge is going broke. they will spin off the finance unit and sell it to the us gov,

1:07	Valeria Bednarik:  Hi Gas? you mean who by he? Trichet?

1:07	[Comment From Charles Poluan] what do you think of the relation of gold to crude oil?

1:07	Valeria Bednarik:  Right now it is Inverse... as safe-haven flows will continue into Gold with risk averse climates

1:07	[Comment From David] why does a decrease in the eur rate result in in increase in the eur

1:08	Valeria Bednarik:  Still not bearish not bullish, but if you read upside, you can see we have discuss that previously

1:08	[Comment From Samer] take buy gbp/usd with stop lose is it good idea ?

1:08	Valeria Bednarik:  Not here at this levels

1:08	[Comment From Guest] why doesn't the eur/usd go bearsih.........

1:09	Valeria Bednarik:  It's waiting. Market is waiting for the speech

1:09	[Comment From Anthony] When and how long is Trichet speach?

1:09	Valeria Bednarik:  Starting now, and about 45 minutes including Q&A

1:09	FXstreet.com:  the speech starts at 13:45 GMT

1:10	Valeria Bednarik:  also, remember oild gold relationship is always changing..is too indirect in fact

1:10	Valeria Bednarik:  SORRY my mistake!

1:10	Valeria Bednarik:  startingin 30 minutes so

1:10	[Comment From Guest] What about GBP? it is going up now, what is the resistance? and when is it going to break?

1:10	FXstreet.com:  sorry sarting at 13:30 GMT

1:11	Valeria Bednarik:  Guest... be patient... market won't close after this news.. you have all your life to trade, and remember my words today: this is not the best time to do it. Resistance is the congestion zone between 1.4135 and 1.4160

1:11	[Comment From Vivek] I guess your right...everyone seems to be wating for the speech...I think markets will move much more during and after the speech...rather not trade until after that is over...

1:12	Valeria Bednarik:  exactly Vinesh.. .no need!!! market will be ALWAYS be here! why take risky trades right now?

1:12	[Comment From elbarck] Hello there, I was following the market now, and I can see some signals for Bullish on E/U and Bearish USD/CHF

1:13	Valeria Bednarik:  Hi elbarck! we have been also discussing this.. shy signals but well wait til Trichet finish his speech

1:13	[Comment From elbarck] What do you think :D about that, long EUR/USD and Short USD/CHF

1:13	Valeria Bednarik:  at this time, just a bet... not a trade. Honestly no ofense please ok?

1:14	[Comment From Guest] what would the effect be on the euro if trichet were to address quantitative easing

1:14	Valeria Bednarik:   He still has more rate cuts on the sleave so, i don't expect him to tall about quantitative easing. anyway, taht will harm euro more than rates for me

1:14	[Comment From Samer] Valeria Bednarik: but GBP moved bellow 1.4 before , is that sign GBP will go down again ?

1:16

Valeria Bednarik:  no. See i'm posting intraday levels, not longer term ones.. If you consider longer term, till now the pair fail to break under that level, yet is no time for me, of calling a bullish recoup in the pair. We need to see the apir at least above 1.4330 for that.. and at least! that level

1:17	[Comment From ferry] sorry, what is the mentioned level for EUR/USD after Trichet speech

1:17	Valeria Bednarik:  To the upside, watch 1.2600/20 first and then 1.2660. To the downside, 1.2490 and this week minimum at 1.2460 or so

1:17	[Comment From Michael] I have noticed that oil prices are up and gold down last few days. Can this be influential on dollar strength. Do you believe that correlation between dollar strength and equity markets will continue ? Thanks in advance .. :)

1:19	Valeria Bednarik:  Dollar strength is due more for stocks falls and counterpart weakness that actual strength. Gold could be correcting but seems quite bullsih inthe short and the longer term. Correlation will continue yes, no end at sight

1:19	[Comment From Cassie] I've heard rumours of a EUR/USD no touch option at 1.25-1.30 could this be affecting the levels?

1:20	Valeria Bednarik:  I heard them too.. and of course. Rumours about China defending options at the key 1.2500 level. Taht could be the reason the pair is holding just above there despite Euro weakness

1:20	[Comment From ranpaopao] can eur/usd will down?

1:20	[Comment From Joe] Can I ask a question?

1:21	Valeria Bednarik:  ranpaopao, Euro is exactly at the same level than previous to the release.. Gbp quite close also. Let's see market rection after Trichet

1:21	Valeria Bednarik:  Joe yes, you can ask

1:21	[Comment From Vivek] the eurgbp is so volatile..there is no predicting that pair!

1:21

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1:21	Valeria Bednarik:  is a slow pair Vivek... good to longer term trades

1:22	[Comment From Guest] What is the breaking poing for GBP to go long 14100?

1:22	Valeria Bednarik:  no for me... above 1.4160 at least

1:22	[Comment From Samer] Valeria Bednarik: i think next hr "candel stick" in chart will be good sign for gbp and eur

1:22	Valeria Bednarik:  Yes Samer will probably.. but there are so many questions I can hardly see charts!

1:22	[Comment From Doko] OMG Valeria why you are so bearish about EUR ! You keep saying that do not trade long time frames but keep insisting that EUR will FALL !

1:23	Valeria Bednarik:  HI DOKO! I was almost missing you around here. I don't trrade longer term. But i trade following trend always! And you should be happy today, I say there are signs of probable change...

1:23	[Comment From Jimmy] but, how should we read the current eor/usd?

1:24	Valeria Bednarik:  Meaning what Jim? I don't understnd your question

1:24	[Comment From Berat] if the rates cuts strengthened the USD, why not EUR and other currencies,follow such scenario?

1:25	Valeria Bednarik:  Berat, there is no strnength for dollar... just fears and weakness all around.

1:26	Valeria Bednarik:  As comment before, is a matter or secure investment... currencies are not responding to their own countruies situation, but to stocks markets this won't last but is what we have now

1:26	[Comment From Samer] why i can't see what i'm writing here !

1:27	Valeria Bednarik:   Samer there are hundreds of you, and only one me..

1:27	Valeria Bednarik:  I'm answering as fast as i can, and trying to post you all

1:27	FXstreet.com:  Trichet will have a press conferest soon

1:27

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1:27	[Comment From Davis] euro is going bullish. why is that happen?

1:27	Valeria Bednarik:  No bullish still Davos

1:27	[Comment From Bill] Thank you for your excellent running commentary, Valeria. Your views have been very rewarding

1:28	Valeria Bednarik:  thanks you Bill

1:28	[Comment From ferry] what level a good buy for eur/usd after trichet speech

1:28	Valeria Bednarik:  I believe close to 1.2400 if reached... all will depend on the price.

1:28	[Comment From Joe] What is your senario for USD/JBP?

1:29	Valeria Bednarik:  Jpy i guess you mean.. read above.... really tough resistance zoen at 100.50 or so. No big coming backs in the pair. Bullish trend to contiue, with short corrections in the midle

1:29	[Comment From Joe] Why no body is answering my questions?

1:29	Valeria Bednarik:   Sorry Joe, already did

1:29	[Comment From Samer] Valeria Bednarik it look like USD/CAD in top , what u think !?

1:30	Valeria Bednarik:  I Think the same.. Oild shoud apreciate slowly, as comment before closer to 60 or 70, and we have that 1.3000 really important resistnace level above

1:30	[Comment From Aaron] How come all this printing of money what with the multi billion stimulus deals are not seen as weak for the dollar because it certainly will devalue the currency won't it?

1:31	FXstreet.com:  Now U.S. jobless claim came out -31K to 639K

1:33

Valeria Bednarik:  Aaron you are completely right.. and also that will bring back inflation into play..and then rate rises... we can spent a life time talking about economic cycles, and mistakes. History is showing us we don't learn. As Said before, dollar is not strong.. is fear sending investors to safety..

1:33	[Comment From tamer] so do you think there will be a big move in Eur/usd price today or tomorrow

1:33	Valeria Bednarik:  Both days I believe will be plenty of volatility

1:33	[Comment From Berat] I do not think that Trichet will send a message that might weaken EUR, there is lot of rumours already in the market for the Eurozone, already, what do you think?

1:34	FXstreet.com:  the speech has begun now

1:34	Valeria Bednarik:  I think people will be watching for further rates moves. If Trichet says something like this is it! no more cuts, will probably see euro apreciating quickly. people will start pricing in next rate decision today

1:34	[Comment From Guest] EQUITIES RISING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT ONLY WEAKENS USD BECAUSE OF REDUCTION OF RISK AVERSION MEANS USD IS NO LONGER NEEDED AS SAFE HAVEN

1:35	Valeria Bednarik:  yes, that's what we have been saying

1:35	[Comment From Berat] Valeria, if you look at monthly chart. there is a

1:35	[Comment From Berat] a sudden stop in the Eur/USD bear, do you think this is worrisome

1:36	Valeria Bednarik:   not worrisome, but well could be understood as another probable bottom sign

1:36	[Comment From Denis] Does anyone have a link where Triche's speech can be watched live?

1:36	[Comment From Alexander] do you think that australian economy is really the one in the best shape compared to others, like Stevens said two days ago?

1:36	FXstreet.com:   Trichet considers that inflation will remains below 2.00%

1:37	Valeria Bednarik:   I don't really.. they hold rates, yes, but 24 hours later their GDP slumps really hard! No healthy economy right now, anywhere but China probably

1:37	[Comment From jay] you mentioned expecting usdjpy at the 100.50 levels, in how long would you see that to happen? thx

1:37	Valeria Bednarik:  soon... this, next week

1:37	[Comment From Chris] doesn't it all depend on your time horizon, for example, buy GBPUSD here, 12 point stop, 30 point profit target, if we were to do that over the time horizon of a yr, I think that would be feasible.....what do you think?

1:38	FXstreet.com:  Please check out the ECB offcial site where you can watch the speech at www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html

1:38	Valeria Bednarik:  See your point Chris... a trade is a trade short or long term that's what you mean right?

1:39	Valeria Bednarik:  yet i don't have the patient to do so.

1:39	Valeria Bednarik:  to be in the market too long I mean.

1:39	[Comment From Guest] wouldnt you go short the EUR/USD if the Dow futures point to lower open? Dow-98 points or -1.4%

1:40	Valeria Bednarik:  for short term trades no doubts.

1:40	Valeria Bednarik:  I have just seen charts. Trichet is speaking euro falling

1:40	FXstreet.com:  Trichet says GDP would recover in 2009, 2010

1:40	Valeria Bednarik:  fbp following

1:40	Valeria Bednarik:  Gbp sorry.

1:41	Valeria Bednarik:  Here we go.. take a look at Swissy

1:42	Valeria Bednarik:  Still te speach always mean jumps either way.. up and down after each trichet sentence..

1:42	FXstreet.com:  We have just 10 minutes left. Please ask Valeria anything related to the market! Those who can not get answer, please follow up her blog at http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/2009/03/05/eurusd-technical-points-5/

1:42	[Comment From Carston] Hi Valeria, what about USDJPY, do you not think it is a bit over extended at these levels?

1:42	Valeria Bednarik:   read previous questions please, we already discuss this

1:42	[Comment From arun kandal] can i expect much downside pressure 15-20 before the nfp data release or can u pls provide me link to contact sameer and vivek

1:43	Valeria Bednarik:  I don't have anyway to contact all you guys, but If you wish too, use my blog that's the more i can offer you to exchange mails.. or send them to me and i made the cross reference

1:43	[Comment From Fernan] Valeria about your comment about rumors according to option positions from china among others countries, is there any web site where we could find and analize public information like this

1:44	FXstreet.com:

1:44	Valeria Bednarik:  I read some newsparers of those countries in english.. search the net you will surely find more info

1:44	FXstreet.com:  Trichet comments Monetary Expansion Still Decelerates.

1:44	[Comment From Guest] i think usd/jpy is bearish now

1:44	[Comment From euggio] i think usd/jpy is bearish

1:45	Valeria Bednarik:  Yes but I don't expect this movements to be more than corrections before resuming upside trend again

1:45	[Comment From Mint] While there're so many weaknesses in Euro economy, and high demand on usd. Is there any reliabilities to buy eur at any level for long term?

1:45	FXstreet.com:  we have 5 minutes left.

1:47	Valeria Bednarik:   Yes, of course there always are. you can use low leverage there, and wait for a significant minimum like the mentioned 1.2330. Also, a break to the upside, but is really far from here, I guess above the 1.28 we could go to the 1.3000 zone and not much more

1:47	[Comment From Joe] What will be the low USD/JBP in case of a short correction? I have am holding some JBP and wanna go out

1:47	Valeria Bednarik:  98,40 zone should hold. Under that probablty closer to the mids 97.00

1:48	[Comment From verylongtrader] hi val, i have buy position e/u from last week, now -150 pips, what should i do? give me advise

1:49	Valeria Bednarik:  If the pair remains above 1,2500 and you are not risking your account, hold it. break under 1.2460 will get you in trouble. Close and assume the loss or put an hedge

1:49	[Comment From Aaron] Valeria, don't you think the combined effect of the rate cuts and a bear day for the Dow Jones (since it rallied yesterday) points to a bearish day for the EUR USD and GBP USD pairs?

1:50	Valeria Bednarik:  Yes Aaron I expect so, but I will also wait for support breaks

1:50

FXstreet.com:  We are geeting many comments yet. It's time to sum up Today's live coverage. Both The BoE and the ECB have decided to cut the ongoing interest rates to 0.50% and 1.50% respectively. We would like to thank to Valeria for her participation today. It has been a great pleasure to have you today with us!

1:50	[Comment From Denis Palii] HI verylongtrader, you should exit as soon as possible as the short and long term trends are bearish,check 4h chart ...

1:51	Valeria Bednarik:  I'm sorry really, but I must leave you all now. I'll be back around the blog, to post the conclusions of all this, in about half an hour, after Trichet finish his speech

1:52	FXstreet.com:  Thank you Valareria ! it has been great ! Valeria, Please give us a final Word,please.

1:54	[Comment From Guest] Thank you Valrie

1:54

Valeria Bednarik:  Always an honour to be here with all of you. I guess my finals worlds will be nothing last for ever, nor stocks falls, nor economic downturns. We just need to be wise enough to detect changes or continuations soon enough, and always protect our trades. Have a plan my friends! See you soon

1:54	Valeria Bednarik:  Hope you enjoy as much as I

1:55	FXstreet.com:  Thank you! Valeria! have a nice day!

1:55	Valeria Bednarik:  Thank you all!

1:55	FXstreet.com:  I would like to specially thank CMS Forex, today’s sponsor, for their support. Open a live account with CMS with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now. Use the following links to follow up about today’s main market news.

1:55	FXstreet.com:  CMS General Research page

1:55	FXstreet.com:  Daily video about the main market news

1:55	FXstreet.com:  Expert Analysis of Today's Market

1:55	FXstreet.com:  Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead

1:57	FXstreet.com:  Well , thank you everyone joininng the today's live coverage! I hope you have had a great time with us.

1:59	FXstreet.com:  Tomorrow we have NFP live coverage at at 13:15 GMT. I hope i will see you again here!!!! Have a great trading day! Do not forget to place stoplosses! Bye for now!

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