| FED Interest Rates Decision Live Coverage with Nick Nasad | (04/29/2009) |
1:11 | FXstreet.com: Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's Fed Interest Rates Decison will start in 5 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Nick Nasad who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. He will be giving us a direct picture for the market status. |
1:12 | FXstreet.com: Nick Nasad is a currency market analyst with CMS Forex for the last 3 years. He closely monitors fundamental releases and reports their results and provides commentary to the company's clients through CMS Forex's interactive economic calendar Forex Capsule and through daily Forex market video recaps. He has also written extensive educational material on using technical analysis in trading Forex. |
| 1:20 | [Standby] Event will be resumed at 18,00 GMT. |
7:01 | FXstreet.com: In few minutes Nick will join us to give his vision of the market status |
7:01 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Hello everyone, and thanks once again for having me. |
7:02 | FXstreet.com: Hello Nick, it's a great pleasure to have you here again today! |
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7:02 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Thank you for that introduction. We come into today's FOMC announcement following weakness in the greenback in today's trading as risk appetite was boosted by rising stocks in Europe and the US. The increase was undettered by the weaker-than-expected GDP data, as US stocks rose in the aftermath. |
7:03 | FXstreet.com: Well, Nick, what could you tell us about the market situation during last hours? |
7:03 | Nick Nasad - CMS: therefore we had another leg of greenback declines in some currency pairs, withthe Euro, Aussie and Loonie pushign to new highs for the session |
7:04 | FXstreet.com: Please, start sending your questions, Nick will try to answer as much as possible |
7:04 | Nick Nasad - CMS: for today's announcement, there is no realistic chance that the Fed will raise rates, and most observers will be looking to see if the Fed announced any new quantitative easing plans |
7:05 | Nick Nasad - CMS: it will also be the first meeting in a while where the Fed is presented with an economy that is showing some life, so they will most likely say that conditions are not as bad as they were a few months ago. |
7:06 | FXstreet.com: I would also like to hear what do you think about today's FED decision. Please, vote the poll! |
| 7:06 | Will the FOMC keep the benchmark rates? Yes, the FOMC will hold the ongoing rates ( 89% ) ( 4% ) ( 4% ) ( 4% ) |
7:07 | Nick Nasad - CMS: ok, now that we have done our poll, let me take some questions |
7:07 | [Comment From trader] what do u forcast for the EUR USD do u think it will continue to rise or drop from here |
7:08 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The Euro has seen a string of better data last week and overnight. That included better than expected manufacturing and services PMI, better ZEW economic sentiment figures and IFO business climate conditions. Overnight we saw the European Commission's economic sentiment improve as well. |
7:09 | Nick Nasad - CMS: that has given the Euro strength backed by fundamentals, still, traders are still getting some mixed signals from ECB officials in regards to their plans, which could pressure the Euro as the ECB meeting comes up next week. |
7:10 | Nick Nasad - CMS: currently, we have see a strong rally in the Euro the past two session starting from yesterdays low, and there is a chance we rise higher. however, it seems we may be in a bit of overbought territory for the pair. |
7:10 | [Comment From Naeem] I have sell gpb/yen at 141.50 what do u think about it shall i exit in it |
7:12 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the GBP/JPY has been in a downtrend for mos tof the month, though we have seen recent support holding strong. In a medium term outlook, teh UK economy is still facing a myriad of problems, including a shaky financial system, rising unemployment and a weak housing sector. That should pressure the Pound, however, in a short term look, we are at a pretty cricial level, if you connect even the highs from last week, we can see that we are right up against that level. |
7:13 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The FOMC is not going to rock the boat with today;s announcement. They will take a much different approach than their last meeting when they dropped the bombshell that they were going to start buying Tresuries. |
7:13 | Nick Nasad - CMS: However, as of last week, the Fed had only purchased $67 billion of Treasury purchases out of the announced $300 billion package; $60 billion of agency debt purchases out of the announced $200 billion; and $381 billion of mortgage-backed securities out of the announced $1.25 trillion. |
7:13 | Nick Nasad - CMS: so I dont see policy makers committing more funds in today's meeting, of course I may be proved wrong in about 2-3 minutes |
7:14 | [Comment From Guest] HI Nick Do you think there is more room for Euro to move up? above 13340 what would be the next resistance? |
7:14 | FXstreet.com: Just a couple of minutes for the release of the event! |
7:15 | Nick Nasad - CMS: i think if the FOMC does announce further QE, we could see the Euro climb higher, however my bet is that today's rise may be close to done with. Then again, the FOMC tends to create a lot of volatility (i think something the Fed is trying to avoid today) |
7:15 | [Comment From Peter] Whats George Soros position?..:) |
7:16 | Nick Nasad - CMS: that's funny. |
7:16 | [Comment From ejthekkan] what could be gbp/usdhigh for today? |
7:16 | Nick Nasad - CMS: from my technical analysis, which has the pair in a slightly upward sloping channel, i have resistance near 1.4870 |
7:18 | [Comment From Dusan] Hi Nick, I think FED will not miss any change for weakening dollar, even though officially strong dollar is US interest. What is your opinion? |
7:19 | FXstreet.com: Fed's Rates on hold! |
7:19 | Nick Nasad - CMS: ok, usd/jpy just jumped, and eur/usd is falling in favor of the greenback |
7:19 | FXstreet.com: US Fed leaves Interest Rate at 0.25% |
7:20 | Nick Nasad - CMS: "the economic outlook has improved modestly since the March meeting" |
7:21 | Nick Nasad - CMS: we had a pull back to some of the Loonie and Euro gain, but nothing dramatic. |
7:22 | FXstreet.com: Read the oficial data on the FED's website |
7:22 | Nick Nasad - CMS: right now markets are showing greenback strength, paring its earlier losses |
7:22 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the usd/jpy shot above its downward sloping line of ressitance, breaking out of a downward channel. |
7:23 | [Comment From martin] Nick should we hold long position on eur/usd or sell? is euro climbing? |
7:23 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the knee-jerk reaction to eur/usd is not showing followthrough, though its still very early |
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7:27 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The Fed is being patient with their policies, and the big move was already made last meeting, and now was not the time to expand those programs. Officials pointed to reasons top be more hopeful about the outlook of the economy, so they will take a steady-as-you-go approach. |
7:28 | Nick Nasad - CMS: that has caused a pull back to some of the gain in the risk-sensitive majors, but a lack of follow through so far.. |
7:28 | [Comment From Peter] I wish the traders would figure out where they want to go...:) |
7:28 | [Comment From zaphy] everything as expected! |
7:28 | [Comment From Guest] eur/usd stopped right at Daily R1 on my 5 min chart |
7:29 | [Comment From zaphy] In other words (steady-as-you-go) the FED is following the ECB's approach |
7:30 | Nick Nasad - CMS: I think the FED has been much more aggressive in combating its recession, so what i mean by steady-as-you-go is that they are waiting to see how their policies develop. in order words, they need more time to assess how effective they are. the ECB on the other hand, has not introduced QE yet, and interest rates still have some room to be cut. |
7:31 | [Comment From J-F] What happened to USD/JPY?! |
7:32 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the greenback shot up as the Fed outlook lifted equities and risk sentiment for US equities |
7:33 | Nick Nasad - CMS: if you connect the highs from April 12th through april 23rd, we see that prior to the FOMC we were right at that level. once it was breached we had a 70 pip spike. |
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7:33 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The Yen is feeling the pinch further following a day of declines already. |
7:34 | [Comment From Peter] Is the USD/EUR decling channel considered intact? |
7:34 | Nick Nasad - CMS: if we are talking about the channel tha started in late March, the high today and the pullback from that high corresponds rather well to that downtrend's resistance level. |
7:36 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The pullback amounted to about 38.2% of today;s rise, so i wouldn't buy into the idea that the Euro is done climbing against the Dollar. we may be seeing a retracement. I think the recent string of positive news from the Euro-zone gives the recent Euro rallies some strength, and so it really depends on what pserspective you have about the way things are going forward. The ECB meeting next week should help to clarify alot of questions around the ECB |
7:37 | [Comment From Guest] Do you think we gonna see some strength in dollar now |
7:38 | Nick Nasad - CMS: i dont know that the Fed annoucnemnet changes things, and may in fact reinforce the risk appetite we have been seeing in today's session. as long as stocks are faring better the greenback should be pressured, and with the US GDP data coming in the way it did, I dont think we will see traders betting that the US economy will be coming out of its recession any sooner than anticiapted. |
7:39 | Nick Nasad - CMS: in the short term though, after the losses it has sustained, there should be some retracement and correction. it may be as short as what we are seeing currently in the eur/usd (about 38.2% of today's rally) |
7:40 | [Comment From aigee] gbpusd,isnt feeling much why |
7:41 | Nick Nasad - CMS: im assuming you are saying the pair isn't falling much and to that I would say that the Fed laid out a pretty bland and rather predictable statement, meant to show that they are slightly more confident about the economy, but that they are taking a wait-and-see approach till the next meeting. |
7:42 | [Comment From Peter] Looks like USD/EUR making slight recovery...retesting 1.60 for 3rd time perhaps?...:) |
7:44 | Nick Nasad - CMS: if you are looking at a daily picture, the 1.25 level was very strong support, and the pair does seem to be trying to rally. We are seeing a bit of a triangle shaping up and a break to the upside has many resistance levels before we get to 1.60.. You would have to see a quicker global recovery for such a scenerio to play out., and next monday we are going to get the "Stress test" results which could influence risk sentiment negatively. |
7:44 | [Comment From Peter] Long term decline for USD/EUR to 1.20's and beyond?...Or are the currencies just going to bob up and down around 1.30's |
7:45 | Nick Nasad - CMS: i dont see us heading down to 1.20, 1.25 is a very stiff support right now. There is of course the chance of a more sideways consolidation, with key levels being 1.36 and 1.28 (support from last week) |
7:45 | [Comment From karan] Any views on why crude has still been strong since inventory data & gdp being weak? |
7:46 | Nick Nasad - CMS: I dont follow the oil market that closely, but I would attribute today's increase to the senseo fo risk appetite we have been seeing all session, which as you said seemed to brush off the US GDP news. |
7:47 | Nick Nasad - CMS: one thing about the GDP data is that a big part of the fall was a rundown in business inventories (and housing investment). A rundown of inventories means that firms will free up their stockpiles and will be ready to place orders again, helping to spur industrial production and hopefully have a more positive impact in the 3rd quarter. Personal consumption was up 2.2% as well, which probably surprised people on the upside. |
7:48 | Nick Nasad - CMS: so on the face of it the GDP data looks bleak, but looking closer at the data reveals some bright spots. |
7:48 | [Comment From hardstone1] what about pond/yen |
7:50 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the Pound-Yen broke above its its short term downward sloping resistance level (connecting highs from April 21st and 23rd), but seems unable to break above horizontal resistance at 144.40, its high from last Thursday. Just as in the USD/JPY risk sentiment will be key, though the break of short term resistance is an indication this pair may be bullish the rest of the week (if it can get above 144.40). |
7:50 | [Comment From cindy] Hi Nick, What's your view on Cad$,please? |
7:51 | Nick Nasad - CMS: this is another one of those pairs at a critical level. The 1.1980 level was support from April 15th, and the Loonie stalled today's advance there. |
7:52 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the Loonie correlates very strongly with risk appetite, espeically with commodity prices. Today's rise in oil and stock markets around the world boosted its fortunes, and if we see a continuation of today's mood the rest of the week it will be intersting to see if it is able to break April 14's low. |
7:53 | [Comment From Peter] There were comments from China that it is buying gold secretly and getting rid of USD reserves...has lost confidence in US to pay back its debt>>>could start panick... |
7:54 | Nick Nasad - CMS: I havn't heard that Peter, but I think the US and China are in a bit of symbiotic relationship. if China does something to undermine the value of the Dollar it will be shooting itself in the foot the debt it holds from the US will be worth less. Hopefully the panic we saw last October and in February, is the end of the panic for now... |
7:55 | Nick Nasad - CMS: (unless you see the coverage of the swine flu outbreak here in the US, talk about trying to panic people, but thats a different story) |
7:55 | [Comment From sunvast] what u think will happen to aud/usd |
7:56 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The Aussie, similar to the Loonie, is at a critical juncture. Today's high is clsoe to waht we saw in mid-April, which was the highest this pair has been since October |
7:57 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the Aussie will move along with the pace of global recovery. Therefore, rising stocks and oil prices will boost its fortunes. Also, keep an eye on how China is doing as they buy alot of Australia's exports, especially natural resources. |
7:58 | [Comment From cindy] Hey Nick...thanks for cad$.I am just waiting also.don't break today would short it |
7:59 | [Comment From Guest] it looks like Euro is determind to go up? do you think 13400 is a target for tonight? |
8:00 | Nick Nasad - CMS: guest, it seems that the rectracement to the euro rally from today is over, and we are moving back towards today's high. |
8:00 | Nick Nasad - CMS: i just dont know if we will see much more of a move today.. I think the liquidity is leaving the market at this point. |
8:02 | Nick Nasad - CMS: but i don't see the greenback strengthening much today beyond what we have seen. |
8:02 | [Comment From Peter] It's definately an interesting time for trading...very choppy (and will likely remain for some time to come)...unlike a year or so ago when you could make a few thousand effortlessly in a day and not have to spend the whole day in front of a computer... |
8:03 | [Comment From Peter] Nick...can you explain the comment about liquidity...how does it work?... |
8:04 | Nick Nasad - CMS: what i mean there, is the market is more volatile and moves more when there are many traders placing orders at the same time. Right now, following the FOMC release adn since its close to the close for US equiteis (1 hour away), there are less trades being places, hence less liquidity |
8:05 | Nick Nasad - CMS: ok, i think my time here is wrapping up |
8:05 | [Comment From Bermuda] Hi, Nick! what about nzd/usd..what u think will happen today? |
8:05 | FXstreet.com: Yes Nick, we are short of time. Any final word? |
8:05 | Nick Nasad - CMS: bermuda, follow the RBNZ interest rate decision coming up |
8:06 | Nick Nasad - CMS: expectations are for a 50 basis point cut, so that pair may see some strong moves still, if the result is different than expectations. |
8:06 | Nick Nasad - CMS: ok, so today's FOMC annoucnement was pretty close to expected. They presented an outlook that is either less grim, or more optimistic depending on your point of view, and said that they will contineu their programs that seem to be showing some results. |
8:07 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the rise in US equities added to the sense of risk appetite in the markets that we saw from overnight (and was undettered by weker than expected US GDP data), which pressured the greenback. |
8:08 | Nick Nasad - CMS: expect some pullback to today's moves, perhaps overnight, though if global stocks rally again tomorrow, we should see further dollar weakness. |
8:08 | [Comment From Peter] Thanks Nick...very nice feature of the site to have something live like this.... |
8:08 | Nick Nasad - CMS: thank you everyone for you comments and participation |
8:08 | FXstreet.com: Many thanks Nick to you for your participation today! |
8:08 | FXstreet.com: I would like to specially thank CMS Forex, today’s sponsor, for their support. Open a live account with CMS with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now. Use the following links to follow up about today’s main market news. |
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8:10 | Nick Nasad - CMS: thanks again to everyone and see you all next time |
8:10 | FXstreet.com: The Daily Forex Video is presented by Nick, so I encourege you all to watch it on a daily basis. |
8:11 | Nick Nasad - CMS: http://www.cmsfx.com/rss/daily-videos.xml |
8:11 | Nick Nasad - CMS: here is the rss feed for our daily videos |
8:12 | FXstreet.com: thanks Nick, I am already suscribed! |
8:13 | FXstreet.com: Time to conclude this Live Coverage, I hope to see you all next Friday, May 8 for the NFP Live Covverage! |



... Let me sum up the ECB decision. ECB has decised to cut the benchmark inerest rate by 25 bps to 1.25%. Trichet's speeh has driven the EUR/USD further.. EUR/USD has reached once at 1.3495.
... 





GDP Live Coverage
Hi every one let me know your opinion on the GDP..
Yes, the FOMC will hold the ongoing rates
Good result and bullish for the USD
will market waiting for fed or it move well after gdp?
Hi Nick ... it is a greater chance that eur/usd .... will not react to the GDp. right ?
Hi Nick, What GDP result can push EUR/USD pair higher? What level pair can reach before FOMC?
How do you see EUR/USD in one week. I guess dollar is going to start bullish today. Till next week euro rate announcement
Interesting you'd say that we can reach 1.33. Last three months, no matter what the outcome of the GDP was the $ strengthened (initially). Or do you mean longer term (24hrs+)?
is it time to sell usd/jpy?
why is the USD rising if the GDP is lower than expected?
i have short gpb/yen at 141.46 what do u think about pond
Reaction seems real slow despite worse than expected number
How about Advance GDP Price Index q/q effect than Advance GDP q/q. I see Advance GDP Price Index q/q is higher than forecast?
I guess there won't be a rate hike from the FOMC today! Do you see any chance of them announcing further QE measures?
hi do you think eur and yen are safe heaven at this moment
i have buy of gbp/usd at 146.60, is it good time to cover or should hold?
How about AUDUSD
so you suggest sell eur for next few hrs
Is it possible that once market opens in about 40 minutes that the reaction would be stronger and not so subdued?
What should be signal to sell EUR/USD?
What trend expect if the rate US remain 0.25?
What level to long AUDUSD
Thank you eveone for joining the coverage today! Thank you!... and Nick! We really appreciate your comments on the market,,, tahnk you very much,!
thanks nick
thnx
We really appreciate u r comments thanks nick
Posted by FXstreet Team in Live Coverage, Market Viewpoint & Live Commentary | Permalink | Comments (0)