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GDP Live Coverage

US GDP Live Coverage with Nick Nasad

(04/29/2009)

  

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1:13

FXstreet.com:  Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's U.S. GDP Live Coverage will start in 5 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Nick Nasad who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. He will be giving us a direct picture for the market status.

1:13

FXstreet.com:  Nick Nasad is a currency market analyst with CMS Forex for the last 3 years. He closely monitors fundamental releases and reports their results and provides commentary to the company's clients through CMS Forex's interactive economic calendar Forex Capsule and through daily Forex market video recaps. He has also written extensive educational material on using technical analysis in trading Forex.

1:14

FXstreet.com:  I am pelased to announce you that today’s sponsor is CMS Forex. CMS Forex has some of the most competitive Forex trading terms on the market today! Unlike many Forex brokers, CMS Forex allows you to trade both mini (10,000) and standard (100,000) lots under a single account. Open a live account with CMS Forex with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now. CMS Forex also produces expert analysis, market research and daily market news coverage with videos and reports. Browse the following URLs to learn and take profit from their expertise.

1:14	FXstreet.com:  CMS General Research page

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1:15	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Hello everyone, and thank you fxstreet for having me on again!

1:16	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Coming into today's GDP release we have seen a bout of risk appetite in the currency markets with the greenback and Yen falling against thier rivals.

1:17	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Euro moved higher for a second straight session, as better than expected econmis sentiment data mixed with better stock performance helped the EUro strengthen.

1:17	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we're up more than 100 pips in the EUR/USD pair, so we should see if the market is ready for any follow through from the GDP data.

1:18	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The expectations for today's GDP release is an annualzied decline of 4.7%, which is smaller than what we saw in the 4th quarter (-6.3%).

1:18	FXstreet.com:   Hi every one let me know your opinion on the GDP..

1:18	Will the FOMC keep the benchmark rates? Yes, the FOMC will hold the ongoing rates  ( 100% ) No, they will hike it 25bps to 0.50%  ( 0% ) No, they will hike it by 50bps to 0.75%.  ( 0% ) No, they wiill hike it by 75bps to 1.00%  ( 0% )

1:19

What do you anticipate the outcome of U.S. GDP? Good result and bullish for the USD  ( 40% ) Good result but bearish for the USD  ( 20% ) Expected result and low volatility  ( 13% ) Bad result and bearish for the USD  ( 13% ) Bad result but bullish for the USD  ( 13% ) No impact on the USD no matter what outcome  ( 0% )

1:20	Nick Nasad - CMS:  a GDP reading that is better than a -4.7% drop, say somewhere in the -4% or better range would be dollar positive, at least initially. while a reading that is in line with expectations should pressure the greenback.

1:21	Nick Nasad - CMS:  currently the Pound is reversing some of its gains while the Loonie is breaking new ground, trying to reach the 1.20 level.

1:21	[Comment From Aram] will market waiting for fed or it move well after gdp?

1:22	Nick Nasad - CMS:  ill start taking some questions now. I think the GDP data has a chance to move markets, especially if we get a surprise result.

1:22	[Comment From Phantom1] Hi Nick ... it is a greater chance that eur/usd .... will not react to the GDp. right ?

1:22

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1:23	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the EUR/USD has already rallied from low to high about 150 pips.., yesterday we saw a 190 pip move, so projecting out there is a chance that we go higher to 1.33 (if GDP is worse than expected).

1:23	[Comment From Dusan] Hi Nick, What GDP result can push EUR/USD pair higher? What level pair can reach before FOMC?

1:24

Nick Nasad - CMS:  i think anything weaker than -4.7%, the consensus, has a chance to pressure the Dollar. Participants believe that the 1st quarter was better than the 4th, but tehre were still many weak spots in the economy. If its believed that the US pace of decline is faster than anticipated than the greenback could see some further sell off.

1:25	[Comment From longhand] How do you see EUR/USD in one week. I guess dollar is going to start bullish today. Till next week euro rate announcement

1:25	FXstreet.com:  5 minutes to go

1:25

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1:26	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Euro has been helped by a string of better than expected data like manufactuing and services PMI's, and ZEW economic sentiment and IFO business index, and the data confidence data from overnight.

1:26	FXstreet.com:  CMS General Research page

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1:27	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I think that the Euro was being sold off in most of April as a reuslt of weaker data and weaker expectations for growth, where now the opposite effect is taking hold.

1:27	[Comment From zaphy] Interesting you'd say that we can reach 1.33. Last three months, no matter what the outcome of the GDP was the $ strengthened (initially). Or do you mean longer term (24hrs+)?

1:28	Nick Nasad - CMS:  zaphy, thats an interesting point, and part of the reason could have been that traders were playing on risk sentiment and not necessarily how the data reflected no the US economy

1:29	Nick Nasad - CMS:  i think today, the link between risk sentiment, though still strong, is slightly weaker than it was several months ago, and we can see a more "normal" response.

1:30	FXstreet.com:  U.S GDP -6.1

1:30	Nick Nasad - CMS:  im seeing a turn down in the USD/JPY prior ot the release, though its most likely noise., the pound is showing a similar dip in favor of the dollar.

1:30	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we have a worse than epxected outcome

1:31	Nick Nasad - CMS:  that should pressure the greenback, unless risk sentiment fears overpower the reponse

1:31	Nick Nasad - CMS:  and we have a flight to safety in the dollar.

1:31	FXstreet.com:  US GDP -6.1% vs Forecast -4.6%

1:32	Nick Nasad - CMS:  that reading is lower than i thought it would be, the pound is giving up its gains,

1:33

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1:33

Nick Nasad - CMS:  as is the Canadian dollar. it seems that the risk appetite that we saw overnight, may now initially give way to risk aversion.there hasn't been a huge reposnse to the data,.. but the indication is that this will not help boost the euro since the overnight gains came on risk appetite.,

1:34	FXstreet.com:  US GDP -6.1% vs Forecast -4.6%

1:34	[Comment From Aram] is it time to sell usd/jpy?

1:36

Nick Nasad - CMS:  Aram, i think part of what we are seeing is asubdeud response seince we still have a key event coming up in the FOMC meeting., therefore the moves have been limited,. I dont see how this could be taken in stride by equity markets in the US, so i would say the dollar-yen has a chance to fall the rest of the session.

1:36	[Comment From jimmy] why is the USD rising if the GDP is lower than expected?

1:37	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we are seeing risk sentiment playing a stronger role than the effect this report has on expectations for growth in the US economy.

1:38

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1:38

Nick Nasad - CMS:  since we gained overnight on higher stocks and a sense of risk appetite, (purchasing higher-yielding pairs at the expense of dollar and yen) traders are now looking in the opposite direction. However, the moves are subdued for such a negative figure, and it seems that traders are looking forward and waiting for the Fed later today

1:39	[Comment From hardstone1] i have short gpb/yen at 141.46 what do u think about pond

1:41

Nick Nasad - CMS:  the pound-yen has seen some interesting price action movement recently in that it broke above a downward sloping line of resistance near 141 (connect highs from April 16th, 24th, 25th). we saw a bounce off support near 139.40, and right now we seem to be running up against a very short term level of support. (connecting lows from today and yesterday)

1:41	Nick Nasad - CMS:  so, the pair is at a critical level for the short term.

1:42	[Comment From Guest] Reaction seems real slow despite worse than expected number

1:43

Nick Nasad - CMS:  hardstone, i dont know what your thoughts were going into the trade, but the Yen has seen 1000 pip move down since mid-April, and did seem ready for a retracement. therefore, you may be looking at a buillish basis for the short term, with a more downward basis overall.. its just that break of support recently give me pause about a sell..

1:43	Nick Nasad - CMS:  guest, i totally agree, i would not expect such a weak reaction.

1:44	Nick Nasad - CMS:  one thing we may be seeing is that investment and a reduction in inventories were a major part of today's weaker than expected number

1:44	Nick Nasad - CMS:  however a rundown in inventories sets the stage for more orders in the 3rd quarter and perhaps better growth ahead.

1:45

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1:46	[Comment From Art] How about Advance GDP Price Index q/q effect than Advance GDP q/q. I see Advance GDP Price Index q/q is higher than forecast?

1:47	Nick Nasad - CMS:  that could be a factor.. if inflation is climbing faster than expected than the Fed's programs are being successful in fighting back deflation.

1:47	[Comment From zaphy] I guess there won't be a rate hike from the FOMC today! Do you see any chance of them announcing further QE measures?

1:48	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the euro/usd is turning downward,

1:48	Nick Nasad - CMS:  seems that the risk appetite we have seen is gone, and we may start a retracement of today's move.

1:50

Nick Nasad - CMS:  I think the Fed will not go so far as to introduce new quantitative measures, but will give an assessment of how the program is working so far. in the last meeting the Fed allocated more money, and I do not believe they have used it up yet. plus, prior to today's GDP the Fed could point to better data to argue that the economy is seeing some "greenshoots" and that further QE may not be needed at this time

1:52	[Comment From rajan] hi do you think eur and yen are safe heaven at this moment

1:52	[Comment From sohail] i have buy of gbp/usd at 146.60, is it good time to cover or should hold?

1:52

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1:53

Nick Nasad - CMS:  sohail, the 1.47 level right now is acting as a major fault line for bulls and bears., a break of it would surely send the pair lower than 1.4660, its hard to gauge currently, but my expectation is that US equities will not be able to shrug off the GDP news and we will see more risk aversion than risk appetite in the NY session.

1:54	FXstreet.com:  We have just 10 minutes left. Please ask anything related to the market.

1:54	Nick Nasad - CMS:  but so far, we are not seeing a major reaction

1:54	[Comment From Rudy] How about AUDUSD

1:55

Nick Nasad - CMS:  though the Aussie has recovered nicely from its fall to start the week, it looks slightly overbought now and running up against some resistance. we may see a period of consolidation as we've seen higher lows, but also lower highs, and price action could get squeezed the rest of today and this week.

1:56	[Comment From rajan] so you suggest sell eur for next few hrs

1:56	Nick Nasad - CMS:  i think the potential is setting up for a eur/usd sell, but i wouldnt jump on it yet., the lack of conviiction to the GDP news right now makes me wary.

1:56	[Comment From lin] Is it possible that once market opens in about 40 minutes that the reaction would be stronger and not so subdued?

1:57	Nick Nasad - CMS:  i think thats a very good point, and right now the currency markets may take their cue from the equity markets, until the Fed concludes its meeting.

1:57	Nick Nasad - CMS:  especially since overnight we saw a sharp move upward on good performance from European stocks

1:58	[Comment From Dusan] What should be signal to sell EUR/USD?

2:00

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2:00

Nick Nasad - CMS:  different traders have their own signals, but what we are seeing is that we have come close to resistance from Friday near 1.33, and after a 300 pip rally, the conditions that gave rise to the rally are shifting. however, last week's rally was about 400 pips, so there still room for it to move upward. i actually wouldnt sell the pair right now, its too tough to gauge what will happen next. we dont seem overextended, so unless the pair moves up to 1.33 and shows a reversal, i would actually wait.

2:01	[Comment From Bermuda] What trend expect if the rate US remain 0.25?

2:02

Nick Nasad - CMS:  the US rate will be kept the same, what you should look for is language in regards to QE,. if the Fed will announce more money for QE, the dollar may be pressured, but if they say the current programs are adequate then teh greenback shouldn't be pressured, though i dont know that it will rise from that news either.

2:03	[Comment From Rudy] What level to long AUDUSD

2:03	Nick Nasad - CMS:  if we have a move downward in a period of consolidation, the area around 0.75 may be a good long.

2:04	Nick Nasad - CMS:  if the pair heads upward, its hard to get from the current price action as we have stiff resistance at the 0.73 level.

2:04	Nick Nasad - CMS:  sorry i meant 0.7050 earlier for a long

2:06	FXstreet.com:  Sorry ,,, it is time to warp up the live coverage.

2:06	FXstreet.com:  US GDP was wrose than expected-6.1% (vs Forecast -4.6% )

2:07

Nick Nasad - CMS:  so in an interesting development, the currency markets have shrugged off the GDP data, and though it stalled the advance of the Euro and Loonie against the greenback, we havent seen a big move towards risk aversion, or greenback weakness. Market participants are therefore waiting for how US equities will respond to the GDP news, and of course the FED announcement which doesnt come for another 5 hours or so...

2:08	FXstreet.com:   Thank you eveone for joining the coverage today! Thank you!... and Nick! We really appreciate your comments on the market,,, tahnk you very much,!

2:09	Nick Nasad - CMS:  so, thats all the time i have for this live coverage, but I will be back later in the day during the FOMC announcement, so we'll see if we have any important developments.

2:09	FXstreet.com:  Thank you Nick! See you later then !

2:11	[Comment From lin] thanks nick

2:12	FXstreet.com:  Okay everyone,,, as Nick told us. we have teh FOMC live coverage later on at 18:15 GMT

2:12	FXstreet.com:  So please stay with us and see you later in the live coverage.

2:13	FXstreet.com:  Bye for now! Have a nice time! See you all!!!!

2:13	FXstreet.com:  I would like to specially thank CMS Forex, today’s sponsor, for their support. Open a live account with CMS with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now. Use the following links to follow up about today’s main market news.

2:13	FXstreet.com:  CMS General Research page

2:13	FXstreet.com:  Daily video about the main market news

2:13	FXstreet.com:  Expert Analysis of Today's Market

2:13	FXstreet.com:  Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead

2:14	[Comment From Bermuda] thnx

2:14	[Comment From arasan] We really appreciate u r comments thanks nick

2:16

Live Coverage: Fed Interest Rate Decision

FED Interest Rates Decision Live Coverage with Nick Nasad

(04/29/2009)

  

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1:11

FXstreet.com:  Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's Fed Interest Rates Decison will start in 5 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Nick Nasad who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. He will be giving us a direct picture for the market status.

1:12

FXstreet.com:  Nick Nasad is a currency market analyst with CMS Forex for the last 3 years. He closely monitors fundamental releases and reports their results and provides commentary to the company's clients through CMS Forex's interactive economic calendar Forex Capsule and through daily Forex market video recaps. He has also written extensive educational material on using technical analysis in trading Forex.

1:20	[Standby]  Event will be resumed at 18,00 GMT.

7:01	FXstreet.com:  In few minutes Nick will join us to give his vision of the market status

7:01	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Hello everyone, and thanks once again for having me.

7:02	FXstreet.com:  Hello Nick, it's a great pleasure to have you here again today!

7:02

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7:02

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7:02	FXstreet.com:  CMS General Research page

7:02	FXstreet.com:  Daily video about the main market news

7:02	FXstreet.com:  Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead

7:02	FXstreet.com:  Expert Analysis of Today's Market

7:02

Nick Nasad - CMS:  Thank you for that introduction. We come into today's FOMC announcement following weakness in the greenback in today's trading as risk appetite was boosted by rising stocks in Europe and the US. The increase was undettered by the weaker-than-expected GDP data, as US stocks rose in the aftermath.

7:03	FXstreet.com:  Well, Nick, what could you tell us about the market situation during last hours?

7:03	Nick Nasad - CMS:  therefore we had another leg of greenback declines in some currency pairs, withthe Euro, Aussie and Loonie pushign to new highs for the session

7:04	FXstreet.com:  Please, start sending your questions, Nick will try to answer as much as possible

7:04	Nick Nasad - CMS:  for today's announcement, there is no realistic chance that the Fed will raise rates, and most observers will be looking to see if the Fed announced any new quantitative easing plans

7:05	Nick Nasad - CMS:  it will also be the first meeting in a while where the Fed is presented with an economy that is showing some life, so they will most likely say that conditions are not as bad as they were a few months ago.

7:06	FXstreet.com:  I would also like to hear what do you think about today's FED decision. Please, vote the poll!

7:06	Will the FOMC keep the benchmark rates? Yes, the FOMC will hold the ongoing rates  ( 89% ) No, they will hike it 25bps to 0.50%  ( 4% ) No, they will hike it by 50bps to 0.75%.  ( 4% ) No, they wiill hike it by 75bps to 1.00%  ( 4% )

7:07	Nick Nasad - CMS:  ok, now that we have done our poll, let me take some questions

7:07	[Comment From trader] what do u forcast for the EUR USD do u think it will continue to rise or drop from here

7:08

Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Euro has seen a string of better data last week and overnight. That included better than expected manufacturing and services PMI, better ZEW economic sentiment figures and IFO business climate conditions. Overnight we saw the European Commission's economic sentiment improve as well.

7:09	Nick Nasad - CMS:  that has given the Euro strength backed by fundamentals, still, traders are still getting some mixed signals from ECB officials in regards to their plans, which could pressure the Euro as the ECB meeting comes up next week.

7:10	Nick Nasad - CMS:  currently, we have see a strong rally in the Euro the past two session starting from yesterdays low, and there is a chance we rise higher. however, it seems we may be in a bit of overbought territory for the pair.

7:10	[Comment From Naeem] I have sell gpb/yen at 141.50 what do u think about it shall i exit in it

7:12

Nick Nasad - CMS:  the GBP/JPY has been in a downtrend for mos tof the month, though we have seen recent support holding strong. In a medium term outlook, teh UK economy is still facing a myriad of problems, including a shaky financial system, rising unemployment and a weak housing sector. That should pressure the Pound, however, in a short term look, we are at a pretty cricial level, if you connect even the highs from last week, we can see that we are right up against that level.

7:13	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The FOMC is not going to rock the boat with today;s announcement. They will take a much different approach than their last meeting when they dropped the bombshell that they were going to start buying Tresuries.

7:13

Nick Nasad - CMS:  However, as of last week, the Fed had only purchased $67 billion of Treasury purchases out of the announced $300 billion package; $60 billion of agency debt purchases out of the announced $200 billion; and $381 billion of mortgage-backed securities out of the announced $1.25 trillion.

7:13	Nick Nasad - CMS:  so I dont see policy makers committing more funds in today's meeting, of course I may be proved wrong in about 2-3 minutes

7:14	[Comment From Guest] HI Nick Do you think there is more room for Euro to move up? above 13340 what would be the next resistance?

7:14	FXstreet.com:  Just a couple of minutes for the release of the event!

7:15	Nick Nasad - CMS:  i think if the FOMC does announce further QE, we could see the Euro climb higher, however my bet is that today's rise may be close to done with. Then again, the FOMC tends to create a lot of volatility (i think something the Fed is trying to avoid today)

7:15	[Comment From Peter] Whats George Soros position?..:)

7:16	Nick Nasad - CMS:  that's funny.

7:16	[Comment From ejthekkan] what could be gbp/usdhigh for today?

7:16	Nick Nasad - CMS:  from my technical analysis, which has the pair in a slightly upward sloping channel, i have resistance near 1.4870

7:18	[Comment From Dusan] Hi Nick, I think FED will not miss any change for weakening dollar, even though officially strong dollar is US interest. What is your opinion?

7:19	FXstreet.com:  Fed's Rates on hold!

7:19	Nick Nasad - CMS:  ok, usd/jpy just jumped, and eur/usd is falling in favor of the greenback

7:19	FXstreet.com:  US Fed leaves Interest Rate at 0.25%

7:20	Nick Nasad - CMS:  "the economic outlook has improved modestly since the March meeting"

7:21	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we had a pull back to some of the Loonie and Euro gain, but nothing dramatic.

7:22	FXstreet.com:  Read the oficial data on the FED's website

7:22	Nick Nasad - CMS:  right now markets are showing greenback strength, paring its earlier losses

7:22	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the usd/jpy shot above its downward sloping line of ressitance, breaking out of a downward channel.

7:23	[Comment From martin] Nick should we hold long position on eur/usd or sell? is euro climbing?

7:23	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the knee-jerk reaction to eur/usd is not showing followthrough, though its still very early

7:25

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7:26	FXstreet.com:  CMS Forex, today’s Sponsor also produces expert analysis, market research and daily market news coverage with videos and reports. Browse the following URLs to learn and take profit from their expertise.

7:26	FXstreet.com:  Daily video about the main market news

7:26	FXstreet.com:  Expert Analysis of Today's Market

7:27	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Fed is being patient with their policies, and the big move was already made last meeting, and now was not the time to expand those programs. Officials pointed to reasons top be more hopeful about the outlook of the economy, so they will take a steady-as-you-go approach.

7:28	Nick Nasad - CMS:  that has caused a pull back to some of the gain in the risk-sensitive majors, but a lack of follow through so far..

7:28	[Comment From Peter] I wish the traders would figure out where they want to go...:)

7:28	[Comment From zaphy] everything as expected!

7:28	[Comment From Guest] eur/usd stopped right at Daily R1 on my 5 min chart

7:29	[Comment From zaphy] In other words (steady-as-you-go) the FED is following the ECB's approach

7:30

Nick Nasad - CMS:  I think the FED has been much more aggressive in combating its recession, so what i mean by steady-as-you-go is that they are waiting to see how their policies develop. in order words, they need more time to assess how effective they are. the ECB on the other hand, has not introduced QE yet, and interest rates still have some room to be cut.

7:31	[Comment From J-F] What happened to USD/JPY?!

7:32	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the greenback shot up as the Fed outlook lifted equities and risk sentiment for US equities

7:33	Nick Nasad - CMS:  if you connect the highs from April 12th through april 23rd, we see that prior to the FOMC we were right at that level. once it was breached we had a 70 pip spike.

7:33

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7:33	FXstreet.com:  CMS Forex, today’s Sponsor also produces expert analysis, market research and daily market news coverage with videos and reports. Browse the following URLs to learn and take profit from their expertise.

7:33	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Yen is feeling the pinch further following a day of declines already.

7:34	[Comment From Peter] Is the USD/EUR decling channel considered intact?

7:34	Nick Nasad - CMS:  if we are talking about the channel tha started in late March, the high today and the pullback from that high corresponds rather well to that downtrend's resistance level.

7:36

Nick Nasad - CMS:  The pullback amounted to about 38.2% of today;s rise, so i wouldn't buy into the idea that the Euro is done climbing against the Dollar. we may be seeing a retracement. I think the recent string of positive news from the Euro-zone gives the recent Euro rallies some strength, and so it really depends on what pserspective you have about the way things are going forward. The ECB meeting next week should help to clarify alot of questions around the ECB

7:37	[Comment From Guest] Do you think we gonna see some strength in dollar now

7:38

Nick Nasad - CMS:  i dont know that the Fed annoucnemnet changes things, and may in fact reinforce the risk appetite we have been seeing in today's session. as long as stocks are faring better the greenback should be pressured, and with the US GDP data coming in the way it did, I dont think we will see traders betting that the US economy will be coming out of its recession any sooner than anticiapted.

7:39	Nick Nasad - CMS:  in the short term though, after the losses it has sustained, there should be some retracement and correction. it may be as short as what we are seeing currently in the eur/usd (about 38.2% of today's rally)

7:40	[Comment From aigee] gbpusd,isnt feeling much why

7:41

Nick Nasad - CMS:  im assuming you are saying the pair isn't falling much and to that I would say that the Fed laid out a pretty bland and rather predictable statement, meant to show that they are slightly more confident about the economy, but that they are taking a wait-and-see approach till the next meeting.

7:42	[Comment From Peter] Looks like USD/EUR making slight recovery...retesting 1.60 for 3rd time perhaps?...:)

7:44

Nick Nasad - CMS:  if you are looking at a daily picture, the 1.25 level was very strong support, and the pair does seem to be trying to rally. We are seeing a bit of a triangle shaping up and a break to the upside has many resistance levels before we get to 1.60.. You would have to see a quicker global recovery for such a scenerio to play out., and next monday we are going to get the "Stress test" results which could influence risk sentiment negatively.

7:44	[Comment From Peter] Long term decline for USD/EUR to 1.20's and beyond?...Or are the currencies just going to bob up and down around 1.30's

7:45	Nick Nasad - CMS:  i dont see us heading down to 1.20, 1.25 is a very stiff support right now. There is of course the chance of a more sideways consolidation, with key levels being 1.36 and 1.28 (support from last week)

7:45	[Comment From karan] Any views on why crude has still been strong since inventory data & gdp being weak?

7:46	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I dont follow the oil market that closely, but I would attribute today's increase to the senseo fo risk appetite we have been seeing all session, which as you said seemed to brush off the US GDP news.

7:47

Nick Nasad - CMS:  one thing about the GDP data is that a big part of the fall was a rundown in business inventories (and housing investment). A rundown of inventories means that firms will free up their stockpiles and will be ready to place orders again, helping to spur industrial production and hopefully have a more positive impact in the 3rd quarter. Personal consumption was up 2.2% as well, which probably surprised people on the upside.

7:48	Nick Nasad - CMS:  so on the face of it the GDP data looks bleak, but looking closer at the data reveals some bright spots.

7:48	[Comment From hardstone1] what about pond/yen

7:50

Nick Nasad - CMS:  the Pound-Yen broke above its its short term downward sloping resistance level (connecting highs from April 21st and 23rd), but seems unable to break above horizontal resistance at 144.40, its high from last Thursday. Just as in the USD/JPY risk sentiment will be key, though the break of short term resistance is an indication this pair may be bullish the rest of the week (if it can get above 144.40).

7:50	[Comment From cindy] Hi Nick, What's your view on Cad$,please?

7:51	Nick Nasad - CMS:  this is another one of those pairs at a critical level. The 1.1980 level was support from April 15th, and the Loonie stalled today's advance there.

7:52

Nick Nasad - CMS:  the Loonie correlates very strongly with risk appetite, espeically with commodity prices. Today's rise in oil and stock markets around the world boosted its fortunes, and if we see a continuation of today's mood the rest of the week it will be intersting to see if it is able to break April 14's low.

7:53	[Comment From Peter] There were comments from China that it is buying gold secretly and getting rid of USD reserves...has lost confidence in US to pay back its debt>>>could start panick...

7:54

Nick Nasad - CMS:  I havn't heard that Peter, but I think the US and China are in a bit of symbiotic relationship. if China does something to undermine the value of the Dollar it will be shooting itself in the foot the debt it holds from the US will be worth less. Hopefully the panic we saw last October and in February, is the end of the panic for now...

7:55	Nick Nasad - CMS:  (unless you see the coverage of the swine flu outbreak here in the US, talk about trying to panic people, but thats a different story)

7:55	[Comment From sunvast] what u think will happen to aud/usd

7:56	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Aussie, similar to the Loonie, is at a critical juncture. Today's high is clsoe to waht we saw in mid-April, which was the highest this pair has been since October

7:57	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the Aussie will move along with the pace of global recovery. Therefore, rising stocks and oil prices will boost its fortunes. Also, keep an eye on how China is doing as they buy alot of Australia's exports, especially natural resources.

7:58	[Comment From cindy] Hey Nick...thanks for cad$.I am just waiting also.don't break today would short it

7:59	[Comment From Guest] it looks like Euro is determind to go up? do you think 13400 is a target for tonight?

8:00	Nick Nasad - CMS:  guest, it seems that the rectracement to the euro rally from today is over, and we are moving back towards today's high.

8:00	Nick Nasad - CMS:  i just dont know if we will see much more of a move today.. I think the liquidity is leaving the market at this point.

8:02	Nick Nasad - CMS:  but i don't see the greenback strengthening much today beyond what we have seen.

8:02	[Comment From Peter] It's definately an interesting time for trading...very choppy (and will likely remain for some time to come)...unlike a year or so ago when you could make a few thousand effortlessly in a day and not have to spend the whole day in front of a computer...

8:03	[Comment From Peter] Nick...can you explain the comment about liquidity...how does it work?...

8:04

Nick Nasad - CMS:  what i mean there, is the market is more volatile and moves more when there are many traders placing orders at the same time. Right now, following the FOMC release adn since its close to the close for US equiteis (1 hour away), there are less trades being places, hence less liquidity

8:05	Nick Nasad - CMS:  ok, i think my time here is wrapping up

8:05	[Comment From Bermuda] Hi, Nick! what about nzd/usd..what u think will happen today?

8:05	FXstreet.com:  Yes Nick, we are short of time. Any final word?

8:05	Nick Nasad - CMS:  bermuda, follow the RBNZ interest rate decision coming up

8:06	Nick Nasad - CMS:  expectations are for a 50 basis point cut, so that pair may see some strong moves still, if the result is different than expectations.

8:06	Nick Nasad - CMS:  ok, so today's FOMC annoucnement was pretty close to expected. They presented an outlook that is either less grim, or more optimistic depending on your point of view, and said that they will contineu their programs that seem to be showing some results.

8:07	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the rise in US equities added to the sense of risk appetite in the markets that we saw from overnight (and was undettered by weker than expected US GDP data), which pressured the greenback.

8:08	Nick Nasad - CMS:  expect some pullback to today's moves, perhaps overnight, though if global stocks rally again tomorrow, we should see further dollar weakness.

8:08	[Comment From Peter] Thanks Nick...very nice feature of the site to have something live like this....

8:08	Nick Nasad - CMS:  thank you everyone for you comments and participation

8:08	FXstreet.com:  Many thanks Nick to you for your participation today!

8:08	FXstreet.com:  I would like to specially thank CMS Forex, today’s sponsor, for their support. Open a live account with CMS with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now. Use the following links to follow up about today’s main market news.

8:09

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CMS - Integrated Pattern Recognition Tecnology View

8:09	FXstreet.com:  CMS General Research page

8:09	FXstreet.com:  Daily video about the main market news

8:09	FXstreet.com:  Expert Analysis of Today's Market

8:09	FXstreet.com:  Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead

8:10	Nick Nasad - CMS:  thanks again to everyone and see you all next time

8:10	FXstreet.com:  The Daily Forex Video is presented by Nick, so I encourege you all to watch it on a daily basis.

8:11	Nick Nasad - CMS:  http://www.cmsfx.com/rss/daily-videos.xml

8:11	Nick Nasad - CMS:  here is the rss feed for our daily videos

8:12	FXstreet.com:  thanks Nick, I am already suscribed!

8:13	FXstreet.com:  Time to conclude this Live Coverage, I hope to see you all next Friday, May 8 for the NFP Live Covverage!

8:14

Trading with the ATR & Bollinger Bands

Expert: Adam Rosen, CEO and Co-Founder at 4xLounge
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
A full discussion of trading markets according to their current state of volatility.

Identifying the weekly fundamental trend of EUR/USD

Expert: Javier Paz, Principal at ForexDatasource.com
Moderator: Maud Gilson

Summary:

Learn to look at charts and read what economic events had the most impact, learn to look at the events of the week ahead in the context of the fundamental trend, learn to estimate the high of the week and the low of the week, and learn some trading strategies based on the weekly high and weekly low. The principles learned apply to any currency pair.

My favorite technical indicators to trade Forex

Expert: Valeria Bednarik, Independent Contributor at FXstreet.com Independent Analyst Team
Moderator: Maud Gilson

Summary:

Join Valeria Bednarik for FXstreet..com's April Monthly Webinar. She will explore what she considers to be the most effective indicators for her style of trading:

• Momentum Indicator
• CCI
• Bollinger Bands
• Moving Averages
• Stochastic Oscillators
• RSI

Don't miss Valeria's complete review of these indicators and how she uses them as a part of her trading strategy.

Live Press Conference: Introducing Active Trader

Live Press Conference: Introducing Active Trader

(04/16/2009)

  

Close

3:01

FXstreet.com:  “Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.”

3:02	FXstreet.com:  Good Morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone. Welcome to todays FXstreet.com and FXCM Press Conference to present the brand new FXCM Active Trader Platform.

3:04

FXstreet.com:  Brandon Mulvihill is the global sales manager for FXCM's Active Trader Group. This group focuses strictly on the needs of the active trader community, namely high frequency self traders, money managers, small hedge funds, and financial intermediaries. The Active Trader platform is the primary vehicle used by this group. Before taking control of the Active Trader Group, Mr. Mulvihill managed FXCM's San Francisco retail sales desk. He has also managed strategic white label relationship, and FXCM's course sales.

3:04	FXstreet.com:  Hello, Brandon it's a pleasure to have you here today!

3:04	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  Hello, I'm excited to be here. And thank you for having us.

3:04	FXstreet.com:  FXCM has reinvented its No Dealing Desk execution model in launching FXCM’s Active Trader platform. As a one-of-a-kind forex trading platform, Active Trader displays an ECN type view of total liquidity available through the platform, providing two major advantages:

3:05

FXstreet.com:   Transparency in Execution: Before trading, you should know the exact price at which a market order can be filled based on available liquidity. Short-Term Market Direction Indicator: If the amount of liquidity is heavily tilted towards either the bid or ask side, then this will indicate that short-term prices may be moving towards the side with less liquidity.

3:05	FXstreet.com:  Key Features: 5 Level Display of Market Depth View of the Liquidity Available at Each Price Level Low Spreads― EUR/JPY typically less than 1 pip.† Web-Based Trading. No Downloading One-Click Trading Preset Stops and Limits

3:05	FXstreet.com:  Let's watch a video to better understand this!

3:05

[Video file]

ActiveTrader Play

3:07	FXstreet.com:  While you see the video, just let you know that you can ask as many questions as you want to Brandon. He will be delighted to answer them.

3:08

FXstreet.com:  “Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.”

3:08	[Comment From fxgal] Is there a minimum for an account balance and is this available for micro and min?

3:09	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  The minimum account balance is $25,000 or clients who trade over 10 million notional volume per month may also come onto the active trader platform.

3:09	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  I see a couple of questions trickling in, before I get to them, I want to give a little background about the platform.

3:10	FXstreet.com:  Ok, Brandon I see our users are eager to know more about Active Trader, what could you tell us about it?

3:10

Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:   The FXCM Active Trader Platform was created with the professional forex trader in mind, those who not only wanted advanced functionality but also wanted more information that would give them a trading edge: tight spreads, execution certainty on large orders, market depth, and the ability to trade from anywhere as it is a web based platform.

3:10

Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:   The spreads on active trader platform are the some of the tightest in the industry. On FXCM Active Trader you will see the typical spreads on a pair like EUR/USD at 0.7 pips, and at times as tight as 0.3 pips. Tight spreads in addition to having a tiered commission structure, Active Trader is designed to help reduce trading costs.

3:11

Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:   Our execution model on Active Trader is a no dealing desk (agency) model, which means that trades are done back-to- back with the liquidity providers that compete to make prices. Specifically, this means that you can trade without dealer intervention, order restrictions, or restrictions on specific trading strategies. Specifically, this means you can trade within the spread, scalp, and perform one-click trades with pre-set stops and limits at any level ideal for scalping or short term trading strategies.

3:11	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  With that said let us jump into the first batch of questions I see coming.

3:11	[Comment From tony] hi, is the platform also available to australian residents and what is the min account ballance ?

3:12	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  Actually this question is very relevant. We are going to begin onboarding Australian clients very soon. The minimum is the equivalent of $25000 USD

3:12	[Comment From Guest] what is the minimum unit??? 10K?

3:12	FXstreet.com:  I would like to remind to all our viewers that you can send any question to Brandon. He will try to answer as many as possible

3:13	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  The minimum unit is 10K. There is no maximum unit as traders can type into the amount field any notional increment in sizes of 10K.

3:13	[Comment From Japanese trader] Does "spread widening" happens during big events and weekend????

3:14	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  Excellent question. The spreads on the platform are variable as they reflect the changing rates that our liquidity providers provide us. With that said we are working diligently to onboard more banks and more liquidity providers to the platform.

3:15	[Comment From fxtrdr09] Hi Brandon, what order types are available on the Active Trader platform?

3:15	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  There are various order types, among them being FXCM's At Best and Market Range orders.

3:15	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  At Best orders help traders to grab fill certainty while market range orders help traders to grab price certainty.

3:16	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  In addition to those orders we also have fill or kill orders (FOK),

3:16	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  Immediate or Cancel (IOC), and Good Until Canceled (GTC).

3:16

3:16	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  If you look above you can see that At Best and Market Range orders are placed through the order type window,

3:17	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  The Time In Force is where you can define FOK, IOC, or GTC orders.

3:17	[Comment From Guest] You mentioned that the platform provides an edge. How does the market depth specifically provide a scalper, like myself, a trading advantage ?

3:18	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  When scalping the market, it is vital to know the liquidity available in the market, for instance if you want to do a 3M order on EURUSD, what is key for you is that you can get into the position with minimal slippage.

3:18	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  If only 1M is available at the top tier and the next tier is several points away you may change your order type to help work your order more efficiently. Without this information you would have put your order in and been slipped several points off the market.

3:19	[Comment From Guest] does this platform offer APIs?

3:19	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  Yes we do offer API. At present we offer the FIX protocol.

3:19	[Comment From al] can I trade directly to the different liquidity levels?

3:20

Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  You can trade to the different liquidity levels, you can actually place trades inside the spread. Very soon we will have a "sweep" function that will allow you to take all the liquidity out of the market as you will be able to see the Volume Weight Average Price (VWAP). We expect this to be available in the next month or so.

3:20	[Comment From Joe] Can you go into more detail on the commission structure for high volume traders? Can i significantly lower my cost of trading?

3:21	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  The commission structure begins at $5 per side.

3:22	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  For traders doing 10M notional volume per month.

3:22

3:23	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  If you look at the image above you can begin to see the possible commission structure, however part of being a client of the active trader group is that we are willing to customize your commission structure depending on the volume you do monthly.

3:23	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  For a better idea on this you can email us at activetrader@fxcm.com

3:23	[Comment From Guest] Is there a demo available and does it provide an accurate testing environment ? Spreads and depth are accurately reflected ?

3:24

Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  There is a demo available. We have worked hard to provide an environment that simulates the real environment as much as possible. However simulating liquidity in the market is never going to be as real as trading in a live environment. We advise clients to start with a smaller portion of their portfolio to test out the platform, the execution, and the pricing.

3:25	[Comment From Joshi Santika] How or what would it be if someone could not reach 10 Milion? How much sread GBP/USD it same all day or variable? Thank. I am in Asian Country

3:26

Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  For traders who do not consistently do 10M notional volume per month, and who do not have an account balance higher than 25,000 USD, we will remove them from the platform. Keep in mind that the liquidity pool provided to the Active Trader platform is a separate pool than that liquidity pool provided to other FXCM products.

3:27	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  Regarding GBP/USD, recently the spreads have been higher than what we would like as they have been trading between 2 and 3 during the US hours. We have several relationships in the pipeline that we feel will address this issue in the near future.

3:27

3:27	[Comment From al] what happens with my order if it exceeds the available liquidity I see on the platform

3:27	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  There are a couple things to note here.

3:28	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  The depth of market displayed showcases individual liquidity providers and the amount of liquidity at a given price point. However when that liquidity is taken away there may also be a refresh, meaning that it is likely that more liquidity could be added.

3:29	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  Secondly, on EUR/USD we are currently showing over 30M available on both the bid and the ask. Trading in excess of that available liquidity means that slippage will definitely occur,

3:30	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  it is important to note that liquidity is a scarce resource if you decide to place a 5M order with Bank A vs. 40M with Bank A at a given time, the 5M order will be exponentially cheaper.

3:31

Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  There has been lots of presentations done at seminars and expos regarding the vast liquidity available in the forex market. This is absolutely true relative to other markets, however the notion of doing a 40M EUR/USD ticket on a 2 pip spread is simply not feasible. The Active Trader platform is designed to show you exactly what liquidity is available and how much you will pay to get that liquidity.

3:32	[Comment From yen4fx] i am new to fx. if i were to deposit $25,000 what type of education/support can you offer me?

3:32	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  It is important to note that Active Trader clients are considered Gold Account members and receive the following perks:

3:32	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  1) Day Trading Course valued at $999

3:33	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  2) Pro Real Time Charts valued at $70 per month,

3:34	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  3) Access to the Active Trader sales and client support team, which is a dedicated team for market information as well as providing support to expedite all operational inquiries & forms.

3:35	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  4) Finally, because the clients on this product typically fund well in excess of $10,000 per deposit or withdrawal, we offer 2 waived wire expenses per month.

3:35	[Comment From LadyF] Is the platform customizable? Like changing the color, etc?

3:36

Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  The platform is customizable. If you go to the Options Tab at the top left you will have the ability to change the color or times of rate updates. The windows can be rearranged by simply clicking and dragging around, in addition if you like any of our sales representatives are happy to spend 20 minutes tailoring your platform to your needs.

3:37	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  The phone number for those interested is 646-432-2970,

3:38	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  Alternatively our toll free is 888-503-6739. You will want to dial the extension 702970 to be directed straight through to our Active Trader group.

3:38	[Comment From Guest] no requotes? and instantly execution ?

3:39	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  To answer this questionwe have to discuss how our execution model works.

3:39	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  When placing a buy order FXCM is not selling. The order is done back to back with the liquidity provider who competed to offer that price.

3:41	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  Because we hold no exposure on the trade we don't have to requote trades or place restrictions on orders in fear that we may not be able to offset the orders.

3:41	FXstreet.com:  Please, keep on sending your questions we still have time to answer a few! Thanks!

3:42	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  In fact our one click trading gives you the ability to get into and out of the market quickly. Let me show you an example.

3:42

3:43

Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  If you look above you can see the "create limit" and "create stop" features. You can even create a 3 pip limit so that when you do a single click on a given currency pair a limit order to take profit is automatically attached to your ticket 3 pips in your favor from the price that you got into the trade.

3:43	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  There is no need to click and confirm, and then have to go in and place an additional order to take profit or cover a loss.

3:44	[Comment From allan] is hedging allowed

3:44	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  This is a timely question.

3:45	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  Hedging is allowed on the product. Recently I have been informed by my superiors that US regulators will no longer allow hedging for regulated entities in the United States.

3:45	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  This means that those traders who would like to hedge may be required to simply open their account through FXCM LTD, otherwise known as FXCM UK.

3:45	[Comment From carrytrader] can i bid and offer inside the spread?

3:46	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  You can absolutely place orders inside the spread.

3:46	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  Note, you are not posting liquidity to the platform. Our liquidity providers are the only price makers to the platform at this time.

3:46	[Comment From LadyFX] Is the platform usable on my lovey IPhone?

3:47	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  Mobile device trading is not available at this time.

3:47	[Comment From Big] Any additional services if i open an account with FXCM? Like signals, technical reports, news, and so on?

3:48	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  Of course all Active Trader clients have access to the traditional FXCM products and services which include but are certainly not limited to: multiple charting programs, trading signals, our speculative sentiment index (SSI), and real time news releases.

3:49	[Comment From Guest] any API available for Active Trader?

3:49	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  We do offer the FIX API, this must be requested and can be by sending an email to activetrader@fxcm.com

3:50	[Comment From allan] how are you different from other ecns

3:50	FXstreet.com:  I am sorry we are short of time, last couple of questions, Brandon

3:51

Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  The Active Trader platform and the execution model associated with it has been built on years of experience. To date the FXCM group does over 500b notional trading volume per month. To answer your question we believe that the credit lines and relationships that we have built with banks have put us in a position where we can offer traders doing larger sizes to be able to get larger chunks at extremely competitive prices.

3:51	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  I'll take one more question, and then we'll wrap it up.

3:52	[Comment From MetalTrader] Are economic news and chart applications integrated into the application?

3:52	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  At this time charts are not integrated into the platform. We are working to integrate our proprietary market scope charts into the platform within the next 3-4 months.

3:53	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  Before I go, I want to thank all of you for attending, and I would like to thank FXStreet for having us. We look forward to working with you and again feel free to contact us at the number and email provided in the script.

3:55	FXstreet.com:  Thanks Brandon! Before finishing this event, we want you to answer some questions! Please, be kind to vote the 4 polls we are going to launch.

3:55	How long have you traded FX? 0-1 year  ( 14% ) 1-5 years  ( 57% ) I am a demo trader  ( 14% ) I am new to FX. Just getting started  ( 14% )

3:57	FXstreet.com:  I will let you take a couple of minutes to answer this question. In the meantime, just a reminder about the great advantages of Active Trader

3:57

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3:57

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FXCM’s Active Trader Platform View

3:58	FXstreet.com:  Second Poll!

3:58	What is most important to you as a trader? Pricing  ( 17% ) Service  ( 17% ) Transparency  ( 33% ) Execution  ( 33% )

3:59	FXstreet.com:  5 minutes more to answer this question, an important one I guess

4:02	FXstreet.com:  Thanks for voting!

4:02	FXstreet.com:  Third one, please, pick up one option again.

4:03	What is the best trading strategy for current market conditions? Range  ( 25% ) Event-driven  ( 25% ) Momentum  ( 25% ) Trend  ( 25% )

4:03	FXstreet.com:  In the meantime, let's see a couple of messages more about Active Trader

4:04

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Active Trader (img) View

4:04

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Test Drive FXCM Active Trader View

4:05	FXstreet.com:  two minutes more to answer the last question and we will move to the last one. Thanks for your patience and for bearing with us while we launch this questionnaire.

4:07	FXstreet.com:  Last question! Please, pick up one of the four options below.

4:07	Which markets are best suited for potentially high yield returns? Forex  ( 71% ) Futures  ( 14% ) Stocks  ( 14% )

4:12	FXstreet.com:  And that was all for today. I would like to thank you very much for your time and participation in this Special Live Press Conference today.

4:13	FXstreet.com:  Brandon, it has been a great pleasure to have you today with us offering such a great presentation about Active Trader. Any final word?

4:13	Brandon Mulvihill, FXCM:  Simply to contact us with any additional questions that we weren't able to answer today. Thanks again for having us.

4:14	FXstreet.com:  Thanks once more. I hope to see you in the next Live event!

4:14

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Active Trader (img) View

4:16

How To Identify And Trade A Wide Range

Expert: Steve Misic, Instructor at Online Trading Academy
Moderator: Maud Gilson

Summary:
Many times, price will become range bound after a big directional move. Sometimes the breakout from this range will be a continuation of the trend, or a reversal. While waiting for the breakout, this consolidation can be traded profitable if the range is wide. The focus of this session is to identify which time frame to use to find the range, which time frame to use for entry, and how to set the rules for entries, exits, and stops.

Technical Trading Strategist in the short and longer term

Expert: Valeria Bednarik, Independent Contributor at FXstreet.com Independent Analyst Team
Moderator: Maud Gilson

Summary:

• Proved strategies for different time frames
• Correct use of signals, triggers, stops and limits

Pitchforks with Fibonacci Retracements

Expert: Mark Whistler, Senior Market Strategist at TradingMarkets.com
Moderator: Maud Gilson

Summary:
Pitchforks, an often overlooked, but powerful trend analysis tool give traders incredible insight when attempting to perceive trends. However, when merged with Fibonacci, the common trend tool becomes an even more robust indicator within Forex markets. Mark will show traders how using a macro to micro approach, traders can drill down within timeframes using Fibonacci Pitchforks, identifying position, swing and intraday trades.

ECB Live Coverage

ECB and Trichet Speech Live Coverage with Valeria Bednarik and David Aranzábal

(04/02/2009)

  

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12:20

FXstreet.com:  Hello everyone all over the world. Today's ECB Interest Rates Decision Live Coverage will start in 5 minutes. I am pleased to have Valeria Bednarik and David Aranzabal taking part in this live event today as co-presenters. They will be giving us a direct picture of the market action while we follow the news and comments sent by our main sources and published by our Editors on FXstreet.com.

12:21

FXstreet.com:  Valeria Bednarik has been an active Forex trader for the last 4 years, specializing in the International Foreign Exchange Market. She also graduates in the Universidad Catolica del Salvador, in Argentina, as a Public Account, specializing in financials and cost managements. She currently manages an important clients portfolio for IFX Markets, Boston and is senior trader manager at Molfx-Management; besides she works training new traders with Trader College LLC specializing in technical analysis, for the English speaking community.

12:22

FXstreet.com:   Valeria is the author of The Advisor blog and David has started his blog "Trade for a living"at FXstreet.com.

12:22

FXstreet.com:  The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

12:22

FXstreet.com:  Trade for a living by David Aranzabal

12:22

FXstreet.com:  David Aranzabal graduated in 1992 from Deusto University, Spain with a degree in Software Engineering. In 2001 graduated in IESE Business School with master's degree in Business Management (MBA). In 2004 he moved to full time currency trader and he has been an FXstreet Premium Member since its inception. Actually he is running FX FOR A LIVING.com, a company for helping traders archive consistency in his trading.

12:24

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi everybody and welcome to this live coverage! as always an honor to be here with you all today, and greater sharing with David Aranzabal! hope you all enjoy this live coverage, and results useful

12:24

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12:25

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12:25

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12:25

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12:25

FXstreet.com:  Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead

12:26

David Aranzabal:  Hello everybody, we´ll try to do our best covering this amazing event today.

12:26

Will the ECB low the bench mark interest rate? Yes, the ECB will cut it by 25bps  ( 17% ) Yes, the ECB will cut it by 50bps  ( 46% ) Yes, on an aggressive cut it by moe than 75bps.  ( 31% ) No, the ECB will rather hold the ongoing rate.  ( 6% ) No, the ECB will rather hike it by 25bps  ( 0% ) No, the ECB will rather hike it by 50bps  ( 0% )

12:27

David Aranzabal:   As you know ECB is expected to lower rates by 50bp bringing the overnight rate to 1% a new historical low. Although the rate decision carries little suspense, the markets will watch Jean Claude Trichet post announcement press conference as he may announce unconventional measures to stimulate economy. Today’s interest rate decision is probably more important than any other rate decision made by the ECB over the past 6 months. Not only will the market be looking for clues about unconventional measures, but also about further rate cuts. Beyond cutting interest rates by 50bp, Trichet can either talk about unconventional measures vaguely or specifically. The more specific he is, the more bearish it will be for the EUR/USD. As the 50bp rate cut has been already discounted by the market, the operators are expecting clues about unconventional measures. If Trichet doesn’t mention them, the message will be disappointed.

12:27

[Comment From Kumar] What could be the reaction after the speech?

12:28

David Aranzabal:  We are going to upload a chart with the main supports and resistances for today.

12:28

12:28

Valeria Bednarik:   Hi kumar and welcome. Will depend on the speech if Mr Trichet limits to cut rates, I belive at the end will keep favoring Euro, but if que begins talking about other kind of mesures or quantitative easing, thins are going to be qutite different. Al least is what I expect

12:28

[Comment From petrick] May i know what's your view on the gbp/usd?? What will be the next resistance for the pair?

12:28

[Comment From Tarun] hello valeria...is gbp/usd in positive trend again ? is it aiming for 1.5000 and above

12:29

Valeria Bednarik:   Hi both of you! I place both questions togheter, because we are talking about GBP the currency has been stronger supported by lack of data yesterday, and better than expected today,

12:30

Valeria Bednarik:  I see an important resistance zone around 1.4780, where i see the pair adressing now. Clear break above, will probably yes! mean a retest of the 1.5000 zone

12:30

[Comment From Kumar] the links are not working

12:31

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12:31

Valeria Bednarik:  I kumar, links have a short delay, and questions are a lot! be a bit patient with us! Thank you

12:31

[Comment From ted] gd day to both hosts. how do u think today's decision will impact the eur/usd

12:31

[Comment From johnny] I am expecting a dramatic bearish pressure on EURUSD, EURJPY after ECB rate cut decision, then when the "storm" is over a bullish correction. Do you agree with me?

12:33

David Aranzabal:   Hello Ted and Johnny: Bear in mind that we have three significant events for today and tomorrow: -European Central Bank interest rate decision -The G20 meeting -U.S. non-farm payrolls report. So we can expect a lot of volatility during and after Trichet's speech

12:35

David Aranzabal:  So we have to be very careful about the final sentiment as some event can conflict each other.

12:36

[Comment From Furqan] Should we long euro or otherwise

12:36

Valeria Bednarik:  Furgan hi! I don't recomend to take any position roght now for two reasons. If you are a short trader, spikes can take you out. If you are a longer term one, we have to wait eitehr above 1.3410 or under 1.3280 to see more clear trend.

12:36

[Comment From marta] how do you think eur/usd is going to react?

12:36

Valeria Bednarik:  I expect choppy wide jumps till speach is over. and as said before, will depend on Trichets words

12:36

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12:37

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12:37

FXstreet.com:  Daily video about the main market news

12:37

FXstreet.com:  Expert Analysis of Today's Market

12:37

FXstreet.com:  Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead

12:37

[Comment From royston] i think the rate cuts have already been factored in.. what tricket say later that place more importance to the direction of the eurusd..

12:38

David Aranzabal:  Yes royston, exactly. The price is already factored in, so we have to wait for Trichet's speech.

12:38

David Aranzabal:   Beyond cutting interest rates by 50bp, Trichet can either talk about unconventional measures vaguely or specifically. The more specific he is, the more bearish it will be for the EUR/USD.

12:38

[Comment From Doko] Hi Valeria ! Sorry to say it but...... ha ha ha i was right last time ! EUR catapultet HIGH and NEVER looked back ! USD is DOOMED !

12:39

[Comment From kirill] I might agree with jonny

12:39

[Comment From Furqan] Yes should we do trading and sidelines for a while

12:39

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi Doko! really glad to see you here again! and yes you were right! Euro has regain ground since last meeting. Anyway, to say Euro is bullish I rather prefer to see it above the 1.3735 to see it really bullish

12:40

David Aranzabal:  Yes Furgan, that's the best option.

12:40

Valeria Bednarik:  Long term perspective for all majors is doom for em of course, but will see

12:40

[Comment From mafacifa] yeah..so where is the support before the correction for eurousd? 1.3200?

12:41

David Aranzabal:  We've got a support in today's swing low, just after the european opening.

12:41

David Aranzabal:  1.3250

12:42

FXstreet.com:  The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

12:42

FXstreet.com:  Trade for a living by David Aranzabal

12:42

David Aranzabal:  If that support is taken we have all the way down to 1.3200 area.

12:43

David Aranzabal:  Next support is 1.3160

12:43

12:43

[Comment From Guest] what do u think about EURGBP? Down trend I think. support at 0.8895?

12:43

Valeria Bednarik:  Yes! I see it down.. I has a nice head and shoulder figure in 4 hours charts, nect was around 0.9140 and price is a under that level. longer term correction could extend yes to 0.8850/0.8900 zone

12:43

[Comment From michael] Hi David,

12:43

David Aranzabal:  Hi Michel, how are you doing?

12:43

[Comment From Doko] Fed print money like no tomorrow ! Do you have GOLD ?

12:44

Valeria Bednarik:   Doko! i don't do you? anyway 2 MINUTES TO GO one more question

12:44

[Comment From durim] what is going on with euro/usd, it will be bearish or not after Trichet speech ?

12:44

[Comment From ted] thanks david. supposing the ecb cuts by 75bps..surely that'll be bearish for the eur?

12:45

David Aranzabal:  Hi, one minute for the release

12:45

FXstreet.com:  ECB has decided to cut the bench mark interest rate by 25bps to 1.25%

12:46

Valeria Bednarik:  Yes! less than market expectation

12:46

Valeria Bednarik:  Euro is runnining quickly high to test ressitance zone

12:46

David Aranzabal:  That's a surprise !!!!

12:47

[Comment From wijaya] I do not think could be bearish pressure so far ... may be tomorrow for NFP

12:47

David Aranzabal:  We are wathing Eur breaking preavious intraday high

12:47

Valeria Bednarik:   Well after this surprise as David says, we will have plenty of reactions today. Non Farm Payrolls are far away right now

12:48

David Aranzabal:  sorry, We are watching Eur breaking previous intraday high

12:48

Valeria Bednarik:   Euro settle a bit back from resistance zone. If stays around here and do a news attempt to test that zone, chances are on a break and continuation

12:48

[Comment From Yogesh] If Trichet says yes to Quantitative easing, then where do you think the EUR/USD pair will head to ?

12:49

Valeria Bednarik:  I don't really consider he will talk about it now, that he kept an ace on the sleeve, more rate cuts if needed by cutting just a 0.25%

12:49

Valeria Bednarik:  if he does, the pair can turn down

12:50

David Aranzabal:  Eur is coming back, it has lost all the rally up in 4 minutes.

12:50

Valeria Bednarik:  Well first spike dail to break ressitance. Continuation under actual candle minimum will find next suport at 1.3316

12:50

[Comment From alfa] r we specting some kind of 300 pips jump like march 18??

12:51

David Aranzabal:  It's possible, but we have to consider Trichet's speech.

12:51

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12:51

FXstreet.com:  The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

12:51

FXstreet.com:  Trade for a living by David Aranzabal

12:52

David Aranzabal:  And also G20 meeting. They can conflict each other,

12:52

[Comment From Yogesh] Do you think Trichet will go for & mention anything about Quantitative easing?

12:52

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi Yoghest, as said before, I don't expect that. Remember Euro zone is a zone.. not a country.. quantitative easing in 18 countries is not something easy to apply.Beside he reserves some cuts for the future. Market will probably settle down a bit and wait for his speach

12:53

[Comment From John] what's about EUR/JPY? Does it go down again today under 131?

12:53

[Comment From Daniel] wow nice jump

12:54

David Aranzabal:  Yes, but be careful, the sentiment can reverse.

12:54

FXstreet.com:   ECB has decided to cut the bench mark interest rate by 25bps to 1.25%

12:54

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi John! with Yen falling in the longer term, and ready to test the 100.00 or even break, and Euro spiking up, hard to see that pair coming back to that zone. Rather wait for a break above 134.20 and a bullish continuation there

12:54

[Comment From john] this certainly means more cuts in the pipeline and that's not pro euro ???

12:55

[Comment From Guest] should i go long or short on euro/usd

12:55

David Aranzabal:   I rather wait till things calm down

12:55

Valeria Bednarik:  John, that's not mea nmore rates in the future, just that ECB has still that tool aviable.

12:56

Valeria Bednarik:  as mentioned before not easy to aplly quantitative easing in a zone.

12:56

[Comment From macharia] am much expecting the rate to b reduced

12:57

David Aranzabal:  Hi macharia, ECB should decrease rates again in the next meeting. European economy is in troubles and Trichet may announce unconventional measures to stimulate economy.

12:58

[Comment From j] do you have any views of how gbp.usd is reacting - thanks

12:58

Valeria Bednarik:  Gbp has been quite bullish this week and above today's high, i expect more bullish continuation to 1.3780 zone, that should hold the upside at least in the short term. Strong resistnace there. Shorter term and under 1.4600, probable correction to this last bullish rally, support 1.4540 zone

12:58

[Comment From Guest] So, let me get this straight, Yes to QE is bearish for eur/usd?

12:59

Valeria Bednarik:  For me yes, but i don't expect that..

12:59

[Comment From adrian] does that on short term means euro will fall again ?

12:59

[Comment From Mark] Around what time will he speak?

12:59

David Aranzabal:  12:30 GMT

12:59

FXstreet.com:  Please take a look at the ECB offcial release at http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2009/html/pr090402.en.html

12:59

David Aranzabal:  so in 30 minutes time.

1:00	Valeria Bednarik:  Adrian, in the short term is a wait and see, until Trichet ends the speach or technically, until break of support or resistance level

1:00	[Comment From Tom] Why are you "PROS" always so non-comittal???

1:01	Valeria Bednarik:  Hi Tom! because we should messure our words.. many people could take our word for granteed.. and nobody is the owner of the true here. I can tell you from a technical perspective what are the higher posibilities for a pair.

1:02	David Aranzabal:  We are getting tons of headlines from Dow Jones at this moment about G20 meeting, so the reactions may conflict each others.

1:02	Valeria Bednarik:  bullish or bearish, but honestly, 100 % accurate in trading is no real. We could analize and share perspectives, yet if things go in the other way, people will blame us for there bad trades. See the point?

1:02	[Comment From Mark] Around what time will the speech happen?

1:03	David Aranzabal:  12:30 GMT

1:03	[Comment From j] hello - any views on how gbp.usd is reacting? thanks

1:03

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1:04	FXstreet.com:  The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

1:04	FXstreet.com:  Trade for a living by David Aranzabal

1:04	[Comment From Rohit] What effect done in Gold on ECB interest rate cut?

1:04	[Comment From adrian] does it mean ... euro will fall down in the next few hours ?

1:05	David Aranzabal:  Hi Rohit, At this moment the sentiment is bullish in the short term, but the price is getting difficulties to reach the 50% fib retr. from the previous leg down.

1:05	Valeria Bednarik:   i don't expect ECB to produce any direct effect on gold, but in market sentiment.. and then market sentiment produce and effect on gold. that's is a common refuge in turmoil times and continues above 900. As long as remains there, the 1000 remains a high posibility

1:06	[Comment From ted] wad unconventional measures can be applied?

1:06	Valeria Bednarik:  At this point I don't consider any unconventional messure would be mentioned

1:06	[Comment From Doko] Dear David Europe understand that PRINTING money DO NOT stimulate ANYTHING but INFLATION !

1:08	[Comment From Mark] thanks

1:09	Valeria Bednarik:  As David said before, we have also some statments in the middle of G 20 memebers. Euro continues pushing higher in a mixed high risk data moment. let's see if manages to break 1.4420 recent high.

1:10	David Aranzabal:  Hi Doko, Trichet is playing a very conservative roll in this game. USA and UK are printing money like crazy but tha can have side effects in the future. Even we have to consider that Europa has more difficulties for doing that as we have got different counties.

1:10	[Comment From paul idowu] what is the effect of the cut on eur/usd,eur/jpy gbp/usd and gbp/jpy

1:10	Valeria Bednarik:  Hi paul! we have been posting comments about those pairs, please read above

1:10	[Comment From Dusan] Market sentiment is maily driven by expectations. Do you think, that another 25pb cut expected at next ECB meeting will be bearish for Euro during next weeks?

1:11	[Comment From kent] so u advise we wait till Trichet speech

1:12	David Aranzabal:  Hi Kent, yes, better stay aside till the press conference finishes.

1:12	Valeria Bednarik:  I will rather wait how we close the week Dursan tomorrw we have NFP don't forget. And about sentiment on further rate cuts, will be clearer after trichet's words. My comment about a posibiliy is just expeculation

1:13	[Comment From Mohsin Sh] what do u suggest that Euro will be bullish or bearish as a result of Trichet speech

1:13	Valeria Bednarik:  Hi Mohnsin! will deppend on Trichet's words! no suggestion yet above 1.3420 bullish

1:13

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1:14	[Comment From ted] wad shld we be looking out for during trichet's speech

1:14	FXstreet.com:  The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

1:14	FXstreet.com:  Trade for a living by David Aranzabal

1:15	[Comment From amin] hay valeria wat do u fink about GBP/USD

1:15	Valeria Bednarik:   Hi amin! see previous comments! bullish above high importnat resistnace at 1.4780

1:16	Valeria Bednarik:  For the ones asking about gold, I turn to my friend CVJ and this is what he says!

1:16

Valeria Bednarik:  ld will continue to Base and fall in the near-Term as Safe-Haven Flows move out and Repatriate Funds into their own Economies. In the Mid-Term... Gold is not in any way eady to continue to collapse...and Appreciation is expected within the wide Volatille Swings. Look to the $880's/886.00 Area as Static Support woth the $950.00's as Static Resistance in the Near-Term.

1:16	[Comment From MH] I am new to this...but bam, eur and gbp went straight up...i thought someone already spoke...so this is like a "pre-reaction" to the speech?

1:17	David Aranzabal:  Hi Ted, That's depending of your trading horizon, short or long term. You can get very nice short opportunities but closing the positions very fast. On the other hand if your view is long tern you should look at the main support and resistance,

1:17	Valeria Bednarik:  no is a reaction to g20 comments particullary from U.K: Prime minister Brown, that is compeling the group to ACT

1:17	[Comment From alfa] i think people get crazy watching to other people opinion the so called analists but no one really knows whats going to happen news just gives u a techniucal point of view but they r guessing all the time and whe the contrary happens people tend to forget zand keep watching

1:18	[Comment From macharia] you mean that trinchet wil coment at 12.30 not 11.45

1:18	Valeria Bednarik:  Alfa, what a comment!!! but as you see, i'm not that kind of person

1:20

Valeria Bednarik:  I try always tried to gave my personal opinion and be clear about that, I always told you all to wait till a technical break to enter the market, and I have always bene honest here! When i don't know something, i ask someone who knows, or say I DON'T KNOW. no shame on that for me.

1:20	David Aranzabal:  Yes macharia, ECB Press conference starts at 12:30 GMT and usually lasts for 1 hour (speech + Q/A)

1:20	[Comment From Imran] what r the major supports and resistances for the Euro/Usd for today or short term trade

1:20	[Comment From Imran] may i request for supports and resistances of Euro/Usd for short term trade

1:21	David Aranzabal:  Hi Imran, I'm going to post again the EUR/USD chart:

1:21

1:21	[Comment From Carlos] it will go very deep, a downtrend rally, remember me...

1:21	[Comment From pepa] hi

1:21	[Comment From pepa] does the euro go to the target 1.3590

1:21	[Comment From Lumpi] Do you think EUR will reach 1.35 or 1.36?

1:22	Valeria Bednarik:   Hi Pepa! david will answer that

1:24

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1:24	David Aranzabal:  Hi pepa, Lump, 1,35 is possible to reach if the sentiment is in the upside after Trichet's speech. 1.36 is quite far away as the Eur has to ride 350 pis to reach it.

1:25	David Aranzabal:  (350 pips from the intraday low or daily range)

1:25	[Comment From ted] but its inflation rate is at an all time low

1:25	Valeria Bednarik:  And they want to keep it that way.. first priority of ECB always.. reason to exist

1:25	[Comment From pepa] if the euro break 1.3420 then what do you think about the new target

1:26	Valeria Bednarik:  1.3490 zone next resistance

1:26	[Comment From riley] entered a short position at 1.3417 let's see if it holds

1:26	FXstreet.com:  Soon Trichet's Speech will start

1:26	Valeria Bednarik:  Use a tight stop, and take profits quick if the pair remains above the 1.3400

1:26	[Comment From riley] do you think we'll see the dollar rise from possible deflation?

1:26	[Comment From alfa] if the eur/usd fail to break 1.3448 it is going to correct stay put to sell out the euro

1:28	David Aranzabal:  Hi Alfa, Be careful trying to get tops and buttons today. You have to be very fast in closing the position and use very tight stops please.

1:28	Valeria Bednarik:  Riley, I still believe that in the longer, longer term, U.S. economy will recover quicker than others, ans still don't see any fundamental reason for an euro apreciation.

1:28	[Comment From Carlos] jaja like weather forecasting...

1:29	Valeria Bednarik:  even worst Carlos! anyway, resistances tks God! are holding..

1:29	[Comment From Guest] Besides talking about QE, what other points could trichet touch on that could drastically affect the way the currencies move? Thanks

1:29	[Comment From diegot] will break the EUR/USD to 1.3420?

1:30	Valeria Bednarik:  Guest, besides quantitative easing. Trichet mentioned "alternative" or "non conventional messures" without any detail. Market could react to that, or to any statment about futher cuts or no more cuts. from here. That could be a big market mover for me

1:31	David Aranzabal:  Hi diegot, The price already touched 1.3420 and we have to wait for the event to finish

1:31	[Comment From vt] well seems like his words are having a bullish effect for the eur/usd

1:31	Valeria Bednarik:  meaning g20 words? yes.

1:31	[Comment From eddie] Am i correct in thinking that the speech starts in 15 minutes?

1:31	FXstreet.com:   US Jobless Claims +12K To 669K higest since 1982 Oct

1:32	FXstreet.com:  The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

1:32	FXstreet.com:  Trade for a living by David Aranzabal

1:32	Valeria Bednarik:  te speech starts now! a couple o f minutes

1:32	[Comment From john] the reaction high stopped just shy of the 50% retracement of the 3/19 high and the 3/30 low

1:32	Valeria Bednarik:  meaning Euro? ok tks for addding that!

1:32	[Comment From Guest] i think GBP/USD IT WILL REACH 1.4840

1:33	[Comment From BIN] GBP/USD IT WILL REACH 1.4840

1:33	Valeria Bednarik:  4780 is a tough resistnace zone.Above it, no doubs bullish continuation in the pair at least for me

1:33	[Comment From alfa] euro zone is doom trichet believe he is going to take advantage of the recovery of all the other nations that r doing something fast to recover and he is going to have a nice surpise when europe falls in a much bigger depresiion

1:34	Valeria Bednarik:  I agree with you alfa. 100 % here, about bigger depression in Europe

1:34	[Comment From x] eur/usd 1.3422

1:34	[Comment From Mark] euro/usd @ 1.3411

1:34	[Comment From pepa] the euro broke 1.3420 what do you think?

1:34	[Comment From Guest] how much more GBPUSD will go up

1:34	[Comment From jibran] how much more GBPUSD will go up

1:35	Valeria Bednarik:  Euro continues reboiunding in that zone and gave a nice come back. still needs to break to confirm bullish good the short!

1:35	[Comment From alfa] valeria do not miss understand my comment what im trying to say is that people are very much emmotional and dont think clear during this news and even the best analist can not fight people fear to missed a rally or an opportunity that at the end will go agains them

1:35	FXstreet.com:   here ECB official site http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html

1:37

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi alfa! it's ok! yes people is emotional here. too much. and you are right. Taht's why i try to limit to technical points. But no problems we are here to share opinions and views. I'm at the end of the day just another analyst.. maybe with some more experience than others.. no Expert, no genious.. no fortune teller ;)

1:38	David Aranzabal:  Hi Guest, jibran, GBP/USD is very overbought at this moment and I expect a reaction to the downside. The pair usually imitates EUR/USD in the announcements.

1:38	Valeria Bednarik:  Nenawhile, euro again is pushing higher.. Trichet produce the 30 pips spike effect... each word made euro jum one way or the other.. wait now till he ends is the best i can say right now

1:39	[Comment From glen] hi val, i'm back. What U think about jobless and ADP relationship, It's will coming 9 minutes, is USD down

1:39	David Aranzabal:  Anyway let's see if 1.4800 level holds on the upside

1:40	[Comment From sajith] GBP will go up till 1.4810 and EURO will go near 1.3640

1:40	Valeria Bednarik:  Hi Glen! ADP and NFP have had big lacks in the past, turning more accurate.. I guess NFP will be quite negative tomorrow, and yes turn USD down

1:41	[Comment From Guest] GBPUSD will beat the resistance 4770/80

1:41	Valeria Bednarik:  Ok Guest, tks for sharing your comments

1:41	[Comment From Imran] Hi valeria I am a beginer in the forex market can u suggest me a position in Euro/Usd with a stop mentioned so that I can recover my loss last friday of about 300 pips Plz

1:42	Valeria Bednarik:   I can help you yes, but not here. Send me an email and will gladly do it

1:42	[Comment From min] what r we looking out for in trichet's speech to affect the euro?

1:42	David Aranzabal:  Sajith, Cable is trying to reach 1,4720 again, if breaks, we can see 1.4800 area.

1:42	Valeria Bednarik:  something like unconventional messures, no more rate cuts, or more rate cuts.

1:43	[Comment From Guest] eur/jpy can move above134?

1:43	Valeria Bednarik:  Please read above, we have an importnat ressitance around 1.3420.. above that, the pair will turn bullish yes

1:43	[Comment From Haiduk] US consumer is saturated with goods and debt, no reason to recover unless USD depreciates, then US can get back to work producing

1:44	FXstreet.com:   Sorry ,, we have about 10 minutes left....Please ask anything related to the markes to Valeria and David

1:44	[Comment From jp] market has touched the bottom in mid january and gradually moving towards the point where it was before crisis and in fact heading up lot faster than expected by many economist

1:44	FXstreet.com:  The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

1:44	FXstreet.com:  Trade for a living by David Aranzabal

1:45	David Aranzabal:  Trichet is already live .His speech is sending the Euro UP

1:45	David Aranzabal:  Some Headlines:

1:45	David Aranzabal:  12:35 GMT Trichet: Inflationary Pressure Diminishing 12:35 GMT Trichet: ECB To Meet CPI Objective Over Medium Term

1:46	[Comment From Guest] Thanks Valerie...always appreciate your comments

1:46	[Comment From Mukarram] I don't think support and resistance level have importance at this stage, all depends on Mr. Trichet :)

1:46	FXstreet.com:  Trichet has said CPI will remainbelow 2% in 2009 and 2010. this comment has driven the EUR higher

1:47	Valeria Bednarik:   Hi Mukarram, well of course.. but at the end, levels will speak!

1:47	[Comment From john] patience i have found to be a virtue worthy of many pips

1:47	[Comment From Guest] Guys, do not you think that claiming well anchored CPI inflation, the head of ECB is giving a hint that further cuts are possible?

1:47	[Comment From Guest] trichet said they dont expect recovery in 2009 and EURO spikes! whats going on

1:47	David Aranzabal:  Questions and Answers session in the ECB meeting has already started.

1:48	David Aranzabal:  So stay tune because it's the time of maximum volatility

1:48

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1:48	Valeria Bednarik:   Hi all, hope we can answer all comments! Guest, euro is apreciating becuase of the smaller rate than expected. However if you read above, I see no fundamental reason to a continuation in the longer term

1:49	[Comment From pepa] do you think that euro break 1.3500

1:49	David Aranzabal:  Usually the price goes up and down till the conference finishes

1:49	FXstreet.com:   here ECB official site http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html

1:50	Valeria Bednarik:  Has just tested the descentant trend line in David charts. break above, will mena further coninuation above that level yes

1:50	[Comment From alfa] good edge to sell euro should wait to get confirmation but it is a very good edge to sell

1:50	[Comment From Kevin] I don't have a TV. When will the Trichet speech end?

1:50	Valeria Bednarik:  Shoul correct yes!

1:50	[Comment From Imran] Thanx Valeria Can I have ur email address plz?

1:51	Valeria Bednarik:  trough the blog yes! ol valbednarik@gmail.com

1:51	[Comment From Guest] he said severed downturn and its still going up

1:51	David Aranzabal:  Hi Kevin , You can follow Trichet's speech at http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html

1:51	David Aranzabal:  Live webcast: press conference link

1:51

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1:51	Valeria Bednarik:  yes guest that's why i rather be here during his comments, and not trading.. I will wait te end of the speech and watch my technicalpoints

1:51	[Comment From john] i see daily trend line resistence on gu from the 2/9 high comming in at around 1.4730 ish

1:52	FXstreet.com:  The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

1:52	FXstreet.com:  Trade for a living by David Aranzabal

1:52	David Aranzabal:  That's the power of internet. We don't need TV

1:52	Valeria Bednarik:  a bit above yes john!

1:52	[Comment From Doko] I am amazed how Americans portray Europe as worst place ! May I ask this people WHERE BMW is produced ? May be in Detroit ! HA ha ha..... the PROPAGANDA in America is CONSTANTLY bombarding Americans with FAILS information !

1:52	[Comment From adrian] how much up ?

1:52	Valeria Bednarik:  Above the line, close to 1.3600

1:53	David Aranzabal:  Some Headlines: 12:49 GMT Trichet: Overnight Rates Should Fall Further 12:49 GMT Trichet:Don't Expect To Cut Deposit Rate In Period To Come

1:53	[Comment From Robert] long term, where do you see the EUR/USD headed??

1:53	Valeria Bednarik:  no long term perspective here for me. Bullish above 1.3740 zone, or bearish unde 1.3100 maybe.

1:53	[Comment From Imran] Thanx Valeria Can I have ur email Address plz?

1:53	[Comment From ejo] what do you expect for Gold if EURO goes above 1.3500?

1:53	[Comment From robocop] what do you guys think of sterling?

1:54	David Aranzabal:  Sterling is imitating Eur, so please follow EUR/USD reactions.

1:55	[Comment From pepa] thank you Sir about all information

1:55	[Comment From Imran] thanx Valeria

1:55	[Comment From Guest] seems to be calming down and following the trend

1:56	[Comment From alfa] i love eur rallies cause the rise like a palm and fall like a cocunut

1:56	Valeria Bednarik:  Gold is posted above ejo, please take a look CVJ has already help us with that!

1:57	[Comment From Guest] why would euro go up when trichet says severe downturn

1:57	[Comment From Guest] why CPI below 2% is Eur bullish ?

1:57	FXstreet.com:  Sorry people here time is up ... Let me sum up the ECB decision. ECB has decised to cut the benchmark inerest rate by 25 bps to 1.25%. Trichet's speeh has driven the EUR/USD further.. EUR/USD has reached once at 1.3495.

1:58	David Aranzabal:  Yes, we can see very violent reactions till the event finishes

1:58	[Comment From pounds] what event?

1:59	Valeria Bednarik:   About gold, a last comment: Euro is moving on trichet words, and no correlation between them right now!

2:00	[Comment From Guest] Thanks Valeria, you are very competent and kind

2:00	Valeria Bednarik:  your welcome..

2:00	[Comment From john] thank you excellent commentary

2:00	[Comment From ejo] what's expected max for gbp/usd today

2:00	David Aranzabal:  Pounds, The event is the Q&A. That's the final part of the meeting, where journalists make questions to Trichet.

2:00	Valeria Bednarik:  1.4770/80.. at least for me!

2:02	Valeria Bednarik:  Well i guess this is the end so we are going to post a final commnent and wait for you people in both our blogs

2:03

David Aranzabal:   I'm sorry really, but I must leave you all now. I'll be back around the blog, to post the conclusions of all this, in about half an hour, after Trichet finish his speech. I'll be posting in the blog everything related to price action after the event. http://blogs.fxstreet.com/tradingliving/ Always an honour to be here with all of you.

2:03	FXstreet.com:  Well Thank you Valeria and David for the participation today... we FXstreet really appreciate that

2:03	Valeria Bednarik:   As always, an honor to be here with you all! always! see you soon and tks Fxstreet.com!

2:04	David Aranzabal:  So if you visit FXstreet blog http://blogs.fxstreet.com/tradingliving/ I'll post educational information about the event.

2:05	Valeria Bednarik:  ECB surprising decision to cut rates just a 0.25% has sent dollar down across the board.

2:05	FXstreet.com:   And thank you for joinin the live coverage,,, If you have any questions. Please follow up with their blogs,

2:06	Valeria Bednarik:  Gbp is the overall winner of this event

2:06	Valeria Bednarik:   as contiunes breaking to the upside. Ok see you in the blogs!

2:10	FXstreet.com:   Thank you for coming. I hope to see you all tomorrow here for NFP live coverage ...

2:11	FXstreet.com:  I would like to specially thank CMS Forex, today’s sponsor, for their support. Open a live account with CMS with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now. Use the following links to follow up about today’s main market news.

2:11	FXstreet.com:  CMS General Research page

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2:12	FXstreet.com:  Okay See you tomorrow by for now

2:13