BoE and ECB Live Coverage
| BoE and ECB Interest Rates decission Live Coverage with Valeria Bednarik | (05/07/2009) |
11:44 | FXstreet.com: Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's BoE and ECB Interest Rates Decisions Live Coverage will start in 10 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Valeria Bednarik who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. She will be giving us a direct picture fo the market status. |
11:44 | FXstreet.com: Valeria Bednarik has been an active Forex trader for the last 4 years, specializing in the International Foreign Exchange Market. She also graduates in the Universidad Catolica del Salvador, in Argentina, as a Public Account, specializing in financials and cost managements. She currently manages an important clients portfolio for IFX Markets, Boston and is senior trader manager at Molfx-Management; besides she works training new traders with Trader College LLC specializing in technical analysis, for the English speaking community. |
11:45 | FXstreet.com: Valeria will be one of the speakers at the FXstreet.com International Traders Conference in October 2009 Barcelona. |
11:46 | FXstreet.com: International Traders Conference 2009 – October 14-16 - Barcelona (Spain) |
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11:46 | FXstreet.com: CMS General Research page |
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11:49 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi everybody and welcome to this live coverage! |
11:49 | FXstreet.com: Please take a look at Valeria's blog where you can find rich market info. |
11:49 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
11:50 | FXstreet.com: okay everyone,, while waiting for Valeria,, Let's vote the polls! |
| 11:50 | Will the BoE cut the bench mark interest rate? Yes, the BoE will cut it by 25bps to 0.25%. ( 0% ) ( 0% ) ( 78% ) ( 11% ) ( 11% ) |
11:50 | Valeria Bednarik: In acouple of minutes, we will be starting with BOE decision. |
11:51 | [Comment From nour] welcome everyone |
11:51 | [Comment From Aram] Hi, Valeria....... If BOE leave IR in 0.5% does it mean good for Cable and Bullish for it first res is 1.5300? |
11:51 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Aram! I expect BOE to leave rates unchanged yes, and probably be good for Gbp |
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11:53 | Valeria Bednarik: I believe the pair has nice room to go, once 1.5110 zone has been broke. Taje a look at daily charts and see the strong level we have there. No matter what happens today, if the pair remains above that level, longer term perspective remains pretty bullish for me |
11:54 | [Comment From fx] hi everybody |
11:54 | [Comment From fx] hi, would like to know after BOE has announce, where do u think the GBP/JPY pair will go |
11:54 | Valeria Bednarik: let me see the chart |
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11:55 | Valeria Bednarik: 151.50 that's the first target zone to the upside. If pair breaks above that, and close day above it, I expect the 154.00 in a couple of days |
11:56 | Valeria Bednarik: to the downside, 145.50 is also a reasonable zone, if Gbp falls. I don't "marry" any perspective, you know? rather consider supp and res, and once one broken go for it! |
11:56 | [Comment From wijaya] hi |
11:56 | [Comment From DUKUNFOREX] What do you think with EURUSD ? |
11:57 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Duku, I think ECB will cut rates, yet, as usual, market will probably wait for Trichet's words later: if he announce any credit easing, non convencioanl messure, that seems unlikely, but posible, |
11:58 | Valeria Bednarik: euro could tumble.. But we will have to wait and see |
11:58 | [Comment From Ahmar] Where do you see the pound topping? |
11:58 | Valeria Bednarik: 1.5280/1.5310 |
11:58 | [Comment From rim] do you think it may goup thee really ? since the crisis already xist |
11:59 | Valeria Bednarik: Sorry Rim don't understand what you mean... goup thee really? remember english is not my language.. give me a hand here.. tks! |
11:59 | [Comment From cesar] Hi Valeria: how about the GBP / USD. How many points do you think it will go up |
12:00 | FXstreet.com: BoE has decided to hold the benchmark rates at 0.50%! |
12:00 | Valeria Bednarik: Well cesar, i guess already answer that above. check please |
12:00 | Valeria Bednarik: surprise! |
12:00 | FXstreet.com: BoE has decided to hold the benchmark rates unchanged at 0.50%! |
12:01 | Valeria Bednarik: breaking quiclky under the 1.5110 ! intermediate support around 1.5050 |
12:01 | [Comment From shariq] hello everyone ! |
12:01 | [Comment From mohamed amin] will the EURO be weakened more than this? |
12:02 | Valeria Bednarik: For euro, we will have to wait a bit, Mohamed! |
12:03 | FXstreet.com: hi every one! today we have a sepcial guest. CVJ! Tim Salem. |
12:03 | Valeria Bednarik: Togheter with rates, BOE is making some announcements, and maybe there we have the clue of the fall, they expect CPI to continue dropping! |
12:03 | FXstreet.com: Tim Salem ( CVJ ) is the Owner/CEO of UltraMax Group, LLC; and a private retail Trader for himself and others. He is currently embarking on the Commodity Trading Advisor track (CTA). |
12:04 | FXstreet.com: He has been an FXStreet Premium Member since it's inception, and credits the majority of his successful learning curve since early 2005 to the Professional Presenters and Content learned there. |
12:04 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Tim! welcome, glad you join us! |
12:04 | [Comment From shariq] GBP/Jpy looks bullish but depends on what happens |
12:04 | FXstreet.com: Forex Trading Today by Tim Salem (CVJ) |
12:04 | [Comment From james] true |
12:04 | [Comment From mohamed amin] thnx valeria |
12:04 | [Comment From mohamed amin] do u have any pre-thoughts for it's trend? |
12:05 | Valeria Bednarik: If pair manages to recoup 1.5115/20 zone, as posted earlier, bullish trend will remain intact for me in the term |
12:05 | Valeria Bednarik: Only clear break under 1.5000 can change that |
12:05 | [Comment From arfan] looks like gbp/jpy fail to go up? |
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12:06 | [Comment From Tim Salem (CVJ)] Hi Val!...Great to be with again ! |
12:07 | [Comment From Ahmar] additional QE...now what do you predict? |
12:07 | Valeria Bednarik: Arfan! Tim is an expert on that pair! he will take your question! give him one sec to conect |
12:07 | [Comment From Tim Salem (CVJ)] HI Shariq!... Pound Yen does look slightly Bullish in the Immediate-Term... although with recent Consolidation we have slightly Neutral Bias , and if 148.80's Dynamic Support willnot hold...then Bearish Sentiment returns... |
12:08 | Valeria Bednarik: Ahmar, guess from here we are heading to the 1.5000 zone. let's see if holds. |
12:08 | [Comment From saji] can u tel me wats the support level of eur/usd. |
12:09 | Valeria Bednarik: yes Saji 1.3220 zone for me is the point to beat to the downside . 1.3440 to the upside. Closer ones, we will look 10 minutes before rates ok? |
12:09 | [Comment From keepitreal] raising rates equals strong currency.. i guess they were expecting rates to raise. |
12:10 | Valeria Bednarik: I guess we wont see any rate rise nowhere this year Keepitreal. :) |
12:10 | [Comment From yasir kidwai] Hi valeria what you think about pound |
12:10 | [Comment From Tarun] hi valeria, if it breaks 1.5000 what its next point to reach ? |
12:10 | FXstreet.com: Please take a look at our news http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=3b7ce457-5c34-4f07-a637-f8d818cd088d |
12:11 | Valeria Bednarik: bit far for today, but 1.4920 with an intemediate support at 1.4960 zone |
12:11 | [Comment From DAVID] Good morning guys. What do you think about USDCAD? are we finnally seen a retracement up to the 1.20??? |
12:11 | FXstreet.com: okay while waiting for the ECB decision,,, let me know your opinion! let's vote the vole! |
| 12:11 | Will the ECB low the bench mark interest rate? Yes, the ECB will cut it by 25bps ( 63% ) ( 6% ) ( 3% ) ( 25% ) ( 0% ) ( 3% ) |
12:12 | [Comment From Tim Salem (CVJ)] keepitreal...Not neccessarily... Quantitative Easing places heavy Risk on CentralBank Policy...so alot of the "Normal" Relationships lke that we have are not in Play here... Always be Mindful of Institutional Re-Positioning prior to Data Points.... as we say, The Big Boys will use Block Orders for their own benefit and cause Price fluctuations when needed. |
12:12 | [Comment From Dr.Sivaraman] HiVal and CVJ - a typical false rise before data and then drop after unchanged interest rate decision - when ttraders turn bearish GBP is expected to rise again - just a comment |
12:13 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Dr. Sivaraman! tks for being here! and for your ideas! |
12:13 | [Comment From Tim Salem (CVJ)] Indeed, Dr. S!... Welcome and thanks for joining us!...Great to see you again! |
12:14 | [Comment From Evens] Why does holding on rates cause the gbp to drop? |
12:14 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi David! I don't see Cad ready to retrace yet, less with oil rising fast! Tim what do you think? |
12:15 | [Comment From arfan] thanks tim :) |
12:16 | Valeria Bednarik: they don't only hold rates Evens, they also announce more quantitative easing guess the answer is there |
12:16 | [Comment From Tarun] hello sivaraman sir, what can i expect at the end of eur session in eur/usd and gbp/usd ? will they rise or drop ? and please let me know the changes in US session |
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12:16 | Valeria Bednarik: Tarum! I don't know if he is still around, yet if he is, I will gladly publish hos answer |
12:16 | FXstreet.com: CMS General Research page |
12:16 | FXstreet.com: Daily video about the main market news |
12:16 | FXstreet.com: Expert Analysis of Today's Market |
12:16 | FXstreet.com: Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead |
12:16 | [Comment From ifxworld] where do you see Yen crosses heading? With risk sentiment increasing, USD on the bearish side, Crude heading north.. a sign for yen to loose strength? |
12:17 | [Comment From Dr.Sivaraman] Hi tarun - I am not the host here to reply - I have given in my blog the answer already |
12:18 | [Comment From yasir kidwai] valeria u think that gold is going to touch 945 |
12:18 | FXstreet.com: Book your seat before it's too late... This year seats are limited to 60! Don't wait too much! Confirmed speakers so far are James Chen, Valeria Bednarik, Markus Heitkoetter and Rob Booker! More to be confirmed very soon! |
12:18 | FXstreet.com: International Traders Conference 2009 – October 14-16 - Barcelona (Spain) |
12:18 | Valeria Bednarik: Ifxworld I see Yen waking yes, take a look at USD JPY... and the strong level around 99.60 zone. Clear break above it, could trigger some more yen fast selling. |
12:18 | [Comment From Aram] if Cable can not break 1.5000 will it resume bullish trend or consolidatte? |
12:19 | Tim Salem: Hi yasir... Gold willAppreciated a bit more as the $950's is largely the Mean here... although $1000 may be slightly our of reach for now in the Immediate-Term. Another Correction is needed for additional Long-Builds... asthere maybe COMEX Options Barriers and such at $1000 with heavy Defenders to holdthe Area.... |
12:20 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Aram, i believe above 1.5115 zone cable will resume the uptren |
12:20 | [Comment From Dr.Sivaraman] Thanks Val- after ECB announces the rate a quick drop is expected in EURO and GBP and then rise from 12:40-13:00 GMT |
12:20 | [Comment From Tarun] yeah sure sir, thanks alot am very regular to your blog posts . |
12:20 | [Comment From Tarun] valeria can you please tell the support and resistance levels in eur/usd and gbp/usd |
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12:21 | FXstreet.com: Forex Trading Today by Tim Salem (CVJ) |
12:22 | [Comment From yasir kidwai] thanks tim |
12:22 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
12:23 | Tim Salem: Tarun...Eurois Range-Bound at 1.3245 Support through 1.3373 Resistance from an Hourly View... Cable is the 1.50 Handle to 1.5164 from an IntraDay View...also largely Range-Bound there prior tothe Decision.... |
12:23 | [Comment From ifxworld] AUD and NZD crosses made significant gains after better than expected unemployment data.. do you see these pairs heading higher in the short - med term? |
12:24 | Valeria Bednarik: AHH that's another for Mr CVJ he is an expert there!
|
12:24 | [Comment From Tarun] thanks alot tim |
12:25 | FXstreet.com: Forex Trading Today by Tim Salem (CVJ) |
12:25 | Valeria Bednarik: Tarum, I agree with Tim.. about those levels! |
12:25 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
12:25 | Tim Salem: ifx... I do in the Near-Term... but we know The Yen Crosses, don't We! ...so Corrective Behavior is never far from View!... Fibonacci's and Round Numbers are deeply effective on the Pacific Crosses, so check your Levels there for possible Corrective Areas..... |
12:26 | [Comment From arben] the ECB will cut it by 25 bps and euro will strength againts US, GBP |
12:27 | Valeria Bednarik: Arben I believe market attention will be more in the so so many boring, repeat, speculation on "non conventional measures". As i said before, seems hard to see such announcement, but posible. |
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12:28 | [Comment From Tarun] am very much thankful valeria and tim . thanks alot |
12:28 | [Comment From eli] Why would the Euro Strength ? |
12:29 | Tim Salem: Certainly Our Pleasure, Tarun!... Keep them coming, Everyone!...The Interaction is what makes this Successful for All!..... |
12:30 | [Comment From uli] eur Minimum Bid Rate any idea?? |
12:31 | Valeria Bednarik: Uli, in 1 minute we will now! |
12:31 | Valeria Bednarik: sorry 15 minutes! |
12:31 | [Comment From r] euro |
12:31 | Tim Salem: The Euro may strengthen, Eli, simply due to any "attrached" Statement or Rhetoric that may follow with the Decision..also... from Order Flow... INstitutional Entities will pullout out of the market for Short-Covering...allow Price to Rise... to Re-Position for new Shorts as well. |
12:31 | [Comment From hero] if the ECB leaves the rate at 1.25 what would happen? |
12:32 | [Comment From eli] Any view on the cable ? |
12:32 | Valeria Bednarik: Eli, read above.. we have posted Gbp views.. break under 1.5050 to 1.5000 above 1.5115 again up |
12:33 | [Comment From yasir kidwai] thanks a lot Tim and Valeria I really appreciate |
12:33 | FXstreet.com: International Traders Conference 2009 – October 14-16 - Barcelona (Spain) |
12:33 | FXstreet.com: Book your seat before it's too late... This year seats are limited to 60! Don't wait too much! Confirmed speakers so far are James Chen, Valeria Bednarik, Markus Heitkoetter and Rob Booker! More to be confirmed very soon! |
12:34 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Hero! i believe euro is under pressure, but if they leave unchange, there are chances to see it strenghten |
12:34 | Tim Salem: Cable, Eli may slightly fall if they Hold Rates... and again...due to InstitutionalRe-Positioning from the 1.500 Handle Area.....then they will look to regain Buying Opportunities towards the 1.5100 Area.... |
12:34 | [Comment From Guest] if the ECB leaves the rate at 1.25 what would happen? |
12:34 | [Comment From Pepa] HI everbody |
12:35 | Valeria Bednarik: Be patient please with questions, we are two answering, and hundreds of you asking! gave us ome time ok? TKSSS |
12:35 | Valeria Bednarik: but KEEP ASKING, we love to answer all. |
12:35 | Tim Salem: Always try to remember a General Principle... Price will always eventually "Gravitate" to where it has been before... the Central Line of Tendency...so S?R Areas we see now...willcome backinto View down the Road..... |
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12:36 | [Comment From dana] if the ecb cut the rate .25 what would happen |
12:38 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Dana, as commented earlier, market is already expecting such cut, don't expect much action there, but later Trichet will be the clue |
12:38 | Valeria Bednarik: Break under 1.3280 could send the pair close to 1.3220/40 zone. Above 1.3345, up |
12:38 | [Comment From dana] thanks bednarik |
12:39 | Valeria Bednarik: You re welcome! |
12:39 | [Comment From agapeo] Hello Valeria and Tim, thanks for covering today. Is there any chance ecb will cut 50 bp on your opinion, for futures price this? |
12:39 | Valeria Bednarik: Gpb continues aproacching to 1.5050 level. We have the 20 SMA there |
12:40 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
12:40 | Valeria Bednarik: in 4 hours charts! Gbp usually respects it as dynamic supp or ress level, let see today! |
12:40 | FXstreet.com: Forex Trading Today by Tim Salem (CVJ) |
12:40 | [Comment From guest] 0.25 is price on market so will be range on eur/usd i think |
12:40 | Tim Salem: Indeed...Trichet's Rhetoric at the Press Conference willbe more crucial than ever!... As nothing said about future Rate Hikes will be Key to listen for.... |
12:41 | Valeria Bednarik: exactly Tim! tks for reminding us that! |
12:41 | [Comment From Guest] hi, if pound manage to stay above 15050 can it go back to 15110 |
12:41 | Valeria Bednarik: that's the point Guest yes! |
12:41 | [Comment From luca] hi |
12:41 | [Comment From Abz] how do you think the data coming out of the US around the same time will effect price action on EUR/USD? |
12:42 | Tim Salem: Yes...as Trichet is still sticing with largely Inflationary Views.. and is not reallyin favor of the "Global Quantitative Easing" Party.... :-) |
12:42 | Valeria Bednarik: Employment data could yes, affect a bit Abz, as we have Non Farm Payrolls tomorrow! any employment tip will be carefully consider today |
12:42 | [Comment From skd32566] you guys are great...thanks for your knowledge, time and efforts!! |
12:42 | Valeria Bednarik: Really tks for that SKD! |
12:43 | Valeria Bednarik: 3 minutes to go |
12:43 | Tim Salem: Abz...it may have a slight effect... although usually with "Fundamnetal" consideration s like this... The deepest Even with "Anticipation" with take Precedence. |
12:44 | [Comment From dimitris] what's your opinion about today and after that about the trend in general ? |
12:44 | Tim Salem: Valis straight-on here...Overallin my Larger MacroViews... Range-Bound Activity is still Valid leading into NFP... ( for those of you who know me and my Weekly and Monthly Views... ) |
12:45 | Valeria Bednarik: For me, Gpb bullish, Euro bearish! Tim what do you think? |
12:45 | FXstreet.com: ECB has decided to cut the bench mark rates by 25 bps to 1.00% |
12:46 | Valeria Bednarik: Ok, what market was expecting, probably priced in.. let's see how things develop, |
12:46 | FXstreet.com: ECB has decided to cut the bench mark rates by 25 bps to 1.00% |
12:46 | Tim Salem: Dmitir...please be more specific...Which Macro-Trends are you referring to?... Fiber and Cable?... Yes...in the Immediate-Term I am in agreement with Val...since both Decisions are largely "Priced-In"... it is Trichet's Rhetoric that will have more Momentum here...than the BoE's Position with the Pound. |
12:46 | Valeria Bednarik: Correct me if i'm weong, that's an historical low there right? |
12:46 | [Comment From mohamed amin] i begin to worry about the EUR/USD !!!!!!!! |
12:47 | Valeria Bednarik: wrong sorry... je |
12:47 | [Comment From Guest] So if GBP/Usd bullish and EURO/Usd bearish .. Euro/Gbp must be drop is it? |
12:47 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes, Guest, is a long term perspective.. and Gbp shoudl regain 1.51 zone...to confirm but yes! |
12:48 | [Comment From agapeo] They cut lending rate 50 bp to 1.75 btw |
12:48 | Valeria Bednarik: Fist euro spike is bullish, let's see if breaks the 1.3345 zone, |
12:48 | [Comment From Vincent] time to sell my aud...? |
12:49 | Valeria Bednarik: vincent, if you are profiting, of course! |
12:49 | Tim Salem: Yes, Val...as we may seea push to 1.3370's as well...for Re-Positioning for the Institutional Flow with attractive Pricing for Shorts.... |
12:50 | [Comment From Tarun] what about gbp/usd and gbp/jpy ? no much volatility in them as seen in eur/usd why ? |
12:50 | [Comment From james] false spike on eur yet again |
12:51 | FXstreet.com: Trichet speech is scheduled at 12:30 GMT (40 minutes to go) |
12:52 | Tim Salem: Tarun... in it's simplest Form... With all of the Appreciation Cable and Pound Yen have seen in the last Session... the "degree" of the Interest Rate Decision becomes a bit "Muted" and "Less-Important", if you will... for Price. |
12:52 | Valeria Bednarik: James, first spike is just that, first spike... nothing really to define a trend or so.. but break above previous level, and tending up |
12:53 | Valeria Bednarik: I rather wait for confirmations you know? not trading at this particular moment, |
12:53 | [Comment From guest] how long do u think eur/usd will carry on rising? |
12:54 | Valeria Bednarik: Guest, let me answer after Trichet! but honestly, not so much, unless clear break above 1.3440 |
12:54 | [Comment From Rob] Eur/GBP should be in a down trend if it holds below 0.8880. Do you think this resistance still stands? |
12:54 | Tim Salem: Indeed... Val is correct here...We want allof this "Noise" to work Its way through... as then you will have more "Quality Information" to Plan your potential Trades with... |
12:54 | Valeria Bednarik: Gbp 1.5050 hold, and price is above to regain the upside. |
12:55 | Valeria Bednarik: Exactly CVJ, that's the point! |
12:55 | FXstreet.com: Forex Trading Today by Tim Salem (CVJ) |
12:55 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
12:56 | [Comment From Rob] where do you see the resistance in EUR?GBP? |
12:56 | Valeria Bednarik: Rob, eur/gpb should hold under that zone yes, to remain bearish. Resistances for other two are already postead, read a bit up! tks. |
12:56 | [Comment From Tarun] eur/usd broke 1.3345 whats next target for it valeria ? |
12:56 | [Comment From Dusan] Good afteroon Valeria, |
12:57 | Tim Salem: Rob... for the Immediate-Term... you are correct here... as Euro Pound may simply Consolidate under the .8880's Resistance..It may attempt a Break..but we have a well-defined Range of .8665 - 8880 for It to work in.... |
12:57 | Valeria Bednarik: Tarum the 1.3370 zone mentioned by Tim, 1.3400 and 1.3440 |
12:57 | [Comment From amin] hi every one |
12:57 | [Comment From james] thanks for the insight valeria! |
12:57 | [Comment From Aram] How much is the ideal profit from forex per month? |
12:58 | Tim Salem: Rob... even a "tighter" Range of 8740 to 8880 is Valid there as well for you!..... |
12:58 | Valeria Bednarik: Aram, write to us, in our blogs and we will gladly help you with that |
12:58 | [Comment From Dusan] Good afternoon Valeria. What do you personally think - Will €/$ go up towards 1,35 or down towards 1,30 after Trichet speech? |
12:58 | [Comment From Guest] do you think it will go back to 15050 again? what is the next support? |
12:59 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Dursan will depend on the announcement. If ECB opens doors for furhter cuts, or announce other messures, 1,30. If don't 1.35 |
1:01 | Valeria Bednarik: quite simpe exposed, yet, not that simple in the facts, maybe i am answering short and quick to answer all.. and Europe situation deserves a full explanation. But well, i will try to made it on the blog later today, after the rates are over ok? |
1:01 | [Comment From Tarun] valeria how this will effect USD/JPY ? will bullish gbp/usd make usd/jpy bearish ?? |
1:01 | Tim Salem: Guest...it will surely depend on Trichet's Rhetoric looking into any potential Rate Hikes in the future... and from purely a Technical sense.. 1.500 is a "Deep Magnet" for the Pound due to Options Barriers on the other side now... which may pull Price back... |
1:01 | [Comment From oxgn] I think that 1.3373 zone will not be broken until the speech. |
1:01 | FXstreet.com: Forex Trading Today by Tim Salem (CVJ) |
1:01 | [Comment From miq-glen] ECB cut the rate but why EUR bullish |
1:01 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
1:02 | Tim Salem: Sorry, Guest!...Please ignore my Trichet comment in relation to the Pound... I am thinking of Trichet while looking at Cable... My Apologies... :-) |
1:03 | Valeria Bednarik: Tarun! I don't see much correlation these days between gbp and yen, better watch gbp cad correlation. Usd/Jpy has tested 99.50/60 zone UNCOUNTABLE times these days. If manages to break above, I see a retest of the 101.00 zone |
1:03 | [Comment From amin] valeria wat do u fink abt GBP/USD today later on and in da coming few days |
1:03 | [Comment From Mr. CAD] I think we should dump GBP given the massive quantitative easing announcement. Dont you think any ascendency is a selling opportunity now |
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1:04 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi amin, will depend on today's close.. for me, above 1.5115/20, the pair will regain the bullish side. under 1.5000, probably fall more in the next days, |
1:06 | Valeria Bednarik: Euro reaches first resistance zone... after breaking 1.3345 |
1:06 | [Comment From Ken (Spain)] Please define "other measures" does that mean "non-standard" or like US/BoE ? |
1:06 | Tim Salem: Mr, CAD...I am in favor of your View here... and despite the "over-zealousness"of Q.E. with the BoE... "Technically"... the Poundis due for a decent Corrective move anyway.... As your Rationale is correc there... THe Big Boys are looking for a "Sell-Into-Strength" View here... as the Options Barriers just below 1.50 are "Targets" for them to eliminate. |
1:07 | FXstreet.com: International Traders Conference 2009 – October 14-16 - Barcelona (Spain) |
1:07 | FXstreet.com: Book your seat before it's too late... This year seats are limited to 60! Don't wait too much! Confirmed speakers so far are James Chen, Valeria Bednarik, Markus Heitkoetter and Rob Booker! More to be confirmed very soon! |
1:07 | Valeria Bednarik: non standard yes ken, maybe purchasing assets..eurozone is a zone, not a country.. they can not apply exactly the same tools. UK and US did... so the surprise is what's making us all anxious |
1:07 | [Comment From Dusan] Valeria, thanks for your answer - it is obvious, but I asked on your personal feeling. |
1:08 | Valeria Bednarik: you re welcome of course |
1:08 | [Comment From Rohit] what do think about euro/usd in next trading session? |
1:08 | [Comment From Huzaifa Ali] Is there any updates about CHF ? |
1:09 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Huzaifa... let me see |
1:11 | Valeria Bednarik: General trend for me! remains bearish there, but! we have already had one SNB intervention to avoid appreciations in CFH and 1.1240 is a very strong support level. 1.1350 has proben also to be quite strong. under 1.1200 we can see more selling there, and a recoup above 1.1440 zone will made the pair regain the upside |
1:11 | [Comment From Ken (Spain)] 1.3373 just broke...no onelisten to oxgn |
1:11 | [Comment From Huzaifa Ali] r u getting my messages ? |
1:12 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes! we get all messages, with a bit of delay! you are in the world, Tim in the US me in Argentina, server in SPAIN... haha... please have some patient ok? TKS |
1:12 | [Comment From Tarun] okay valeria, am waiting for you to update your blog , so as you tim . |
1:12 | Tim Salem: Rohit... in the U.S. Session...we will see how U.S. Equities pick up with the Decisions in the Equity Futures... as these will find Correlation or Non-Correlation. The Euro "normally" wil lbegin to Pullback "theoretically" as the Data would have been "digested".... but again... THE KEY here is Trichet's Commentary at the Press Conference... as his words will "Set Up" the Fiber for the remainderof the Day. |
1:12 | Valeria Bednarik: Tks tarum, we will |
1:12 | [Comment From Mr. CAD] Valeria what is your view on the EURCHF |
1:13 | Valeria Bednarik: let me find the chart! but Tim is following it better than me! |
1:14 | [Comment From Huzaifa Ali] What is the expection of gold today |
1:15 | Valeria Bednarik: Mr, Cad, euro chf seems to been consolidating after bottoming around 1.5000 level, and seems for me, bullish with next target zone around 1.5240, resistance level |
1:16 | [Comment From naeem] Hi this is Naeem what is the recation of rate cut |
1:17 | Valeria Bednarik: Recation? sorry naeem don't understand your question |
1:17 | [Comment From Mr. CAD] Thanks TIM. I added to my shorts now |
1:17 | [Comment From naeem] can u tell me about euro |
1:17 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
1:17 | Valeria Bednarik: Naeem, euro now will be on hold waiting for Trichet around this zone. Take a look up at previous answers |
1:17 | [Comment From DUKUNFOREX] I think EURUSD double top 1.3384 |
1:17 | [Comment From bester] jeee... why do we all love trading so much!!! |
1:17 | FXstreet.com: Forex Trading Today by Tim Salem (CVJ) |
1:17 | Tim Salem: Huzaifa... from the IntraDay View...Gols rests on the 38.2 % Fib of the prior 1005 Daily High... it may Consolidate here for a bit...and then begin to Correct. Gold is moving purely on Emotional Sentiment the last few months...so Fear will drive it Higher with Safe-Haven Status...and Risk Appetite will drive it lower. Its Own Fundamentals are largely irrelevant right now. In the Mid-Term...a Correction back tothe 900 Figure is Highly-Plausible. |
1:18 | Valeria Bednarik: Good question Bester! I will reserve my answer there, sorry! |
1:18 | [Comment From Ken (Spain)] thanks for the previous answer Valeria. What is the worst thing that you believe Trichet could say? Worse being defined as what would hurt the euro the most (make it go down toward 1.30) |
1:19 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Ken! further rate cuts, or measures like buying assests or so |
1:19 | [Comment From Ken (Spain)] where can you watch his speech live? |
1:19 | Valeria Bednarik: at ECB home page! |
1:19 | [Comment From naeem] what about euro and gpb/yen |
1:20 | [Comment From amin] dear valeria i want to know more abt da currencies specially GBP/USD so all i want is dat if i can keeppmin touch wiv you by mail or any other way |
1:20 | Tim Salem: In agreement, Val!... Trichet's Commentary on the Purchasing of Private Securities and Governments Bonds... and their Re-Allocation. |
1:21 | Valeria Bednarik: yes amin no problem! valbednarik@gmail.com is my mail |
1:21 | [Comment From keynes] can you tell me your opinion about stress test results will take it to 1,25 again ? |
1:21 | FXstreet.com: Here you can check the live ECB speech.... starting soon http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html |
1:23 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Keynes, today 5 pm east! Stress Test results another jump in markets! I believe it will come out better than expect and could rock markets again,.if soo, stocks will rise along with risk appetite, probably yen down and dollar down, not that much against Euro. That's my view |
1:23 | [Comment From anj] hi there. I feel a bit confused as to how to play out the day. We have ECB conference in less then 15 mins....and lets say that they dont anounce any non standard measures...so then EUR = up. Then at 17EST, we have Bank Stress Test Results...and what if they are really bad....will that bring EUR back down as much as it would have taken it up? |
1:24 | Tim Salem: naeem...In the coming Session when the Data is "digested"... the Fiber shouldbe gin to correct...as should the Poun Yen...Watch the 1.3220's/00 Area for Price to be maintained below the Level...and the 148/80's/149.30's in Pound Yen. BemIndful,though, that Pound Yen loves to "Test" Its own IntraDay Levels..so watch for a "Re-Test" of the 150.90's/151.00 Area as well! |
1:25 | Valeria Bednarik: Ani, no need to rush on market now. if you trade long term, wait for the release. at 5 pm east. If you are a short term one, try to close your positions before the stress test, and give market maybe an hour to plan again your position |
1:26 | [Comment From keynes] thanks for answer valeria |
1:26 | [Comment From ceasar] hi, are you bearish or bullish on Euro at current levels and if you had to play it with speach in mind what would be the best strategy? |
1:26 | [Comment From naeem] i mean when usa cut its rate usd is weeker like this will euro be weeker also or not |
1:26 | FXstreet.com: Here you can watch the live ECB speech.... starting soon http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html |
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1:27 | [Comment From UK] how long left until the trichet announcement and how big of an announcement is it expected to be? also what currency pair is it best to be looking at nearer to its announcement time? |
1:27 | Tim Salem: I see naeem... Euro willbe "weaker" of Trichet's Cooemtaryis the Catalyst to do so... the actual Decision Itself is was Priced-In in this case... So the markets is waiting to see if their "Expectations" are On The Mark or not.... |
1:28 | Valeria Bednarik: Ceasar, neither at current levels, not me at least. my best strategy will be to wait 30 minutes till speach is over, and then, look for supp and res levels close to that price, and wait for them. |
1:28 | [Comment From anj] which one of these would make the greatest impact on EUR/USD....ECB or Stress Test Results? |
1:30 | Tim Salem: UK... Personally...I look "outside" of the Pair in question that is directly "affected" in my own Trading Work. So instead of looking "Directly" into the Eyesof the Euro... I may choose the Inverse Correlation of the Swissy... or a Cross such as Euro Yen... A fine and logical way to "Be Involved" in this Trading Manner...but you also have a bit of a "Shield" against Direct Risk. |
1:30 | Valeria Bednarik: Anj, i believe not just these two but also tomorrow NFP in the U.S will have impact in market, but as Tim use to say, most of this reports are NOISE in market.. all together, and asuming they will come in the "same way", they can change trend. |
1:30 | [Comment From essexboy] all hypothetical.... wait and see what happens... why second guess? |
1:31 | Valeria Bednarik: exaclty essexboy! |
1:31 | [Comment From amin] thanks vaeria |
1:31 | [Comment From naeem] u mean to say if it reach to 151.00 area shall i go to short |
1:31 | [Comment From Keynes] thanks Val ! So you think that bear market is over and we had seen the worst already,rite? |
1:31 | [Comment From aigee] where can i see stress test result |
1:32 | [Comment From Shariq] i know we are talking about eur and gbp most , any View on AUSSIE /usd |
1:32 | FXstreet.com: Week Jobless Claims To 635K From 631K |
1:32 | Valeria Bednarik: Probably Keynes, thus we are just bottoming... growth signals must be seen for a couple of months before some real optimism reaches economies |
1:33 | Tim Salem: naeem... Observe what Price does at that Level..if it Holds and develops new Support there...or if it Fails and remains Dynamic Resistance... Allow the Market to lead you....to give you enough Information to define your Criteria.... |
1:33 | Valeria Bednarik: Test results here! at Fxstreet. com news page |
1:33 | [Comment From james] market seems stagnant now.. =) |
1:33 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes James, waiting for Trichet |
1:33 | [Comment From ceasar] thanks... |
1:34 | [Comment From bug] do u have any ideas about eurchf , it will fall again or will be on hes way up ? |
1:34 | Valeria Bednarik: Bug, we already answer that, check above please |
1:34 | Tim Salem: Yes James... as Institutional Entities are wating to Re-Position here... so large Order Flows are Off the Tablefor now..... |
1:34 | [Comment From Shariq] any view on Aussie pls. |
1:36 | Valeria Bednarik: Trichet startded and euro is falling fast! let's see what is he saying |
1:36 | Valeria Bednarik: Trichet is launching quantitative easing! |
1:37 | Valeria Bednarik: that's why euro is falling, yet jumping |
1:37 | Tim Salem: Sure, Shariq!... Aussie has been in a well-defined Symmetrical Channel on the Hourly View...and is due for a Correction. Watch this latest Candle here formore Information... as we may develop into slight Consoldation before a Pullback to the 7470's Area which is a 38.2% Fib Variant from the Weekly 9852 High... a LARGE Macro-Bear Flag there.... |
1:37 | Valeria Bednarik: yen is breaking above 99.60 could reach the 100.00 zone. Euro tested the 1.3280 level. |
1:38 | [Comment From Ken (Spain)] can you hear anything on the live conference right now? I have no sound!! |
1:38 | [Comment From UK] thanks for the answer. Looking at the economic calender, tomorrow there are five big announcements all at the same time, will this be a good trading oppurtuinity and will the affect of these announcements be realy big? |
1:38 | [Comment From anj] Thank you for all your answers Valeria |
1:38 | [Comment From Randers] Hi Val. What about eastern european countries? What are the medium term expectations for EUR/CZK? |
1:38 | Valeria Bednarik: Sorry randers, I don't use to see those currencies! |
1:38 | [Comment From DUKUNFOREX] yeee EURUSD double top 1.3384 |
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1:39 | Valeria Bednarik: let me see dukunforex but tell us where do you see the neck? |
1:40 | Valeria Bednarik: 1.3240 right? that's the nexk line of the double roof break under that level could trigger some more selling pressire there |
1:41 | [Comment From mohamed amin] what is going on with EUR/USD? |
1:41 | Valeria Bednarik: Trichet speaking.. |
1:41 | [Comment From Ahmar] Whats your prediction on the Euro now? |
1:42 | Valeria Bednarik: No predictions till Trichet is over! watch for previous high at 1.3380 |
1:42 | Valeria Bednarik: or recent low break |
1:43 | Tim Salem: Indeed... The large Wicks you see are simply Market "Noise"...1.3340- 1.3380 is still defining Price.... |
1:43 | Valeria Bednarik: Gbp is breaking under 1.5050... |
1:43 | Valeria Bednarik: breaking the 20 SMA and ready to test 1.5000 |
1:43 | [Comment From Niklaus B.] is the GBP due to the strong financials overbought |
1:44 | [Comment From Tarun] hey valeria, i think its everything good news for USD whats nest in eur/usd and gbp/usd ? |
1:46 | Valeria Bednarik: Tarum to jumpy market now, but Gbp breaking here not so good.. and Euro needs to break previous high to regain upside. |
1:46 | [Comment From abraham zeitoun] its seems tht gbp nd eur r running in opp direct -do u think chanse to c .8950 on the eur\gbp today? |
1:46 | Valeria Bednarik: eur gbp needs to break 0.8880. if so yes. |
1:47 | [Comment From tibeurus] why do we getting these large price swings in the eur/usd today? |
1:47 | Valeria Bednarik: Tibeurus, ECB is announcing monetary policies... rates, quantitative easing and such... |
1:47 | Tim Salem: Niklaus...they may play a Role... and very Insightful of you to be looking into Inter-Market Analysis!... As we know...Currencies do not exist in a Vacuum...... also keep in mind tha the GBP will often follow Its own Course... while "digesting" Its own Fundamentals and then sticking with Technicals due to Its inherent Volatility. |
1:48 | [Comment From Guest] looks like it is prevaling for a rise |
1:49 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes and breaking above previous high and breaking above the small double roof we were seeing. |
1:49 | Tim Salem: Now...Fiber is looking towards a potential Triple-Top here on an Hourly View... so let's see if 1.3437/40 can be Acheived.... |
1:49 | Valeria Bednarik: exaclty Tim |
1:50 | [Comment From anj] i dont understand... if they are announcing monetary policies... rates, quantitative easing and such, then why is EUR going up? |
1:50 | Valeria Bednarik: Trichet effect. still nothing defined.. wait and see |
1:50 | [Comment From arfan] val, do u think gbp/jpy can touch 147.40 ? |
1:51 | Tim Salem: Anj... Simply due to how the Markets are reacting" to the Rhetoric moment by moemnt.... |
1:51 | [Comment From rami] hey vlaeria how u doing,,do u expect eur/usd to rise to 1.3500 again today bfore the american news at night |
1:52 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Rami, only if breaks above 1.3440 high. still we have this 1.3385 zone holding the upside. |
1:52 | [Comment From Guest] Is the Trichet speech over? |
1:52 | FXstreet.com: Sorry .. We have a copule of minutes left.. Please ask Valeria and Tim anything related tot he Market!.. Do miss this chance! |
1:52 | Tim Salem: arfan...Tim here...In the Mid-Term...I am with you here.... Pound Yen... and the Yen Crosses in general... are stillnot finished with Risk-Aversion Behavior...sothis may take us, in this case, all the way back to the 145.50's Area of massive Static Support..... |
1:53 | Valeria Bednarik: Not all, probably answer questions |
1:53 | [Comment From anj] Thanks Tim and Val. But b/c of this announcing....should'nt EUR be going down? |
1:53 | [Comment From abraham zeitoun] .888 touche val -so possbl .8940? |
1:54 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi abraham wait next 30 minutes to confirm the movement, and Trichet finishing the questionare. |
1:54 | [Comment From amin] dear val wat way is GPB/USD going right now |
1:55 | Tim Salem: Anj... In a "Normal" market Climate... we would thinkthis would be the case wouldn't we!... But in dealing with Trichet and his "Weight" of Rhetoric over the Euro... his Comments really need to play out and be digested in the markets before we have any realy "Basing Points" tomove forward with.... |
1:55 | Valeria Bednarik: Amin Gbp is fighting with the 1.5050 zone, the 20 SMA in 4 hours charts.. follow it to get clues! if remains under, down! if regains above, up yet for me is down likely now |
1:55 | [Comment From Oreo] Hi Val, do u think the market is way to volitile to be trading at the moment? i want to wait for a clear direction? what do u think? |
1:56 | [Comment From miq-glen] What you think about eur/jpy, i have short position and now -100 pips |
1:56 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes OREO! that's why I always suggest to wait a couple of 15 mnutes candle after is all over |
1:56 | [Comment From arfan] thanks val. your answer is good enough for me. thanks val and tim for to day. |
1:57 | [Comment From anj] Thank you Tim. You guys are very very helpful. |
1:57 | [Comment From amin] thanks alot val nd tim |
1:57 | FXstreet.com: Time is up! Sorry i have to wrap up the event Thank you everyone for joining the event today I have had a great time with you ! |
1:57 | Valeria Bednarik: You are all welcome! Euro break above |
1:58 | [Comment From Oreo] thnxs! |
1:58 | [Comment From xero] thanks |
1:59 | [Comment From denny] thanks Val and Tim |
1:59 | [Comment From abraham zeitoun] tnkx veri much!! |
1:59 | Tim Salem: Sure thing!... Thank you to Everyone for your Insightful Participation!... It is what makes these Events enjoyable and Educational for all Involved! |
1:59 | FXstreet.com: And Thank you ! Valeria and Tim, You both are great! we really appreciate your market comments! Thank you |
1:59 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes! time to go! I have enjoyed very much being here, tks all for participating, as Tim says, is education for us all. Hope to see you soon back |
1:59 | [Comment From Tarun] thanks a lot tim, and valeria |
2:00 | Valeria Bednarik: and remember! watch for technical levels and confirmations after this is over. |
2:00 | [Comment From rami] thx val |
2:00 | [Comment From amin] val i ll be contacting u by mail |
2:00 | Tim Salem: Watch your Key levels moving forward, Everyone for Adherence or Violation... as we move into the U.S. Session... other Large Entities will "Jump Onboard" and run with current Price Action with the additional market Volume. |
2:00 | FXstreet.com: okayy Valeria , please give us a final word |
2:01 | FXstreet.com: Also, Tim please |
2:03 | Valeria Bednarik: Majors are still not defining but seems euro is set to rise, and Gbp to test the 1.5000. Japanese Yen failed to confirm above the 99.60 zone, but I believethings will set and consolidate around actual levels, untill the test stress results. |
2:03 | Tim Salem: Feel free to Post Inquiries on our Blogs as well... and I may be reached at ultramaxgroup@yahoo.com for any other Queries as well ! Also...keep in mind the overall "Muted" Price Action as we head further into the Day, and closer toNon-Farm Payroll Data tomorrow! |
2:04 | FXstreet.com: International Traders Conference 2009 – October 14-16 - Barcelona (Spain) |
2:04 | FXstreet.com: Book your seat before it's too late... This year seats are limited to 60! Don't wait too much! Confirmed speakers so far are James Chen, Valeria Bednarik, Markus Heitkoetter and Rob Booker! More to be confirmed very soon! |
2:04 | Valeria Bednarik: See you! bye!!! have a grat trading day |
2:05 | FXstreet.com: Thank you again Valeria and Tim. and everyone who has joined today.. I ma very happy |
2:05 | [Comment From amin] thanks to u nf fxstreet |
2:06 | Tim Salem: Have a fine Day, Everyone, and watch your Risk Exposure tomorrow! Remember... remaining "Flat" is also a deeply Viable Position! |
2:06 | FXstreet.com: Tomorrow We have NFP live coverage at 12:15 GMT. I hope to see you again! |
2:08 | FXstreet.com: ok.. see you tomorrow.. Have a nice trading day!!!!! |
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