FXstreet.com Live Sessions Archives

Short-Term Support and Resistance Trading with Naked Charts

Expert: James Chen, Chief Technical Analyst at FX Solutions
Moderator: Maud Gilson

Summary:
Learn the methods and techniques of short-term S/R trading in the forex market using just lines (horizontal and diagonal) and price action. Find out how traders successfully read and trade currency price action on a short-term basis without any indicators. Covers entries, exits, psychology, and risk management.

Institutional Trading Strategies: Spotting Reversals

Expert: Andrei Pehar, Sr. Currency Strategist at fxKnight.com
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:

Learn how to use your indicators together with multiple timeframes in order to spot the warning signs of a reversal.  Whether you need to exit early, ahead of your target, or are trying to find the best timing for a counter-trend entry, learning how to recognize these signals, and the sequence they typically occur in, will help you to get the most out of each trade.  Join fund manager and trading coach Andrei Pehar for an interesting look at how to deal with changing market conditions, when things don't go precisely according to plan.
 

Trading Forex Volatility

Expert: James Chen, Chief Technical Analyst at FX Solutions
Moderator: Maud Gilson

Summary:
Discover techniques for trading forex based upon price volatility. Shifts in volatility have long been used by successful traders to capture substantial profits in all financial markets. Learn the tools and methods used for measuring and exploiting volatility changes that can be applied immediately in the forex market.

Trading Break Out's And Other Market Views

Expert: Phil Newton, Developer of Trading Strategies at Trading Strategies.info
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:

Learn how to identify and trade overnight trading ranges. A detailed description of what to do, when to do it and why you should do it. Master some simple rules and spot a regularly repeating pattern day after day.

Conquering Fear and Greed: How to Deal With Emotions When Trading

Expert: Markus Heitkoetter, CEO at Rockwell Trading Inc
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
As day traders, we are confronted with our emotions every single day. You already know that the main emotions connected with day trading are fear and greed. If you want to succeed with day trading, then you MUST learn how to conquer them both, and that's exactly what we'll be talking about in this webinar.

Here's what we'll cover:

- How greed and fear are affecting your trading decisions
- What to do when you become a victim of your emotions and how you can control those emotions
- The number one way you can avoid making irresponsible decisions based on fear and greed
- How to conquer fear and greed
- The six mistakes that most traders are making in the day trading field and how to avoid them.

Non-Farm Payrolls Release Live Coverage

Non-Farm Payrolls release Live Coverage with Nick Nasad

(05/08/2009)

  

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1:12

FXstreet.com:  Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's U.S. NFP Live Coverage will start in 5 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Nick Nasad who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. He will be giving us a direct picture for the market status.

1:13

FXstreet.com:  Nick Nasad is a currency market analyst with CMS Forex for the last 3 years. He closely monitors fundamental releases and reports their results and provides commentary to the company's clients through CMS Forex's interactive economic calendar Forex Capsule and through daily Forex market video recaps. He has also written extensive educational material on using technical analysis in trading Forex.

1:13	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Hello everyone, and thank you fxstreet for having me on again

1:13

FXstreet.com:  I am pelased to announce you that today’s sponsor is CMS Forex. CMS Forex has some of the most competitive Forex trading terms on the market today! Unlike many Forex brokers, CMS Forex allows you to trade both mini (10,000) and standard (100,000) lots under a single account. Open a live account with CMS Forex with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now. CMS Forex also produces expert analysis, market research and daily market news coverage with videos and reports. Browse the following URLs to learn and take profit from their expertise.

1:14	FXstreet.com:  CMS General Research page

1:14	FXstreet.com:  Daily video about the main market news

1:14	FXstreet.com:  Expert Analysis of Today's Market

1:14	FXstreet.com:  Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead

1:15	Nick Nasad - CMS:  We come into today's nonfarm payroll report with currencies showing signs of risk appetite as stocks in Asia and Europe climbed following the release of the US bank stress test info.

1:16	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the implication that banks have to raise more capital, but that the figure was smaller than feared is hleping to push a sense that the worst of the recession may be over for the US, or that it is at least moderating.

1:17	Nick Nasad - CMS:  that is something the jobs report should show as well, with job losses, though still expected to top half a million, should show job destruction slowing.

1:17	FXstreet.com:   Hi Nick ! and Everyone,,, Thank you for joining today the live coverage. i am really happy. Well let's move on... Non Farm payrolls! .. Let me know your opinion on that... Let's vote the polls..

1:17	What do you anticipate the outcome of NFP? Better than expected and bullish for the USD  ( 56% ) Better than expected but bearish for the USD  ( 19% ) Worse than expected and bearish for the USD  ( 13% ) Worse than expected but bullish for the USD  ( 6% ) Not much impact on the USD  ( 6% )

1:18	Nick Nasad - CMS:  as we await the NFP release, please ask me any questions..

1:18	Nick Nasad - CMS:  forecasts are ranging between -580K and -615K for today's release.

1:21

Nick Nasad - CMS:  recently we've seen numbers above -650K the previous two months.. there have been some encouraging signs this week from the labor market in the US in that the ADP employment change figure came in much better than expected and jobless claims have eased off their higher levels. Yesterday the most recent claims data showed a reading 601K which was the lowest level since January

1:21	Nick Nasad - CMS:  sorry, got disconnected..

1:22

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1:23	[Comment From min ] So, if better than expected or as expected, what impact do you expect it to have on eur/usd? thanks

1:23

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1:24	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the EUR/USD is showing risk appetite at the moment and traders responded well to the ECB's interest rate decision from yesterday

1:25

Nick Nasad - CMS:  Policy makers cut rates and announced a plan to spend EUR60 billion in order to ease credit markets. Though that may not have amounted to the quantitative easing some were looking for, it did show that the ECB is trying to avoid the inflationary risks associated with quantitative easing. This was seen helping provide the euro with support.

1:26	Nick Nasad - CMS:  a better than expected figure then should continue to boost risk appetite and help the pair reach higher, to 1.35..

1:26	[Comment From Naeem] i have sold euro/usd yesterday at 1.3306 do u have any comment on it

1:27	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the EUR/USD looks to be forming an upwars sloping channel, with that level very close to the bottom support level. if you connect the lows from this week and last week, and project a parallel trendline with this week's highs, you can see we have been testing these levels

1:27	FXstreet.com:  CMS Forex, today’s Sponsor also produces expert analysis, market research and daily market news coverage with videos and reports. Browse the following URLs to learn and take profit from their expertise.

1:27	FXstreet.com:  CMS General Research page

1:27	FXstreet.com:  Daily video about the main market news

1:28	FXstreet.com:  Expert Analysis of Today's Market

1:28	[Comment From arfan] hi nick, what happen to gbp/usd if nfp worse than expected?

1:28	FXstreet.com:  Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead

1:28	[Comment From Guest] Good Morning Nicky...What is your thought on Cable/Dollar?

1:28	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the Pound unlike the Euro, fell in the wake of its anouncement yesterday that it will increase quantitative easing measures by anouther 50 billion pounds.

1:29	FXstreet.com:  Preview : Change in Nonfarm Payroll: -600K v -663K prior (Note the range of estimate are from -360K to -750K)- Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: -155K v -161K prior

1:29	Nick Nasad - CMS:  however after testing support near 1.4950 we have seen a rally overnight. a better than expected release should push the pair back to retest its high from yesterday.

1:30	Nick Nasad - CMS:  ok, so that news falls in line with expectations, and should give traders and those watching fundamentals the sense that the US economy's recession is moderating.

1:30	FXstreet.com:  NFP -539k

1:31	FXstreet.com:  Unemplyment rate is 8.9%

1:31	Nick Nasad - CMS:  lets see if we have a move in favor of the greenback (the release showing a stronger economy) or if risk appetite will win out and higher yielders will rally.

1:32	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the knee jerk reaction is a gain in the greenback

1:32	Nick Nasad - CMS:  especially the EUR/USD.. this is likely a knee jerk response to the better figure as it shows the US economy is seeing its pace of job destruction easing

1:33	Nick Nasad - CMS:  from a risk appetite standpoint though, the greenback should not gain too much as its allure lies during times of risk aversion..

1:33	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the initial EUR/USD losses are already being pared,

1:34	Nick Nasad - CMS:  now we have set new intra-day highs on eur/usd and gbp/usd

1:34	Nick Nasad - CMS:  traders are all betting in the same direction

1:34	FXstreet.com:  NFP- 539K . unemployment rate is 8.9%.

1:34	Nick Nasad - CMS:  this could be a strong response as the news is very risk appetite friendly

1:34	[Comment From Tarun] hey nick will good news for USD make eur/usd to go high ?

1:35	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we have already hit a new high, and have broken a resistance level i had for my upward sloping channel.

1:35	[Comment From Naeem] what will be th expected impact on usd if we have good nfp

1:35	[Comment From dawn] risk appetite will rise..

1:35	[Comment From Mungo] Hi Nick. Australian unemployment figures were better than expected and consumers are buying/spending up in the retail sector....in Australia at least. The world will be watching tonight= volatility for sure

1:36	Nick Nasad - CMS:  commodity currencies have been strong of late, and the Aussie and Loonie are climbing now as well.

1:36	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we are testing 1.35 now with EUR/USD. this would be my first profit target, but seems like we will be going higher than that today

1:37	[Comment From michael] eur$ broken 1.3500 where do you think its heading?

1:38	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we are seeing some profit taking at that level, a pause in our initial rally.. the logical point of resistance, if we move higher today is 1.3550

1:38	[Comment From Mungo] Big resitance at 1.3500 Euro

1:38	[Comment From min] Any comments on Eur/Yen Nick? Thanks

1:39	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the EUR/JPY is running up against its own resistance from around April 12th. we seem to be in a second leg of a rally that started near 125, we retraced back to teh 130 level this week, and now we are breaking new ground.

1:40	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the response to the NFP is being contained by the 133.80 level, so this second leg may be a bit slower than what we saw last week..

1:41	[Comment From Guest] whY a weak reaction in $/yen?? Should be looking at the 100 mark after a positive nfp?

1:41	Nick Nasad - CMS:  since the greenback is feeling pressured in other currency pairs that seems to be extending to the usd/jpy.

1:42	[Comment From dingwa] Hi Nick, what are your reasonings for your profit target to be 1.35?

1:42	Nick Nasad - CMS:  im mainly looking at resistance from the beginning of April,.. theres one at teh 1.35 level, and then and another slighlty higher at 1.3580

1:44	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the initial enthusiasm has quieted down somewhat,

1:44	[Comment From min] What target do you see for eur/yen? thanks

1:46	Nick Nasad - CMS:  currently we seem to be contained within the 134 level.. but overall, risk sentiment is pointing towards optimism, which should help carry trade.. if we look at our rally from April 28th to May 4th.. it amounted to about 780 pips.

1:47

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1:47	Nick Nasad - CMS:  if we project that same amount from our 130 low, we could be looking at a test of 138,.. however there is strong visual resistance near 137.25..

1:47	Nick Nasad - CMS:  these are more medium term projections, and we would have to see a continuation of risk appetite in the following weeks.

1:48	[Comment From Naeem] what do u think about aud/usd

1:49

Nick Nasad - CMS:  the initial reaction to the NFP release, though pointing toward risk appetite, has not caused the kind of volatility it could have.. i mean, theres only so much risk appetite from seeing the US economy shed 530K jobs. so, we pushed up to new intra-day highs, but the market did not become exuberant over the news.

1:49

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1:50	Nick Nasad - CMS:  of course there's still alot of trading to be done before the week closes out, but looks like traders may be waiting to see how US equities fare

1:50	[Comment From Armin] Why do you think Eur/Usd still dropping

1:51	Nick Nasad - CMS:  there is a bout of profit taking at the 1.35 level in the EUR/USD which has capped the greenback's losses for now, and we seems to be retracing part of our rise already..

1:52	[Comment From ifxworld] hey Nick! where do you see USD/JPY heading? With yen being favoured as save heaven and risk appetite on the increase, would you say a further rise is likely in the pair?

1:52	FXstreet.com:  International Traders Conference 2009 – October 14-16 - Barcelona (Spain)

1:53	FXstreet.com:  Book your seat before it's too late... This year seats are limited to 60! Don't wait too much! Confirmed speakers so far are James Chen, Valeria Bednarik, Markus Heitkoetter and Rob Booker! More to be confirmed very soon!

1:54

Nick Nasad - CMS:  thats good analysis. if risk sentiment remains to be positive, the pair should see an increase. However, we are fighting a bit of resistance to break above 99.50, so wait for a break there before initiating a long position.. unless we have a move downward that you feel is a good retracement and entry opportunity.. We were as high as 101.40 in April, so theres room for the pair to rise..

1:54	[Comment From eric] so if equities are bullish then it will back the greenback?

1:55	Nick Nasad - CMS:  its slightly counter intuitive, but since the greenback has been a destination for safe haven, higher equities actually diminish the demand for the dollar for that purpose. so, higher equities will actualyl support higher yielders (Euro, Pound, Aussie)

1:56	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the USD/JPY just bounced off a short term line of support

1:56	[Comment From Guest] GBP/USD ?

1:57	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Though we saw an initial rally, we have stalled out in the pair, and we have remained withing the price range from yesterday.

1:58	Nick Nasad - CMS:  a test of 1.5150 is possible, but the Pound weakness from yesterday could limit any further gains from the Pound.

1:59	[Comment From HARI] What about EUR/USD today?

1:59	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we are moving back up to retest our high that we set following the NFP release

2:01	Nick Nasad - CMS:  but compared to the initial response we saw, the current movement is quite labored.

2:01	[Comment From Stu] Nick, is there a demo video of your company's chart recognition software?

2:01	Nick Nasad - CMS:  http://www.cmsfx.com/en/trading-software/vt-trader-features/pattern-recognition-technology/

2:01	[Comment From min] market opens in half an hour...do you see dow and commodities affecting eur/usd? thanks

2:02	Nick Nasad - CMS:  seems that we are waiting for further impetus on where to go next. a positive response from Wall Street could be that catalyst.

2:03	[Comment From min] Catalyst for a move up or down on eur/usd?

2:04	Nick Nasad - CMS:  a catalyst for a move up if we see strong stock increases

2:04	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we are at 1.35 again with EUR/USD

2:05	[Comment From cindy] Nick, what's your thoughts on usd/cad....are we in for a correction?

2:06	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the Loonie has been a very good performer the last two months as global equities have rallied and oil prices have increased

2:06	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we are now fast approaching an important support level near 1.15 (Nov. 5th low)

2:07	Nick Nasad - CMS:  a strong downmove, plus critical support should be two signs that we could have a correction.. but the employment data from Canada was a big surprise today, and with oil gaining I wouldnt bet against the Loonie at this point.

2:08	[Comment From min] Thanks Nick...I just want to say I really enjoy your analysis :)

2:08	[Comment From Mehrius] EUR/USD had a hard time breaking the channel 22nd 28th april lows and highs from 28th and 5th of may

2:09	Nick Nasad - CMS:  yes, we rose above the resistance level, but it did not lead to a breakout..

2:10	[Comment From Mr. CAD] The EURGBP has gone up despite the charts pointing it downwards. Has it changed course Nick

2:10	Nick Nasad - CMS:  that is a very good analysis, we broke a downward sloping resistance level, and this week, especially yesterday, showed a very big move towards Euro strength compared to the Pound.

2:12	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we have also now bounced up off support if we connect our lows from APril 15th and April 22nd in the pair

2:13	[Comment From eric] thanks Nick, great Job as always

2:13	[Comment From arfan] how about gbp/jpy nick, any comment of that pair ?

2:14	FXstreet.com:  Sorry ,,, We have just 5 minutes left.... Please ask Nick anything releated to the market... Do not miss chances!

2:14

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2:15	Nick Nasad - CMS:  compared to the rally from April 28th to May 5th we seem to be showing a bit of a rounded top reversal..

2:16	[Comment From HARI] could u please tell me the possible low and high for EUR/USD and GBP/USD?

2:17	Nick Nasad - CMS:  for today, a strong rise in equities could push the euro higher, with resistance at 1.3570..

2:17	[Comment From Phil] Do you see a correction on the EURUSD

2:17	Nick Nasad - CMS:  but, since its Friday, profit taking may limit any increase.

2:18	[Comment From amin] hi nick wat u fink abt GBP/USD right now wud it touch 1.5150

2:18	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the Pound is actually losing ground already following our test of 1.5123,. we look to be retesting the 1.5050 level as support first..

2:18	FXstreet.com:   Time is up... Sorry .... I have to wrap up the live session.

2:19	Nick Nasad - CMS:  maybe its just the end of this week, but the Pound lost some of its allure..

2:19	Nick Nasad - CMS:  ok everyone, thank you so much for your questions and comments

2:19	Nick Nasad - CMS:  i tried my best to answer as many as I could.

2:20	Nick Nasad - CMS:  today's nonfarm reinforces the perception that teh recession in the US is moderating and has boosted risk appetite.

2:20	FXstreet.com:  Thank you everyone for joining the live coverage today. I have had a great time with you.

2:20	[Comment From amin] thanks nick

2:20	[Comment From min] thanks nick

2:21	[Comment From Armin] And me, it's a good insight when you can see the flow of ideas from a pro

2:21	FXstreet.com:  Thank you Nick for the great analytical comments on the market!.... We really appreciate that!.. thank you very much

2:21	Nick Nasad - CMS:  thank you for the kind words everyone

2:21	[Comment From marek] thanks Nick

2:21	[Comment From arfan] thanks nick :-)

2:22	Nick Nasad - CMS:  allright everyone, watch the equities markets as that will be the main driver left in today's action.

2:22	Nick Nasad - CMS:  and I will see everyone next time.

2:22	Nick Nasad - CMS:  please do check out our site, http://www.cmsfx.com/

2:22	Nick Nasad - CMS:  and test out our platform VT Trader with a demo account..

2:23	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Also subscribe to our daily video RSS feed: http://www.cmsfx.com/rss/daily-videos.xml

2:23	Nick Nasad - CMS:  we provide you with a look at the fundamental and technical highlights from each session

2:24	Nick Nasad - CMS:  ok, and with that, i wish everyone good success in their trading, and have a great weekend!

2:24	FXstreet.com:  Okay, everybone,,, Thank you for coming... i hope to see all of you guys in the next live coverage... Bye for now! Have a nice weekend... Adios

2:24	FXstreet.com:  I would like to specially thank CMS Forex, today’s sponsor, for their support. Open a live account with CMS with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now. Use the following links to follow up about today’s main market news.

2:24	FXstreet.com:  CMS General Research page

2:24	FXstreet.com:  Daily video about the main market news

2:24	FXstreet.com:  Expert Analysis of Today's Market

2:24	FXstreet.com:  Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead

2:25	[Comment From Guest ] thanks

2:25	[Comment From Guest ] thanks

2:25	[Comment From Guest ] thanks

2:25	[Comment From Guest ] thanks!!

2:28

BoE and ECB Live Coverage

BoE and ECB Interest Rates decission Live Coverage with Valeria Bednarik

(05/07/2009)

  

Close

11:44

FXstreet.com:  Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's BoE and ECB Interest Rates Decisions Live Coverage will start in 10 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Valeria Bednarik who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. She will be giving us a direct picture fo the market status.

11:44

FXstreet.com:  Valeria Bednarik has been an active Forex trader for the last 4 years, specializing in the International Foreign Exchange Market. She also graduates in the Universidad Catolica del Salvador, in Argentina, as a Public Account, specializing in financials and cost managements. She currently manages an important clients portfolio for IFX Markets, Boston and is senior trader manager at Molfx-Management; besides she works training new traders with Trader College LLC specializing in technical analysis, for the English speaking community.

11:45

FXstreet.com:  Valeria will be one of the speakers at the FXstreet.com International Traders Conference in October 2009 Barcelona.

11:46

FXstreet.com:  International Traders Conference 2009 – October 14-16 - Barcelona (Spain)

11:46

FXstreet.com:  I am pelased to announce you that today’s sponsor is CMS Forex. CMS Forex has some of the most competitive Forex trading terms on the market today! Unlike many Forex brokers, CMS Forex allows you to trade both mini (10,000) and standard (100,000) lots under a single account. Open a live account with CMS Forex with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now. CMS Forex also produces expert analysis, market research and daily market news coverage with videos and reports. Browse the following URLs to learn and take profit from their expertise.

11:46

FXstreet.com:  CMS General Research page

11:46

FXstreet.com:  Daily video about the main market news

11:46

FXstreet.com:  Expert Analysis of Today's Market

11:46

FXstreet.com:  Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead

11:49

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi everybody and welcome to this live coverage!

11:49

FXstreet.com:  Please take a look at Valeria's blog where you can find rich market info.

11:49

FXstreet.com:  The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

11:50

FXstreet.com:  okay everyone,, while waiting for Valeria,, Let's vote the polls!

11:50

Will the BoE cut the bench mark interest rate? Yes, the BoE will cut it by 25bps to 0.25%.  ( 0% ) Yes the BoE will cut it by 50bps to Zero.  ( 0% ) No, the BoE will rather hold the ongoing rate.  ( 78% ) No, the BoE will rather hike it by 25bps.  ( 11% ) No, the BoE will rather hike it by 50bps.  ( 11% )

11:50

Valeria Bednarik:  In acouple of minutes, we will be starting with BOE decision.

11:51

[Comment From nour] welcome everyone

11:51

[Comment From Aram] Hi, Valeria....... If BOE leave IR in 0.5% does it mean good for Cable and Bullish for it first res is 1.5300?

11:51

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi Aram! I expect BOE to leave rates unchanged yes, and probably be good for Gbp

11:52

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11:53

Valeria Bednarik:   I believe the pair has nice room to go, once 1.5110 zone has been broke. Taje a look at daily charts and see the strong level we have there. No matter what happens today, if the pair remains above that level, longer term perspective remains pretty bullish for me

11:54

[Comment From fx] hi everybody

11:54

[Comment From fx] hi, would like to know after BOE has announce, where do u think the GBP/JPY pair will go

11:54

Valeria Bednarik:  let me see the chart

11:54

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11:55

Valeria Bednarik:  151.50 that's the first target zone to the upside. If pair breaks above that, and close day above it, I expect the 154.00 in a couple of days

11:56

Valeria Bednarik:  to the downside, 145.50 is also a reasonable zone, if Gbp falls. I don't "marry" any perspective, you know? rather consider supp and res, and once one broken go for it!

11:56

[Comment From wijaya] hi

11:56

[Comment From DUKUNFOREX] What do you think with EURUSD ?

11:57

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi Duku, I think ECB will cut rates, yet, as usual, market will probably wait for Trichet's words later: if he announce any credit easing, non convencioanl messure, that seems unlikely, but posible,

11:58

Valeria Bednarik:  euro could tumble.. But we will have to wait and see

11:58

[Comment From Ahmar] Where do you see the pound topping?

11:58

Valeria Bednarik:  1.5280/1.5310

11:58

[Comment From rim] do you think it may goup thee really ? since the crisis already xist

11:59

Valeria Bednarik:  Sorry Rim don't understand what you mean... goup thee really? remember english is not my language.. give me a hand here.. tks!

11:59

[Comment From cesar] Hi Valeria: how about the GBP / USD. How many points do you think it will go up

12:00

FXstreet.com:  BoE has decided to hold the benchmark rates at 0.50%!

12:00

Valeria Bednarik:  Well cesar, i guess already answer that above. check please

12:00

Valeria Bednarik:  surprise!

12:00

FXstreet.com:  BoE has decided to hold the benchmark rates unchanged at 0.50%!

12:01

Valeria Bednarik:  breaking quiclky under the 1.5110 ! intermediate support around 1.5050

12:01

[Comment From shariq] hello everyone !

12:01

[Comment From mohamed amin] will the EURO be weakened more than this?

12:02

Valeria Bednarik:  For euro, we will have to wait a bit, Mohamed!

12:03

FXstreet.com:  hi every one! today we have a sepcial guest. CVJ! Tim Salem.

12:03

Valeria Bednarik:  Togheter with rates, BOE is making some announcements, and maybe there we have the clue of the fall, they expect CPI to continue dropping!

12:03

FXstreet.com:  Tim Salem ( CVJ ) is the Owner/CEO of UltraMax Group, LLC; and a private retail Trader for himself and others. He is currently embarking on the Commodity Trading Advisor track (CTA).

12:04

FXstreet.com:  He has been an FXStreet Premium Member since it's inception, and credits the majority of his successful learning curve since early 2005 to the Professional Presenters and Content learned there.

12:04

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi Tim! welcome, glad you join us!

12:04

[Comment From shariq] GBP/Jpy looks bullish but depends on what happens

12:04

FXstreet.com:  Forex Trading Today by Tim Salem (CVJ)

12:04

[Comment From james] true

12:04

[Comment From mohamed amin] thnx valeria

12:04

[Comment From mohamed amin] do u have any pre-thoughts for it's trend?

12:05

Valeria Bednarik:  If pair manages to recoup 1.5115/20 zone, as posted earlier, bullish trend will remain intact for me in the term

12:05

Valeria Bednarik:  Only clear break under 1.5000 can change that

12:05

[Comment From arfan] looks like gbp/jpy fail to go up?

12:05

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12:06

[Comment From Tim Salem (CVJ)] Hi Val!...Great to be with again !

12:07

[Comment From Ahmar] additional QE...now what do you predict?

12:07

Valeria Bednarik:  Arfan! Tim is an expert on that pair! he will take your question! give him one sec to conect

12:07

[Comment From Tim Salem (CVJ)] HI Shariq!... Pound Yen does look slightly Bullish in the Immediate-Term... although with recent Consolidation we have slightly Neutral Bias , and if 148.80's Dynamic Support willnot hold...then Bearish Sentiment returns...

12:08

Valeria Bednarik:  Ahmar, guess from here we are heading to the 1.5000 zone. let's see if holds.

12:08

[Comment From saji] can u tel me wats the support level of eur/usd.

12:09

Valeria Bednarik:  yes Saji 1.3220 zone for me is the point to beat to the downside . 1.3440 to the upside. Closer ones, we will look 10 minutes before rates ok?

12:09

[Comment From keepitreal] raising rates equals strong currency.. i guess they were expecting rates to raise.

12:10

Valeria Bednarik:  I guess we wont see any rate rise nowhere this year Keepitreal. :)

12:10

[Comment From yasir kidwai] Hi valeria what you think about pound

12:10

[Comment From Tarun] hi valeria, if it breaks 1.5000 what its next point to reach ?

12:10

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12:11

Valeria Bednarik:  bit far for today, but 1.4920 with an intemediate support at 1.4960 zone

12:11

[Comment From DAVID] Good morning guys. What do you think about USDCAD? are we finnally seen a retracement up to the 1.20???

12:11

FXstreet.com:  okay while waiting for the ECB decision,,, let me know your opinion! let's vote the vole!

12:11

Will the ECB low the bench mark interest rate? Yes, the ECB will cut it by 25bps  ( 63% ) Yes, the ECB will cut it by 50bps  ( 6% ) Yes, on an aggressive cut it by moe than 75bps.  ( 3% ) No, the ECB will rather hold the ongoing rate.  ( 25% ) No, the ECB will rather hike it by 25bps  ( 0% ) No, the ECB will rather hike it by 50bps  ( 3% )

12:12

[Comment From Tim Salem (CVJ)] keepitreal...Not neccessarily... Quantitative Easing places heavy Risk on CentralBank Policy...so alot of the "Normal" Relationships lke that we have are not in Play here... Always be Mindful of Institutional Re-Positioning prior to Data Points.... as we say, The Big Boys will use Block Orders for their own benefit and cause Price fluctuations when needed.

12:12

[Comment From Dr.Sivaraman] HiVal and CVJ - a typical false rise before data and then drop after unchanged interest rate decision - when ttraders turn bearish GBP is expected to rise again - just a comment

12:13

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi Dr. Sivaraman! tks for being here! and for your ideas!

12:13

[Comment From Tim Salem (CVJ)] Indeed, Dr. S!... Welcome and thanks for joining us!...Great to see you again!

12:14

[Comment From Evens] Why does holding on rates cause the gbp to drop?

12:14

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi David! I don't see Cad ready to retrace yet, less with oil rising fast! Tim what do you think?

12:15

[Comment From arfan] thanks tim :)

12:16

Valeria Bednarik:   they don't only hold rates Evens, they also announce more quantitative easing guess the answer is there

12:16

[Comment From Tarun] hello sivaraman sir, what can i expect at the end of eur session in eur/usd and gbp/usd ? will they rise or drop ? and please let me know the changes in US session

12:16

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12:16

Valeria Bednarik:  Tarum! I don't know if he is still around, yet if he is, I will gladly publish hos answer

12:16

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12:16

[Comment From ifxworld] where do you see Yen crosses heading? With risk sentiment increasing, USD on the bearish side, Crude heading north.. a sign for yen to loose strength?

12:17

[Comment From Dr.Sivaraman] Hi tarun - I am not the host here to reply - I have given in my blog the answer already

12:18

[Comment From yasir kidwai] valeria u think that gold is going to touch 945

12:18

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12:18

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12:18

Valeria Bednarik:  Ifxworld I see Yen waking yes, take a look at USD JPY... and the strong level around 99.60 zone. Clear break above it, could trigger some more yen fast selling.

12:18

[Comment From Aram] if Cable can not break 1.5000 will it resume bullish trend or consolidatte?

12:19

Tim Salem:  Hi yasir... Gold willAppreciated a bit more as the $950's is largely the Mean here... although $1000 may be slightly our of reach for now in the Immediate-Term. Another Correction is needed for additional Long-Builds... asthere maybe COMEX Options Barriers and such at $1000 with heavy Defenders to holdthe Area....

12:20

Valeria Bednarik:   Hi Aram, i believe above 1.5115 zone cable will resume the uptren

12:20

[Comment From Dr.Sivaraman] Thanks Val- after ECB announces the rate a quick drop is expected in EURO and GBP and then rise from 12:40-13:00 GMT

12:20

[Comment From Tarun] yeah sure sir, thanks alot am very regular to your blog posts .

12:20

[Comment From Tarun] valeria can you please tell the support and resistance levels in eur/usd and gbp/usd

12:20

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12:21

FXstreet.com:  Forex Trading Today by Tim Salem (CVJ)

12:22

[Comment From yasir kidwai] thanks tim

12:22

FXstreet.com:  The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

12:23

Tim Salem:  Tarun...Eurois Range-Bound at 1.3245 Support through 1.3373 Resistance from an Hourly View... Cable is the 1.50 Handle to 1.5164 from an IntraDay View...also largely Range-Bound there prior tothe Decision....

12:23

[Comment From ifxworld] AUD and NZD crosses made significant gains after better than expected unemployment data.. do you see these pairs heading higher in the short - med term?

12:24

Valeria Bednarik:   AHH that's another for Mr CVJ he is an expert there!

12:24

[Comment From Tarun] thanks alot tim

12:25

FXstreet.com:  Forex Trading Today by Tim Salem (CVJ)

12:25

Valeria Bednarik:  Tarum, I agree with Tim.. about those levels!

12:25

FXstreet.com:  The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

12:25

Tim Salem:  ifx... I do in the Near-Term... but we know The Yen Crosses, don't We! ...so Corrective Behavior is never far from View!... Fibonacci's and Round Numbers are deeply effective on the Pacific Crosses, so check your Levels there for possible Corrective Areas.....

12:26

[Comment From arben] the ECB will cut it by 25 bps and euro will strength againts US, GBP

12:27

Valeria Bednarik:   Arben I believe market attention will be more in the so so many boring, repeat, speculation on "non conventional measures". As i said before, seems hard to see such announcement, but posible.

12:27

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12:28

[Comment From Tarun] am very much thankful valeria and tim . thanks alot

12:28

[Comment From eli] Why would the Euro Strength ?

12:29

Tim Salem:  Certainly Our Pleasure, Tarun!... Keep them coming, Everyone!...The Interaction is what makes this Successful for All!.....

12:30

[Comment From uli] eur Minimum Bid Rate any idea??

12:31

Valeria Bednarik:   Uli, in 1 minute we will now!

12:31

Valeria Bednarik:  sorry 15 minutes!

12:31

[Comment From r] euro

12:31

Tim Salem:  The Euro may strengthen, Eli, simply due to any "attrached" Statement or Rhetoric that may follow with the Decision..also... from Order Flow... INstitutional Entities will pullout out of the market for Short-Covering...allow Price to Rise... to Re-Position for new Shorts as well.

12:31

[Comment From hero] if the ECB leaves the rate at 1.25 what would happen?

12:32

[Comment From eli] Any view on the cable ?

12:32

Valeria Bednarik:  Eli, read above.. we have posted Gbp views.. break under 1.5050 to 1.5000 above 1.5115 again up

12:33

[Comment From yasir kidwai] thanks a lot Tim and Valeria I really appreciate

12:33

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12:33

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12:34

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi Hero! i believe euro is under pressure, but if they leave unchange, there are chances to see it strenghten

12:34

Tim Salem:  Cable, Eli may slightly fall if they Hold Rates... and again...due to InstitutionalRe-Positioning from the 1.500 Handle Area.....then they will look to regain Buying Opportunities towards the 1.5100 Area....

12:34

[Comment From Guest] if the ECB leaves the rate at 1.25 what would happen?

12:34

[Comment From Pepa] HI everbody

12:35

Valeria Bednarik:  Be patient please with questions, we are two answering, and hundreds of you asking! gave us ome time ok? TKSSS

12:35

Valeria Bednarik:  but KEEP ASKING, we love to answer all.

12:35

Tim Salem:  Always try to remember a General Principle... Price will always eventually "Gravitate" to where it has been before... the Central Line of Tendency...so S?R Areas we see now...willcome backinto View down the Road.....

12:36

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12:36

[Comment From dana] if the ecb cut the rate .25 what would happen

12:38

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi Dana, as commented earlier, market is already expecting such cut, don't expect much action there, but later Trichet will be the clue

12:38

Valeria Bednarik:  Break under 1.3280 could send the pair close to 1.3220/40 zone. Above 1.3345, up

12:38

[Comment From dana] thanks bednarik

12:39

Valeria Bednarik:  You re welcome!

12:39

[Comment From agapeo] Hello Valeria and Tim, thanks for covering today. Is there any chance ecb will cut 50 bp on your opinion, for futures price this?

12:39

Valeria Bednarik:  Gpb continues aproacching to 1.5050 level. We have the 20 SMA there

12:40

FXstreet.com:  The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

12:40

Valeria Bednarik:  in 4 hours charts! Gbp usually respects it as dynamic supp or ress level, let see today!

12:40

FXstreet.com:  Forex Trading Today by Tim Salem (CVJ)

12:40

[Comment From guest] 0.25 is price on market so will be range on eur/usd i think

12:40

Tim Salem:  Indeed...Trichet's Rhetoric at the Press Conference willbe more crucial than ever!... As nothing said about future Rate Hikes will be Key to listen for....

12:41

Valeria Bednarik:  exactly Tim! tks for reminding us that!

12:41

[Comment From Guest] hi, if pound manage to stay above 15050 can it go back to 15110

12:41

Valeria Bednarik:  that's the point Guest yes!

12:41

[Comment From luca] hi

12:41

[Comment From Abz] how do you think the data coming out of the US around the same time will effect price action on EUR/USD?

12:42

Tim Salem:  Yes...as Trichet is still sticing with largely Inflationary Views.. and is not reallyin favor of the "Global Quantitative Easing" Party.... :-)

12:42

Valeria Bednarik:  Employment data could yes, affect a bit Abz, as we have Non Farm Payrolls tomorrow! any employment tip will be carefully consider today

12:42

[Comment From skd32566] you guys are great...thanks for your knowledge, time and efforts!!

12:42

Valeria Bednarik:  Really tks for that SKD!

12:43

Valeria Bednarik:  3 minutes to go

12:43

Tim Salem:  Abz...it may have a slight effect... although usually with "Fundamnetal" consideration s like this... The deepest Even with "Anticipation" with take Precedence.

12:44

[Comment From dimitris] what's your opinion about today and after that about the trend in general ?

12:44

Tim Salem:  Valis straight-on here...Overallin my Larger MacroViews... Range-Bound Activity is still Valid leading into NFP... ( for those of you who know me and my Weekly and Monthly Views... )

12:45

Valeria Bednarik:  For me, Gpb bullish, Euro bearish! Tim what do you think?

12:45

FXstreet.com:  ECB has decided to cut the bench mark rates by 25 bps to 1.00%

12:46

Valeria Bednarik:  Ok, what market was expecting, probably priced in.. let's see how things develop,

12:46

FXstreet.com:  ECB has decided to cut the bench mark rates by 25 bps to 1.00%

12:46

Tim Salem:  Dmitir...please be more specific...Which Macro-Trends are you referring to?... Fiber and Cable?... Yes...in the Immediate-Term I am in agreement with Val...since both Decisions are largely "Priced-In"... it is Trichet's Rhetoric that will have more Momentum here...than the BoE's Position with the Pound.

12:46

Valeria Bednarik:  Correct me if i'm weong, that's an historical low there right?

12:46

[Comment From mohamed amin] i begin to worry about the EUR/USD !!!!!!!!

12:47

Valeria Bednarik:  wrong sorry... je

12:47

[Comment From Guest] So if GBP/Usd bullish and EURO/Usd bearish .. Euro/Gbp must be drop is it?

12:47

Valeria Bednarik:  Yes, Guest, is a long term perspective.. and Gbp shoudl regain 1.51 zone...to confirm but yes!

12:48

[Comment From agapeo] They cut lending rate 50 bp to 1.75 btw

12:48

Valeria Bednarik:  Fist euro spike is bullish, let's see if breaks the 1.3345 zone,

12:48

[Comment From Vincent] time to sell my aud...?

12:49

Valeria Bednarik:  vincent, if you are profiting, of course!

12:49

Tim Salem:  Yes, Val...as we may seea push to 1.3370's as well...for Re-Positioning for the Institutional Flow with attractive Pricing for Shorts....

12:50

[Comment From Tarun] what about gbp/usd and gbp/jpy ? no much volatility in them as seen in eur/usd why ?

12:50

[Comment From james] false spike on eur yet again

12:51

FXstreet.com:  Trichet speech is scheduled at 12:30 GMT (40 minutes to go)

12:52

Tim Salem:  Tarun... in it's simplest Form... With all of the Appreciation Cable and Pound Yen have seen in the last Session... the "degree" of the Interest Rate Decision becomes a bit "Muted" and "Less-Important", if you will... for Price.

12:52

Valeria Bednarik:   James, first spike is just that, first spike... nothing really to define a trend or so.. but break above previous level, and tending up

12:53

Valeria Bednarik:  I rather wait for confirmations you know? not trading at this particular moment,

12:53

[Comment From guest] how long do u think eur/usd will carry on rising?

12:54

Valeria Bednarik:  Guest, let me answer after Trichet! but honestly, not so much, unless clear break above 1.3440

12:54

[Comment From Rob] Eur/GBP should be in a down trend if it holds below 0.8880. Do you think this resistance still stands?

12:54

Tim Salem:  Indeed... Val is correct here...We want allof this "Noise" to work Its way through... as then you will have more "Quality Information" to Plan your potential Trades with...

12:54

Valeria Bednarik:  Gbp 1.5050 hold, and price is above to regain the upside.

12:55

Valeria Bednarik:   Exactly CVJ, that's the point!

12:55

FXstreet.com:  Forex Trading Today by Tim Salem (CVJ)

12:55

FXstreet.com:  The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

12:56

[Comment From Rob] where do you see the resistance in EUR?GBP?

12:56

Valeria Bednarik:  Rob, eur/gpb should hold under that zone yes, to remain bearish. Resistances for other two are already postead, read a bit up! tks.

12:56

[Comment From Tarun] eur/usd broke 1.3345 whats next target for it valeria ?

12:56

[Comment From Dusan] Good afteroon Valeria,

12:57

Tim Salem:  Rob... for the Immediate-Term... you are correct here... as Euro Pound may simply Consolidate under the .8880's Resistance..It may attempt a Break..but we have a well-defined Range of .8665 - 8880 for It to work in....

12:57

Valeria Bednarik:  Tarum the 1.3370 zone mentioned by Tim, 1.3400 and 1.3440

12:57

[Comment From amin] hi every one

12:57

[Comment From james] thanks for the insight valeria!

12:57

[Comment From Aram] How much is the ideal profit from forex per month?

12:58

Tim Salem:  Rob... even a "tighter" Range of 8740 to 8880 is Valid there as well for you!.....

12:58

Valeria Bednarik:  Aram, write to us, in our blogs and we will gladly help you with that

12:58

[Comment From Dusan] Good afternoon Valeria. What do you personally think - Will €/$ go up towards 1,35 or down towards 1,30 after Trichet speech?

12:58

[Comment From Guest] do you think it will go back to 15050 again? what is the next support?

12:59

Valeria Bednarik:   Hi Dursan will depend on the announcement. If ECB opens doors for furhter cuts, or announce other messures, 1,30. If don't 1.35

1:01	Valeria Bednarik:  quite simpe exposed, yet, not that simple in the facts, maybe i am answering short and quick to answer all.. and Europe situation deserves a full explanation. But well, i will try to made it on the blog later today, after the rates are over ok?

1:01	[Comment From Tarun] valeria how this will effect USD/JPY ? will bullish gbp/usd make usd/jpy bearish ??

1:01	Tim Salem:  Guest...it will surely depend on Trichet's Rhetoric looking into any potential Rate Hikes in the future... and from purely a Technical sense.. 1.500 is a "Deep Magnet" for the Pound due to Options Barriers on the other side now... which may pull Price back...

1:01	[Comment From oxgn] I think that 1.3373 zone will not be broken until the speech.

1:01	FXstreet.com:  Forex Trading Today by Tim Salem (CVJ)

1:01	[Comment From miq-glen] ECB cut the rate but why EUR bullish

1:01	FXstreet.com:  The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

1:02	Tim Salem:  Sorry, Guest!...Please ignore my Trichet comment in relation to the Pound... I am thinking of Trichet while looking at Cable... My Apologies... :-)

1:03	Valeria Bednarik:  Tarun! I don't see much correlation these days between gbp and yen, better watch gbp cad correlation. Usd/Jpy has tested 99.50/60 zone UNCOUNTABLE times these days. If manages to break above, I see a retest of the 101.00 zone

1:03	[Comment From amin] valeria wat do u fink abt GBP/USD today later on and in da coming few days

1:03	[Comment From Mr. CAD] I think we should dump GBP given the massive quantitative easing announcement. Dont you think any ascendency is a selling opportunity now

1:04

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1:04	Valeria Bednarik:  Hi amin, will depend on today's close.. for me, above 1.5115/20, the pair will regain the bullish side. under 1.5000, probably fall more in the next days,

1:06	Valeria Bednarik:   Euro reaches first resistance zone... after breaking 1.3345 Wall Street Futures are also rising, and that could be risk appetite supportive right now

1:06	[Comment From Ken (Spain)] Please define "other measures" does that mean "non-standard" or like US/BoE ?

1:06

Tim Salem:  Mr, CAD...I am in favor of your View here... and despite the "over-zealousness"of Q.E. with the BoE... "Technically"... the Poundis due for a decent Corrective move anyway.... As your Rationale is correc there... THe Big Boys are looking for a "Sell-Into-Strength" View here... as the Options Barriers just below 1.50 are "Targets" for them to eliminate.

1:07	FXstreet.com:  International Traders Conference 2009 – October 14-16 - Barcelona (Spain)

1:07	FXstreet.com:  Book your seat before it's too late... This year seats are limited to 60! Don't wait too much! Confirmed speakers so far are James Chen, Valeria Bednarik, Markus Heitkoetter and Rob Booker! More to be confirmed very soon!

1:07	Valeria Bednarik:  non standard yes ken, maybe purchasing assets..eurozone is a zone, not a country.. they can not apply exactly the same tools. UK and US did... so the surprise is what's making us all anxious

1:07	[Comment From Dusan] Valeria, thanks for your answer - it is obvious, but I asked on your personal feeling.

1:08	Valeria Bednarik:  you re welcome of course

1:08	[Comment From Rohit] what do think about euro/usd in next trading session?

1:08	[Comment From Huzaifa Ali] Is there any updates about CHF ?

1:09	Valeria Bednarik:  Hi Huzaifa... let me see

1:11

Valeria Bednarik:  General trend for me! remains bearish there, but! we have already had one SNB intervention to avoid appreciations in CFH and 1.1240 is a very strong support level. 1.1350 has proben also to be quite strong. under 1.1200 we can see more selling there, and a recoup above 1.1440 zone will made the pair regain the upside

1:11	[Comment From Ken (Spain)] 1.3373 just broke...no onelisten to oxgn

1:11	[Comment From Huzaifa Ali] r u getting my messages ?

1:12	Valeria Bednarik:  Yes! we get all messages, with a bit of delay! you are in the world, Tim in the US me in Argentina, server in SPAIN... haha... please have some patient ok? TKS

1:12	[Comment From Tarun] okay valeria, am waiting for you to update your blog , so as you tim .

1:12

Tim Salem:  Rohit... in the U.S. Session...we will see how U.S. Equities pick up with the Decisions in the Equity Futures... as these will find Correlation or Non-Correlation. The Euro "normally" wil lbegin to Pullback "theoretically" as the Data would have been "digested".... but again... THE KEY here is Trichet's Commentary at the Press Conference... as his words will "Set Up" the Fiber for the remainderof the Day.

1:12	Valeria Bednarik:  Tks tarum, we will

1:12	[Comment From Mr. CAD] Valeria what is your view on the EURCHF

1:13	Valeria Bednarik:  let me find the chart! but Tim is following it better than me!

1:14	[Comment From Huzaifa Ali] What is the expection of gold today

1:15	Valeria Bednarik:   Mr, Cad, euro chf seems to been consolidating after bottoming around 1.5000 level, and seems for me, bullish with next target zone around 1.5240, resistance level

1:16	[Comment From naeem] Hi this is Naeem what is the recation of rate cut

1:17	Valeria Bednarik:  Recation? sorry naeem don't understand your question

1:17	[Comment From Mr. CAD] Thanks TIM. I added to my shorts now

1:17	[Comment From naeem] can u tell me about euro

1:17	FXstreet.com:  The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik

1:17	Valeria Bednarik:  Naeem, euro now will be on hold waiting for Trichet around this zone. Take a look up at previous answers

1:17	[Comment From DUKUNFOREX] I think EURUSD double top 1.3384

1:17	[Comment From bester] jeee... why do we all love trading so much!!!

1:17	FXstreet.com:  Forex Trading Today by Tim Salem (CVJ)

1:17

Tim Salem:  Huzaifa... from the IntraDay View...Gols rests on the 38.2 % Fib of the prior 1005 Daily High... it may Consolidate here for a bit...and then begin to Correct. Gold is moving purely on Emotional Sentiment the last few months...so Fear will drive it Higher with Safe-Haven Status...and Risk Appetite will drive it lower. Its Own Fundamentals are largely irrelevant right now. In the Mid-Term...a Correction back tothe 900 Figure is Highly-Plausible.

1:18	Valeria Bednarik:  Good question Bester! I will reserve my answer there, sorry!

1:18	[Comment From Ken (Spain)] thanks for the previous answer Valeria. What is the worst thing that you believe Trichet could say? Worse being defined as what would hurt the euro the most (make it go down toward 1.30)

1:19	Valeria Bednarik:   Hi Ken! further rate cuts, or measures like buying assests or so

1:19	[Comment From Ken (Spain)] where can you watch his speech live?

1:19	Valeria Bednarik:   at ECB home page!

1:19	[Comment From naeem] what about euro and gpb/yen

1:20	[Comment From amin] dear valeria i want to know more abt da currencies specially GBP/USD so all i want is dat if i can keeppmin touch wiv you by mail or any other way

1:20	Tim Salem:  In agreement, Val!... Trichet's Commentary on the Purchasing of Private Securities and Governments Bonds... and their Re-Allocation.

1:21	Valeria Bednarik:  yes amin no problem! valbednarik@gmail.com is my mail

1:21	[Comment From keynes] can you tell me your opinion about stress test results will take it to 1,25 again ?

1:21	FXstreet.com:  Here you can check the live ECB speech.... starting soon http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html

1:23	Valeria Bednarik:  Hi Keynes, today 5 pm east! Stress Test results another jump in markets! I believe it will come out better than expect and could rock markets again,.if soo, stocks will rise along with risk appetite, probably yen down and dollar down, not that much against Euro. That's my view

1:23

[Comment From anj] hi there. I feel a bit confused as to how to play out the day. We have ECB conference in less then 15 mins....and lets say that they dont anounce any non standard measures...so then EUR = up. Then at 17EST, we have Bank Stress Test Results...and what if they are really bad....will that bring EUR back down as much as it would have taken it up?

1:24

Tim Salem:  naeem...In the coming Session when the Data is "digested"... the Fiber shouldbe gin to correct...as should the Poun Yen...Watch the 1.3220's/00 Area for Price to be maintained below the Level...and the 148/80's/149.30's in Pound Yen. BemIndful,though, that Pound Yen loves to "Test" Its own IntraDay Levels..so watch for a "Re-Test" of the 150.90's/151.00 Area as well!

1:25	Valeria Bednarik:  Ani, no need to rush on market now. if you trade long term, wait for the release. at 5 pm east. If you are a short term one, try to close your positions before the stress test, and give market maybe an hour to plan again your position

1:26	[Comment From keynes] thanks for answer valeria

1:26	[Comment From ceasar] hi, are you bearish or bullish on Euro at current levels and if you had to play it with speach in mind what would be the best strategy?

1:26	[Comment From naeem] i mean when usa cut its rate usd is weeker like this will euro be weeker also or not

1:26	FXstreet.com:   Here you can watch the live ECB speech.... starting soon http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html

1:27

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1:27	[Comment From UK] how long left until the trichet announcement and how big of an announcement is it expected to be? also what currency pair is it best to be looking at nearer to its announcement time?

1:27	Tim Salem:  I see naeem... Euro willbe "weaker" of Trichet's Cooemtaryis the Catalyst to do so... the actual Decision Itself is was Priced-In in this case... So the markets is waiting to see if their "Expectations" are On The Mark or not....

1:28	Valeria Bednarik:  Ceasar, neither at current levels, not me at least. my best strategy will be to wait 30 minutes till speach is over, and then, look for supp and res levels close to that price, and wait for them.

1:28	[Comment From anj] which one of these would make the greatest impact on EUR/USD....ECB or Stress Test Results?

1:30

Tim Salem:  UK... Personally...I look "outside" of the Pair in question that is directly "affected" in my own Trading Work. So instead of looking "Directly" into the Eyesof the Euro... I may choose the Inverse Correlation of the Swissy... or a Cross such as Euro Yen... A fine and logical way to "Be Involved" in this Trading Manner...but you also have a bit of a "Shield" against Direct Risk.

1:30	Valeria Bednarik:  Anj, i believe not just these two but also tomorrow NFP in the U.S will have impact in market, but as Tim use to say, most of this reports are NOISE in market.. all together, and asuming they will come in the "same way", they can change trend.

1:30	[Comment From essexboy] all hypothetical.... wait and see what happens... why second guess?

1:31	Valeria Bednarik:  exaclty essexboy!

1:31	[Comment From amin] thanks vaeria

1:31	[Comment From naeem] u mean to say if it reach to 151.00 area shall i go to short

1:31	FXstreet.com:   Non-Farm Productivity +0.8% VS Forecast +0.3%

1:31	[Comment From Keynes] thanks Val ! So you think that bear market is over and we had seen the worst already,rite?

1:31	[Comment From aigee] where can i see stress test result

1:32	[Comment From Shariq] i know we are talking about eur and gbp most , any View on AUSSIE /usd

1:32	FXstreet.com:  Week Jobless Claims To 635K From 631K

1:32	Valeria Bednarik:  Probably Keynes, thus we are just bottoming... growth signals must be seen for a couple of months before some real optimism reaches economies

1:33	Tim Salem:  naeem... Observe what Price does at that Level..if it Holds and develops new Support there...or if it Fails and remains Dynamic Resistance... Allow the Market to lead you....to give you enough Information to define your Criteria....

1:33	Valeria Bednarik:  Test results here! at Fxstreet. com news page

1:33	[Comment From james] market seems stagnant now.. =)

1:33	Valeria Bednarik:  Yes James, waiting for Trichet

1:33	[Comment From ceasar] thanks...

1:34	[Comment From bug] do u have any ideas about eurchf , it will fall again or will be on hes way up ?

1:34	Valeria Bednarik:  Bug, we already answer that, check above please

1:34	Tim Salem:  Yes James... as Institutional Entities are wating to Re-Position here... so large Order Flows are Off the Tablefor now.....

1:34	[Comment From Shariq] any view on Aussie pls.

1:36	Valeria Bednarik:   Trichet startded and euro is falling fast! let's see what is he saying

1:36	Valeria Bednarik:  Trichet is launching quantitative easing!

1:37	Valeria Bednarik:  that's why euro is falling, yet jumping

1:37

Tim Salem:  Sure, Shariq!... Aussie has been in a well-defined Symmetrical Channel on the Hourly View...and is due for a Correction. Watch this latest Candle here formore Information... as we may develop into slight Consoldation before a Pullback to the 7470's Area which is a 38.2% Fib Variant from the Weekly 9852 High... a LARGE Macro-Bear Flag there....

1:37	Valeria Bednarik:  yen is breaking above 99.60 could reach the 100.00 zone. Euro tested the 1.3280 level.

1:38	[Comment From Ken (Spain)] can you hear anything on the live conference right now? I have no sound!!

1:38	[Comment From UK] thanks for the answer. Looking at the economic calender, tomorrow there are five big announcements all at the same time, will this be a good trading oppurtuinity and will the affect of these announcements be realy big?

1:38	[Comment From anj] Thank you for all your answers Valeria

1:38	[Comment From Randers] Hi Val. What about eastern european countries? What are the medium term expectations for EUR/CZK?

1:38	Valeria Bednarik:   Sorry randers, I don't use to see those currencies!

1:38	[Comment From DUKUNFOREX] yeee EURUSD double top 1.3384

1:38

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1:39	Valeria Bednarik:   let me see dukunforex but tell us where do you see the neck?

1:40	Valeria Bednarik:  1.3240 right? that's the nexk line of the double roof break under that level could trigger some more selling pressire there

1:41	[Comment From mohamed amin] what is going on with EUR/USD?

1:41	Valeria Bednarik:  Trichet speaking..

1:41	[Comment From Ahmar] Whats your prediction on the Euro now?

1:42	Valeria Bednarik:  No predictions till Trichet is over! watch for previous high at 1.3380

1:42	Valeria Bednarik:  or recent low break

1:43	Tim Salem:  Indeed... The large Wicks you see are simply Market "Noise"...1.3340- 1.3380 is still defining Price....

1:43	Valeria Bednarik:   Gbp is breaking under 1.5050...

1:43	Valeria Bednarik:  breaking the 20 SMA and ready to test 1.5000

1:43	[Comment From Niklaus B.] is the GBP due to the strong financials overbought

1:44	[Comment From Tarun] hey valeria, i think its everything good news for USD whats nest in eur/usd and gbp/usd ?

1:46	Valeria Bednarik:  Tarum to jumpy market now, but Gbp breaking here not so good.. and Euro needs to break previous high to regain upside.

1:46	[Comment From abraham zeitoun] its seems tht gbp nd eur r running in opp direct -do u think chanse to c .8950 on the eur\gbp today?

1:46	Valeria Bednarik:  eur gbp needs to break 0.8880. if so yes.

1:47	[Comment From tibeurus] why do we getting these large price swings in the eur/usd today?

1:47	Valeria Bednarik:  Tibeurus, ECB is announcing monetary policies... rates, quantitative easing and such...

1:47

Tim Salem:  Niklaus...they may play a Role... and very Insightful of you to be looking into Inter-Market Analysis!... As we know...Currencies do not exist in a Vacuum...... also keep in mind tha the GBP will often follow Its own Course... while "digesting" Its own Fundamentals and then sticking with Technicals due to Its inherent Volatility.

1:48	[Comment From Guest] looks like it is prevaling for a rise

1:49	Valeria Bednarik:  Yes and breaking above previous high and breaking above the small double roof we were seeing.

1:49	Tim Salem:  Now...Fiber is looking towards a potential Triple-Top here on an Hourly View... so let's see if 1.3437/40 can be Acheived....

1:49	Valeria Bednarik:   exaclty Tim

1:50	[Comment From anj] i dont understand... if they are announcing monetary policies... rates, quantitative easing and such, then why is EUR going up?

1:50	Valeria Bednarik:  Trichet effect. still nothing defined.. wait and see

1:50	[Comment From arfan] val, do u think gbp/jpy can touch 147.40 ?

1:51	Tim Salem:  Anj... Simply due to how the Markets are reacting" to the Rhetoric moment by moemnt....

1:51	[Comment From rami] hey vlaeria how u doing,,do u expect eur/usd to rise to 1.3500 again today bfore the american news at night

1:52	Valeria Bednarik:  Hi Rami, only if breaks above 1.3440 high. still we have this 1.3385 zone holding the upside.

1:52	[Comment From Guest] Is the Trichet speech over?

1:52	FXstreet.com:  Sorry .. We have a copule of minutes left.. Please ask Valeria and Tim anything related tot he Market!.. Do miss this chance!

1:52	Tim Salem:  arfan...Tim here...In the Mid-Term...I am with you here.... Pound Yen... and the Yen Crosses in general... are stillnot finished with Risk-Aversion Behavior...sothis may take us, in this case, all the way back to the 145.50's Area of massive Static Support.....

1:53	Valeria Bednarik:  Not all, probably answer questions

1:53	[Comment From anj] Thanks Tim and Val. But b/c of this announcing....should'nt EUR be going down?

1:53	[Comment From abraham zeitoun] .888 touche val -so possbl .8940?

1:54	Valeria Bednarik:  Hi abraham wait next 30 minutes to confirm the movement, and Trichet finishing the questionare.

1:54	[Comment From amin] dear val wat way is GPB/USD going right now

1:55

Tim Salem:  Anj... In a "Normal" market Climate... we would thinkthis would be the case wouldn't we!... But in dealing with Trichet and his "Weight" of Rhetoric over the Euro... his Comments really need to play out and be digested in the markets before we have any realy "Basing Points" tomove forward with....

1:55	Valeria Bednarik:  Amin Gbp is fighting with the 1.5050 zone, the 20 SMA in 4 hours charts.. follow it to get clues! if remains under, down! if regains above, up yet for me is down likely now

1:55	[Comment From Oreo] Hi Val, do u think the market is way to volitile to be trading at the moment? i want to wait for a clear direction? what do u think?

1:56	[Comment From miq-glen] What you think about eur/jpy, i have short position and now -100 pips

1:56	Valeria Bednarik:  Yes OREO! that's why I always suggest to wait a couple of 15 mnutes candle after is all over

1:56	[Comment From arfan] thanks val. your answer is good enough for me. thanks val and tim for to day.

1:57	[Comment From anj] Thank you Tim. You guys are very very helpful.

1:57	[Comment From amin] thanks alot val nd tim

1:57	FXstreet.com:   Time is up! Sorry i have to wrap up the event Thank you everyone for joining the event today I have had a great time with you !

1:57	Valeria Bednarik:  You are all welcome! Euro break above

1:58	[Comment From Oreo] thnxs!

1:58	[Comment From xero] thanks

1:59	[Comment From denny] thanks Val and Tim

1:59	[Comment From abraham zeitoun] tnkx veri much!!

1:59	Tim Salem:  Sure thing!... Thank you to Everyone for your Insightful Participation!... It is what makes these Events enjoyable and Educational for all Involved!

1:59	FXstreet.com:  And Thank you ! Valeria and Tim, You both are great! we really appreciate your market comments! Thank you

1:59	Valeria Bednarik:  Yes! time to go! I have enjoyed very much being here, tks all for participating, as Tim says, is education for us all. Hope to see you soon back

1:59	[Comment From Tarun] thanks a lot tim, and valeria

2:00	Valeria Bednarik:  and remember! watch for technical levels and confirmations after this is over.

2:00	[Comment From rami] thx val

2:00	[Comment From amin] val i ll be contacting u by mail

2:00	Tim Salem:  Watch your Key levels moving forward, Everyone for Adherence or Violation... as we move into the U.S. Session... other Large Entities will "Jump Onboard" and run with current Price Action with the additional market Volume.

2:00	FXstreet.com:  okayy Valeria , please give us a final word

2:01	FXstreet.com:   Also, Tim please

2:03	Valeria Bednarik:  Majors are still not defining but seems euro is set to rise, and Gbp to test the 1.5000. Japanese Yen failed to confirm above the 99.60 zone, but I believethings will set and consolidate around actual levels, untill the test stress results.

2:03	Tim Salem:  Feel free to Post Inquiries on our Blogs as well... and I may be reached at ultramaxgroup@yahoo.com for any other Queries as well ! Also...keep in mind the overall "Muted" Price Action as we head further into the Day, and closer toNon-Farm Payroll Data tomorrow!

2:04	FXstreet.com:  International Traders Conference 2009 – October 14-16 - Barcelona (Spain)

2:04	FXstreet.com:  Book your seat before it's too late... This year seats are limited to 60! Don't wait too much! Confirmed speakers so far are James Chen, Valeria Bednarik, Markus Heitkoetter and Rob Booker! More to be confirmed very soon!

2:04	Valeria Bednarik:  See you! bye!!! have a grat trading day

2:05	FXstreet.com:  Thank you again Valeria and Tim. and everyone who has joined today.. I ma very happy

2:05	[Comment From amin] thanks to u nf fxstreet

2:06	Tim Salem:  Have a fine Day, Everyone, and watch your Risk Exposure tomorrow! Remember... remaining "Flat" is also a deeply Viable Position!

2:06	FXstreet.com:  Tomorrow We have NFP live coverage at 12:15 GMT. I hope to see you again!

2:08	FXstreet.com:  ok.. see you tomorrow.. Have a nice trading day!!!!!

2:08	FXstreet.com:  I would like to specially thank CMS Forex, today’s sponsor, for their support. Open a live account with CMS with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now. Use the following links to follow up about today’s main market news.

2:08	FXstreet.com:  CMS General Research page

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2:08	FXstreet.com:  Expert Analysis of Today's Market

2:08	FXstreet.com:  Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead

2:08	FXstreet.com:  Expert Analysis of Today's Market

2:11

Economic and Technical View of the Currency Market

Expert: Rob Booker, Founder and Host at TraderRadio.net
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
Rob Booker surveys the most important recent economic news, including what is currently driving movement the currency markets. He also covers some of the best current short and long term trading setups using a unique technical perspective.

The Weather Report: Ichimoku Cloud Trading

Expert: Chris Capre, Founder at Second Skies LLC
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
Many traders have had challenges trading the JPY pairs. However the Japanese traders have had large amounts of success in trading their native currency. This is not just due to familiarity, but the approach and indicators they use to measure key levels for these pairs - the Ichimoku Cloud.

This indicator is not only easy to learn, but highly accurate in giving JPY trading signals. When one learns how to use it correctly, one can build a very high accuracy and profit ratio trading the JPY pairs which can be some of the most volatile. Taking this class can give you a chance to master trading the yen and learn a unique approach to trading the asian pairs as a whole.

Ichimoku is included in our "Live chart Panel": http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/charts-panel/

Understanding the simple rules of Money Management – Part I: The Risk-to-Reward ratio

Expert: Sunil Mangwani, CEO at FibForex123
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
A Trading Plan is often the thin line between success and failure in the markets & the ‘Trading Plan’ must incorporate the 3M’s (Money, Mind & method…in that order).

It is “Money Management” which is the most important part of a trading plan…and ironically the most ignored.

If a trader understands only the following 2 rules of money management, it highly increases the probability of success –

1. The Risk-to-Reward ratio.
2. The correct exposure of the trading capital.

In the first part of this series, we will have a look at the Risk-to-Reward ratio, understand the importance of this ratio and learn how to implement it in the “Trading plan”.