Non-Farm Payrolls Release Live Coverage
| Non-Farm Payrolls release Live Coverage with Nick Nasad | (05/08/2009) |
1:12 | FXstreet.com: Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's U.S. NFP Live Coverage will start in 5 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Nick Nasad who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. He will be giving us a direct picture for the market status. |
1:13 | FXstreet.com: Nick Nasad is a currency market analyst with CMS Forex for the last 3 years. He closely monitors fundamental releases and reports their results and provides commentary to the company's clients through CMS Forex's interactive economic calendar Forex Capsule and through daily Forex market video recaps. He has also written extensive educational material on using technical analysis in trading Forex. |
1:13 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Hello everyone, and thank you fxstreet for having me on again |
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1:15 | Nick Nasad - CMS: We come into today's nonfarm payroll report with currencies showing signs of risk appetite as stocks in Asia and Europe climbed following the release of the US bank stress test info. |
1:16 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the implication that banks have to raise more capital, but that the figure was smaller than feared is hleping to push a sense that the worst of the recession may be over for the US, or that it is at least moderating. |
1:17 | Nick Nasad - CMS: that is something the jobs report should show as well, with job losses, though still expected to top half a million, should show job destruction slowing. |
1:17 | FXstreet.com: Hi Nick ! and Everyone,,, Thank you for joining today the live coverage. i am really happy. |
| 1:17 | What do you anticipate the outcome of NFP? Better than expected and bullish for the USD ( 56% ) ( 19% ) ( 13% ) ( 6% ) ( 6% ) |
1:18 | Nick Nasad - CMS: as we await the NFP release, please ask me any questions.. |
1:18 | Nick Nasad - CMS: forecasts are ranging between -580K and -615K for today's release. |
1:21 | Nick Nasad - CMS: recently we've seen numbers above -650K the previous two months.. there have been some encouraging signs this week from the labor market in the US in that the ADP employment change figure came in much better than expected and jobless claims have eased off their higher levels. Yesterday the most recent claims data showed a reading 601K which was the lowest level since January |
1:21 | Nick Nasad - CMS: sorry, got disconnected.. |
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1:23 | [Comment From min ] So, if better than expected or as expected, what impact do you expect it to have on eur/usd? thanks |
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1:24 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the EUR/USD is showing risk appetite at the moment and traders responded well to the ECB's interest rate decision from yesterday |
1:25 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Policy makers cut rates and announced a plan to spend EUR60 billion in order to ease credit markets. Though that may not have amounted to the quantitative easing some were looking for, it did show that the ECB is trying to avoid the inflationary risks associated with quantitative easing. This was seen helping provide the euro with support. |
1:26 | Nick Nasad - CMS: a better than expected figure then should continue to boost risk appetite and help the pair reach higher, to 1.35.. |
1:26 | [Comment From Naeem] i have sold euro/usd yesterday at 1.3306 do u have any comment on it |
1:27 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the EUR/USD looks to be forming an upwars sloping channel, with that level very close to the bottom support level. if you connect the lows from this week and last week, and project a parallel trendline with this week's highs, you can see we have been testing these levels |
1:27 | FXstreet.com: CMS Forex, today’s Sponsor also produces expert analysis, market research and daily market news coverage with videos and reports. Browse the following URLs to learn and take profit from their expertise. |
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1:28 | [Comment From arfan] hi nick, what happen to gbp/usd if nfp worse than expected? |
1:28 | FXstreet.com: Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead |
1:28 | [Comment From Guest] Good Morning Nicky...What is your thought on Cable/Dollar? |
1:28 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the Pound unlike the Euro, fell in the wake of its anouncement yesterday that it will increase quantitative easing measures by anouther 50 billion pounds. |
1:29 | FXstreet.com: Preview : Change in Nonfarm Payroll: -600K v -663K prior (Note the range of estimate are from -360K to -750K)- Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: -155K v -161K prior |
1:29 | Nick Nasad - CMS: however after testing support near 1.4950 we have seen a rally overnight. a better than expected release should push the pair back to retest its high from yesterday. |
1:30 | Nick Nasad - CMS: ok, so that news falls in line with expectations, and should give traders and those watching fundamentals the sense that the US economy's recession is moderating. |
1:30 | FXstreet.com: NFP -539k |
1:31 | FXstreet.com: Unemplyment rate is 8.9% |
1:31 | Nick Nasad - CMS: lets see if we have a move in favor of the greenback (the release showing a stronger economy) or if risk appetite will win out and higher yielders will rally. |
1:32 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the knee jerk reaction is a gain in the greenback |
1:32 | Nick Nasad - CMS: especially the EUR/USD.. this is likely a knee jerk response to the better figure as it shows the US economy is seeing its pace of job destruction easing |
1:33 | Nick Nasad - CMS: from a risk appetite standpoint though, the greenback should not gain too much as its allure lies during times of risk aversion.. |
1:33 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the initial EUR/USD losses are already being pared, |
1:34 | Nick Nasad - CMS: now we have set new intra-day highs on eur/usd and gbp/usd |
1:34 | Nick Nasad - CMS: traders are all betting in the same direction |
1:34 | FXstreet.com: NFP- 539K . unemployment rate is 8.9%. |
1:34 | Nick Nasad - CMS: this could be a strong response as the news is very risk appetite friendly |
1:34 | [Comment From Tarun] hey nick will good news for USD make eur/usd to go high ? |
1:35 | Nick Nasad - CMS: we have already hit a new high, and have broken a resistance level i had for my upward sloping channel. |
1:35 | [Comment From Naeem] what will be th expected impact on usd if we have good nfp |
1:35 | [Comment From dawn] risk appetite will rise.. |
1:35 | [Comment From Mungo] Hi Nick. Australian unemployment figures were better than expected and consumers are buying/spending up in the retail sector....in Australia at least. The world will be watching tonight= volatility for sure |
1:36 | Nick Nasad - CMS: commodity currencies have been strong of late, and the Aussie and Loonie are climbing now as well. |
1:36 | Nick Nasad - CMS: we are testing 1.35 now with EUR/USD. this would be my first profit target, but seems like we will be going higher than that today |
1:37 | [Comment From michael] eur$ broken 1.3500 where do you think its heading? |
1:38 | Nick Nasad - CMS: we are seeing some profit taking at that level, a pause in our initial rally.. the logical point of resistance, if we move higher today is 1.3550 |
1:38 | [Comment From Mungo] Big resitance at 1.3500 Euro |
1:38 | [Comment From min] Any comments on Eur/Yen Nick? Thanks |
1:39 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the EUR/JPY is running up against its own resistance from around April 12th. we seem to be in a second leg of a rally that started near 125, we retraced back to teh 130 level this week, and now we are breaking new ground. |
1:40 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the response to the NFP is being contained by the 133.80 level, so this second leg may be a bit slower than what we saw last week.. |
1:41 | [Comment From Guest] whY a weak reaction in $/yen?? Should be looking at the 100 mark after a positive nfp? |
1:41 | Nick Nasad - CMS: since the greenback is feeling pressured in other currency pairs that seems to be extending to the usd/jpy. |
1:42 | [Comment From dingwa] Hi Nick, what are your reasonings for your profit target to be 1.35? |
1:42 | Nick Nasad - CMS: im mainly looking at resistance from the beginning of April,.. theres one at teh 1.35 level, and then and another slighlty higher at 1.3580 |
1:44 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the initial enthusiasm has quieted down somewhat, |
1:44 | [Comment From min] What target do you see for eur/yen? thanks |
1:46 | Nick Nasad - CMS: currently we seem to be contained within the 134 level.. but overall, risk sentiment is pointing towards optimism, which should help carry trade.. if we look at our rally from April 28th to May 4th.. it amounted to about 780 pips. |
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1:47 | Nick Nasad - CMS: if we project that same amount from our 130 low, we could be looking at a test of 138,.. however there is strong visual resistance near 137.25.. |
1:47 | Nick Nasad - CMS: these are more medium term projections, and we would have to see a continuation of risk appetite in the following weeks. |
1:48 | [Comment From Naeem] what do u think about aud/usd |
1:49 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the initial reaction to the NFP release, though pointing toward risk appetite, has not caused the kind of volatility it could have.. i mean, theres only so much risk appetite from seeing the US economy shed 530K jobs. so, we pushed up to new intra-day highs, but the market did not become exuberant over the news. |
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1:50 | Nick Nasad - CMS: of course there's still alot of trading to be done before the week closes out, but looks like traders may be waiting to see how US equities fare |
1:50 | [Comment From Armin] Why do you think Eur/Usd still dropping |
1:51 | Nick Nasad - CMS: there is a bout of profit taking at the 1.35 level in the EUR/USD which has capped the greenback's losses for now, and we seems to be retracing part of our rise already.. |
1:52 | [Comment From ifxworld] hey Nick! where do you see USD/JPY heading? With yen being favoured as save heaven and risk appetite on the increase, would you say a further rise is likely in the pair? |
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1:54 | Nick Nasad - CMS: thats good analysis. if risk sentiment remains to be positive, the pair should see an increase. However, we are fighting a bit of resistance to break above 99.50, so wait for a break there before initiating a long position.. unless we have a move downward that you feel is a good retracement and entry opportunity.. We were as high as 101.40 in April, so theres room for the pair to rise.. |
1:54 | [Comment From eric] so if equities are bullish then it will back the greenback? |
1:55 | Nick Nasad - CMS: its slightly counter intuitive, but since the greenback has been a destination for safe haven, higher equities actually diminish the demand for the dollar for that purpose. so, higher equities will actualyl support higher yielders (Euro, Pound, Aussie) |
1:56 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the USD/JPY just bounced off a short term line of support |
1:56 | [Comment From Guest] GBP/USD ? |
1:57 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Though we saw an initial rally, we have stalled out in the pair, and we have remained withing the price range from yesterday. |
1:58 | Nick Nasad - CMS: a test of 1.5150 is possible, but the Pound weakness from yesterday could limit any further gains from the Pound. |
1:59 | [Comment From HARI] What about EUR/USD today? |
1:59 | Nick Nasad - CMS: we are moving back up to retest our high that we set following the NFP release |
2:01 | Nick Nasad - CMS: but compared to the initial response we saw, the current movement is quite labored. |
2:01 | [Comment From Stu] Nick, is there a demo video of your company's chart recognition software? |
2:01 | Nick Nasad - CMS: http://www.cmsfx.com/en/trading-software/vt-trader-features/pattern-recognition-technology/ |
2:01 | [Comment From min] market opens in half an hour...do you see dow and commodities affecting eur/usd? thanks |
2:02 | Nick Nasad - CMS: seems that we are waiting for further impetus on where to go next. a positive response from Wall Street could be that catalyst. |
2:03 | [Comment From min] Catalyst for a move up or down on eur/usd? |
2:04 | Nick Nasad - CMS: a catalyst for a move up if we see strong stock increases |
2:04 | Nick Nasad - CMS: we are at 1.35 again with EUR/USD |
2:05 | [Comment From cindy] Nick, what's your thoughts on usd/cad....are we in for a correction? |
2:06 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the Loonie has been a very good performer the last two months as global equities have rallied and oil prices have increased |
2:06 | Nick Nasad - CMS: we are now fast approaching an important support level near 1.15 (Nov. 5th low) |
2:07 | Nick Nasad - CMS: a strong downmove, plus critical support should be two signs that we could have a correction.. but the employment data from Canada was a big surprise today, and with oil gaining I wouldnt bet against the Loonie at this point. |
2:08 | [Comment From min] Thanks Nick...I just want to say I really enjoy your analysis :) |
2:08 | [Comment From Mehrius] EUR/USD had a hard time breaking the channel 22nd 28th april lows and highs from 28th and 5th of may |
2:09 | Nick Nasad - CMS: yes, we rose above the resistance level, but it did not lead to a breakout.. |
2:10 | [Comment From Mr. CAD] The EURGBP has gone up despite the charts pointing it downwards. Has it changed course Nick |
2:10 | Nick Nasad - CMS: that is a very good analysis, we broke a downward sloping resistance level, and this week, especially yesterday, showed a very big move towards Euro strength compared to the Pound. |
2:12 | Nick Nasad - CMS: we have also now bounced up off support if we connect our lows from APril 15th and April 22nd in the pair |
2:13 | [Comment From eric] thanks Nick, great Job as always |
2:13 | [Comment From arfan] how about gbp/jpy nick, any comment of that pair ? |
2:14 | FXstreet.com: Sorry ,,, We have just 5 minutes left.... Please ask Nick anything releated to the market... Do not miss chances! |
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2:15 | Nick Nasad - CMS: compared to the rally from April 28th to May 5th we seem to be showing a bit of a rounded top reversal.. |
2:16 | [Comment From HARI] could u please tell me the possible low and high for EUR/USD and GBP/USD? |
2:17 | Nick Nasad - CMS: for today, a strong rise in equities could push the euro higher, with resistance at 1.3570.. |
2:17 | [Comment From Phil] Do you see a correction on the EURUSD |
2:17 | Nick Nasad - CMS: but, since its Friday, profit taking may limit any increase. |
2:18 | [Comment From amin] hi nick wat u fink abt GBP/USD right now wud it touch 1.5150 |
2:18 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the Pound is actually losing ground already following our test of 1.5123,. we look to be retesting the 1.5050 level as support first.. |
2:18 | FXstreet.com: Time is up... Sorry .... I have to wrap up the live session. |
2:19 | Nick Nasad - CMS: maybe its just the end of this week, but the Pound lost some of its allure.. |
2:19 | Nick Nasad - CMS: ok everyone, thank you so much for your questions and comments |
2:19 | Nick Nasad - CMS: i tried my best to answer as many as I could. |
2:20 | Nick Nasad - CMS: today's nonfarm reinforces the perception that teh recession in the US is moderating and has boosted risk appetite. |
2:20 | FXstreet.com: Thank you everyone for joining the live coverage today. I have had a great time with you. |
2:20 | [Comment From amin] thanks nick |
2:20 | [Comment From min] thanks nick |
2:21 | [Comment From Armin] And me, it's a good insight when you can see the flow of ideas from a pro |
2:21 | FXstreet.com: Thank you Nick for the great analytical comments on the market!.... We really appreciate that!.. thank you very much |
2:21 | Nick Nasad - CMS: thank you for the kind words everyone |
2:21 | [Comment From marek] thanks Nick |
2:21 | [Comment From arfan] thanks nick :-) |
2:22 | Nick Nasad - CMS: allright everyone, watch the equities markets as that will be the main driver left in today's action. |
2:22 | Nick Nasad - CMS: and I will see everyone next time. |
2:22 | Nick Nasad - CMS: please do check out our site, http://www.cmsfx.com/ |
2:22 | Nick Nasad - CMS: and test out our platform VT Trader with a demo account.. |
2:23 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Also subscribe to our daily video RSS feed: http://www.cmsfx.com/rss/daily-videos.xml |
2:23 | Nick Nasad - CMS: we provide you with a look at the fundamental and technical highlights from each session |
2:24 | Nick Nasad - CMS: ok, and with that, i wish everyone good success in their trading, and have a great weekend! |
2:24 | FXstreet.com: Okay, everybone,,, Thank you for coming... i hope to see all of you guys in the next live coverage... Bye for now! Have a nice weekend... Adios |
2:24 | FXstreet.com: I would like to specially thank CMS Forex, today’s sponsor, for their support. Open a live account with CMS with a low minimum initial deposit of $200 now. Use the following links to follow up about today’s main market news. |
2:24 | FXstreet.com: CMS General Research page |
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2:24 | FXstreet.com: Forex Capsule - Weekly Chart Analysis and calendar for the week ahead |
2:25 | [Comment From Guest ] thanks |
2:25 | [Comment From Guest ] thanks |
2:25 | [Comment From Guest ] thanks |
2:25 | [Comment From Guest ] thanks!! |
2:28 |  |
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