BoE and ECB Live Coverage
| BoE and ECB Live Coverage with Tim Salem and Valeria Bednarik | (06/04/2009) |
| 11:44 | FXstreet.com: Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's BoE and ECB Interest Rates Decisions Live Coverage will start in 10 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Valeria Bednarik and Tim Salem (CVJ), who are going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. They will be giving us a direct picture fo the market status. |
| 11:44 | FXstreet.com: Valeria Bednarik has been an active Forex trader for the last 4 years, specializing in the International Foreign Exchange Market. She also graduates in the Universidad Catolica del Salvador, in Argentina, as a Public Account, specializing in financials and cost managements. She currently manages an important clients portfolio for IFX Markets, Boston and is senior trader manager at Molfx-Management; besides she works training new traders with Trader College LLC specializing in technical analysis, for the English speaking community. |
| 11:44 | FXstreet.com: Tim Salem (CVJ) is the Owner/CEO of UltraMax Group, LLC; and a private retail Trader for himself and others. He is currently embarking on the Commodity Trading Advisor track (CTA).Actually he is running FX FOR A LIVING.com, a company for helping traders archive consistency in his trading. |
| 11:45 | FXstreet.com: Tim Salem (CVJ) is the Owner/CEO of UltraMax Group, LLC; and a private retail Trader for himself and others. He is currently embarking on the Commodity Trading Advisor track (CTA). |
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| 11:48 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi everybody, and welcome back! as always, my pleasure to be here with you, and with Tim! |
| 11:48 | Valeria Bednarik: As you may know, rates are expected to remain unchanged today in both central economies |
| 11:48 | [Comment From Guest] hello |
| 11:48 | [Comment From sumit kumar ram] hi |
| 11:48 | [Comment From AdyB] Hi Valeria, hi Tim |
| 11:49 | [Comment From Guest] Has the ECB pronounced the decision yet? |
| 11:49 | Tim Salem: Welcome back, Everyone once again for aother Interest Rate Coverage Session!... Thank you for having us and spending some time with us out of your busy Days! |
| 11:49 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
| 11:49 | FXstreet.com: Forex Trading Today by Tim Salem (CVJ) |
| 11:49 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi guest, we still have 15 minutes till first one, in England! |
| 11:50 | Valeria Bednarik: and another other and a half for europe rates |
| 11:50 | Will the BoE cut the bench mark interest rate? Yes, the BoE will cut it by 25bps to 0.25%. ( 9% ) ( 0% ) ( 82% ) ( 0% ) ( 9% ) |
| 11:50 | Tim Salem: Now... keep in mind that All THREE... the BoE, ECB, and later today...The Bank of Canada, are all expected to Hold Rates.... So our Keys and Focus will be Policy Contingencies on where they go from here!... |
| 11:50 | [Comment From DUKUN FOREX] Hello everybody |
| 11:50 | [Comment From AdyB] so does this mean ... the market will remain flat ? |
| 11:51 | Valeria Bednarik: Ho AdyB I don't expect much reaccions on Gbp, regarding rates, more due to political woes regarding European Parlament changes. |
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| 11:51 | Valeria Bednarik: besides, in England, the minutes will be publish in about 2 weeks. |
| 11:52 | Tim Salem: Hi AdyB... Yes...you will see "muted" and "quiet" Price action as we move forward until the Decisions... as Institutions Re-Position for any changes they hear in Rhetoric and Policy. |
| 11:52 | Valeria Bednarik: However in Europe, Trichet speech as always, could bring some surprises |
| 11:52 | [Comment From Guest] How do you think this will effect the Euro/USD? |
| 11:53 | Tim Salem: Val is 100% Correct here... Trichet's Press Conference is ALWAYS the Leader of the ECB Policy here.... |
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| 11:53 | [Comment From Guest] hi Valeria if 1.6450 Breakss? does it go to 1.6600 |
| 11:54 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi guest! I rather see stronger resistance aroun 1.6490.. that'st the level to watch to see Gbp rise again |
| 11:55 | Tim Salem: Guest...If they Hold which they are expected to do... any Commentary on expanding the Q.E. Program will be Bearish for the Euro as they Pump Funds and Liquidity into the System... but remember... The ECB is notoriously Stubborn in their Stance...of a "wait and See" Policy. |
| 11:55 | [Comment From Guest] Will confirmation make the euro go up? |
| 11:55 | [Comment From DUKUN FOREX] Do you think EUR/USD could break 1.4340 level by today ? |
| 11:55 | FXstreet.com: 4 minutes to go |
| 11:56 | Tim Salem: Dukun...I do in the near-Term... dependent on Trichet's Commentary... as this is a little Wide immediately after the Decision.... |
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| 11:57 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Dunkun, I believe key support for euro is closer to 1.4100, while, 1.4340 is a bit to far to be broken today. |
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| 11:57 | [Comment From miqglen] The cable keep rate, where will go? |
| 11:57 | [Comment From Ahmar] Tim, Where do you see the trend for gbp and euro heading? |
| 11:57 | Tim Salem: I would be Mindful of 1.41 Static Support to 1.40...before 1.4340's/1.4400..... |
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| 11:57 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
| 11:58 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi miqglen! Gbp is quite bullish so, above the mentioned level, there are good chances of continuation |
| 11:58 | [Comment From shoora] hi, do you think the range of price oscillations in EUR/USD and GBP/USD will exceed 200 pips? |
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| 11:59 | Tim Salem: Ahmar... Both Units are Bullish on the larger Views.... Remember... retracements are neccessary and needed at this point... but we can feasibly see 1.45 in Euro and 1.70 in Cable with relative ease..... in the Mid-Term...... So out Trends here are certainly not out of Steam..... |
| 11:59 | Valeria Bednarik: Not for me, really, what about you Tim? Market will remain a but cautious ahead of Wall Street and tomorrows Payrolls |
| 11:59 | [Comment From Alex] Hi Valeria/Tim, with BOE expected to hold rates and also no further additional QE measures, this will mean bullish for GBP? |
| 12:00 | FXstreet.com: the BoE has decided to hold the ongoing benchmark rates at 0.50% |
| 12:00 | Valeria Bednarik: As Tim has just mentioned, both currencies are bullish.. as long as key supports longer term ones, remain intact. we coudl see some corrective moovements to the downside but not much more |
| 12:00 | Tim Salem: Alex... Yes... as the BoE has Inflationary concerns largely "In Check" relatively speaking... and we have significant Strength there to Build upon... |
| 12:00 | [Comment From DUKUN FOREX] ok, thank you |
| 12:00 | [Comment From tomchain] trichet in europe? |
| 12:01 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes, later in Europe |
| 12:01 | FXstreet.com: The BoE has decided to hold the ongoing benchmark rates at 0.50% |
| 12:01 | Valeria Bednarik: Ok! rates on hold, and Gbp at 1.6390 |
| 12:01 | Tim Salem: 125B Pounds of Assets to be bought in 2 months from the BoE as Rates are Held.... |
| 12:01 | Valeria Bednarik: Not much of a reaction yet slightly bullish |
| 12:01 | [Comment From Guest] Many are mentioning 1.47 as target, how do you view this? |
| 12:02 | Valeria Bednarik: Above previous high, seems likely. |
| 12:02 | Tim Salem: Now.. watch your 1.6420's Resistance Area here for any DELAYED movement.... |
| 12:02 | Valeria Bednarik: as is close to the 61.8% retracement of the weekly fall 1.6018/1.2330 |
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| 12:02 | [Comment From phil] watch for a big retracement on eur usd below 1.40 |
| 12:02 | FXstreet.com: Forex Trading Today by Tim Salem (CVJ) |
| 12:03 | Tim Salem: We do have a Bull Flag Formation here on the Hourly that may wish to Complete and Breach th towards the 1.6450's in the Immediate-Term..... |
| 12:03 | Valeria Bednarik: yes Phil, big retracement, aproaching to 1.3500 area, could well happen under 1.4000 zone |
| 12:03 | [Comment From Ali] Don't you think EUR will give 100-200 pips correction in a day or two given bearish divergence on MACD on 4 hr charts?? |
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| 12:04 | Valeria Bednarik: Ali, I see a strong really strong bullish trend. or better said, dollar bearish momentum. |
| 12:04 | Valeria Bednarik: As Tim mentioned, corrections are due to come after this long movements, so, wait bor break of important support zones |
| 12:05 | [Comment From sumit kumar ram] what do think about gbp/usd and gbp/jpy |
| 12:05 | Will the ECB low the bench mark interest rate? Yes, the ECB will cut it by 25bps ( 13% ) ( 3% ) ( 10% ) ( 70% ) ( 0% ) ( 3% ) |
| 12:05 | Tim Salem: Ali..It cetainly can... but again.. this Directionality will largely rest on Trichet's Views on addtional Quantitative Easing Concerns and Activity..... Technical Divergence is certainly merited here... but in this Climate... Macro0Rhetoric will take Precedence.... |
| 12:05 | [Comment From ifxworld] With solid divergence signals appearing in most USD crosses, also hovering in oversold levels, clear EUR/USD 4-hour Head & Shoulder formation, are you seeing some possible dollar bullish bias behind the release? |
| 12:06 | Tim Salem: The Yen Crosses still look to correct Across The Board here... so watch the U.S. Equities markets for Correlating Activity there... The Dow and The S&P.... |
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| 12:07 | Valeria Bednarik: You are right IFXworld, as we mention we have dollar over sold across the board, and nice divergences |
| 12:07 | FXstreet.com: The BoE leaves the bench mark rate unchanged at 0.50% |
| 12:07 | Valeria Bednarik: And expecting due corrections, still no signlas on that. |
| 12:08 | Valeria Bednarik: Being over sold, does not mean correction will begin right now. |
| 12:08 | Tim Salem: IFX... We have seen Dollar Strength to such an extent already... that another firece Downleg caused from Dollar Strength may not be quite as deep in the Immediate-Term.... Near-Term?.. Sure... I would favor it..... simply due to a larget macro-Correction as The Dollar and Yen both abosrb some of the Risk-Averseion that we may continue to see..... |
| 12:08 | Valeria Bednarik: better wait for some confirmation like mentioned break under 1.4100 in euro, or the 1.6230 zone for Gbp |
| 12:09 | [Comment From sumit kumar ram] hello |
| 12:09 | Tim Salem: Be Mindful though... that from an IntraDay Perspective...We are still locked in some larger Ranges on most Major Units... |
| 12:09 | [Comment From phil] this is what i'm watching Ali and i think after ECB this is likely to happen |
| 12:09 | [Comment From sumit kumar ram] so your mean gbp/usd up side |
| 12:09 | [Comment From siva] can we ytd highs in GBP\USD today? |
| 12:10 | Tim Salem: Cable may look towards the 1.6500 Handle...but not as a result of today's Data or Rhetoric, Kumar.... |
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| 12:11 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Siva, yes I expect gbp to rise a bit, at least, from a technical perspective, 4 hours charts are pretty bullish. 20 SMA AROUND 1.6420 is our first resistance from actual price. Clear break or confirmation above, will trigger some upside momentum there |
| 12:12 | Valeria Bednarik: Market remains quiet after first spike.. majors are consolidating not much to add, but I see euro a bit bearish than GBP, |
| 12:12 | Tim Salem: In the Immediate-Term... watch for the then return to the Dynamic Support at the 1.6260's.... We may simply hover in this Range here... Val's 1.6420's Resistance...to my 1.6260's Support... as we are still in a minor Range there..... |
| 12:12 | [Comment From miqglen] CVJ, Val, your opinion for Usd Vs Swiss in daily chart. Can USD reverse in few next days |
| 12:13 | Valeria Bednarik: We have been talking about that for days. as Swissy is higly related with gold prices, and gold aproachead to 1000, swissy strength. |
| 12:14 | Valeria Bednarik: Despite pair should correct, to be honest, I still don't see clear signals of reversion, and I rather wait for a retest of the 1.0550 zone... or a break above 1.0800 to attemp longer term trades to the upside. |
| 12:14 | [Comment From mike] hello,do you think eurusd could go back to the 1.30's in the near term as a part of a correction? |
| 12:15 | Tim Salem: Miqglen..Indeed!...In my persoanl View... due to the Directional Flight of The Swissy... a decent Correctin for the Unit is due there.... Seeing such Swiss Strength against The Dollar is not too common...and we have significant Basing and Consolidation on the Pair...so certainly something to be Mindful of..... Watch for additional deeper Corrections in Gold for a Time Cycle on a potential Swissy Turn..... |
| 12:15 | [Comment From phil] we are approaching sell off euro/usd zone ... |
| 12:16 | Valeria Bednarik: yes phil! smaller time frames show the pair oversold, should rebound a bit to the upside, at least in this first attempt |
| 12:16 | [Comment From Guest] GBP is down now could it touch 1.6300 |
| 12:16 | Tim Salem: Mike... You sound like a Longer-Term Person after my own heart... hee hee..... I do... Of course know one knows for sure... But The Euro falling to the 1.30's by the 4th Quarter of the year would not be surprising at all..... |
| 12:17 | [Comment From phil] hey mike i'm conviced eur/usd will trade back to 1.30 area within next couple of month |
| 12:17 | [Comment From mike] thanks . |
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| 12:18 | Tim Salem: The macro-Strength of both The Euro and The Queen will rest upon the Continuation of "consistent" Data Point improvement.... as Inflationary and Deflationary Concerns come into View with all of these Printing Presses running 24/7 all of the World...... |
| 12:18 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Guess! not yet... we could see some choppy movements till ECB's |
| 12:19 | [Comment From Guest] This sell-off of the euro is a buying opportunity |
| 12:19 | Valeria Bednarik: Short term no doubts.. already did rebounded |
| 12:19 | [Comment From siva] if non-form payrolls data shows positive then dollar will get weak or strong? |
| 12:20 | Tim Salem: Yes Guest... same with Cable...If you are a Trend Trader...then you will look for the Corrections as Buying UOpportunities to be in concert with these Trends..... |
| 12:20 | Valeria Bednarik: Siva, US positive data, is pushing stocks and futures highers, and that is pushing high yieldings up. good US data, will made dollar fall more likely |
| 12:20 | [Comment From mike] strong eur may be a concern for eurozone recovery,I guess |
| 12:21 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes mike, i believe the same. Still we cannot deny current trend. As we have been saying, downside movements remain as corrections.. |
| 12:21 | [Comment From petrick] what is your comment on the usd/chf? has it hit the bottom yet? |
| 12:21 | Tim Salem: Siva... a Double-Agent Question... as it is Counter-Intuitive... It will deopend on the Numbers INSIDE the Headline Numbers.... as NFP Consensus looks a bit better than last month... but this "counter-Intuition" will more than likely be Dollar Negative... |
| 12:21 | [Comment From EuroBull] Thank you Tim |
| 12:22 | Valeria Bednarik: Petrick, look above, we already comment that. |
| 12:22 | [Comment From HARI] hi Valeria, what about USD/YEN? |
| 12:22 | [Comment From mohd] DO you think that a break down 1.4100 is sell zone for EURUSD |
| 12:22 | Tim Salem: The Old Days of "normal" NFP Data from 2005 and 2006 are long gone... a completely different Set of Criteria these recent Months to be aware of.... |
| 12:23 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
| 12:23 | FXstreet.com: Forex Trading Today by Tim Salem (CVJ) |
| 12:23 | Tim Salem: mohd... Very possible there... but watch for the Hourly 200SMA and Support Confluence at the 1.4060's to Hold..... |
| 12:24 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Hari! dolar yen is in awide range, not to clear at this point. Longer time frames look bearish, yet pair has broke to the upside a 4 hours descendnat line. I see a key resistance at 97.20 zone. If breaks above, we have some chances to see it rising further to the 98.50 zone. |
| 12:24 | Valeria Bednarik: And even there, we will still be inside the wide range |
| 12:24 | [Comment From mike] thanks...... |
| 12:25 | Valeria Bednarik: On the other hand, break under 93.00, will confirm the falling trend, yet seems too far today, and pair has reboundend heavily from lows. |
| 12:25 | [Comment From EuroBull] How do you see AUD/JPY? |
| 12:26 | [Comment From mohd] thanks Tim |
| 12:26 | [Comment From Guest] hi Valeria, would like to ask how far do u think eur/usd will drop till after the ECB has released the decision? |
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| 12:27 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi guest! i don't expect it tobreak under 1.4100 usually majors don't break key supports in this moments before the release |
| 12:27 | [Comment From indian] There will be huge corrections in EURO and GBP. The current time is to remain awake, watch the markets as big opportunities are coming to make a lot of money. |
| 12:28 | Tim Salem: EB... Aussie Yen is hovering right on Dynamic Support at the 77.40's... as you have a nice Hourly Bar Flag there... Watch for the Consolidation-Break...as 76.15 is in Sight... and Sentiment is Bearish in Favor.... as is the case with all the Major Yen Crosses.... |
| 12:28 | Valeria Bednarik: Is a view Indian, no doubts. |
| 12:28 | [Comment From bijay] what about gbp/jpy.....any sign of shorts,,,,,,?????. |
| 12:28 | Tim Salem: EuroBull... Bear.... not Bar.... sorry for the mis-spelling... ;-) |
| 12:28 | [Comment From nagalla] what will happen if ECB cuts rates surprisingly and hike QE? |
| 12:30 | Valeria Bednarik: Nagalla, last cuts have send Euro to the upside in the intraday, and back down next days. Previous reactions don't guarantee future ones, but seems likely to be repeated today |
| 12:30 | [Comment From jimmy] eur/usd sure to hit 1.6 soon |
| 12:30 | Valeria Bednarik: Seems a bit too much for me Jimmy.. but well, is an opinion. |
| 12:30 | [Comment From sumit kumar ram] yes am indian |
| 12:30 | [Comment From shoora] what do you think of Dr. Sivaraman's post about the expected moves in Euro and Pound before and after the data release? |
| 12:30 | Tim Salem: Bijay... Pound Yen shorts will favor waiting for at least Contact with the 160.50's Static Resistance... as you need the ATR of the Unit to pull you out of the 154.60's - 159.20's Range..... So be Patient... especially with my "Girlfriend", Pound Yen....  |
| 12:32 | Valeria Bednarik: Sorry Shoora, I dont' read today's post! but you should ask him. |
| 12:32 | [Comment From Alex] i think ECB will maintain rates but will hike QE which will be bearish for EURUSD... |
| 12:32 | [Comment From FXMau] Why USDCAD is rising ahead ECB? |
| 12:32 | [Comment From mike] nagalla,i think eur will plummet |
| 12:34 | Valeria Bednarik: FXMau, Cad had run big dollowing oil prices. I see this just as a correction to the overextend rally to the downside. |
| 12:34 | [Comment From INDIAN] The pain of the fall in USD was there Yesterday and on Monday, I am acquiring more positions and we hope that many people must have taken this fall as an opportunity of buying. Those who wanted to buy USD,shouldn't miss current price because according me you are getting dollar at free and you may not see this price again in the next 6 months to come. |
| 12:34 | Tim Salem: Alex... I am in personal Agreement with you... We know the "stubborn" and independent Naute of the ECB...and now they are having to deal with coming late to the "QE Party" without a Gift..... The Eu does not see the glimpses of Data Stabilization that even the UK does... So these Subjects will be approached by Trichet..in my personal view... or at least Should be... |
| 12:35 | [Comment From EuroBull] I say buy all the Euros you can... |
| 12:35 | [Comment From EuroBull] s set much much higher. |
| 12:35 | [Comment From Guest] how many pips trading range are days of such important announcements? |
| 12:36 | [Comment From EuroBull] Thank you Tim, for Aud/JPY |
| 12:36 | [Comment From D] what is the pip range of euro usd on these kind of annoucnements |
| 12:36 | [Comment From bijay] thanks.... |
| 12:36 | [Comment From Oliver] how long before ecb rate decision? |
| 12:36 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Oliver! 10 minutes I believe. |
| 12:36 | [Comment From bijay] waiting for 160 in gbp/jpy....... |
| 12:36 | FXstreet.com: 8 minutes to go |
| 12:37 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi bijay, I believe tim already talk about that look up. |
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| 12:37 | [Comment From EuroBull] the ECB is without a doubt finished with the cutting cycle |
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| 12:38 | Valeria Bednarik: Euro bull, we will know in 6 minutes.. |
| 12:38 | [Comment From john] how should i trade the GBP/USD pair given that the BOE rates remain? it seems that the GBP/USD going long at the moment.. |
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| 12:38 | Tim Salem: Guest... It really depends on where Price Action has been previously... Use your Atr Tools on your Platforms to get a Gauge on the Average True Ranges we are currently in... Remember... with Data.... IRREGARDLESS of how massive and turbulent the Data and Number come out to be... in MOST CASES... Price will remain and fall or rise back into that SAME RANGE... in the same way a Football Game has "Boundaries" of the Playing Field.... |
| 12:39 | Valeria Bednarik: John, yes is what we are talking about. pair is bullish. Take your time, don't act at first spikes... gave market a couple of minutes to settle down. |
| 12:39 | Valeria Bednarik: watch fro break above 1.6420 from here to attempt any bull there at least. |
| 12:39 | [Comment From EuroBull] The euro is the first option out of the dollar. Of course, this is long term. |
| 12:39 | [Comment From Alex] the key will be Trichet's speech... |
| 12:40 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes Alex, is likely thus some reaction to rate could be seen. |
| 12:40 | [Comment From oliver] thanks |
| 12:40 | [Comment From nagalla] recently usdix breaks bellow 200 dma, can we expect bullich trend in majors as long as usdix holds that moving average? |
| 12:41 | Tim Salem: Yes.... Remember... He is not called, "Tricky Trichet" for nothing.... and all of my humor aside there... Trichet is the most Astute Central Banker out there right now..... |
| 12:41 | [Comment From zaphy] the cable is appreciating nicely...can the ECB decision effect it seriously? |
| 12:42 | Valeria Bednarik: Zaphy, yes could bring some "noise" to Gbp. But trend is there, and set to continue. So supportive trend movements are likely to be stronger thancounter ones today |
| 12:43 | [Comment From EuroBull] Alex, where are you from? |
| 12:43 | [Comment From EuroBull] want to keep in touch over msn/skype? |
| 12:43 | [Comment From vt] pound is pretty stable after the announcement |
| 12:43 | Tim Salem: Nagalla!... A fine Question!... The Index is the most CONSISTENT Leading Indicator of Dollar Strength and Activity.... and as long as we Consolidate arounf the 200 there... then conversely... most Majors will continue to as well.... We need to see Outliers on either/or..... on The Index or on The Majors... to see expected and.or Pending Breaks to new Levels.... |
| 12:43 | [Comment From Tarun] hello tim and valeria...!! will euro and gbp bounce back today to 1.4400 and 1.660 respectively against USD ? |
| 12:44 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Tarun, welcome back! |
| 12:44 | [Comment From vt] will the ECB decision affect the pound by alot? |
| 12:44 | Tim Salem: Tarun... I would consider those Levels to be Outliers...and unlikely for today... Remember... You are up against Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow... so Macro-Muted Price Action will continue to Rule The Day...... |
| 12:45 | [Comment From Dr. Rob] Hi. For a position trader where do you see the real value for cable? Around 1.68, 1.79, or maybe higher around 2.0 as in before the crisis? |
| 12:45 | Valeria Bednarik: VT, as long as ECB decidsion trigger Euro up, will also pe pound supportive, and could affect it enough. 1 minute to go!
|
| 12:46 | FXstreet.com: The ECB leaves the bench mark rate unchanged at 1.00%. |
| 12:46 | Valeria Bednarik: NO CHANGE... |
| 12:46 | Tim Salem: Dr. Rob... In my personal View... 1.7240's in Cable is a Key Level of Resistance to be Mindful of as you look out on your Position Work.... |
| 12:46 | Valeria Bednarik: Not much of a reaction yet, as market will be waiting for Trichet. |
| 12:47 | [Comment From EuroBull] euro has rebounded... |
| 12:47 | [Comment From Alex] Eurobull, i'm from Malaysia. You? |
| 12:47 | [Comment From Tarun] and do you guys expecting any trend reversal from next week ? thanks a lot valeria n tim !!! |
| 12:48 | Valeria Bednarik: Tarun, i do expect some corrections, or retracements, not trend reversals at sight yet. and could start now, with euro under 1.4100 |
| 12:48 | [Comment From Guest] will euro appreciate or depreciate by this? |
| 12:48 | [Comment From micky] will euro fall by this |
| 12:48 | Valeria Bednarik: Still, we are not under support, and no confirmations here.. just choppy jumps till speech |
| 12:49 | [Comment From Hemport] Tim, new on here but watching forex prior to entering trading. Question....i have seen some comments we will see the pound rise to $1.74/5 what do you guys think? |
| 12:49 | [Comment From Nick] hello |
| 12:49 | [Comment From Anthony] It seems that almost everyone is universally a dollar bear... probably the most extreme I have ever seen... when the reversal occurs, it may be brutal. |
| 12:49 | FXstreet.com: The ECB leaves the bench mark rate unchanged at 1.00%. |
| 12:50 | Tim Salem: Tarun...It will rest largely on getting through NFP for any unusual Surprises.... but Institutional Re-Postitioning and Covering Long Positions will likely bring some Pressure on the Majors...as we have been seeing Overall with Dollar and Yen Strength. Remember... The Big Boys play The Major Factor here... and when they leave for the Weekend to fuel up the Yachts.... You will see Units Fall or Rise as those Funds are taken off of the Table..... |
| 12:50 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Anthony, is not as hard as you believe, and still majors have room to go, but yes, as brutal the rise, as brutal the later reversal when it happens.. |
| 12:50 | Valeria Bednarik: at least for me! |
| 12:50 | [Comment From Dimitris] hello tim and valeria, do you bellieve Trichet will trigger eur/usd to a new high ? |
| 12:50 | [Comment From EuroBull] Alex, I am from Germany |
| 12:50 | [Comment From Ray] Thanks Val and Tim for your insights, you make a good team. |
| 12:51 | Valeria Bednarik: tks Ray! we try! |
| 12:51 | [Comment From vt] Anthony, i'm actually looking for the dollar to rise soon...its been a long way down.. |
| 12:51 | [Comment From micky] so will euro fall down by this |
| 12:51 | FXstreet.com: Trichet speech is scheduled at 12:30 GMT. Here you can watch it at http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html |
| 12:52 | Tim Salem: Dmitiris...as we have discussed earlier... Trichet needs to deal with Quanitative Easing Rhetoric... and if it is Solid... this will be Bearish for the Euro in the Immediate-Term..... It will depend on his Commentary on how the ECB is shaping Policy moving forward..... |
| 12:52 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
| 12:52 | FXstreet.com: Forex Trading Today by Tim Salem (CVJ) |
| 12:52 | Valeria Bednarik: Micky, euro is closer to a strong support than to any key upside resistance. That's not telling us it will fall, but if breaks under, i believe the pair will gain some downside momentum, yes |
| 12:52 | [Comment From mohd] do you think that EURUSD bearish is is just a bay opportunity for short terms |
| 12:53 | [Comment From vt] Tim or Valeria what do you think about the longer term out look for the dollar? |
| 12:53 | [Comment From Raj] Hello |
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| 12:55 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi mohd, rather wait for confirmations,if 1.4100 holds, yes.. bullsih trend will remain intact. |
| 12:55 | [Comment From trickster] what time will the speech occur? |
| 12:55 | Valeria Bednarik: trickster 30 minutes to begin |
| 12:55 | [Comment From Alex] Eurobull, we can keep in touch via Skype, but time difference mate :-) Send me yr invite - alex.lee.kok.chye |
| 12:56 | FXstreet.com: FXstreet.com: Trichet speech is scheduled at 12:30 GMT. Here you can watch it at http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html |
| 12:56 | [Comment From stfx] hi , where u see major equity markets both US and europen after the unchange rate decisions, thanks. |
| 12:56 | Tim Salem: VT... Out on the Macro-Mid-Term... My personal View is we will see Dollar Weakness moving forward...for several Factors which are too deep to get into here..... But for the sake of Clarity... This past year of Dollar and Yen Strength has been purely Fear-Based Correction...and not based on sound healthy Fundamentals out of the U.S..... Our Global Crisi has eclipsed all "normal" Economic Criteria..so we look for Safety... or Fly to opportunity. Gold is the Epitomy of this..... |
| 12:57 | [Comment From Raj] euro may come down upto 1.4070 |
| 12:57 | Valeria Bednarik: there it is raj! some downside acceleration ! |
| 12:58 | Valeria Bednarik: GBP fell 200 pips in 15 minutes! |
| 12:59 | Tim Salem: stfx.. ...Global Equity Futures are lagely "Flat"...and will remain this way through tomorrow until NFP provides a Catalyst in either Direction. Watch as The Exchanges and Indices work and flow around the World... largely Muted Price Action will be present until tomorrow... in the general sense..... |
| 12:59 | Valeria Bednarik: Ok, acceleration favoring greenback across the board, mayors break supp/ressitance levels, and accelerate |
| 1:00 | [Comment From Tarun] valeria, can you please let me know the support and resistance levels for eur and gbp against usd for this week |
| 1:01 | Tim Salem: Now... Euro snaps to the 200SMA with Delayed reaction to the Unchanged Decision... Why is that?", you may ask....... |
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| 1:01 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi tarum yes! 1.6110 from here first, followed by strong 1.6000 under that.1.5830 38.2% of daily rally seems a nice target |
| 1:01 | FXstreet.com: International Traders Conference 2009 – October 14-16 - Barcelona (Spain) |
| 1:02 | Valeria Bednarik: 1.6240, 1.6290 and 1.6400 to the upside. |
| 1:02 | [Comment From Lef] Hello. Since PPP for Eur/Usd is about 1.12, why the pair is for so long 3000 pips overvalued? |
| 1:02 | Tim Salem: Tis is a perfect Example of the Institutional Re-Positioning I spoke of earlier and speak of on The Blog all the time... Just like You and Me.... Institutions want the "Wal-Mart" Price for more attractive levels of Buying Power... |
| 1:03 | [Comment From Dimitris] in your opinion, which is the key level for the reversal on eur/usd |
| 1:03 | Valeria Bednarik: Dimitris, under 1.4000 |
| 1:03 | [Comment From hello from yasir] will u pls tell me what u think about german dax? |
| 1:03 | [Comment From stfx] and for Dollar Index and Equity markets form unchanged decision |
| 1:04 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
| 1:04 | FXstreet.com: Forex Trading Today by Tim Salem (CVJ) |
| 1:04 | Tim Salem: Lef... this is largely due to the macro-Dollar weakness throughout the year and is NOT Fear-Based Buying of the Euro.... but Far-Based SELLING of The Dollar!... PPP will not adjust for Macro-Sentiment... The Human Factor, if you will..... |
| 1:04 | FXstreet.com: Trichet speech is scheduled at 12:30 GMT. Here you can watch it at http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html |
| 1:05 | Valeria Bednarik: Stocks remain quite positive, and tending higher. no much reaction there with this decision, I still see them bullish. |
| 1:05 | [Comment From mohd] Tim Salem and Valeria Bednarik thanks for this coverage ::::::::: forgive me because I am not so good in English |
| 1:05 | Valeria Bednarik: no problem mohd! english is not my language too.. |
| 1:05 | [Comment From Nick] a few months ago we saw a spike in eur dollar might happen again |
| 1:05 | [Comment From Ray] EURO HAS BROKEN 1.41 SUPPORT |
| 1:06 | Valeria Bednarik: Seems not Nick! sorry Ray, we have some delay here. |
| 1:06 | [Comment From min] why the drop in gbp? |
| 1:06 | [Comment From john] wow... GBP/USD has fallen by so much.. what's happening?? |
| 1:06 | Tim Salem: Indeed...and remember the 1.4060's Dynamic Support we spoke of an Hour ago???... There we are..... |
| 1:07 | [Comment From mike] eur couldn't hold 1.4100 and trichet has not say a word yet,Ithink eurusd @ 1.3750 soon |
| 1:07 | [Comment From su25] how is gbp/jpy going to be affected? for that matter, all yen croses? |
| 1:07 | [Comment From petrick] may i ask what is your view on the usd/chf?? what is the next resistance?? |
| 1:08 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Petrick! above recent high, 1.0810 zone |
| 1:08 | [Comment From neo] eurusd long or short now? |
| 1:08 | [Comment From Nick] we are at the end of the channel eur usd |
| 1:09 | Tim Salem: Hi su!... Yes... watch for the Yen Crosses to absorb some of the "Bleedout" from the Majors-Cousins... as the weak Euro and OPOund we are seeing will be picked up by their repsetive Cross.... so expect a bit more Consolidation and "smaller" Movements on the Crosses... |
| 1:09 | Valeria Bednarik: Neo, no time to place your bets, till all this noice is over.. wait just 30 minutes... and let market settle down...then take a decsion |
| 1:09 | [Comment From su25] CVJ - eur/usd hrly - is that a H&S pattern? |
| 1:09 | FXstreet.com: International Traders Conference 2009 – October 14-16 - Barcelona (Spain) |
| 1:09 | [Comment From Raj] euro range 1.4064 to 1.4166 |
| 1:10 | Valeria Bednarik: yes Raj, that's why I rather wait.. |
| 1:10 | FXstreet.com: Trichet speech is scheduled at 12:30 GMT. Here you can watch it at http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html |
| 1:10 | [Comment From alex] valeria whats wrong with opening a simaltaneous buy and sell position on the same currency pair? I find it works very well with my demo account. Ive been making a very stress free profit these months |
| 1:11 | Tim Salem: Su... Welll you know me... too short a Time-Cyle for such a Pattern..but neverthe less... It IS functioning as a H&s... BUT... the CRUCial aspect there is it need to snap the Hourly 200SMA/ Support Confluence at 1.4060... otherwise... just Negate the Formation all together....... |
| 1:11 | [Comment From Nick] i just bought eur usd we are at the end of the channel so and i have small stops so |
| 1:11 | [Comment From Dr. Rob] The bearish USD is doing wonders for US exports, a vital part of recovery and covering trade gaps. Personal opinion good news out of Europe combined with US willingness for a weaker dollar will challenge all technicals for a while since this is not a time for "normal" market conditions |
| 1:12 | [Comment From Jon] gbp move on rumour Gordon Brown resigns |
| 1:12 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Alex! hedging is not today's subject, but the NFA idea, i guess points to avoid freeze capital losses in managed accounts.. we can talk about it outside here if you please |
| 1:12 | Valeria Bednarik: Tks Jon for that! |
| 1:13 | Valeria Bednarik: Ok Nick! as long as you use stops, you will be ok! |
| 1:13 | [Comment From Guest] Why is the spread on the EUR/USD so big right now?? |
| 1:14 | Valeria Bednarik: That's depend on your broker guess... not all offer the same conditions. but is due to high volatilitly and lot of people tending to trade it.. |
| 1:14 | [Ad] | Trade with VT Trader™ Web from your web browser. View |
| 1:14 | [Comment From Alex] drop is GBP due to unconfirmed reports that UK PM Brown has resigned!! |
| 1:14 | Valeria Bednarik: TKS ALEX!!!! |
| 1:14 | Tim Salem: Dr, Rob... A deeply Astute Observation...as you are 100% Correct. Classic and textbook Technicals will always vary and have some difficulties in these types of Climates... bcause our current Climate is not Technically-Based... or really even Fundamnetally-Driven..... but Driven on Fear and Hope. So we continually rotate from Risk Appetite to Risk Aversion..... although I will say Techs on the Lonfger-Term Views are always more Valid in this Climate than say... on a 15M Time-Cycle..... |
| 1:14 | [Comment From min] GBP is dropping fast. News wires say UK PM Gordon brown has resigned. |
| 1:16 | Valeria Bednarik: ok dow jones is saying that the resign is a "complete nonsense" so no resing from Mr Brown |
| 1:16 | Valeria Bednarik: seem to have been a rumour. |
| 1:16 | [Comment From alex] hi |
| 1:16 | Tim Salem: Min... and also saying the resignation is "Complete Nonsense".... but of course..for our Purposes as Traders... Information is Information... as it is the EXPECTATIONS that matter.... |
| 1:17 | [Comment From Guest] Euro range 1.36 to 1.40 |
| 1:17 | [Comment From Nick] yes nice money |
| 1:17 | [Comment From Jay Patel] GBP/USD shot up to 1.6225 after that massive fall - Does anyone know why the fall and fast rise |
| 1:17 | [Comment From john] hi valeria.. thank you for your advice... patience is the key... |
| 1:18 | Valeria Bednarik: Tks John |
| 1:18 | [Comment From Adam] Why is the EUR/USD spread so big?? I've never seen it that big... |
| 1:18 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
| 1:18 | FXstreet.com: Forex Trading Today by Tim Salem (CVJ) |
| 1:18 | Valeria Bednarik: I believe i answer that a bit above. Sorry all but we have some delay receiving questions... |
| 1:19 | Tim Salem: Jay... Due to the "Rumors" of Gordon Brown's Resignation..... |
| 1:19 | [Comment From su25] UK Govt says Brown resignation rumour is "complete nonsense"!! |
| 1:19 | [Comment From Adam] (Sorry about the duplicate message about the EUR/USD spread - there is a huge delay for me so I thought the first one didn't go through...) |
| 1:20 | Valeria Bednarik: no problem Adam! we have that delay here too.. |
| 1:20 | [Comment From wiper] So, the gbp will move up again? |
| 1:20 | Tim Salem: Adam... You variable Spreads are due to "Expectant" Volatility..... This will largely depend on who you Broker with..... |
| 1:21 | Valeria Bednarik: Now we are about 10 minutes till trichet speech... so is a wait and see till is over... it usually make market jump 20 pips either direction after each sentence |
| 1:21 | [Comment From Ashish Patel] What level do you feel for Euro USD. After such repid fall, do you still believe bull thrend is intact? or it will move in 1.36 to 1.40 ? |
| 1:22 | Tim Salem: Now...The Pound is involved in what is largely a "Bull Trap"...or "Short Squeeze"... as Price tries to work Its way through that solid 1.6140's Support..... |
| 1:22 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Ashish! if breaks under low, I expect a quick 1.4000 for euro, still be cautious nothing is said and done yet. |
| 1:22 | Tim Salem: See the Wicks on both Sides?.... Euro and Dollar Battle it out there for Supremacy.... |
| 1:23 | [Comment From Nick] eur looks very bearish atm |
| 1:23 | Tim Salem: Sorry!...I mean Pound and Dollar... |
| 1:23 | [Comment From festus jeff] how can u say about the market rigth now |
| 1:24 | [Comment From Orville] lol its this market is a warzone.....(i'm new ^_^) |
| 1:24 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Festus right now, they will hold for Trichet's words. |
| 1:25 | [Comment From Guest] is there a possibility of further decline? |
| 1:25 | Tim Salem: Orville...Yes...in a way you are correct...We have a lot of Sentiment to deal with here.... |
| 1:25 | Valeria Bednarik: we have some reports both for USD and CAD in the next couple of minutes.... |
| 1:26 | [Comment From Ashish Patel] Thanks Valeria..in fact i sold Euro at 1.39. Will advise to hedge this position ? |
| 1:26 | FXstreet.com: The speech starts in 3 minutes. |
| 1:27 | Tim Salem: Yes... and To All.. check your Euro and Cable Prices... See how both are resting on clear and solid Dynamic Support?......THAT is what I mean by Institutional Re-Positioning....... Price Behavior like this just does not happen by Accident.... |
| 1:27 | Valeria Bednarik: hi Ashish, at least wait for the speech results, to be honest i'm not a big fan of hedging.. but at least protect your capital |
| 1:27 | [Comment From DS] Is aud/usd going further down ? |
| 1:27 | [Comment From Nick] better to wait a few more min :p |
| 1:28 | [Comment From f] hello. what do you make of move in eur.chf. will twill downtrend continue or will the snb step in? |
| 1:30 | Tim Salem: DS... In the case of The Aussie...look for the continual Retracement to the .7730's in the Mid-Term...We may not get that far... but Dollar Strength on the Correction appears not quite comlete as of yet.... |
| 1:30 | Valeria Bednarik: Eur/Chf seems to be in a consolidation stage. I dont see it bearish to be honest. yet abreak under 1.5000 could well trigger it down. At actual levels, more chances to the upside for me! |
| 1:30 | [Comment From NickB] DJIA Futures still holding so dont see any reason EU shouldnt bounce back here |
| 1:31 | FXstreet.com: US Jobless Claims -4K To 621K |
| 1:31 | Valeria Bednarik: Good point there nickB |
| 1:31 | Tim Salem: Now...Jobless Claims in the Mix...so watch your Levels we have been discussing for any Activity..... Slightly Positive... which may put additional Weight into Dollar Strength in the Immediate-Term..... |
| 1:32 | Valeria Bednarik: and there you have a reason...let's see how stocks react to unemployment levels. |
| 1:32 | [Comment From Nick] better be ready |
| 1:32 | [Comment From trickster] the trend is down short term at least i hope ;) |
| 1:32 | [Comment From festus jeff] do u believe euro&usd will go bullish later bcos i am already in the market on buy |
| 1:33 | Valeria Bednarik: Seems so festus! stocks are up a bit, and so risk appetite. Pair did not confirm break under level, and longer term trend remains bullsih |
| 1:33 | [Comment From Sun] I am short euro since 1.36 .. maybe will catch a move here... |
| 1:33 | [Comment From Faraz Javed] how far will gbp decline further? |
| 1:34 | [Comment From Faraz Javed] Valeria, what do you say of CHF? it has tested 755 level thrice!! |
| 1:36 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Faraz.. Pair remains bearish, if you look up, you will see I rather wait for a breal above 1.0800 to go bullish, or a fresh low at 1.0500 zone, as pair seems way overextend to the downside |
| 1:36 | FXstreet.com: Trichet says Economy to gradually recover in 2010 |
| 1:37 | Valeria Bednarik: And labor conditions continue to weaken in next months... and inflation anchored.. |
| 1:37 | [Comment From Redstar] anyone expects a correlating drop in equity markets coming in the next few days? |
| 1:37 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Redstar to be honest, not yet. |
| 1:37 | [Comment From f] thank you Valeria, i also feel that unless we see 1.5075/85, it is still in consolidation.... |
| 1:38 | [Comment From Guest] A huge fall is on the way from late today or early tomorrow in EURO and GBP. Plan your trades wisely, carefully and accordingly. |
| 1:38 | [Comment From zaphy] aren't we forgetting about the man himself :)??? |
| 1:39 | FXstreet.com: Sorry guys. We have just 10 minutes left. Dont miss a chance to ask Valerica and Tim! |
| 1:39 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
| 1:39 | FXstreet.com: Forex Trading Today by Tim Salem (CVJ) |
| 1:40 | Valeria Bednarik: Trichet comments are for me a bit eur positive for what i see, as he say's economy is stabilazing and slowdown easing |
| 1:40 | [Comment From vinesh] test |
| 1:41 | Tim Salem: Yes..that is the Key from Val right there..... Is his Commentary on the Scope of Quantitative Easing..... |
| 1:42 | [Comment From NOVICETRADER] HI , DO U SEE US $ AT BELOW 130 THIS YEAR?? |
| 1:42 | Valeria Bednarik: not below, but close for next Q. check up, Tim already answered that question |
| 1:42 | [Comment From titus] Hi, do you think strenght in USD against commodities currencies is a trend reversal or just a pullback? |
| 1:43 | [Comment From Vinesh] trichet was saying same thing las time the economy was improving and eur still fell |
| 1:44 | Valeria Bednarik: Vinesh, but regain the 1.4100...trend is strong still.. |
| 1:44 | Tim Salem: Titus... it is largely a Technical Correction within The Pacific Dollars of the Aussie and Kiwi...and Yhe Loonie for that matter... as The Metals Complex, China, and Crude Oil are providing solid Support for the Aussie, NZ, and Canadian Dollars.... |
| 1:45 | [Comment From Redstar] EUR support at 1.409 and GBP at 1.614? |
| 1:45 | Valeria Bednarik: Redstar, take a llok up Tim mentioned quite nice levels earlier |
| 1:46 | [Comment From zhonghua] anyone trading gold here? or is there some webpage like fxstreet for gold trade? thanks |
| 1:46 | [Comment From Guest] so vealerica, dose his speech favours bullish trend |
| 1:46 | [Comment From Orville] Valeria, Tim....thanks for your time and advive ^_^ |
| 1:47 | Tim Salem: Redstar.....It may be up there a bit as you Scroll.... 1.4060 on The Euro...and 1.6140 on Cable.... |
| 1:47 | Valeria Bednarik: Guest yes, seems still strong.. let's give it some minutes till trichet is over. |
| 1:47 | [Comment From titus] thanks for your answer Tim! |
| 1:47 | [Comment From Vinesh] if we get a daily close below that EU is toast imo |
| 1:47 | [Comment From Vinesh] its bearly staying above 1.41 |
| 1:48 | Valeria Bednarik: yes Vinesh what we have talking about earlier, better if under 1.4060 zone |
| 1:48 | [Comment From Redstar] Thank you! |
| 1:48 | [Comment From mike] di trichet say something about QE???????????????? |
| 1:48 | FXstreet.com: Sorry Guys, Time is up. I have to wrap up the coverage. |
| 1:49 | Tim Salem: Yes.. and for both of these Solid Supports on Euro and Cable... The Longer they rest... Remember... they are building and storing Energy here... so a Delayed Violation or Rejection at these levels is on the Way... They are fueling the Cars to take a Run at The Walls... to use another Analogy..... |
| 1:49 | Valeria Bednarik: Ok! so sorry we cannot continue! as always,a pleasure to share with Tim, and you all here! |
| 1:50 | Tim Salem: Indeed!... We certainly appreciate Everyone's Participation... as All of You are what makes these Sessions Informative and Exciting for All of Us!  |
| 1:51 | FXstreet.com: Thank you Valeria and Tim for the coverage, It has been great. |
| 1:51 | Valeria Bednarik: As usuall, my final worlds will be to consider the technical points we have been talking about. While Euro seems to be holding the downside pretty well, Gbp 200 pips lost seems more drastic. But at the end, both pairs remain bullish in the term. |
| 1:51 | FXstreet.com: Any every who has joined today... Thank you! |
| 1:52 | Valeria Bednarik: No signs of technical corrections have already been triggered. but as Vinesh said, today's close could well be helpul, Dont forget tomorrow's payroll in the U.S. great definition for the end of the week. |
| 1:52 | FXstreet.com: Thank you again, valeria, Tima and every one. I have had a really good time with you. |
| 1:52 | Tim Salem: In agreement with Val... Watch for Cable to pick up some Buying Builds as we move forward.... Just as The Big Boys left The Party..... They will be returning for more Participation to resume these Trends in the Near-Term...... |
| 1:53 | Valeria Bednarik: tks to you all!!! and Tks Fxstreet for giving us this space! |
| 1:53 | Valeria Bednarik: See you soon bye! |
| 1:53 | Tim Salem: We look forward to spending time with all of You again soon, and have a Fine Day in your own Work!..... Take Care! |
| 1:55 | FXstreet.com: Tomorrow we have the NFP live coverage with Nick at 12:00 GMT. I hope to see you all in the NFP coverage! |
| 1:56 | FXstreet.com: Bye for now! Adios! |
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