| FED Interest Rates Decission Live Coverage with Nick Nasad | (06/24/2009) |
| 6:57 | FXstreet.com: Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world.
Today's Fed Interest Rates Decison will start in 5 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Nick Nasad who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter.
He will be giving us a direct picture for the market status. |
| 6:57 | FXstreet.com: Nick Nasad is a currency market analyst with CMS Forex for the last 3 years. He closely monitors fundamental releases and reports their results and provides commentary to the company's clients through CMS Forex's interactive economic calendar Forex Capsule and through daily Forex market video recaps. He has also written extensive educational material on using technical analysis in trading Forex. |
| 6:57 | FXstreet.com: I am pleased to announce you that today’s sponsor is CMS Forex. |
| 6:57 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Hello everyone, and thank you fxstreet for having me on again |
| 6:57 | [Comment From DUKUN FOREX]
Hello |
| 6:58 | [Comment From nisar]
what do u think about the rate of |
| 6:59 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The Fed is getting ready to close out its meeting today, and it will be an interesting tight rope that policymakers are trying to achieve. On the one hand, they want to show that the economy is improving, at the other hand they want to temper expectations of an interest rate increase in the coming months |
| 7:00 | Nick Nasad - CMS: It seems that this is the consensus in the financial media, and so investors and traders will be looking for other clues, including any mentions of the quantitative easing programs that the Fed is currently conducting. |
| 7:01 | Nick Nasad - CMS: that means, any mentions of its $300 billion plan to buy Treasuries. |
| 7:01 | Nick Nasad - CMS: ok, lets take a poll of your expectations
|
| 7:02 | FXstreet.com: And what do you think about today's rates decission? Please, vote the poll! |
| 7:02 | Will the FOMC keep the benchmark rates?Yes, the FOMC will hold the ongoing rates No, they will hike it 25bps to 0.50% No, they will hike it by 50bps to 0.75%. No, they wiill hike it by 75bps to 1.00% No, they wiill hike it by 100bps to 1.25% |
| 7:03 | [Comment From Ylberi]
Hi Nick, I consider this period as consolidation, and expect no changes of interest rate for USD, following unchanged interest rate for EUR. What do you think, if the rate remains as it is now, will USD get stronger? |
| 7:04 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The rate is likely to remain the same, and the fed may point a more upbeat picture about growth which could help the greenback. |
| 7:05 | Nick Nasad - CMS: but if there is no new mention about the programs for Treasury and mortgage debt, then we may not see that big a reaction. |
| 7:05 | [Comment From arfan]
what is gbp buyer expected form fed announcement ? |
| 7:06 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The GBP/USD pair came up against strong resistance at the 1.66 level overnight, and receded from there. Looking at the month of June, you can see that its the third time that we have tested that level. The first time we had a strong move in favor of the greenback (beg of June), but the send test was followed by consolidation trading the past two weeks. |
| 7:07 | Nick Nasad - CMS: We had another test of resistance overnight, and the important thing to look for is what happens at that level. We may see a return back to test the support level from the past 2 weeks (near 1.62) if the pair is not able to extend its gains from yesterday and overnight. |
| 7:08 | [Comment From INDIAN]
Hi, Nasad ,how r u? what you expect EUR/USD after FED interest rates decission? |
| 7:10 | Nick Nasad - CMS: At this point, it depends whats in the statement. If the Fed statement stresses that interest rates will remain low through 2009 it could pressure the greenback |
| 7:10 | Nick Nasad - CMS: some of the greenback strength in the pair this month has been fed by the expectations that if the US returns to positive growth in the summer or fall, that the Fed will go ahead and hike rates. |
| 7:11 | Nick Nasad - CMS: but, I doubt that Fed members will want to take such a course until the recovery is under way. |
| 7:12 | Nick Nasad - CMS: we saw a very strong move in favor of the Euro yesterday, as risk sentiment improved from Monday's sell-off. |
| 7:12 | [Comment From Trader123]
are we going to see 1.70 got the gbp/usd in the coming week? |
| 7:13 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Following the run up in the GBP/USD from early March to the beginnign of June, this month has been one of consolidation. It may take time for investors and traders to break out of these ranges. Like I told the other questioner before, you will have to watch what happens at the 1.66 level in the coming sessions and week(s). |
| 7:16 | Nick Nasad - CMS: those 1.70 is a nice whole number, looking at a long term picture, (daily chart), 1.75 is more a visual resistance as it acted as support then turned resistance in October, and has not yet been retested. But again, in ranging conditions, you have to wait for a break-out of resistance. |
| 7:16 | [Comment From Guest]
So dollar can only strengthen or remain the same .. is there any chance of dollar weakening? |
| 7:16 | [Comment From Guest]
if they say that they will keep rayes steady at least in 2009, that will be reason enough for a usd selloff? |
| 7:17 | Nick Nasad - CMS: I think the more adamant the FED statement is in that regard (holding rates low for longer) the more chance the greenback weakens. |
| 7:18 | Nick Nasad - CMS: we have also had a 61.856 retracement of the upmove in the EUR/USD since yesterday low to today's high. |
| 7:18 | [Comment From INDIAN]
what is GREEN BACK, u mean? |
| 7:18 | Nick Nasad - CMS: greenback is another way to refer to the US Dollar. |
| 7:19 | [Comment From arfan]
how about inflation issue nick ? any comment how it affected to GBP ? |
| 7:19 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the greenback is gaining now against its rivals,.. FED holds rates steady. |
| 7:20 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the initial reaction is the greenback gaining on its rivals. |
| 7:21 | Nick Nasad - CMS: looking at the statement now. |
| 7:21 | FXstreet.com: Rates on hold! |
| 7:22 | Nick Nasad - CMS: "The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period." |
| 7:22 | Nick Nasad - CMS: "As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn." |
| 7:23 | Nick Nasad - CMS: this is a reiteration of their previous commitments |
| 7:24 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the beginning paragraph of the statement is a balance that says even though conditions are still difficult for households and businesses, that the pace of contraction is slowing, financial markets have improved, and that business are bringing inventory stocks back in line with sales.. |
| 7:25 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the move in favor of the greenback is then most likely a response to the FOMC nod to economic improvement. |
| 7:25 | [Comment From INDIAN]
what u mean about that statement, could u plz tell usd gain or not? |
| 7:25 | [Comment From EMEKA]
please...is this good or bad news short term? |
| 7:26 | Nick Nasad - CMS: its a mix of both for the greenback, and why you are not seeing strong moves in either direction. basically, the Fed has said it will keep rates low and its purchasing programs in place (2 things that are greenback negative), but also said that the economy is improving (dollar positive)., |
| 7:27 | Nick Nasad - CMS: those two factors are now being played out between dollar's bulls and bears, with the bias prior to the meeting in favor of the greenback. |
| 7:28 | Nick Nasad - CMS: directly after the release we hit new intra-day lows in teh EUR/USD and GBP/USD, as well as intra-day highs in the USD/JPY and USD/CAD, so right now the interpretation is dollar strength. |
| 7:29 | [Comment From EMEKA]
like you said....a steady would not affect the market but the statement would ....right? |
| 7:30 | Nick Nasad - CMS: yes, its seems that the statement has given the markets something to work with, with the overall reaction of greenback strength. |
| 7:31 | [Comment From mike]
has the usdchf bottomed with the SNB intervention?? |
| 7:31 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Mike, the EUR/CHF was definetly a big mover today, and the 1.50 level seems like the line in the sand for the SNB |
| 7:32 | Nick Nasad - CMS: I think they will continue to intervene as they feel that an appreciation of the Franc will lead to deflation pressures. |
| 7:33 | Nick Nasad - CMS: if you compare the rumored intervention on June 18th to today's you can see the SNB was much mroe aggressive. |
| 7:33 | Nick Nasad - CMS: US stocks are dipping lower, paring gains from earlier in the morning, which is also adding to greenback strength |
| 7:34 | [Comment From Guest]
dear Nick , as you can see today there was a big jump in USD/CHF do you think the gain will continue ?? |
| 7:34 | Nick Nasad - CMS: i hope my answer above answered you as well. |
| 7:34 | [Comment From shariq]
Hi Nick , could you give your view on eur/gbp |
| 7:35 | Nick Nasad - CMS: greenback gains are extending, as Dow Jones index falls into negative territory. |
| 7:36 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the Euro-Pound may be forming ranging conditions between 0.86 and 0.84. The pound gained today as bank stocks rose in London, which helped boost risk appetite for the Pound there. The Pound has made significant gains on the Euro the pasta several months, and it may be time for this pair to see some sideways consolidation movement. |
| 7:39 | Nick Nasad - CMS: another not from the statement is that compared to the last meeting, the Fed has eased its language regarding the risks of deflation. |
| 7:41 | FXstreet.com: Today's Sponsor is CMS Forex |
| 7:41 | Nick Nasad - CMS: another reason the greenback is gaining is that there were some expectations that the Fed may want to step up its purchases of Treasuries (in an attempt to lower mortgage rates). They kept to their original timetable.. |
| 7:42 | [Comment From arfan]
is the news bad for stock market, nick? |
| 7:44 | Nick Nasad - CMS: despite the better view of the economy, and the fact deflation concerns have seemed to recede, without direct mention that inflation is now a major concern, stocks may be responding to the lack of addition plans to stimulate credit markets or Treasury markets. Also, stocks were falling before hand after posting big gains in the morning.
|
| 7:44 | [Comment From Ashish Patel]
What is your view on JPY/USD? |
| 7:46 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The Dollar-Yen seems to be in a downtrend since hitting a high near 99 a couple of weeks ago. On the other hand we have very strong support at the 94 level. In a shorter look connecting the recent major highs since June 14th's high of 98.50, today's move tested that resistance. |
| 7:48 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The action this week may be a pause in the downmove seen since June 14th. Right now we are also testing a slightly upward sloping support turned resistance level from last Thursday/Monday |
| 7:49 | Nick Nasad - CMS: seems like the recent greenback gains may be short lived, but this pair has to be monitored to see how it reacts at those different trendline levels. |
| 7:49 | [Comment From FX Guy]
Hey Nick, do you think there's any chances of this USD strength carrying on for the rest of the week? |
| 7:52 | Nick Nasad - CMS: hard to say. It depends on the pair. Certain pairs like the GBP/USD and USD/JPY may continue to consolidate, while the action in the EUR/USD the past two sessions shows more volatility, though no clear indication of which way the pair may go next. Instead, investor sentiments will be key in driving markets the rest of the week. |
| 7:53 | Nick Nasad - CMS: There's not that much in the way of fundamental news the rest of this week as well., |
| 7:53 | [Comment From Guest]
but they said they diont have a line. strategy to take out stops from eur/chf bears? |
| 7:55 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Though they havn't said it, since beginning their intervention in March, the pair has not moved below 1.50, and the move last Thursday and today leads analysts to believe that that really is the level they are targeting. |
| 7:56 | [Comment From Anthony]
Which are the critical EURUSD resistance levels now? |
| 7:57 | FXstreet.com: Today's Live Coverage is sponsored bu CMS Forex |
| 7:57 | Nick Nasad - CMS: we saw last week that the 1.40 level was important resistance, but it was broken yesterday. above that look for today's high. |
| 7:58 | [Comment From Tarun]
hey hi nick, when can we confirm a trend change in EUR/USD and GBP/USD ? do we need to wait for US GDP for tomorrow ? |
| 8:00 | Nick Nasad - CMS: for the EUR/USD yesterday's break of a downward sloping line of restisnce, adn the move above 1.40, which had been acting as resistance, along with a higher major low can point to the end of the downmove since June started. However, today's strong gains for the greenback makes me cautious. if there is a test of the upward sloping line of support connecting those two major lows, its importnat to see how traders react there. |
| 8:01 | Nick Nasad - CMS: for the GBP/USD look for the pair to break either resistance at 1.66, or support at 1.62.. Otherwise this pair is trading in a sideways range. |
| 8:01 | [Comment From Ashish Patel]
Based on FED statement do you believe that it is more likely that FED increase the interest rate is last Querter of 09? If so will USD keep gaining compared to Euro? |
| 8:03 | Nick Nasad - CMS: It hard to gauge from their language alone, which remains the same as last statement. what to look for next is the fundamental data coming out regarding the health of the economy as well as inflation. If core inflation begins creeping up that may force the Fed's hand, otherwise they would like to see housing stabilize, a pickup in consumer spending, and that financial markets remains supported.
|
| 8:04 | Nick Nasad - CMS: ok, the next question will be my last, |
| 8:04 | [Comment From kabby]
what do you think wilhappen to the commodity market in the phase of things and considering what the FED said in the statement today |
| 8:07 | Nick Nasad - CMS: commodity markets will depend more on growth in emerging economies as China and others will begin showing growth faster than the developed economies. The Fed statement sees the US economy beginning to come around, so we can expect commodity prices to go higher as the global economy recovers. once safe-haven demand for the greenback dissipates, and if inflation becomes a major concern, then gold may see a strong rally, |
| 8:08 | Nick Nasad - CMS: OK, everyone, thank you for your questions and comments. |
| 8:09 | FXstreet.com: We have no more time today, Nick any final word?
|
| 8:09 | FXstreet.com: FXstreet.com organizes this year again the International Traders Conference 2009 – October 14-16 - Barcelona (Spain)
Book your seat before it's too late... This year seats are limited to 60! Don't wait too much!
Confirmed speakers so far are James Chen, Valeria Bednarik, Markus Heitkoetter, Ashraf Laidi, Andrei Pehar and Rob Booker! One more speaker to be confirmed soon! |
| 8:10 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Though the Fed statement stuck close to its wording from last month in regards to its purchase plans, the nod to an uptick in the economy, and easing of the deflation fears helped boost the greenback in the wake of the release. We shall see if these gains and dollar strength persist during the rest of the week. |
| 8:11 | FXstreet.com: Many thanks Nick and Thanks for our audience participation too. Today's event has been sponsored by CMS Forex |
| 8:11 | Nick Nasad - CMS: goodbye everyone |
| 8:12 | FXstreet.com: I Hope to see you all in tomorrow's GDP Live Coverage from FXstreet.com homepage. See you Tomorrow! |
| 8:13 | 
|
Disclaimer: Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Comments