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| US GDP Release Live Coverage with Nick Nasad | (08/27/2009) |
| 1:15 | FXstreet.com: Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. |
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| 1:17 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Hello all and welcome to today's live coverage |
| 1:18 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Today's GDP figure is expected to show a downward revision, with expectations for growth contracting 1.3 to 1.5%, compared to the previously reported 1.0% |
| 1:18 | FXstreet.com: Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's U.S. GDP Live Coverage will start in 5 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Nick Nasad who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. He will be giving us a direct picture for the market status. |
| 1:18 | FXstreet.com: Nick Nasad is a currency market analyst with CMS Forex for the last 3 years. He closely monitors fundamental releases and reports their results and provides commentary to the company's clients through CMS Forex's interactive economic calendar Forex Capsule and through daily Forex market video recaps. He has also written extensive educational material on using technical analysis in trading Forex. |
| 1:19 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Though a weaker 2nd quarter would theoretically weigh on overall global growth prospects the revision is mainly a result of companies and firms running down inventory even more than previously estimated. |
| 1:19 | Nick Nasad - CMS: that will set up a need for these firms to place new orders giving a boost to manufacturing in the US |
| 1:19 | [Comment From nagalla] it's nice to see u again nick....... |
| 1:19 | FXstreet.com: HI everyone! Let me know your opinion on US GDP. |
| 1:20 | What do you anticipate the outcome of U.S. GDP? Good result and bullish for the USD ( 23% ) ( 8% ) ( 0% ) ( 15% ) ( 15% ) ( 38% ) |
| 1:20 | [Comment From nagalla] what will happen if GDP(p) shows worst then expected........risk aversion or risk appitete? |
| 1:21 | Nick Nasad - CMS: If the data comes in worse than expected we should expect an increase in risk aversion, which would in this environment help the US Dollar.. This week has seen a re-emergence of risk aversion as investors especially in the Asian markets are worrying about Chinese growth.. |
| 1:21 | [Comment From Adamu] hi what is likely going to be the direction of Eur/Usd? |
| 1:23 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The EUR/USD, found support above 1.42 and has been gaining overnight after sliding yesterday. We are in a consolidation pattern, centering around 1.43. |
| 1:23 | FXstreet.com: Todayfs sponsor is CMS Forex. |
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| 1:24 | FXstreet.com: 5 minutes to go |
| 1:25 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Starting from August 6th, we are seeing an ascending triangle. Though the data from the Euro-zone should be supporting the Euro, the Euro's gains have been capped so far by worries about the Eur-zone banking sector and troubles in Eastern Europe. |
| 1:25 | [Comment From kala] how gbp/usd will react after gdp data |
| 1:26 | FXstreet.com: German CPI just came out! German Aug CPI Forecast 0.0% On Mo, -0.2% On Yr German Aug CPI +0.2% On Month, 0.0% On Year |
| 1:27 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The GBP/USD broke through key support at the 1.63 level yesterday, falling to a 6-week low. Though the pair has found some support near 1.6170, the fundamental picture is still weak for the Pound and it is being pressured from all sides. |
| 1:27 | Nick Nasad - CMS: there have been breaks of several longer term upward sloping lines of support as well, so i'm bearish on the pound in teh medium term. |
| 1:29 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Still, you may want to see a retest of 1.63 to place a sell as we are a bit oversold right now following the fall from 1.66 starting last Friday. |
| 1:29 | [Comment From silver500] Will Cable rally, its been falling forever |
| 1:31 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the Pound has come under scrutinity following its weaker than expected print for 2nd quarter gdp, the expansion of hte central bank's asset plan, and now falling yields on gilts. It's also broken some techincal levels that all point to weaknes.. however as I mentioned beofre, we are getting slighlty oversold, and there should be some pullback to the recent downmove, though for me it would be a chance to sell the pound. |
| 1:32 | Nick Nasad - CMS: we're seeing some movement towards the greenback in the USD/CAD and EUR/USD pair, and the USD/JPY is breaking bove its short term resistance |
| 1:32 | [Comment From silver500] no, I would sell from 1.6450 or better 1.6550 +/- |
| 1:33 | [Comment From macharia] hi nick...do you mean going long in gbp/usd is dangerous??? |
| 1:34 | Nick Nasad - CMS: US 2Q GDP Unchanged At -1.0% |
| 1:34 | FXstreet.com: US Jobless Claims -10K To 570K |
| 1:36 | FXstreet.com: Todayfs sponsor is CMS Forex. |
| 1:36 | Nick Nasad - CMS: so far the reaction is rather muted, but overall should push the theme that the global recession is easing, and if the US is one of the first countries to see recovery it would be an interesting dynamic since its currently the safe haven . |
| 1:37 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the EUR/USD has set up a line of support in today's trading, which we just re-tested and bounced up off of |
| 1:38 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Inventories were slashed $159.2 billion in the second quarter, revised from a previously reported $141.1 billion cut. More liquidation in the second quarter suggests a lower need to cut so deeply in the third quarter, which would help economic growth. |
| 1:39 | FXstreet.com: Here you will find
Official GDP source
|
| 1:39 | Nick Nasad - CMS: very muted action so far, so I will take some more questions |
| 1:39 | [Comment From silver500] Some of the Data released showing better than excpected results are 'questionable' I dont belive it all |
| 1:41 | Nick Nasad - CMS: It depends on the data you are referring to, but in the US for instance we are seeing a rebound in the housing markets, both existing and new home sales surprised on the upside.. durable goods orders are up, and manufacturing reports from teh Fed including the New York, Philadelphia and RIchmond PMI's have all bounced back in to positive territory. |
| 1:41 | Nick Nasad - CMS: so, risk appetite is helping the Euro to pare its losses to the greenback prior to the release. |
| 1:41 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the USD/CAD is extending its losses, pushing the loonie to new intra-day high agasint the greenback. |
| 1:42 | [Comment From cindy] Hi Nick,What is your short term view on usd/cad,pls |
| 1:42 | FXstreet.com: Todayfs sponsor is CMS Forex. |
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| 1:43 | Nick Nasad - CMS: This is an interesting pair in that after it fell to 1.0650 in early August, we had the Canadian government bemoaning its appreciation. We moved back to 1.11 on some risk aversion factors, and we were seeing another round of greenback strength as oil prices faltered. |
| 1:45 | Nick Nasad - CMS: However, we have completed a 61.8% retracement of the most recent fall from 1.11 to 1.07. Better news about global recovery, such as today's GDP, should help to strengthen the Loonie, perhaps retesting that 107 level.. I see us bouncing around these levels for a little while, with positive data and gains by the Loonie countered by Canadian central bank officials.. |
| 1:45 | [Comment From venkat] will EUR\USD takes advantage of U.S. GDP RESULTS? |
| 1:46 | Nick Nasad - CMS: so far it doesn't seem that way., and though we pared the initial losses in teh pair, we are seeing anotehr push down. |
| 1:48 | FXstreet.com: US Jobless Claims -10K To 570K US 2Q GDP Unchanged At -1.0% |
| 1:48 | Nick Nasad - CMS: still any retest of 1.4250 could be a long opportunity... I don't see how this data winds up helping the greenback in today's trading at the end of the session.. unless traders begin to price in the US economy recovering faster than its major rivals and bet that the Fed will be the first to raise interest rates. |
| 1:49 | [Comment From zaphy] If the Q2 GDP, initial jobless claims doesn't move the FX markets, what kind of fundamental data will? |
| 1:51 | Nick Nasad - CMS: zaphy, today's gdp data, being a second release is already slightly dated, so it doesnt have the same impact that the advance of 1st release does.. |
| 1:52 | [Comment From Neena] Hello Nick - i'm quite new in this - if the market feel resession is easing you think usd might take a dip ? i would like to go long on gbp/usd? |
| 1:54 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Looks like the greenback is retesting the 1.4250 level, and we'll see if that acts to push the pair back up. |
| 1:55 | Nick Nasad - CMS: neena, back to your question, that was the prevailing mood in Mar-May, that recovery weakens the greenback, but most of the initial recovery prospects has been priced in and the Euro-zone and UK with their own problems have dipped from their highs for this year, that were set in early August. |
| 1:57 | Nick Nasad - CMS: if you think global growth is on the mend, you should look at the Aussie, though it has been caught in a period of consolidation as well in August, it could be poised to break out on the upside of the 0.84 level |
| 1:57 | [Comment From John] Does it make sense to go long USD after this data considering that jobless rates are stabilizing and could start showing improvement soon. |
| 1:59 | Nick Nasad - CMS: John, if the labor market begins to improve it will be a big boost for the US economy (as we mentioned before we are seeing improvements in housing and manufacturing already).., however, which theme will it play into.. the one that says a recovering US economy is good for global growth and therefore risk appetite and higher yielders? that could pressure the greenback as it has been the currency of safe-haven, and with its low interest rate is actually a funding currency for carry trade.., or? will the fundamentals from the US actually help the greenback if investors believe the Fed will be first to raise rates.. |
| 2:00 | Nick Nasad - CMS: those are the two competing factors on the greenback right now if we say that US data and the US labor market is showing improvement |
| 2:00 | [Comment From silver500] AUD Well positioned but what about NZD? |
| 2:00 | FXstreet.com: Todayfs sponsor is CMS Forex. |
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| 2:01 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the Kiwi is likley positioned similar to the Aussie, though its recession was deeper than in Australia. However, the Kiwiw has been testing its high for this year already this week, and could see a break out above 0.6890.. |
| 2:02 | [Comment From joseph] how far could sterling fall vs USD are we talking high 1.59 1.58 or back to march lows |
| 2:04 | Nick Nasad - CMS: I don't see us moving back to March lows, but I think the zone around 1.60 would be my first target. |
| 2:05 | [Comment From mirko] Hello Nick, GBPUSD will stay under pressure today, please your short term view. Thank you |
| 2:05 | [Comment From mirko] Hello Nick, What is your view on GBPUSD short term? Thank you. |
| 2:05 | FXstreet.com: US Jobless Claims -10K To 570K US 2Q GDP Unchanged At -1.0% |
| 2:08 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The Pound is showing me bearish technical signals which come in conjunction with weak fundamentals. That has me bearish on the Pound, and as I mentioned a has me eyeing a retest of 1.60, the low from July 8th... Still that being said, we have had a 420 pip move down in teh pair recently, which may need a bit of correction before the pair extends its downmove. a break of today's support would chance that view, but if it holds I would wait for the pair to climb to 1.63 to short. |
| 2:11 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the dollar is being persistent today, with the GDP data being reflected in Dollar strength. OF course better-than-expected news for an economy usually boosts its currency, but as we know the dollar is a bit of special case in how it affects investor sentiment and risk appetite. I laid out the dueling factors when we get positive US data, and right now the greenback bulls are currently holding the upper hand.. The 1.4240 level is holding though, we'll see what happens when Us equity markets open. |
| 2:12 | [Comment From jun] GBP don't show any sign of recovery soon against USD |
| 2:13 | FXstreet.com: Sorry we have just 5 minutes left. Ask Nick if you have any questions! |
| 2:16 | [Comment From silver500] When will EuroGBP fall ???? Will we see a test of 0.9000 |
| 2:18 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The rally in the EUR/GBP has been very strong for this pair and the factors tha are driving it do not seem to be dissapoating. still, the level we are currently at does run against a trendline that acted as support (in mid April) that could now act as resistance.. still, if the pound remains pressured by a central bank that is continuing to exapnd its QE program, and yields for UK assets continue to fall the Pound could end up testing 0.90... |
| 2:19 | FXstreet.com: Sorry time is up... It have been a pleasure with you! Thank you every one and Nick! It has been really great!... Any final inal words ? |
| 2:19 | Nick Nasad - CMS: dissipating* |
| 2:19 | [Comment From Dusan] Nick, what do you expect the EUR/USD pair trend for next weeks? |
| 2:19 | Nick Nasad - CMS: sorry guys, last question |
| 2:24 | Nick Nasad - CMS: For how the data is reflecting a bottoming out of the global recession, we would think that the EUR/USD would be higher. Instead we have been moving back and forth in a spate of consolidation. Most recently we are forimng a triangle pattern that is almost symmetrical.. with the trendlines for support and resistance meeting at 1.43.. I think traders and investors, though concerned about the long term prospects for the greenback, also have a wary eye for the Euro right now, since its economy may take longer to come out of the recession. That has given us a bit of direactionless trading in the past month, with opportunities for range trade techniques, but nor for trend followers |
| 2:26 | FXstreet.com: I would like to say thank you for the great comments! |
| 2:26 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Overall though the Euro remains the otehr choice in terms of holding reserves, and if the incoming data remains positive, we should see a break of the pair on the upside in the next several weeks. |
| 2:26 | Nick Nasad - CMS: ok, that will wrap up our session. |
| 2:27 | Nick Nasad - CMS: thank you all for you comments and questions. I hope i was able to help paint a picture about how the fundamentals have been affecting the currency markets |
| 2:27 | FXstreet.com: Thank you again Nick and you guy all participating today's live coverage!. |
| 2:27 | Nick Nasad - CMS: its been a pleasure! I hope to see you next time |
| 2:27 | [Comment From silver500] Thanks Nick!!! |
| 2:29 | FXstreet.com: See you Nick! let me inform you the next live coverage is scheduled on 3rd September ECB rate decision starting at 11:30 GMT. |
| 2:29 | FXstreet.com: Thanks too to today's sponsor, CMS Forex |
| 2:29 | [Ad] | CMS - Integrated Pattern Recognition Tecnology View |
| 2:31 | FXstreet.com: Alright ! Bye for now! See you in the next live coverage! Adios! |
| 2:31 | FXstreet.com: Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. |
| 2:31 |  |
Disclaimer: Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
| FED Interest Rates decision Live Coverage with Nick Nasad | (08/12/2009) |
| 7:03 | FXstreet.com: Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex. |
| 7:04 | [Ad] | CMS - Integrated Pattern Recognition Tecnology View |
| 7:04 | FXstreet.com: Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's Fed Interest Rates Decison will start in 5 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Nick Nasad who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. He will be giving us a direct picture for the market status. |
| 7:04 | FXstreet.com: Nick Nasad is a currency market analyst with CMS Forex for the last 3 years. He closely monitors fundamental releases and reports their results and provides commentary to the company's clients through CMS Forex's interactive economic calendar Forex Capsule and through daily Forex market video recaps. He has also written extensive educational material on using technical analysis in trading Forex. |
| 7:04 | FXstreet.com: Hello Nick and welcome back to FXstreet.com! |
| 7:05 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Hello everyone, and thank you for coming to our live coverage. We are going to post a quick disclaimer and then get started. |
| 7:06 | FXstreet.com: Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. |
| 7:06 | FXstreet.com: Now, Nick, you can go ahead with your Preview for today's Fed |
| 7:07 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The Fed release is upon us, and though there's not much anticiaption for surprises from the Fed, what we should see is for officials to signal more optimism over the outlook for the economy, reiterate its zero-interest rate policy, as it has already mentioned keeping rates low for an extended time |
| 7:08 | Nick Nasad - CMS: what we will be looking for is any word on how the Fed plans to create an "Exit strategy" from low interest rates, and what they will do in regards to the Treasury purchase program, which has already spent around $250 billion of the originally allocated $300 billion. |
| 7:09 | Nick Nasad - CMS: any evidence that the Fed is willing to remove its easy-money policies would be a boost for the USD. |
| 7:09 | Nick Nasad - CMS: however, any plans to expand the Treasury purchase plan, a somewhat unlikely scenario would pressure the greenback. |
| 7:09 | Nick Nasad - CMS: let me start with some questions now |
| 7:09 | [Comment From romain] if we have 0.5% will it be good for €? |
| 7:11 | Nick Nasad - CMS: its very unlikely that the Fed will even signal when it will raise rates, expectations are for sometime in spring of next year for a move to tighten rates. Any indication that the Fed is going to try and raise rates faster should have a dollar bias. |
| 7:11 | [Comment From Arun Kandyal] Hi Nick how r u ? What do you expect GBP wil fall or rise. |
| 7:11 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The GBP/USD pair has been rather interesting,. We saw a strong rally 2 weeks ago, after we broke above strong resistance at 1.66, |
| 7:12 | Nick Nasad - CMS: however with the Bank of England announcing the expansion of its asset-purchase program, the Pound lost its luster and fell back down below 1.66. |
| 7:12 | Nick Nasad - CMS: though if you plot fibonacci ratios from the low we had at 1.60 on July 8th to the 1.70 high in early August, we see our downmove has bounced up off the 61.8% ratio |
| 7:13 | FXstreet.com: Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex. |
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| 7:14 | Nick Nasad - CMS: stock rallies and increased risk appetite is boosting the Euro and Pound today, and if the theme of a recovery for the global economy continues to get steam (despite China's data yesterday), the Pound should retrace its steps higher. That depends on investor sentiments the rest of the week. |
| 7:14 | [Comment From ali] do you think that the coments after the decition will be good for usd dollar ?? |
| 7:15 | Nick Nasad - CMS: a brighter outlook for the economy will have dual factors, it will help the greenback as it implies the Fed would be more willing to raise rates, but it will also boost risk appetite, which could further the rally in higher yielders. look for any mention of what the Fed plans to do with Treasuries as well as something that can move the currency markets. |
| 7:16 | [Comment From Thomas] do you see usd stronger on a non event |
| 7:17 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Thomas, today's action in addition to higher risk appetite due to stocks probably also had a bit to do with traders squaring their positions before the Fed statement, |
| 7:18 | Nick Nasad - CMS: so, markets are pushing in favor of the greenback., with the euro pairing its higher gains, the usd/jpy is hitting new highs for today as well. |
| 7:19 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the statement reiterates the Fed's policy to keep rates "exceptionally low" for extended period |
| 7:19 | Nick Nasad - CMS: "In addition, the Federal Reserve is in the process of buying $300 billion of Treasury securities. To promote a smooth transition in markets as these purchases of Treasury securities are completed, the Committee has decided to gradually slow the pace of these transactions and anticipates that the full amount will be purchased by the end of October." |
| 7:20 | FXstreet.com: Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex. |
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| 7:20 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the Fed will not expand its program for Treasury purchases, but rather slow how it spends the rest of the money remaining. |
| 7:21 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the knee-jerk reaction was a movement to the greenback,.. likely on the more upbeat opening paragraph in the statement along with the announcement regarding treasuries. |
| 7:21 | Nick Nasad - CMS: you can read the statement here... http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20090812a.htm |
| 7:23 | Nick Nasad - CMS: greenback strength is gaining momentum now, at least in the EUR/USD pair |
| 7:24 | Nick Nasad - CMS: we passed teh 50% retracement of today's swing from low to high. |
| 7:24 | [Comment From Rachel] Is the consensus that the greenback is poised bullishly across the majors? |
| 7:26 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the implications here is that the US economy and the Fed may be closer to raising rates than others, though there was no signal in the statement for an exit strategy from the zero interest rate policy. instead we did have an exit for the Treasury plan, which I think helps bolster the case that the Fed, unlike the Bank of England, see the recession bottoming out and that it can at least ease and conclude one of its programs. |
| 7:28 | Nick Nasad - CMS: i dont know that today's statement pushes up the timeline for when the Fed will actually begin to raise rates, expectaions are for a move between spring 2010 and mid-2010. |
| 7:29 | Nick Nasad - CMS: futures for the funds rate are showing a move in April. |
| 7:30 | Nick Nasad - CMS: we had another push by the greenback, paring even more of its earlier losses to the Pound, Euro, and the commodity block of currencies (Loonie, Kiwi, Aussie) |
| 7:30 | [Comment From sara] what will happen for EUR/USD? |
| 7:32 | Nick Nasad - CMS: we are still within our range for today in this pair, but it looks like the traders and investors that squared their short positions in this pair are now jumping back in, as there was no surprise by the Fed in terms of increasing its Treasury program. We have an upward sloping line of support in this pair, if you connect the lows from early July and late July, which we tested in the downmove by the middle of this week. |
| 7:32 | Nick Nasad - CMS: a crack of that support could spell further moves down in this pair. |
| 7:33 | [Comment From ryan] Hi nick, what is your outlook on gbpusd? |
| 7:35 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The test of 1.70 was precipitated by positive data from services, manufacturing PMI's, along with housing and some consuemr confidence surveys. However, s GDP figures came out and were worse than expected and the Bank of England somewhat surprise expansion of its asset-purchase plan has knocked away some of that bullish bias for the Pound. We have dropped back into a the level at which we saw sideways trading (between Jul 16th through Jul 30) and we could see another period of consolidation. |
| 7:36 | [Comment From Dr. Rob] why would cable be considered a high yielder? it's only 25 bp's above the greenback. the real yielders these days are the aussie and the kiwi, maybe the euro |
| 7:38 | Nick Nasad - CMS: yes that's true in a way, but the Pound does correlate with risk sentiment in a similar way. when risk appetite is up, the Pound usually gains on the greenback. Also the rates that we see are the base interest rate not factoring in the rates banks put on top, which has an impact on where capital flows. |
| 7:39 | FXstreet.com: Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex. |
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| 7:39 | [Comment From Martin] Any thoughts on what will happen if we break MA55 in EUR/USD |
| 7:42 | Nick Nasad - CMS: that MA has been acting as support during the recent consolidation phase in this pair throughout June/July, though we have trending higher to set a new high for the year near 1.45. The structural long-term difficulties for the Dollar along with the sense that the global economy is on its way to bottoming out has kept the greenback weaker. However, if the US economy shows life, and the non-farm payroll report played into this, and that growth surpasses the pace in Europe, the greenback could see a move back in its favor.. a break of that longer-term moving average would help to facilitate such a move. |
| 7:44 | Nick Nasad - CMS: now thats a slightly more medium term outlook, and Euro-zone data and signals from ECB policy makers will have to be much more dovish for this scenario to play out. still traders may not be ready to move above 1.45, so thats the point to watch closely in a more medium-term strategy. Like with the GBP/USD traders could be sensitive about pushing the pair higher after setting a new high for the year. |
| 7:44 | [Comment From Tarun] Hi Nick , so you dont expect any downtrend yet in gbp/usd ? |
| 7:45 | Nick Nasad - CMS: its an acute possibility, but we have just moved back into the consolidation zone we have seen for June/July. |
| 7:47 | Nick Nasad - CMS: we did see a break of an upward sloping line of support (connecting July's lows) which is the first indication of a downmove. and with the BOE surprising market watchers with its dovish statement, the stage could be set for a further move down in this pair. if traders believe the Pound has been bid up too high, we should see a re-test of 1.60 as support. That was our low for the consolidation zone for the past two months. OF course tehres strong short term support near 1.63-1.6350 |
| 7:48 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The EUR/USD has bounced off the support line towards teh top of the broadcast.. connecting lows from July 8th and Jul30, and the USD/JPY has also given back its gains from the immediiate aftermath of the statement. |
| 7:50 | Nick Nasad - CMS: stocks are paring some of their loftier gains, and is likely the reason for the quick turnaround in the USD/JPY |
| 7:50 | [Comment From Dr.Nys] gbp/usd seems to be bouncing back after rejection from the 1.643 support, any ideas on how high it will go? |
| 7:52 | Nick Nasad - CMS: a fibo study of our swing from high to low prior to the release and after, shows us at the 50% retracement currently |
| 7:53 | Nick Nasad - CMS: that is a healthy retracement, though usually we can expect a bounceback to 61.8%. the counter-rally to our initial move is now slowing as well.. |
| 7:53 | [Comment From ed] time to take it back to the fib50. I can't see how anyone could have taken today's FOMC as bullish for the dollar. Dollar is dead... |
| 7:55 | Nick Nasad - CMS: this has been pretty volatile price action, with much of the initial dollar strength being cut down. |
| 7:55 | [Comment From Peter] What about USD/EUR testing 1.47 or even 1.60 (a triple top)...:) |
| 7:58 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the dollar is going to have problems ahead, especially as the global economy continues to recover. we saw how the greenback got alot of strength as a safe haven, and the need to find that safe haven, in say US Treasuries is dwindling. a senario in which Euro-zone growth is showing signs of recovery could push the pair higher. the rally since March suggests teh 1.47 level can be tested, but our moves in June and July have been rather labored. |
| 7:58 | [Comment From ed] time to break the fib50 euro/usd.... |
| 7:58 | [Comment From Dr.Nys] gbp/usd is finding enormous amounts of volatilty at 61.8%, should reverse soon I think |
| 7:59 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the EUR/USD has returned to its levels prior to the release, as have the Yen and Pound. |
| 8:00 | [Comment From ryan] do u think gpb and eur will start making gains over the dollar over the coming weeks |
| 8:01 | FXstreet.com: Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex. |
| 8:01 | Nick Nasad - CMS: i see more strength in the EUR/USD pair as the support level set up in Jul has held so far.. With the GBP/USD, the fundamental data from the UK most recently has pressured the Pound, enough to crack its support level that was set up in July |
| 8:03 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the past two months have mainly seen sideways trading, but overall both have moved to set new highs for the year as a result of better stocks and economic data. Unless traders see an earlier tightening bias by the Fed, which is not what we got in today's statement, those overall trends should continue, withstanding some risk aversion event. |
| 8:03 | [Comment From Arun Kandyal] Do you Expect GBP could go above 1.6600 towards close of us session |
| 8:05 | Nick Nasad - CMS: we are now at the upper boundary of the sideways range we saw in mid July. Let's see if it begins to act as resistance again, following its break to end July. so far, the intra-day highs in the pair seem to have capped the Pound's gains. |
| 8:05 | [Comment From vikas] what is your view on commodities? |
| 8:05 | [Comment From shariq] any view on aussie .. |
| 8:07 | Nick Nasad - CMS: commodities got back their luster in today's session, which has helped push up the Aussie and Canadian Dollar. If the economic data that is showing a bottoming out of the global recession, and a return to growth in the major economies in the 3rd quarter, then commodities should continue to rise. A lower greenback would also facilitate higher commodity prices. |
| 8:07 | FXstreet.com: We are short of time today, let's go for the last question |
| 8:07 | [Comment From Dr. Rob] is this event being recorded and if so where can one find it so those who could not attend it can review what they missed? |
| 8:08 | Nick Nasad - CMS: you can find the link to it from the "live coverage" tab from within the fxstreet economic calendar, |
| 8:08 | Nick Nasad - CMS: and transcripts are posted here as well: http://www.fxstreet.com/live/transcripts/?Transcriptslist3-page=1 |
| 8:09 | FXstreet.com: Hi Dr. Rob! The transcript will be uploaded within the next 24 hours. You can find it where Nick said or directly in http://www.transcripts.fxstreet.com |
| 8:09 | Nick Nasad - CMS: sorry this one's easier, http://www.fxstreet.com/live/transcripts/ |
| 8:09 | Nick Nasad - CMS: ok, so i am running out of time, |
| 8:09 | FXstreet.com: Well, Nick, thanks for your time today, any final words? |
| 8:10 | Nick Nasad - CMS: today's announcement, while acknowledging the better data from the US, did not present any "exit-strategy" langugae from its zero-interest rate policy. we did see that the treasury purchase plan is set to be conclude, though te pace at which the Fed will buy Treasuries will slow, so that the program can run through October. |
| 8:11 | Nick Nasad - CMS: though there was initial greenback strength, most of the gains were pared down, which made this a rather volatile and tricky news event to trade. |
| 8:13 | Nick Nasad - CMS: What to look for coming up is whether better data from the US, like the non-farm payroll release, will have more impact on greenback strength or will it just bolster the case that the global recovery is happening and that traders should sell the dollar and go for higher-yielders. since setting highs for this year, the Euro and Pound have eased off those highs. If we see a continuation of this short-term greenback strength or if we go and retest those highs will play out over the rest of this week and next. |
| 8:14 | Nick Nasad - CMS: allright, and with that I will have to leave you guys, thank you so much for all the questions (and my apologies if I wasn't able to answer yours directly). I still very much appreciate all of your particiaption. |
| 8:14 | FXstreet.com: I would like to thank to Nick for being with us once again for the Fed Interest Rate decision. We will be back at the end of August with the GDP Live Coverage, again with Nick Nasad. |
| 8:15 | [Comment From ed] thx! |
| 8:15 | FXstreet.com: Thanks to all the traders gathered here today and to CMS Forex, our Live Coverage Sponsor. |
| 8:15 | [Comment From Dr.Nys] Thanks for the help Nick |
| 8:15 | [Comment From Silver500] Thank you Sir Nick Nasad!!!! |
| 8:15 | FXstreet.com: Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex. |
| 8:15 | [Ad] | CMS - Integrated Pattern Recognition Tecnology View |
| 8:15 | Nick Nasad - CMS: thank you all, have a great rest of the week, and I'll see you next time. |
| 8:15 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Goodbye and good luck. |
| 8:15 | FXstreet.com: Good-bye and see you the next Live Coverage! |
| 8:16 | FXstreet.com: Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts |
| 8:17 | |
Disclaimer: Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The End of the Dollar Asset Bubble
Expert: Joseph Trevisani, Chief Market Analyst at FX Solutions
Moderator: Maud Gilson
Summary:
From last September until March the dominant currency trade was a direct kin to the panic in the financial markets. When in doubt purchase dollar denominated assets. A huge bubble of Treasury assets were bought with foreign and domestic money. As the crisis rolled on, even though it had started in the US, involved many of the most prominent United States financial institutions, and called forth an unprecedented amount of government intervention and a deluge of dollar liquidity, nothing dented the dollar's ascendancy. Compared with the potential for the rest of the world the United States was the safest holder of wealth. How long will it take to unwind this asset bubble and what are the consequences for the dollar?
Continue reading "The End of the Dollar Asset Bubble" »
Posted by FXstreet Team in Economic (Macro) Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Market Viewpoint & Live Commentary | Permalink | Comments (0)