| BoE Interest Rates Decision with Valeria Bednarik | (09/10/2009) |
| 11:43 | FXstreet.com: Information and opinions contained in this COver-it-Live session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.
|
| 11:44 | FXstreet.com: Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. |
| 11:44 | FXstreet.com: Todayfs sponsor is CMS Forex. |
| 11:46 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi everybody, and welcome to this live event! As always is a pleasure to be here with you again |
| 11:46 | Will the BoE cut the bench mark interest rate?Yes, the BoE will cut it by 25bps to 0.25%. Yes the BoE will cut it by 50bps to Zero. No, the BoE will rather hold the ongoing rate. No, the BoE will rather hike it by 25bps. No, the BoE will rather hike it by 50bps. |
| 11:48 | Valeria Bednarik: As you know, we are here waiitng for the Bank of England monetary policy; Gbp has been under pressure and quiet this week waiting for this event, after past month surprise of increasing QE |
| 11:48 | [Comment From GSG]
What's your tke on GBP after the BOE decision? |
| 11:49 | Valeria Bednarik: Well, it will depend on the annoucement of course.. if they cut rates, or interbank rates, or extend QE, Gbp will likely fall |
| 11:50 | Valeria Bednarik: If don't, Gbp will be "free" to follow risk appetite run against greenback; However something really important to take into account: |
| 11:50 | FXstreet.com: BoE decision will be released at 11:00 GMT |
| 11:50 | Valeria Bednarik: yesterday, the central Bank of NZD leave rates unchanged, but reteined the easing bias, and governor Bollard, complained about and expensive currency, that harms economic recovery. |
| 11:51 | Valeria Bednarik: That's something we should also pay attention here, thus minutes won't be release today but in 15 days |
| 11:52 | [Comment From Guest]
BOE they will keep the inrest rate no change |
| 11:52 | [Comment From Guest]
do u think GB will go up or dwon |
| 11:52 | [Comment From Savio]
what is expected? |
| 11:52 | [Comment From toto]
buy GBP |
| 11:53 | Valeria Bednarik: Ok we have some delay,sorry for that.. Ok toto that is what you can do if they keep things unchanged
|
| 11:53 | [Comment From pepa]
hi everbody |
| 11:53 | [Comment From Arun Kandyal]
Hi Val ,how are you ,so where do you see gbp today |
| 11:54 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi pepa and Arun!Gbp has support at 1.6475 and 1.6440; under this last, likely to fall. To the upside, if above 1.6580, expect pair to reach 1.6620 1.6660 main resistance.
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| 11:54 | Valeria Bednarik: Above 1.6660, pair should resume uptrend |
| 11:54 | [Comment From Silver500]
Will there be a spike, or is data priced in? How will this affect GBPNZD? |
| 11:55 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Silver, porable spike, and I beliewve this time nothing is priced in because market is waiting; GBP was in a small range this week, as nobody wanted to compromise positions ahead of this report. |
| 11:55 | [Comment From Lucian]
What can we expect from euro/gbp? |
| 11:56 | Valeria Bednarik: Now, pair is above a weekly descendandt trend line coming from historical highs. If we end the week above 0.8800 chances are to the upside, thus I don't expect the pair to hold for long above 0.90 |
| 11:57 | [Comment From Silver500]
Has the Dollar started its reversal? |
| 11:57 | FXstreet.com: Todayfs sponsor is CMS Forex. |
| 11:58 | Valeria Bednarik: Sorry, no silver... we are just seen some due corrective movements. market needed them movements were way to quick and long, logic to see corrections now; if euro breaks under 1.4445 maybe the downside could extend. not before in there |
| 11:58 | [Comment From Savio]
any other events for gbp at 11 gmt?? |
| 11:58 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes they will announce the assets purchasing activity also. Could be jumpy! |
| 11:58 | [Comment From sx]
And what's can you say about Eur? |
| 12:00 | Valeria Bednarik: well, Euro is up, not with own strength but due to dollar weakness and gold prices at 1000/oz. if above yestereday's high, a run to 1.4720 december high seems likley, yet i don't expect the pair to remain there for so long. Won't be good for euro zone economic recovery |
| 12:00 | [Comment From Guest]
so if they cut rates GBP/USD should fall down,how big this move can be? |
| 12:00 | Valeria Bednarik: Wish I could know. but usually, between 100 and 200 pips.. depends on market mood. as market is dollar bearish, downside should be limited |
| 12:01 | Valeria Bednarik: Already we have the new? Gbp is rising quickly |
| 12:01 | [Comment From pepa]
where is the good resitance for GBP/USD |
| 12:01 | Valeria Bednarik: 1.6660 |
| 12:02 | [Comment From Guest]
has there been any thing more about quant. easing since there last statement? |
| 12:02 | Valeria Bednarik: no |
| 12:02 | [Comment From nagalla]
what will happen to eur\gbp if they increase QE and cut interbank rates? |
| 12:02 | Valeria Bednarik: probably rise big |
| 12:02 | Valeria Bednarik: RATES UNCHANGED |
| 12:03 | Valeria Bednarik: we are approaching to 1.6600 as expected |
| 12:03 | [Comment From Silver500]
How and why, will the rate decision affect EUR/USD? |
| 12:04 | FXstreet.com: BoE has decided to hold the ongoing bench mark rate at 0.50% |
| 12:04 | Valeria Bednarik: won't affect Euro that much, but general market sentiment.. see how Gbp rises, and not EURO, if Pound holds under 1.6600, not much chances of longer term rises |
| 12:04 | [Comment From Stahn]
but i tink pound will range |
| 12:04 | [Comment From ash]
i can see the GBP down to 1.6400 |
| 12:04 | [Comment From MIKE]
I SEE OPPOSING TRENDS...UP AND DOWN...IS'T POSSIBLE..AND WHY? |
| 12:05 | Valeria Bednarik: It's posible of course, market uncertainty is too big at this point despite last risk appetite rush |
| 12:06 | Valeria Bednarik: GBP/JPY is ranging.. not clear direction now in the long term. Probably of couse rising now but not that much. If USDGBP lost 1.6550 now, we are way down |
| 12:06 | [Comment From toto]
what affect will it face GBP/JPY |
| 12:06 | [Comment From siva]
can we expect CB intervention in usd\chf if this pairs breaks recent lows.......... |
| 12:07 | Valeria Bednarik: I am expect that yes... but follow better EUR/CHF. intervention will likley come when that pair approaches to 1.5100 |
| 12:07 | [Comment From kennneth]
even though dollar is a little bit strong |
| 12:08 | Valeria Bednarik: because gold is falling.. till now, corrections.. trend change needs a long way to go. |
| 12:08 | [Comment From rupam]
hi val, whats your analysis regarding gbp in uptrend? |
| 12:09 | Valeria Bednarik: I would like to see it above 1.6660 to call for an uptrend... pair failed again to regain the 1.6600 just now, and dollar is a bit stronger across the board. |
| 12:09 | Valeria Bednarik: As I posted earlier, strong currencies won't help an economic recovery.... be aware of that |
| 12:09 | [Comment From Al]
What about gold Valeria? |
| 12:10 | Valeria Bednarik: Gold is correcting to the downside, now at 983/oz. we need to see it under 950 to call for a larger downside movement.. but that's the main reason of dollar current strength |
| 12:10 | [Comment From JR]
WILL EURO TOUCH 1.47? |
| 12:11 | Valeria Bednarik: needs to overcome 1.4600 resistance area first. If does, yes more than likely. |
| 12:11 | Valeria Bednarik: QE remained unchanged |
| 12:11 | [Comment From Silver500]
it will rise, fall, then go back to what it was doing |
| 12:12 | [Comment From Silver500]
Cable tripple top[? |
| 12:12 | FXstreet.com: Todayfs sponsor is CMS Forex. |
| 12:12 | Valeria Bednarik: yes! seems a triple top in the hourly.. Neck around 1.6440 strong support.. if we lost that level, Gbp will likley fall |
| 12:12 | [Comment From MIKE]
WASN'T MY CALL RIGHT..VALERIA |
| 12:13 | Valeria Bednarik: sorry mike! what was it??? you are a lot, and I'm just one!!!!! |
| 12:13 | [Comment From GSG]
do we sell gbp? |
| 12:13 | Valeria Bednarik: not here not a good level, we are in the midle of nowhere |
| 12:13 | [Comment From Silver500]
Will Cable head south to 1.618 now? |
| 12:14 | Valeria Bednarik: That's too much to call.. watch first for a break of 1.6440.. |
| 12:14 | [Comment From JR]
HAS EUR/USD TOP OUT OR WILL IT GO TO 1.47? |
| 12:15 | Valeria Bednarik: If i new that 100% sure... you can bet i won't be here but trading.. |
| 12:16 | Valeria Bednarik: we nned to follow technicals... if under 1,4445, chances of a leg up dilute. If above 1.4560, or better 1.4600, more likely to reach 1.4720 highs |
| 12:16 | [Comment From John]
So you think euro will go down? |
| 12:17 | Valeria Bednarik: suports here are at 1.4500 and then 50 pips under... my idea is that it should because of macro reasons.... but that does not mean sentiment could push it higher. |
| 12:17 | [Comment From yasir]
hi valeria what u think is going on with German dax and s&p |
| 12:18 | Valeria Bednarik: Well seems we are in a good mood there, and indexes continue rising.S&p has the 61.8% retracement of the last montly fall at 1058 or so... that's the level to watch there.... could reach it... but hardly to break above. If does, I do expect dollar to regain previous correlation with stocks, and rise when stocks rise, and fall when stocks fall. |
| 12:19 | [Comment From Silver500]
GBP/NZD Was such a give away after last nights RBNZ rate decision.... |
| 12:19 | Valeria Bednarik: yeap read what i posted at the beginning about that |
| 12:19 | [Comment From Silver500]
Have the Dollar Swiss players stopped stop hunting? |
| 12:20 | Valeria Bednarik: well 1.0370 was a huge support in weekly charts... altough for now, we are seeing just some corrections. currencies were way overbought against greenback |
| 12:20 | [Comment From Nick]
Euro is still dropping- that's got to act like a weight on GBP- I think we're yet to see the real direction from this news |
| 12:21 | Valeria Bednarik: gold is dropping, and seems that's what's driving the market.. also stocks U.S. futures and we always need to wait at least 30 minutes to decide the trend of a new market needs to diggest it |
| 12:21 | [Comment From Silver500]
By the way, I dont belive any of the News saying GB is out of receseion |
| 12:21 | Valeria Bednarik: me neither... |
| 12:21 | [Comment From Guest]
so what about gbp/usd now? where should it go? |
| 12:22 | Valeria Bednarik: we are holding above 1.6550.... supports at 1.6520 and 1.6475... only under 1.6440 we will go quickly down. and above 1.6600 up |
| 12:22 | [Comment From ash]
do u think GBP WILL GO DOWN TO 1.6400 TODAY |
| 12:22 | Valeria Bednarik: seems not quite likely as remains consolidating here |
| 12:23 | [Comment From abdulrazzak]
gdp usa 1.5800 tch any taiem |
| 12:23 | Valeria Bednarik: well only if we finally break the range to the downside.. .the bottom is at 1.6110 |
| 12:23 | [Comment From MB]
is it a good time to buy USD/CHF |
| 12:24 | Valeria Bednarik: you can, with a tight stop under 1.0360 area... but as commented before, watch for EUR/CHF approaching to 1.5100... there we can see some intervention |
| 12:24 | [Comment From Silver500]
Why would it be a disaster if EUR/USD went higher than 1.4650??? |
| 12:25 | Valeria Bednarik: Not a disaster... but no good for eurozone recovery... and expensive currency made exports more difficult to any country. Sooner or later that harms economy... and we know economies around the world are quite fragile today |
| 12:25 | [Comment From KALA]
will euro touch 1.50? |
| 12:25 | Valeria Bednarik: Could if euphoria extends.. but _i can't see it |
| 12:26 | [Comment From gun]
i think GBPUSD will up...do you think so...? |
| 12:26 | Valeria Bednarik: Only if we move above 1.6600 |
| 12:26 | [Comment From nejo]
i was open position at price 1.6600.should i wait for retest 1.6600 |
| 12:27 | Valeria Bednarik: buy position? if we lost 1.6520 you will be in trouble... if not, you can hold it... |
| 12:27 | [Comment From Guest]
Hi Val, why does all the fundamentals diary times say GMT, i.e. today the BoE announcement was at 1100GMT but it was actually here at 1200GMT. Am I mistaken in thinking that GMT means greenwich mean time? |
| 12:28 | Valeria Bednarik: sorry, I live in Argentina, work in spain, and have to also be aware of GMT and NYork time.... not quite sure, but i do believe that, yes, GMT is greenwich time. You know most countries change hours right? |
| 12:28 | [Comment From Al]
Where do you recommend buying gold? |
| 12:28 | Valeria Bednarik: if rebounds at 950. |
| 12:29 | [Comment From Silver500]
Ok, thank you very much Valeria for the information I learn a little something from you guys each time, ok maybe not 1.618, instead 1.63 618% Fib retracement from 1.6110-1.6593, and theres good Euro ssupport at 1.43 Multiple MA's |
| 12:29 | Valeria Bednarik: youre welcome! and yes... we have lot of supports in the middle |
| 12:29 | [Comment From Guest]
lol |
| 12:30 | [Comment From ray]
what do we do with gbpusd? |
| 12:30 | Valeria Bednarik: Wait! above 1.6600 or under 1.6520 |
| 12:30 | [Comment From Rawpowerx]
Well, its holding 6550...... looks bullish..... |
| 12:30 | Valeria Bednarik: yes for now |
| 12:30 | FXstreet.com: Sorry we have just have 15 mintes left. If you have anything related to the Forex market., please ask her.. Do not miss this chance. |
| 12:30 | [Comment From Guest]
they are asking you all these, cause thet thought you can see the FUTURE |
| 12:31 | Valeria Bednarik: haha no, I can't.. really just technical analysis... support and resistances! that's why how I manage my trading. Breaking key points is what we need to see to trade |
| 12:31 | [Comment From Guest]
since the usd is strenghtening across the board dont u think we should go short on gbp/usd? |
| 12:32 | Valeria Bednarik: As I said before not here... wait to see if break at least 1.6520 |
| 12:32 | [Comment From Silver500]
Thats on 4hrs by the way, the 43 support for Euro |
| 12:32 | Valeria Bednarik: ok tks! |
| 12:32 | [Comment From ash]
what do u think about EUR/JPY UP OR DOWN |
| 12:33 | FXstreet.com: Todayfs sponsor is CMS Forex. |
| 12:33 | Valeria Bednarik: EUR/JPY has to break above KEYY 134.40 to go up... pair is ranging as both, euro and yen are moving agaisnt greenback at the same direction, and not as in the past months. |
| 12:33 | [Comment From Arun Kandyal]
Do you see todat break of 1.6660 area |
| 12:34 | Valeria Bednarik: nop... but so much water can run under the river! we are just starting the day! if US stocks rise strongly and gold regains the upside, is likley. |
| 12:34 | [Comment From Silver500]
well 1.0370 was a huge support in weekly charts... altough for now, we are seeing just some corrections. currencies were way overbought against greenback :::::::::: Ok so we will see a correction then resume downtrend to 1.03 to finally bottom out then begin its real rise?? |
| 12:35 | Valeria Bednarik: I mean, we are seeing corrective movents..Swissy needs to overcome 1.0550 to regain the bullish trend, so yes... as long as under 1.0450 we are correcting... and we could see some downside extension. |
| 12:35 | [Comment From PS]
any conference from the BOE? |
| 12:36 | Valeria Bednarik: BOE will publish minutes in 2 weeks.. |
| 12:36 | Valeria Bednarik: no speeches today no |
| 12:36 | [Comment From Jingle]
how can us trade balance affect gbp/usd |
| 12:37 | Valeria Bednarik: Well as I pointed above, with breaks of key levels, and confirmations with candle openings or so..indicators... whatever you like to use... |
| 12:37 | [Comment From BT]
could GBP go down further? |
| 12:37 | Valeria Bednarik: seems not at this point.. |
| 12:38 | [Comment From Guest]
how will jobless claims factor into all this? |
| 12:38 | Valeria Bednarik: US jobless? will likley ot affect stocks, and fxmarket follow them |
| 12:38 | [Comment From vsbabu]
i hope gold is rising |
| 12:39 | [Comment From Jingle]
How can US trade balance affect GBP/USD? |
| 12:39 | Valeria Bednarik: any dollar news have been affecting stocks.. and stocks gbp and eur...
good news tend to likf stocks and so euro and gbp.. bad news, do the opposite |
| 12:39 | [Comment From vsbabu]
support @ 982.60 ,Resistance @ 996 |
| 12:40 | Valeria Bednarik: For gold! ok tks vsbabu! |
| 12:40 | [Comment From rocco]
why u think that the swissy is so favored right now? when i look at the PPP reportsit is way over priced, huge reliance on its banking system an the country is carrying a large debt load? |
| 12:40 | Valeria Bednarik: because market risk appetite euphoria. I believe it won't take long till we stat to see bank interventions... not only there. |
| 12:41 | [Comment From AQ]
I think if GBP/USD holds above 1.6550 it will break 1.6600 and then head north as we have a good bullish trend line supporting move from 1.6114, only below 1.6445 will this line be broken |
| 12:41 | Valeria Bednarik: exactly the points i see AQ we mention them above... break above 1.6600 next resistance at 1.6660 |
| 12:41 | [Comment From vsbabu]
so buy euro and gbp at current levels |
| 12:42 | Valeria Bednarik: because gold reached support ok... tks again for your comment |
| 12:42 | [Comment From MIKE]
I WROTE..I SEE OPPSING TRENDS IN GBP/$..GOING UP THEN DOWN...MY QUESTION WAS..WHY |
| 12:42 | Valeria Bednarik: well i believe you already have the answer... haha too much questions really sorry for the delay |
| 12:42 | [Comment From Another guest]
To answer your question about GMT, the UK is GMT+1 in the summer time. |
| 12:43 | [Comment From alex]
Hi Val, |
| 12:43 | Valeria Bednarik: Tks Guest and Hi alex
Here we go GBP testin 1.6600 again |
| 12:43 | Valeria Bednarik: euro back above 1.4550 |
| 12:43 | [Comment From alex]
CAn you tell which time range charts are best to watch for a day trading (EURUSD, GBPUSD)? THanx |
| 12:44 | Valeria Bednarik: 4 hours and 1 hour |
| 12:44 | [Comment From GSG]
what abt CAD ..why has this fallen? |
| 12:44 | FXstreet.com: We are short of time today, Sorry I have to wrap up the session. |
| 12:45 | Valeria Bednarik: Because opec decide to mantain the current production, not cut, and hold prices around $ 70 a barrel |
| 12:45 | [Comment From cornel]
can an interested trader get to communicate with you via email? |
| 12:45 | FXstreet.com: Thank you Valeria for the great market view!... and every one who has joined the session.
I have had a great time with you.
Many thanks to all the traders gathered here today for your participation! |
| 12:46 | FXstreet.com: Valeria ,, final word, pelase |
| 12:47 | Valeria Bednarik: As always great to be with you here guys! gold rise fast, majors follow. Risk appetite is in full shape now. Watch for levels and breaks! always the best way to trade.. and don't forgot to use stops.. |
| 12:47 | Valeria Bednarik: Hope to see you all back soon! maybe tonight at the live daily webinar at 22:30 GMT here at FXstreet.com and we can continue discusing market and currencies bahaviour! |
| 12:47 | Valeria Bednarik: Bye for now! |
| 12:48 | FXstreet.com: Thank you again for joining the live coverage. I hope to see you all in the next coverage! Bye for now. Have a beautiful day! Adios! |
| 12:48 | FXstreet.com: Todayfs sponsor is CMS Forex. |
| 12:49 | FXstreet.com: Information and opinions contained in this Cover-it-Live session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.
|
| 12:49 | FXstreet.com: Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. |
| 12:49 | 
|
Disclaimer: Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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