| US GDP Live Coverage Release with Nick Nasad | (09/30/2009) |
| 1:10 | FXstreet.com: Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.
|
| 1:10 | FXstreet.com: Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. |
| 1:11 | FXstreet.com: Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex. |
| 1:12 | FXstreet.com: Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world.
Today's U.S. GDP Live Coverage will start shortly. I am really pleased to introduce Nick Nasad who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter.
He will be giving us a direct picture for the market status. |
| 1:12 | FXstreet.com: Nick Nasad is a currency market analyst with CMS Forex for the last 3 years. He closely monitors fundamental releases and reports their results and provides commentary to the company's clients through CMS Forex's interactive economic calendar Forex Capsule and through daily Forex market video recaps. He has also written extensive educational material on using technical analysis in trading Forex. |
| 1:12 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Thank you for the kind introduction, and hello to everyone participating in today's live coverage! |
| 1:13 | Nick Nasad - CMS: As we await the release of the US GDP release, lets see what has been happening so far in today's session. |
| 1:13 | FXstreet.com: Hi Nick! welcome to the US GDP live coverage |
| 1:14 | What do you anticipate the outcome of U.S. GDP?Good result and bullish for the USD Good result but bearish for the USD Expected result and low volatility Bad result and bearish for the USD Bad result but bullish for the USD Not much impact on the USD |
| 1:15 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Overnight we have seen the greenback sliding, as positive data from around the globe helped to increase risk appetite. We saw Australia retail sales jump, a drop in unemployment in Germany, and a sharp improvement in UK consumer confidence. |
| 1:16 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The good news helped the EUR/USD to break a recent downward sloping line of resistance, (connecting the highs since September 23'rd high at 1.4840) signalling we may see a correction now.. |
| 1:17 | Nick Nasad - CMS: A further correction of the downmove from 1.4850 to 1.4525. In European trading we saw the apir move above the 38.2% fibo retracement of that 5 session downmove. |
| 1:18 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Right now, we should take a look at the ADP employment change, as that release is a curtain raiser for the more important non-farm payroll release coming Friday. |
| 1:18 | [Comment From Guest]
What will be the direction of EUR/USD? |
| 1:20 | Nick Nasad - CMS: RIght now the rally in the Euro stalled out a bit at the 1.4672 high, but like i mentioned we have had a break of our downward sloping line of resistance. Traders will look for the ADP figure, and today's Chicago PMI to gauge risk sentiment |
| 1:20 | Nick Nasad - CMS: so the ADP release showed the private-sector shedding 254K jobs in September. |
| 1:21 | Nick Nasad - CMS: thats was a higher figure than expected (240K), and may cause economists to lift up slightly their estimates for job losses in Friday's government employment report. The consensus right now (from Dow Jones) is for a loss of 175,000 |
| 1:22 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Lets see if we have a reaction to the news, so far, the GBP/USD is showing a bit of topping action to its rally, and teh EUR/USD should be pressured downward. |
| 1:22 | [Comment From graham]
Hi Nick, if the dollar went bullish, what effect on the gbp/usd do you think because i already think that it will get bearish |
| 1:23 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Oh, there goes the EUR./USD sliding as a result of the ADP report. |
| 1:24 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The Pound was under intense selling pressure to end last week, and has been in a slide since a high near 1.67 on September 11th. |
| 1:25 | Nick Nasad - CMS: This week, we have seen a correction to that downmove, and if we look at the swing high to low from 1.65 to 1.5775 and plot fibo levels we see a bounce down off the 50% level, which is today's high. |
| 1:26 | Nick Nasad - CMS: If risk aversion rules today's NY session, we may have a chance to see overnight gains pared down in the pair. However, the 1.60 level now becomes an importnat level, and may act as support. |
| 1:26 | [Comment From Guest]
where it will stop? the EUR/USD |
| 1:28 | Nick Nasad - CMS: If we look at the most recent swing from 1.46 to 1.4672, (rally during European session) we have already pared about 2/3rds of that rally. If we look at the rally from yesterday's low to today's high, and look at fibonacci levels, we are currecntly testing the 38.2% level, and have a chance to move to the 50% or 1.46. |
| 1:29 | [Comment From Guest]
And where You see EUR/USD at the end of the week? |
| 1:30 | Nick Nasad - CMS: I dont see the pair moving too far away from its current levels before Friday, as traders will want to square their positions heading into the Friday nonfarm paryoll report. |
| 1:31 | Nick Nasad - CMS: So, I would think that we will see some sideways trading in a band between 1.4530 and 1.4725, our low and high for this week. |
| 1:32 | Nick Nasad - CMS: We still have an important manufacturing report to come out tomorrow, the ISM index, which is expected to be a positive release, so that can help risk appetite prior to the nonfarm payroll. Then of course, what figures we get from the jobs report will be key to where we actually end the week. |
| 1:34 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The EUR/USD has found some support from a trendline connecting our low from last week, and today at 1.46, along with a 38.2% retracement level from the rally from yesterday's low to today's high. |
| 1:34 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The greenback is showing some signs of reversal in the USD/JPY which was weaker overnight as the greenback was generally weaker and today Japanese firms were repatriating funds back to Japan as part of the end of the fiscal year. |
| 1:35 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Increased risk aversion has been helping the greenback in this pair. |
| 1:35 | [Comment From stopped out]
EURCHF??? what is going on? |
| 1:35 | Nick Nasad - CMS: wow, that is a tell tale sign of central bank intervention. |
| 1:37 | Nick Nasad - CMS: There have been rumblings that the Swiss National Bank may use the latest ECB long-term refinancing operation to intervene in currency markets and halt the Franc's recent rise. |
| 1:38 | Nick Nasad - CMS: We last saw intervention on June 24th, but that was at the 1.50 level, and I was expecting the bank to let it slip to that level again before entering. |
| 1:38 | Nick Nasad - CMS: So our GDP figures are out, and the results are better than expected |
| 1:39 | Nick Nasad - CMS: GDP was revised to -0.7% from -1.0% when the consensus was a downward revision to -1.2% |
| 1:41 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Those figures are somewhat dated now, but they may still have an impact as the reason for the upward revision was better business spending in the quarter that initially thought. |
| 1:42 | Nick Nasad - CMS: That isnt helping risk sentiment though, and the greenback is gaingin further now against the EUro, approaching that 1.46 level. |
| 1:42 | [Comment From Guest]
How is GDP result ? |
| 1:43 | Nick Nasad - CMS: some figures on today's GDP release: The biggest component of GDP - consumer spending - decreased 0.9%, compared to the previously estimated 1.0% drop and the first quarter's 0.6% decrease. |
| 1:43 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The GDP component that includes spending on housing decreased 23.3%, compared to the previously estimated 22.8% tumble and the first quarter's 38.2% drop. |
| 1:44 | Nick Nasad - CMS: U.S. exports fell by 4.1% instead of 5.0% |
| 1:44 | Nick Nasad - CMS: U.S. business spending fell by 9.6%, revised up from a previously reported 10.9% decline.
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| 1:44 | [Comment From Guest]
So as you said EUR/USD should continue bullish corrective move? |
| 1:46 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Before the ADP data, the break of an important resistance trendline and better risk sentiment from overnight releases was supporting the Euro, but we have turned on a dime as a result of the ADP jobs report (mainly in the EUR/USD). |
| 1:47 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the pair is now dipping below 1.46 and we could have a move towards the 1.4575 area if greenback strength continues |
| 1:47 | Nick Nasad - CMS: that would be somewhere between a 61.8% and 76.4% retracements of the recent upswing |
| 1:47 | [Comment From Guest]
So how much did the gdp component of govt. spending increase? |
| 1:48 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Federal government spending rose 11.4%, revised from an earlier estimated 11.0% jump. |
| 1:49 | Nick Nasad - CMS: That is an important observation as around the world economies are going to have to grapple with government spending decreasing from their very high levels due to all the fiscal stimulus spending. That could create some headwinds in terms of the strength of the global recovery |
| 1:50 | Nick Nasad - CMS: It seems the greenback is doing most of its damage against the Euro currently, as the USD/JPY and USD/CAD pairs, for instance are showing subdued price action. |
| 1:50 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The GBP/USD has retraced 61.8% of its move from today's session. |
| 1:51 | [Comment From Guest]
So if GBP/USD will move through 1,60? where it can go? |
| 1:53 | Nick Nasad - CMS: If you take a step back with the GBP/USD you see a very interesting consolkidation pattern throughout most of the summer. It resembles a very long developing head and shoulders pattern. Recently we have been breaking key supports in this pair from a longer term persepective with this week's low one of the last levels left to test in that long sideways range. |
| 1:55 | Nick Nasad - CMS: We saw last week that the Bank of England governor said that a weak Pound would be good for the economy, and if the central bank continues to support the economy (aka loose monetary policy) than the Pound has a chance to break this week's low and fall further. Now, im not saying it will, but you have to monitor how price action behaves in teh coming days and weeks. Also, alot will depend on how the Nonfarm payroll release is recieved by the markets. |
| 1:55 | [Comment From Guest]
Very important. Without govt. spending or stimulus we are still falling off of a cliff. |
| 1:56 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Well, I wouldn't be that pessimistic. Sure, the US is heading through rough times, but compared to the 1st quarter things have improved. |
| 1:57 | Nick Nasad - CMS: We were losing more than 600K jobs a month in Jan-Feb, now expectations are for a 180K decline. Obviously not a good thing, but there are signs the labor market is improving somewhat. That's key now as consumer spending is very important to a recovery, and we just saw consumer confidence take a hit in September from the Conference Board release. |
| 1:58 | Nick Nasad - CMS: There are other indications that things are turning around, like positive manufacturing readings, some stabilization in the housing market, and stocks that have been rallying to levels seen last year. |
| 1:59 | Nick Nasad - CMS: still, the greenback is coming under pressure as the Fed is signaling that it may keep rates at their low levels for a longer amount of time that perhaps traders were speculating they would. That is an acknowledgment that loose monetary policy is still needed to help support the economic recovery. |
| 2:00 | [Comment From Guest]
When will USD turn bullish? Looking at the fundamentals, does the Euro not seem overvalued? |
| 2:01 | FXstreet.com: Sorry we have just 15 minutes left. Ask Nick anything you would like to know about the market. Do not miss this chance. |
| 2:03 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The Euro's rise to this level has been rather gradual, if you look back from April on. We saw the Euro jump to this level in early December when the Fed first moved to a zero-interest rate policy, but that initial rise was cut down. Now, we are again back near the 1.50 level following a summer of consolidation (if with an upward slant) |
| 2:04 | Nick Nasad - CMS: With the greenback suffering in this environment where it is no longer needed as a safe haven, and long term investors worry about the long term health of the dollar, there needs to be an alternative. The Euro is that alternative and its rise is a direct result of the greenback's weakness. |
| 2:06 | [Comment From JOSH]
Dont u feel the same drama is being played around previously it was known as green shoots now optimistic sounds from centralbankers the reality is global economy has not pickedup & everybody is dependent on each other as in the past. |
| 2:06 | [Comment From pbp]
when's the AUD rally ending? |
| 2:08 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Josh, I think the global economy has picked up. We saw Germany climb out of recession |
| 2:09 | Nick Nasad - CMS: New Zealand, Japan and Australia as well have shown positive growth in the second quarter. Just because alot of the growth is driven by help of governmetn stimulus it still counts. If people are buying cars or homes because of tax credits that is still helping teh economies. |
| 2:11 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the Aussie has been benefiting from the global economy beginning to get back on its feet. As long as traders see recovery and have risk appetite, the carry trade, with the Aussie being a major recipient should continue. We saw strong retial sales from Australia overnight which helped it to break above resistance at 0.8780 following a two-three week consolidation period. |
| 2:11 | Nick Nasad - CMS: It would be prudent to see if we retest that old resistance level as support. |
| 2:12 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The RBA meets next week as well, with a hawkish statement, aka a signal that the bank is ready to raise rates will only further support the Aussie. |
| 2:13 | [Comment From Jaydeep]
which economic indicator should i notice? |
| 2:14 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Jaydeep, today, we still have the Chicago PMI set to be released at 9:45 ET but for the rest of the week the two crucial reports to keep an eye would be the US ISM manufacturing PMI tomorrow, and friday's monthly US jobs report. |
| 2:14 | [Comment From Jaydeep]
i mean for pound? |
| 2:15 | FXstreet.com: We are short of time today, Sorry I have to wrap up the session. |
| 2:16 | Nick Nasad - CMS: those two i mention will still be important for the GBP/USD and risk sentiment in the overall markets, but for the UK the ones to look for this week would be the manufacturing PMI, and housing prices on Friday. Those two sectors will be important for recovery. |
| 2:16 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Allright everyone, I think my time is up. |
| 2:16 | FXstreet.com: Thank you Nick for the great market view!... and every one who has joined the session.
I have had a great time with you.
Many thanks to all the traders gathered here today for your participation! |
| 2:17 | FXstreet.com: final word Nick? |
| 2:18 | Nick Nasad - CMS: So, we came into today's GDP release with the greenback weaker overnight on higher risk appetite,. That was changed in the EUR/USD pair as teh ADP employment change report added some risk aversion. Our other pairs, except for a slide in Pound, were not affected as much. |
| 2:18 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Again, traders are likely being cautious prior to Friday's non-farm payroll release. |
| 2:18 | Nick Nasad - CMS: OK, and that will do it for me |
| 2:18 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Thank you very much for all your questions and comments. |
| 2:19 | FXstreet.com: Thank you again Nick. It's been a great tme with you. |
| 2:19 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Thank you for having me on, always a pleasure. |
| 2:20 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Good luck and good trading to everyone! Till next time, goodbye~ |
| 2:20 | [Comment From Thank you, Nick.]
Thank you, Nick. |
| 2:20 | [Comment From Jaydeep]
Thank you |
| 2:20 | [Comment From Inphi]
thanks |
| 2:20 | FXstreet.com: Thank you again for joining the live coverage. I hope to see you all in the next coverage! Bye for now. Have a beautiful day! Adios! |
| 2:20 | FXstreet.com: Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex. |
| 2:20 | FXstreet.com: Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.
|
| 2:20 | FXstreet.com: Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. |
| 2:21 | 
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Disclaimer: Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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