FXstreet.com Live Sessions Archives

The Dance of Debt--China and the United States

Expert: Joseph Trevisani, Chief Market Analyst at FX Solutions
Moderator: Maud Gilson

Summary:
When yields on the 10 Year Treasury note were climbing to 4.0% last spring bond traders fears were focused three items: the Federal Reserve’s liquidity provisions, the Obama administration’s ten year deficit projections and the inflationary potential of both programs. The collapse in Treasury prices prompted the Fed’s entry into the Treasury market. Its $300 billon program to purchase government debt led to suspicions that the US Government had embarked on direct monetization of its debt, printing dollars to make up for the revenues it no longer had.

Chinese officials warned the US government to be mindful of its status as the world's largest holder of US debt and cautioned Washington to act as a careful custodian of its currency. But rhetoric aside, the Chinese had reasons of their own to fear what would have been a dangerous fall in the Treasury markets and the consequent rise in American interest rates.

GDP Live Coverage

US GDP Live Coverage Release with Nick Nasad

(09/30/2009)

  

Close

1:10	FXstreet.com:  Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

1:10

FXstreet.com:  Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

1:11	FXstreet.com:  Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex.

1:12

FXstreet.com:  Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's U.S. GDP Live Coverage will start shortly. I am really pleased to introduce Nick Nasad who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. He will be giving us a direct picture for the market status.

1:12

FXstreet.com:  Nick Nasad is a currency market analyst with CMS Forex for the last 3 years. He closely monitors fundamental releases and reports their results and provides commentary to the company's clients through CMS Forex's interactive economic calendar Forex Capsule and through daily Forex market video recaps. He has also written extensive educational material on using technical analysis in trading Forex.

1:12	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Thank you for the kind introduction, and hello to everyone participating in today's live coverage!

1:13	Nick Nasad - CMS:  As we await the release of the US GDP release, lets see what has been happening so far in today's session.

1:13	FXstreet.com:  Hi Nick! welcome to the US GDP live coverage

1:13

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1:14

What do you anticipate the outcome of U.S. GDP? Good result and bullish for the USD  ( 60% ) Good result but bearish for the USD  ( 0% ) Expected result and low volatility  ( 20% ) Bad result and bearish for the USD  ( 0% ) Bad result but bullish for the USD  ( 0% ) Not much impact on the USD  ( 20% )

1:15	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Overnight we have seen the greenback sliding, as positive data from around the globe helped to increase risk appetite. We saw Australia retail sales jump, a drop in unemployment in Germany, and a sharp improvement in UK consumer confidence.

1:16	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The good news helped the EUR/USD to break a recent downward sloping line of resistance, (connecting the highs since September 23'rd high at 1.4840) signalling we may see a correction now..

1:17	Nick Nasad - CMS:  A further correction of the downmove from 1.4850 to 1.4525. In European trading we saw the apir move above the 38.2% fibo retracement of that 5 session downmove.

1:18	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Right now, we should take a look at the ADP employment change, as that release is a curtain raiser for the more important non-farm payroll release coming Friday.

1:18	[Comment From Guest] What will be the direction of EUR/USD?

1:19

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1:20	Nick Nasad - CMS:  RIght now the rally in the Euro stalled out a bit at the 1.4672 high, but like i mentioned we have had a break of our downward sloping line of resistance. Traders will look for the ADP figure, and today's Chicago PMI to gauge risk sentiment

1:20	Nick Nasad - CMS:  so the ADP release showed the private-sector shedding 254K jobs in September.

1:21	Nick Nasad - CMS:  thats was a higher figure than expected (240K), and may cause economists to lift up slightly their estimates for job losses in Friday's government employment report. The consensus right now (from Dow Jones) is for a loss of 175,000

1:22	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Lets see if we have a reaction to the news, so far, the GBP/USD is showing a bit of topping action to its rally, and teh EUR/USD should be pressured downward.

1:22	[Comment From graham] Hi Nick, if the dollar went bullish, what effect on the gbp/usd do you think because i already think that it will get bearish

1:23	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Oh, there goes the EUR./USD sliding as a result of the ADP report.

1:24	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Pound was under intense selling pressure to end last week, and has been in a slide since a high near 1.67 on September 11th.

1:25	Nick Nasad - CMS:  This week, we have seen a correction to that downmove, and if we look at the swing high to low from 1.65 to 1.5775 and plot fibo levels we see a bounce down off the 50% level, which is today's high.

1:26	Nick Nasad - CMS:  If risk aversion rules today's NY session, we may have a chance to see overnight gains pared down in the pair. However, the 1.60 level now becomes an importnat level, and may act as support.

1:26	[Comment From Guest] where it will stop? the EUR/USD

1:27

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1:28

Nick Nasad - CMS:  If we look at the most recent swing from 1.46 to 1.4672, (rally during European session) we have already pared about 2/3rds of that rally. If we look at the rally from yesterday's low to today's high, and look at fibonacci levels, we are currecntly testing the 38.2% level, and have a chance to move to the 50% or 1.46.

1:29	[Comment From Guest] And where You see EUR/USD at the end of the week?

1:30	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I dont see the pair moving too far away from its current levels before Friday, as traders will want to square their positions heading into the Friday nonfarm paryoll report.

1:31	Nick Nasad - CMS:  So, I would think that we will see some sideways trading in a band between 1.4530 and 1.4725, our low and high for this week.

1:32

Nick Nasad - CMS:  We still have an important manufacturing report to come out tomorrow, the ISM index, which is expected to be a positive release, so that can help risk appetite prior to the nonfarm payroll. Then of course, what figures we get from the jobs report will be key to where we actually end the week.

1:34	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The EUR/USD has found some support from a trendline connecting our low from last week, and today at 1.46, along with a 38.2% retracement level from the rally from yesterday's low to today's high.

1:34	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The greenback is showing some signs of reversal in the USD/JPY which was weaker overnight as the greenback was generally weaker and today Japanese firms were repatriating funds back to Japan as part of the end of the fiscal year.

1:35	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Increased risk aversion has been helping the greenback in this pair.

1:35	[Comment From stopped out] EURCHF??? what is going on?

1:35	Nick Nasad - CMS:  wow, that is a tell tale sign of central bank intervention.

1:37

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1:37	Nick Nasad - CMS:  There have been rumblings that the Swiss National Bank may use the latest ECB long-term refinancing operation to intervene in currency markets and halt the Franc's recent rise.

1:38	Nick Nasad - CMS:  We last saw intervention on June 24th, but that was at the 1.50 level, and I was expecting the bank to let it slip to that level again before entering.

1:38	Nick Nasad - CMS:  So our GDP figures are out, and the results are better than expected

1:39	Nick Nasad - CMS:  GDP was revised to -0.7% from -1.0% when the consensus was a downward revision to -1.2%

1:41	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Those figures are somewhat dated now, but they may still have an impact as the reason for the upward revision was better business spending in the quarter that initially thought.

1:42	Nick Nasad - CMS:  That isnt helping risk sentiment though, and the greenback is gaingin further now against the EUro, approaching that 1.46 level.

1:42	[Comment From Guest] How is GDP result ?

1:43	Nick Nasad - CMS:  some figures on today's GDP release: The biggest component of GDP - consumer spending - decreased 0.9%, compared to the previously estimated 1.0% drop and the first quarter's 0.6% decrease.

1:43	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The GDP component that includes spending on housing decreased 23.3%, compared to the previously estimated 22.8% tumble and the first quarter's 38.2% drop.

1:44	Nick Nasad - CMS:  U.S. exports fell by 4.1% instead of 5.0%

1:44	Nick Nasad - CMS:  U.S. business spending fell by 9.6%, revised up from a previously reported 10.9% decline.

1:44	[Comment From Guest] So as you said EUR/USD should continue bullish corrective move?

1:45

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1:46	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Before the ADP data, the break of an important resistance trendline and better risk sentiment from overnight releases was supporting the Euro, but we have turned on a dime as a result of the ADP jobs report (mainly in the EUR/USD).

1:47	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the pair is now dipping below 1.46 and we could have a move towards the 1.4575 area if greenback strength continues

1:47	FXstreet.com:  Here you can take a look at the official data http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

1:47	Nick Nasad - CMS:  that would be somewhere between a 61.8% and 76.4% retracements of the recent upswing

1:47	[Comment From Guest] So how much did the gdp component of govt. spending increase?

1:48	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Federal government spending rose 11.4%, revised from an earlier estimated 11.0% jump.

1:49	Nick Nasad - CMS:  That is an important observation as around the world economies are going to have to grapple with government spending decreasing from their very high levels due to all the fiscal stimulus spending. That could create some headwinds in terms of the strength of the global recovery

1:50	Nick Nasad - CMS:  It seems the greenback is doing most of its damage against the Euro currently, as the USD/JPY and USD/CAD pairs, for instance are showing subdued price action.

1:50	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The GBP/USD has retraced 61.8% of its move from today's session.

1:51	[Comment From Guest] So if GBP/USD will move through 1,60? where it can go?

1:53

Nick Nasad - CMS:  If you take a step back with the GBP/USD you see a very interesting consolkidation pattern throughout most of the summer. It resembles a very long developing head and shoulders pattern. Recently we have been breaking key supports in this pair from a longer term persepective with this week's low one of the last levels left to test in that long sideways range.

1:54

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1:55

Nick Nasad - CMS:  We saw last week that the Bank of England governor said that a weak Pound would be good for the economy, and if the central bank continues to support the economy (aka loose monetary policy) than the Pound has a chance to break this week's low and fall further. Now, im not saying it will, but you have to monitor how price action behaves in teh coming days and weeks. Also, alot will depend on how the Nonfarm payroll release is recieved by the markets.

1:55	[Comment From Guest] Very important. Without govt. spending or stimulus we are still falling off of a cliff.

1:56	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Well, I wouldn't be that pessimistic. Sure, the US is heading through rough times, but compared to the 1st quarter things have improved.

1:57

Nick Nasad - CMS:  We were losing more than 600K jobs a month in Jan-Feb, now expectations are for a 180K decline. Obviously not a good thing, but there are signs the labor market is improving somewhat. That's key now as consumer spending is very important to a recovery, and we just saw consumer confidence take a hit in September from the Conference Board release.

1:58	Nick Nasad - CMS:  There are other indications that things are turning around, like positive manufacturing readings, some stabilization in the housing market, and stocks that have been rallying to levels seen last year.

1:59

Nick Nasad - CMS:  still, the greenback is coming under pressure as the Fed is signaling that it may keep rates at their low levels for a longer amount of time that perhaps traders were speculating they would. That is an acknowledgment that loose monetary policy is still needed to help support the economic recovery.

2:00	[Comment From Guest] When will USD turn bullish? Looking at the fundamentals, does the Euro not seem overvalued?

2:01	FXstreet.com:  Sorry we have just 15 minutes left. Ask Nick anything you would like to know about the market. Do not miss this chance.

2:01

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2:03

Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Euro's rise to this level has been rather gradual, if you look back from April on. We saw the Euro jump to this level in early December when the Fed first moved to a zero-interest rate policy, but that initial rise was cut down. Now, we are again back near the 1.50 level following a summer of consolidation (if with an upward slant)

2:04

Nick Nasad - CMS:  With the greenback suffering in this environment where it is no longer needed as a safe haven, and long term investors worry about the long term health of the dollar, there needs to be an alternative. The Euro is that alternative and its rise is a direct result of the greenback's weakness.

2:06	[Comment From JOSH] Dont u feel the same drama is being played around previously it was known as green shoots now optimistic sounds from centralbankers the reality is global economy has not pickedup & everybody is dependent on each other as in the past.

2:06	[Comment From pbp] when's the AUD rally ending?

2:08

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2:08	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Josh, I think the global economy has picked up. We saw Germany climb out of recession

2:09	Nick Nasad - CMS:  New Zealand, Japan and Australia as well have shown positive growth in the second quarter. Just because alot of the growth is driven by help of governmetn stimulus it still counts. If people are buying cars or homes because of tax credits that is still helping teh economies.

2:11

Nick Nasad - CMS:  the Aussie has been benefiting from the global economy beginning to get back on its feet. As long as traders see recovery and have risk appetite, the carry trade, with the Aussie being a major recipient should continue. We saw strong retial sales from Australia overnight which helped it to break above resistance at 0.8780 following a two-three week consolidation period.

2:11	Nick Nasad - CMS:  It would be prudent to see if we retest that old resistance level as support.

2:12	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The RBA meets next week as well, with a hawkish statement, aka a signal that the bank is ready to raise rates will only further support the Aussie.

2:13	[Comment From Jaydeep] which economic indicator should i notice?

2:14	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Jaydeep, today, we still have the Chicago PMI set to be released at 9:45 ET but for the rest of the week the two crucial reports to keep an eye would be the US ISM manufacturing PMI tomorrow, and friday's monthly US jobs report.

2:14	[Comment From Jaydeep] i mean for pound?

2:15	FXstreet.com:  We are short of time today, Sorry I have to wrap up the session.

2:16	Nick Nasad - CMS:  those two i mention will still be important for the GBP/USD and risk sentiment in the overall markets, but for the UK the ones to look for this week would be the manufacturing PMI, and housing prices on Friday. Those two sectors will be important for recovery.

2:16	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Allright everyone, I think my time is up.

2:16	FXstreet.com:  Thank you Nick for the great market view!... and every one who has joined the session. I have had a great time with you. Many thanks to all the traders gathered here today for your participation!

2:17	FXstreet.com:  final word Nick?

2:18	Nick Nasad - CMS:  So, we came into today's GDP release with the greenback weaker overnight on higher risk appetite,. That was changed in the EUR/USD pair as teh ADP employment change report added some risk aversion. Our other pairs, except for a slide in Pound, were not affected as much.

2:18	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Again, traders are likely being cautious prior to Friday's non-farm payroll release.

2:18	Nick Nasad - CMS:  OK, and that will do it for me

2:18	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Thank you very much for all your questions and comments.

2:19	FXstreet.com:  Thank you again Nick. It's been a great tme with you.

2:19	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Thank you for having me on, always a pleasure.

2:20	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Good luck and good trading to everyone! Till next time, goodbye~

2:20	[Comment From Thank you, Nick.] Thank you, Nick.

2:20	[Comment From Jaydeep] Thank you

2:20	[Comment From Inphi] thanks

2:20	FXstreet.com:   Thank you again for joining the live coverage. I hope to see you all in the next coverage! Bye for now. Have a beautiful day! Adios!

2:20	FXstreet.com:  Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex.

2:20	FXstreet.com:  Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

2:20

FXstreet.com:  Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

2:21

Disclaimer: Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Unlocking the Forex broker selection confusion

Expert: Javier Paz, Principal at ForexDatasource.com
Moderator: Maud Gilson

Summary:

This webinar will:

1. Explain how brokers operate: how they make money, how they show prices, how they process trades, how they solve disputes, how they are regulated

2. Educate traders on the key points that can make their broker selection a happy experience thereafter: identify what priorities make your needs unique, find compatible brokers whose main attributes match the client’s particular needs, know how to monitor broker performance

3. Alert them of resources available to them to carry out the broker due diligence

Getting ready to trade October

Expert: Adam Rosen, CEO and Co-Founder at 4xLounge
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
October earnings season is known to be one of the most volatile months of the year. We will examine which trading strategies are best suited to trade the month of October.

FX Market Pulse

Expert: Raghee Horner, Trader and Author at Raghee.com
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
Join Raghee Horner as she walks you through her "market pulse" charts and shows you the importance of futures market correlations for your Forex trading. Get the pulse of U.S. Dollar, crude oil, Dow, and gold direction to better trade the Forex majors and commodity currencies. Raghee will walk you through each step of these correlations making this presentation a very strategic session each week.

Live Coverage: Fed Interest Rate Decision

Fed Interest Rates Decision

(09/23/2009)

  

Close

6:58	FXstreet.com:  Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

6:59

FXstreet.com:  Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

6:59	FXstreet.com:  Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex.

6:59

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7:00

FXstreet.com:  Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's Fed Interest Rates Decison will start shortly. I am really happy to introduce Nick Nasad who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. He will be giving us a direct picture for the market status.

7:00

FXstreet.com:  Nick Nasad is a currency market analyst with CMS Forex for the last 3 years. He closely monitors fundamental releases and reports their results and provides commentary to the company's clients through CMS Forex's interactive economic calendar Forex Capsule and through daily Forex market video recaps. He has also written extensive educational material on using technical analysis in trading Forex.

7:01	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Hello everyone, and thank you FX Street for having me on again

7:02	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Today's Fed meeting is important as we are at a bit of a crossroads in the currency markets.

7:02	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Following a summer where consolidation was the main theme, we have seen the Dollar fall to one-year lows against the Euro

7:04

Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Fed decision can hurt or help the Dollar. If we see a statement similar to last month, with perhaps an acknowledgment that the economy is showing signs of recovery, but no talk of an exit strategy from low interest rates, then the overriding theme of dollar weakness should continue..

7:04	Nick Nasad - CMS:  A hawkish tone would result from language that the economy is recovering and that excess stimulus and capacity in the system will need to be addressed.

7:06	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I don't see much chance that the Fed will move away from their language that they will keep interest rates low for "an extended time" but how they approach ending their stimulative measures, like asset-purchases and Treasury purchases will be the key.

7:06	Nick Nasad - CMS:  i will get to some questions, after we post a poll..

7:06	FXstreet.com:  Thanks Nick

7:06	FXstreet.com:  We will now hear the opinion of everyone then... through this little poll

7:07

what USD reaction do you anticipate after the decision today? USD soars against the other majors.  ( 27% ) USD gains slightly.  ( 30% ) USD shows sharp decline.  ( 15% ) USD shows less than expected dip.  ( 0% ) USD wildly swings up and down.  ( 18% ) USD does not show much reaction (low volatility).  ( 9% )

7:07	Nick Nasad - CMS:  So in short, a more status quo statement could intensify pressure on the U.S. currency or at least leave recent selling pressure unchecked while any talk of an "exit strategy" has the potential to help the greenback.

7:10	[Comment From Hi Nick] where do you see euro ?is it time to build sell positions 14800-50-70 thx

7:12

Nick Nasad - CMS:  since breaking out of its consolidation patter to end August, we have seen a rather strong rally in the EUR/USD, but that alone shouldn't make one think that we are due for a fall.. The rally since September 8th has been rather paced, in that we have seen retracements (like the three session downmove between sept 17-21) that is followed by futher gains.

7:12	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The situation remains that the global recovery seems to be on track, fundamental data is improving, as are stocks. With no mention about raising rates, the factors are aligned for further Dollar weakness.

7:14	[Comment From nejo] Hello nick!Do you think eur-usd could resume uptrend after fed desicion.my target is 1.4840 resistance

7:15	Nick Nasad - CMS:  looking at the swing low to high for this week, we had a retracement to almost the 50% level, with the 1.4750 area a strong psychological level. So far, the greenback has managed to stay above that level, though we are in a bit of consolidation now.

7:16	Nick Nasad - CMS:  a better assessment of the economy can help bolster the greenback,

7:17	FXstreet.com:  Fed Leaves Discount Rate At 0.5%

7:17	Nick Nasad - CMS:  however, that is likely priced in. ok, the release is out, and we have a big jump initially in favor of the Euro

7:17	Nick Nasad - CMS:  "With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time."

7:18	Nick Nasad - CMS:  "The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. "

7:18

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7:19	Nick Nasad - CMS:  there does not seem to be much change here to the Fed's program, and no mention of an exit strategy

7:19	Nick Nasad - CMS:  so, we are having further greenback weakness as as result.

7:20	[Comment From Anthony] With the intense selling pressure that we have seen and focus on future inflation how is it possible that the FED does not focus on an exit strategy?

7:21	FXstreet.com:  FED's official press release: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20090923a.htm

7:22

Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Fed doesn't see inflation as a concern yet, and that is being borne out in inflation readings like CPI. But, even with inflation a concern, the Fed is being very cautious about hinting at interest rate increases. For one, expectations ofor a higher federal funds rate will push up yields on 10-year Treasury notes, increasing mortgage costs. Second, members on the FOMC might also be concerned about embracing the stronger growth story too quickly, which could lead the market to price in sooner rate hikes and tigher financial conditions than they would like,

7:23	Nick Nasad - CMS:  So, behind closed they are likely concerned, but they do not want to send the signal to the markets right now that rates are going to be going up.

7:24	Nick Nasad - CMS:  pretty strong reaction in the USD/JPY pair

7:24	[Comment From pbp] this may sound dumb, but who is keeping the dollar weak, i know for a fact a lot of folks are in long positions in say the chf pair

7:25	Nick Nasad - CMS:  the correlation is interesting as US stocks are moving higher, which we have seen recently is helping the Yen and not the greenback, as the US Dollar is becoming the main funding currency for carry trade.

7:26

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7:27

Nick Nasad - CMS:  pbp, what we are seeing is that the greenback has lost its allure as a safe haven with the global economy beginning to recover. That means we may be moving away from the back and forth risk appetite/risk aversion story and traders are betting that the greenback with its low interest rates will continue to be pressured.

7:27	[Comment From Malcolm] Hi...What are your comments re cable, I see we re still bearish long term on the cross...(1.6567 around)

7:29	FXstreet.com:  FXstreet.com News: FED leaves rates unchanged; Dollar plunges across the board

7:29	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Pound has been an interesting currency recently as there are still some pretty big concerns around the economy. The GBP/USD pair did bounce up off an importnat long term support level (connecting lows from Jul 7th and Sept 2nd)

7:29	Nick Nasad - CMS:  looking at the pair's price action since hitting 1.70 though, we are seeing what could be a very long term head and shoulders pattern emerging with that support line as the neckline.

7:31	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Following the decline recently in the pair from 1.6740 to 1.6140, the recent upmove is about a 50% retracement and i see you are targetting the high from last thursday.

7:32	Nick Nasad - CMS:  I think greenback weakness may get it there, as right now the fundamentals are not very supportive of the Pound.

7:33	[Comment From raulin] market needed to see Fed saying there was going to be an exit to QE it did not happen

7:34	[Comment From X-men] Fed no exit.. because they don't see any strong reason to make an exist strategy, it is too soon yet to believe the worse is behind us... they had to hang measures to create the condition of exit strategies...

7:34	Nick Nasad - CMS:  very good comments here.

7:36	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Fed's concern is nursing this recovery, and higher rates as we mentioned will hamper their efforts to stabilize the housing sector,

7:37	Nick Nasad - CMS:  However, that presents the possibility that the Fed will begin soaking up the extra liquidity it has put into the credit markets too late, and create concerns over inflation. its a double edged sword, with the Fed remaining cautious and putting inflation concerns off.

7:38	[Comment From pbp] Thanks. How shall the reaction of the feds to the "behind closed doors concerns" weakened dollar be seen by amateur traders like myself? In other words what signs shall I see that the majors such as the EUR and CHF are about to reverse.

7:38	[Comment From lucian] can we expect a recovery in usd/chf and a drop in aud/usd? as they did one sided moves quite long now

7:42

Nick Nasad - CMS:  From a fundamental perspective, the decline in the Dollar has only a few ways of stalling.. We are going to have your garden-variety pullbacks and retracements of course, but unless there is another big shock to the financial system (banks failing, etc) or indications by the Fed that they are ready to raise rate, the greenback shoudl remain pressured.

7:43	Nick Nasad - CMS:  now with the swiss franc, its interesting that the two currencies have switched roles, similar to the USD/JPY, where risk aversion used to favor the Swiss Franc and Yen while the greenback would weaken.. Now we are seeing alot more US carry trade.

7:44	Nick Nasad - CMS:  For the Swiss Franc though, the Swiss National Bank has reiterated its intent to keep the currency from strengthening against the Euro, that can translate to the Dollar as well, especially as we approach the parity level.

7:44	[Comment From raulin] the Fed does not want to tank the markets they are scared of that .

7:46	Nick Nasad - CMS:  raulin, that is a very good point, and one i wanted to mention. With the Dow approaching 10,000 it would be a shame to ruin that.. huh..?

7:47	FXstreet.com:  FXstreet.com NEWS: Federal Reserve will leave rates on hold at 0.25% for a long time

7:47	[Comment From Ylber] In EUR/USD there is a double top around 1.4843. Could this be important, considering bull direction or just a trap for opposite of big dogs?

7:49

Nick Nasad - CMS:  im not sure if its a trap, but we have definetly had a strong rejection of the initial move, with the pair returning to its levels prior to the FOMC announcement. Really, there wasnt much new from the Fed, and though that caused some initial appetite to sell the Dollar, its wasnt enough, yet, to let the Euro keep its gains.. aka, traders may have priced in today's announcement (since it was pretty close to keeping the status quo in terms of policy), minus the more knee-jerk reaction.

7:51	[Comment From silv500] If the Dollar was so weak, EUR, AUD and NZD should have rised a lot more

7:51

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7:52	Nick Nasad - CMS:  silv, thats a good point,..

7:53	Nick Nasad - CMS:  what i would take away is that the Fed announcement hasn't changed to underlying dynamics of the market

7:55	Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Kiwi has been a very strong performer against the dollar recently, but after strong gains yesterday and in the wake of its better than expected GDP, it may be a bit overbought at this point.

7:56

Nick Nasad - CMS:  The Aussie is having a hard time penetrating the 0.8790 area, but that can change pretty soon. In other words, if you have a trade set-up looking for a break of resistance, expecting the Aussie to keep rallying, keep watching for it. The Fed announcement was not the event to push it above that level.

7:57	[Comment From Bob] this seems to be what everyone expected, but at the same time it is also the end of the day for trading in NY so we might see a big move tomorrow or in the asian session

7:59	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Bob, you have a good point. US stocks rose following the news, but are already giving up some of those loftier gains. When traders get a chance to digest the statement, those expecting a more hawkish one will be disappointed.

8:00	Nick Nasad - CMS:  traders in other countries*

8:01	[Comment From silv500] USDCHF going to 1.06 , range bound for some weeks?

8:03

Nick Nasad - CMS:  For a swing position trader, if the pair find support following this downward channel, it would seem logical that that is a good target as there was no retest of that level following its break. The down move was fairly slow and steady, but this week we are seeing a bit of a pick up in volatility. We are coming to the bottom of the EUR/CHF range as well which could give teh Swiss Franc pause in strengthening further.

8:04	Nick Nasad - CMS:  A lower level of resistance for the USD/CHF that was tested, though briefly, was 1.0460

8:05	[Comment From Rio] so? where is GBP/USD heading... I am slightly confused by the swing following the decision...

8:08

Nick Nasad - CMS:  the sing following the decision is likely a bit of noise at this point since the statement was close to what was expected. The thing to look for now is what happens with this recent rally this week. Plotting Fibonacci levels from 1.6740 to 1.6132 (the decline in the pair last week) we see that the rally has stalled at the 50% retracement level, with the intra-day high we jsut say poking above that retracemetn level.

8:11

Nick Nasad - CMS:  that means we are at a critical point for this pair and its very important to monitor where the pair heads. From a fundamental point of view, the recent trouble in the UK financial sector (focusing on Lloyd's), high unemployment, and conerns over the budget deficit can put more pressure on the Bank of England to continue its stimulative measures. The chacne that the BOE would expand its QE program was one of the main reasons the Pound has been weak

8:12	Nick Nasad - CMS:  sorry guys im running out of time so I will take a final question.

8:13	[Comment From fxdc] eu seems to be in a narrow channel after the spike,consolidaion before resuming upmove?

8:15

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8:16

Nick Nasad - CMS:  it seems that the rejection of the move upwards will like you said put this pair into some sideways trading. Look for support at 1.4750 if we see the greenback move lower today, but like i said earlier, today's announcement really doesn't change the underlying dynamics that we have seen in the currency markets. Im sure behind the scenes there is much discussion about exit strategy and when it will be time to soak up the extra liquidity.., however, the Fed does not want to have that discussion in front of the public as right now lower rates and borrowing costs are what they believe is needed to keep the economy supported.

8:17	Nick Nasad - CMS:  allright, that is a good place to stop

8:17	FXstreet.com:  I would like to thak Nick Nasad for his collaboration again today, his comments and insights. I hope you have enjoyed.

8:17

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8:18	Nick Nasad - CMS:  thank you so much for the questions and comments, and my apologies to those people that may not have had their questions posted.

8:19	FXstreet.com:  We just have time for a quick Wrap up, Nick, about today's Fed meeting...

8:20	Nick Nasad - CMS:  So in closing, today's announcement didnt hold much in teh way of surprises. The Fed, though seeing improvement in the economy does not want to take away the support it has been providing with its low rates and its asset-purchase programs

8:21

Nick Nasad - CMS:  that should continue to pressure the greenback. Look for any hints about higher rates to come from Fed officials in speeches now until we get to next month's FOMC decision. However it seems that the inflation is not seen as a big threat right now by the Fed, and until indicators like CPI turn upwards (annual rates) then they will continue this policy until they feel the recovery is on firm ground.

8:22	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Again, thank you for your attention, and FX Street for having me on..

8:23	Nick Nasad - CMS:  wish you all the best in your trading, and see you next time

8:23	FXstreet.com:  Nick will be with us again next week for the US GDP Live Coverage, from here again, the homepage of FXstreet.com! It will be on 9/30/2009. Meet you all here next Wednesday then! Thanks!

8:23	[Comment From Guest] I would like to thak Nick Nasad for his collaboration again today, his comments and insights. I hope you have enjoyed.

8:23	FXstreet.com:  Thanks to all for attending this live coverage!

8:24	FXstreet.com:  Good trading to all!

8:24	FXstreet.com:  Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex.

8:24	Nick Nasad - CMS:  Goodbye~

8:24

FXstreet.com:  Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

8:25

Disclaimer: Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

London Session Scenarios on GBPUSD & GBPJPY

Expert: Mihai Marinescu, Website Manager & Trader at TradeCADJPY.com
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
In this webinar, FXInstructor.com trader and mentor Mihai Marinescu will first have a look at GBPUSD & GBPJPY from an Elliott Wave perspective. After drawing the big picture for these pairs in near-term and mid-term, he will point out possible entries and manage existing trades with a comprehensive and efficient short-term strategy. Join us for a free analysis & trading session during peak market hours!

FX Market Pulse

Expert: Raghee Horner, Trader and Author at Raghee.com
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
Join Raghee Horner as she walks you through her "market pulse" charts and shows you the importance of futures market correlations for your Forex trading. Get the pulse of U.S. Dollar, crude oil, Dow, and gold direction to better trade the Forex majors and commodity currencies. Raghee will walk you through each step of these correlations making this presentation a very strategic session each week.

The Weather Report: Ichimoku Cloud Trading

Expert: Chris Capre, Founder at Second Skies LLC
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
Many traders have had challenges trading the JPY pairs. However the Japanese traders have had large amounts of success in trading their native currency. This is not just due to familiarity, but the approach and indicators they use to measure key levels for these pairs - the Ichimoku Cloud.

This indicator is not only easy to learn, but highly accurate in giving JPY trading signals. When one learns how to use it correctly, one can build a very high accuracy and profit ratio trading the JPY pairs which can be some of the most volatile. Taking this class can give you a chance to master trading the yen and learn a unique approach to trading the asian pairs as a whole.

Ichimoku is included in our "Live chart Panel": http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/charts-panel/

Derek Frey's Outlook

Expert: Derek Frey, Senior Market Strategist at ForexTradersDaily.com
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
Derek Frey, Head Trader at Odom & Frey Futures Options and FOREX, will walk you through his weekly FOREX newsletter and offer you extensive insight into how, where, and why he feels the currency markets will move for the week ahead. The great part about this is, it is an open session in which he will answer any and all market related questions, giving you the chance to pick the brain of an experienced trader.