| Non-Farm Payrolls Release Live Coverage with Nick Nasad | (09/04/2009) |
| 1:16 | FXstreet.com: Information and opinions contained in this COver-it-Live session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations. |
| 1:16 | FXstreet.com: Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. |
| 1:17 | FXstreet.com: Todayfs sponsor is CMS Forex. |
| 1:18 | FXstreet.com: Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world.
Today's U.S. NFP Live Coverage is starting now. I am really happy to introduce Nick Nasad who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter.
He will be giving us a direct picture for the market status. |
| 1:18 | FXstreet.com: Nick Nasad is a currency market analyst with CMS Forex for the last 3 years. He closely monitors fundamental releases and reports their results and provides commentary to the company's clients through CMS Forex's interactive economic calendar Forex Capsule and through daily Forex market video recaps. He has also written extensive educational material on using technical analysis in trading Forex. |
| 1:18 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Hello everyone, and thank you fxstreet for having me on. |
| 1:19 | [Comment From okey]
hi nick |
| 1:19 | [Comment From Dusan]
Hello Nick, what is your personal guess on NFP figure and what EUR/USD direction do you expect? |
| 1:19 | What do you anticipate the outcome of NFP?Better than expected and bullish for the USD Better than expected but bearish for the USD Worse than expected and bearish for the USD Worse than expected but bullish for the USD Not much impact on the USD |
| 1:21 | Nick Nasad - CMS: I am anticipating a print that reads close to the consensus forecasts of a -223K, we've had some better figures from some of our other employment indicators, such as better readings from teh ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indeses, we saw teh ADP employment change contract at its smallest pace in 11 months, same with teh Challenger Job cuts.. |
| 1:22 | Nick Nasad - CMS: On the other hand that ADP reading did come in higher than expected as did yesterday's jobless claims.. Overall though, its seems that though the pace of firings continues in teh US, we should see an easing of the number of jobs lost. |
| 1:22 | [Comment From pepa]
which is more important NFP or Unemployment rate? |
| 1:23 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Its an important question as if the headline number comes in around forecasts, where the unemployment number goes can have an impact as well, last month markets were surprised by the rate decreasing. We should see the unemployment rise today though, likely to 9.5%. |
| 1:24 | Nick Nasad - CMS: now, the EUR/USD has been trading rather dull this session, as traders do not take on bets in advance of the release. |
| 1:24 | FXstreet.com: 5 minutes to go |
| 1:24 | Nick Nasad - CMS: A figure that is slighlty better than last month has been priced in to the market, so if we have a better than forecast figure, we may see the Euro attempting to extend its gains. |
| 1:25 | FXstreet.com: Todayfs sponsor is CMS Forex. |
| 1:26 | Nick Nasad - CMS: However, one thing to consider is that we have a US holiday on Monday, which ends the holiday season, though for now we still have lighter liquidity than normal. That can either cause a dull reaction, or exacerbate a jump if the headline print is sharply different than forecasts. |
| 1:27 | [Comment From nagalla]
WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF NFP SHOWS SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT........... |
| 1:27 | Nick Nasad - CMS: A slight improvement from last month's data is likely priced in as we have seen some risk appetite in the market the past couple of sessions, which has weakend the greenback. |
| 1:27 | [Comment From Tony]
Hi Nick! What direction do you expect the GBP/USD to go? |
| 1:27 | [Comment From Phin]
Nick, can you comment on the NFP's impact on the GBP/JPY? |
| 1:29 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The Pound is one currency that had been coming under pressure, both against the Dollar and Yen, but this week found some support and counter-rally somewhat. |
| 1:31 | FXstreet.com: Non Farm Payrolls -216K Consensus -233K
Unemployment Rate 9.7% Consensus 9.5% |
| 1:31 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The GBP/USD is running up against an important level of resistance (the 1.64 area) which could determine whether it falls back down towards its recent support at 1.61, or if it extends its recent rally to the 1.6550 resistance. The Pound regained its footing after it was bid down in response to the BOE expanding their quantitative easing program, some weak lending data, and falling gilt prices. |
| 1:33 | FXstreet.com: NNon Farm Payrolls -216K Consensus -233K
Unemployment Rate 9.7% Consensus 9.5% |
| 1:33 | Nick Nasad - CMS: so even though we have a better than expected headline number pointing to risk appetite, the jump in the unemployment rate can push risk aversion. we have some immediate Euro buying, while the greenback is sliding against the yen. |
| 1:33 | Nick Nasad - CMS: A higher unemployment rate goes a long way in hurting the psyche of the consumer |
| 1:34 | Nick Nasad - CMS: How consumer spending rebounds following this recession will determine how the economy recovers, and alot of that rides on the employment picture. |
| 1:34 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the USD/JPY pared those initial losses very quickly |
| 1:35 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The Aussie is rallying, on risk appetite, and run up against its very important level of resistance. |
| 1:36 | Nick Nasad - CMS: We have seen the 0.8460 act as resistance for the whole month of August, and following Australia's better GDP growth in the 2nd quarter, the pressure to break that level is building. |
| 1:36 | [Comment From jayjay]
on eur/usd where will the market go ? |
| 1:37 | [Comment From pepa]
do you think eur/usd at 1.4390 |
| 1:37 | FXstreet.com: Non Farm Payrolls -216K Consensus -233K
Unemployment Rate 9.7% Consensus 9.5% |
| 1:38 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The EUR/USD is showing some very muted reaction, and indecision following the release. Traders are seeing the dual factors of a better headline print but weaker unemployment rate and so we dont have an overriding direction to our move. If we look at the USD/JPY we see a big gains in favor of the Greenback, a sign of better risk appetite. |
| 1:39 | Nick Nasad - CMS: That can carry over to other pairs, like the Euro and Pound |
| 1:40 | [Comment From etis]
what about USD/JPY what will be the direction? |
| 1:40 | [Comment From okey]
what levels do we expect usd/jpy |
| 1:40 | FXstreet.com: Todayfs sponsor is CMS Forex. |
| 1:41 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The reaction here has been much more volatile than in the EUR/USD, but right now we are looking at a break of the recent downtrend in this pair from Augst 24th thorugh yesterday. |
| 1:42 | Nick Nasad - CMS: There is horizontal resistance near 93.40, which we havn't reached yet. A break there will give the greenback a chance to test its next resistance near the 95 level. |
| 1:43 | Nick Nasad - CMS: In the daily picture we are in the midst of a bigger long term downtrend that started in April, and we found support currently, just below 92, from mid-July.. That could give this a chance to rally within this longer-term downmove. |
| 1:45 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Ok, we are starting to see some direction now in the EUR/USD, and its downmove.,We, set a new intra-day low. |
| 1:46 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The past several sessions have conformed to a triangle pattern, and we are currently about to test the upward sloping line of support (connecting our lows from earlier this week) |
| 1:48 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Yen pairs are moving away from the Yen after some volatile trading in the aftermath of the release. A weaker Yen indicates higher risk sentiment. |
| 1:49 | Nick Nasad - CMS: though the action in the EUR/USD is not conformting to that. The better overall figure was probably priced in, while the higher jump in the unemployment rate may have caught some traders off guard. The chance of a downmove on the downside, considering the positioning going into the trade may have had more room. |
| 1:50 | [Comment From Bhat]
I think traders are trying to anticipate an early US recovery than Eurozone and that is why Euro is moving down |
| 1:52 | Nick Nasad - CMS: That could be the case, and the data from the US has been encouraging, at least when it comes to manufacturing. We also saw yesterday, that the ECB still sees a recovery that is fragile and will be uneven with no hints at raising interest rates |
| 1:52 | Nick Nasad - CMS: that could have disappointed market participants. |
| 1:53 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The EUR/USD is moving below the trendline that had been acting as support., and we now have a move towaeds 1.42 and possible a retest of the week's low below that. |
| 1:56 | [Comment From Steve]
Any thoughts on USD/CAD after their employment report? |
| 1:58 | Nick Nasad - CMS: During August, the USD/CAD pivoted from a strong downmove to counter-rally, and then establish a bit of a sideways range. between 1.11 and 1.07. We failed to move above that 1.11 area in this week's trading, and have broken the upward sloping support levels using the recent lows within the most recent upswing. |
| 2:01 | Nick Nasad - CMS: If there is the right bit of risk appetite, the pair may move to retest its low,. We had a positive Canadian employment release which should help Loonie strength. Right now, with the greenback faring well following the release, we saw a pretty strong move back in favor of the greenback after the pair had tested teh area below 1.09. |
| 2:02 | [Comment From Mr. Cad]
The case is different as the last month's data has been revised downwards and the unemployment rate is at it's highest. This definitly calls for a risk aversion currencies rally. |
| 2:02 | [Comment From Chris Brown]
Reaction last month was from a fall in the unemployment rate and usdjpy reacted wildly, this month, unemployment rate seems pretty shocking in comparison with consesus but usdjpy remains pretty strong, why is this unemployment rate being ignored? |
| 2:03 | FXstreet.com: Sorry guys we jsut 5 minutes left. |
| 2:04 | Nick Nasad - CMS: These are some very good comments, as Mr. Cad says, the downward revision of last month's numbers definitely adds to risk aversion. |
| 2:04 | FXstreet.com: Todayfs sponsor is CMS Forex. |
| 2:05 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Yen pairs saw some interesting and rather volatile action right after the release, but the market direction is now pointing to weakness in Yen pair, aka, strengthening now the Yen (EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY) |
| 2:07 | Nick Nasad - CMS: With the greenback being bought overall currently, the dollar is being supported in the USD/JPY pair. |
| 2:10 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The GBP/USD is now setting new intra-day lows, as we seem to have a failure to move above teh 1.6380 area now, and we could see some retracement of the recent two session rally. A bid of profit taking prior to the long 3-day weekend. |
| 2:10 | [Comment From okey]
please which level do i take usd/chf |
| 2:11 | Nick Nasad - CMS: This pair has pretty clearly defined sideways channel right now, and its is testing its resistance at 1.07 |
| 2:12 | FXstreet.com: We are short of time today, Sorry I have to wrap up the session.
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| 2:13 | Nick Nasad - CMS: After some indecision initially, the markets have taken today's news as bearish to risk sentiment. With last month's figure revised to show more jobs lost than previously reported and the unemployment rate jumping to 9.7%, there is reason for risk aversion. |
| 2:13 | FXstreet.com: Thank you Nicky for the great market view!... and every one who has joined the session.
|
| 2:13 | FXstreet.com: We really appreciate that... Nick , could you give us a final word? |
| 2:15 | Nick Nasad - CMS: We still remain caught in our recent ranges in most of our main pairs. Following the 3-day weekend, and the end of the summer holiday season we should begin to see some of these ranges tested, as we have clearly defined breakout levels. |
| 2:16 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The pressure is building for a direction for the market. |
| 2:16 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Allright, that's it for me for today. |
| 2:17 | Nick Nasad - CMS: I appreciate all of your questions and comments |
| 2:17 | FXstreet.com: Nick, Thanks to you very much. Interesting and intense post NFP hour we lived today. Many thanks to all the traders gathered here today for your participation and good trade! |
| 2:17 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Have a great weekend everyone, goodbye |
| 2:17 | [Comment From Nitesh]
Thanks Nick ....:) |
| 2:18 | [Comment From Constant]
thanx,Nick! |
| 2:19 | FXstreet.com: Thank you again for4 joining the live coverage. I hope to see you all in the next coverage on 10 Sept! Bye for now. Have a nice weekend! Adios! |
| 2:19 | FXstreet.com: Todayfs sponsor is CMS Forex. |
| 2:20 | FXstreet.com: Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. |
| 2:20 | 
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Disclaimer: Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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