| NFP Release Live Coverage with Nick Nasad | (10/02/2009) |
| 1:18 | FXstreet.com: Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.
|
| 1:18 | FXstreet.com: Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. |
| 1:19 | FXstreet.com: Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world.
Today's U.S. NFP Live Coverage is going to start shortly. I am really happy to introduce Nick Nasad who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter.
He will be giving us a direct picture for the market status. |
| 1:20 | FXstreet.com: Nick Nasad is a currency market analyst with CMS Forex for the last 3 years. He closely monitors fundamental releases and reports their results and provides commentary to the company's clients through CMS Forex's interactive economic calendar Forex Capsule and through daily Forex market video recaps. He has also written extensive educational material on using technical analysis in trading Forex. |
| 1:20 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Hello everyone, hope you are doing well and thank you FX Street for having me on again! |
| 1:21 | Did the U.S. labor market hit the bottom?Yes, it will recover at a good rate. Yes, it will recover slowly No, It will become worse further No, but there is a sing of recover. I have no idea. |
| 1:21 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Overnight we saw a continuiation of weakness in equities following the sharp decline in US stocks in yesterday's session. There are concerns about the US employment situation, following weaker ADP, jobless claims, and weak reading in the ISM manufacturing employmnet sub-index. |
| 1:22 | Nick Nasad - CMS: That has caused some anaylsts to expect a reading in today's nonfarm payroll release that may be worse than expectations heading into the start of the week. |
| 1:22 | [Comment From Dusan]
Hello Nick, what NFP figure do you expect and what direction in EUR/USD will it result in? |
| 1:23 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The consensus heading in was for around a -180K reading, but i am cautious that we may see something closer to 200K. |
| 1:23 | [Comment From silv500]
Will there be a spike? Are prices priced in? |
| 1:23 | [Comment From Guest]
Hi Nick, i'm wondering where EUR/USD will move,it's consolidating since yesterday |
| 1:25 | Nick Nasad - CMS: In terms of the EUR/USD, we have a very important support level now at 1.45. This was the area the Euro surpassed when it broke out of a sideways trading channel in early September, and following a push to 1.4850, we've seen thsoe gains whittled down. |
| 1:26 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The main reason is the sense of risk aversion that has accompanies a weak of somewhat disappointing news. That has hurt stocks and the Euro's prospects ahead of the NFP. |
| 1:27 | Nick Nasad - CMS: A weak report will test that 1.45 area, while a positive report can give market participants more confidence about the US economy in terms of the labor market a key component needed for improved consumer confidence and spending. |
| 1:27 | [Comment From silv500]
Will there be a spike in GBPUSD? |
| 1:27 | [Comment From Jeff]
how about cable direction |
| 1:27 | [Comment From Guest]
what about gbp/usd |
| 1:29 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The Pound broke through a short term upward sloping line of support (connecting this week's lows). The most recent move down follows the pair's retracement of 50% of its recent swing from 1.6460 to 1.5770. |
| 1:30 | Nick Nasad - CMS: There is support now from the beginning of the summer, but we have been in a downtrend most of September, and I still see that as the dominant trend. |
| 1:31 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Even the BOE Governor has said that a weak POund is beneficial to the UK economy, so we are going to flirt more with the support level that we had early on in the summer |
| 1:31 | FXstreet.com: Non Farm Payrolls To -201K From -216K
Unemployment Rate 9.8% Consensus 9.8% |
| 1:31 | Nick Nasad - CMS: looking at the entire summer price action looks like a slow developing head and shoulders pattern. |
| 1:33 | Nick Nasad - CMS: so the data shows a weaker result that estimates in terms of job losses (likely to boost risk aversion), while the unemployment rate inched up to 9.8% |
| 1:33 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The picture then is that the labor market did not improve in September, but kept up its same pace of layoffs as in August. |
| 1:33 | Nick Nasad - CMS: that validates some of the fears recently that the US economy's recovery may be slower as it takes longer for the jobs situation to turn around. |
| 1:34 | Nick Nasad - CMS: so the EUR/USD has a strong candle pushing below 1.45 |
| 1:36 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Today's data and the initial reaction now, in conjunction with risk aversion in equity markets leads me to believe that the downtrend in the EUR/USD could have more to go. |
| 1:36 | FXstreet.com: Sorry Previous data is wrong, this is correct.
Non Farm Payrolls To -263K From -175K
Unemployment Rate 9.8% Consensus 9.8% |
| 1:37 | Nick Nasad - CMS: ok, wow, thats a much worse figure than expected. |
| 1:37 | Nick Nasad - CMS: so we saw a deterioration in the labor market, not just duplicating the pace of layoffs that we saw in August. |
| 1:38 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Our initial reaction so far has been greenback and Yen strength.. Looking at the AUD/USD and AUD/JPY we see the effect on carry trade |
| 1:38 | [Comment From T]
shouldnt the USD go up with more risk aversion? |
| 1:38 | [Comment From Neil]
Hi Nick, Do you see the EUR/USD as low as 1.4400 ?? |
| 1:38 | [Comment From Vaibhav]
agree.. but i believe 1.43/44 area will provide a rebound to euro |
| 1:39 | [Comment From silv500]
Nick, do you think EUr/USD could reach 1.39 if MA55/100 is broken on Dailys |
| 1:40 | FXstreet.com: Non Farm Payrolls To -263K From -175K
Unemployment Rate 9.8% Consensus 9.8% |
| 1:40 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the 1.44 level is an important target as it lies between the 61.8% and 76.4% retracement of the Euro's rally from 1.4180 to 1.4840 |
| 1:41 | Nick Nasad - CMS: it would also be a test of the old resistance level that was cracked at the end of August. |
| 1:41 | Nick Nasad - CMS: so far though, the 1.45 level has given the pair some support as the initial jump in the pair in favor of the dollar has pulled back |
| 1:42 | [Comment From cindy]
looks like $ strength across the board including against the commodities currency finally.what is your thought on $/cad?Pls andtks |
| 1:42 | [Comment From Guest]
How do you see AUD/USD? |
| 1:43 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The Aussie had a pretty strong slide since peaking above its resistance level near 0.8780, and setting a new one-year high. |
| 1:44 | Nick Nasad - CMS: We fell back down into the range we in late September, and today's report actually helped the greenback to puncture the support of the sideways channel (0.8770 to 0.8585).. |
| 1:45 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The Australian economy is in better shape than others, as it has weathered the financial storm without even technically going into recession. The RBA meets next week and is coming closer to when it will begin to raise rates. |
| 1:46 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Though there are some concerns about what will happen when fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy is unwound, the prospects for growth are good, which gives me some confidence about the Aussie in a longer term sense. |
| 1:47 | Nick Nasad - CMS: right now the wave of risk aversion may give us more sideways trading in the AUD/USD though a close today below 0.86 or a move below 0.8550 could be a catalyst for a further retraction. |
| 1:48 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The AUD/JPY has also seen a sharp drop on weak carry trade as equities were hammered in yesterday's session and that weak performance in equities is continuing today. |
| 1:50 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Its a similar story for the USD/CAD, which has given up its gains after oil rallied strongly mid-week. The Canadian economy is not in the same place as Austrlia and its exports are more dependent on the health of the US economy than say China for Australia,.., The USD/CAD has been trading mainly sideways since hitting a low at 1.06. That looks like a place of buying pressure, while there is strong resistance at 1.11. There could be some range trading to be done in between those levels. |
| 1:50 | [Comment From Neil]
Wow, 1.4 5is giving some resistance ! |
| 1:50 | [Comment From jayzee]
why is the GBP/USD recovering now, should it not fall to 1.5770 |
| 1:52 | Nick Nasad - CMS: for such a negative print, the Euro and greenback are holding pretty firm at this point. With the weak jobs reports from earlier in the week, a worse reading may have been factored in by market participants, though it doesn't stand to reason that the Euro would gain on the day. |
| 1:52 | [Comment From chepurko]
Do you believe the USD/JPY downtrend will extend on this data? |
| 1:54 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The USD/JPY has been in a downtrend since April, with a steeper part of the downtrend coming between August 7th and this week. |
| 1:55 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The past two weeks we saw the pair slide from a high at 92.40 to Monday's low at 88.20. We had a bit of a retracement from that low, with a triangle pattern setting up that was broken on the downside |
| 1:58 | Nick Nasad - CMS: With a rejection of support turned resistance at 90.34 this week, it seems that the market wants to retest the low from Monday. Japanese officials have contributed to the decline by saying they would not intervene in markets if the Yen continued to appreciate. The finance minister than backtracked on those comments, so where is the line that the Japanese government believes is the furthest they would tolerate the Yen appreciating to? |
| 1:59 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The last time this was an issue was late last year, when the Japanese government (ran by a different party) said the 87 level was key to it intervening or not.. That's our long term support now., |
| 2:00 | [Comment From eno]
the USDJPY is my preferred pair for trading the NFP. The EURUSD typically has the initial spike, then reverses after about 30 mins. I've noticed this pattern for some tiem now. |
| 2:00 | [Comment From Pbp]
Is it that there may be a significant reaction to the negative NFP report in the EUR in say an hour or so? In that it may fall further given some time? |
| 2:00 | [Comment From ricky]
what will be the support lever for eur/dollar now |
| 2:02 | Nick Nasad - CMS: How stocks perform in the US will be a driver of risk sentiment which affects the EUR/USD pair so there is definetly more action to come before we quiet down say 12 PM ET. Short term support as we saw has come from the 1.45 area, though we did dip below that for a brief moment. To those believing that riska version will continue next week (say from poor earnings), we could see a test of 1.44, which was an old resistance level, and a 61.8% retracemetn of the rally in the Euro during September. |
| 2:03 | FXstreet.com: Sorry , we have just 15 minutes left. If you have any questions about the FX market, do not hasitate to ask Nick!! |
| 2:04 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Currently we are at the 50% retracement of that rally (from 1.4180 to 1.4840). If the markets find support for the Euro here, we could see sideways ranged trading. The 61.8% retracement at 1.4460 matched up nicely with the high on August 5th, so that could be a target as well. |
| 2:06 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the strong rejection of the test of support could give the Euro strength, so on the upside look for this week's high to be a key level of resistance. |
| 2:06 | [Comment From cindy]
the battle is on.stock market should provide some direction on $ |
| 2:07 | [Comment From eno]
see what i just said? The EURUSD is reversing to the upside and the USDJPY is sliding. Typical NFP reaction by both pairs! |
| 2:09 | Nick Nasad - CMS: We have to take what the market and price action tell us. The NFP data was risk averse, but there wasn't alot of momentum for greenback gains it seems. The strong rejection of the initial down move, as pointed out by eno makes it less likely that we see strong dollar gains. What this could imply is that the weak NFP data was expected by the big market participants |
| 2:11 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the next thing to look for now from a fundamental perspective the performance of US equities. |
| 2:12 | [Comment From jose]
how about audusd? |
| 2:13 | Nick Nasad - CMS: You can look further up for my thoughts on the Aussie economy, but we have seem to come to support in the AUD/USD at the bottom of the channel we have had the past 3 weeks. |
| 2:15 | Nick Nasad - CMS: with the RBA meeting coming up early next week, traders may be slightly cautious, but expectations are for a statement that will signal rate increases are upcoming. That should support the Aussie. For now, we are seeing a pretty strong correction as a result of weak equities following a one-year high.. |
| 2:16 | Nick Nasad - CMS: look at the EUR/USD go, its attempting to test today's high. It surprising that such a weak report is sort of being shrugged off, but it does give evidence that the US labor market will be slower to recover, aka a weaker overall recovery for the economy. |
| 2:17 | [Comment From Dr. Rob]
Hi Nick. I fail to see why people are so surprised in times suc as now. Thie big wigs and the public at large are giving the economy a lot more attention than usual, so it is a foregone conclusion to factor in the news before they happen simply because the alternatives are so few and there are no surprises. |
| 2:18 | FXstreet.com: We are short of time today, Sorry I have to wrap up the session. |
| 2:20 | FXstreet.com: Thank you Nick for the great market view!... and every one who has joined the session.
I have had a great time with you.
Many thanks to all the traders gathered here today for your participation! |
| 2:20 | Nick Nasad - CMS: There is likely alot of that Dr. Rob, but there has always been that dynamic. It still importnat to watch the fundamentals for turning points, which can help you to determine when central banks will change their rates and policies. From a fundamental perspective thats one of the most important thing to keep in mind. |
| 2:20 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Allright everyone, hope you enjoyed the analysis |
| 2:20 | Nick Nasad - CMS: thank you very much for your questions and comments |
| 2:20 | FXstreet.com: Any final word for everyone, Nick? |
| 2:22 | Nick Nasad - CMS: I think today's data is going to drive the theme that the US economy's recovery will be slower than what some may have been thinking during the summer. That will mean that the Fed keeps rates at their low levels for longer, something that in the end will pressure the greenback. |
| 2:23 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The response in terms of risk aversion today was not what I wouldv'e thought considering the weaker figure, but there were some signs that we were going to get a poor headline number, so it looks like it may have been priced in |
| 2:24 | Nick Nasad - CMS: And I'll leave you guys with that, again thank you very much and to everyone have a great weekend! |
| 2:24 | FXstreet.com: Thank you again Nick. It's been a great tme with you. |
| 2:25 | [Comment From Dr. Rob]
Thank you |
| 2:25 | [Comment From fivers]
ok, nick.. good luck! thanks for ur time |
| 2:25 | [Comment From jose]
thank you nick |
| 2:26 | [Comment From Frank]
Thank you, Nick. Excellent points and analysis! |
| 2:26 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Thank you for the kind words, Goodbye for now~ |
| 2:26 | FXstreet.com: Thank you again for joining the live coverage. I hope to see you all in the next coverage! Bye for now. Have a beautiful day! Adios! |
| 2:27 | FXstreet.com: Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.
|
| 2:27 | FXstreet.com: Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. |
| 2:27 | 
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Disclaimer: Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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