BoC Interest Rate Decision Live coverage

BoC Interest Rates Decision

(04/20/2010)

  

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1:47	FXstreet.com:  Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations. Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:47 FXstreet.com

1:47

FXstreet.com:  Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:47 FXstreet.com

1:47

FXstreet.com:  Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. The BoC Interest Rate Decision Live Coverage is going to start shortly. I am pleased to introduce Valeria Bednarik who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. She will be giving us a direct picture for the market status. Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:47 FXstreet.com

1:47

FXstreet.com:  Valeria Bednarik has been an active Forex trader for the last 5 years, specializing in the International Foreign Exchange Market. She also graduates in the Universidad Catolica del Salvador, in Argentina, as a Public Account, specializing in financials and cost managements. Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:47 FXstreet.com

1:48	FXstreet.com:  She currently works as chief analyst for Fxstreet.com, and trough her own company, manages an important clients portfolio for Fxsolutions, also training new traders around the word. Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:48 FXstreet.com

1:49	FXstreet.com:  Hi Valeria ! welcome back to the live coverage. Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:49 FXstreet.com

1:49	FXstreet.com:  Hi every one how are you doing? Here we have BoC interest rate history. Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:49 FXstreet.com

1:49	Valeria Bednarik:  Hi everyone and welcome to the live coverage! Tks for being here, and tks Fxstreet.com Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:49 Valeria Bednarik

1:50	Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:50

1:50	[Comment From leoleo: ]  hi, whats the % chance for a rate increase this round? Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:50 leo

1:51

Valeria Bednarik:  Hi Leo, despite market is not really forecasting a rate change, there is a chance of a 0.25% increase, following past months hawkish tone coming from the BOC. The fact is that I'm not so convinced any economy will dare to move before US, but we know Australia is doing it, so market has been lately pricing in a rate hike, sending Canadian dollar even under parity Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:51 Valeria Bednarik

1:51	[Comment From WaqasWaqas: ]  Did you see Increase in rates today after a long long time ??? Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:51 Waqas

1:51	[Comment From leoleo: ]  Hi, whats the chance for a rate increase this round? and to what extend the hawkish remarks will be? Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:51 leo

1:52	Valeria Bednarik:  Yes, i do believe there is a chance, but I don't know how hawkish speech could be Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:52 Valeria Bednarik

1:52	[Comment From GuestGuest: ]  how will this effect Eur/Usd? Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:52 Guest

1:53	Valeria Bednarik:  I do believe that if the desicion affects really cad, the reflection will be more clear in GBP than in EURO, Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:53 Valeria Bednarik

1:53	Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:53

1:54	Valeria Bednarik:  Euro, tested 1.3500 early today, mounted on better than expected ZEW reading, but as you can see, the pair was unable to hold the area, and is approaching to 1.3460 zone. Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:54 Valeria Bednarik

1:55	Valeria Bednarik:  I do see that euro remains weak no matter what happens with the dollar or the rest of the currencies. If risk appetite returns full shape to markets, euro rallies likley to remain subdue compared to other majors Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:55 Valeria Bednarik

1:55	[Comment From GuestGuest: ]  what u think about euro today if boc keep remain rate Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:55 Guest

1:55

Valeria Bednarik:  What I'm seing right now, is that pair is losing momentum after failing to hold above 1.3500; we need to overcome today's high to regain some intraday bullish strength, while under 1.3450/60 area, I dont discard a fall to the 1.3410/20 lows printed yesterday. Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:55 Valeria Bednarik

1:56	[Comment From GuestGuest: ]  how about USDJPY? Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:56 Guest

1:56	Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:56

1:57

Valeria Bednarik:  Well, pair erased most of past friday's loses, and is aprroaching to 93.10 area, 100% retracement. Above it, rally could extend to 93.40 and later 93.75 zone, but in general, i see the pair bullish, as all yen crosses. Anyway, i dont expect this pair to be affected by Cad rates decision, unless shocking change Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:57 Valeria Bednarik

1:58	[Comment From rajraj: ]  what effect on USD Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:58 raj

1:59	[Comment From machariamacharia: ]  hi val...your live chart today is confusing???am not get where the ansers are pls do something Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:59 macharia

1:59

Valeria Bednarik:  well, of course will depend on the decision, but as comment above, will likely affect more CAD and GBP then, than the rest of the crosses. Anyway! Euro is losing momentum quickly, already under support as market start positon adjustments before the data Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:59 Valeria Bednarik

1:59	[Comment From leoleo: ]  do you reckon CAD could reach parity after the rate announcement considering the risk aversion we see last week? Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:59 leo

2:00	Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:00

2:01	Valeria Bednarik:  USD/CAD has been in a clear and strong bearish trend since several weeks for now. I still consider last bullish rally as corrective, and pair is already under that 38.2% short term view Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:01 Valeria Bednarik

2:01	Valeria Bednarik:  RATES UNCHAGED! Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:01 Valeria Bednarik

2:01	Valeria Bednarik:  Cad accelerate to the downside, and approachs to parity Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:01 Valeria Bednarik

2:02	Valeria Bednarik:  dollar is losing ground against others rivals, but as you can see, reaction is quite lmited Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:02 Valeria Bednarik

2:02	[Comment From SebSeb: ]  Good Day Valeria, what would you expect for GBP/CAD today? Thanks Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:02 Seb

2:03	Valeria Bednarik:  we need to give market 15 minutes to settle down and diggest the news, but in general cad crosses had a bearish perspective at this point. Let me take a look at the statment, likley hawkish as expected. Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:03 Valeria Bednarik

2:03	[Comment From kspreddykspreddy: ]  can we go for long in gold at current levels......thanks Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:03 kspreddy

2:04	Valeria Bednarik:  Sorry my friend, I cant' suggest trades here, but what I see is that gold has a support around 1136/38 level, and is technically bullish. Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:04 Valeria Bednarik

2:04	[Comment From GuestGuest: ]  Canada is a oil producer... How about oil price? Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:04 Guest

2:04	Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:04

2:05

Valeria Bednarik:  Good question! as you can see, in the chart, oil has set a base in the $ 80 per barrel zone, that has been a roof for most of the 2009. Prices are unable to fall, and we are currently testing the 38.2% retracement of past daily fall around 83.80 Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:05 Valeria Bednarik

2:06	Valeria Bednarik:  OK! BOC says it 's appropriate to begin removeing monetary stimulus Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:06 Valeria Bednarik

2:07	Valeria Bednarik:  That's hawkish stance, Anyway! and back to oil, I do believe we have a bullish perspective there, heading to 85 where the 61.8% retracement is. above this last, black gold could extend rally Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:07 Valeria Bednarik

2:07	[Comment From backnbackbacknback: ]  can we expect 0.9850 in usd cad today.............thanks Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:07 backnback

2:08	Valeria Bednarik:  Seems a bit too much my friend; however, I do believe that is quite a strong support level, and despite we could beat parity again, not sure if pair could beat that zone. Major long term support area. Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:08 Valeria Bednarik

2:08	[Comment From hardstone1hardstone1: ]  i want to know about g/j Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:08 hardstone1

2:09

Valeria Bednarik:  As comment above, all yen crosses had a bullish perspective, with Japan looking to devaluate their currency. PAir is actually above 143.00, with immediate resistances at 143.40 and 143.90 area. Supports for next hours, are at 142.60 and 142.10 Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:09 Valeria Bednarik

2:09	[Comment From GuestGuest: ]  what is support for euro n resistance Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:09 Guest

2:10	Valeria Bednarik:  Euro is back around 1.3485; resistance lies at 1.3520 , 1.3555 and 1.3580/90 zone, while supports now are at 1.3440 and 1.3410 yesterday's low. Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:10 Valeria Bednarik

2:10	[Comment From machariamacharia: ]  what about gbp/usd? Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:10 macharia

2:11	Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:11

2:12

Valeria Bednarik:  Pair holds a bullish tone since early Europe CPI readings; holding around 1.5380 area quite a support/ressitance level, I see pair correcting slightly early gains; correction could reach 1.5330 support area, without harming the trend, thus seems unlikely after the data, and with cad apporaching to parity. An acceleration above 1.5390 likely leat the pair back to daily high and above to 1.5460 zone, next resistance to consider. Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:12 Valeria Bednarik

2:13	[Comment From GuestGuest: ]  EURJPY? Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:13 Guest

2:13	Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:13

2:15	Valeria Bednarik:  Same scenario as other yen crosses: pair has a bullish tone amid Japan devaluation stance: quoting now around 125.40, pair needs to overcome 125.60 zone to extend the rally to 126.10; i see supports at 125.00, and 124.40 for today Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:15 Valeria Bednarik

2:15	[Comment From leoleo: ]  hi valeria, when do you think canada has a highest chance of increasing their rate considering their strong economy? Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:15 leo

2:16	Valeria Bednarik:  Well, with the hawkish stance since today, seems pretty soon, thus as comment at the beginning, not sure if they will "dare" to move before US. that's of course, a personal apreciation. Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:16 Valeria Bednarik

2:16	Valeria Bednarik:  Maybe June, July, I'm looking for rate hikes in the second half of this year really. Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:16 Valeria Bednarik

2:16	[Comment From WimWim: ]  Any recommendations on the USD/CAD? Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:16 Wim

2:17	Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:17

2:17

Valeria Bednarik:  Pair is testing parity, should consolidate around here, or give a small bulllish corrective movment before another leg down; under parity, next supports are at 0.9960, 0.9920 and 0.9850 strong zone. To the upside now, resistances lie at 1.0030 and 1.0080 Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:17 Valeria Bednarik

2:17	[Comment From ignoreignore: ]  Hi....do you anticipate a drop further down below 1.2900 eur/usd Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:17 ignore

2:19	Valeria Bednarik:  I can't see that at this point my friend; despite I do see the Euro weak, there is a hard road ahead before we reach that area. pair is back testing pre report low: take a look, if gives up likely to extend the fall Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:19 Valeria Bednarik

2:19	[Comment From machariamacharia: ]  cad gaining strongly Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:19 macharia

2:19	[Comment From WimWim: ]  why does usd/cad goes down? Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:19 Wim

2:20	Valeria Bednarik:  Because Cad is strong as Macharia says.. hawkish tone in the policiy meeting, removing stimulus announcing a probable rate hike in a couple of month... Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:20 Valeria Bednarik

2:20	[Comment From leoleo: ]  hi valeria, at what level do you think USD/CAD will bottom tonight? Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:20 leo

2:20	Valeria Bednarik:  if rally extends, no much more than 0.9920/50 area.. tha'ts my last support for today. Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:20 Valeria Bednarik

2:21	[Comment From machariamacharia: ]  what does that mean val n what effect that statement hv in forex? Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:21 macharia

2:23

Valeria Bednarik:  i guess already answer that right? general effect is that we are seing both Aussie and Cad, commodity currencies, gaining strong against dollar, and that anticipates dollar falls in general. But see? majors are not moving all together: market is weighting each currency strength, and moving wisely on that. Cad is under parity Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:23 Valeria Bednarik

2:24	Valeria Bednarik:  on its own strength; yen is above 93.00, on its own weakness Euro is unable to rise, also own weakness, whole aussie holds above 0.9300 Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:24 Valeria Bednarik

2:24	[Comment From jes_tovarjes_tovar: ]  could this affect to GBP/USD? Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:24 jes_tovar

2:25	Valeria Bednarik:  yes, with a slight effect will keep pound limited to the downside, as seems unable to rise. Correcting as comment above, 1.5330 should hold there, to have chances of further rises. Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:25 Valeria Bednarik

2:25	[Comment From troytroy: ]  Where do you see GBPUSD heading from here. Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:25 troy

2:25	[Comment From SanjaySanjay: ]  Hi Val,GBP seems to be heading towards 1,57 area if it closes above yesterday's close? Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:25 Sanjay

2:27

Valeria Bednarik:  I believe that pound will remain ranging in betwee 1.52/1.54 till elections first day of March. really, don't see the 1.57 posible before that. we really need to regain first 1.55 before talking of 1.57... and as comment above, correcting maybe to 1.5330 Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:27 Valeria Bednarik

2:27	[Comment From cornelcornel: ]  can we go long on eur/usd now? Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:27 cornel

2:27	Valeria Bednarik:  You can do whatever you want.. but let me ask you why? do you have a trading technical indication? a signal? a sistem? what is telling you to buy? Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:27 Valeria Bednarik

2:28	[Comment From sandrasandra: ]  at what level do you think the pair will bottom tonight? Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:28 sandra

2:29	Valeria Bednarik:  I believe you talk about cad.. in between 0.9920/50 seems to be it for me, and technically talking. Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:29 Valeria Bednarik

2:29	[Comment From FawadFawad: ]  hi, Val, do u c eur/usd to 1.4000 in this quarter. or u c it breaking the low of 3266 Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:29 Fawad

2:29	[Comment From SanjaySanjay: ]  Hi Val,why do you see EUR bearish as charts will turn bullish for short term if it manages a close above yesterday's or 1,35 area. Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:29 Sanjay

2:31	FXstreet.com:  Sorry we have Just 15 minutes left. If you have anything related Forex market, please do not hesitate to ask Valeria. Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:31 FXstreet.com

2:31

Valeria Bednarik:  fawad, seems we are closer to break lower, than reaching that 1.40 area, and Sanjay, well good comment see? I call short term intraday, hourly charts, 4 hours chart, and at this point both look bearish to me. Hourly show indicators breaking lowe, giving sings to the downside, while 4 hours show strongly bearish SMA and price capped under it. that's my reading Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:31 Valeria Bednarik

2:31	[Comment From GuestGuest: ]  Hi. If Canada wont raise before U.S then usdcad should appreciate? Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:31 Guest

2:33

Valeria Bednarik:  Pair won't appreciate just because 1 factor. Don't forget there are a lot of factors weigthing in each an every pair.. Non of them is rising rates. Oil is rising; BOC is hawkish...just to mention some of the gactors weithghting there now Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:33 Valeria Bednarik

2:33	[Comment From nishanisha: ]  Will cad/usd go down,,, Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:33 nisha

2:34	Valeria Bednarik:  well we break under parity, reached 0.9970 area, and pair is now testing parity again, correcting slightly to the upside; maybe 1.0020/30 area, yet in general, pair remains bearish, yes Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:34 Valeria Bednarik

2:34	[Comment From ignoreignore: ]  what happens then when USA raises rates and euro is under 1.3000? Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:34 ignore

2:35	Valeria Bednarik:  i can't imagine which level pair will be, before the rate hike, or when this will take place, so seems advancing a bit to much in the history.. See what happened the past 2 weeks! Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:35 Valeria Bednarik

2:35	Valeria Bednarik:  euro zone made an agrement to bailout Greece, and everyone was optimistic, with euro gapping to the upside 100 pips in a Sunday opening, testing 1.3600. Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:35 Valeria Bednarik

2:36	Valeria Bednarik:  Next week? US SEC sues for fraud Goldman Sachs, and pair gapped TO THE OTHER DIRECTION.. and moves under 1.3500... Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:36 Valeria Bednarik

2:37	Valeria Bednarik:  there are lots of things we, as traders, CAN'T FORECAST. We can only handle a couple of things: data, technical analysis, and over all OUR ACCOUNTS. Risk management, wise trading, either short or long one, but keep that in mind please. Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:37 Valeria Bednarik

2:37	[Comment From rajibrajib: ]  dont u see any pullback towards 1.0400 level in midium term?coz last low of .9950 is not a bad support Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:37 rajib

2:38	Valeria Bednarik:  good comment my friend. yet stll I see a huge resistance around 1.0250.. weekly lows and highs so only above that area, I will start to consider pair could lose the bearish tone.. not before. Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:38 Valeria Bednarik

2:39	Valeria Bednarik:  Sorry, I'm seing a lot of questions of trading positions. I can't suggest trades here, my friends. Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:39 Valeria Bednarik

2:39	[Comment From rajibrajib: ]  EurGbp is forming a base near .8740 and even there is a big consolidation in the weekly chart also and upside breakout is mostly possible.then how can it be possible for GBPUSD to even touch 1.55? Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:39 rajib

2:41	Valeria Bednarik:  Good appreciation, yet remember, is also Euro behaviour weighting in the pair. Anyway I donLt see Pound reaching 1.55.. what I sai dis that only IF the pair, overcomes that area, we could start talking of 1.5700 ... not before Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:41 Valeria Bednarik

2:42	[Comment From SanjaySanjay: ]  Hi Val, there seems to be ichimoku cloud building over USD/JPY at 93,60 levels which should give 100 pip downside?agree? Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:42 Sanjay

2:44

Valeria Bednarik:  I believe you are looking at the 4 hours charts here. 93.70 has been a strong resistance area, yet if you llok at daily or weekly charts, you will see price above the cloud, adn remember this ndicator is ment to be in bigger time frames.. we are only under the cloud in the 4 hours charts, and that area is aresistance level, not an entry point or an indicator signal Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:44 Valeria Bednarik

2:45	[Comment From MungoMungo: ]  CAD triple bottom on weekly, just a comment Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:45 Mungo

2:45	[Comment From rajibrajib: ]  Val, dont you think this pair (USDCAD) can again close the day above 1.0050? Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:45 rajib

2:46	Valeria Bednarik:  Tks Mungo for the appreciation! you are absolutely right. And seems unlikley Rajib.. let's see what Wall Street brings us now. but pair is bearish today. Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:46 Valeria Bednarik

2:46	FXstreet.com:  Sorry we are short of time today, I have to wrap up the session. Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:46 FXstreet.com

2:47	FXstreet.com:  Thank you Valeria for the great market view!... and every one who has joined the session today. I have had a great time with you. Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:47 FXstreet.com

2:47	FXstreet.com:  Valerica, please give us a final word Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:47 FXstreet.com

2:47	Valeria Bednarik:  Ok all! tks for being here, as usual, I really enjoy this live coverages hope you also! Tks fxstreet.com also for giving us this space. Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:47 Valeria Bednarik

2:48	Valeria Bednarik:  Remember what I told you: lot's of umpredictable things could happen..focus on what you can actually control! Have a great trading day! Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:48 Valeria Bednarik

2:48	[Comment From rajibrajib: ]  thanks Val for all your comments and help. Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:48 rajib

2:49	FXstreet.com:  Alright evey one,, Thank you for coming today! I hope to see you all in the next live coverage. Have a nice trading day! Bye for now! Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:49 FXstreet.com

2:49	FXstreet.com:  Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations. Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:49 FXstreet.com

2:49

FXstreet.com:  Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:49 FXstreet.com

2:49

 

 

Disclaimer: Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.