FXstreet.com Live Sessions Archives

Forex Mysteries Revealed

Expert: S. Wade Hansen, Founder at Profiting With Forex
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
Have you ever wondered who is really moving the forex market, why the forex market moves more at some times during the day than others or how to calculate the value of a single pip? If you've ever wondered about some of the "mysteries" that don't get talked about a lot but really aren't mysteries at all, and you want answers, this is the presentation for you

Watch Live Coverage of the US GDP

Expert: Jerry Furst, President at Investors Education Network
Moderator: Maud Gilson, Conference Manager

Summary:
The US GDP report is closely watched as it tells institutions, governments, investors, and traders about the overall health of the US Economy. The release of this number is likely to cause a temporary spike in volatility. As traders we can stand aside, or trade. But we must be aware of these scheduled economic events.

Tune In and Trade Along! This presentation will have an in-depth look at this scheduled volatility event.

7:30 AM (EST) - Before: What makes this scheduled event so important
8:00 AM (EST) - During: Watch the markets react with volatility
spiking charts in all markets!
8:30 AM (EST) - After: What Happened and What to Expect Next!

Intro to Trading Emerging Market Currencies

Date: January 11, 2006 15:00GMT 10EST

Expert: Peter Rosentreich, Author of 'Forex Revolution'

Topics:

• EM Definitions
• EM Country Considerations
• EM Country Risks
• EM Monetary Policy
• EM Forex Risk

Who is Peter Rosentreich?
Peter Rosentreich is a principle and foreign exchange trader for Rose Stevons & Company, a boutique New York alternative investment firm specializing in providing retail clients with innovative, structured products. Mr. Rosenstreich has extensive experience in the retail Forex sector. He is licensed with a series 3, 7, and 63, and is registered with the NASD. Mr. Rosenstreich holds a BA in History from Clark University and an MBA from the City University of New York, Zicklin School of Business.

Speech Material

Historically retail forex traders have stayed away from emerging market currencies in favor of trading the majors. And for good reason, barriers such as large spreads, illiquid pairs, poor information discovery, disorderly market movement and just basic lack of access to pairs proved too much for the retail trader.

But recently these barriers have begun to come down a bit, providing the opportunity for retail traders to enter one of the most exciting segments of foreign exchange trading.

Emerging Markets are still very risky. At this point I don’t encourage any forex trader to abandon their majors trading strategies and jump in to EM pairs, but what I’m am saying is there are some incredible opportunities. A good forex trader must develop the foresight to recognize these situations.

Emerging markets currencies have unique characteristics that must be addressed before developing an effective trading strategy. In this forum we will being to address how:

Click here to download powerpoint presentation

ECB vs. Interest Rates

Date: January 3, 2006 15:00GMT 10EST

Expert: Lic. Sergio Avalos, Financial Analyst of Nexum Capital Markets

Topics:

• US Interest Rates  
• How does interest rate affect currencies?
• BCE upcoming interest rates

Who is Lic. Sergio Avalos?

Lic. Sergio Avalos is a Financial Analyst of NEXUM CAPITAL MARKETS in Mexico, founded in 2005 for clients services that wish to learn how to trade FOREX and become themselves into mature and expert traders, by the hand with our company, we help all our clients to know and learn every different angle into the market and how to take advantage to the maximum power of all opportunitites the markets brings us.

Speech Material:

• US Interest Rates
• How does interest rate affect currencies
• BCE upcoming interest rates

Raising the interest rates in the European economic zone has been the big dilemma in 2005. This has evolved into a considerable issue for the ECB when its counter part, the FED, stopped getting around topic and finally got into action.

It has become a common ritual of the FED to raise i.r. (interest rates) by .25% every time that they perform this action. The interest rate increased from 4% to 4.25% (13th-consecutive rate rise) and they assure that it may be one of the last changes. An action made to slow down the economy and keep inflation down. Inflation is already becoming a problem; US economy grew at a strong 3.8% annual rate in the third quarter of 2005, while consumer prices rose at a 4.7% pace in the past 12 months. The FED assures that the target rate would not stimulate nor slow down the US economy. We’ll be watching a rate around 4.5% for the 3Q in 2006, so it is important to be prepared for it.

As a result the ECB is still pressured onto changing their policy of a low i.r. of 2% when it was cut from 2.5% in June 2003. The increased made this December was a very expected movement in the i.r. made by the ECB, enabling EZ to regain confidence in the common currency and control inflation. But these decisions won’t be as easy as it is set up at the FED. The ECB faces several political pressures as well as the support of the finance ministers to stop a possible rise on i.r. The resistance group to raise i.r. felt that the increase will damage the already low European economic growth. European economy is growing below the yearly tendency of 1.1%. On the other hand, the US economy is growing more than three times faster.

The ECB would continue reluctant in changing their tight policy on a possible rise of their i.r. at least for the moment. The 2006 would be a totally different scenario. We could expect a rate of 2.5% for the 2Q. This move would be justified as a strategy to control the inflation alert.

The EUR/USD price level for the first month can be expected between 1.2060as an important resistant mark with a first support located at 1.1970.  Much may change after one of these two pivots breaks, and a continuation of an increasing volatility could develop into the next couple of sessions/weeks ahead.

The ECB and the impact on the Euro €

Date: November 29, 2005 15:00GMT 10EST

Expert: Piet Lammens, KBC Head of research

Topics:
- ECB’s Trichet pre-announces December rate hike
- Monetary policy still accommodative
- Is this the beginning of the ECB tightening cycle?
- Where will rates end up?
- How will this influence the shape of the curve?
- And how will the spread between German and US yields evolve?

Who is Piet Lammens?
Piet Lammens Born in Louvain, Belgium on February 28 1958. Law degree, Catholic University of Louvain, Belgium Legal advisor 1982-1989.CERA: Economist Research Department 1989-97. CERA Investment Bank Analyst dealing room 1998.KBC Head of Research dealing room 1998

Speech Material:

ECB’s Trichet pre-announces December rate hike

Monetary policy still accommodative
Is this the beginning of the ECB tightening cycle?
Where will rates end up?
How will this influence the shape of the curve?
And how will the spread between German and US yields evolve?
After a speech in Frankfurt on Friday, ECB President, Jean-Claude Trichet, gave markets a very clear signal that the ECB will raise interest rates at its next policy meeting on December 1st. The tone of his comments suggests that the ECB will raise rates by 25 basis points. In Trichet’s own words, the ECB will ‘modestly augment’ the present level of rates.

Today’s remarks are probably as close as the ECB can come to pre-announcing a rate rise.Trichet added that this move will only withdraw ‘some of the accommodation which is embedded in present monetary policy and we will maintain moderation and accommodation. The policy would remain accommodative’. This suggests December’s moveis set to be the first stage in a gradual process of raising rates. In essence, this seems to be the ECB’s effort to replicate the US Federal Reserve’sassurances that it [the Fed] would act in a ‘measured way’. Trichet’s comments on Monday before EU parliament however dented this outlook, as he said ‘It would be no good working assumption to consider that we are at the start of a series of interest rate increases’.

We would not draw too much conclusions out of these remarks. We still believe that the ECB is eager to bring rates to a more neutral level. The pace is however very data-dependent. So, upward pressure on rates looks set to persist. We expect the ECB will raise rates on a quarterly basis to end up the year at around 3-3.25%.
A change in ECB policy rates would mark a dramatic change in the interest rate climate. The European Central Bank’s key policy interest rate has remained unchanged since June 2003 (when it was cut to an historic low of 2 per cent). You have to go as far back as October 2000 for the last ECB rate increase.

The current extremely low level of rates has prevailed for nearly 2½ years and was put in place in response to exceptional weakness in the global economy in the aftermath of terrorist attacks of September 11th. As a result, it could be said that ECB policy rates have been at an “emergency” setting for nearly 2½ years.

Dollar Corealation with oil-gas-cycles-equities

Date: November 8, 2005 15:00GMT 10EST

Expert: Bernardo A. Martinez Garza, Founding director of Nexum Capital Markets

Topics:
- Deep X.-rays on the Currency Master DOLLAR
- The king has fallen Greenspan, what will Bernanke do next?
- New tug of war: interest rates V's EUR-USD parity
- Will monarchy continue? Or like every big empire has its end begun?

Who is Bernardo A. Martinez Garza?
Bernardo A. Martinez Garza is the founding director of NEXUM CAPITAL MARKETS in Mexico, founded in 2005 for clients services that wish to learn how to trade FOREX and become themselves into mature and expert traders, by the hand with our company, we help all our clients to know and learn every different angle into the market and how to take advantage to the maximum power of all oportunitites the markets brings us. As a Finantial Consulting Manager in Latin America, our company started off in 1995, with the sole objective to give over 35% annual profits to all our clients, no matter how big or small they might be, basing their principals to their higher standard, mostly into FOREX Markets. As owner of a National Restaurant Franchise as well, Bernardo Martinez has a wide vision and knows where the market will be following the economic fundamentals, as well as the general consumer public, oportunity areas, and growth potential, as well as possible changes in monetary policy

Speech Material:

Have no doubt about it, the USD is and will be for our time being the worlds reserve currency, even though talks about EURO becoming the next generation in reserve currency, we might be a long way down the road by the time that happens. The USD for the time being will overcome every whispers of such things happening, and it will take a lot of talking to start making the USD tremble… the king will be king still, but what powers will this king have in a few years from now? We will see that soon enough.

Is having the USD as a currency dictator a good or a bad thing? Depending on what side of the table you are sitting right now. How to know and how to take advantage of both sides, we will figure it out in the next couple of minutes…

Have you ever though of becoming great & popular by defeating a big bully at your old home school? Ever did? As all of you probably are thinking... there might have been this ONE kid who actually tried, annoyed by all the lack of attention and all the bullying by the other big kid; however, as it probably happened, that kid should have lost easily… why? Because he, in his still young mind probably didn’t think the obvious : ‘Wait until he is old enough to start making foolish things and tell on him!’ why might anyone on his 5 senses try to overcome a powerful, bigger and heavier kid? Which probably has more advantage, fight wise and energy wise as you do?

Why, I ask myself, might the EURO try to get rid of the dollars’ superiority? Only to gain popularity? I really don’t think so, it simply isn't the way things work in our modern world, not these times, not even in the USA! It is true that EURO needs its currency above 1.2500 by years end to control inflation, and that is why we suddenly see such powerful Rallies to the north side of our graphs; however how many times has this been sustained? Not many really. Now for the Million Dollar Question (see how I still use Dollars instead of Euros?)… “Where might the bottoming of the EURO find support and start rising towards 1.3000 again?”

As Tom Hobson said just several sessions ago “we will not buy EUR/USD above 1.1800” and believe me, as well as most analyst might tell you, he is the one person ready to put his money where his mouth is. (Tom Hobson=Meryll Lynch). Has he suddenly decided to change his mind? As they also say; “Only the wise, are able to change their mind”. Why has Euro suddenly gathered strength? Might it be consumer confidence? Bernanke? Oil/Gas? Gold? I say NAHH!!!

I say : It is time for EURO to show some bit of respect for themselves and control their inflation the way they would like to… why let US sell government bonds and then earn money by letting them loose with a weaker USD? Why not take a small bit of the pie themselves? They have the power, they have waited long enough, they have actually succeeded before, at least for a little while. Why not show the World ‘they can’ but still wont? Lets see some ‘crude’ facts now, let see some numbers!

Since 1973, when as we all should know, dollar-gold convertibility ended, we have had 5 (FIVE) occasions where we noticed the oil-gold ratio reaching a bottom bottom… miraculously at the same time we saw negative 10-2 yield spreads, elevation of rates by FED, weaker GDP and as you might all be thinking now… A FALLING DOLLAR!!!

Well people…1979, 1981, 1985, 1990, 2000 we all know them… what now? 2005?

Oil-Gold ratio is near a 7.0 (and it doesn’t seem to slow down)

- Inflation rates in ECB over their limit

- Inflation rates in BoE over their limit

- FED just keeping their head above water

This makes investors like and buy even more and more metals and oil…being afraid of inflationary risks and what might happen to their dollars, pounds, and euros.

Shall I go on now telling you that FED will keep hiking until at least 4.25%? or that we see every day a more negative 10-2 yield spreads? GDP anyone? Didn’t think so

Another thing that might actually be interesting to see is that in 1979 and 1980, during oil crisis, we say the USD rise above 240 and 300 against DEM. At 2001 we saw similar things happen after recession. My personal opinion:

Believe in USD strength, just don’t be foolish enough to think it will last forever; track EUR/USD well, and if we see a close above 1.2300, hang in for a big ride to the upper side. As we were telling our clients before, hold on for the big wave, don’t let go your long EURO’s yet, wait for the ride… lets all enjoy this ride while it lasts…

Dollar Rally Part II Open Forum

Date: October 20, 2005 14:00GMT 10EST

Expert: Jes Black, Director of Research at FxMoneyTrends.com

Topics:
- Interest Rates to Dominate Dollar Trend
- Gold Rally Near an End
- FX Outlook for 2006

Who is Jes Black?
Jes Black is the hedge fund manager at Black Flag Capital Partners and director of research at FxMoneyTrends.com, a forecasting service dedicated to professional traders. He is also the author of 'Currency Forecasting and Trading Methods', which will hit bookstores this summer.

Speech Material:

- Interest Rates to Dominate Dollar Trend

- Gold Rally Near an End

- FX Outlook for 2006

Click all images to enlarge:

1.

2.

3.

3b.

4.

5.