FXstreet.com Live Sessions Archives: Live Coverage

05/10/2010

BoE Live Coverage

BoE Interest Rate Decision with Valeria Bednarik

(05/10/2010)

11:45

FXstreet.com:

Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's BoE Interest Rates Decisions Live Coverage will start shortly. I am pleased to introduce Valeria Bednarik who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. She will be giving us a direct picture fo the market status.

Monday May 10, 2010 11:45 FXstreet.com

11:45

FXstreet.com:

Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Monday May 10, 2010 11:45 FXstreet.com

11:45

FXstreet.com:

Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or futures you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and futures trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Monday May 10, 2010 11:45 FXstreet.com

11:46

FXstreet.com:

Valeria Bednarik has been an active Forex trader for the last 5 years, specializing in the International Foreign Exchange Market. She also graduates in the Universidad Catolica del Salvador, in Argentina, as a Public Account, specializing in financials and cost managements.

Monday May 10, 2010 11:46 FXstreet.com

11:46

FXstreet.com:

She currently works as chief analyst for Fxstreet.com, and trough her own company, manages an important clients portfolio for Fxsolutions, also training new traders around the word.

Monday May 10, 2010 11:46 FXstreet.com

11:47

FXstreet.com:

Hello Valeria! Welcome back to the live coverage.

Monday May 10, 2010 11:47 FXstreet.com

11:47

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi Everyone, and welcome to this Live Coverage!

Monday May 10, 2010 11:47 Valeria Bednarik

11:49

Valeria Bednarik:

Witl all what has been going on in markets these days, seems BOE decision it's being a bit dulled at the time. Really I would expect this to be a non event, unless some surprises coming from BOE

Monday May 10, 2010 11:49 Valeria Bednarik

11:49

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Hi Valeria... Bullish for the GBP ?

Monday May 10, 2010 11:49 Guest

11:49

Monday May 10, 2010 11:49

11:50

Valeria Bednarik:

Well take a look at the daily chart: as we talk yesterday, pair has started the week with strong signs of reversal havin bottomed at that 1.4470 area.

Monday May 10, 2010 11:50 Valeria Bednarik

11:50

Monday May 10, 2010 11:50

11:51

Valeria Bednarik:

Short term, pair is still bullish, as you can see in this 4 hours charts; however the long rally needs some downside corrections before a new strong leg to the upside. I see a strong resistance level at 1.5020 as first barrier; if above 1.5060, comes next ahead of 1.5100.

Monday May 10, 2010 11:51 Valeria Bednarik

11:52

Valeria Bednarik:

supports for next hours come at 1.4960, and 1.4920 area.

Monday May 10, 2010 11:52 Valeria Bednarik

11:52

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

EURUSD keeps going down?

Monday May 10, 2010 11:52 Guest

11:52

Monday May 10, 2010 11:52

11:53

Valeria Bednarik:

Euro has reached the 1.3100 level I have been following since long: pullback to the ascendant trend line broken past week is complete. This is a weekly chart, tren dile comes from Feb 2002 lows.

Monday May 10, 2010 11:53 Valeria Bednarik

11:54

Valeria Bednarik:

I believe market euphoria has been excesive, and despite the facilities announced, Europe is not going ot recover in a day or two: we need to see unemployment decreasing, production increasing, to call for a real recovery.. this is just a bailout for a crisis.

Monday May 10, 2010 11:54 Valeria Bednarik

11:55

Valeria Bednarik:

Pair has supports at 1.2970 and 1.2920 area, ahead of 1.2880 zone. To the upside 1.3015, 1.3050 and 1.3100 are resistances for next hours.

Monday May 10, 2010 11:55 Valeria Bednarik

11:55

Monday May 10, 2010 11:55

11:56

Valeria Bednarik:

Pair is back unde rthe 61.8% retracement of past daily fall, so yes, chances are to the downsid as long as under 1.3015.

Monday May 10, 2010 11:56 Valeria Bednarik

11:56

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

what do you expect for BoE decision? not much impact on the markets?

Monday May 10, 2010 11:56 Guest

11:57

Valeria Bednarik:

yes, unless they made a surprise announcememnt regarding cutting or raising rates, or extending QE, seems we are not going to have any strong reaction from this particular news.

Monday May 10, 2010 11:57 Valeria Bednarik

11:57

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

USDCHF keeps going up?

Monday May 10, 2010 11:57 Guest

11:58

Monday May 10, 2010 11:58

11:59

Valeria Bednarik:

Pair bearish momentum is not completely over yet. 4 hours indicators remain bearish, thus 1 hour ones are giving first signs of exhaustion to the downside. Pair needs to regain and consolidate above 1.1000, to turn intraday bullish, with next resistances at 1.1040 and 1.1090 area. 1.0940 is first support: under it, pair could test 1.0900 ahead of stronger 1.0850 zone

Monday May 10, 2010 11:59 Valeria Bednarik

11:59

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

will there still be a bearish outlook on the gbp/usd if the reate remains unchanged?

Monday May 10, 2010 11:59 Guest

12:00

Valeria Bednarik:

I don't see pound bearish at this point, but on contrary, bullish; downside movements are seen as corrective, as comment above. downside could extend to 1.4900/20 I don't see much more today for that pair.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:00 Valeria Bednarik

12:00

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

which party will get power in uk

Monday May 10, 2010 12:00 Guest

12:00

FXstreet.com:

BoE has decided to hold the bench mark rates unchanged at 0.50%

Monday May 10, 2010 12:00 FXstreet.com

12:01

Valeria Bednarik:

After elections, no party was able to made the 9 points difference necesary to have the majority.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:01 Valeria Bednarik

12:01

Valeria Bednarik:

Cameron win elections, thus they are talking about coalitions to made things together in behalf of the UK.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:01 Valeria Bednarik

12:02

Valeria Bednarik:

ok NO CHANGES in rates, no changes in QE as far as I can see, pair has barely react to news.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:02 Valeria Bednarik

12:02

[Comment From rezrez: ]

hello valeria regarding what you said last night about eurjpy which was right,what is your analysis on eurjpy now?thanks

Monday May 10, 2010 12:02 rez

12:05

Valeria Bednarik:

pair has regained the 120 area strongly, and completely erased all past week loses; now quoting around 121.15, pair remains slightly bullish, thus we could see some downside corrections after such huge rally. key support lies at 120.60 area, and under it 120.00. Pair needs to regain 121.70 to accelerate again with 122.30 and 123.00 as next resistances levels.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:05 Valeria Bednarik

12:06

Monday May 10, 2010 12:06

12:07

Valeria Bednarik:

USD/JPY has also erased past Thursday loses, and is back above 93.00, having accelerate on stocks strong recovery. We have an immediate resistance area there at past April strong resistance area of 93.75, followed by 94.10 and 94.40 for today, with a bullish perspective ahead.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:07 Valeria Bednarik

12:07

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Any comments on USDJPY?

Monday May 10, 2010 12:07 Guest

12:07

Valeria Bednarik:

Supports, are located at 93.10, 92.80 and 92.50 area.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:07 Valeria Bednarik

12:07

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Hello Valeria, Will u coment on gold.Does it move to 1226?Thanks

Monday May 10, 2010 12:07 Guest

12:10

Valeria Bednarik:

Gold remains bullish, no question about that, holding above 1182 strong support level. Resistances for gold come at 1196, 1200 and 1212, and eventualy yes, the historical high. Supports are now at 1180, 1182 and 1176

Monday May 10, 2010 12:10 Valeria Bednarik

12:10

[Comment From aijazaijaz: ]

do you see euro usd trading below 1.20 in the later part of this year

Monday May 10, 2010 12:10 aijaz

12:12

Valeria Bednarik:

No i don't. Long term talking, current movement to 1.31 could be a pullback as mentioned at the beginning of this live coverage, yet now we need to break the 1.2500 to confirm the long term bearish trend.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:12 Valeria Bednarik

12:12

[Comment From lienlien: ]

hi, where is the next supporting line for cad/usd

Monday May 10, 2010 12:12 lien

12:12

Monday May 10, 2010 12:12

12:13

Valeria Bednarik:

Cad is heading to the 1.0200 level, still bearish despite slightly exhausted according to this 4 hours chart indocators. If that are agives up, next in line are 1.0165 and 1.0130 area. Resistances are at 1.0250 and 1.0290

Monday May 10, 2010 12:13 Valeria Bednarik

12:13

[Comment From torysenatorysena: ]

Valeria I believe pound will recover to the 1.62 levels within a month do you agree?

Monday May 10, 2010 12:13 torysena

12:15

Valeria Bednarik:

I don't see such value in Pound yet, thus as comment above, 1.4475 could be consider as a strong bottom in the daily chart. I believe we have too much turmoin in this market these weeks, to dare a long term target either way. Pair now needs first to overcome 1.5330 strong mid term resistance area, to talk about a probable rally to 1.5700, that seems quite fair away right now.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:15 Valeria Bednarik

12:15

[Comment From yuvrajyuvraj: ]

what about s&p

Monday May 10, 2010 12:15 yuvraj

12:17

Valeria Bednarik:

As comment above, US futures are strongly up, almost at past Wednesday closing levels, erasing all the slump. I follow charts to measure market sentiment but sorry, I don't trade indexes..

Monday May 10, 2010 12:17 Valeria Bednarik

12:17

[Comment From lenalena: ]

USDCAD - will it try to reach parity again?

Monday May 10, 2010 12:17 lena

12:18

Valeria Bednarik:

I think that if we lose that 1.0165 support, and oil manages to regain the $ 80/barrel, there is a good chance yes.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:18 Valeria Bednarik

12:18

[Comment From rezrez: ]

stocks always follow bond market does always usd follow them too ?thanks

Monday May 10, 2010 12:18 rez

12:19

Valeria Bednarik:

Well that's a good question, and the answer is NO despite we are seing high correlations since early 2009 in stocks and dollar, nothing is an "always" in forex market. Remember that.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:19 Valeria Bednarik

12:19

[Comment From IyasIyas: ]

What about euro?

Monday May 10, 2010 12:19 Iyas

12:20

Valeria Bednarik:

As comment above, pair has completed a pullback to 1.3100 broken trend line. now around 1.3000, it has first resistance area at 1.3115, 61.8% retracement of past daily fall; if we remain under it, chances are to the downside with 1.2970 and 1.2920 as immediate supports.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:20 Valeria Bednarik

12:20

[Comment From ceasarceasar: ]

Hi Val, ready the outlook for Eur/Usd and your input...looking into the extreme mkt scenario last week..should one take position at current lvls..1.3000 and if so what direction ?

Monday May 10, 2010 12:20 ceasar

12:22

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi Ceasar, as comment above, intraday pair has a bullish tone, despite longer term bearish show the 1.3100 was a pullback/ correction to the broken line. At this point, I will be waiting for a break under 1.2970 or an acceleration above 1.3020/30 to take a short term position; long term will be more clear at the end of the day, more likley tomorrow, as Monday's lately had been quite choppy.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:22 Valeria Bednarik

12:23

[Comment From PaulPaul: ]

it it worth daytrading the GBP or is it a gamble given the UK election issues

Monday May 10, 2010 12:23 Paul

12:24

Valeria Bednarik:

woes are always here, with some day's more riskier than others. I do believe that with the rigth MM we can trade any pair intraday talking.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:24 Valeria Bednarik

12:24

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

how abt kiwi, what are the technical level for today

Monday May 10, 2010 12:24 Guest

12:27

Valeria Bednarik:

Losing steam, pair has retreated form 0.7270 strong resistance level, right now. next resistance above that come at 0.7310 while 0.7240 seems to be first strong support: under it next come at 0.7200 area.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:27 Valeria Bednarik

12:27

[Comment From deandean: ]

how about EU long term? is it still bearish?

Monday May 10, 2010 12:27 dean

12:29

Valeria Bednarik:

As I comment above, i see the movement to 1.3100 as a corrective pullback; for me general trend remains bearish yes, as long as under that zone.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:29 Valeria Bednarik

12:30

Valeria Bednarik:

we need now to break the 1.2970 support to see more intraday falls.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:30 Valeria Bednarik

12:30

Valeria Bednarik:

targeting the 1.2920 area first. As comment above, if we regain the 1.3115 area, then pair could extend the upside, to the 1.3140/60 level

Monday May 10, 2010 12:30 Valeria Bednarik

12:31

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Re.kiwi...with rate decision coming ...do you see it break the ascending channel anytime soon

Monday May 10, 2010 12:31 Guest

12:32

Monday May 10, 2010 12:32

12:32

Valeria Bednarik:

PAir has bene strugling yes, with the top of an ascendant channel for long, clear in the weekly chart.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:32 Valeria Bednarik

12:33

Valeria Bednarik:

sorry! that's not the chart. but we really need to accelerate trough the highs of 0.7330 to confirm further gains; anyway, I do hold a bullish perspective in the pair, mostly due to it's high commercial relationship with australia.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:33 Valeria Bednarik

12:34

Valeria Bednarik:

As long as Australina recovery keeps going on, chances also favor Kiwi

Monday May 10, 2010 12:34 Valeria Bednarik

12:34

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Will UK election brings the pound down again to 1.44 level

Monday May 10, 2010 12:34 Guest

12:35

Valeria Bednarik:

I don't see that level anytime soon my friend; as comment above, daily chart show an interesting reversal candle marking that 1.4475 level as a midterm bottom for the pair.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:35 Valeria Bednarik

12:36

Valeria Bednarik:

We are now struggling with the 1.5020 zone, heading to 1.5060 probably if pair manages to stay around current 1.5000 zone.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:36 Valeria Bednarik

12:37

Valeria Bednarik:

as comment above, seems the rate decision has been a non event for pound.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:37 Valeria Bednarik

12:38

Valeria Bednarik:

Market is moving mostly on general optimism that will lilley extend after Wall Street opening.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:38 Valeria Bednarik

12:38

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

What about EUR/JPY?

Monday May 10, 2010 12:38 Guest

12:39

FXstreet.com:

We have just 10 mnutes left. If you have any questions related to the Forex market, please do not hesitate to ask Valeria.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:39 FXstreet.com

12:39

Valeria Bednarik:

As comment above, pair has regained the 120 area strongly, and completely erased all past week loses; now quoting around 121.15, pair remains slightly bullish, thus we could see some downside corrections after such huge rally. key support lies at 120.60 area, and under it 120.00. Pair needs to regain 121.70 to accelerate again with 122.30 and 123.00 as next resistances

Monday May 10, 2010 12:39 Valeria Bednarik

12:40

Valeria Bednarik:

in general, I hold a bullish perpsective for all JPY crosses, mostly due to Japan economic policy needs, the deflation in the country that lead to lawmakers ask for a devaluation of the currency.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:40 Valeria Bednarik

12:41

Valeria Bednarik:

Pair has also already erased the 1000 pips slump, and I would expect some short lived corrections before a new leg up

Monday May 10, 2010 12:41 Valeria Bednarik

12:41

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

thanks Val for yr view re. kiwi

Monday May 10, 2010 12:41 Guest

12:41

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

what should I expect at eur/usd?

Monday May 10, 2010 12:41 Guest

12:42

Valeria Bednarik:

I'm expecting furhter intraday falls from current level, probably approaching to 1.2920 area. as comment above, 1.3100 seems to be a strong midterm resistance area, and pair won't be able to easily overcome it.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:42 Valeria Bednarik

12:42

[Comment From sunnysunny: ]

val your e-mail pls

Monday May 10, 2010 12:42 sunny

12:42

Valeria Bednarik:

valbednarik@gmail.com

Monday May 10, 2010 12:42 Valeria Bednarik

12:44

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

thank you for your answer

Monday May 10, 2010 12:44 Guest

12:45

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

AUDUSD bullish?

Monday May 10, 2010 12:45 Guest

12:46

Valeria Bednarik:

AUD is yes, back on track havving recovered the 0.9000 level, with a general bullish tone coming b from both 4 hs and daily chart. watch for an acceleration above 0.9070 to confirm a continuation to 0.9120 first and 0.9160 area later.supports now come at 0.9020 and .8980 zone.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:46 Valeria Bednarik

12:46

[Comment From rezrez: ]

if cameron comes up in the next couple of days do we see any changes in GU?

Monday May 10, 2010 12:46 rez

12:49

Valeria Bednarik:

Good question!. I do believe that with this return of tories, some fresh air will come to the UK. I do believe that the UK won't let things get out of their hands as Euro zone has just did, and they will be a bit more wise: probably form a coalition; UK reading of GDP, and inflation had been lately quite positive, favoring mostly the upside in the pair. I won't expect Cameron to interrupt the recovery UK is showing.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:49 Valeria Bednarik

12:50

FXstreet.com:

Sorry we are short of time today, I have to wrap up the session.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:50 FXstreet.com

12:50

Valeria Bednarik:

Ok guys, seems that's it for today; as we talk earlier, with no surprises coming from BOE, news had passed without affecting market and trend. Be aware of lack of volume, triggering high volatile movements these days, and as I always told you, never forget to protect your trades. Have a great trading day!

Monday May 10, 2010 12:50 Valeria Bednarik

12:50

FXstreet.com:

Thank you Valeria for the great market view!... and every one who has joined the session today. I have had a great time with you.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:50 FXstreet.com

12:51

Valeria Bednarik:

Tks you all for being here, hope to see you back soon!

Monday May 10, 2010 12:51 Valeria Bednarik

12:52

[Comment From ErnestErnest: ]

Thanks a lot for the highlight Valeria

Monday May 10, 2010 12:52 Ernest

12:52

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Thank you Valeria! You are great!!!!

Monday May 10, 2010 12:52 Guest

12:52

FXstreet.com:

Alright evey one,, Thank you for coming today! I hope to see you all in the next live coverage. Have a nice trading day!

Monday May 10, 2010 12:52 FXstreet.com

12:52

FXstreet.com:

Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Monday May 10, 2010 12:52 FXstreet.com

12:52

FXstreet.com:

Monday May 10, 2010 12:52 FXstreet.com

12:53

Posted by FXstreet Team in Fundamental Analysis, Live Coverage, Market Viewpoint & Live Commentary | Permalink | Comments (0)

05/07/2010

Non-Farm Payrolls Release Live Coverage

Non-farm Payrolls Release Live Coverage With Boris Schlossberg

(05/07/2010)

1:13

FXstreet.com:

Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Friday May 7, 2010 1:13 FXstreet.com

1:13

FXstreet.com:

Friday May 7, 2010 1:13 FXstreet.com

1:14

FXstreet.com:

Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's U.S. NFP Live Coverage is going to start shortly. I am pleased to introduce Boris Schlossberg who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. He will be giving us a direct picture for the market status.

Friday May 7, 2010 1:14 FXstreet.com

1:14

FXstreet.com:

Boris Schlossberg began his Wall Street trading career more than 20 years ago at Drexel Burhnam Lambert. There, he traded nearly every type of financial product on the market in the U.S., from equities and options to stock index futures and foreign exchange. His innate ability to analyze market information and use it to trade has helped him become an industry-recognized, "go to" trading professional.

Friday May 7, 2010 1:14 FXstreet.com

1:15

FXstreet.com:

These days, whenever the markets move, many organizations turn to Schlossberg for his take on the situation. He is a weekly contributor to CNBC's Squawk Box and a regular commentator for Bloomberg radio and television. His daily currency research is widely quoted by Reuters, Dow Jones and Agence France Presse newswires and appears in numerous newspapers worldwide. Schlossberg has written for publications like SFO magazine, Active Trader and Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities. He joined GFT in 2008.

Friday May 7, 2010 1:15 FXstreet.com

1:15

FXstreet.com:

Hi Boris , Thank you for coming to the Live coverage.

Friday May 7, 2010 1:15 FXstreet.com

1:18

Boris:

Hi guys glad to be here

Friday May 7, 2010 1:18 Boris

1:18

[Comment From MukhrizMukhriz: ]

Hello Boris

Friday May 7, 2010 1:18 Mukhriz

1:18

Boris:

Very volatile markets

Friday May 7, 2010 1:18 Boris

1:19

Boris:

I am scrambling a bit today also IO am the worst typist ever so forgive my typos

Friday May 7, 2010 1:19 Boris

1:20

Boris:

NFP are due in 10

Friday May 7, 2010 1:20 Boris

1:20

Boris:

The market is looking for 180K

Friday May 7, 2010 1:20 Boris

1:20

Boris:

we think it may be lighter

Friday May 7, 2010 1:20 Boris

1:21

Boris:

becuase service sector ISM employment actuality went down

Friday May 7, 2010 1:21 Boris

1:21

Boris:

BUT nothing may matter today

Friday May 7, 2010 1:21 Boris

1:22

Boris:

it is all about risk and political uncertainty

Friday May 7, 2010 1:22 Boris

1:24

[Comment From Abhijit KulkarniAbhijit Kulkarni: ]

by technical analysis, we are getting oversold signal for eur/usd pair, what will be the effect if non-farm payrool +ve for US?

Friday May 7, 2010 1:24 Abhijit Kulkarni

1:24

Boris:

anyway if the number is less than 100K usdjpy could go to 91.50

Friday May 7, 2010 1:24 Boris

1:25

Boris:

We are VERY oversold euro and anything positive risk could take it to 1.2850 on short covering

Friday May 7, 2010 1:25 Boris

1:25

[Comment From WimWim: ]

Hi Boris, you think both euro and gbp will heading down again?

Friday May 7, 2010 1:25 Wim

1:26

Boris:

Yes I think GBP is still vulnerable

Friday May 7, 2010 1:26 Boris

1:26

Boris:

Teh situation in UK if NOT resolved by week-end could push GBP to 1.45

Friday May 7, 2010 1:26 Boris

1:27

[Comment From mikkemikke: ]

Hi, how about gold?

Friday May 7, 2010 1:27 mikke

1:27

Boris:

I like gold

Friday May 7, 2010 1:27 Boris

1:27

Boris:

Long term I believe its a buy as soverign debt worries spread

Friday May 7, 2010 1:27 Boris

1:28

Boris:

K lets see how this prints

Friday May 7, 2010 1:28 Boris

1:28

FXstreet.com:

NPF report preview: April change in Non-farm payrolls and change in manufacturing payrolls due at 08:30ET (12:30 GMT)- Change in Non-farm Payroll: +180K expected versus +162K prior (range of estimates are from +75K to +300K).

Friday May 7, 2010 1:28 FXstreet.com

1:29

FXstreet.com:

1 minute left

Friday May 7, 2010 1:29 FXstreet.com

1:30

Boris:

better

Friday May 7, 2010 1:30 Boris

1:30

FXstreet.com:

NFPs 290K

Friday May 7, 2010 1:30 FXstreet.com

1:30

Boris:

290K

Friday May 7, 2010 1:30 Boris

1:31

Boris:

Good number

Friday May 7, 2010 1:31 Boris

1:31

FXstreet.com:

US unemployment rates 9.9%

Friday May 7, 2010 1:31 FXstreet.com

1:31

Boris:

but unemployment rate a bit negative

Friday May 7, 2010 1:31 Boris

1:31

Boris:

Still Shoudl be good for usd/jpy

Friday May 7, 2010 1:31 Boris

1:31

FXstreet.com:

NFP: + 290K , UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 9.9% vs 9.7% Forecast

Friday May 7, 2010 1:31 FXstreet.com

1:32

Boris:

all prior data revised upward

Friday May 7, 2010 1:32 Boris

1:32

Boris:

This is a nice offset to Greece and could help stabilize marktes

Friday May 7, 2010 1:32 Boris

1:33

Boris:

93.00 level is key

Friday May 7, 2010 1:33 Boris

1:33

Boris:

if they take it out we can see 93.50

Friday May 7, 2010 1:33 Boris

1:34

Boris:

these marktes are very volatile

Friday May 7, 2010 1:34 Boris

1:34

Boris:

and you need to see sustained rise in usdjpy to get confident

Friday May 7, 2010 1:34 Boris

1:34

Boris:

the first move is usually the fake move

Friday May 7, 2010 1:34 Boris

1:35

Boris:

the key question is whether stocks rally today

Friday May 7, 2010 1:35 Boris

1:35

Boris:

that will detremine teh yen trade

Friday May 7, 2010 1:35 Boris

1:35

Boris:

right now they are selling the news

Friday May 7, 2010 1:35 Boris

1:36

Boris:

which is why you never want to jump on the news right away

Friday May 7, 2010 1:36 Boris

1:36

Boris:

you want the trade to take you in that why I was saying 93.00 key

Friday May 7, 2010 1:36 Boris

1:37

Boris:

but now they are interpreting it as negative

Friday May 7, 2010 1:37 Boris

1:37

Boris:

becuase of high unemploymnet and hourly wages

Friday May 7, 2010 1:37 Boris

1:37

Boris:

still I think this is bullish risk

Friday May 7, 2010 1:37 Boris

1:37

Boris:

and if we stabilize in the morning

Friday May 7, 2010 1:37 Boris

1:38

Boris:

we could see a rally in yen

Friday May 7, 2010 1:38 Boris

1:38

Boris:

the other interesting trade is eurjpy

Friday May 7, 2010 1:38 Boris

1:39

Boris:

Germans passed the bailout deal

Friday May 7, 2010 1:39 Boris

1:39

Boris:

and both US and Canada jobs improved

Friday May 7, 2010 1:39 Boris

1:40

Boris:

so you have to keep an eye there for break

Friday May 7, 2010 1:40 Boris

1:40

Boris:

above 117.50

Friday May 7, 2010 1:40 Boris

1:41

Boris:

right now still teh european woes dominate

Friday May 7, 2010 1:41 Boris

1:41

Boris:

but as someone said we are oversold in euro

Friday May 7, 2010 1:41 Boris

1:41

Boris:

and risk

Friday May 7, 2010 1:41 Boris

1:41

Boris:

now are starting to rally

Friday May 7, 2010 1:41 Boris

1:42

Boris:

the key here is if teh shorts gets spooked

Friday May 7, 2010 1:42 Boris

1:42

Boris:

we will verticalize

Friday May 7, 2010 1:42 Boris

1:42

Boris:

eurjpy now above 11750

Friday May 7, 2010 1:42 Boris

1:43

Boris:

lets see if it runs to 118

Friday May 7, 2010 1:43 Boris

1:43

Boris:

a lot of two way action

Friday May 7, 2010 1:43 Boris

1:43

Boris:

real battle

Friday May 7, 2010 1:43 Boris

1:44

Boris:

ok while we watch eurjpy

Friday May 7, 2010 1:44 Boris

1:44

Boris:

lets take a few more questions

Friday May 7, 2010 1:44 Boris

1:44

[Comment From DarrenDarren: ]

what effect on Eur and CHF please

Friday May 7, 2010 1:44 Darren

1:45

[Comment From lukeluke: ]

normally good news from USA means EUR/USD going down, so what is going on now ?

Friday May 7, 2010 1:45 luke

1:45

Boris:

swisse is the SAFE haven play in the market

Friday May 7, 2010 1:45 Boris

1:46

Boris:

SNB will not intervene probably until we get to 1.35

Friday May 7, 2010 1:46 Boris

1:46

Boris:

so further stress in europe send it lower BUT

Friday May 7, 2010 1:46 Boris

1:46

Boris:

very oversold and any relief rally in euro will take it higher in the short term

Friday May 7, 2010 1:46 Boris

1:47

Boris:

so we could see 1.42 bounce at least

Friday May 7, 2010 1:47 Boris

1:47

Boris:

Luke: actually no

Friday May 7, 2010 1:47 Boris

1:47

Boris:

Good eco news for US is good for USDJPY but euro trades on risk

Friday May 7, 2010 1:47 Boris

1:48

Boris:

so if US data is good that means expansion

Friday May 7, 2010 1:48 Boris

1:48

Boris:

and that is generally good for euro

Friday May 7, 2010 1:48 Boris

1:48

Boris:

eurjppy now at 11797

Friday May 7, 2010 1:48 Boris

1:48

Boris:

Friday May 7, 2010 1:48 Boris

1:49

Boris:

that why you want to wait for momo

Friday May 7, 2010 1:49 Boris

1:49

Boris:

let the market prove you right

Friday May 7, 2010 1:49 Boris

1:50

[Comment From JimmyJimmy: ]

What do you foresee is the worst-case scenario for EUR and GBP...? How low can they get against USD?

Friday May 7, 2010 1:50 Jimmy

1:50

[Comment From rezrez: ]

what would be the best pair to trade today?

Friday May 7, 2010 1:50 rez

1:50

Boris:

Euro can go to 1.200 if EZ really hit problems

Friday May 7, 2010 1:50 Boris

1:50

Boris:

Cable can hit 1.35

Friday May 7, 2010 1:50 Boris

1:51

[Comment From ArianArian: ]

What is your primary source in time of news? CNBC? ...

Friday May 7, 2010 1:51 Arian

1:51

[Comment From GGGG: ]

U think GBP is worst than EUR ? or not -- and how would u trade EURGBP ?

Friday May 7, 2010 1:51 GG

1:51

Boris:

I use the FREE Dow Jones news feed from GFT Dealbook which is lightening fast

Friday May 7, 2010 1:51 Boris

1:52

Boris:

I think cable has more risk NOW is the PArliament is hung

Friday May 7, 2010 1:52 Boris

1:52

Boris:

If they come up with a government by Sunday there will be a bounce

Friday May 7, 2010 1:52 Boris

1:53

Boris:

btw still a lot of doubt in the market as you can see

Friday May 7, 2010 1:53 Boris

1:53

[Comment From ronron: ]

how abt aussie and kiwi, how low can they go

Friday May 7, 2010 1:53 ron

1:54

Boris:

All depends on China

Friday May 7, 2010 1:54 Boris

1:54

[Comment From cindycindy: ]

after yesterday wild move on cad$..what do you expect today after the good #s,pls

Friday May 7, 2010 1:54 cindy

1:54

Boris:

So far those economies are blazing

Friday May 7, 2010 1:54 Boris

1:54

Boris:

but next moths data will be key

Friday May 7, 2010 1:54 Boris

1:54

Boris:

if we see a slowdown

Friday May 7, 2010 1:54 Boris

1:55

Boris:

aud will be hurt because basically its a china play

Friday May 7, 2010 1:55 Boris

1:55

Boris:

HOWEVER is this is a one day wonder

Friday May 7, 2010 1:55 Boris

1:55

Boris:

Markets settle down

Friday May 7, 2010 1:55 Boris

1:55

Boris:

and Europe fixes teh financing issues for 6 months or so

Friday May 7, 2010 1:55 Boris

1:55

Boris:

then Aussie has a good chance to bounce

Friday May 7, 2010 1:55 Boris

1:56

Boris:

we are coming into diffcult times seasonally

Friday May 7, 2010 1:56 Boris

1:56

Boris:

market generally stall in the summer

Friday May 7, 2010 1:56 Boris

1:56

Boris:

and risk aversion still seems like a dominant theme for now

Friday May 7, 2010 1:56 Boris

1:57

Boris:

as to CAD I like it

Friday May 7, 2010 1:57 Boris

1:57

Boris:

on the crosses esp against aussie

Friday May 7, 2010 1:57 Boris

1:57

Boris:

if china slows and US picks up that really favors a short AUDCAD play

Friday May 7, 2010 1:57 Boris

1:58

[Comment From TehsinTehsin: ]

what do you think about Eur for the next week?

Friday May 7, 2010 1:58 Tehsin

1:58

[Comment From GGGG: ]

Is AUDJPY carry trade over ?

Friday May 7, 2010 1:58 GG

1:59

Boris:

I think that we could get a relief rally if Europeans pass teh bailout bill

Friday May 7, 2010 1:59 Boris

1:59

Boris:

But euro trades on CREDIT SPREADS

Friday May 7, 2010 1:59 Boris

1:59

Boris:

that all that matters until PIIG spreads compress

Friday May 7, 2010 1:59 Boris

1:59

Boris:

euro cannot rally

Friday May 7, 2010 1:59 Boris

2:00

Boris:

so nothing matters but credit markets until the calm down

Friday May 7, 2010 2:00 Boris

2:00

Boris:

AUD/JPY is VERY VOLATILE trade now and will continue to be trade carefully

Friday May 7, 2010 2:00 Boris

2:01

[Comment From ronron: ]

will dow crash again if EZ situation worsen

Friday May 7, 2010 2:01 ron

2:01

Boris:

Yes

Friday May 7, 2010 2:01 Boris

2:01

Boris:

Lower euro very bad for US companies which are not US companies at all but multinationals

Friday May 7, 2010 2:01 Boris

2:01

Boris:

that means their profits will be very badly hurt

Friday May 7, 2010 2:01 Boris

2:02

Boris:

because their costs will be in dollars and their revenues in euros

Friday May 7, 2010 2:02 Boris

2:02

Boris:

so if we see eur 1.20

Friday May 7, 2010 2:02 Boris

2:02

Boris:

we likely see dow 9500

Friday May 7, 2010 2:02 Boris

2:03

Boris:

Markets still very nervous

Friday May 7, 2010 2:03 Boris

2:03

Boris:

if 117 in eurjpy is given we could see a run to the daily lows again

Friday May 7, 2010 2:03 Boris

2:04

Boris:

BUT I really think that we are staibilizig for at least a day or two

Friday May 7, 2010 2:04 Boris

2:04

Boris:

data is on our side and all the late shorts should get punished

Friday May 7, 2010 2:04 Boris

2:05

Boris:

You should never pick bottoms in teh market and I will change my mind ina heartbeat if we see further weakness

Friday May 7, 2010 2:05 Boris

2:05

Boris:

But looking at trade right now

Friday May 7, 2010 2:05 Boris

2:05

Boris:

it fells like risk wants to rally

Friday May 7, 2010 2:05 Boris

2:06

[Comment From tehteh: ]

the lastest UK economic reports indicated the UK recovery seems on track, can cable rally to 1.5 level again before it hits 1.35?

Friday May 7, 2010 2:06 teh

2:07

Boris:

Yes if they have a government and ESPECIALLY if its Tory led cable could rally to1.50

Friday May 7, 2010 2:07 Boris

2:07

FXstreet.com:

Sorry People we have just 5 minutes left, if you have any questions, do not hesitate to ask Boris.

Friday May 7, 2010 2:07 FXstreet.com

2:07

Boris:

Market hates Labor

Friday May 7, 2010 2:07 Boris

2:08

[Comment From TehsinTehsin: ]

The market will be closed for the weekend.. Do you see a gap in forex prices before the start of trading on monday?

Friday May 7, 2010 2:08 Tehsin

2:08

[Comment From JuliedvJuliedv: ]

what level can we expect in u/yen

Friday May 7, 2010 2:08 Juliedv

2:08

Boris:

yen first

Friday May 7, 2010 2:08 Boris

2:09

Boris:

yen can rally back to 95.00 if we get stabilization

Friday May 7, 2010 2:09 Boris

2:09

Boris:

But if it breaks 90.00 that a bad sign

Friday May 7, 2010 2:09 Boris

2:09

Boris:

and we can see 85.00 as risk fears start to spread

Friday May 7, 2010 2:09 Boris

2:10

Boris:

Yes we can get a GAP on Sunday in cable

Friday May 7, 2010 2:10 Boris

2:10

Boris:

be very carefull

Friday May 7, 2010 2:10 Boris

2:10

Boris:

gaps usually retrace

Friday May 7, 2010 2:10 Boris

2:10

Boris:

so I would not chase

Friday May 7, 2010 2:10 Boris

2:10

Boris:

especially if it was 100+ point gap

Friday May 7, 2010 2:10 Boris

2:11

Boris:

Ok I must run. very busy day today keep an eye on eurjpy

Friday May 7, 2010 2:11 Boris

2:11

Boris:

its holding 117

Friday May 7, 2010 2:11 Boris

2:11

Boris:

a break above 118 is bullish risk

Friday May 7, 2010 2:11 Boris

2:11

Boris:

lets see if it holds

Friday May 7, 2010 2:11 Boris

2:11

Boris:

all the best to you guys

Friday May 7, 2010 2:11 Boris

2:11

FXstreet.com:

Sorry we are short of time today, I have to wrap up the session.

Friday May 7, 2010 2:11 FXstreet.com

2:12

FXstreet.com:

Thank you Boris for the great market view!... and every one who has joined the session today. I have had a great time with you.

Friday May 7, 2010 2:12 FXstreet.com

2:12

FXstreet.com:

Boris please give us a final word.

Friday May 7, 2010 2:12 FXstreet.com

2:14

Boris:

Hi guys I just wanted to tell you to come to the FX street webinar on Monday at 1500 GMT

Friday May 7, 2010 2:14 Boris

2:14

Boris:

I will be giving a webinar on how to trade news reactively

Friday May 7, 2010 2:14 Boris

2:14

Boris:

its is a VERY cool presentation and its FREE

Friday May 7, 2010 2:14 Boris

2:14

Boris:

please attend

Friday May 7, 2010 2:14 Boris

2:15

Boris:

any questions email me at bktrader@gmail.com

Friday May 7, 2010 2:15 Boris

2:15

Boris:

all the best to you

Friday May 7, 2010 2:15 Boris

2:15

FXstreet.com:

Thank you Boris!!! See you on Monday!

Friday May 7, 2010 2:15 FXstreet.com

2:15

Boris:

see you Monday

Friday May 7, 2010 2:15 Boris

2:16

FXstreet.com:

Alright evey one,, Thank you for coming today! I hope to see you all in the next live coverage. Have a nice trading day!
Bye for now!

Friday May 7, 2010 2:16 FXstreet.com

2:17

[Comment From lukeluke: ]

thx Boris!

Friday May 7, 2010 2:17 luke

2:17

[Comment From TehsinTehsin: ]

Thank you Boris and Fx street

Friday May 7, 2010 2:17 Tehsin

2:17

[Comment From hhhh: ]

Friday May 7, 2010 2:17 hh

2:17

[Comment From JuliedvJuliedv: ]

thank you boris

Friday May 7, 2010 2:17 Juliedv

2:17

[Comment From ronron: ]

your explanation has been educational, thank you

Friday May 7, 2010 2:17 ron

2:17

FXstreet.com:

Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Friday May 7, 2010 2:17 FXstreet.com

2:17

FXstreet.com:

Friday May 7, 2010 2:17 FXstreet.com

2:17

Posted by FXstreet Team in Fundamental Analysis, Live Coverage, Market Viewpoint & Live Commentary, Open Discussion | Permalink | Comments (0)

05/06/2010

ECB Live Coverage

ECB Live Coverage with Valeria Bednarik

(05/06/2010)

12:29

FXstreet.com:

Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:29 FXstreet.com

12:30

FXstreet.com:

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:30 FXstreet.com

12:31

FXstreet.com:

Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. The ECB Interest rate decision Live Coverage is going to start shortly. I am pleased to introduce Valeria Bednarik who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. She will be giving us a direct picture for the market status.

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:31 FXstreet.com

12:31

FXstreet.com:

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:31 FXstreet.com

12:31

FXstreet.com:

She currently works as chief analyst for Fxstreet.com, and trough her own company, manages an important clients portfolio for Fxsolutions, also training new traders around the word.

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:31 FXstreet.com

12:32

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi everyone! on the hour! some trouble with the server. We are here to see what will ECB will decide regarding monetary policy. Despite rumors of a rate cut, I expect this to be a non event if rates remain unchanged, but press conference will grab all market attention, as Trichet will be questioned strongly about euro zone sovereign debt issues.

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:32 Valeria Bednarik

12:33

[Comment From yasiryasir: ]

very good after noon to valeria

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:33 yasir

12:33

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi Yasir, and welcome.

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:33 Valeria Bednarik

12:33

[Comment From AmalAmal: ]

Good afternoon Valeria

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:33 Amal

12:33

[Comment From yasiryasir: ]

valeria what u said about euro/usd pls

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:33 yasir

12:33

FXstreet.com:

Hi everyone and Valeria! welcome to the live coverage.

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:33 FXstreet.com

12:34

Valeria Bednarik:

Euro slump seems to have no floor at this point, despite extreme oversold readings in almost any time frame

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:34 Valeria Bednarik

12:34

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:34

12:35

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:35

12:35

Valeria Bednarik:

currently quoting at 1.2760 pair continues falling ahead of rates decision. I do see some support around 1.2735 area, but under that, next one comes at 1.2660/80 area, where we have a weekly ascendant trend line.

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:35 Valeria Bednarik

12:35

[Comment From ahmadahmad: ]

y dont you cover the ECB Press Conference after an hour , it always moves market more than the rate ?

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:35 ahmad

12:36

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi ahmad, I was thinking the same, but today, rumors of a rate cut, took as here earlier. We will consider your suggestion from now on Tks!

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:36 Valeria Bednarik

12:36

[Comment From dagdag: ]

Hi Val, long time no see, hope you are well, uk election tonight will be exciting

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:36 dag

12:37

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi Dag, tks. Yes I do believe that UK parliament elecctions are dulled with current euro situation, yet anyway will be an interesting trade situation, and I will cover it also Live! from here.

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:37 Valeria Bednarik

12:37

[Comment From yasiryasir: ]

so u mean we will see some correction in euro/usd

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:37 yasir

12:39

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi Yasir, extrme readings don't mean a correction don't get me wrong. I have no signs of such yet; as comment above, pair continues reaching lower lows hour after hour. Despite market needs a correction, and we will be seeing one i do believe soon, still is not time. Resistances come at 1.2790 now, and 1.2850 strong area. At this point, I still see upside corrective movements limited, ahead of a renewed selling rally

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:39 Valeria Bednarik

12:40

Valeria Bednarik:

However, I highly recomend you today, to wait for the news, and protect strongly your trades. We are living historical days, don't doubt that.

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:40 Valeria Bednarik

12:40

[Comment From VernVern: ]

Hi Valeria, do you think that the further falls in the EURUSD will impact sterling today, given the election?

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:40 Vern

12:40

Valeria Bednarik:

In a minor way, but yes. Pound will be more limited by elections, but won't be able to resist market sentiment

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:40 Valeria Bednarik

12:41

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

MY NANE IS RAJU EUR USD TRENDS

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:41 Guest

12:41

Valeria Bednarik:

as comment above, trend is strongly bearish despite overextended. Pair is heading lowe ahead of news, and as comment above, if we lose 1.2735, I would expect further falls today, AFTER news.

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:41 Valeria Bednarik

12:41

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

sell off is $chf?

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:41 Guest

12:41

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Hi Valeria what is going on EURCHF??? sharp falls there.

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:41 Guest

12:44

Valeria Bednarik:

Well EURO is falling sharply against all rivals:EUR/AUD also reached a fresh multi years lows and keep falling. SNB is not yet acting, but if we reach 1.4100, there could be a chance there. It's all euro weakness. Regarding USD/CHF, we are seeing the logical correction pair needed after 3 days straigth winnings. Hobering around 1.1100, supports come at 1.1070 and 1.1040 ahead of 1.1000. Above 1.1130, pair could regain the upside with resistances at 1.1180 and 1.1220

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:44 Valeria Bednarik

12:44

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

I guess if we get a rate cut, then the EUR is gonna go nose diving against all majors?

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:44 Guest

12:45

Valeria Bednarik:

i expect the same, but we can't never forecast such reaction 100% accurate. What I'm seeing now is a "sell the rumor" maybe if rates remain intact, we see some " buy the fact"

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:45 Valeria Bednarik

12:45

[Comment From dandan: ]

long E/U ?

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:45 dan

12:45

Valeria Bednarik:

I Believe is not the rigth time for that.

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:45 Valeria Bednarik

12:46

Valeria Bednarik:

RATES UNCHANGED AT 1% as expected.

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:46 Valeria Bednarik

12:46

FXstreet.com:

ECB has decided to hold the bench mark rates unchanged at 1.00%

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:46 FXstreet.com

12:46

Valeria Bednarik:

euro however, keeps falling breaking 1.2735 suppport.

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:46 Valeria Bednarik

12:46

[Comment From dagdag: ]

good, i´m with you then (thank´s god tomorrow i only have half working day), your coverage starts at 21 gmt, do you think we have already results at 21gmt?

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:46 dag

12:47

Valeria Bednarik:

Yes, tonight live coverage, hopefully we will have results of elections.

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:47 Valeria Bednarik

12:47

[Comment From RyanRyan: ]

Hi, any idea on QE or any comments on Greece?

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:47 Ryan

12:48

Valeria Bednarik:

I don't expect commentos on QE, but I'm sure when is time for questions, Trichet will be attacked by journalist. let's see how he get's out of there. But he won't be able to avoid talking about Greece, Portugal, Spain, ect

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:48 Valeria Bednarik

12:48

[Comment From VarunVarun: ]

Hi Valeria, Do we see a Bull run in Gold? What could be the possible next strong Resistance?

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:48 Varun

12:48

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:48

12:49

Valeria Bednarik:

I see some not so strong one around current 1182, stronger one at 1188, followed by this week high of 1192. General bias yes is bullish, with supports at 1176, 1170 and 1163 areas

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:49 Valeria Bednarik

12:50

[Comment From DarrenDarren: ]

is the ECB decision effectgint he USD/CHF its dropped drastically int he last few hours

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:50 Darren

12:51

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi Darren is not ECB decision. majors are moving their way, and USD/CHF is correcting extreme overbought readings, while euro is unable to do so, due to sovereign debt issues

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:51 Valeria Bednarik

12:51

[Comment From VernVern: ]

I think SNB have announced they will no longer intervence to support CHF which caused the sell off today in CHF

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:51 Vern

12:51

Valeria Bednarik:

I'm not really sure about that. Will check. Tks!

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:51 Valeria Bednarik

12:51

[Comment From SanjaySanjay: ]

AUD/USD seems to be in bearish mode.Is 0.8940 good support.

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:51 Sanjay

12:52

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:52

12:53

Valeria Bednarik:

I do believe that is exactly the inflection point for the pair. If we have a weekly close under it, pair could start a midterm bearish rally, thus I expect it to hold for now. If you review daily charts, we have seen pair bouncing strongly several times from that area. Currently around 0.9040, we have supports at 0.9020, 0.8980 and 0.8940. Resistances come at 0.9070, 0.9110, and 0.9150 area

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:53 Valeria Bednarik

12:53

[Comment From EfraimEfraim: ]

I thought the NZD/USD will be cycling up as it was building its foundation on the Daily & Weekly charts.

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:53 Efraim

12:54

Valeria Bednarik:

Pair is moving inside an ascendant channel in daily and weekly charts, so still bias is bullish midterm talking. Base of the channel is around 0.7050, so that's the key midterm support for the pair now.

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:54 Valeria Bednarik

12:56

Valeria Bednarik:

short term 4 hours chart, are showing pair losing strength to the upside, testing roof of the same channel, around 0.7260/70, so we could see some downsde corretive movements to the 0.7210 areafirst, and 0.7180 later.

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:56 Valeria Bednarik

12:56

Valeria Bednarik:

resistances come at mentioned 0.7260/70 and above 0.7290

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:56 Valeria Bednarik

12:56

[Comment From dagdag: ]

UK election: can we say, if the Tories win cable up, if Labour or hung parliament cable down?

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:56 dag

12:56

Valeria Bednarik:

seems the general view yes, Dag.

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:56 Valeria Bednarik

12:56

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:56

12:58

Valeria Bednarik:

Pound is under 1.5120, that has been the base of past April range. Heading slightly higher, pair will find there a strong resistnace area; if above, next ones come at 1.5160 and 1.5200 area. If we lose 1.5050 support, 1.5020 and 1.4990 area comes into play

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:58 Valeria Bednarik

12:58

[Comment From VarunVarun: ]

I believe ECB Chief's speech will have more impact than the rate unchanged report..Agree??

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:58 Varun

12:58

Valeria Bednarik:

Yes, as usual, next time we will cover that instead of the announcement.

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:58 Valeria Bednarik

12:58

[Comment From ceasarceasar: ]

Hi Val....what is your valuable input for GOLD...?

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:58 ceasar

12:58

Valeria Bednarik:

Check above, already comment. Tks!

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:58 Valeria Bednarik

12:58

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

uk election results won't be in until tomorrow as polls close here at 10pm tonight

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:58 Guest

12:59

Valeria Bednarik:

22GMT you mean? Ok tks for the imput.

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:59 Valeria Bednarik

12:59

[Comment From DusanDusan: ]

In 2008 market had fallen down because of US mortgage securitie resulting in crisis, in 2010 makret is falling due to EU governments wasting money - we face next new crisis. What do you think, what crisis will be more painfull?

Thursday May 6, 2010 12:59 Dusan

1:01

Valeria Bednarik:

Great question. I do believe current european one will be. This situation is putting euro zone growth in jeopardy, for at least 1 year. I see 1 year of pain for eurozone... Whie despite maybe US crisis has been worse, Dollar is dollar and will always be the safe haven it has been. At least, in my life time.. in 30 years, maybe things will change, but be sure, not today, not next year.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:01 Valeria Bednarik

1:01

[Comment From ahmadahmad: ]

is it time to buy euro? if to go long euro/usd where to place stop?

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:01 ahmad

1:01

Valeria Bednarik:

I really don't believe so, and next strong support in line comes at 1.2660/80 area

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:01 Valeria Bednarik

1:01

[Comment From cindycindy: ]

Hi Val,thoughts on cad$,pls.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:01 cindy

1:03

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi Cindy, regarding canandian dollar, oil is another factor for a bullish USD/CAD. OIL has lost the $ 80 a barrel area, that has been quite a support for most of this year. Still we are very close to foresee a full break of the level,

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:03 Valeria Bednarik

1:04

Valeria Bednarik:

pair has now a strong midterm support at 1.0250, and looking bullish for me as long as above that. supprots come at 1.0290 and 1.0250 while resistances are located at 1.0360 and 1.0400. If above this last, pair should extend midterm talking and continue rising.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:04 Valeria Bednarik

1:04

[Comment From VarunVarun: ]

Thank You Valeria, looking forward for the US session for Gold..by then we will get hints of ECB Chief's report as well

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:04 Varun

1:04

[Comment From SanjaySanjay: ]

Things are setting for black friday tomorrow.Seems EUR might touch 1,2551 on weekly low.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:04 Sanjay

1:05

Valeria Bednarik:

You re welcome Varum.
And Sanjay, well, is some state you made there, but really, as we have been talking for long in here, and the daily webinar, there is no reason, technical or fundamental, for a euro rise. So trend remains bearish. That does not mean we could see intraday bullish corrective movements.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:05 Valeria Bednarik

1:06

[Comment From EfraimEfraim: ]

Meanwhile the AUD/USD is running SHORT

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:06 Efraim

1:07

Valeria Bednarik:

is barely unchanged compared to pre news levels. but still moving in between 0.9020/70 those are the immediate levels to watch. Take a look at previous 4 hours candle, long downside shadow show buyers are still there.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:07 Valeria Bednarik

1:07

[Comment From EfraimEfraim: ]

thnaks

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:07 Efraim

1:07

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

hi, do you think we can get a technical bounce towards 1.32 in euro before next leg down...all of this euro weakness is so exagerated...i mean if we compare california with grecce we get a headache....what do you think is the possible action for may?

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:07 Guest

1:09

Valeria Bednarik:

Well, at this point, corrections the most that can reach for me is 1.3100, where we have a broken ascendnat trned line coming from 2002 lows. Really, as lower we fall, exagerated or not, the lower the pair will reach with an upside correction. As comment above, 1.2850 is quite strong resistance area for me; above, maybe 1.3000, and for me 1.3100 at this point is the extreme and a very exagerated also corrective movement.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:09 Valeria Bednarik

1:09

[Comment From LeoLeo: ]

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The Swiss franc is soaring after traders said the Swiss National Bank had abandoned efforts to prevent the currency's rise.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:09 Leo

1:10

Valeria Bednarik:

ok is a traders comment, not bank comment. Tks for the imput!

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:10 Valeria Bednarik

1:10

[Comment From GurjeetGurjeet: ]

what do u expect fro EUR/USD now?

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:10 Gurjeet

1:10

[Comment From SanjaySanjay: ]

At what price you suggest to short EUR today?

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:10 Sanjay

1:11

Valeria Bednarik:

Euro has broke lower, now testing the 1.2735 area, unable to break higher, so again going lower. As comment above 1.2660/80 is my downside probable bottom for today, and sorry, I can't suggest trades here.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:11 Valeria Bednarik

1:12

[Comment From HendyHendy: ]

Valeria, where should Pound break to change its bias from bearish turn become bullish??

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:12 Hendy

1:12

Valeria Bednarik:

Short term, 1.5120. Longer term, 1.5260 area

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:12 Valeria Bednarik

1:13

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

DollarYen? 95.00 not yet?

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:13 Guest

1:13	Thursday May 6, 2010 1:13

1:14

Valeria Bednarik:

dollar yen has sucumbed to risk aversion and retreated strongly from that 95.00.
now capped by 94.00/10, we need to overcome this area, to see the pair heading towards 94.40 area first. and that 95.00 later.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:14 Valeria Bednarik

1:15

Valeria Bednarik:

pair broke an ascendant trned line, and 4 hours momentum remains bearish, while CCI is giving first signs of exhaustion. if we lose short term 93.70, pair could fall even to 92.80,with 93.20 in the midle, despite longer term I still see the pair bullish

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:15 Valeria Bednarik

1:15

[Comment From DragonDragon: ]

@Valeria: any chance eur will go north after tomorrow summit ? thx

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:15 Dragon

1:16

Valeria Bednarik:

chances are always there.. but I see small ones north euro at this point.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:16 Valeria Bednarik

1:16

[Comment From zaphyzaphy: ]

1 year pain for the EU zone? The Germans just got 5% increase in factory orders...everyone and their grandmother will be buying euro zone goods -> manufacturing up -> unemployment down...doesn't sound like much of a pain to me.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:16 zaphy

1:16

Valeria Bednarik:

euro zone is not just Germany... and that's the problem.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:16 Valeria Bednarik

1:17

Valeria Bednarik:

Germany is being forced to lend billions to greece... as is the only one that can rescue it... Italy lending? Portugal lending? is quite a situation...

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:17 Valeria Bednarik

1:17

[Comment From cindycindy: ]

hearing about euro back at parity..is this possible.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:17 cindy

1:18

Valeria Bednarik:

I can't see that far really! maybe 1.16/1.18.. but parity??? is too much for me at this point.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:18 Valeria Bednarik

1:18

[Comment From sigmafxsigmafx: ]

Hi Val, Can you comment about yen pairs... Aud/jpy..will be nice..

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:18 sigmafx

1:20

Valeria Bednarik:

Pair was halted by strong 0.8800 area, and fall extendend to 0.8400 strong low. I do believe that if we lose that last, pair has a lot room more to fall. weekly close under it will be first signal. but if you take a look at what happended there today, we have rebounded strongly back up from that 84, so seems market is not ready to push it lower. 0.8520/30 area is the one to watch for a recovery in the pair.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:20 Valeria Bednarik

1:20

[Comment From NisarNisar: ]

Hi Val, will canada test its high today

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:20 Nisar

1:21

Valeria Bednarik:

Apart form euro, pairs are in correction mode, and ahead of tomorrows payrolls, I believe we are going to see some consolidation there, not quite ready to test 1.0400 again

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:21 Valeria Bednarik

1:21

[Comment From WaqasWaqas: ]

do you think trichet comments regarding euro will boost 100 pip rally ...

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:21 Waqas

1:22

Valeria Bednarik:

Trichet comments usually trigger 30 spikes movements.. either up or down... not the best moment to take a trading decision... Euro is now at 1.2715... again no aims of rising.... I will wait till Trichet is over.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:22 Valeria Bednarik

1:23

[Comment From SchlomoSchlomo: ]

Hello Val,the Us-Dollar is not strong,the currency is in luck,cause it gets the help of Rating-Agendas,like Fitch,Poors,etc..also their Private Central Banking System,is helping at the moment,at this moment the Anglo Saxian Finance Elite,is forcing the Crash of the Euro..cause the Problems of the British Pound and the US Dollar are equal,to the Euro.Problems..maybe the Commodity Currencys will be the Big Winner at Last...;)

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:23 Schlomo

1:24

Valeria Bednarik:

I agree with you, is not about dollar strength, is about euro weakness what we are living today in markets. Yet, this week manufacturing readings in the US are a first, shy signal of growth... if growth differential keeps widening.. dollar will get more than luck

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:24 Valeria Bednarik

1:24

[Comment From MartinMartin: ]

Hi Valeria, eur/usd after 1.2660/80 support, which levels do you see to act as a strong support levels? thnx

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:24 Martin

1:25

Valeria Bednarik:

1.2630 1.2585 1.2550 zone

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:25 Valeria Bednarik

1:25

[Comment From Abhijit KulkarniAbhijit Kulkarni: ]

which is the strongest support for eur/usd pair?

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:25 Abhijit Kulkarni

1:25

FXstreet.com:

Sorry we have Just 10 minutes left. If you have anything related Forex market, please do not hesitate to ask Valeria.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:25 FXstreet.com

1:25

Valeria Bednarik:

short term 1.2660/80

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:25 Valeria Bednarik

1:25

[Comment From LeoLeo: ]

do you think there could be a break of Aud/USD below 0.9 soon?

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:25 Leo

1:26

Valeria Bednarik:

if we lose 0.9020 area, there is a chance. still no signal.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:26 Valeria Bednarik

1:28

[Comment From HASHEMHASHEM: ]

gold what do you think

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:28 HASHEM

1:28

Valeria Bednarik:

Hasem, check above, we already comment, but in general bullish tone

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:28 Valeria Bednarik

1:28

[Comment From LeoLeo: ]

what do you think is the next intervention point for EUr/CHF from swiss CB?

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:28 Leo

1:29

Valeria Bednarik:

probably 1.400 area, but i don't knowwhat they think really.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:29 Valeria Bednarik

1:29

[Comment From kamkam: ]

do you see the euro collapsing towards parity with the dollar

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:29 kam

1:30

Valeria Bednarik:

Seems a bit too much at this point for me. 1.16/1.18 is the most I can see.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:30 Valeria Bednarik

1:30

[Comment From kamkam: ]

what will make the euro go strong again? and when you think

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:30 kam

1:31

Valeria Bednarik:

good question... a general recovery in all the countries, greece paying debts and loans on time, production increasing in all eurozone, employment reverting in Spain and Portugal..... and maybe 1 year

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:31 Valeria Bednarik

1:31

[Comment From kamkam: ]

Hi dear Val, do you believe as we hear, that the euro will be done with in ten years time

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:31 kam

1:32

Valeria Bednarik:

Kam, not sure If I will be alive tomorrow, really I cant forecast what will happen with euro in 10 years! talking about BELIEVE. I don't believe it, no.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:32 Valeria Bednarik

1:32

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Hi Val, what about the USDJPY? I usually find this one harder to trade, when I apply my techniques, why is it that? Do you find it more unpredictable?

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:32 Guest

1:34

Valeria Bednarik:

I do believe each pair has a certain behaviour that we need to learn and understand to trade it. Maybe your technique is great with the rest of the pairs but does not apply to yen. try to follow it with simple moving averages, and a CCI with 200 and -200 levels instead of 100, or test any otrher technque there.. to find a more accurate one.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:34 Valeria Bednarik

1:35

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

eur/jpy: if closes below 119.54, where do you see it going the next week or so?

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:35 Guest

1:35	Thursday May 6, 2010 1:35

1:37

Valeria Bednarik:

117.40 area; pair has broke under a not the best ascendant trend line, and is quoting under 120.00..general tone remains bearish with 118.80 as inmmediate support if we lose today's low. 120 is now first resistance, ahead of 120.60/70 area for today.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:37 Valeria Bednarik

1:37

FXstreet.com:

Sorry we are short of time today, I have to wrap up the session.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:37 FXstreet.com

1:38

FXstreet.com:

Thank you Valeria for the great market view!... and every one who has joined the session today. I have had a great time with you.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:38 FXstreet.com

1:38

Valeria Bednarik:

Ok, as always, my pleasure to be here with you today! remember to protect your trades, and wait untill Trichet is over to take trading decisions! I also had a great time here.. See you back tonight with UK elections results!

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:38 Valeria Bednarik

1:38

FXstreet.com:

Valeria, please give us a final word.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:38 FXstreet.com

1:38

Valeria Bednarik:

Have a great trading day!

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:38 Valeria Bednarik

1:40

FXstreet.com:

Alright evey one,, Thank you for coming today! I hope to see you all tonight at 21:00 GMT in the UK Election live coverage. Have a nice trading day!
See you later!

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:40 FXstreet.com

1:40

FXstreet.com:

Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:40 FXstreet.com

1:40

FXstreet.com:

Thursday May 6, 2010 1:40 FXstreet.com

1:40

Posted by FXstreet Team in Fundamental Analysis, Live Coverage, Market Viewpoint & Live Commentary, Open Discussion | Permalink | Comments (0)

04/30/2010

GDP Live Coverage

US GDP Live Coverage with Valeria Bednarik

(04/30/2010)

1:15

FXstreet.com:

Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Friday April 30, 2010 1:15 FXstreet.com

1:15

FXstreet.com:

Friday April 30, 2010 1:15 FXstreet.com

1:16

FXstreet.com:

Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's U.S. GDP Live Coverage will start shortly. I am really pleased to introduce Valeria Bednarik who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. She will be giving us a direct picture for the market status.

Friday April 30, 2010 1:16 FXstreet.com

1:17

FXstreet.com:

Friday April 30, 2010 1:17 FXstreet.com

1:18

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi everyone and welcome to this Live Coverage! as usual, my pleasure to share this space with you and Fxstreet.com.

Friday April 30, 2010 1:18 Valeria Bednarik

1:18

FXstreet.com:

She currently works as chief analyst for Fxstreet.com, and trough her own company, manages an important clients portfolio for Fxsolutions, also training new traders around the word.

Friday April 30, 2010 1:18 FXstreet.com

1:19

Valeria Bednarik:

We are here waiting for US GDP advanced quarter reading, expected around 3.4% from an already revisited to the downside 5.6% last 2009 quarter.

Friday April 30, 2010 1:19 Valeria Bednarik

1:20

[Comment From Kevin BellKevin Bell: ]

If the US GDP is higher than the consensus at 3.3% where do you think we could drop to in the EURUSD currency pair?

Friday April 30, 2010 1:20 Kevin Bell

1:20	Friday April 30, 2010 1:20

1:21	Friday April 30, 2010 1:21

1:21

Valeria Bednarik:

I do believe that sentiment is today ruling markets, so a better than expecetd reading will probably trigger a bullish rally in stocks, and so, dollar down . EUR/USD has break above a descednant trend line, pullback and remains above it, wwith a bullish tone coming from this 4 hours chart

Friday April 30, 2010 1:21 Valeria Bednarik

1:22

Valeria Bednarik:

as long as above 1.3280, pair can regain teh upside, and test 1.3340 ahead of 1.3380 zone. Under 1.3280, supports come at 1.3220/30 area, and 1.3180

Friday April 30, 2010 1:22 Valeria Bednarik

1:22

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Do you see the USDJPY moving up from the US GDP

Friday April 30, 2010 1:22 Guest

1:22	Friday April 30, 2010 1:22

1:24

Valeria Bednarik:

If stocks react strongly to the reading, yes, pair likley to be the first one moving. We are above the 94.40 now support area, with resistances at 94.85 and 95.20 zone. Strong support comes at 93.70, I cna't see the pair losing that at this point.

Friday April 30, 2010 1:24 Valeria Bednarik

1:24

[Comment From rezrez: ]

what is the best pair after the figures comes out?

Friday April 30, 2010 1:24 rez

1:24

Valeria Bednarik:

yen crosses will be interesting. Pound also.

Friday April 30, 2010 1:24 Valeria Bednarik

1:24

[Comment From Junaid PervaizJunaid Pervaiz: ]

Can u please give ur analysis on GBP as well

Friday April 30, 2010 1:24 Junaid Pervaiz

1:24	Friday April 30, 2010 1:24

1:25

Valeria Bednarik:

As comment on the blog, pair has tested several times teh 1.5310 zone, and now we broke it in pre report position adjustment! pair is adressing to 1.5270/80 support area; under it, rally could extend to the 1.5220 zone, ahead of 1.5160. Strong resistance now lies at the 1.5330 level, daily highs from most of this April, with next one at 1.5385

Friday April 30, 2010 1:25 Valeria Bednarik

1:25

[Comment From arbenarben: ]

Hi Valeria! how about eur-usd today?

Friday April 30, 2010 1:25 arben

1:26

Valeria Bednarik:

Short term, as commented above, pair has a slightly bullish perspective, as optimism about Greece bailout spreads a bit. Still I do see mid term, long term trend pretty bearish.

Friday April 30, 2010 1:26 Valeria Bednarik

1:27

[Comment From Bollinger ManBollinger Man: ]

Hello Valeria, what do you think the GDP will affect the USDCOP and its correlationship with the COPINR?

Friday April 30, 2010 1:27 Bollinger Man

1:28

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi Bollinger man, I really don't follow COP, sorry my friend! I know I promised you to do that ! Will start watching it today.

Friday April 30, 2010 1:28 Valeria Bednarik

1:28

[Comment From AnkitAnkit: ]

What do you think of AUDJPY

Friday April 30, 2010 1:28 Ankit

1:30

Valeria Bednarik:

I have been stating several times here, that aussie remains the strongest currency across the board, while Yen should start weakening as for Japan economic conditions, aiming for 100.00 against dollar. In general, aud holds a strong bullish tone, with pair at 88.00. Strong support from 2008 weekly low. Rally shoud at least be halted around here, yet an acceleration higher, liklely signal further continuation today.

Friday April 30, 2010 1:30 Valeria Bednarik

1:30

[Comment From Bollinger ManBollinger Man: ]

Somebody write today that correlation between USD and Gold has become positive, what do you think about it?

Friday April 30, 2010 1:30 Bollinger Man

1:30	Friday April 30, 2010 1:30

1:31

Valeria Bednarik:

I believe is too early to say. We can't call for a strong cahnge in such correlation, just for a couple of daily movements. Gold is strongly up and tending higher, as for turmoil in markets, acting as the safe haven; we are heading higher here maybe 1185 zone

Friday April 30, 2010 1:31 Valeria Bednarik

1:32

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

im yen short, where to place stop?

Friday April 30, 2010 1:32 Guest

1:32

Valeria Bednarik:

if we overcome 94.85 as comment above, pair has good chances of extending to levels above 95.00

Friday April 30, 2010 1:32 Valeria Bednarik

1:32

Valeria Bednarik:

worse than expected. Data is worse than expected 3.2% advanced GDP

Friday April 30, 2010 1:32 Valeria Bednarik

1:33

[Comment From SebSeb: ]

Good Day Valeria, what would you expect from NZDUSD today? Thanks

Friday April 30, 2010 1:33 Seb

1:33

FXstreet.com:

US GDP (1Q A ) 3.2% vs Forecast 3.3%

Friday April 30, 2010 1:33 FXstreet.com

1:33

Valeria Bednarik:

I was following an ascendant daily channel there, pair broke it to the upside, daily charts.

Friday April 30, 2010 1:33 Valeria Bednarik

1:35

Valeria Bednarik:

Due to its economic correlation with Australia, pair holds a strong bullish tone, thus 0.7300 won't be an easy level to overcome. Above it resistances lie at 0.7330 and 0.7370, while support are at 0.7260, previous daily high, and roof of the channel. Pair should stay above that level to hold the bullish tone

Friday April 30, 2010 1:35 Valeria Bednarik

1:35

[Comment From mhaaraanmhaaraan: ]

with greece debt threat almost solved what will the eurusd direction be

Friday April 30, 2010 1:35 mhaaraan

1:36

Valeria Bednarik:

Do you really believe its almost solved?? Greece will have to face a several billions payment next May 19th, Portugal and Spain are also in a quite bad situation, that gets worse day after day. I'm stillseeing a lot of talking, and no action.... The European economic recovery from here if they start acting, will take more than a couple of years.

Friday April 30, 2010 1:36 Valeria Bednarik

1:37

Valeria Bednarik:

Short term, market gained a bit confidence and we have a bullish day, ok. But midterm talking, euro will remain under pressure. maybe 1.3600 level, can't see it moving higher than that

Friday April 30, 2010 1:37 Valeria Bednarik

1:37

[Comment From shariqshariq: ]

any comments on eur/aud if possible

Friday April 30, 2010 1:37 shariq

1:39

Valeria Bednarik:

Eur/aud, is the exact example of where market forces are: aussie strongest euro weakest.. and pair at muti years low. Correcting slightly to the upside today, daily charts show no sign of a reversal in current bearish trend. Hittinh 1.4300, resistances for the pair 1.4350, and 1.4390, while supports lie at 1.4260 and 1.4220 zone

Friday April 30, 2010 1:39 Valeria Bednarik

1:40

[Comment From ettaetta: ]

3.2 on GDP, how where will the eur/usd go?

Friday April 30, 2010 1:40 etta

1:40

[Comment From ettaetta: ]

with that GDP@3.2% , how does it affect the EURUSD?

Friday April 30, 2010 1:40 etta

1:42

Valeria Bednarik:

As usual, fundamental close to expectations, won't be able to interrupt previous market trend. Pair has made a pullback to the 1.3300 area, and is back gaining the upside, we need to accelerate above 1.3340, to extend the rally, to next mentioned resistance zones, 1.3385, and 1.3420

Friday April 30, 2010 1:42 Valeria Bednarik

1:42

[Comment From rezrez: ]

now where do u see usd?thanks

Friday April 30, 2010 1:42 rez

1:42

Valeria Bednarik:

losing ground rez, at least this first spike, let's give market 15 minutes to see if trend is able to hold.

Friday April 30, 2010 1:42 Valeria Bednarik

1:43

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Do you think usdjpy can move above 94.40 now

Friday April 30, 2010 1:43 Guest

1:44

Valeria Bednarik:

Pair is testing the area, and maybe short term we are seing a downside corrective movement, yet it holds the bullish tone. I still see pair approaching to 95.50 area, probably next week.

Friday April 30, 2010 1:44 Valeria Bednarik

1:44

[Comment From MichaelMichael: ]

Hi Val, do you think EURUSD will resume its downtrend after this correction?

Friday April 30, 2010 1:44 Michael

1:44

Valeria Bednarik:

I do yes, we need to see how this week ends, and where pair close it: as long as under 1.3420, chances remain to the downside.

Friday April 30, 2010 1:44 Valeria Bednarik

1:44

[Comment From VarunVarun: ]

Hello Valeria, Will Euro fall back to it's recent lows again?

Friday April 30, 2010 1:44 Varun

1:45

Valeria Bednarik:

I can't state that my friend, I have a bearish bias still mid term talking, but we know trend wont move straigth and corrections in the midlle always take place. Watch for 1.3420 to keep the upside limited.

Friday April 30, 2010 1:45 Valeria Bednarik

1:45

[Comment From FawadFawad: ]

hi val, as u said that u see eur/usd bearish in the mid term n long term so high pair can go in the short run

Friday April 30, 2010 1:45 Fawad

1:46

Valeria Bednarik:

Well, that's my intention, seek for the best point to do it, after live coverage is over.. ;)

Friday April 30, 2010 1:46 Valeria Bednarik

1:46

[Comment From Junaid PervaizJunaid Pervaiz: ]

So in euro do we expect it till 1.2850 or do u see a further move down

Friday April 30, 2010 1:46 Junaid Pervaiz

1:47

Valeria Bednarik:

under 1.3100, I do see a good chance of reaching that 1.2850 strong support area, yet at this point i can't see much more further.

Friday April 30, 2010 1:47 Valeria Bednarik

1:47

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

wats the future of GBP/USD for today?

Friday April 30, 2010 1:47 Guest

1:48

Valeria Bednarik:

as comment above, as long as above 1.5280 support just tested, pair has a bullish tone; resistances are at 1.5335 and 1.5390 area.

Friday April 30, 2010 1:48 Valeria Bednarik

1:48

[Comment From SangramSangram: ]

with the US markets showing positive results..wat do you expect from GBP/USD?

Friday April 30, 2010 1:48 Sangram

1:48

Valeria Bednarik:

exactly Sangram, rises in pound, as long as support holds.

Friday April 30, 2010 1:48 Valeria Bednarik

1:48

[Comment From rezrez: ]

in such a time like this that figures are positive but worse than expected what is the best things to do or trade?

Friday April 30, 2010 1:48 rez

1:49

Valeria Bednarik:

Good question! trade the trend.. will never let you down.

Friday April 30, 2010 1:49 Valeria Bednarik

1:49

[Comment From sigmafxsigmafx: ]

Hi Val, any comment for eur/gbp?

Friday April 30, 2010 1:49 sigmafx

1:51

Valeria Bednarik:

I have been following the pair trapped in between 0.8600 strong support area, weekly charts clear, and the 0.8700 zone, base of a huge triangle pair has also in the weekly chart. we are approaching to weekly high now, around 0.8730 area, where we also have the 20 SMA with a bullish slope in the daily chart. Pair needs to break either above it or under 0.8600 to get rid of current range and define a clearer trend

Friday April 30, 2010 1:51 Valeria Bednarik

1:51

[Comment From SangramSangram: ]

thnxs a lot Val..

Friday April 30, 2010 1:51 Sangram

1:51

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Swissy further down?

Friday April 30, 2010 1:51 Guest

1:53

Valeria Bednarik:

USD/CHF is barely under 1.0770/80 resistance area, tending yes, lower with 1.0730 and 1.0680 as next downside targets. Be aware is month end today, and SNB has been intervining markets around this date since past September, so trade it wisely and with tight stops.

Friday April 30, 2010 1:53 Valeria Bednarik

1:53

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Hi Val. Do you see the 3340-50 zone (EUR/USD) strong enough to push the price back down today? Especially since the indicators show it is slightly in the overbought area. Thx.

Friday April 30, 2010 1:53 Guest

1:54

Valeria Bednarik:

It is in fact a strong resistance level, yt if pair catchs speed an accelerates above likely to continue, something at this point seems likely. slighty ovebougth in the hourly, yet not enough to call for a strong rebound there...

Friday April 30, 2010 1:54 Valeria Bednarik

1:55

[Comment From VarunVarun: ]

Thank You Valeria,I agree with You & I will watch for that 1.3420 level. Any suggestion for Crude Oil

Friday April 30, 2010 1:55 Varun

1:56

Valeria Bednarik:

Oil is again heading higher, strong come back from 81 zone suggest bullish trend remains intact there. I see resistances at 86.40, 86.70 and 87.20 zone.

Friday April 30, 2010 1:56 Valeria Bednarik

1:56

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

EURJPY reversal?

Friday April 30, 2010 1:56 Guest

1:56

[Comment From elderelder: ]

where do you see eur/jpy and gbp/jpy?

Friday April 30, 2010 1:56 elder

1:58

Valeria Bednarik:

As comment above, yen crosses hold a bullish bias, thus yes, 126.00/30 area has been quite strong in EJ to offer some however, we are at 125.70 area: supports come at 125.50 125.00 and strong one at 124.40. above 126.30, pair could reach 127.00 today.

Friday April 30, 2010 1:58 Valeria Bednarik

2:00

Valeria Bednarik:

REgarding GBP/JPY, we hold the bullsih tone after strong rebound from 141.60 area, 61.8% retracement of past daily bullish rally. from 139 to 146

Friday April 30, 2010 2:00 Valeria Bednarik

2:01

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Where do you see support level for today on usdjpy & do you think it can go above 94.45 today.

Friday April 30, 2010 2:01 Guest

2:02

FXstreet.com:

Sorry we have Just 10 minutes left. If you have anything related Forex market, please do not hesitate to ask Valeria

Friday April 30, 2010 2:02 FXstreet.com

2:03

Valeria Bednarik:

we are just under that level. If we lose 94.10 area, next support comes at 93.70 strong zone. can't see it losing that area at this point, yer under 94.40, chances are to the downside.

Friday April 30, 2010 2:03 Valeria Bednarik

2:03

[Comment From VarunVarun: ]

Thank You Valeria, Does Oil leakage in Gulf of Mexico have any impact on the Crude Oil?

Friday April 30, 2010 2:03 Varun

2:03

Valeria Bednarik:

Well yes, it's helping furhter bullish momentum in the barrel, yet seems it don't need it to rise at this point.

Friday April 30, 2010 2:03 Valeria Bednarik

2:04

[Comment From ettaetta: ]

with Goldman Sachs charged, a hanging Greek bailout, and now this GDP, how do you gel all this together and create a bias?

Friday April 30, 2010 2:04 etta

2:04

Valeria Bednarik:

That's a great quesion, and the answer is divided in short term, and long term..

Friday April 30, 2010 2:04 Valeria Bednarik

2:06

Valeria Bednarik:

short term, greece bailout, not so bad news at the end, as they are barely under expectations, are pushing dollar slightly lower against greenback... Long term, european recovery will be tougth, we have elections in the UK and Germany, Goldman being sue.. all taht generates a risk aversion enviroment that will be favoring dollar rises.

Friday April 30, 2010 2:06 Valeria Bednarik

2:06

[Comment From bandersbanders: ]

thank you valeria

Friday April 30, 2010 2:06 banders

2:06

[Comment From ettaetta: ]

thanks Val

Friday April 30, 2010 2:06 etta

2:06

[Comment From sumitsumit: ]

what do u thin abt GBP/USD and GBP/CHF....please advice...??

Friday April 30, 2010 2:06 sumit

2:08

Valeria Bednarik:

I comment several times above about gbp/usd, please check. Regarding GBP/CHF pair has a bearish tone ahead, with immediate supports at 1.6455 and 1.6420 strong area that should be today's floor if reached

Friday April 30, 2010 2:08 Valeria Bednarik

2:08

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Hey Val, just wondering for the gu pair, what is the time frame chart you use to get your signals? Thanks in advance...

Friday April 30, 2010 2:08 Guest

2:09

Valeria Bednarik:

4 and 1 hours charts.. being an intraday trader, I preffer to set my supp resistances, and trend int he 4 hours one, and trade the hourly, favoring what the bigger one is telling me.

Friday April 30, 2010 2:09 Valeria Bednarik

2:09

[Comment From mhaaraanmhaaraan: ]

thanks Val for all the great answers that u hv given have a great trading day

Friday April 30, 2010 2:09 mhaaraan

2:09

Valeria Bednarik:

Same for you!

Friday April 30, 2010 2:09 Valeria Bednarik

2:09

[Comment From RamaRama: ]

What is your favorite today

Friday April 30, 2010 2:09 Rama

2:10

Valeria Bednarik:

umm this is the most personal view, and don't take it as a trading signal! but I will be watching aussie.. I see the 0.9330/50 area as a good selling oportunity... counter trend trade there seems likely for me!

Friday April 30, 2010 2:10 Valeria Bednarik

2:11

[Comment From zaphyzaphy: ]

Shouldn't the environment you just described favour JPY as well? safe haven buying of yen?

Friday April 30, 2010 2:11 zaphy

2:12

Valeria Bednarik:

That's another great question!!! should yes, but due to bearish strong tone in yen, the effect is just avoiding it to ful further, ergo, to see crosses gaining the upside strongly. Japan deflation, moving capitals to foreign investments, and lawmakers there asking for 120! against dollar, will continue ot keep the downside limited.

Friday April 30, 2010 2:12 Valeria Bednarik

2:13

FXstreet.com:

Sorry we are short of time today, I have to wrap up the session.

Friday April 30, 2010 2:13 FXstreet.com

2:13

FXstreet.com:

Thank you Valeria for the great market view!... and every one who has joined the session today. I have had a great time with you.

Friday April 30, 2010 2:13 FXstreet.com

2:13

Valeria Bednarik:

There is never one factor in market affecting a currency. remember is a number of them ;)

Friday April 30, 2010 2:13 Valeria Bednarik

2:13

FXstreet.com:

Valerica, please give us a final word

Friday April 30, 2010 2:13 FXstreet.com

2:13

Valeria Bednarik:

Ok time to go now! as usual, my pleasure to be here with you all! have a great trading day, and a better week end! remember to trade what you see, not what you believe!

Friday April 30, 2010 2:13 Valeria Bednarik

2:14

Valeria Bednarik:

see you back on Sunday with the weekly opening market live coverage!

Friday April 30, 2010 2:14 Valeria Bednarik

2:14

[Comment From VarunVarun: ]

Thank You very much Valeria, Wish You wonderful weekend. Thank You FXStreet

Friday April 30, 2010 2:14 Varun

2:14

[Comment From ettaetta: ]

thanks so much...

Friday April 30, 2010 2:14 etta

2:14

FXstreet.com:

Thank you Valeria! See you!

Friday April 30, 2010 2:14 FXstreet.com

2:14

FXstreet.com:

Alright evey one,, Thank you for coming today! I hope to see you all in the next live coverage. Have a nice trading day!
Bye for now!

Friday April 30, 2010 2:14 FXstreet.com

2:15

FXstreet.com:

Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Friday April 30, 2010 2:15 FXstreet.com

2:15

FXstreet.com:

Friday April 30, 2010 2:15 FXstreet.com

2:15

Posted by FXstreet Team in Fundamental Analysis, Live Coverage, Market Viewpoint & Live Commentary, Open Discussion | Permalink | Comments (0)

04/28/2010

Fed Interest Rate Decision Live Coverage

Fed Interest Rate Decision with Valeria Bednarik

(04/28/2010)

7:00

FXstreet.com:

Welcome everyone to our LIVE COVERAGE of the FOMC Meeting today!

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:00 FXstreet.com

7:02

FXstreet.com:

Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. The FOMC Interest rate decision Live Coverage is going to start shortly. I am pleased to introduce Valeria Bednarik who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. She will be giving us a direct picture for the market status.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:02 FXstreet.com

7:03

FXstreet.com:

Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:03 FXstreet.com

7:03

FXstreet.com:

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:03 FXstreet.com

7:04

FXstreet.com:

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:04 FXstreet.com

7:05

FXstreet.com:

She currently works as chief analyst for Fxstreet.com, and trough her own company, manages an important clients portfolio for Fxsolutions, also training new traders around the word.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:05 FXstreet.com

7:06

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi everyone, and welcome to this live coverage! As always, a pleasure to share this space with Fxstreet.com and you!

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:06 Valeria Bednarik

7:06

FXstreet.com:

Valeria, how are you today? Thanks for being with us again for another live coverage

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:06 FXstreet.com

7:10

[Comment From WaqasWaqas: ]

Bp Next support level .. and reason of rising gold with Dollar

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:10 Waqas

7:10

FXstreet.com:

Valeria is having trouble with the Coveritlive platform, sorry for the inconvenience, she is working on it and should be back in just a moment. Thanks for your patience

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:10 FXstreet.com

7:14

FXstreet.com:

We are waiting for Val, sorry again. She is unable to post comment, she is restarting her system now.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:14 FXstreet.com

7:14

FXstreet.com:

I will post the data when it comes out, stay with us, Valeria should join us soon, thanks

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:14 FXstreet.com

7:15

FXstreet.com:

ON HOLD

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:15 FXstreet.com

7:17

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi All!!! so sorry for the inconvinience!

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:17 Valeria Bednarik

7:17

Valeria Bednarik:

but I'mhere now!

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:17 Valeria Bednarik

7:17

FXstreet.com:

hi Val

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:17 FXstreet.com

7:17

FXstreet.com:

Nice to have you back

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:17 FXstreet.com

7:17

FXstreet.com:

Rates unchanged

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:17 FXstreet.com

7:18

Valeria Bednarik:

I see a lot of comments, and questions, but let's focus in what going on in market ok?

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:18 Valeria Bednarik

7:18

FXstreet.com:

I let you comment the markets and answer the questions from our users!

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:18 FXstreet.com

7:18

Valeria Bednarik:

Lwe are not waiting FEd to change it's dovish stance, I do believe that they will keep on with the low rates for an extended period. Anyway! let's start with questions, but keep in minf, this could be a chance to trigger some corrective movements

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:18 Valeria Bednarik

7:19

[Comment From AbdulAbdul: ]

What about euro/usd range for fall

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:19 Abdul

7:20

Valeria Bednarik:

Eiro is no douts after a lot of pressure after S&P downgraded Spain today, after hitting Portugal and Greece yesterday. Pair is at 12 months low, 1.3115 is todays' low

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:20 Valeria Bednarik

7:20	Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:20

7:21

Valeria Bednarik:

capped by 1.3180 area fro now, sorrythat's a bit old chart

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:21 Valeria Bednarik

7:21

Valeria Bednarik:

under today's low, next support comes at the 1.3075 area, but mid term target for the pair is the 1.2850 area at this point.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:21 Valeria Bednarik

7:21

[Comment From martinmartin: ]

hi, eur/gbp. do you think this pair favor uptrend and what will be the support & resistance?

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:21 martin

7:23

Valeria Bednarik:

I do see the pair has broke the base of a weekly channel, and remains capped under it.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:23 Valeria Bednarik

7:23	Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:23

7:23

Valeria Bednarik:

around the 0.8700 area, so that is a huge resistance for the pair rigth now, and we actually will need a weekly close above that broken descendant trned line, to consider chances of an upside rally there.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:23 Valeria Bednarik

7:24

Valeria Bednarik:

however, 0.8600 is also quite a strong support area, and seems not easy to break for the pair.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:24 Valeria Bednarik

7:24

Valeria Bednarik:

currently,quoting around 0.8670, shorter term charts show a consolidative stage there

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:24 Valeria Bednarik

7:24

[Comment From adamadam: ]

Hi Valeria, what outcome would enable the euro to recover from this decision ?

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:24 adam

7:25	Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:25

7:25

Valeria Bednarik:

I do blelieve that no outcome of this particular decision, will change euro situation

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:25 Valeria Bednarik

7:26

Valeria Bednarik:

despite some recovery now, to 1.3170 current price, general trend remains strongly bearish. above 1.3220, pair could attempt again to correct to 1.3265 intraday high, but if we lose 1.3140/30 zone again, I would expect a rally to mentioned 1.3075

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:26 Valeria Bednarik

7:27

Valeria Bednarik:

Commodity currencies are rising strongly now against dollar!

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:27 Valeria Bednarik

7:27

Valeria Bednarik:

as comment at the begining of the live coverage, could well be the excuse market was needing for a correction. Anyway remember EURO remains the weakest currency across the board.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:27 Valeria Bednarik

7:28

[Comment From johnjohn: ]

hi there. the aud/usd pair, what will be the support level?

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:28 john

7:28

Valeria Bednarik:

We are there aroudn 0.9260, with immediate resistances at 0.9300 area, and 0.9330; under 0.9230, supports come at 0.92000 and 0.9170.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:28 Valeria Bednarik

7:29

FXstreet.com:

This is a link to the Official Statement: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20100428a.htm

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:29 FXstreet.com

7:29

Valeria Bednarik:

ok Fed statement said again the extremely low for an extended period.. no changes there.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:29 Valeria Bednarik

7:29

[Comment From paulpaul: ]

if fed increase 25 bps/ no increase what would be low/ high for euro and cable now

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:29 paul

7:30

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi Paul as comment on previous coverages, seems hard to see FED moving rates until second half this year

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:30 Valeria Bednarik

7:30	Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:30

7:31

Valeria Bednarik:

Regarding GBP/USD, pair has reached an interesting bottom today, the 1.5130 zone.. daily charts show a good number of daily lows of this April, there, as well as several daily highs from February, turning the zone into a quite strong support area.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:31 Valeria Bednarik

7:32

Valeria Bednarik:

currently quoting at 1.5185, pair has resistances around 1.5220 and 1.5260 ahead, thus really seem with no strength to rise from here.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:32 Valeria Bednarik

7:32

Valeria Bednarik:

under 1.5160, pair likley to retest that mentioned area, that if broken could trigger a more interesting selling rally, with 1.5050 and 1.4990 as next supports to consider.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:32 Valeria Bednarik

7:33

[Comment From vikvik: ]

gold?

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:33 vik

7:33	Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:33

7:35

Valeria Bednarik:

as you can see in the chart, gold is around this year highs, reached earlier today. In turmoin times as the ones we are living now with the eurozone, is the best refugee for investors; gold holds a bullish tone and above 1174, next resistance area comes at 1182 zone. At this point, seems unlikley to see it moving under 1162 first support ahead of 1153 area

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:35 Valeria Bednarik

7:35

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

usd strength is displaying well in usdjpy. will it move to 95 or it will strengthen towards 93 level in month end flow.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:35 Guest

7:35	Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:35

7:36

Valeria Bednarik:

strong recovery from 92.80 area suggest further upside pressure to come in the pair. I do hold a bearish perspective for yen, that os abullish tone for all yen crosses.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:36 Valeria Bednarik

7:37

Valeria Bednarik:

however, 94.40 seems to be a strong barrier where Japanese exporters are rumored to be selling; we need to accelerate above that level, and we are getting closer, to see pair reaching next resistance area, around 94.80

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:37 Valeria Bednarik

7:37

Valeria Bednarik:

mnid term talking pair has a huge resistance in the 95.50 zone. Above it, 98 is probably next. Support from current level lie at 94.10, 93.75 and 93.30 not seen at this point.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:37 Valeria Bednarik

7:37

[Comment From HannaHanna: ]

Do U think that EUR/USD will go to 1.30

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:37 Hanna

7:39

Valeria Bednarik:

Not today, but there is a big chance if the euro zone keeps talking and not acting to solve there soverign debt issues... we are heading now to 1.3220 resistance zone. and pair will need to close the day above 1.3270 to turn slightly bullish, something I dont see at this point,.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:39 Valeria Bednarik

7:39

[Comment From MazenMazen: ]

Do you see any further downward pressure on the Euro today based o nthe unchaged US FED rates?

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:39 Mazen

7:39

[Comment From BlairBlair: ]

Hi, Val, you think any chance of the corrective move for the EUR/USD after the rate decision?

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:39 Blair

7:40

Valeria Bednarik:

As comment above, Euro is under pressure. What we are seen rigth now could well be consider corrective as long as under 1.3310 zone

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:40 Valeria Bednarik

7:40

[Comment From AbhijitAbhijit: ]

is fed news positive enough to give a boost to usd?

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:40 Abhijit

7:40

Valeria Bednarik:

on contrary, os not enough, as they again announced they will keep rates on hold for an extended period. However, that has nothing to do with euro self weakness

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:40 Valeria Bednarik

7:41

[Comment From shariqshariq: ]

any view of your's on EUR /AUD

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:41 shariq

7:41

Valeria Bednarik:

While I believe Euro is the weakest, I also see the Aussie as the strongest currency across the board. Pair is at multiyears low, yet there is no sign that bearish trend is over.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:41 Valeria Bednarik

7:43

Valeria Bednarik:

I really don't have any downside support for the pair, maybe the 1.4200 area. as historically, we have no references of price around this level.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:43 Valeria Bednarik

7:43

[Comment From HannaHanna: ]

do you think that Euro will recover to go to the 1.35 area

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:43 Hanna

7:44

Valeria Bednarik:

not really my friend. as comment above, we had rating agencies downgrading European countries one after the other... I dont see any soon relief for the hegemonic currency.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:44 Valeria Bednarik

7:45

[Comment From AbhijitAbhijit: ]

gbp/usd oversold, still it can go down?

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:45 Abhijit

7:46

Valeria Bednarik:

Oversold in which time frame? it all depends how you look at the pair. Short term ttalking, we are seing some corrective movement that can't reach 1.5220 resistance area, and after first spike, majors had settle down; will be a matter of a few hours till they regain previous trend.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:46 Valeria Bednarik

7:47

Valeria Bednarik:

as always, fundamental news, when they are not shocking, are just "noise" in the market, and they can hardly change a strong trend.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:47 Valeria Bednarik

7:48

Valeria Bednarik:

and we do have a strong dollar trend, regardless if it's fair or not as for the US economic conditions...

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:48 Valeria Bednarik

7:48

[Comment From Mazen BakhbakhiMazen Bakhbakhi: ]

How do you see the coming sovereign credit crisis in Eurozone affecting demand for commodities such as Crude Oil?

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:48 Mazen Bakhbakhi

7:49

Valeria Bednarik:

Good question! I dont believe this crisis will be enough to reduce demand of oil,

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:49 Valeria Bednarik

7:51

Valeria Bednarik:

and so, I don't see it hardly affected by euro zone woes. But if the crisis is not solved quickly, i do see it affecting more than just europe; however, I still can't believe ECB will be the one responsable for destroying them self.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:51 Valeria Bednarik

7:51

[Comment From tiet vntiet vn: ]

hi! what perspective for usd/cad while oil under 83

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:51 tiet vn

7:52

[Comment From Ryan LasmailiRyan Lasmaili: ]

The USD/CAD seems to be negativ influenced by the fed decision, what outcome is going to have?

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:52 Ryan Lasmaili

7:53

Valeria Bednarik:

I do see the CAD still strong and with further chances of extending the rally, so USD/CAD likley to test parity, or even break lower. I will be worried if oil losses this year base of $ 80. per barrel, and not before. Pair remains bearish, with supports at 1.0065, 1.0030 and 0.9980. We need to clear trhe 1.0250 zone, to see a change in the trend.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:53 Valeria Bednarik

7:53

[Comment From pepapepa: ]

hi, do you think that USD/CAD will go to 0.9750

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:53 pepa

7:53

Valeria Bednarik:

and I rather see 0.9850 as an important low there.. not seen it much further than that.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:53 Valeria Bednarik

7:54

[Comment From glen from indonesiaglen from indonesia: ]

Any rumor for kiwi rate ? will follow RBA? or still hold

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:54 glen from indonesia

7:54

Valeria Bednarik:

Sorry, I did not see anything regardin New Zealand these days. will try to found out and post it on the blog

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:54 Valeria Bednarik

7:55

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Not much volatility in majors why?

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:55 Guest

7:55

FXstreet.com:

Valeria's blog: http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:55 FXstreet.com

7:56

Valeria Bednarik:

Volatily after a report, comes when news are unexpected, shocking... the fact is that news today where far from being so. AS comment above, is a matter of time to see this effects dilute, and majors returning to pre report trend

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:56 Valeria Bednarik

7:56

[Comment From jbjb: ]

would the nzd/usd reach the next resistance on positve rbnz decision later today

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:56 jb

7:58

Valeria Bednarik:

Have jsut checked... rates are expected unchanged in New Zealand,. However, pair has a strong positive tone following aussie strength. Both countries are very close commercial partners, so there is little chance of seeing NZD losing ground agaisnt dollar

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:58 Valeria Bednarik

7:59

Valeria Bednarik:

resistances are at 0.7220 and 0.7255, while supports now lie at 0.7185 and 0.7150 area.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:59 Valeria Bednarik

7:59

[Comment From stevensteven: ]

what is the real cos of euro weakness and what could turn it around?

Wednesday April 28, 2010 7:59 steven

8:00

Valeria Bednarik:

Euro weakness comes from current debt crisis in Greece, Portugal and Spain.. and unless a real solution, I can't see it turning down yet.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 8:00 Valeria Bednarik

8:00

[Comment From jaynaljaynal: ]

do u think eur/usd will go to 1.3100

Wednesday April 28, 2010 8:00 jaynal

8:01

Valeria Bednarik:

as comment above, as long as capped by 1.3310 pair remains bearish.. till that level, we could consider current movemnt corrective.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 8:01 Valeria Bednarik

8:01

[Comment From jsjs: ]

Hi Valeria, which pair do you advice to trade for the nz rate announcement?

Wednesday April 28, 2010 8:01 js

8:02

Valeria Bednarik:

Probably Aud/Usd as reflection trade.. or the NZD/usd.. I don't trade the crosses of nzd

Wednesday April 28, 2010 8:02 Valeria Bednarik

8:02

[Comment From WaqasWaqas: ]

Did Gold prices will boost AUD

Wednesday April 28, 2010 8:02 Waqas

8:02

Valeria Bednarik:

There is a big chance of that yes.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 8:02 Valeria Bednarik

8:03

FXstreet.com:

We have to wtap up in just a moment, we will take one last question, thanks!

Wednesday April 28, 2010 8:03 FXstreet.com

8:03

[Comment From peterpeter: ]

how come EUD/CAD is fairly neutral compared to eud and others

Wednesday April 28, 2010 8:03 peter

8:05

Valeria Bednarik:

Do you really believe so? pair is also at several months low, showing also euro weakness. the fact is that now, both euro and cad are moving steadily against dollar, and so the cross shows no effect. is a news affecting dollar.. differnet is the situation if it was an euro or cad news.

Wednesday April 28, 2010 8:05 Valeria Bednarik

8:05

FXstreet.com:

Valeria, can you give us a last comment?

Wednesday April 28, 2010 8:05 FXstreet.com

8:07

Valeria Bednarik:

As always, remember to trade what you see, and not what you believe. News has been quite dissappointing in market reaction, just some noise that will dissapear in the next hours. And never ever forget to use stop loss! Have a great trading day! and today, my apologizes for the technical inconviniences. See you all back soon! Tks

Wednesday April 28, 2010 8:07 Valeria Bednarik

8:07

FXstreet.com:

Thanks Val for your time and for being with us today again! Thanks everyone for joining us, we hope you have enjoyed. Our next live coverage will be hosted on U.S. Gross Domestic Product - Apr. 30, 12:15 GMT

Wednesday April 28, 2010 8:07 FXstreet.com

8:10

Posted by FXstreet Team in Fundamental Analysis, Live Coverage, Market Viewpoint & Live Commentary, Open Discussion | Permalink | Comments (0)

04/20/2010

BoC Interest Rate Decision Live coverage

BoC Interest Rates Decision

(04/20/2010)

1:47

FXstreet.com:

Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:47 FXstreet.com

1:47

FXstreet.com:

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:47 FXstreet.com

1:47

FXstreet.com:

Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. The BoC Interest Rate Decision Live Coverage is going to start shortly. I am pleased to introduce Valeria Bednarik who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. She will be giving us a direct picture for the market status.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:47 FXstreet.com

1:47

FXstreet.com:

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:47 FXstreet.com

1:48

FXstreet.com:

She currently works as chief analyst for Fxstreet.com, and trough her own company, manages an important clients portfolio for Fxsolutions, also training new traders around the word.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:48 FXstreet.com

1:49

FXstreet.com:

Hi Valeria ! welcome back to the live coverage.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:49 FXstreet.com

1:49

FXstreet.com:

Hi every one how are you doing? Here we have BoC interest rate history.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:49 FXstreet.com

1:49

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi everyone and welcome to the live coverage! Tks for being here, and tks Fxstreet.com

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:49 Valeria Bednarik

1:50	Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:50

1:50

[Comment From leoleo: ]

hi, whats the % chance for a rate increase this round?

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:50 leo

1:51

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi Leo, despite market is not really forecasting a rate change, there is a chance of a 0.25% increase, following past months hawkish tone coming from the BOC. The fact is that I'm not so convinced any economy will dare to move before US, but we know Australia is doing it, so market has been lately pricing in a rate hike, sending Canadian dollar even under parity

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:51 Valeria Bednarik

1:51

[Comment From WaqasWaqas: ]

Did you see Increase in rates today after a long long time ???

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:51 Waqas

1:51

[Comment From leoleo: ]

Hi, whats the chance for a rate increase this round? and to what extend the hawkish remarks will be?

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:51 leo

1:52

Valeria Bednarik:

Yes, i do believe there is a chance, but I don't know how hawkish speech could be

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:52 Valeria Bednarik

1:52

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

how will this effect Eur/Usd?

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:52 Guest

1:53

Valeria Bednarik:

I do believe that if the desicion affects really cad, the reflection will be more clear in GBP than in EURO,

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:53 Valeria Bednarik

1:53	Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:53

1:54

Valeria Bednarik:

Euro, tested 1.3500 early today, mounted on better than expected ZEW reading, but as you can see, the pair was unable to hold the area, and is approaching to 1.3460 zone.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:54 Valeria Bednarik

1:55

Valeria Bednarik:

I do see that euro remains weak no matter what happens with the dollar or the rest of the currencies. If risk appetite returns full shape to markets, euro rallies likley to remain subdue compared to other majors

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:55 Valeria Bednarik

1:55

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

what u think about euro today if boc keep remain rate

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:55 Guest

1:55

Valeria Bednarik:

What I'm seing right now, is that pair is losing momentum after failing to hold above 1.3500; we need to overcome today's high to regain some intraday bullish strength, while under 1.3450/60 area, I dont discard a fall to the 1.3410/20 lows printed yesterday.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:55 Valeria Bednarik

1:56

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

how about USDJPY?

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:56 Guest

1:56	Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:56

1:57

Valeria Bednarik:

Well, pair erased most of past friday's loses, and is aprroaching to 93.10 area, 100% retracement. Above it, rally could extend to 93.40 and later 93.75 zone, but in general, i see the pair bullish, as all yen crosses. Anyway, i dont expect this pair to be affected by Cad rates decision, unless shocking change

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:57 Valeria Bednarik

1:58

[Comment From rajraj: ]

what effect on USD

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:58 raj

1:59

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

hi val...your live chart today is confusing???am not get where the ansers are pls do something

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:59 macharia

1:59

Valeria Bednarik:

well, of course will depend on the decision, but as comment above, will likely affect more CAD and GBP then, than the rest of the crosses. Anyway! Euro is losing momentum quickly, already under support as market start positon adjustments before the data

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:59 Valeria Bednarik

1:59

[Comment From leoleo: ]

do you reckon CAD could reach parity after the rate announcement considering the risk aversion we see last week?

Tuesday April 20, 2010 1:59 leo

2:00	Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:00

2:01

Valeria Bednarik:

USD/CAD has been in a clear and strong bearish trend since several weeks for now. I still consider last bullish rally as corrective, and pair is already under that 38.2% short term view

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:01 Valeria Bednarik

2:01

Valeria Bednarik:

RATES UNCHAGED!

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:01 Valeria Bednarik

2:01

Valeria Bednarik:

Cad accelerate to the downside, and approachs to parity

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:01 Valeria Bednarik

2:02

Valeria Bednarik:

dollar is losing ground against others rivals, but as you can see, reaction is quite lmited

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:02 Valeria Bednarik

2:02

[Comment From SebSeb: ]

Good Day Valeria, what would you expect for GBP/CAD today? Thanks

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:02 Seb

2:03

Valeria Bednarik:

we need to give market 15 minutes to settle down and diggest the news, but in general cad crosses had a bearish perspective at this point. Let me take a look at the statment, likley hawkish as expected.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:03 Valeria Bednarik

2:03

[Comment From kspreddykspreddy: ]

can we go for long in gold at current levels......thanks

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:03 kspreddy

2:04

Valeria Bednarik:

Sorry my friend, I cant' suggest trades here, but what I see is that gold has a support around 1136/38 level, and is technically bullish.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:04 Valeria Bednarik

2:04

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Canada is a oil producer... How about oil price?

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:04 Guest

2:04	Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:04

2:05

Valeria Bednarik:

Good question! as you can see, in the chart, oil has set a base in the $ 80 per barrel zone, that has been a roof for most of the 2009. Prices are unable to fall, and we are currently testing the 38.2% retracement of past daily fall around 83.80

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:05 Valeria Bednarik

2:06

Valeria Bednarik:

OK! BOC says it 's appropriate to begin removeing monetary stimulus

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:06 Valeria Bednarik

2:07

Valeria Bednarik:

That's hawkish stance, Anyway! and back to oil, I do believe we have a bullish perspective there, heading to 85 where the 61.8% retracement is. above this last, black gold could extend rally

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:07 Valeria Bednarik

2:07

[Comment From backnbackbacknback: ]

can we expect 0.9850 in usd cad today.............thanks

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:07 backnback

2:08

Valeria Bednarik:

Seems a bit too much my friend; however, I do believe that is quite a strong support level, and despite we could beat parity again, not sure if pair could beat that zone. Major long term support area.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:08 Valeria Bednarik

2:08

[Comment From hardstone1hardstone1: ]

i want to know about g/j

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:08 hardstone1

2:09

Valeria Bednarik:

As comment above, all yen crosses had a bullish perspective, with Japan looking to devaluate their currency. PAir is actually above 143.00, with immediate resistances at 143.40 and 143.90 area. Supports for next hours, are at 142.60 and 142.10

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:09 Valeria Bednarik

2:09

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

what is support for euro n resistance

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:09 Guest

2:10

Valeria Bednarik:

Euro is back around 1.3485; resistance lies at 1.3520 , 1.3555 and 1.3580/90 zone, while supports now are at 1.3440 and 1.3410 yesterday's low.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:10 Valeria Bednarik

2:10

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

what about gbp/usd?

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:10 macharia

2:11	Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:11

2:12

Valeria Bednarik:

Pair holds a bullish tone since early Europe CPI readings; holding around 1.5380 area quite a support/ressitance level, I see pair correcting slightly early gains; correction could reach 1.5330 support area, without harming the trend, thus seems unlikely after the data, and with cad apporaching to parity. An acceleration above 1.5390 likely leat the pair back to daily high and above to 1.5460 zone, next resistance to consider.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:12 Valeria Bednarik

2:13

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

EURJPY?

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:13 Guest

2:13	Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:13

2:15

Valeria Bednarik:

Same scenario as other yen crosses: pair has a bullish tone amid Japan devaluation stance: quoting now around 125.40, pair needs to overcome 125.60 zone to extend the rally to 126.10; i see supports at 125.00, and 124.40 for today

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:15 Valeria Bednarik

2:15

[Comment From leoleo: ]

hi valeria, when do you think canada has a highest chance of increasing their rate considering their strong economy?

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:15 leo

2:16

Valeria Bednarik:

Well, with the hawkish stance since today, seems pretty soon, thus as comment at the beginning, not sure if they will "dare" to move before US. that's of course, a personal apreciation.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:16 Valeria Bednarik

2:16

Valeria Bednarik:

Maybe June, July, I'm looking for rate hikes in the second half of this year really.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:16 Valeria Bednarik

2:16

[Comment From WimWim: ]

Any recommendations on the USD/CAD?

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:16 Wim

2:17	Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:17

2:17

Valeria Bednarik:

Pair is testing parity, should consolidate around here, or give a small bulllish corrective movment before another leg down; under parity, next supports are at 0.9960, 0.9920 and 0.9850 strong zone. To the upside now, resistances lie at 1.0030 and 1.0080

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:17 Valeria Bednarik

2:17

[Comment From ignoreignore: ]

Hi....do you anticipate a drop further down below 1.2900 eur/usd

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:17 ignore

2:19

Valeria Bednarik:

I can't see that at this point my friend; despite I do see the Euro weak, there is a hard road ahead before we reach that area. pair is back testing pre report low: take a look, if gives up likely to extend the fall

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:19 Valeria Bednarik

2:19

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

cad gaining strongly

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:19 macharia

2:19

[Comment From WimWim: ]

why does usd/cad goes down?

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:19 Wim

2:20

Valeria Bednarik:

Because Cad is strong as Macharia says.. hawkish tone in the policiy meeting, removing stimulus announcing a probable rate hike in a couple of month...

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:20 Valeria Bednarik

2:20

[Comment From leoleo: ]

hi valeria, at what level do you think USD/CAD will bottom tonight?

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:20 leo

2:20

Valeria Bednarik:

if rally extends, no much more than 0.9920/50 area.. tha'ts my last support for today.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:20 Valeria Bednarik

2:21

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

what does that mean val n what effect that statement hv in forex?

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:21 macharia

2:23

Valeria Bednarik:

i guess already answer that right? general effect is that we are seing both Aussie and Cad, commodity currencies, gaining strong against dollar, and that anticipates dollar falls in general. But see? majors are not moving all together: market is weighting each currency strength, and moving wisely on that. Cad is under parity

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:23 Valeria Bednarik

2:24

Valeria Bednarik:

on its own strength; yen is above 93.00, on its own weakness Euro is unable to rise, also own weakness, whole aussie holds above 0.9300

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:24 Valeria Bednarik

2:24

[Comment From jes_tovarjes_tovar: ]

could this affect to GBP/USD?

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:24 jes_tovar

2:25

Valeria Bednarik:

yes, with a slight effect will keep pound limited to the downside, as seems unable to rise. Correcting as comment above, 1.5330 should hold there, to have chances of further rises.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:25 Valeria Bednarik

2:25

[Comment From troytroy: ]

Where do you see GBPUSD heading from here.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:25 troy

2:25

[Comment From SanjaySanjay: ]

Hi Val,GBP seems to be heading towards 1,57 area if it closes above yesterday's close?

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:25 Sanjay

2:27

Valeria Bednarik:

I believe that pound will remain ranging in betwee 1.52/1.54 till elections first day of March. really, don't see the 1.57 posible before that. we really need to regain first 1.55 before talking of 1.57... and as comment above, correcting maybe to 1.5330

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:27 Valeria Bednarik

2:27

[Comment From cornelcornel: ]

can we go long on eur/usd now?

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:27 cornel

2:27

Valeria Bednarik:

You can do whatever you want.. but let me ask you why? do you have a trading technical indication? a signal? a sistem? what is telling you to buy?

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:27 Valeria Bednarik

2:28

[Comment From sandrasandra: ]

at what level do you think the pair will bottom tonight?

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:28 sandra

2:29

Valeria Bednarik:

I believe you talk about cad.. in between 0.9920/50 seems to be it for me, and technically talking.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:29 Valeria Bednarik

2:29

[Comment From FawadFawad: ]

hi, Val, do u c eur/usd to 1.4000 in this quarter. or u c it breaking the low of 3266

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:29 Fawad

2:29

[Comment From SanjaySanjay: ]

Hi Val,why do you see EUR bearish as charts will turn bullish for short term if it manages a close above yesterday's or 1,35 area.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:29 Sanjay

2:31

FXstreet.com:

Sorry we have Just 15 minutes left. If you have anything related Forex market, please do not hesitate to ask Valeria.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:31 FXstreet.com

2:31

Valeria Bednarik:

fawad, seems we are closer to break lower, than reaching that 1.40 area, and Sanjay, well good comment see? I call short term intraday, hourly charts, 4 hours chart, and at this point both look bearish to me. Hourly show indicators breaking lowe, giving sings to the downside, while 4 hours show strongly bearish SMA and price capped under it. that's my reading

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:31 Valeria Bednarik

2:31

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Hi. If Canada wont raise before U.S then usdcad should appreciate?

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:31 Guest

2:33

Valeria Bednarik:

Pair won't appreciate just because 1 factor. Don't forget there are a lot of factors weigthing in each an every pair.. Non of them is rising rates. Oil is rising; BOC is hawkish...just to mention some of the gactors weithghting there now

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:33 Valeria Bednarik

2:33

[Comment From nishanisha: ]

Will cad/usd go down,,,

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:33 nisha

2:34

Valeria Bednarik:

well we break under parity, reached 0.9970 area, and pair is now testing parity again, correcting slightly to the upside; maybe 1.0020/30 area, yet in general, pair remains bearish, yes

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:34 Valeria Bednarik

2:34

[Comment From ignoreignore: ]

what happens then when USA raises rates and euro is under 1.3000?

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:34 ignore

2:35

Valeria Bednarik:

i can't imagine which level pair will be, before the rate hike, or when this will take place, so seems advancing a bit to much in the history.. See what happened the past 2 weeks!

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:35 Valeria Bednarik

2:35

Valeria Bednarik:

euro zone made an agrement to bailout Greece, and everyone was optimistic, with euro gapping to the upside 100 pips in a Sunday opening, testing 1.3600.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:35 Valeria Bednarik

2:36

Valeria Bednarik:

Next week? US SEC sues for fraud Goldman Sachs, and pair gapped TO THE OTHER DIRECTION.. and moves under 1.3500...

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:36 Valeria Bednarik

2:37

Valeria Bednarik:

there are lots of things we, as traders, CAN'T FORECAST. We can only handle a couple of things: data, technical analysis, and over all OUR ACCOUNTS. Risk management, wise trading, either short or long one, but keep that in mind please.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:37 Valeria Bednarik

2:37

[Comment From rajibrajib: ]

dont u see any pullback towards 1.0400 level in midium term?coz last low of .9950 is not a bad support

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:37 rajib

2:38

Valeria Bednarik:

good comment my friend. yet stll I see a huge resistance around 1.0250.. weekly lows and highs so only above that area, I will start to consider pair could lose the bearish tone.. not before.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:38 Valeria Bednarik

2:39

Valeria Bednarik:

Sorry, I'm seing a lot of questions of trading positions. I can't suggest trades here, my friends.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:39 Valeria Bednarik

2:39

[Comment From rajibrajib: ]

EurGbp is forming a base near .8740 and even there is a big consolidation in the weekly chart also and upside breakout is mostly possible.then how can it be possible for GBPUSD to even touch 1.55?

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:39 rajib

2:41

Valeria Bednarik:

Good appreciation, yet remember, is also Euro behaviour weighting in the pair. Anyway I donLt see Pound reaching 1.55.. what I sai dis that only IF the pair, overcomes that area, we could start talking of 1.5700 ... not before

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:41 Valeria Bednarik

2:42

[Comment From SanjaySanjay: ]

Hi Val, there seems to be ichimoku cloud building over USD/JPY at 93,60 levels which should give 100 pip downside?agree?

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:42 Sanjay

2:44

Valeria Bednarik:

I believe you are looking at the 4 hours charts here. 93.70 has been a strong resistance area, yet if you llok at daily or weekly charts, you will see price above the cloud, adn remember this ndicator is ment to be in bigger time frames.. we are only under the cloud in the 4 hours charts, and that area is aresistance level, not an entry point or an indicator signal

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:44 Valeria Bednarik

2:45

[Comment From MungoMungo: ]

CAD triple bottom on weekly, just a comment

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:45 Mungo

2:45

[Comment From rajibrajib: ]

Val, dont you think this pair (USDCAD) can again close the day above 1.0050?

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:45 rajib

2:46

Valeria Bednarik:

Tks Mungo for the appreciation! you are absolutely right. And seems unlikley Rajib.. let's see what Wall Street brings us now. but pair is bearish today.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:46 Valeria Bednarik

2:46

FXstreet.com:

Sorry we are short of time today, I have to wrap up the session.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:46 FXstreet.com

2:47

FXstreet.com:

Thank you Valeria for the great market view!... and every one who has joined the session today. I have had a great time with you.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:47 FXstreet.com

2:47

FXstreet.com:

Valerica, please give us a final word

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:47 FXstreet.com

2:47

Valeria Bednarik:

Ok all! tks for being here, as usual, I really enjoy this live coverages hope you also! Tks fxstreet.com also for giving us this space.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:47 Valeria Bednarik

2:48

Valeria Bednarik:

Remember what I told you: lot's of umpredictable things could happen..focus on what you can actually control! Have a great trading day!

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:48 Valeria Bednarik

2:48

[Comment From rajibrajib: ]

thanks Val for all your comments and help.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:48 rajib

2:49

FXstreet.com:

Alright evey one,, Thank you for coming today! I hope to see you all in the next live coverage. Have a nice trading day!
Bye for now!

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:49 FXstreet.com

2:49

FXstreet.com:

Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:49 FXstreet.com

2:49

FXstreet.com:

Tuesday April 20, 2010 2:49 FXstreet.com

2:49

Continue reading "BoC Interest Rate Decision Live coverage" »

Posted by FXstreet Team in Fundamental Analysis, Live Coverage, Market Viewpoint & Live Commentary, Trading Strategies & Ideas | Permalink | Comments (0)

04/14/2010

U.S. Retail Sales release live coverage

US Retail Sales Release Live Coverage with Valeria Bednarik

(04/14/2010)

1:10

FXstreet.com:

Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:10 FXstreet.com

1:10

FXstreet.com:

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:10 FXstreet.com

1:10

FXstreet.com:

Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's U.S. Retail Sales Release Live Coverage will start shortly. I am really pleased to introduce Valeria Bednarik who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. She will be giving us a direct picture fo the market status.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:10 FXstreet.com

1:11

FXstreet.com:

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:11 FXstreet.com

1:11

FXstreet.com:

She currently works as chief analyst for Fxstreet.com, and trough her own company, manages an important clients portfolio for Fxsolutions, also training new traders around the word.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:11 FXstreet.com

1:14

FXstreet.com:

Here you can the U.S retal sales chistory chart

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:14 FXstreet.com

1:16

FXstreet.com:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:16 FXstreet.com

1:19

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi everyone, and welcome to this live coverage! In a few minutes, some first line news are expected to be released, CPI inflation readings, and Retail Sales both in the US, with a slightly positive expectation for both. i would expect market to start moving after these two, so let's go for the most important levels to watch for each pair.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:19 Valeria Bednarik

1:19

Valeria Bednarik:

Sorry! a lot of delay and conection problems! seems we are ok now!

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:19 Valeria Bednarik

1:19

[Comment From AndyAndy: ]

Hi Valeria - do you foresee a lot of upside and downside movements based on the news today or more likelihood of markets moving in one direction in case of usdjpy

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:19 Andy

1:19

Valeria Bednarik:

Yes, Andy I do expect some interesting reactions, thus I believe will depend on the readings, so we need to wait and see a bit

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:19 Valeria Bednarik

1:20

[Comment From luckylucky: ]

what u think about gold where you see it after data

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:20 lucky

1:21

Valeria Bednarik:

Gold upside momentun continues, after breaking the daily channel to the upside. We have seen some downside corrective movement yesterday,

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:21 Valeria Bednarik

1:21	Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:21

1:22

Valeria Bednarik:

as i do believe, that there are not many buyers close to 1200 at this point; traders are on hold waiting for the news. And that's not gold chart sorry.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:22 Valeria Bednarik

1:22

[Comment From treytrey: ]

what will happen? how will e euro react?

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:22 trey

1:22	Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:22

1:23

Valeria Bednarik:

Well for waht i see, pair is slightly bullish at this point, holding above the 1.3600 area, with a strong support in between 1.3550/60. If we manage to overcome 1.3640, I would expect an approach to the 1.3680/1.3700 area. Anyway, remember to give market 15 minutes to diggest the news, and ignore first spikes.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:23 Valeria Bednarik

1:23

[Comment From nejonejo: ]

Hi valeria.Could gbp/usd extend rally if brakes 1.5450 resistance?

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:23 nejo

1:23	Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:23

1:24

Valeria Bednarik:

Well Seems podible yes. Above that level, I do see next strong resistance area around 1.5520 zone, as long as pair remains above 1.5400 support.. anyway, I still see key support there at 1.3580, where we have the neck of the double floor clear in daily charts.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:24 Valeria Bednarik

1:24

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

will sterling break above 1.55 or even reach it? and what if not ? will it plunge to 1.48 again?

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:24 Guest

1:25

Valeria Bednarik:

I don't see the 1.48 level as a posibility right now. if you take a look at 4 hours charts, pair is capped to the dowsnide by 20 SMA with a strong bullish slope acting as dynamic support. The upside seems more likely thus data could mess things a bit right now.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:25 Valeria Bednarik

1:25

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

if data is positive so doller get strong vs euro

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:25 Guest

1:26

Valeria Bednarik:

If data is positive, way positive, there is a strong chance of a stocks bullish rally, that will trigger risk appetite, and send dollar and yen lower. Risk Sentiment has been ruling market all of this week and there are no signs of that changing today yet.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:26 Valeria Bednarik

1:26

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

what do you expect in usd/cad

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:26 macharia

1:27

Valeria Bednarik:

Cad as we have been comenting lately, is still bullish against dollar, so USD/CAD remains bearish for me, more as market is pricing in a rate hike coming in next BOC meeting.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:27 Valeria Bednarik

1:28

Valeria Bednarik:

support is at 0.9970 ahead of 0.9920, while above 1.0030 pair could extend an upside corrective movement to 1.0080 zone, thus i still see the pair bearish.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:28 Valeria Bednarik

1:28

[Comment From AndreAndre: ]

What is your view on the EUR/USD reg,. the GAP filling...is it a must to fill this.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:28 Andre

1:29	Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:29

1:29

Valeria Bednarik:

Good question Andre.. gaps are never A MUST.. if you take a look at daily charts of GBP/USD you will find a couple of sunday gaps... first one around 2.06 and another around 1.84. Eventually, gaps could be fill, but if they don't get fill in the first 3/4 hours trading chances dilute and we can't be sure of when will take place. Could take 1 day or 1 year..

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:29 Valeria Bednarik

1:29

[Comment From seansean: ]

how do you see the gbp/euro going? lower or higher?

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:29 sean

1:30

Valeria Bednarik:

I have a more bearish bias in that pair,. Seems data is here let's check!

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:30 Valeria Bednarik

1:30

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Hi Valeria, do you think eurjpy will be in the downside?

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:30 Guest

1:31

Valeria Bednarik:

Not really, i'm expecting the pair to test the 128 high quite soon. Yen is in a bearish trend, so I do expect all yen crosses to regain the bullish tend

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:31 Valeria Bednarik

1:32

Valeria Bednarik:

Data is showing a huge improvement in Retail sales, above expectations

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:32 Valeria Bednarik

1:33

Valeria Bednarik:

Wall Street futures are running higher, and so do yen crosses. European majors on contrary, are losing ground quickly

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:33 Valeria Bednarik

1:33

FXstreet.com:

Consumer Price Index (MoM)
0.1%

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:33 FXstreet.com

1:33

Valeria Bednarik:

Euro heading to 1.3550/60 level, while pound holds above 1.5430 zone. Inflation reading are slightly negative

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:33 Valeria Bednarik

1:33

[Comment From paulpaul: ]

which is the best currency to trade after data and what should your view if data good for usa

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:33 paul

1:35

Valeria Bednarik:

I do believe that at this point probably usd/jpy will be more reliable. Pair is heading to 94.00/10. If managed to move above, likely to extend rally to 94.40/60 area... as long as above 93.60, anyway give the market 15 minutes to diggest the news. We have been with the news 3 minutes, and as I told you, we should ignore this first spikes.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:35 Valeria Bednarik

1:35

[Comment From meamea: ]

what do think of eurusd, will the upside prevail

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:35 mea

1:36	Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:36

1:36

Valeria Bednarik:

Despite the new "save Greece" plan presented by EU, i'm not really convinced Euro will be ready to regain the upside strongly; currency has remained subdue compared to other rivals as investors lose there optimism as days' go by.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:36 Valeria Bednarik

1:37

Valeria Bednarik:

Pair has a really strong support aroun 1.3550/60 as you can see in the chart. As long as above that level, is a chance. If we lose that area, then i can see further downside pressure in the pair. Thus we remain still inside daily range, and we have not yet a clear intraday trend definition

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:37 Valeria Bednarik

1:37

[Comment From tttt: ]

do you think retail sales are the most important this week or the results of us companies ort Bernanke speach will more impact nore

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:37 tt

1:38

Valeria Bednarik:

I do believe that this is more interesting, but stocks could add a little fuel to market. Winning reports yesterday exacerbated Wall Street, and is posible to see it happening again.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:38 Valeria Bednarik

1:38

[Comment From AndyAndy: ]

what is the next resistance and support for usdjpy

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:38 Andy

1:38	Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:38

1:38

Valeria Bednarik:

94.10 94.40 94.80 and 93.30 93.00 and 92.80 area

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:38 Valeria Bednarik

1:38

[Comment From lenalena: ]

how far do you see USDCAD to fall?

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:38 lena

1:39

Valeria Bednarik:

At this point as mentioned, if we lose 0.9970, I can see 0.9920 and 0.9850 as next strong support areas; i cant see it now under that 0.9850.. but don't forget BOC and the chance of a rate hike next meeting.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:39 Valeria Bednarik

1:39	Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:39

1:40

[Comment From KeenKeen: ]

how about eur/jpy?

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:40 Keen

1:41

Valeria Bednarik:

As comment above, yen is weak.. so chances on the pair remain to the upside, as we are quite close to the important 128.00 level, and indicators show a storng bullish bias. Support comes at 127.00 and 126.60 for next hours, while 127.90 mast month high is key resistance are to watch: above that level midterm trend will be set as bullish, and pair could attempt to rise to the 130.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:41 Valeria Bednarik

1:41

[Comment From AbdouuAbdouu: ]

what should we see or what confirms an upward trend in EUR and GBP against USD ?

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:41 Abdouu

1:41	Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:41

1:42

Valeria Bednarik:

Short term talking intraday, I do believe that euro above 1.3640 and pound above 1.5480 will do the job. Long term talking, euro is far from 1.3800 and Pound no so far from key 1.5750 zone.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:42 Valeria Bednarik

1:42

[Comment From sunnysunny: ]

what do you see in aus/usd?

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:42 sunny

1:44

Valeria Bednarik:

Trend there is quite strong, bullish one, and what i see is that still investors take every dip in the pair as a change to buy it. We are above .9330, and next resistance comes at 0.9350. if above, pair could extend rally to 0.9380/0.9400 area

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:44 Valeria Bednarik

1:44

[Comment From vikasvikas: ]

what will be gold now?

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:44 vikas

1:45

Valeria Bednarik:

Gold is close to first resistance area around 1163. We need to move above that area, to see metal extending to 1182 zone

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:45 Valeria Bednarik

1:45

[Comment From AndreAndre: ]

I agree reg. EU/USD and we need to watch out for the sup. at 1.3568

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:45 Andre

1:45

[Comment From EzzyEzzy: ]

Hey Val, after the news, where you think gu is headed?

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:45 Ezzy

1:45	Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:45

1:46

Valeria Bednarik:

As comment, first spike favoring dolar should have been ignored. Now majors are heading higher with pound at daily high and attempting to extend the upside to the 1.5480 area comment above. Euro is still under 1.3640, let's wait a bit more there.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:46 Valeria Bednarik

1:46

[Comment From SebSeb: ]

Do you see USD/CAD extending below 0.9960 today? Or is it more likely to move back above 1.0000?

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:46 Seb

1:47	Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:47

1:48

Valeria Bednarik:

we have been almost all day long consolidating under 1 so it turns to be a quite strong resistance now for the pair. maybe a spike could take the pair to 1.0000/30 but I do expecet further falls in there for the comng sessions.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:48 Valeria Bednarik

1:48

[Comment From nvnreddynvnreddy: ]

wat abt usd/chf support levels

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:48 nvnreddy

1:49

Valeria Bednarik:

I see that the pair is under 1.0550,strong weekly support zone, and heading lower. next supports from here come at 1.0510 and 1.0480. Seems unlikley to see the pair regaining the 1.0600 area anytime soon

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:49 Valeria Bednarik

1:49

[Comment From KaranKaran: ]

Hi Val, do you see GBP/USD testing 1.48s short term?

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:49 Karan

1:49

Valeria Bednarik:

Not really at this point

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:49 Valeria Bednarik

1:49

[Comment From KeenKeen: ]

why usd/jpy moving down steady?

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:49 Keen

1:50

Valeria Bednarik:

pair is following stocks US Futures are falling, and as usual pair is just coping Dj and S&P

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:50 Valeria Bednarik

1:50

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

why is 1.3640 an important level to look for?

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:50 Guest

1:51

Valeria Bednarik:

we have a food number of highs and lows there and for me is a resistnace level. where pair halted several times in the past every time ot reached.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:51 Valeria Bednarik

1:52

Valeria Bednarik:

Anyway, dollar is quicky losing ground across the board, after firming up first couple of minutes

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:52 Valeria Bednarik

1:52

[Comment From EzzyEzzy: ]

Val..... seeing as the gu uptrend maybe a correction, according to your charts, where do you see gu heading towards until the correction is over and the downtrend resumes... thanks for your advice in advance.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:52 Ezzy

1:54

Valeria Bednarik:

As comment above, take a look at the daily chart: we have a doulbe foor in there with the neck around 1.5380. Pair is above that level, suggesting an upside continuation yet unable to regain 1.5500 yet. If above that level, figure should finally develop. under 1.5380 I see quite a strong support, daily highs and lows, around 1.5330. so only under this last, pair can turn bearish again for me.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:54 Valeria Bednarik

1:54

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

thanks for your comment

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:54 Guest

1:54

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

How about GBP/JPY?

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:54 Guest

1:56

Valeria Bednarik:

Well pair reached today again the 144.70 area, and retreat from it as we have a strong midterm top around there. Still holding above 144.00, I do see the pair generally bullish according to indicators. Downside corrective movements could extend to 143.60, while above the mentioned max, next resistnaces come at 145.30 and 146.00

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:56 Valeria Bednarik

1:56

[Comment From EmmanuelEmmanuel: ]

cld yu pls explain why gbpusd is recording an upward movement despite a news that favours usd. is it only a temporary movement?

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:56 Emmanuel

1:58

Valeria Bednarik:

As comment at the begining of this live coverage, is risk sentiment ruling market this week, so a strong first spike in wall street futures, triggered a bullish rally both in pound and euro. Seems now we are settling down a bit before market decides next move.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:58 Valeria Bednarik

1:58

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

EURCHF? going up?

Wednesday April 14, 2010 1:58 Guest

2:00

Valeria Bednarik:

well due to Euro weakness, pair reached extreme lows when hitting 1.4150 area, a couple of weeks ago, and SNB interviene the pair to push it higher. if you take a look at charts, we are just consolidaitng there, and unless we regain 1.4400 area, with a daily close above, traders are not yet ready to leave the bearish stance in there.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:00 Valeria Bednarik

2:00

[Comment From AbdouuAbdouu: ]

Val. if all risky assets i mean commodities , currencies equities did sustain the new highs and sustain the breaking of the downtrend channel could this signal a new rally as the previous march rally? and if it's not a rally ? what is the upside limit?

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:00 Abdouu

2:00

Valeria Bednarik:

fro what do you mean? a cross? a metal? please explain. tks!

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:00 Valeria Bednarik

2:01

[Comment From EzzyEzzy: ]

Thank you Val

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:01 Ezzy

2:01

[Comment From AndyAndy: ]

now that the news is over, do you see usdjpy dropping further from 9340 levels

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:01 Andy

2:01

FXstreet.com:

We have just 10 minutes left, Please do not hesitate to ask Valeria if you have any questions regarding to the FX trading!

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:01 FXstreet.com

2:02

Valeria Bednarik:

in fact pair currently losing that area, heading to 93.00/10. I do believe that key support lies at 98.20, where we have a 38.2% retracement of last daily bullish rally. Despite attempts to break lower, pair is still closing daily above it, and after Japan call for more easing to devaluate their currency, I do see the downside still limited

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:02 Valeria Bednarik

2:02

[Comment From MuriloMurilo: ]

Hi Val, do you believe that USD/CAD can reach 0.9997 and continue downwards with the trend towards 0.9960 or maybe lower/

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:02 Murilo

2:03

Valeria Bednarik:

Yes i do, as comment above now 1 to 1, paritiy, has turned into a mayor resistance area. Euro tested 1.3640 one time already and retreated a bit. Could test it twice, before deciding to break higher.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:03 Valeria Bednarik

2:04

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

If retail sales # is so strong, why are we not seeing a down on the GBPUSD and an up on the USDJPY

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:04 Guest

2:04	Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:04

2:05

Valeria Bednarik:

As explained before, risk sentiment is triggering exactly the contrarian reaction : good news mean investors are optimistic, and they "dare" to buy riskier assets, such as pound, or euro

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:05 Valeria Bednarik

2:05

[Comment From tttt: ]

what shd be this week close of eur usd and cable which could give signal that short term bulish trend is intact still

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:05 tt

2:06

Valeria Bednarik:

That's a good question, and the answer is yes! as comment above, I would really love to see Euro above 1.3800 to call for a trend change, and we are way under that level.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:06 Valeria Bednarik

2:06

[Comment From glen from Indonesiaglen from Indonesia: ]

Hi Val, What kind commodities can influence/movement Kiwi?

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:06 glen from Indonesia

2:07

Valeria Bednarik:

Gold. first of all gold. Kiwi is very related to aud movments, and Australia is the 3rd world gold producer... so if you trade NZD, keep always an eye on gold.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:07 Valeria Bednarik

2:07

[Comment From MuriloMurilo: ]

Hi Val, do you believe that USd/CAD will continue downtrend and this is just a retracement towards 1.00? tks.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:07 Murilo

2:07	Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:07

2:08

Valeria Bednarik:

yes Murilo, I think so. Pair remains bearish in daily charts, 4 hours chart, with no signs of exhaustion yet, or even a stronger upside corrective movement.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:08 Valeria Bednarik

2:09

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

hi,eurjpy same boat as gbpjpy ?bullish for the mom would u think?

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:09 Guest

2:10

Valeria Bednarik:

Yes, in general i see the yen crosses bullish despite current movements to the downside. Both, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY reached important highs zone today, so we are seen some minor downside corrections.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:10 Valeria Bednarik

2:10

FXstreet.com:

Sorry we are short of time today, I have to wrap up the session.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:10 FXstreet.com

2:10

FXstreet.com:

Thank you Valeria for the great market view!... and every one who has joined the session today.I have had a great time with you.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:10 FXstreet.com

2:10

FXstreet.com:

valerica, please give us a final word

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:10 FXstreet.com

2:11

Valeria Bednarik:

As always, have been a pleasure to be here with you all! Hope you really enjoyed it as much as I' Remember, to watch the levles mentioned, and alway protect your trades, Stop loses are there for a reason and money management is key for success in FX markets!

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:11 Valeria Bednarik

2:11

Valeria Bednarik:

See you all back soon! Bye for now

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:11 Valeria Bednarik

2:12

[Comment From HusainHusain: ]

thanks

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:12 Husain

2:12

FXstreet.com:

Alright evey one,, Thank you for coming today! I hope to see you all in the next live coverage. Have a nice trading day!
Bye for now!

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:12 FXstreet.com

2:12

FXstreet.com:

Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:12 FXstreet.com

2:13

FXstreet.com:

Wednesday April 14, 2010 2:13 FXstreet.com

2:13

Posted by FXstreet Team in Fundamental Analysis, Live Coverage, Market Viewpoint & Live Commentary, Trading Strategies & Ideas | Permalink | Comments (0)

04/08/2010

BoE and ECB Live Coverage

BoE and ECB Live Coverage with Valeria Bednarik

(04/08/2010)

11:48

FXstreet.com:

Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Thursday April 8, 2010 11:48 FXstreet.com

11:48

FXstreet.com:

Thursday April 8, 2010 11:48 FXstreet.com

11:49

FXstreet.com:

Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's BoE and ECB Interest Rates Decisions Live Coverage will start shortly. I am really pleased to introduce Valeria Bednarik who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. She will be giving us a direct picture fo the market status.

Thursday April 8, 2010 11:49 FXstreet.com

11:49

FXstreet.com:

Thursday April 8, 2010 11:49 FXstreet.com

11:50

FXstreet.com:

She currently works as chief analyst for Fxstreet.com, and trough her own company, manages an important clients portfolio for Fxsolutions, also training new traders around the word.

Thursday April 8, 2010 11:50 FXstreet.com

11:51

FXstreet.com:

Hello Valeria, What do you expect today's banks interest rates decisions?

Thursday April 8, 2010 11:51 FXstreet.com

11:51

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi everyone, and welcome to this live coverage! as always, my pleasure to be here with you today! As you all may know, rates are expected unchanged at this point, and announcements will be far from shocking.

Thursday April 8, 2010 11:51 Valeria Bednarik

11:52

Valeria Bednarik:

what probably will be more interesting as usual, is to focus in later ECB's President TRichet speech

Thursday April 8, 2010 11:52 Valeria Bednarik

11:53

Valeria Bednarik:

and regarding BOE, any comment regarding QE, don't forget in this year budget, they included a couple of billon Pounds, just in case

Thursday April 8, 2010 11:53 Valeria Bednarik

11:53

[Comment From TarunTarun: ]

Hi Valeria !! Hope you doing great !! So you still a bear on euro/usd ?

Thursday April 8, 2010 11:53 Tarun

11:54

Thursday April 8, 2010 11:54

11:54

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi Tarun, and welcome. As you may see on may daily comments, yes I do believe that Euro likely to keep on falling: take a look at daily, or 4 hours charts

Thursday April 8, 2010 11:54 Valeria Bednarik

11:54

Valeria Bednarik:

Pair has been in a strong downtrend, since past December, and till now, bullish movements have been barely corrective. We are now very close to the year low,

Thursday April 8, 2010 11:54 Valeria Bednarik

11:55

Valeria Bednarik:

and bottom line is, we have no reasons, technical or fundamental, to consider euro already bottomed.

Thursday April 8, 2010 11:55 Valeria Bednarik

11:56

Valeria Bednarik:

if we lose 1.3265, I would expect a rally to 1.3220/30 area while reversal short term intraday talking, will only be likely if we overcome the 1.3380 area

Thursday April 8, 2010 11:56 Valeria Bednarik

11:56

[Comment From glen from Indonesiaglen from Indonesia: ]

No shock for QE?

Thursday April 8, 2010 11:56 glen from Indonesia

11:57

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi glen, well as you may read, rates are no shocking as they are expected unchanged. However, QE no doubts could shock markets

Thursday April 8, 2010 11:57 Valeria Bednarik

11:57

[Comment From TarunTarun: ]

how about usd/yen ?

Thursday April 8, 2010 11:57 Tarun

11:57

Thursday April 8, 2010 11:57

11:57

Valeria Bednarik:

As you can see on this 4 hours charts, pair has reached exactly the 38.2% retracement of the last bullish daily rally

Thursday April 8, 2010 11:57 Valeria Bednarik

11:59

Valeria Bednarik:

If under daily low, pair could extend the fall thus midterm view remains sligthly bullish. Intraday, if we lose that 92.80, pair could approach to next supports, around 92.30 and 91.70 area, more if Wall Street slump as yesterday. A rebound will find resistances at 93.50 and 94.00

Thursday April 8, 2010 11:59 Valeria Bednarik

11:59

[Comment From daviddavid: ]

Hi Val..If the BOE interest rate and asset purchase target remain unchanged as we all expected, would we see a bearish response for the cable?

Thursday April 8, 2010 11:59 david

12:00

Valeria Bednarik:

Data is ready Pound under 1.5330, remains in a consolidate stage

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:00 Valeria Bednarik

12:01

Valeria Bednarik:

we could see spikes to that area, yet only a clear break above could signal some continuation

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:01 Valeria Bednarik

12:01

Valeria Bednarik:

NO change in rates

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:01 Valeria Bednarik

12:02

Valeria Bednarik:

Pound spike to the upsde, aiming for 1.5230 area, yet no much reaction yet.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:02 Valeria Bednarik

12:02

FXstreet.com:

The BoE leaves unchanged its interest rate at 0.5% and its Q.E at 200B

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:02 FXstreet.com

12:02

Valeria Bednarik:

Pound has been trapped in range in between 1.5130 support and now, 1.5260 area, with no aims of breaking. Reaction till now has been very limited.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:02 Valeria Bednarik

12:03

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

hi val..welcome back

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:03 macharia

12:03

[Comment From SebSeb: ]

Good Day Valeria, what would you expect for EUR/GBP today?

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:03 Seb

12:04

Valeria Bednarik:

As in general for all Euro crosses, trend is bearish also there. I see pair moving in a big daily traingle with the base today around 0.8760. If Euro sell off continues after ECB, that's the area pair could test later today.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:04 Valeria Bednarik

12:04

[Comment From k.kk.k: ]

what do you mean by QE

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:04 k.k

12:05

Valeria Bednarik:

Quantitative easing, meaning, capital injectiosn, bonds purchase, or any other activity to inject money in the markets

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:05 Valeria Bednarik

12:05

[Comment From pepapepa: ]

hi, where is a good resistance for GBP/USD

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:05 pepa

12:05

Valeria Bednarik:

1.5250/60 area comes first intraday one.. stronger one at 1.5330 mid term talking

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:05 Valeria Bednarik

12:06

[Comment From GGGG: ]

A funda question: Is Greece in terms of amount debt (billions of Euro) that big to take a currency like Euro down almost 20 % and counting in just one quarter ? Or is the anticipation of more EU nations lining up for bailouts ?

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:06 GG

12:07

Valeria Bednarik:

Good question! part of it is the anticipation of more nations lining for bailouts as you say, but I believe the worst in here, comes from the fact that the EU take too long to come with a solution, and not a good one, mining investors confidence in the currency.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:07 Valeria Bednarik

12:07

[Comment From TarunTarun: ]

sorry asking you about usd/yen as it is apart from ECB and BOE !! So if there is no change in QE can we expect a bull run in cable ?

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:07 Tarun

12:08

FXstreet.com:

From the FXstreet.com news editors desk: BOE keeps rates at 0.5%

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:08 FXstreet.com

12:08

Valeria Bednarik:

As comment you all many times, I dont see at this point, any real reason for European currencies to run higher against dollar, from the funda,mental point of view, or the technical. And Pound, with elections around the corner,

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:08 Valeria Bednarik

12:09

Valeria Bednarik:

will probably remain limited, and won't be breaking nor too high nor too low these days.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:09 Valeria Bednarik

12:09

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

what r ua views on gbp/usd

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:09 macharia

12:10

Valeria Bednarik:

There is kind of a triple floor in the hourly chart, around 1.5130. limiting the downside. and a strong resistance area around 1.5280/1.5300 with pair trapped in the midle and a lack of definitions. We need to break those levels to see a more clear trend developing

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:10 Valeria Bednarik

12:10

[Comment From yasiryasir: ]

good afternoon valeria

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:10 yasir

12:10

[Comment From vikvik: ]

gold??

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:10 vik

12:12

Valeria Bednarik:

Gold has a bullish perspective after breaking the daily descendant channel to the upside when vercome 1125 area past Friday I believe. quoting just above a strong support area, around 1142, I see some consolidation developing. next support comes at 1136 while immediate and strongest resistance comes at yesterday's high around 1152.Above that area, gold should extend the rally and approach to 1180

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:12 Valeria Bednarik

12:12

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

hi what about eur gbp level

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:12 Guest

12:13

Valeria Bednarik:

As comment above, pair is bearish due to euro weakness; moving inside a weekly triangle with base around 0.8670 that's the level to watch to the downside.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:13 Valeria Bednarik

12:13

[Comment From greggreg: ]

hi Val ! your opion about USDCAD?

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:13 greg

12:14

Valeria Bednarik:

Good question! pair reached as expected the 0.9970 area, and started developing an upside corrective pattern at least in the daily chart.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:14 Valeria Bednarik

12:15

Valeria Bednarik:

However, could be just corrective. I believe first level to consider come at 1.0145 area. If we overcome that area, i believe the pair could extend the rally higher. If not, movement could be consider corrective, and I would expect further falls, yet

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:15 Valeria Bednarik

12:15

Valeria Bednarik:

I don't see the pair breaking under 0.9850

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:15 Valeria Bednarik

12:15

[Comment From yasiryasir: ]

so now what u think gbp/usd pls

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:15 yasir

12:16

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:16

12:16

Valeria Bednarik:

Pound is unchanged from pre report levels. There you can see the 4 hours chart:

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:16 Valeria Bednarik

12:17

Valeria Bednarik:

flat indicators, flat moving averages and consolidating at the mentioend area. 1.5120/1.5280

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:17 Valeria Bednarik

12:18

Valeria Bednarik:

really, we have a doji in the hourly candle showing how limited movement has been.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:18 Valeria Bednarik

12:18

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

what are the important news today how that news will react in forex

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:18 Guest

12:18

Valeria Bednarik:

I do believe that market won't show much of a reaction, until TRichet speech along with US unemployment weekly data.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:18 Valeria Bednarik

12:19

Valeria Bednarik:

That's the only first line data that could move the markets, and I do think that stocks reaction will be leading dollar and so the rest of the pairs.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:19 Valeria Bednarik

12:19

[Comment From dineshdinesh: ]

wat will happen to eur/usd

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:19 dinesh

12:20

Valeria Bednarik:

I'm seeing a short term resistance around 1.3340/50 area, ahead of 1.3385, so pair could reach that area, as hourly charts look slightly bullish at this point.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:20 Valeria Bednarik

12:21

Valeria Bednarik:

however, I don't see pair regaining the 1.3410 area, at least at this point: as comment above Euro weakness is clear across the board

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:21 Valeria Bednarik

12:22

[Comment From daviddavid: ]

Ok..It seems that the market doesn't react to the news release.but as you said time and time again..wait for 30 minutes for market to settle and digest the news..

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:22 david

12:22

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi David, yes. I believe market is waiting for Trichet and unemployment

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:22 Valeria Bednarik

12:22

[Comment From CraigCraig: ]

I see a big sell off for E/J since Mon. Are we at the bottom of the retracement, or there is still going to be more bearish move?

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:22 Craig

12:23

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:23

12:23

Valeria Bednarik:

take a look at this chart: Pair is playing around the 61,8% retracement of the last daily bullish rally.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:23 Valeria Bednarik

12:24

Valeria Bednarik:

halting at the 200 SMA for now, so if we lose that level, I would expect further downside pressure today, 123.40 area, heading to 122.80 as you can see also, current candle is being capped by the retracement around 123.80, while next strong resistance area comeas at 124.40

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:24 Valeria Bednarik

12:25

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:25

12:25

Valeria Bednarik:

Taht's the EUR/GBP triangle I was talking about earlier today.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:25 Valeria Bednarik

12:25

[Comment From markmark: ]

hi,do u think it is time now to go long on USD/JPY,or wait a little?

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:25 mark

12:26

Valeria Bednarik:

I would rather wait a little, at least after TRichet speech and US opening. As comment above, if Wall Street extends yesterdays' fall. I see some chances of a downside extension.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:26 Valeria Bednarik

12:27

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

when do u think euro may come to around 1.4000 area n how low do u c it before going to 4000 area

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:27 Guest

12:28

Valeria Bednarik:

At this point, I don't see any chances of euro reaching previous strong resistance area, 1.3800, where we have the 61.8% retracement of past 2009 march november bullish rally. As far As i can see now, there is little chance for pair coming above 1.36 this month, and that's the far I can see.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:28 Valeria Bednarik

12:28

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

which way do you think the market will go with the eu rate decision coming up??

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:28 Guest

12:29

Valeria Bednarik:

I'ma technical analyst.. not a fortune teller. That will be closer to betting than trading, is not me. that's why I'm sharing with you the levles to follow: break higher will mena bullish break lower will mean bearish

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:29 Valeria Bednarik

12:30

[Comment From IPLIPL: ]

if china agrees to revalue the yuan then what will happen yen, euro, gbp thanks

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:30 IPL

12:30

Valeria Bednarik:

GOOD QUESTION!

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:30 Valeria Bednarik

12:30

Valeria Bednarik:

I do believe that will favor mostly dollar and yen. Don't forget yuan is quite attached to greenback, and less but strogner anyway to yen.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:30 Valeria Bednarik

12:31

[Comment From GGGG: ]

Sorry to be off tanget, but how about USDCAD? I know the whole world has orders around parity, but would the medium term direction of it not really dictated by the North America equity markets and/or Oil rather tha CAD fundamental ?

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:31 GG

12:31

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:31

12:32

Valeria Bednarik:

As comment above, pair is strongly bearish and current movement could be consider barely corrective.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:32 Valeria Bednarik

12:33

Valeria Bednarik:

First strong resistance comes at the 1.0145 area, and above 1.0190 ahead of stronger mid term one 1.0250. I still see chances of a fall to 0.9850 area, thus not much more than that. And oil prices based on 80, will keep on favoring cad winnings.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:33 Valeria Bednarik

12:33

Valeria Bednarik:

There is the gold chart, and the break above past Monday sorry, not Friday as said before

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:33 Valeria Bednarik

12:33

[Comment From Ai from IndonesiaAi from Indonesia: ]

what are you views on usd/chf? thx

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:33 Ai from Indonesia

12:35

Valeria Bednarik:

I see the pair slightly bullish as long as above 1.0740 intraday talking. The SNB has been quite clear with past Thursday intervention movement, and I believe that should discourage at least a bit, swissy bulls. Resistances from here come at 1.0800 and 1.0840 while under 1.0740 pair could test 1.0680/1.0700 support area

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:35 Valeria Bednarik

12:35

[Comment From GGGG: ]

Isn't Golds recent strength more of a function of Yen & Euro weakness than the inflation and/or USD ? Your take ?

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:35 GG

12:35

Valeria Bednarik:

Again a great question. Yes investors are looking for a safe haven and nothing betteer than gold..

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:35 Valeria Bednarik

12:36

[Comment From dineshdinesh: ]

eur/usd pls

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:36 dinesh

12:36

[Comment From SeánSeán: ]

Are we going to see a new low in the euro/dollar today?

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:36 Seán

12:36

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:36

12:36

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:36

12:38

Valeria Bednarik:

I do think so. Pair is again under pressure, and lheading to 1.3265 area, yearly low. Under that, we could see an interesting and quick sell off to 1.3220 zone I do believe.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:38 Valeria Bednarik

12:38

[Comment From RayRay: ]

What do you think will result after Bernake's announcement in 22mins

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:38 Ray

12:38

Valeria Bednarik:

I believe you mean Trichet?

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:38 Valeria Bednarik

12:39

Valeria Bednarik:

unless he changes rates , which I dont see, market could spike either up or down, but won't be able to change current bearish perspective for eur/usd

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:39 Valeria Bednarik

12:40

[Comment From GGGG: ]

Since all indicators including price actions is flat for GBP, in such case if you were to technically setup orders - what is the best tactical choice ? A straddle perhaps ? or just wait for a breakout in either directions ?

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:40 GG

12:40

Valeria Bednarik:

I do believe that trading has a lot of personal decisions. Mine will be wait for a break. if the pair don't break, I have 20 other pairs to trade today..

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:40 Valeria Bednarik

12:41

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Hi Val, we have Euro interest coming out shortly, what u think will happen n how can it affect on eur/usd n eur/gbp?

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:41 Guest

12:41

Valeria Bednarik:

as said above, unless Trichet decide to shock markets, we are going to see some spikes that won't be able to change intraday trend.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:41 Valeria Bednarik

12:41

[Comment From PatrickPatrick: ]

Hi Valeria, an off-topic question; If China allow its currency to appreciate, what are the implications if any for the Dollar versus other currencies (risk perceptions, etc?) ... or for the price of oil ...

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:41 Patrick

12:42

Valeria Bednarik:

I think that will end favoring greenback and yen as comment above. Both currencies are higlhy attached to the yuan, and sentiment will end favoring them

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:42 Valeria Bednarik

12:43

[Comment From ArvindArvind: ]

Is GBP bound to go low now?

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:43 Arvind

12:43

Valeria Bednarik:

pound is heading to intraday 1.5185 support. under that, next one comes at 1.5130 lows area, where we have the triple floor in the hourly. Only above 1.5250 I would expect pound to regain the upside, and it's not aiming to

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:43 Valeria Bednarik

12:44

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

do u see any posibility of pound/usd hiting 1.5050 area either 2day or 2morow?

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:44 macharia

12:44

[Comment From GGGG: ]

On GBP, all common indicators - Stoc, MA, etc. all point flat (no bias) on lower time frame (M30, H1, H4) , except for Daily which shows over bought on RSI & Stoc. That said, would the directional bias be still down ? Your take ?

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:44 GG

12:45

FXstreet.com:

The ECB leaves rates unchanged too

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:45 FXstreet.com

12:46

Valeria Bednarik:

oversol in the daily is what i see. However, I found pound and RSI not being the best convination. I rather change that RSI to a CCI of 200 periods... at least for me. pound don't "respect" to much RSI. what pound do respect a lot is 20 SMA: daily one remains bearish and above current price. So big picture for me says that we could see some upside corrective movements, yet limited for now. We have a strong doble bottom there, with neck around 1.5380.. above that area, maybe pound will aim to rise

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:46 Valeria Bednarik

12:46

[Comment From SebSeb: ]

At what time is Trichet's speech expected? You expect the US Jobless Claims results to move the market much today?

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:46 Seb

12:48

Valeria Bednarik:

trichet in about 40 minutes I believe along with weekly unemployment rate; and i do believe is the only fundamental new to take care of, but unless a quite shocking reading far from expectations, trend will remain intact

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:48 Valeria Bednarik

12:48

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

what your view about aud

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:48 Guest

12:48

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:48

12:50

Valeria Bednarik:

There is the euro 15 minutes chart.. as you can see pair remains bearish after the data, and almost unchanged and no reacted.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:50 Valeria Bednarik

12:52

Valeria Bednarik:

REgarding Australian dollar, rates have been rised again this week, to 4.25%, and with gold rises also, i do still see that as the strongest currency across the board. current movements are a correction, while KEY resistance area lies at 0.9330 zone. where we have lots of weekly highs. immediate ones, come at 0.9275 and 0.9300, while supports are now at 0.9220 and 0.9170. Could test this last withoul losing bullish trend.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:52 Valeria Bednarik

12:52

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

and do u see usd/cad reaching 1.0200 level before another fall?

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:52 macharia

12:52

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:52

12:53

Valeria Bednarik:

there us daily chart in CAD.. as you can see, we are not even close to the 1.0145 area mentioend earlier. Only above that level, pair could attempt to reach 1.0200, yet trully, I cant' see it now.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:53 Valeria Bednarik

12:53

[Comment From VarunVarun: ]

So is Gold still on the Bull-run?

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:53 Varun

12:54

Valeria Bednarik:

I do see so yes,

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:54 Valeria Bednarik

12:54

[Comment From srinisrini: ]

hi val, wat about eur and pound .

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:54 srini

12:55

Valeria Bednarik:

Take a look above please, we have already discuss them a lot

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:55 Valeria Bednarik

12:55

[Comment From AndreAndre: ]

Dear Val, I suggest your guests to scroll up and down the live session so far, in order to get their answers, as you are replying to the same question several times. This is just a helping hand.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:55 Andre

12:55

[Comment From Furqan_PakistaniFurqan_Pakistani: ]

Can be short Euro/GBP or not?

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:55 Furqan_Pakistani

12:55

Valeria Bednarik:

Tks Andre.

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:55 Valeria Bednarik

12:56

Valeria Bednarik:

Furqan, you can trade what ever you like, but please don't ask me to give signals or trading suggestions in here, as I'm not allowed. Take alook above you will find the chart, and the answer

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:56 Valeria Bednarik

12:56

[Comment From VarunVarun: ]

Do You think Trinchet's speech will have more impact than the Interest rate decision?

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:56 Varun

12:57

Valeria Bednarik:

a bit more yes, but will just be temporal, unless he decide to shock markets. Anyway at this point, I don't see Trichet announcing a rate hike next month, or something like that.. really

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:57 Valeria Bednarik

12:57

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

sometimes we see wall street (dow,nas,s&p) up and dollar down? why?

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:57 Guest

12:58

Valeria Bednarik:

Because a strong rise in stocks generates "optimism" about the global recovery, and we are all ready to invest in riskier assets, such as euro and pound, sending dollar higher. Is a common sentiment, risk appetite/aversion reaction, that has been ruling market for most of 2009

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:58 Valeria Bednarik

12:59

[Comment From RajRaj: ]

which indicator is better to trade forex..whether 20 sma or 50 sma or 200 sma

Thursday April 8, 2010 12:59 Raj

1:00

Valeria Bednarik:

I do believe that majors have differnet behaiour and reactiosn to differnent indicators, thus I love 20 SMA, and 200 EMA in most pairs. The question here is not the indicator you use, but how much you study the reaction of price, to that indicator

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:00 Valeria Bednarik

1:00

[Comment From hashemhashem: ]

what do you think about greec?

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:00 hashem

1:01

Valeria Bednarik:

Taht is a huge huge problem for Europe, but not the only one. Portugal Spain Italy are heading the same way of Greece, and that's undermining confidence in the euro. That's why the currency remains so weak since early this year

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:01 Valeria Bednarik

1:02

[Comment From elderfestelderfest: ]

where are the support of eur/jpy

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:02 elderfest

1:02

Valeria Bednarik:

take a look above above please already comment

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:02 Valeria Bednarik

1:02

[Comment From elderfestelderfest: ]

am short in eur/jpy what is there any suggestion?

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:02 elderfest

1:03

Valeria Bednarik:

well take a look at the chart. pair break under 61.8% retracement of last daily bullish rally, and is holding just above 200 SMA. under today's low, likely to approach to 122.60 area

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:03 Valeria Bednarik

1:03

[Comment From VarunVarun: ]

Do we see Fed increase interest this month or near future?

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:03 Varun

1:05

Valeria Bednarik:

They keep on stating that no, unless a strong recovery in employment situation. I won't expect any, till second half this year.

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:05 Valeria Bednarik

1:05	Thursday April 8, 2010 1:05

1:07

Valeria Bednarik:

That's WS chart... as you can see, we are at almost 2 years highs, with yesterday slump just a small downside movement compared to all this bullish rally. Consider it corrective for now, but likely to extend today, favoring more dollar winnings against european currencies

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:07 Valeria Bednarik

1:07

[Comment From GGGG: ]

Technical questions for all forex pairs: I heavily use Stochastics as I beleive on H1/H4 basis currency markets ranges more often than trend. However, would it be wise to use a directional filter such as ADX on Daily/H4 as afilter for Stochastics based signal in OB/OS zone ? Your take ?

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:07 GG

1:08

Valeria Bednarik:

Well, I always recommend to focus in two trading strategies: one for trend markets, based on MAS, Momentum, ADX or whatever indicator you like, EXCEPT stochastic: save that for sideways market as is a cyclic indicator, that when we have a strong trend, tends to saturate at the extremes and give a lot of fake signs.

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:08 Valeria Bednarik

1:08

[Comment From srinisrini: ]

whether there is any chance for eur and gbp bull...

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:08 srini

1:10

Valeria Bednarik:

Intraday talking could be some.. but really, at this point there is a few, unless unemployment came way better than expected, triggering a bullish rally stron one in stocks and fueling risk appetite.

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:10 Valeria Bednarik

1:10

[Comment From jjjj: ]

Hi Val, why no one saying any thing about the HUGE US debt ?

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:10 jj

1:10

Valeria Bednarik:

because it has been worst! and is here since 2005 at least.. nothing new under the sun there.. so market not paying attention

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:10 Valeria Bednarik

1:11

[Comment From glen from Indonesiaglen from Indonesia: ]

Yen outlook please, yen index strong, or carry trade has return?

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:11 glen from Indonesia

1:13

Valeria Bednarik:

As comment above, 92.80 is the 38.2% retracement of last daily bulish rally. if we lose that area, and stocks fall, more downside pressure to come in the pair, while only above 93.80/94.00 could recover bullish tone

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:13 Valeria Bednarik

1:14

FXstreet.com:

Ok Friends, time has come, Valeria, in the following 5 minutes, could you let us know your conclusions about today's interest rate decisions?

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:14 FXstreet.com

1:16

Valeria Bednarik:

As comment at the beginning, rates in Europe and UK had become less than an interesting thing to follow in markets, as long as they keep their economy policiy unchanged, which i believe will last several months from now. I don't see any of both economies daring to move their rates before US. They will wait. Inflation expectations remain low, so another reason to remain on hold. Remember Trichet could trigger some spikes, but wait till it's over, and be sure of market decision after it. Also take into account, today's leader could be Wall Street.!

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:16 Valeria Bednarik

1:17

Valeria Bednarik:

See you soon, and bye for now! As always a great pleasure to be here with you all.

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:17 Valeria Bednarik

1:18

FXstreet.com:

Thank you Valeria for your very useful advices and thanks everybody to be with us in the BoE and ECB rate decisions, as always it has been a pleasure!

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:18 FXstreet.com

1:18

FXstreet.com:

Just to remind, ECB and Boe has kept its interest rates unchanged, the BoE has done the same with its Q.E program.

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:18 FXstreet.com

1:18

FXstreet.com:

Some news from FXstreet.com:

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:18 FXstreet.com

1:19

FXstreet.com:

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=dae90dcb-1157-43cc-a3a2-a532b8075b68

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:19 FXstreet.com

1:19

[Comment From jjjj: ]

thank you Val

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:19 jj

1:19

FXstreet.com:

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=803fdb10-2d8c-4b61-95f5-19f14b6a8e68

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:19 FXstreet.com

1:19

FXstreet.com:

Be bullish, but remind to put Stop Loss!

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:19 FXstreet.com

1:19

FXstreet.com:

Stay Hungry, Stay Foolish. Thanks!

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:19 FXstreet.com

1:20

FXstreet.com:

Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:20 FXstreet.com

1:20

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

thank you Val...

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:20 Guest

1:20

FXstreet.com:

Thursday April 8, 2010 1:20 FXstreet.com

1:20

Posted by FXstreet Team in Fundamental Analysis, Live Coverage, Market Viewpoint & Live Commentary | Permalink | Comments (0)

03/16/2010

Fed Interest Rate Decision Live Coverage

FED Interest Rates Decision Live Coverage with Valeria Bednarik

(03/16/2010)

6:00

FXstreet.com:

Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:00 FXstreet.com

6:01

FXstreet.com:

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:01 FXstreet.com

6:02

FXstreet.com:

Good day everybody, Welcome to today's Federal Reserve interest rate decision Live Coverage in FXstreet.com

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:02 FXstreet.com

6:03

FXstreet.com:

Valeria Bednarik, FXstreet.com collaborator, will drive us throughout the decision and she will provide us with her advices and thougths.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:03 FXstreet.com

6:04

FXstreet.com:

Good day Valeria!

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:04 FXstreet.com

6:04

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi everyone, and welcome to this live coverage! We are here waiting for latest FOMC decision regarding economic policy. Market is really expecting no changes in the rates, yet reactions will depend on comments.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:04 Valeria Bednarik

6:04

[Comment From WimWim: ]

Hi Valeria. Any thoughts on the euro? Do you still expect to rise above the 1.3800 figure?

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:04 Wim

6:05

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi all, and welcome! What I have been saying these days, is that, unless the pair breaks above that area, that represents the 50% retracement of past year rally , we have no clear signs of a trend. Pair has been ranging in between 350 pips, since early February. mid ter talking is just a consolidative stage.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:05 Valeria Bednarik

6:06

Valeria Bednarik:

However, it the pair actually manages to close a daily, or better a weekly candle above that area, will be pointing, yes for further gains

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:06 Valeria Bednarik

6:06

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:06 Guest

6:06

[Comment From Arun KandyalArun Kandyal: ]

Hi Val how r u? where do you expect GBP technicaly during month end it seems big boys want some more downward thx.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:06 Arun Kandyal

6:08

Valeria Bednarik:

I see Gbp/Usd, strongly capped the past two week, or so, by the 1.5230 area. Even if we break higher today with the data, pair needs to overcome the 1.5350 zone to change the bearish trend of these past days. What I also had comment with you all several times, is that BOE is working hard to keep Pound weak, i believe in order to improve their economy sooner.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:08 Valeria Bednarik

6:08

[Comment From YuryYury: ]

Valeria, good day! Hope you are well! Please, express your thoughts re GBP/USD trend after rates decision. Thanks.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:08 Yury

6:09

Valeria Bednarik:

Short term talking, that 1.5230 area seems key. If we break higher an accelerates, I see 1.5280 as first resistance area, ahead of 1.5310 and 1.5350 mentioned above. On contrary, if pair loses 1.5160 support again, will probably lose further and approach to the 1.5110.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:09 Valeria Bednarik

6:10

Valeria Bednarik:

As usual, give the market 15 minutes to digest the news, after released. Ignore first spikes, be patient. Better miss some pips than lose a trade, and market will be here after news

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:10 Valeria Bednarik

6:10

[Comment From MihaiMihai: ]

Hola Valeria

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:10 Mihai

6:10

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

what u think now pound will raise or down if rate is not changed

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:10 Guest

6:10

FXstreet.com:

Fxstreet.com exclusive research: Consensus says Fed to leave rates unchanged

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:10 FXstreet.com

6:11

Valeria Bednarik:

Guest, I do believe that won't be rates, but statment, remove or extension of QE... comments about extremely low rates for an extended period what can move currencies.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:11 Valeria Bednarik

6:11

[Comment From RohitRohit: ]

what will be effect on gold if fed Increase rates?

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:11 Rohit

6:12

Valeria Bednarik:

The effect will likley hit dollar, and so gold will move in the opposite direction of greenback gold will suffer the consequences of dollar reaction, yet gold has been quite bullish today, as well as euro, and pound, and in general all risky assets... so seems we have chances of a trend continuation

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:12 Valeria Bednarik

6:12

[Comment From SushantSushant: ]

Hi Valeria. Holding long positions in euro. Shall i close it before rate decision is out

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:12 Sushant

6:13

Valeria Bednarik:

I can't take the decision for you, but If you are a short term trader, do you really think is worth it to take the risk of a 100 pips movement against you? I don't expect such reaction today.. but is a posibility.. and in forex, we had to take into account all posibilities. ;)

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:13 Valeria Bednarik

6:13

[Comment From Arun KandyalArun Kandyal: ]

HI Val Do you see GBP 1.6200 til mid april thx.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:13 Arun Kandyal

6:14

Valeria Bednarik:

hi Arun, in fact is quite far away. As comment, 1.5335 seems to be the key midterm inflection point. If pair really manages to break above that, next strong area comes around 1.5770 and really I expect that level to cap the upside. Only above that one, we could talk about 1.60

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:14 Valeria Bednarik

6:14

FXstreet.com:

FED leaves unchanged at 0.25% its interest rate

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:14 FXstreet.com

6:14

[Comment From KevinKevin: ]

Hello Valeria, Thanks for spend some time with us today. depending on what the fed says do you think we will see a rally in the dollar followed by a rally in the EUR as in the past?

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:14 Kevin

6:16

FXstreet.com:

Also, the Fed has decided to keep its discount rate at 0.75%

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:16 FXstreet.com

6:16

Valeria Bednarik:

Lately, market seems to be pricing in almost everything.. and rates decisions seem quite disappointing regarding the number of pips moved. However, being pound and euro so close to strong resistance areas, I will follow their behaviour for the next 30 minutes or so.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:16 Valeria Bednarik

6:16

Valeria Bednarik:

still believe there are no real reasons for those two to rise, from the fundamental side. Let me take a look at fed comments!

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:16 Valeria Bednarik

6:17

Valeria Bednarik:

Hoenig Concerned `Extended Period' May Cause Imbalances

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:17 Valeria Bednarik

6:18

Valeria Bednarik:

ok.. that means some members of FED will start rising rates sooners. Dollar has jumped to the downside, pre report, but is positive since news released. euro testong 1.3730 area, watch for an acceleration to 1.3710 and 1.3680 if extends

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:18 Valeria Bednarik

6:19

[Comment From tttt: ]

your personal viw please ,when FED is expected to raise rate

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:19 tt

6:19

Valeria Bednarik:

Good question! my personal view is second half of this year. not earlier.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:19 Valeria Bednarik

6:21

Valeria Bednarik:

gold is losing ground on dollar gains, and yen testing the 90.15 area, daily 100 SMA.However, reaction has been quite limited till now. Pound retreat from 1.5230 area, yet remains quite close, attempting to break higher. as long as above 1.5200 let's see if it can

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:21 Valeria Bednarik

6:21

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Hi Val the gbpusd seems to be holding near highs is that an indicatioon that the FOMC will push it higher?

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:21 Guest

6:22

Valeria Bednarik:

pre report movements had been just positioning adjustmnets.. However, see AUD, CAD and GBP close to daily highs against dollar, and gold erasing loses of the first spile to the downside, also approaching to daily high

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:22 Valeria Bednarik

6:22

Valeria Bednarik:

that's why is better to wait a couple of minutes and set probably entry points, before the news.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:22 Valeria Bednarik

6:22

[Comment From SanjaySanjay: ]

Hi,Why does USD/JPY drops lower inspite of strong stocks. Is JPY stronger?

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:22 Sanjay

6:23

Valeria Bednarik:

Japanese yen, is in fact trapped in a short range, ahead of tonights Bank of Japan rates decision... it spiked to the downside for a few minutes yet is back almost at prereport levels.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:23 Valeria Bednarik

6:25

Valeria Bednarik:

Yen tends to appreciate in March due to capital repatriation as is the end of the fiscal year in Japan. However BOJ has made a point saying they wont let the currency appreciate that much. so I really expect it to remain ranging these days, with no definitions. We have a daily trend line around 91.20 coming from past January highs.. capping the upside at this point. Also not an easy level to break

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:25 Valeria Bednarik

6:25

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Hi, any thoughts on aud nzd. Thanks

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:25 Guest

6:26

Valeria Bednarik:

Australia is one of the stronger economies around the world, and has been rising rates. NZD is attached to AUD due to their comercial relationship.. i expect both to remain strong as they have been lately, supported by gold. Aud key support lies at the 0.9060/70 zone. as long as above it, chances are to the upside

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:26 Valeria Bednarik

6:27

[Comment From laulau: ]

hi valeria what do u think about gold price ? up and down , down and up....

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:27 lau

6:28

Valeria Bednarik:

yet at the end, mostly up. I have been commenting several times that the metal is more than well supported by 1080/1100 area.. really I don't expect it to lose that level. However, 1.200 seems a bit too much these days.. and this up and down reatctions are just due to report.. we will settle down in a couple of minutes

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:28 Valeria Bednarik

6:29

[Comment From RioRio: ]

what just happened... already 230!

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:29 Rio

6:29

Valeria Bednarik:

Sorry Rio, what do you mean?

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:29 Valeria Bednarik

6:29

[Comment From Arun KandyalArun Kandyal: ]

Thx Val

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:29 Arun Kandyal

6:29

[Comment From Arun KandyalArun Kandyal: ]

When BOE wil raise rates after fed ?thx.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:29 Arun Kandyal

6:30

Valeria Bednarik:

i do believe that not BOE not ECB will dare to rise rates before FED.. And regarding particularly BOE, at this point, they are quite unwilling to rise rates.. if they will change their minds in 2 3 or 6 months, I don't know.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:30 Valeria Bednarik

6:30

[Comment From RioRio: ]

also tonite, look for speech from BoEs Bean at 19:00 GMT... likely to give some downside correction to the pound!

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:30 Rio

6:31

Valeria Bednarik:

As comment above, BOE is in fact supporting a lower currency, by their acts these past two months. Let's see what comments bring later today.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:31 Valeria Bednarik

6:32

Valeria Bednarik:

anyway, majors losing some ground, with no aims to extend the upside. Pound was unable to overcome the 1.5230 mentioned area, and approaches to 1.5200

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:32 Valeria Bednarik

6:32

[Comment From hanna bourihanna bouri: ]

hi, do you think that gbp will go lower before going up or what, secondly what about tomorrow bank of england minutes. thanks

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:32 hanna bouri

6:33

Valeria Bednarik:

I do believe that as long as capped by 1.5230, chances are to the downside, and tomorrow minutes, if they all voted along 9/9 to keep current economic policy, likely to favor more downside in the pair.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:33 Valeria Bednarik

6:34

[Comment From AbhijitAbhijit: ]

No reason seems for gbp or eur to goup after FED results, what do you think ?

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:34 Abhijit

6:36

Valeria Bednarik:

That they don't need FED to find reasons for not raising.. euro zone is suffering deep economic issues, and seems unable to solve it. Another EU prime ministers meeting today come out with a result that they will review Greece issues in April, offering no real or material solutions to the problem.. really I cna't see Euro at 1.40. But that's a personal view. market sometimes behave pretty weird

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:36 Valeria Bednarik

6:36

[Comment From blobblob: ]

Hi, do you think gbp/usd will be sold off in the asian session

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:36 blob

6:37

Valeria Bednarik:

Not really, I would expect to lose ground yes, but sold off seems a bit too much; probably investors will remain cautious ahead of Minutes. If we are going to see some strong rally in pound one way or the other, should be after that.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:37 Valeria Bednarik

6:37

[Comment From mzmz: ]

the bullish trend in the risk currencies have finally firmed

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:37 mz

6:38

Valeria Bednarik:

Tks for sharing with us, really, I don't see that, at least from a technical perspective. I want some further confirmations.. maybe i'm too conservative, but as long as euro remains under 1.3800.. for me is not time yet

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:38 Valeria Bednarik

6:38

[Comment From Ylber PatokuYlber Patoku: ]

Hi Valeria, what do you think about USD/JPY will do after BoJ decision tonight? Do you expect any major moves?!

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:38 Ylber Patoku

6:40

Valeria Bednarik:

Will depend if thet announce another capital injection as they did past Noember I believe... they tend to talk more than do so, probably, will do nothing, no injections, no rate hikes, and that should give some confidence to yen buyers.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:40 Valeria Bednarik

6:41

Valeria Bednarik:

ok after 30 minutes..majors are barely unchanged form prereport levels.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:41 Valeria Bednarik

6:41

[Comment From saleemsaleem: ]

please what about gbp i am short already and it still rising what do you think close or wait

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:41 saleem

6:42

Valeria Bednarik:

My friend, I'm sorry I can't take the decision for you.. but as comment above, watch the 1.5230 area.. a 4 hours ccandle close above it, will technically point for some further upside rallies.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:42 Valeria Bednarik

6:42

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

where do u see gbp/jpy is going

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:42 Guest

6:45

Valeria Bednarik:

Sorry I was looking te chart carefully. Pair has been quite bearish these past 2 months, and what i can see is that current movment close to 138.00 area, could be understood as barely corrective. 138.60 is in fact a strong resitance area to follow, mid term talking If pair loses 135.20 again in the next couple of days without overcoming mentioned 138.60 zone, likely to resume downtrend

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:45 Valeria Bednarik

6:45

[Comment From SaryuSaryu: ]

Val, what is the tone of FED from today's announcement? Is it dowish or mixed of both?

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:45 Saryu

6:46

Valeria Bednarik:

let me take a look..I'm answering questions and seems quite difficult to also read, and watch charts..

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:46 Valeria Bednarik

6:48

Valeria Bednarik:

ok what I have read quickly.. lead me to thing no changes in past perspective, with a slightly positive view for the economy in the future to come.. mixed I will say

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:48 Valeria Bednarik

6:48

[Comment From tiet VNtiet VN: ]

hi, pls. some hint on cadusd, thanks

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:48 tiet VN

6:50

Valeria Bednarik:

Pair has been quite bullish and still has no signs of reversing current trend. With oil around $ 82 a barrel, and having stablished a confortable floor around $ 80,00 I would expect usd/cad to extend the bearish trend and probably approach to paritiy in the next couple of weeks. support levels to watch from here are 1.0130 1.0080 and 1.0000 Short term resistances are at 1.0170 1.0210 and very strong 1.0250 as long as under this last, I don't see any probable upside recovery.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:50 Valeria Bednarik

6:50

[Comment From tttt: ]

what level of umployment rate ,how much improvement should be enough to make fed raise rates since obviously unemployment is too high at teh moment

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:50 tt

6:52

Valeria Bednarik:

That's a very good question, and yes in fact, one of the reasons why Fed wont rase rates. Probably, under 9.0% we will see them start consider acting.. anyway I do believe is mostly a matter of time than unemployment%

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:52 Valeria Bednarik

6:52

[Comment From pepepepe: ]

hi Valeria, can we sell GBP/USD at 1.5280 or not ?

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:52 pepe

6:53

Valeria Bednarik:

not really for me.. as comment above, if above 1.5230, likely to gain more ground during next hours.. it will depend on how and when, pair reaches that level.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:53 Valeria Bednarik

6:53

[Comment From Dr. RobDr. Rob: ]

Hi Val. Knowing the intent of the BoE wanting lower rate for cable, and looking at the weekly chart as we discussed some time past, when do you think the lower leg will resume the downtrend to reach about 1.4450?

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:53 Dr. Rob

6:54

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi Dr Rob, and nice to see you here. I would love to see a new daily close under 1.4980 area. If pair manages that, I yes would expect to break under 1.4770 lows, and approach to that target zone

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:54 Valeria Bednarik

6:54

[Comment From elieli: ]

eur/usd ?

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:54 eli

6:55

Valeria Bednarik:

Euro is holding above 1.3730 support attempting to regain the upside, still quite disappointing reaction at this point. let's see if manages to accelerate above daily high

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:55 Valeria Bednarik

6:56

Valeria Bednarik:

stocks are losing some ground and so do dollar particularly against commodity currencies.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:56 Valeria Bednarik

6:56

[Comment From RitchieRitchie: ]

Any comments on NZD/USD pls.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:56 Ritchie

6:58

Valeria Bednarik:

as comment above, being New Zealand economy so highly related to Australian one, and with Aud strongly bullish, I will expect NZD tto keep on rising. 0.7100 0.7145 and 0.7200 are the probable targets to the upside.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:58 Valeria Bednarik

6:58

[Comment From peterpeter: ]

Hi. what do you think eur/jpy will do after boj decision tonight

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:58 peter

6:59

Valeria Bednarik:

Will depend on the BOJ. technically pair is bearish; if they do some kinf of intervention, probably jump above 125.20/30 resistance area, and manage to extend the upside

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:59 Valeria Bednarik

6:59

[Comment From heruheru: ]

valeria if eur/usd in 1.3700 this time, may be eur/usd go 1.3800 for tomorrow ?

Tuesday March 16, 2010 6:59 heru

7:00

Valeria Bednarik:

Is a probability my friend.. but I can tell for sure what will happen tomorrow...

Tuesday March 16, 2010 7:00 Valeria Bednarik

7:00

[Comment From AvaAva: ]

Hi Val, do you think Aud/Usd will be down to Feb low of 0.85ish any time soon? What's your take on its range?

Tuesday March 16, 2010 7:00 Ava

7:01

Valeria Bednarik:

Not really. Despite 0.9200 strength, i won't expect the pair to fall that low anytime soon. as comment above, is the strongest currency across the board, and the only economy able to be rising rates

Tuesday March 16, 2010 7:01 Valeria Bednarik

7:02

[Comment From SaryuSaryu: ]

Thanks Val.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 7:02 Saryu

7:02

[Comment From ELDERFESTELDERFEST: ]

val if am to asked, what is your idea about usd/jpy

Tuesday March 16, 2010 7:02 ELDERFEST

7:04

Valeria Bednarik:

Honestly, I would expect some further strength in the ten this month, due to capital repatriation, but limited by BOJ I really don't see the pair losing the 90.00 level in the short term, either raising above 93.00.. will likely remain in range till end of month. That's my take

Tuesday March 16, 2010 7:04 Valeria Bednarik

7:05

[Comment From AvaAva: ]

Thanks Val.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 7:05 Ava

7:07

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Do you see USD/CAD bottoming or it will keep falling down? ...Thank you

Tuesday March 16, 2010 7:07 Guest

7:07

Valeria Bednarik:

As comment above, I don't see any bottom there yet I'm following oil prices, and the barrel remains well supported above $ 80.00. What has been a roof ends of 2009, has turned into a floor. as long as oil remains strong, Cad will also be. watch for an approach to parity in the next couple of weeks.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 7:07 Valeria Bednarik

7:07

FXstreet.com:

Okay friends, time has come. Last minutes, last questions. feel free to send them.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 7:07 FXstreet.com

7:08

[Comment From vikvik: ]

if eur/jpy is going up, expect gbp/jpy to be up too? what about all the other yen pairs, i see they tend to move in tandem

Tuesday March 16, 2010 7:08 vik

7:09

Valeria Bednarik:

as comment above regarding yen.. I was expecting some stronger appreciation for this time of the year. Now, BOJ has limited that chances making comments about intervention. If they are ready to act or not, will be discovered tonigh

Tuesday March 16, 2010 7:09 Valeria Bednarik

7:09

[Comment From tttt: ]

do you think when we enter in times of rasing rates usd rates wiil exceed eur rates

Tuesday March 16, 2010 7:09 tt

7:10

Valeria Bednarik:

not sure if exceed as Fed is quite under ECB right now, but that FED will raise first, ahve no doubts.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 7:10 Valeria Bednarik

7:11

FXstreet.com:

Valeria, could you give your conclusion about the FOMC statement? how will the market trade since now until the BoJ rate decision at 02:45 GMT?

Tuesday March 16, 2010 7:11 FXstreet.com

7:13

Valeria Bednarik:

FOMC has bring no new clues about rates or an improvement in their economic situation. That has been translated into poor reactions to the news. AS comment at the beginning, market tends to price in almost everything. only a shoking unexpcted movement could trigger strong rallies these days. Market will likley consolidate now, waiting for Asian opening and BOJ decision. Don't forget to protect your trades with stop losses!

Tuesday March 16, 2010 7:13 Valeria Bednarik

7:14

Valeria Bednarik:

As usual, my pleasure to be here with you! see you soon with more live coverages!! Thanks!

Tuesday March 16, 2010 7:14 Valeria Bednarik

7:15

FXstreet.com:

Thanks everybody for coming today's Fed live coverage, hope you won't miss the BoJ rate decision live coverage in a few hours at 02:45 GMT.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 7:15 FXstreet.com

7:16

FXstreet.com:

Fed has decided to leave refi and discount rates unchanged "in extended period" by 9 votes against 1. Market has reacted as you have seen it at FXstreet.com, thanks for coming!

Stay hungry, Stay bullish!

Tuesday March 16, 2010 7:16 FXstreet.com

7:16

FXstreet.com:

See you later at Japanese time!

Tuesday March 16, 2010 7:16 FXstreet.com

7:16

FXstreet.com:

Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Tuesday March 16, 2010 7:16 FXstreet.com

7:16

FXstreet.com:

Tuesday March 16, 2010 7:16 FXstreet.com

7:19

Continue reading "Fed Interest Rate Decision Live Coverage" »

Posted by FXstreet Team in Fundamental Analysis, Live Coverage, Market Viewpoint & Live Commentary, Open Discussion | Permalink | Comments (0)

BoJ Live Coverage

BoJ Interest Rates decision with Valeria Bednarik

(03/17/2010)

2:44

FXstreet.com:

Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 2:44 FXstreet.com

2:44

FXstreet.com:

Wednesday March 17, 2010 2:44 FXstreet.com

2:45

FXstreet.com:

Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. The BoJ Interest rate decision Live Coverage is going to start shortly. We would like to thank you for being here with us today attending the BoJ live Coverage.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 2:45 FXstreet.com

2:46

FXstreet.com:

I am pleased to introduce Valeria Bednarik who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. She will be giving us a direct picture for the market status. She currently works as chief analyst for Fxstreet.com, and trough her own company, manages an important clients portfolio for Fxsolutions, also training new traders around the word.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 2:46 FXstreet.com

2:46

FXstreet.com:

The BOJ Monetary Policy Statement includes the interest rate decision and any other economic decisions taken by the bank like quantitative easing facilities along with comments about current economic conditions in the country that have led to such decisions. It also includes the projection of the bank's economic outlook, giving early clues about the next movements coming from the bank. The Bank of Japan, however, has left rates steady at 0.1% since early 2008, and no changes are expected in the mid-term.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 2:46 FXstreet.com

2:46

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi everyone, and welcome to this live coverage. We are waiting for BOJ latest decision regarding economic policy. True that rates are expected unchange at 0.10%, market is expecting the Bank, to extend it's lending program, by around 5 trillion yen; that's exactly half of what they realse by the end of past year, when they extend the plan with 10 Trillion yens. BOJ intention is to keep the currency weak and avoid further appreciation against major rivals. At this point, just speculation about this posible plan, has been enough to keep the yen around past day's levels, consolidating against dollar around90,40 and 124.40 against euro.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 2:46 Valeria Bednarik

2:48

Valeria Bednarik:

However, lack of comments regarding this facilies will likley support a rise in teh japanse currency, even in current risk appetite enviroment

Wednesday March 17, 2010 2:48 Valeria Bednarik

2:48

FXstreet.com:

One of the purposes of this live coverage is to answer as many questions you may have about the topic or about the market. Please, send your questions to Valeria.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 2:48 FXstreet.com

2:49

Valeria Bednarik:

While USD/JPY remains trapped in a short range, in between 90.00 and 90.60, technically indicators are not givin ant clue abour posible trend short term talking.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 2:49 Valeria Bednarik

2:50

Valeria Bednarik:

pair needs to regain 90.80 area, above past week highs, to attempt to extend the upside, while key support for current range is located around 89.80 zone.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 2:50 Valeria Bednarik

2:51

Valeria Bednarik:

regarding Eur/Jpy, pair has been capped under 125.20 in the several attempts to regain the upside after testing levels under 120,00 early March. In general, pair trend has been quite bearish thus current consolidative range close to that mentioned area,

Wednesday March 17, 2010 2:51 Valeria Bednarik

2:53

Valeria Bednarik:

is suggesting a probable bottom forming. However, above that 125.20 zone, I would expect the pair to extend it's rally to next key strong midterm level, the 126.60 resistance zone. This level, that has been holding the downside for a few months before finally giving up by the ends of January,

Wednesday March 17, 2010 2:53 Valeria Bednarik

2:53

Valeria Bednarik:

is also the neck of a triple roof formation in the weekly chart. So above it, chances turn to the upside in the cross.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 2:53 Valeria Bednarik

2:55

Valeria Bednarik:

Gbp/Jpy also holds the bearish tone, as current upside movement is consider just corrective, as long as under 138.00/50. Pair is gaining some upside momentum favored by raise in high yieldings since ealry Europe past Monday.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 2:55 Valeria Bednarik

2:56

[Comment From Arun KandyalArun Kandyal: ]

HI Val Good Morning YOur views on GBP and Euro todays pls

Wednesday March 17, 2010 2:56 Arun Kandyal

2:58

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi Arun, and welcome. I do see both pair close or holding around midterm resistance areas we have been talking in this live coverages lately: 1.3800 for EUR/USD, and 1.5230 for GBP/USD. Both pairs had a slightly bullish perspective ahead, as need t develop some short term downside corrective movements due to overbough conditions in the hourly chart.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 2:58 Valeria Bednarik

3:00

Valeria Bednarik:

Euro above mentione 1.3800, has next strong resistance are a around 1.3860, while only under 1.3720/30 could return to 1.3680

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:00 Valeria Bednarik

3:00

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Hi Val, Why aren't they on time with there important news releases?

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:00 Guest

3:01

Valeria Bednarik:

really seems to be a normal use in Japan.. they never ever do this in a certain time. We are going to wait a couple of minutes more and see if in the midle we can figure iut what majors would do.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:01 Valeria Bednarik

3:03

Valeria Bednarik:

In general, market is on hold not making big movemnts this Asian session. Probably one because japanese yen crosses will react with BOJ. The other consideration is that later in the European sression, BOE will release the minutes of their last meeting, two weeks ago.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:03 Valeria Bednarik

3:03

Valeria Bednarik:

The number of votes will be carefully watched by investors

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:03 Valeria Bednarik

3:04

[Comment From martinmartin: ]

Valeria, how do you see EURGBP in a short term?

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:04 martin

3:06

Valeria Bednarik:

pair is moving inside a daily consolidative triangle, with the base arpund 0.9020 for today. This seems to be a continuation figure yet pair has lost past week upside momentum; if above .09100, chances are of a stronger upside continuation. However, I still see the pair slightly bullih as long as above mentioned 0.9020.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:06 Valeria Bednarik

3:06

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

What impact do you expect the BOE minutes to have?

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:06 Guest

3:07

Valeria Bednarik:

will depend on how many surprises it includes.. If the vote was not even, or some member voted against current policy should move strongly to the upside; if all agree to left current economic policy unchanged, pair should not react to wildly.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:07 Valeria Bednarik

3:09

Valeria Bednarik:

ok.. till now, no news.. last month, news were published a bit earlier, but seems today we will have to wait a bit. let me check what's going on

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:09 Valeria Bednarik

3:10

Valeria Bednarik:

I can only see news regarding RBA advancing furhter rate hikes, nothing new across the markets, as australian dollar has remained the strongest currency across the board.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:10 Valeria Bednarik

3:11

Valeria Bednarik:

Sorry, some delay around here in the conection.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:11 Valeria Bednarik

3:11

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Yes, it's really sad for them to think it is ok to keep everyone in the market waiting like this

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:11 Guest

3:13

Valeria Bednarik:

Well, is quite normal at this point. Seems we have to work out how to wait for this particular authorities in the future

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:13 Valeria Bednarik

3:14

Valeria Bednarik:

Besides, this is also quite common for Asian session: a couple of days a month with no much activity.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:14 Valeria Bednarik

3:14

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Regarding JPY interest decision, has delays or early announcements portend anything?

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:14 Guest

3:15

Valeria Bednarik:

Hardly. In fact, today I consider it a bit interesting due to chance of intervention

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:15 Valeria Bednarik

3:16

Valeria Bednarik:

they have been making comments about that poosibility, past week.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:16 Valeria Bednarik

3:16

Valeria Bednarik:

However Bank of Japan authorities tend to talk more than act. Usually, just mention intervention probabilites without materializing them

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:16 Valeria Bednarik

3:17

Valeria Bednarik:

And that had worled for a time.. but not lately. That's why I expect some action. But well, I could be wrong.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:17 Valeria Bednarik

3:18

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Yes, I know what you mean about the Asian session Val. I usually just scalp the market rang during times like this if there is no news

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:18 Guest

3:20

Valeria Bednarik:

Yes that's the general idea of trading this particular asian sessions. What I see is dollar falling strongly this week, yet yen unable to fall nor to rise. Seems that investors are waiting this statement to take a stronger decision regarding the currency.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:20 Valeria Bednarik

3:20

[Comment From dineshdinesh: ]

if eur/usd cant reach 1.3800?

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:20 dinesh

3:21

Valeria Bednarik:

I do believe so yes, Dinesh. pair is consolidating quite close to the area. The hard thing will be to overcome and stay above that area, as it represents the 50% retracement of past 2009 March November rally.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:21 Valeria Bednarik

3:22

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

same rate, but with intervention at chosen levels.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:22 Guest

3:22

Valeria Bednarik:

news did not come out yet, but yes that's what i was expecting today.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:22 Valeria Bednarik

3:24

Valeria Bednarik:

Back to euro, and high yieldings in general, seems that risk appetite is back and holding still. Let's see if in the next 24 hours, rallies extend confirming a bearish rally for dollar. S&P past Tuesday, closed at it highest level since October 2008, supporting the general optimism

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:24 Valeria Bednarik

3:25

Valeria Bednarik:

Personally, I do believe that Euro however, could remain subdue, or delayed in its bullish rallies compared to other currencies, as long as debt crisis expands in the euro zone.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:25 Valeria Bednarik

3:26

Valeria Bednarik:

Checking back news.. nothing yet

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:26 Valeria Bednarik

3:28

Valeria Bednarik:

ok at least I do believe MOJ governor is schedule to start his speech at 3:30 GMT, so in about 2 minutes we could have some clues-

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:28 Valeria Bednarik

3:29

[Comment From cheocheo: ]

Valeria, yesterday the pound drop suddenly to 1.4977 then shot up again. Do you think this can happed again?

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:29 cheo

3:30

Valeria Bednarik:

Interesting question! what i see in pound is that right now, is attemting to finally overcome the 1.5230 area, still with no technical confirmations above the level. Hsas been 10 pips up or down for the past hours.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:30 Valeria Bednarik

3:31

Valeria Bednarik:

I wil be following the 1.5200/1,5180 area: if start falling and accelerates trough that level, I would yes, expect more downside pressure in the pair, to at least the 1.5060 zone.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:31 Valeria Bednarik

3:32

Valeria Bednarik:

On contrary, if overcomes yesterday's high from current area, i'm expecting the pair to extend the upside and approach to 1.5330/50 zone, also quite strong.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:32 Valeria Bednarik

3:33

Valeria Bednarik:

No volatility in market, quite poor session this one. Maybe BOJ will bring some, but at this point, seems unlikely

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:33 Valeria Bednarik

3:34

Valeria Bednarik:

Australian and Canadian dollars are quite interesting at this point, gaining ground agaisnt dollar. that suggest dollar weakness and is a matter of time for the rest to follow

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:34 Valeria Bednarik

3:34

[Comment From MitchMitch: ]

Do you expect usdcad to continue it's downward trend?

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:34 Mitch

3:36

Valeria Bednarik:

Yes Mich actually, if you take a look al oil you will find out how $ 80 per barrel has become a strong support, having been a strong resistance most of past 2009. Besides, BOC governor comment this week they are quite confortable with current Cad stength, so i see chances of an approach to parity very soon.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:36 Valeria Bednarik

3:40

FXstreet.com:

The BoJ decision is delaying more than expected today. We run out of time, Valeria any final advice depending if the rates stay on hold or not?

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:40 FXstreet.com

3:40

Valeria Bednarik:

sorry my friends, I really have to leave. Seems we lost the chance of seing some live action trough here. Anyway! I will be back anytime with more live coverages and educative sessions to share with all of you.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:40 Valeria Bednarik

3:41

Valeria Bednarik:

Pay attention to commodity currencies, they are leading the way, and never forget to protect your trades with the respective stop loss!

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:41 Valeria Bednarik

3:41

[Comment From MitchMitch: ]

Thank you

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:41 Mitch

3:42

FXstreet.com:

Thanks Valeria. For all the readers, keep paying attention to FXstreet.com's homepage and calendar, we will publish the Rates Decision there as soon as it will be published.

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:42 FXstreet.com

3:43

FXstreet.com:

Thanks for your time and see you in next Live Coverage!

Wednesday March 17, 2010 3:43 FXstreet.com

3:43

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Posted by FXstreet Team in Fundamental Analysis, Live Coverage, Market Viewpoint & Live Commentary, Open Discussion, Technical Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)