FXstreet.com Live Sessions Archives: Live Coverage

Non-Farm Payroll release with Valeria Bednarik

(11/06/2009)

1:13

FXstreet.com:

Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Friday November 6, 2009 1:13 FXstreet.com

1:13

FXstreet.com:

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Friday November 6, 2009 1:13 FXstreet.com

1:14

FXstreet.com:

Today’s sponsor is FXCM.

Friday November 6, 2009 1:14 FXstreet.com

1:14

FXstreet.com:

Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's U.S. NFP Live Coverage is going to start shortly. I am pleased to introduce Valeria Bednarik who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. She will be giving us a direct picture for the market status.

Friday November 6, 2009 1:14 FXstreet.com

1:14

FXstreet.com:

Valeria Bednarik has been an active Forex trader for the last 4 years, specializing in the International Foreign Exchange Market. She also graduates in the Universidad Catolica del Salvador, in Argentina, as a Public Account, specializing in financials and cost managements. She currently manages an important clients portfolio for IFX Markets, Boston and is senior trader manager at Molfx-Management; besides she works training new traders with Trader College LLC specializing in technical analysis, for the English speaking community.

Friday November 6, 2009 1:14 FXstreet.com

1:14

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi everybody and welcome back! As usual, is an honor to be here with you again. Today we are waiting for the latest U.S. employment data. The fact is that despite the unemployment rate is expexted to the upside at 9.9% market has already priced in a 10% this year, so it could not shock us.

Friday November 6, 2009 1:14 Valeria Bednarik

1:15

Valeria Bednarik:

However, two factors we must pay attention two: First, Canada reading was really bad much much worst than expected, and usually, USUALLY, U.S. data tends to come in line with Canada

Friday November 6, 2009 1:15 Valeria Bednarik

1:15	Did the U.S. labor market hit the bottom? Yes, it will recover at a good rate. ( 5% ) Yes, it will recover slowly ( 32% ) No, It will become worse further ( 18% ) No, but there is a sing of recover. ( 27% ) I have no idea. ( 18% ) Friday November 6, 2009 1:15

1:15

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

welcome valeria...pressure to have u hr

Friday November 6, 2009 1:15 macharia

1:15

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi and tks!

Friday November 6, 2009 1:15 Valeria Bednarik

1:17

Valeria Bednarik:

Anyway, remember that lately, U.S. data tends to do it's efect on stocks: if stocks rise, risk appetite likely to push dollar down, while a bad data likely to send stocks down and dollar down. This is not a law: is what has been happening for almost all this year

Friday November 6, 2009 1:17 Valeria Bednarik

1:17

[Comment From India ArvindIndia Arvind: ]

Should i buy or sell EURUSD?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:17 India Arvind

1:17

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Friday November 6, 2009 1:17

1:17

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi india! already whit that? ok gave market 15 minutes after the data... we could have crazy spikes and gaps. Watch stocks reaction. I would lile to sell euro only under 1.4800

Friday November 6, 2009 1:17 Valeria Bednarik

1:18

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

if it goes in line with canada..do we expect worse for the us or stronger curency?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:18 macharia

1:18

Valeria Bednarik:

Yes macharia should be the idea... but we need to see how market reacts... it could change of course but unlikely

Friday November 6, 2009 1:18 Valeria Bednarik

1:19

Valeria Bednarik:

Seems so in the long term.. Above that level should extend the upside, but we are quite far away now.. a spike from here to there, will have to show some retreat before a continuation

Friday November 6, 2009 1:19 Valeria Bednarik

1:19

[Comment From Kandasaamy.V.S.Kandasaamy.V.S.: ]

i put order to buy eur/jpy at 136.00 is this correct

Friday November 6, 2009 1:19 Kandasaamy.V.S.

1:19

Valeria Bednarik:

above is your answer sorry. i have some lag

Friday November 6, 2009 1:19 Valeria Bednarik

1:20

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

hi what do u thinks eur-usd

Friday November 6, 2009 1:20 Guest

1:20

FXstreet.com:

New Chapter of the Learning Center: "Developing a Trading System" - Available at:
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Friday November 6, 2009 1:20 FXstreet.com

1:21

Valeria Bednarik:

I thing dollar is weak, yet today we will move acordingly to stocks.. Euro under 1.4800 will likely fall, while I need a clear move above 1.4930 to confirm the upside continuation for now, pair has been contained under the 61.8% retramecemet at 1.4900 of the last daily fall

Friday November 6, 2009 1:21 Valeria Bednarik

1:21

[Comment From India ArvindIndia Arvind: ]

when 1.4800 reach EURUSD then u want me sell

Friday November 6, 2009 1:21 India Arvind

1:21

Valeria Bednarik:

Well, not in a first spike not doubts. I will gave market 15 minutes to settle and define

Friday November 6, 2009 1:21 Valeria Bednarik

1:21

[Comment From KBroseKBrose: ]

Do you trade the AUD at all Valeria?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:21 KBrose

1:21

Valeria Bednarik:

Sometimes yes! just... people here want to know about euro ;)

Friday November 6, 2009 1:21 Valeria Bednarik

1:22

[Comment From yasir kidwaiyasir kidwai: ]

hi valeria how are you this beautiful day

Friday November 6, 2009 1:22 yasir kidwai

1:22

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi! not so beautiful here, about to rain... but great tks!!!

Friday November 6, 2009 1:22 Valeria Bednarik

1:22

[Comment From EL PipinEL Pipin: ]

Will the Data affect every single currency cross?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:22 EL Pipin

1:22

Valeria Bednarik:

yes, as it will affect DOLLAR

Friday November 6, 2009 1:22 Valeria Bednarik

1:22

[Comment From yasir kidwaiyasir kidwai: ]

hi valeria what u think about usd/jpy

Friday November 6, 2009 1:22 yasir kidwai

1:23

Valeria Bednarik:

I see it very range bound. should rise above 91.30, and fall heavily under 90.20

Friday November 6, 2009 1:23 Valeria Bednarik

1:23

[Comment From BobBob: ]

Is this Wayne McDonell live cover of NON farm?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:23 Bob

1:23

Valeria Bednarik:

No! sorry.. Wayne is somewhere else

Friday November 6, 2009 1:23 Valeria Bednarik

1:23

[Comment From JOSHJOSH: ]

gbp usd will it go against expectations as it did after BOE meeting

Friday November 6, 2009 1:23 JOSH

1:23

Valeria Bednarik:

I believe it will go alogong with the rest... watch for the 1.6500/20 support area there, or above 1.6640 yesterday's high

Friday November 6, 2009 1:23 Valeria Bednarik

1:23

[Comment From MilosMilos: ]

I put a sell order on eur/usd at 1.4900 and now i'm waiting for the us data

Friday November 6, 2009 1:23 Milos

1:24

Valeria Bednarik:

Seems a bit too risky for me, but good luck!

Friday November 6, 2009 1:24 Valeria Bednarik

1:24

[Comment From India ArvindIndia Arvind: ]

ok thankx let me know when i buy or sell EURUSD

Friday November 6, 2009 1:24 India Arvind

1:24

[Comment From EL PipinEL Pipin: ]

Whats your take on AUDCAD?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:24 EL Pipin

1:24

FXstreet.com:

you can find his webinar at http://www.fxstreet.com/live/

Friday November 6, 2009 1:24 FXstreet.com

1:25

Valeria Bednarik:

We are close to strong highs there. If surpased, expect a continuation thus seems we need some strong downside correction from a technical perspective, Yet! no signs of such yet.

Friday November 6, 2009 1:25 Valeria Bednarik

1:25

[Comment From skeenoskeeno: ]

Hi V, what are your thoughts on the GBP/USD, thx

Friday November 6, 2009 1:25 skeeno

1:25

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Friday November 6, 2009 1:25

1:26

[Comment From JeffJeff: ]

How about the cable, Valeria

Friday November 6, 2009 1:26 Jeff

1:26

Valeria Bednarik:

Will likely move along with the rest as said above, main support is 1.6500/20 area. while above 1.6640 pair likely to gain strong upside momentum it all will depend on data and stocks

Friday November 6, 2009 1:26 Valeria Bednarik

1:26

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

alot of result are expected within the same hour for usd...now whch one else to consider apart from non.farm pay roll?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:26 macharia

1:26

Valeria Bednarik:

unemployment rate, and previous month revisions. Those are the numbers to wtach

Friday November 6, 2009 1:26 Valeria Bednarik

1:26

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Good Morning, where do you see aud/usd?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:26 Guest

1:26

Valeria Bednarik:

close to the highs is above 0.9200

Friday November 6, 2009 1:26 Valeria Bednarik

1:26

[Comment From orkhohnorkhohn: ]

hi everybody

Friday November 6, 2009 1:26 orkhohn

1:26

[Comment From DavidDavid: ]

what do you think about gold, Valeria?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:26 David

1:27

Valeria Bednarik:

Rally is quite overreacted, due to especulation, yet it seems we are going to continue up. I don't see any signs of correction there... should close a day at least under 1070 to see so. And gold strength means dollar weaknes remember that

Friday November 6, 2009 1:27 Valeria Bednarik

1:28

[Comment From zachzach: ]

hi Val, what is your view on GBPUSD after NFP?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:28 zach

1:28

Valeria Bednarik:

I will tell you after.. I can't see the future... not yet.. I'm worlking on it

Friday November 6, 2009 1:28 Valeria Bednarik

1:28

[Comment From JesusTJesusT: ]

i'm going short with the GBP/us

Friday November 6, 2009 1:28 JesusT

1:28

Valeria Bednarik:

Good luck then

Friday November 6, 2009 1:28 Valeria Bednarik

1:28

[Comment From AnatoliAnatoli: ]

Hello, Valeria, where do you stand on the question -- Did the U.S. labor market hit the bottom?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:28 Anatoli

1:28

FXstreet.com:

Unemployment rate Consensus expectations at 9.9% vs 9.8% (previous)

Friday November 6, 2009 1:28 FXstreet.com

1:29

Valeria Bednarik:

I'm not quite sure about that, as unemployment rate keeps growing. let's see today's rate.

Friday November 6, 2009 1:29 Valeria Bednarik

1:29

[Comment From royroy: ]

do you think we can long eurusd today

Friday November 6, 2009 1:29 roy

1:29

Valeria Bednarik:

We can if data support it yes,

Friday November 6, 2009 1:29 Valeria Bednarik

1:29

[Comment From EL PipinEL Pipin: ]

But people need Oil more than Gold...

Friday November 6, 2009 1:29 EL Pipin

1:30

Valeria Bednarik:

unemployment rate 10.2% !!!!

Friday November 6, 2009 1:30 Valeria Bednarik

1:30

Valeria Bednarik:

stocks falling big, dollar and yen rising

Friday November 6, 2009 1:30 Valeria Bednarik

1:30

[Comment From mikemike: ]

this is dollar bullish !!!!!!

Friday November 6, 2009 1:30 mike

1:30

FXstreet.com:

Nonfarm Payrolls -190 K (result) vs -175 K (forecast)

Friday November 6, 2009 1:30 FXstreet.com

1:30

Valeria Bednarik:

yes Mike

Friday November 6, 2009 1:30 Valeria Bednarik

1:31

[Comment From Kandasaamy.V.S.Kandasaamy.V.S.: ]

I put sell order eur/jpy at 136.00 is this correct

Friday November 6, 2009 1:31 Kandasaamy.V.S.

1:31

Valeria Bednarik:

useless now I believe

Friday November 6, 2009 1:31 Valeria Bednarik

1:31

Valeria Bednarik:

Ok, as expected, bad data is supporting dollar rises... yet nothing is defined yet. Give market a couple of 15minutes candles.. and then take your decisions

Friday November 6, 2009 1:31 Valeria Bednarik

1:32

[Comment From blofeldblofeld: ]

hi. i need eur/usd down. In which case on payrolls data?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:32 blofeld

1:32

Valeria Bednarik:

This case.. a bad reading. Yen is rising stronger than dollar.

Friday November 6, 2009 1:32 Valeria Bednarik

1:32

[Comment From JOSHJOSH: ]

whether being a weekend will make the moves deeper

Friday November 6, 2009 1:32 JOSH

1:32

Valeria Bednarik:

Yes exactly.. .profit taking and such, will jit the markets

Friday November 6, 2009 1:32 Valeria Bednarik

1:32

FXstreet.com:

U.S. nonfarm payrolls: - 190k (result) vs -175k (forecast)

U.S. unemployment rate: 10.2% (result) vs 9.9% (forecast)

Friday November 6, 2009 1:32 FXstreet.com

1:33

Valeria Bednarik:

Ok after a first spike, majors are retreating. Gold is about to print a fresh high, attemting to reacg 1100

Friday November 6, 2009 1:33 Valeria Bednarik

1:34

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

if the un emloyment rate hit 10 mark..is this positive or negative for the dollar?/

Friday November 6, 2009 1:34 macharia

1:34

Valeria Bednarik:

more than negative news, meaning stocks falling, meaning generally dollar rising.

Friday November 6, 2009 1:34 Valeria Bednarik

1:34

[Comment From DusanDusan: ]

Do you think, that weak dollar will drive oil to 100$ till the end of year?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:34 Dusan

1:34

Valeria Bednarik:

No. oil wont move above 85 this year

Friday November 6, 2009 1:34 Valeria Bednarik

1:34

[Comment From doc jodoc jo: ]

hi ! where do see Gold

Friday November 6, 2009 1:34 doc jo

1:34

Valeria Bednarik:

1100/30

Friday November 6, 2009 1:34 Valeria Bednarik

1:35

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Friday November 6, 2009 1:35

1:35

[Comment From KBroseKBrose: ]

I mainly trade the aud/usd & aud/jpy crosses, both are testing the weeks high, the NFP data could see it go sharply in either direction?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:35 KBrose

1:35

FXstreet.com:

U.S. nonfarm payrolls: - 190k (result) vs -175k (forecast)

U.S. unemployment rate: 10.2%(result) vs 9.9% (forecast)

Friday November 6, 2009 1:35 FXstreet.com

1:35

Valeria Bednarik:

yeap.. as it's affecting all marjet. There we go with dollar rising as stocks keep falling in US

Friday November 6, 2009 1:35 Valeria Bednarik

1:35

Valeria Bednarik:

oil is also falling big

Friday November 6, 2009 1:35 Valeria Bednarik

1:36

[Comment From EL PipinEL Pipin: ]

WOW HOLY MOLE

Friday November 6, 2009 1:36 EL Pipin

1:36

[Comment From EL PipinEL Pipin: ]

I closed my GBPJPY short just before the fall =(

Friday November 6, 2009 1:36 EL Pipin

1:36

Valeria Bednarik:

Sorry to hear that...

Friday November 6, 2009 1:36 Valeria Bednarik

1:36

[Comment From ASADASAD: ]

Should Euro bre bearish

Friday November 6, 2009 1:36 ASAD

1:36

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

from the result..we expect the dollar to rise

Friday November 6, 2009 1:36 macharia

1:36

Valeria Bednarik:

yeap. dollar should rise. Take a look at aud and cad, they tend to advance the movements

Friday November 6, 2009 1:36 Valeria Bednarik

1:36

[Comment From EmmanuelEmmanuel: ]

so should we long or short

Friday November 6, 2009 1:36 Emmanuel

1:37

Valeria Bednarik:

Again with that??? my God! what do you think??

Friday November 6, 2009 1:37 Valeria Bednarik

1:37

[Comment From joanjoan: ]

do you think the eur/usd pair will go long to brake 1.4900 level after the effect of the NFA payrolls

Friday November 6, 2009 1:37 joan

1:37

Valeria Bednarik:

Seems quite unlikely at this point, yes as long as we remain above 1.4800 level, there is still a small chance

Friday November 6, 2009 1:37 Valeria Bednarik

1:37

[Comment From EL PipinEL Pipin: ]

I can see a gap already for next week..

Friday November 6, 2009 1:37 EL Pipin

1:37

Valeria Bednarik:

probably yes,

Friday November 6, 2009 1:37 Valeria Bednarik

1:38

[Comment From mikemike: ]

I think 1.64 area for G/U and 1.4680 area for E/U

Friday November 6, 2009 1:38 mike

1:38

Valeria Bednarik:

Gbp has quite a support zone around 1.6500/20, under that seems likely, and EUR needst to break 1.4800 still.. and we are quite far form that

Friday November 6, 2009 1:38 Valeria Bednarik

1:38

[Comment From kappikappi: ]

-190k is worst than forcast but better than previous month shouldn't it be positive for the stock mkt and usd

Friday November 6, 2009 1:38 kappi

1:39

Valeria Bednarik:

yes, but the unemployment rate at 10.2% is not only above expectatiosn, but also above the 10% for this year market has already priced in.. that's the negative factor triggering this rally

Friday November 6, 2009 1:39 Valeria Bednarik

1:39

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

where do u see the gbp/usd after this/??

Friday November 6, 2009 1:39 macharia

1:40

Valeria Bednarik:

Close to 1.6440 yet... look at majors... too quiet, unable to break supports, only Japanese yen is appreciating... dollar seems more reluctant to extend for now, as gold is at 1097

Friday November 6, 2009 1:40 Valeria Bednarik

1:40

[Comment From petrickpetrick: ]

Hi, may i ask if this is the turning point for dollar?? meaning trend reversal against majors??

Friday November 6, 2009 1:40 petrick

1:40

FXstreet.com:

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Friday November 6, 2009 1:40 FXstreet.com

1:41

Valeria Bednarik:

against euro 1.4440, agaisnt gbp under 1.5700 against CHF above 1.0550

Friday November 6, 2009 1:41 Valeria Bednarik

1:41

Valeria Bednarik:

Aud under 0.88 cad above 1.11

Friday November 6, 2009 1:41 Valeria Bednarik

1:41

[Comment From azimazim: ]

how can this result afect the risk apptite

Friday November 6, 2009 1:41 azim

1:42

Valeria Bednarik:

bad data means we don't have optimism on the economic recovery.. so we need to run to safety, and safety is U.S. treasuries, conisdered one of the most safe investement across the world to buy treasuries, you need dollars.

Friday November 6, 2009 1:42 Valeria Bednarik

1:42

[Comment From mikemike: ]

obama's primting press must hurry!!!!!!!

Friday November 6, 2009 1:42 mike

1:42

Valeria Bednarik:

HAHAHA

Friday November 6, 2009 1:42 Valeria Bednarik

1:42

[Comment From EL PipinEL Pipin: ]

Ok, AUDCAD (GOLD/OIL) is looking highly overbought

Friday November 6, 2009 1:42 EL Pipin

1:43

Valeria Bednarik:

That's why i told you it should correct. yet do you see any sign of such correction?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:43 Valeria Bednarik

1:43

[Comment From EmmanuelEmmanuel: ]

I still don't get it ... long or short ?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:43 Emmanuel

1:44

Valeria Bednarik:

Emmanuel, give market 15 more minutes ok? euro is bact at 1.4850, after rebounding a bit above the 1.4810 support area. In here for me is a no trade

Friday November 6, 2009 1:44 Valeria Bednarik

1:44

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

do you think back to 1.4770 possible? considering the result?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:44 Guest

1:44

Valeria Bednarik:

is posible yes, considering the result, but dollar is having a hard time to extend the rally

Friday November 6, 2009 1:44 Valeria Bednarik

1:44

[Comment From yasir kidwaiyasir kidwai: ]

valeria wii u pls tell me about aud/usd

Friday November 6, 2009 1:44 yasir kidwai

1:45

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Friday November 6, 2009 1:45

1:45

Valeria Bednarik:

yeap, watch either for a breal unde 0.9100 or pair regaining the 0.9170 level. Pair still has a bullish perpsepctive. Aslong as gold keeps rising, aud should be well bid

Friday November 6, 2009 1:45 Valeria Bednarik

1:45

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

are you woried valeria???don worry some of us are that new n wi need a repeat of ansers to understand

Friday November 6, 2009 1:45 macharia

1:46

Valeria Bednarik:

I'm not worried and i love to answer all. But don't ask me to trade for you. I can't take your decisions just that... you can ask as many times as you need of course.

Friday November 6, 2009 1:46 Valeria Bednarik

1:47

[Comment From viovio: ]

buy above 1.4870.......sell 1.4810.......wait!!!!

Friday November 6, 2009 1:47 vio

1:47

Valeria Bednarik:

Exactly!

Friday November 6, 2009 1:47 Valeria Bednarik

1:47

[Comment From EL PipinEL Pipin: ]

Valerie, whats your view of GBPCHF?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:47 EL Pipin

1:47

Valeria Bednarik:

Not clear really, consolidating... has not view on that pair at this point really sorry

Friday November 6, 2009 1:47 Valeria Bednarik

1:48

Valeria Bednarik:

US Stocks are falling big... dollar should gain ground now and break previous lows against eur and gbp to extend the rally.

Friday November 6, 2009 1:48 Valeria Bednarik

1:48

[Comment From joyothjoyoth: ]

gold is moving up? why?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:48 joyoth

1:49

Valeria Bednarik:

well seems to be a good sure investment these days.. yet is losing some ground currently at 1093

Friday November 6, 2009 1:49 Valeria Bednarik

1:49

[Comment From ASADASAD: ]

i am thinking to buy Eur @ 1.4805 withSl @ 1.4755 And Tp @1.4905 plz guide

Friday November 6, 2009 1:49 ASAD

1:49

Valeria Bednarik:

I'm not sure if buying is agood idea with stocks falling big

Friday November 6, 2009 1:49 Valeria Bednarik

1:49

[Comment From arbenarben: ]

its good to sell eur

Friday November 6, 2009 1:49 arben

1:49

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

its good to sell euro now

Friday November 6, 2009 1:49 Guest

1:49

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

what comes of eur/usd now

Friday November 6, 2009 1:49 Guest

1:50

Valeria Bednarik:

Under 1.4810, likely to extend the fall yes. Watch commodiites... are loosing ground pretty fast also

Friday November 6, 2009 1:50 Valeria Bednarik

1:50

[Comment From GiovanniGiovanni: ]

the USD is going down anyway, relax

Friday November 6, 2009 1:50 Giovanni

1:50

[Comment From India ArvindIndia Arvind: ]

will EURUSD hit 1.4800 or 1.4900 please only tell me one ..which prize will hit ?? Today

Friday November 6, 2009 1:50 India Arvind

1:50

Valeria Bednarik:

1.4800 has a lot of more chances... je

Friday November 6, 2009 1:50 Valeria Bednarik

1:50

[Comment From kappikappi: ]

despite the worst nbr seems no follow thru in euro selling spot around 1.4850 would this mean euro up ?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:50 kappi

1:51

Valeria Bednarik:

nop just give market a second, and see how gold and oil fall that should support furhter dollar rises today.

Friday November 6, 2009 1:51 Valeria Bednarik

1:51

[Comment From viovio: ]

long above 1.4870

Friday November 6, 2009 1:51 vio

1:51

[Comment From EdEd: ]

EURUSD can continue up within days ?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:51 Ed

1:52

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Friday November 6, 2009 1:52

1:52

Valeria Bednarik:

Anything can happen. Remember I said a trend reversal comes only under 1.4440

Friday November 6, 2009 1:52 Valeria Bednarik

1:52

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

what about is gbp/usd

Friday November 6, 2009 1:52 Guest

1:53

Valeria Bednarik:

needs to break 1.6500/20 area to extend to the downsde

Friday November 6, 2009 1:53 Valeria Bednarik

1:53

[Comment From Dr. RobDr. Rob: ]

Hi Val. Nice pleasure being with you again.

Friday November 6, 2009 1:53 Dr. Rob

1:53

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi Dr Rob welcome back!

Friday November 6, 2009 1:53 Valeria Bednarik

1:53

[Comment From sahersaher: ]

thanks for your kind help Valeria,

Friday November 6, 2009 1:53 saher

1:53

[Comment From travistravis: ]

do you rhink gbp/jpy will reach 147...today

Friday November 6, 2009 1:53 travis

1:53

Valeria Bednarik:

Seem a bit too much travis

Friday November 6, 2009 1:53 Valeria Bednarik

1:53

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

tyhanx valeria...i like ua response

Friday November 6, 2009 1:53 macharia

1:53

Valeria Bednarik:

Yor welcome!

Friday November 6, 2009 1:53 Valeria Bednarik

1:54

[Comment From travistravis: ]

it is done 120pip so far has it got another 200 more

Friday November 6, 2009 1:54 travis

1:54

Valeria Bednarik:

exactly seems to much even for that pair

Friday November 6, 2009 1:54 Valeria Bednarik

1:54

[Comment From markmark: ]

what price can i sell eur usd?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:54 mark

1:54

Valeria Bednarik:

I believe that downside will likely be trigger under 1.4800/10 area

Friday November 6, 2009 1:54 Valeria Bednarik

1:54

[Comment From mikemike: ]

if selling the euro ,why not GBP also????right

Friday November 6, 2009 1:54 mike

1:55

Valeria Bednarik:

both the same direction today yes.

Friday November 6, 2009 1:55 Valeria Bednarik

1:55

[Comment From EL PipinEL Pipin: ]

So, the move in AudCad was corrective?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:55 EL Pipin

1:55

Valeria Bednarik:

I srtill dont see any correction there!

Friday November 6, 2009 1:55 Valeria Bednarik

1:55

[Comment From babubabu: ]

buy euro @ 1.4788

Friday November 6, 2009 1:55 babu

1:55

[Comment From Dr. RobDr. Rob: ]

I don't believe this is a USD trend reversal. The markets were prepared to aborb 10% but this is well above that and in line with Canada as usual. Monday wll prove very interesting after absorbing a week full of data

Friday November 6, 2009 1:55 Dr. Rob

1:55

Valeria Bednarik:

yes! exactly, tks for the comment

Friday November 6, 2009 1:55 Valeria Bednarik

1:56

[Comment From wimwim: ]

Not much selling power in the EUR/USD

Friday November 6, 2009 1:56 wim

1:56

Valeria Bednarik:

Not exactly, that's why i don't like selling or buying in the midle of anywhere. I need to see STRENGTH in amovmeenmt to take a trade

Friday November 6, 2009 1:56 Valeria Bednarik

1:56

[Comment From EL PipinEL Pipin: ]

Either way, theres a tripple top formed in AudCad, with possibility of breakout

Friday November 6, 2009 1:56 EL Pipin

1:57

Valeria Bednarik:

yes... it is in the daily

Friday November 6, 2009 1:57 Valeria Bednarik

1:57

[Comment From ajnakajnak: ]

am yet to get the direction of eur/usd?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:57 ajnak

1:57

Valeria Bednarik:

as recent said, is in the middle of nowhere...

Friday November 6, 2009 1:57 Valeria Bednarik

1:58

Valeria Bednarik:

must break supp or res with strength and volume to continue

Friday November 6, 2009 1:58 Valeria Bednarik

1:58

[Comment From DavidDavid: ]

gold is falling

Friday November 6, 2009 1:58 David

1:58

Valeria Bednarik:

Gold fell to 1087 and now back at 1090. Stocks halt the fall, that's why we don't see a dollar continuation

Friday November 6, 2009 1:58 Valeria Bednarik

1:58

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

but the stocks is falling fast i think eur/usd wil break 1.4800 mark

Friday November 6, 2009 1:58 macharia

1:59

Valeria Bednarik:

As I said yesterday, what we think is irrelevant... What I think is irrelevant.We need to see and still i don't see the break

Friday November 6, 2009 1:59 Valeria Bednarik

1:59

[Comment From mikemike: ]

I think the real selling pressure will come for EU and GBP after the stock maket opens @ 9:30am

Friday November 6, 2009 1:59 mike

1:59

Valeria Bednarik:

yeap.. in 30 minutes or so

Friday November 6, 2009 1:59 Valeria Bednarik

1:59

[Comment From snobtradersnobtrader: ]

valeria, have u played in Wall Street Warriors?

Friday November 6, 2009 1:59 snobtrader

1:59

Valeria Bednarik:

That's a game?? no my God! haha

Friday November 6, 2009 1:59 Valeria Bednarik

2:00

[Comment From azimazim: ]

Friday November 6, 2009 2:00 azim

2:00

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

now we buy euro or pound against usd or we sell it

Friday November 6, 2009 2:00 Guest

2:00

[Comment From josejose: ]

about eurusd, how about stop loss if i sell at 1.4800? guide please

Friday November 6, 2009 2:00 jose

2:00

Valeria Bednarik:

Should stay under 1.4830/50 area to keep falling.. If we regain that level, downside chances reduce a lot for me

Friday November 6, 2009 2:00 Valeria Bednarik

2:01

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Commodities are down but the correlation is weak, dont you thing, when eur/usd was at 1.506, gold was only 1055 xau

Friday November 6, 2009 2:01 Guest

2:01

Valeria Bednarik:

yes I do remember that... and despite gold kept rising, euro was unable to extend above 1.50.... that makes me thing of a probable bottom for dollar... yet I have no clear technical confirmation of that

Friday November 6, 2009 2:01 Valeria Bednarik

2:02

[Comment From InphiInphi: ]

it's like the gold hasn't taken a bias yet

Friday November 6, 2009 2:02 Inphi

2:02

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Friday November 6, 2009 2:02

2:02

Valeria Bednarik:

Gold is bullish... that' s the bias... as long as above 1070/75 will likely keep rising

Friday November 6, 2009 2:02 Valeria Bednarik

2:02

Valeria Bednarik:

Gold CORRECTION under 1070 ....reversal?? under 980

Friday November 6, 2009 2:02 Valeria Bednarik

2:03

[Comment From DavidDavid: ]

is gold bellow 1084 means reversal?

Friday November 6, 2009 2:03 David

2:03

[Comment From daviddavid: ]

hourly close beneath 62 ma, is this significant for you

Friday November 6, 2009 2:03 david

2:03

Valeria Bednarik:

In what pair?

Friday November 6, 2009 2:03 Valeria Bednarik

2:03

[Comment From mikemike: ]

lets wait til wall street opens and see!!!!

Friday November 6, 2009 2:03 mike

2:03

[Comment From travistravis: ]

ajnak sell

Friday November 6, 2009 2:03 travis

2:03

[Comment From InphiInphi: ]

gold is still range bound, not really taken a bias yet

Friday November 6, 2009 2:03 Inphi

2:04

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

i took short of gbp/usd at 1.6596 ad target is 1.6500....should i wait or i take the profit first???

Friday November 6, 2009 2:04 macharia

2:05

Valeria Bednarik:

Macharia, always protect your profits. and dont' get too gready... you can move your stop loss and secure a positive trade...

Friday November 6, 2009 2:05 Valeria Bednarik

2:05

[Comment From travistravis: ]

50pip retrace in gbp/jpy back to 149.25 nice place to sell again

Friday November 6, 2009 2:05 travis

2:05

[Comment From cmcdonoughcmcdonough: ]

what broker is the best to use

Friday November 6, 2009 2:05 cmcdonough

2:05

Valeria Bednarik:

Go for the big ones, in regulated countries.

Friday November 6, 2009 2:05 Valeria Bednarik

2:06

Valeria Bednarik:

And travis, i'm still not conviced of further GBP falls..

Friday November 6, 2009 2:06 Valeria Bednarik

2:06

[Comment From DavidDavid: ]

is gold bellow 1084 is considered reversal, Va?

Friday November 6, 2009 2:06 David

2:06

Valeria Bednarik:

No no... corrective, just corrective. Reversal only under 980 and we are far far away

Friday November 6, 2009 2:06 Valeria Bednarik

2:06

[Comment From ajnakajnak: ]

macharia u mean after breaking 1.4800 it will then go up?ohh ihave astop loss at that point.

Friday November 6, 2009 2:06 ajnak

2:06

[Comment From mikemike: ]

how far do you think USD/CAD could reach today????thanks

Friday November 6, 2009 2:06 mike

2:07

Valeria Bednarik:

Pair has quite a strong resistance level around 1.0770... if we move above there, next resistance in lime comes around 1.0830

Friday November 6, 2009 2:07 Valeria Bednarik

2:07

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Valeria I think euro/usd we will be under that level today considering even the stock index is negative on the pre market trading

Friday November 6, 2009 2:07 Guest

2:08

Valeria Bednarik:

Ok, I believe the pair should be at 1.35 as Euro zone economic conditions are awful. Again what i believe is for me useless in trading. I need to see.. other way is closer to betting that trading. Bu of course,, that's just me!

Friday November 6, 2009 2:08 Valeria Bednarik

2:08

[Comment From Dr. RobDr. Rob: ]

relevant majors took the hit but are not able to break supports, after a number of minutes reaction is subdued and in line with stocks. Oil and gold have more to go with the news from the middle east and no major points from the G20 to take things more seriously

Friday November 6, 2009 2:08 Dr. Rob

2:09

Valeria Bednarik:

Exactly, Dr Rob.

Friday November 6, 2009 2:09 Valeria Bednarik

2:09

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

what afect dollar most...gold or oil???

Friday November 6, 2009 2:09 macharia

2:09

Valeria Bednarik:

These days gold no doubts

Friday November 6, 2009 2:09 Valeria Bednarik

2:09

[Comment From oberober: ]

im short in eur usd almost forgott about the news untill it diped

Friday November 6, 2009 2:09 ober

2:09

Valeria Bednarik:

lucky you....

Friday November 6, 2009 2:09 Valeria Bednarik

2:09

[Comment From InphiInphi: ]

looks like corrections in majors is due to stop orders being hit

Friday November 6, 2009 2:09 Inphi

2:10

Valeria Bednarik:

Also gold is back at 1091.. unable to fall, while stocks remain quiet, waiting for the opening i believe, 20 minutes to go.

Friday November 6, 2009 2:10 Valeria Bednarik

2:10

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Hi Val, do you think the GBPUSD can break 1.6520 support ?

Friday November 6, 2009 2:10 Guest

2:11

Valeria Bednarik:

If US stocks break lower is posible yes.

Friday November 6, 2009 2:11 Valeria Bednarik

2:11

[Comment From ajnakajnak: ]

thanks travis

Friday November 6, 2009 2:11 ajnak

2:11

[Comment From blofeldblofeld: ]

eurusd i was short at 4821...what can i do?

Friday November 6, 2009 2:11 blofeld

2:11

Valeria Bednarik:

do you have a stop losss?

Friday November 6, 2009 2:11 Valeria Bednarik

2:11

[Comment From DavidDavid: ]

some ETF have sold gold yesterday, si gold cannot move above 1100, wha do you think?

Friday November 6, 2009 2:11 David

2:12

FXstreet.com:

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Friday November 6, 2009 2:12 FXstreet.com

2:12

Valeria Bednarik:

is too close and too strong still, 1093 again... spikes to the downside are shorlived and limited... I think there is a chance of reaching that zone still

Friday November 6, 2009 2:12 Valeria Bednarik

2:12

[Comment From JavierJavier: ]

Hi, valeria how do you see the move of EUR USD?

Friday November 6, 2009 2:12 Javier

2:13

Valeria Bednarik:

back up! almost at pre report level. Seems no dollar strength despite data

Friday November 6, 2009 2:13 Valeria Bednarik

2:14

[Comment From travistravis: ]

the pound really should/could of sold last night/mornign too

Friday November 6, 2009 2:14 travis

2:14

[Comment From dorindorin: ]

gbp/usd now?

Friday November 6, 2009 2:14 dorin

2:15

Valeria Bednarik:

moving to test 1.6600 again

Friday November 6, 2009 2:15 Valeria Bednarik

2:15

[Comment From JimJim: ]

what is the level for GBP/JPY ?

Friday November 6, 2009 2:15 Jim

2:15

Valeria Bednarik:

Support strong at 148.60. Resistance at 151.60

Friday November 6, 2009 2:15 Valeria Bednarik

2:15

[Comment From daviddavid: ]

sorry, 62 ma on eur/usd and gbp usd, actually, pound was below, eur/usd above!!

Friday November 6, 2009 2:15 david

2:16

Valeria Bednarik:

yep they come back.

Friday November 6, 2009 2:16 Valeria Bednarik

2:16

[Comment From yasir kidwaiyasir kidwai: ]

valeria now its almost 40 min gone after the data now what u think about euro

Friday November 6, 2009 2:16 yasir kidwai

2:16

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Friday November 6, 2009 2:16

2:16

Valeria Bednarik:

That dollar remains too weak to regain the upside, even despitefalling stocks

Friday November 6, 2009 2:16 Valeria Bednarik

2:16

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

no i don say so ajnak ifact that is my prayer for the market to go lower...unfortunate market has nothing to do with prayers...its a fact n following the trend

Friday November 6, 2009 2:16 macharia

2:17

[Comment From travistravis: ]

10.2% , 0,4% increase thats pretty big right

Friday November 6, 2009 2:17 travis

2:17

Valeria Bednarik:

It is.. yes

Friday November 6, 2009 2:17 Valeria Bednarik

2:17

[Comment From kenekene: ]

Since GU was over bought , now should give bears a chance to play the field

Friday November 6, 2009 2:17 kene

2:18

Valeria Bednarik:

yes, but stilll we have no clear breaks market is back at pre report levels. except for yen that keeps running higher.

Friday November 6, 2009 2:18 Valeria Bednarik

2:18

[Comment From adiadi: ]

so wat u guys thinkin abt

Friday November 6, 2009 2:18 adi

2:18

[Comment From adiadi: ]

lets make a trade together

Friday November 6, 2009 2:18 adi

2:18

[Comment From zachzach: ]

hi Ober..lucky bastard!!:) lucky u bro!

Friday November 6, 2009 2:18 zach

2:18

[Comment From INDIA ArvindINDIA Arvind: ]

EURUSD going UP 1.48600 so will hit 1.49000 ? please let me know cearly plz

Friday November 6, 2009 2:18 INDIA Arvind

2:20

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

If you are new to trading. Don't ask Valeria where to get in or out. Ask her why she thinks a level should hold. In fact, if you are not sure what to do, FXStreet has many great video's to give you an idea. Then due some sim trading to help you develop a good plan, because most importantly, screen time is the best teacher. Don't risk your hard earned money making uninformed guesses.

Friday November 6, 2009 2:20 Guest

2:20

Valeria Bednarik:

Tks for answering for me

Friday November 6, 2009 2:20 Valeria Bednarik

2:20

[Comment From ngugingugi: ]

wha most affect yen

Friday November 6, 2009 2:20 ngugi

2:21

Valeria Bednarik:

Because Japanese yen is attached to S&P behaviour... with falling stocks, pair tends to fall

Friday November 6, 2009 2:21 Valeria Bednarik

2:21

[Comment From yasir kidwaiyasir kidwai: ]

i am short at 4825 with no stoploss

Friday November 6, 2009 2:21 yasir kidwai

2:22

Valeria Bednarik:

That's never a good idea... a trade has to have stop and limit. always. don't risk your money in 1 trade

Friday November 6, 2009 2:22 Valeria Bednarik

2:22

[Comment From juliossjulioss: ]

What do you think about the Eur/usd? it is further falls?

Friday November 6, 2009 2:22 julioss

2:23

Valeria Bednarik:

I think it will depend on stocks behaviour.. if stocks fall at the opening and keep falling, seems chances increase

Friday November 6, 2009 2:23 Valeria Bednarik

2:23

[Comment From Dr. RobDr. Rob: ]

Val, while fundementals like these have their role in driving markets, how do you think they affect technicals when itcomes to trend lines? If we were to take these sporradic and iratic spikes due to hese events won't the technicals be much more pleasure to read?

Friday November 6, 2009 2:23 Dr. Rob

2:24

Valeria Bednarik:

I do believe that rates and payrolls, are the most noisy reports we have in forex market... and they tend to distort a bit technicals. That's why i rther wait till things set over... and ignore this first spikes.

Friday November 6, 2009 2:24 Valeria Bednarik

2:25

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

what are ua expectation on dollar after wallstreet is open???

Friday November 6, 2009 2:25 macharia

2:25

FXstreet.com:

Sorry We have just a few minutes left. If you have any questions , Please do not hesitate to ask Valerica.

Friday November 6, 2009 2:25 FXstreet.com

2:25

Valeria Bednarik:

If wall street falls, dollar should gain.. and the opposite

Friday November 6, 2009 2:25 Valeria Bednarik

2:25

[Comment From guzdaguzda: ]

What do you think about EUR/USD in long term?

Friday November 6, 2009 2:25 guzda

2:27

Valeria Bednarik:

Well, for me as told above we may have seen a bottom at the 1.506 area agaisnt euro, but is still not confirmed. maybe under 1.4600 we get our first confirmation of a trend reversal, yet if we end the week above 1.4900, I do believe that upside likely to extend this year.

Friday November 6, 2009 2:27 Valeria Bednarik

2:27

[Comment From DavidDavid: ]

the 1100 is a strong level, a channel level for a this year, gold rarely breaks that level. In 30 years, only two or three times gold reak channel level

Friday November 6, 2009 2:27 David

2:27

Valeria Bednarik:

yes.. that's why it should correct... still we are barely 5 dollars away from that zone and with no signs of giving up

Friday November 6, 2009 2:27 Valeria Bednarik

2:28

FXstreet.com:

Sorry we are short of time today, I have to wrap up the session.

Friday November 6, 2009 2:28 FXstreet.com

2:28

FXstreet.com:

Thank you Valeria for the great market view!... and every one who has joined the session today.I have had a great time with you.

Friday November 6, 2009 2:28 FXstreet.com

2:29

FXstreet.com:

Valerica,, Please give us a final word.

Friday November 6, 2009 2:29 FXstreet.com

2:29

Valeria Bednarik:

Tks you all for being here! Sorry we are over, I know there are a lot of unanswered questions. Stocks are about to open, so be carefull with that.

Friday November 6, 2009 2:29 Valeria Bednarik

2:30

FXstreet.com:

Alright evey one,, Thank you for coming today!. I hope to see you all in the next live coverage. Have a nice weekend!. bye for now.

Friday November 6, 2009 2:30 FXstreet.com

2:30

Valeria Bednarik:

Data was really bad, and should trigger some risk aversion across the markets, let's see how majors end the week to confirm further dollars destiny! Good luck to all

Friday November 6, 2009 2:30 Valeria Bednarik

2:30

Valeria Bednarik:

Tks!

Friday November 6, 2009 2:30 Valeria Bednarik

2:30

[Comment From KBroseKBrose: ]

yes many thanks!

Friday November 6, 2009 2:30 KBrose

2:30

FXstreet.com:

Today’s sponsor is FXCM.

Friday November 6, 2009 2:30 FXstreet.com

2:30

FXstreet.com:

Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Friday November 6, 2009 2:30 FXstreet.com

2:31

FXstreet.com:

Friday November 6, 2009 2:31 FXstreet.com

2:31

[Comment From Dr. RobDr. Rob: ]

Thank you FXstreet for this live coverage, and Val it is always so nice to have you on guiding with a smile ... thank you so much

Friday November 6, 2009 2:31 Dr. Rob

2:31

Continue reading "Non-Farm Payrolls Release Live Coverage " »

BoE and ECB Interest Rates Decision with Valeria Bednarik

(11/05/2009)

11:43

FXstreet.com:

Information and opinions contained in this live coverage session are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:43 FXstreet.com

11:45

FXstreet.com:

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:45 FXstreet.com

11:45

FXstreet.com:

Today’s sponsor is FXCM.

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:45 FXstreet.com

11:46

FXstreet.com:

Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's BoE and ECB Interest Rates Decisions Live Coverage will start shortly. I am really pleased to introduce Valeria Bednarik who is going to take part in this live event today as a co-presenter. She will be giving us a direct picture fo the market status.

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:46 FXstreet.com

11:46

FXstreet.com:

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:46 FXstreet.com

11:47

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi everybody and welcome! as always is a pleasure to be here with you again. in less than 15 minutes BOE will make it's stance regarding monetary policy. Rates are expected unchanged, yet there has been lot's of especulations about an extension of QE for 25 billion pounds. That will be today's key for GBP.

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:47 Valeria Bednarik

11:47

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Thursday November 5, 2009 11:47

11:49

Valeria Bednarik:

I believe an extension of QE likely to drag Pound to the downside, despite this week fundamental readings had been quite good in average, and despite market sentiment. Key support lies at the 1.4770 area.
On contrary, if they dont extend QE GBP likely to retest 1.6600 area

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:49 Valeria Bednarik

11:49

[Comment From saviosavio: ]

will gbp/usd go down?

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:49 savio

11:50

Will the BoE cut the bench mark interest rate?
Yes, the BoE will cut it by 25bps to 0.25%.

( 7% )

Yes the BoE will cut it by 50bps to Zero.

( 0% )

No, the BoE will rather hold the ongoing rate.

( 79% )

No, the BoE will rather hike it by 25bps.

( 0% )

No, the BoE will rather hike it by 50bps.

( 14% )

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:50

11:50

[Comment From rererere: ]

what your predict gbp/usd?

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:50 rere

11:51

Valeria Bednarik:

Well we have a huge time lag, sorry for that! yet as commented above, I beleive you have your answer right?

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:51 Valeria Bednarik

11:51

[Comment From zaphyzaphy: ]

Hi Val! 25b GBP of QE...let's see how much it is going to weight the pound down :)!...I mean southwards

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:51 zaphy

11:51

Valeria Bednarik:

Exactly Zaphy! if is real remember is just speculation for now

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:51 Valeria Bednarik

11:52

[Comment From praomd patilpraomd patil: ]

is there any update on interest rates decision by Boe and Ecb

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:52 praomd patil

11:52

Valeria Bednarik:

Not yer praomd, we need to wait a bit more

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:52 Valeria Bednarik

11:52

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

hi valeria..welcome n pressure to have u 2day

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:52 macharia

11:52

Valeria Bednarik:

And you will see me back tomorrow! and Tks

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:52 Valeria Bednarik

11:52

[Comment From SimonSimon: ]

Honestly, where do you see EUR-GBP in 3 months?

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:52 Simon

11:53

Valeria Bednarik:

I believe closer to 0.85 no much distance from here

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:53 Valeria Bednarik

11:53

[Comment From mafacifamafacifa: ]

so what would b the reaction for GBP if QE +50bl?

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:53 mafacifa

11:53

Valeria Bednarik:

Well, Pound should fall harder if they extend QE above market expectations.,,,let's see

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:53 Valeria Bednarik

11:53

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

what if the rates are held?

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:53 Guest

11:53

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Thursday November 5, 2009 11:53

11:53

Valeria Bednarik:

Rates likely to be held in both economies. so no surprises there, no market reactions

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:53 Valeria Bednarik

11:53

[Comment From mirzamirza: ]

what about eur/jpy ?

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:53 mirza

11:54

Valeria Bednarik:

Pair is fighting around a very strong zone, 134.00/ 134.40. If we can clearly break above the last, I expect further rises there today

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:54 Valeria Bednarik

11:54

[Comment From stalinstalin: ]

Yes, the BoE will cut it by 25bps to 0.25%. ( 0% )

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:54 stalin

11:54

Valeria Bednarik:

Ok is a chance... let's see that will also be negative for Pound,

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:54 Valeria Bednarik

11:54

[Comment From Arun KandyalArun Kandyal: ]

Hi Val What could be the key levels to watch for GBP thx.

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:54 Arun Kandyal

11:55

Valeria Bednarik:

1.6470, 1.6420 1.6380 to the downside. 1.6560 1.6600 1.6640 to the upside

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:55 Valeria Bednarik

11:55

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

pls ua views on eur/usd

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:55 macharia

11:56

Valeria Bednarik:

Eur/Usd likely to remain arround current levels, till Trichet speech. needs to over come clearly 1.4865 to extend the upside, while under 1.4800 we could see it fall

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:56 Valeria Bednarik

11:56

[Comment From zaphyzaphy: ]

Do you see the EUR moving substantially (say 100pips in any direction) as a consequence of the BoE announcement?

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:56 zaphy

11:57

Valeria Bednarik:

Nop, not with BOE, later maybe, but remember we have seen quite dissappointing movements lately in the releases of rates, and tomorrow we have US Nonfarm Payrolls that will made investors be a bit more conservative than usual, i expect

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:57 Valeria Bednarik

11:57

[Comment From RjteshRjtesh: ]

EUR / USD to buy ????????

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:57 Rjtesh

11:58

Valeria Bednarik:

I don't like it here and now. Until Trichet speech is not over.. we are going to see up and down spikes.

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:58 Valeria Bednarik

11:58

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

valeria if BOE will rather hold the ongoing rate, how about this impact for stock in europe/london/america ?

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:58 Guest

11:58

Valeria Bednarik:

I don't think rates will have an effect. Effects will come form QE not rates. American stocks won't be affected, london could fall yes

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:58 Valeria Bednarik

11:59

[Comment From zaphyzaphy: ]

So you are expecting a rise in NFP? The ADP data was more or less (3k) as predicted, slight improvement

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:59 zaphy

11:59

Valeria Bednarik:

I'm not expecting anything for tomorrow, I mean we have less activity in market, less volume usually before such report

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:59 Valeria Bednarik

11:59

Valeria Bednarik:

ok pound is falling big!

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:59 Valeria Bednarik

11:59

Valeria Bednarik:

let's check the news

Thursday November 5, 2009 11:59 Valeria Bednarik

12:00

Valeria Bednarik:

rates unchanged at 0.50

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:00 Valeria Bednarik

12:00

FXstreet.com:

The BoE has decided to hold the ongoing interest rates at 0.50%

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:00 FXstreet.com

12:00

Valeria Bednarik:

OK! AND extendend QE? to 200 billon, pound jumped to 1.6600 in 1 spike

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:00 Valeria Bednarik

12:01

[Comment From JOSHJOSH: ]

BOE says weaker pound is required for balancing . can you elaborate as England does not depend on exports like say germany etc

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:01 JOSH

12:01

FXstreet.com:

QE increases 200 B from 175 B

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:01 FXstreet.com

12:02

Valeria Bednarik:

A weaker currency is needed everywhere ... will accelerate economic growth.

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:02 Valeria Bednarik

12:02

[Comment From lizaliza: ]

Hi Val, what you really mean for euro/usd,where it can reach by the end of this year?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:02 liza

12:02

FXstreet.com:

Here you can have a look at the BoE official site
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/news/2009/081.htm

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:02 FXstreet.com

12:03

Valeria Bednarik:

If i could be 100% sure about that..... I would love to share my view. The fact is that Iseeit overvaluated, and should be under 1.40. But trend speculation is telling different. so What can I say?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:03 Valeria Bednarik

12:03

[Comment From KnightRiderKnightRider: ]

Hi Valerie, will these 2 rate decisions affect CHFJPY?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:03 KnightRider

12:03

Valeria Bednarik:

Not as muchs as eur or Gbp crosses but a bit yes, as will affect dollar and then all crosses

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:03 Valeria Bednarik

12:03

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Thursday November 5, 2009 12:03

12:04

Valeria Bednarik:

Gbp rebounded at 1.6600, yet remains bullish after the extension, against my expectations. let's see how things develop in the next 15 minutes

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:04 Valeria Bednarik

12:04

[Comment From kelvinkelvin: ]

will there ever be a chance that Euro with fall to 1.35 to the dollar??

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:04 kelvin

12:04

FXstreet.com:

The BoE has decided to hold the ongoing interest rates at 0.50% QE increases 200 B from 175 B

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:04 FXstreet.com

12:04

Valeria Bednarik:

Of course...all that goes up comes down... je... but when? i don't know.

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:04 Valeria Bednarik

12:05

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

has there bee any talk lately of Eur QE? lots of talk of british QE but the Euro seems to have fallen of the radar screeen but the fundamental econ data and the banks seem to be weak lately

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:05 Guest

12:05

Valeria Bednarik:

Well, that's one of the main reasons i consider Euro overvaluated, yet there has been no talking no.

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:05 Valeria Bednarik

12:05

[Comment From India ArvindIndia Arvind: ]

will EURUSD need buy or sell

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:05 India Arvind

12:08

Valeria Bednarik:

No decisions here, please, wait for a break under 1.4810, even better under 1.4770 or above 1.4860

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:08 Valeria Bednarik

12:08

[Comment From EmmanuelEmmanuel: ]

why is the movement so volcanic about now

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:08 Emmanuel

12:08

Valeria Bednarik:

Because of the extension of QE, yet I was expecting the contrarian reaction to be honest!

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:08 Valeria Bednarik

12:08

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

But a strong Euro at the moment is helping the euro zone with fuel prices being high. But I agree it should come down to parity next year

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:08 Guest

12:09

Valeria Bednarik:

Yes it is a bit.. fut macro reports keep coming worst and worst... they won´t affect market at the moment, but will sooner or later

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:09 Valeria Bednarik

12:09

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

what about eur/usd in short therm?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:09 Guest

12:09

Valeria Bednarik:

You have the answer above right? Sorry for the laggggg

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:09 Valeria Bednarik

12:09

Valeria Bednarik:

Gbp is about to break 1.6600, next resistance comes at 1.6640 highs

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:09 Valeria Bednarik

12:10

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

was this ua expectation as how the gbp is reacting???bulish sfter q2 increas???

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:10 macharia

12:10

Valeria Bednarik:

I was not

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:10 Valeria Bednarik

12:10

[Comment From MikeMike: ]

Why is GBP/USD always much more volatile compared to the other majors?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:10 Mike

12:11

Valeria Bednarik:

Good question! I believe because is a more technical pair, and of course one of the most traded these days

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:11 Valeria Bednarik

12:11

[Comment From zaphyzaphy: ]

Precisely. Last time the BoE extended the QE the GBP fell. Damn markets...they are so unpredictable :)!

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:11 zaphy

12:12

Valeria Bednarik:

yes well, the pair is unable to break above 1.6600...at least yet. That is telling as something, thus is consolidating very close to that level, to call for a downside corrective movement now

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:12 Valeria Bednarik

12:12

[Comment From roccorocco: ]

british qe goes up and pound is rising... i see yesterday and today are going to interesting (whacked)

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:12 rocco

12:13

Valeria Bednarik:

I remeber a year ago or so, when UK cut rates, we saw GBP jumping 150 pips to the upside, only to lose 300 the next day.... this things happen in market, that's why I don't ever never get a posicion BEFORE this reports

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:13 Valeria Bednarik

12:14

[Comment From machariamacharia: ]

increasing 2Q according to u is positive for the economy or negative???

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:14 macharia

12:14

Valeria Bednarik:

For me is negative. is almost the same as printing money... no good at the end

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:14 Valeria Bednarik

12:14

[Comment From India ArvindIndia Arvind: ]

after BoE and ECB decision finish then .....May I buy EURUSD ?? Please Let me Know if yes so why and if not so why ?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:14 India Arvind

12:15

Valeria Bednarik:

I after all the decisions and calm, pair consolidates above 1.4860 or close to yesterday's high, could be a good trade. But I don't know what will happen in 1 hour.

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:15 Valeria Bednarik

12:15

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

So we bying on FACT now?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:15 Guest

12:16

Valeria Bednarik:

That's why i like to do. But what is for you the FACTnow? that GBP rose ok... does it break above 1.6600? does it extended the rally? is giving signs of continuation?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:16 Valeria Bednarik

12:17

[Comment From nagallanagalla: ]

can we expect 74.93 area in USDINDEX remain the low untill q4 end ?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:17 nagalla

12:17

Valeria Bednarik:

not really sure about that. Dollar is being hit hardly. these days, but one thing i'm sure: tomorrow we will have better definitions for the midterm with the week close after NFP

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:17 Valeria Bednarik

12:17

[Comment From NanaKNanaK: ]

IMO, GBP/USD will fall after the stop hunts are over. 1.63 target anyone?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:17 NanaK

12:18

FXstreet.com:

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Thursday November 5, 2009 12:18 FXstreet.com

12:18

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Thursday November 5, 2009 12:18

12:18

Valeria Bednarik:

If the pair is unable to break higher, well is a chance yet seems a bit too much target for today, and we keep consolidating close to 1.6600

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:18 Valeria Bednarik

12:18

[Comment From KnightRiderKnightRider: ]

Why is GBP rallying on bad news (extending QE) this reminds me when the Dollar rallys on bad news too

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:18 KnightRider

12:20

Valeria Bednarik:

Market sometimes, surprises us. Yet when dollar rallied on bad news was based on speculation, and market sentiment. And when things turned around, they did badly. We could expect that, but don't know when

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:20 Valeria Bednarik

12:20

[Comment From MikeMike: ]

It's funny because in some instances where the other majors fell against the USD, the GBP managed to stay reasonably ok, even with somewhat sketchy data. Not sure what the appeal with the GBP is, considering it's low interest yield compared to AUD...

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:20 Mike

12:21

Valeria Bednarik:

Stocls are rising, gold is rising, sentiment is supporting dollar bears

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:21 Valeria Bednarik

12:21

[Comment From roccorocco: ]

british qe going up should be good for the stock market... sugar for the bees

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:21 rocco

12:21

Valeria Bednarik:

Exactly Rocco

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:21 Valeria Bednarik

12:21

[Comment From TayoTayo: ]

Direction of cable is bonkers. I was expecting it to tank

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:21 Tayo

12:21

Valeria Bednarik:

Me too yet is breaking higher. watch for next resistance at 1.6640 highs

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:21 Valeria Bednarik

12:21

[Comment From MikeMike: ]

heh I remember not too long ago when they didn't expand QE and GBP shot up from 1.63xx to 1.67xx, only to drop all the way down to 1.579x

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:21 Mike

12:22

Valeria Bednarik:

exaclty Mike... next days

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:22 Valeria Bednarik

12:22

[Comment From KnightRiderKnightRider: ]

guys, you dont need to know what happens next to make money, the possibilities of what could happen next are endless

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:22 KnightRider

12:23

Valeria Bednarik:

you are right about that

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:23 Valeria Bednarik

12:24

FXstreet.com:

I would like to hear your opinion about the ECB, vote the poll

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:24 FXstreet.com

12:24

[Comment From PedroPedro: ]

Hi Valeria, do U think is a good moment to enter shor for Scalping GBP/USD?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:24 Pedro

12:24

Will the ECB hike the interest rates?
Yes, the ECB will rather hike it by 25bps

( 8% )

Yes, the ECB will rather hike it by 50bps

( 0% )

Yes, on an aggressive hike by more than 75bps.

( 0% )

No, the ECB will rather hold the ongoing rate.

( 83% )

No, the ECB will cut it by 25bps

( 8% )

No, the ECB will cut it by 50bps

( 3% )

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:24

12:25

Valeria Bednarik:

Not quite clear at this point.... still consolidating wait a bit

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:25 Valeria Bednarik

12:25

[Comment From KnightRiderKnightRider: ]

Valerie, if the pound doesn't drop today, or tomorrow, whats your opinion on Cable testing Weekly MA100 @ 1.7150?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:25 KnightRider

12:25

Valeria Bednarik:

If we close the day, or better the week above 1.6700 i see good chances of an upside extension

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:25 Valeria Bednarik

12:25

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

pound will go to above then 1.67 or no

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:25 Guest

12:26

Valeria Bednarik:

My husband things i'm a which.... but i don't have any way to predict that... ;)

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:26 Valeria Bednarik

12:26

[Comment From India ArvindIndia Arvind: ]

Thankx for good answer ....But One more Things.......When Finish This Boe and ECB Interest Rate ...meeting..how many more minute ..

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:26 India Arvind

12:26

Valeria Bednarik:

I usually wait 2 15 minutes candles

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:26 Valeria Bednarik

12:27

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

the news isnt really that bad

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:27 Guest

12:27

[Comment From lizaliza: ]

Val,what do you mean for really-Is the ex change money market a science in its self with its own rules and logic,or is a funny trick, or smth like a play?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:27 liza

12:28

Valeria Bednarik:

Liza, I do believe in technical analysis, and I follow it very strongly.BUT rates and payrolls, are reports that make BIG NOISE in my technicals... that's why I rather wait after is all set and done to see my technicals back to normal and trade!

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:28 Valeria Bednarik

12:29

[Comment From samisami: ]

what your view on short term for cable, either to upside or downside?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:29 sami

12:29

[Comment From travistravis: ]

the news isnt so bad

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:29 travis

12:29

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

gbp will rise then 1.67

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:29 Guest

12:29

Valeria Bednarik:

well we are as expected, approaching to 1.6640

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:29 Valeria Bednarik

12:29

[Comment From travistravis: ]

interest rates rise is australia aud goes down

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:29 travis

12:30

Valeria Bednarik:

not really down we are still 2 cents for the yearly high, 32 from the year low.... with gold at 1090, Aud won't fall easily as Australia is the 3rd major gold producer

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:30 Valeria Bednarik

12:30

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

GBP is rallying because a lot of uncertainty has been removed, as thhe market feared a raise of 50 billion gbp

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:30 Guest

12:30

Valeria Bednarik:

Could be an explanation yes.

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:30 Valeria Bednarik

12:30

[Comment From travistravis: ]

who are the players doing the buying

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:30 travis

12:30

Valeria Bednarik:

Not me trully

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:30 Valeria Bednarik

12:30

[Comment From MikeMike: ]

well I think with cable it's because the market was expecting an increase of 50, so anything below that is a bonus

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:30 Mike

12:31

[Comment From KnightRiderKnightRider: ]

Is extended QE good for Australia?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:31 KnightRider

12:31

Valeria Bednarik:

Nop Australia is the only economy showing real signs of improvement... that's why they rise rates, and with gold up, Aud is being favor

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:31 Valeria Bednarik

12:31

[Comment From NaserNaser: ]

hi all

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:31 Naser

12:31

[Comment From zachzach: ]

I agree with u, knightrider..

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:31 zach

12:32

[Comment From Dr. RobDr. Rob: ]

The possibilities of what could happen next are not endless. They are up, down or sideways, but the reasons behind each of these are endless and certainly unpredictable

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:32 Dr. Rob

12:32

Valeria Bednarik:

Tks Dr Rob! I couldn't said it better...

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:32 Valeria Bednarik

12:32

[Comment From TayoTayo: ]

u have to be real brave to scalp now.

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:32 Tayo

12:33

[Comment From zaphyzaphy: ]

sort of...but can you do it consistently???

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:33 zaphy

12:33

Valeria Bednarik:

Sorry Zaphy we have huge delay, and you are hundreds and me just one.. What are you asking about?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:33 Valeria Bednarik

12:33

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Valeria, what is your take on the gold prices in the nearest future, especially in the wake of rate decisions?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:33 Guest

12:34

Valeria Bednarik:

As well as above 1070, bullsih to 1100/30. Under 1070 some downside correction maybe, yet a trend change is far far away under 982 or so

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:34 Valeria Bednarik

12:34

[Comment From intelMintelM: ]

yup

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:34 intelM

12:34

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Valeria , what do you think the ecb will do today ?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:34 Guest

12:34

Valeria Bednarik:

Nothing new... live rates unchanged talk about inflation worries, and ignore current deflation an economic conditions, and macro reports

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:34 Valeria Bednarik

12:35

[Comment From big moneybig money: ]

what amount of trade move the gbp 100pips during the news??? 100B?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:35 big money

12:35

Valeria Bednarik:

You are a bit short there... take a look in Wikipedia HOW MUCH forex moves a day: hundreds of trillions!

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:35 Valeria Bednarik

12:35

[Comment From travistravis: ]

with the pound sliding through asia session the players set up the rise for the news

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:35 travis

12:36

[Comment From TayoTayo: ]

Does it make sense to wait an hour now to see if we get a close above 1.6600 then b4 taking a position

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:36 Tayo

12:37

Valeria Bednarik:

Of course it does...at least for me... market has been here the last 6 years for me, and I don't expect it to end forever tomorrow right? I rather lose an hour than 1 cent...

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:37 Valeria Bednarik

12:37

[Comment From aliali: ]

where do u see cable heading after 6640? thanks

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:37 ali

12:37

Valeria Bednarik:

1.6690/1.6700

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:37 Valeria Bednarik

12:37

[Comment From roccorocco: ]

the aud/jpy is tracking real nice tot he s&p 500 without having to figure out wether the pound should be going down on qe or up with the equity markets... just a thought to the community

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:37 rocco

12:37

Valeria Bednarik:

Tks Rocco!

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:37 Valeria Bednarik

12:37

[Comment From yasir kidwaiyasir kidwai: ]

hi valeria how are you

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:37 yasir kidwai

12:37

Valeria Bednarik:

Hi Yasir great tks!

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:37 Valeria Bednarik

12:37

[Comment From KnightRiderKnightRider: ]

Most of the analysis you should do is not technical, but mental

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:37 KnightRider

12:38

Valeria Bednarik:

Also! we must know our own weakness and strength and made a plan and alot of work before really start trading for a living

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:38 Valeria Bednarik

12:38

[Comment From yasir kidwaiyasir kidwai: ]

valeria what you think about gbp/usd now

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:38 yasir kidwai

12:39

Valeria Bednarik:

Settle above 1.660, going to 1.6640, maybe 1.6700 later with ECB stocks remain strongly bullish and so does gold, supporting more dollar loses

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:39 Valeria Bednarik

12:39

[Comment From travistravis: ]

well i have just watched gbp/jpy go up 130pips - i've been waiting to go short

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:39 travis

12:39

Valeria Bednarik:

ok wait a bit more

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:39 Valeria Bednarik

12:39

[Comment From zaphyzaphy: ]

someone was saying that you don't need to know why you can still make money, and I doubt if it can be done consistently.

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:39 zaphy

12:40

Valeria Bednarik:

It can... just needs a lot of work

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:40 Valeria Bednarik

12:40

[Comment From KnightRiderKnightRider: ]

I agree, up/down/sideways, though the combinations are numerous, just like EW, theres always more than 1 EW count..

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:40 KnightRider

12:40

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

valeria eur/usd in 1.4870 now. may be eur/usd strong after ecb conferences ?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:40 Guest

12:40

Valeria Bednarik:

seems so yes... watch for the 1.4925 level. Above that, pair should accelerate to the upside

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:40 Valeria Bednarik

12:40

[Comment From YlberYlber: ]

Hi Valeria, what are your main technical instruments?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:40 Ylber

12:41

Valeria Bednarik:

depend on each pair. but always fibos, trend lines 20 SMA and a couple of long term EMAS

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:41 Valeria Bednarik

12:41

[Comment From BMBM: ]

why a spike before news? euro

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:41 BM

12:41

Valeria Bednarik:

because rising stocks and gold has been like this since 3 months ago

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:41 Valeria Bednarik

12:42

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Do you think it's a good time to enter short from technical perspective Valeria?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:42 Guest

12:43

Valeria Bednarik:

We have some signs of exhaustion in smaller time frames, but we have ECB in a couple of minutes, and TRICHETTT later...

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:43 Valeria Bednarik

12:43

[Comment From mrcablemrcable: ]

on a macro scale the BOE are the only ones increasing QE, this should not bode well for gbp. however, long positioning from yesterday has to push it up for a profit and then get out. I do not see why anyone would want to be long cable above 1.66 and hold it for the nfp

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:43 mrcable

12:43

Valeria Bednarik:

Tksd and welcome Mrcable.

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:43 Valeria Bednarik

12:43

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

what about the ecb dicision euro will rose or fall

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:43 Guest

12:44

Valeria Bednarik:

At curernt levels, seems we are going up.

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:44 Valeria Bednarik

12:44

[Comment From mrcablemrcable: ]

net net, to cut all the confusion out of everything, i would suppose the market will focus on risk on/risk off , equivalent to usd sell or buy.

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:44 mrcable

12:44

Valeria Bednarik:

yes it has been like that for a long time and will likley remain like that for the rest of the year

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:44 Valeria Bednarik

12:44

[Comment From heruheru: ]

thanks valeria.... may i can get your email...?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:44 heru

12:45

Valeria Bednarik:

yes, valbednarik@gmail.com

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:45 Valeria Bednarik

12:45

[Comment From intelMintelM: ]

Goldies jumped before everyone else, whether they got it right is another question

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:45 intelM

12:45

FXstreet.com:

ECB left the rates unchanged!

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:45 FXstreet.com

12:46

Valeria Bednarik:

well as comment earlier, we are moving on sentiment, and speculation. i don't stop to think if they are right or wrong.. just watch market and act in consequence

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:46 Valeria Bednarik

12:46

Valeria Bednarik:

No big reaction still, usually market waits for Trichet speech. Let's see what happens today

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:46 Valeria Bednarik

12:46

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Hi Valeria, do you think gbp/usd can really stand above 1.66?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:46 Guest

12:47

Valeria Bednarik:

I don't believe it no.. but what I believe does not really matter. Charts are what do matter

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:47 Valeria Bednarik

12:47

[Comment From oberober: ]

better to wait and see

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:47 ober

12:47

[Comment From AnatoliAnatoli: ]

What does your technical analysis hold for CAD short term future, considering its recent drop?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:47 Anatoli

12:48

Valeria Bednarik:

Cad could extend the fall as oil prices keep pushing higher. Could rise to 85/ a barrel, sending Cad even higher.

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:48 Valeria Bednarik

12:48

FXstreet.com:

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Thursday November 5, 2009 12:48 FXstreet.com

12:48

[Ad]	FXCM Micro View

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:48

12:48

Valeria Bednarik:

Eur, remains steady....
yet pushing a bit higher.

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:48 Valeria Bednarik

12:48

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

After yesterday's Fed's Dovish remarks USD is a strong sell

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:48 Guest

12:48

[Comment From MKMK: ]

USD WILL GO UP OR DOWN ?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:48 MK

12:50

Valeria Bednarik:

Dollar is bearish no doubts. has been for long. Still what i do believe is that the rest of the economies are not in such good shape to see euro above 1.50. Again what i believe is useless for trading.

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:50 Valeria Bednarik

12:50

[Comment From oberober: ]

when is trichet speach

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:50 ober

12:50

Valeria Bednarik:

Starting in 10 minutes or so...

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:50 Valeria Bednarik

12:50

Valeria Bednarik:

Usually, evey comment is a spike...up or down

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:50 Valeria Bednarik

12:50

[Comment From KnightRiderKnightRider: ]

Valerie, youre the best, thanks for today!

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:50 KnightRider

12:50

Valeria Bednarik:

Tks you for that comment!

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:50 Valeria Bednarik

12:50

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

USD basket will re-test 75 levels shortly

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:50 Guest

12:51

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

oficial rates....unchanged...whats are ua views on eur/usd snce the result are out???or wi wait speech first

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:51 Guest

12:51

[Comment From pankajpankaj: ]

after the intrest news where u see the gbp-usd or euro -usd croses

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:51 pankaj

12:52

Valeria Bednarik:

Both pairs are retreating a bit.. for Euro, I will wait till Trichet is over...for Gbp I believe i already made a clear opinion

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:52 Valeria Bednarik

12:52

[Comment From India ArvindIndia Arvind: ]

i need more news from EURUSD ....Please Valeria Bendnarik

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:52 India Arvind

12:53

Valeria Bednarik:

More info? You want me to trade for you? and give you entry points? I won't trade the pair till speech is over, and only sell under 1.4770 or buy above 1.4925.. that's what I will do

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:53 Valeria Bednarik

12:53

[Comment From AshishAshish: ]

Euro will re-test 1.5066

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:53 Ashish

12:53

[Comment From oberober: ]

thanks

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:53 ober

12:53

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Where do you see EUR/JPY?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:53 Guest

12:53

Valeria Bednarik:

If it holds above 134.40, close to 135.30 or so

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:53 Valeria Bednarik

12:54

[Comment From oberober: ]

does anyone trade the news or

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:54 ober

12:54

[Comment From AshishAshish: ]

euro & gbp are slightly cooling off, use that to build high leverage long positions versus Dollar

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:54 Ashish

12:54

Valeria Bednarik:

yes, seems so.

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:54 Valeria Bednarik

12:54

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

pound to stengthen against euro... down to eur/gbp 0.88 by end of week

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:54 Guest

12:55

Valeria Bednarik:

Pair is bearish yes under 0.8910 i see more downside there

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:55 Valeria Bednarik

12:55

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Valeria, How do you think bad employment numbers for u.s will affect the usd today and tomorow ?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:55 Guest

12:56

Valeria Bednarik:

Usually, bad Dollar news, trigger stocks falls, and dollar wins.. I do expect the situation to repeat.

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:56 Valeria Bednarik

12:56

[Comment From intelMintelM: ]

EU needs too test 1.50 here for next direction

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:56 intelM

12:56

[Comment From AlexanderAlexander: ]

So what is ur opinion about GBP?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:56 Alexander

12:56

Valeria Bednarik:

As long as we remain consolidating above 1.6600, chances are to the upside.

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:56 Valeria Bednarik

12:56

[Comment From caysluecayslue: ]

Hi Val,

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:56 cayslue

12:57

[Comment From AshishAshish: ]

Valeria don't you think these low interest rate regime is sowing seeds for a huge bubble across asset classes and put the global economies back in trouble soon ?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:57 Ashish

12:57

Valeria Bednarik:

Not soon enough! but yes... we are out of one bublle mounting next one.

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:57 Valeria Bednarik

12:57

[Comment From zakeerzakeer: ]

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:57 zakeer

12:57

[Comment From zakeerzakeer: ]

what about crude today

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:57 zakeer

12:58

Valeria Bednarik:

Still bullish yet 80 level won't be easy to break hard.

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:58 Valeria Bednarik

12:58

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

and the opposite is true ?

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:58 Guest

12:58

Valeria Bednarik:

I do believe that youa re talking about correlation between dollar data, stocks adn dollar reactions... and in that case, answer is YES

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:58 Valeria Bednarik

12:58

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

I want to thank FXStreet for hosting such great traders like you and thank you for your time with us Valeria.

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:58 Guest

12:59

Valeria Bednarik:

Tks you for the comment

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:59 Valeria Bednarik

12:59

[Comment From caysluecayslue: ]

I am always stopping out. I can increase the stops but they barely get stopped out then continue in direction I thought. what formula do you use for setting stops? Thanks.

Thursday November 5, 2009 12:59 cayslue

1:00

Valeria Bednarik:

That depends on the time frame I'm trading. and of the supports and resistance level each pair has, and the daily range... is not the same a stop forGBP/JPY that can move 300 pips a day, than for JPY/USD that lately barely moves 80 pips per day

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:00 Valeria Bednarik

1:00

[Comment From AshishAshish: ]

Central Banks have failed to address Systemic issues and started doing all the wrong deeds again

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:00 Ashish

1:00

[Comment From AshishAshish: ]

for short term pleasures we are inviting long term pains

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:00 Ashish

1:01

Valeria Bednarik:

Exaclty.. but can we do something about that? or should we accept that as a fact and trade in consequence?

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:01 Valeria Bednarik

1:01

[Comment From zakeerzakeer: ]

thank you

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:01 zakeer

1:01

[Comment From yasir kidwaiyasir kidwai: ]

i want to thanks for fx stereet and specially valeria

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:01 yasir kidwai

1:01

Valeria Bednarik:

Tks you really

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:01 Valeria Bednarik

1:01

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

euro still not moving up side y u got any idea

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:01 Guest

1:02

Valeria Bednarik:

Euro won't move clearly untill Trichet is over...

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:02 Valeria Bednarik

1:02

[Comment From zachzach: ]

Hi Val, just wondering, why don't dr Sivaraman do this online "chat" together with you? quite funny if there is/are comment about "stop hunt" in real time..:)

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:02 zach

1:03

Valeria Bednarik:

Well, good question... I guess we have quite different market perspectives, both valids, but quite different to do something like this togherer...

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:03 Valeria Bednarik

1:03

[Comment From zakeerzakeer: ]

what is ur opinion abou euro intrest rate it will no change or ?

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:03 zakeer

1:03

Valeria Bednarik:

No. Trichet is very stubborn to low them further, but won't risk to raise anytime soon.

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:03 Valeria Bednarik

1:03

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Do you think technical trading is truly applicable in the forex market ? or its just away to popularize retail trading ?

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:03 Guest

1:04

Valeria Bednarik:

I do believe is applicable yes.

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:04 Valeria Bednarik

1:04

[Comment From India ArvindIndia Arvind: ]

when finish this chating ..may i know timing..

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:04 India Arvind

1:04

Valeria Bednarik:

What do you mean? sorry remember english is not my native language and sometimes I need and extra help. Tks!

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:04 Valeria Bednarik

1:04

[Comment From AshishAshish: ]

Indian Central Bank is one of the best managed others should learn a lesson or 2 from them

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:04 Ashish

1:05

Valeria Bednarik:

In here no doubts i need Doc's help! ;)

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:05 Valeria Bednarik

1:05

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

for cable which time frame you often use, Valeria ?

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:05 Guest

1:05

Valeria Bednarik:

for all pairs watch scenario definy it in 4 hours charts, and trade 1 hour and 30 minutes

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:05 Valeria Bednarik

1:05

[Comment From AlexanderAlexander: ]

When is Trichet speach over?

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:05 Alexander

1:05

Valeria Bednarik:

45 minutes or so

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:05 Valeria Bednarik

1:05

[Comment From pramodpramod: ]

can i hear it online

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:05 pramod

1:06

[Ad]	The EURO is EASY to trade View

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:06

1:06

Valeria Bednarik:

yes! at ECB home page... let me ask the administrator to post it

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:06 Valeria Bednarik

1:06

[Comment From India ArvindIndia Arvind: ]

Euro won't move clearly untill Trichet is over.. Trichet mean and when finish Trichet..

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:06 India Arvind

1:07

Valeria Bednarik:

Yes sorry, until speech and questions are over

Thursday November 5, 2009 1:07 Valeria Bednarik

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