ECB and NFP Live Coverage
| ECB Interest Rates Decission and NFP release Live Coverage | (07/02/2009) |
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| 12:16 | FXstreet.com: Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everyone all over the world. Today's ECB Interest Rates Decision and Non-Farm Payrolls Live Coverage will start in 10 minutes. I am really happy to introduce Valeria Bednarik and Nick Nasad. Valeria is going to cover the ECB decision as a co-presenter until 12:00 GMT. From 12:00 GMT Nick Nasad will cover the live event. They will be giving us a direct picture for the market status. |
| 12:17 | FXstreet.com: Valeria Bednarik has been an active Forex trader for the last 4 years, specializing in the International Foreign Exchange Market. She also graduates in the Universidad Catolica del Salvador, in Argentina, as a Public Account, specializing in financials and cost managements. She currently manages an important clients portfolio for IFX Markets, Boston and is senior trader manager at Molfx-Management; besides she works training new traders with Trader College LLC specializing in technical analysis, for the English speaking community. |
| 12:17 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi everybody, and welcome to this live coverage! Is a pleasure to be here again with you all. |
| 12:17 | FXstreet.com: Hi Valeria and welcome to today's event! |
| 12:17 | FXstreet.com: Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex. |
| 12:18 | [Ad] | CMS - Integrated Pattern Recognition Tecnology View |
| 12:18 | Valeria Bednarik: Today, we will be covering live, ECB rates decision, along with U.S. Non Farm Payrolls later with Nick Nassad |
| 12:19 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
| 12:19 | Valeria Bednarik: At this first part of the webinar, we will consider probable market reactions to ECB monetary decisions |
| 12:19 | FXstreet.com: Read Valeria's blog! |
| 12:19 | [Comment From Rahul] wt u say about euro? |
| 12:20 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Rahul and welcome! Well I have been watching earlier today, unemployment rate of euro zone rose to 9.5% almost the same we expect for the U.S. later |
| 12:21 | Valeria Bednarik: Euro zone has nothing to cheer about, despite how hawkish Trichet's speech could be. Comments across the world about bottoming crisis, and signs of recovery |
| 12:21 | Valeria Bednarik: are denied by this unemployment rising readings. |
| 12:21 | Valeria Bednarik: From a technical point, Euro has a first support around 1.4040 yet stronger the 1.4000 level. |
| 12:22 | Valeria Bednarik: break under that zone could trigger some bearish momentum, while above 1.4100, we could see a retest of the 1.4200 |
| 12:22 | Valeria Bednarik: anyway, we are expecting market to hold and range after this first release, |
| 12:22 | Valeria Bednarik: and wait for Trichet speech and NFP later |
| 12:22 | [Comment From arun kandyal] hi what we can expect from gbp n eur today |
| 12:23 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Arun welcome! About euro, well I have just posted. Regarding GBP, the pair isunder selling pressure no doubts. we have an ascendant trend line along with daily 20 SMA around 1.6350 zone, |
| 12:24 | Valeria Bednarik: so, here we have a strong support that should offer some rebounds, as we are seeing now, yet a break and maybe a 4 hours candle opening under that level, |
| 12:25 | Valeria Bednarik: will put some extra pressure in gbp, and chances of a retest of 1.6200 come into play |
| 12:25 | [Comment From zaphy] Hi Valeria. But why is the cable rising? |
| 12:25 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi zaphy! well, we are ahead of a couple of first line events, and pair rebounded just in the strong support zone I mentioned above, |
| 12:26 | Valeria Bednarik: yet not real bullish strength there yet. We have to wait how things settle after the report. |
| 12:26 | Valeria Bednarik: I see first resistance strong level around 1.6470. Break above there in Gbp, will open doors for further rises |
| 12:26 | [Comment From Juozas] Helo, how can nfp report impact usd/jpy pair? |
| 12:27 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Juozas! I believe there the impact will come trough stocks. If stocks rise, UJ will tend to rise, thus the pair has turned sligthly bullish lately, |
| 12:28 | Valeria Bednarik: no clear signs there yet. . we have to see the pair above 97.20, and then 97.80, daily descendant trned line, to call for a real appreciation in the pair |
| 12:29 | Valeria Bednarik: supports on the other and will come at 96.00 level, and then 95.50..I don't expect the pair to fall much more than that |
| 12:29 | [Comment From marti] hi Valeria |
| 12:29 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Marti, welcome
|
| 12:29 | [Comment From arun kandyal] could 1.6200-50 area try to go long |
| 12:30 | Valeria Bednarik: Well arum, is the base of the range we are moving in the last couple of weeks, and at that level, we will be down more than 200 pips in the day, so could be a short term chance.You have to watch the strength of the rebound: |
| 12:31 | Valeria Bednarik: if pair rebounds yet remain hovering around that zone, then, chances are for a break in the next couple of sessions. A strong rebound that put price closer to 1.6300, will be a great sign of still in range |
| 12:31 | [Comment From marti] do u think the euro will go bellow 1.35 |
| 12:32 | Valeria Bednarik: At this moment, seems a bit to far. the level in the longer term to watch to the downside is also far, at 1.3740. That point is need to be broken to see the pair turning bearish and reach that zone |
| 12:32 | [Comment From chintan] what is market trand today |
| 12:32 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi chintan! you can see it at the blog! |
| 12:32 | [Comment From arya] hi Valeria |
| 12:33 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi ayra! welcome |
| 12:33 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
| 12:33 | Valeria Bednarik: There is the link for the blog! tks Fxstreet! |
| 12:33 | [Comment From zaphy] when you say 'expect the pair to fall' do you refer to previous supports/resistances or the range that happened at previous ECB/NFP...announcements? |
| 12:34 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes Zaphy, I refer to previous supp/res levels. The fact is that we need to wait at least 15 minutes, after the realize of NFP to take trading decisions. |
| 12:34 | FXstreet.com: Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex. |
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| 12:34 | Valeria Bednarik: In the midle we will see pairs probably jumping up or down 20 30 pips, |
| 12:35 | FXstreet.com: now let's see what do you think about the ECB... Vote the poll! |
| 12:35 | Valeria Bednarik: with no clear bias... once market diggest the new, trend will be set |
| 12:35 | [Comment From ceasar] Hi Valeria, |
| 12:35 | Will the ECB low the bench mark interest rate? Yes, the ECB will cut it by 25bps ( 2% ) ( 54% ) ( 2% ) ( 43% ) ( 0% ) ( 0% ) |
| 12:35 | [Comment From Jay] TRend is up for the USD, expectations for NFP are positive |
| 12:35 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes Jay, it is. we need to see if previous month has any important revision, and how much unemployment rate rose. |
| 12:36 | Valeria Bednarik: lately a very bad reading have been triggering risk aversion rallyes, that end favoring dollar and yen. |
| 12:36 | Valeria Bednarik: Don't get surprise if we see that again today |
| 12:36 | [Comment From arun kandyal] do u think gbp can go below 1.5500 this month |
| 12:37 | Valeria Bednarik: Arum, in the longer term, we have 3 big supports ahead of that: the 1.6200 base of the range. A monthly 38.2% fibo around 1.6050, and then the lows at 1.5760 or so. |
| 12:37 | Valeria Bednarik: 1.55 seems far with those 3 big supports in the midle. |
| 12:37 | [Comment From ceasar] If i want to play euro/usd right now what should be the lvls to watch out for ? |
| 12:38 | Valeria Bednarik: Ceasar I already post them, look a bit up |
| 12:38 | [Comment From arya] is there any impact for eur/usd , through to 4th july?? |
| 12:38 | Valeria Bednarik: Well, is when oficially summer vacations begins, we will see the famous sumer duldroms... I expect lack of trend and thin volume starting next monday.. so any small event could trigger a strong movement.. |
| 12:39 | [Comment From marti] 10x valeria |
| 12:39 | [Comment From Guest] i was watching the gbp/usd ysterday hoping that it would make a neckline at 1.6610 to short but it never got there would you think that trade is now broken since its trading around 1.6379. |
| 12:40 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes, as posted earlier, if pair maanges to close day under 1.6350, chances of seeing soon 1.66 decrease |
| 12:40 | [Comment From macharia] is it advisable to open any position at the moment or we wait til the news are realised.am much with you here |
| 12:41 | Valeria Bednarik: I just closed all my positions... 15 minutes ago. for me, is a wait and see...market wil be here in 1 hour more.. |
| 12:41 | [Comment From Jay] I'm very curious about Trichet's comments on eurozone deflation, that's basically the most important statement, imho. |
| 12:41 | Valeria Bednarik: Yes Jay, exactly! but we know Trichet tend to be hawkish |
| 12:42 | Valeria Bednarik: so I don't expect him to talk about deflation, you know? ECB was created to fight inflation... and seems Trichet can woory just about that |
| 12:42 | [Comment From macharia] if ecb decide to keep the interest rates unchanged,how wil that afect the eur/usd |
| 12:43 | Valeria Bednarik: rates won't affect market. Later speech and NFP will.. |
| 12:43 | [Comment From Zhang] Could you guess gold's reaction after ECB's rate decision? |
| 12:44 | Valeria Bednarik: Guess? yes! will be a guess as I don't follow it to much, but i don't wait gold to appreciate anytime sooner. we are in a consolidation stage there! wuith price between 950 910... |
| 12:44 | [Comment From Guest] No,they will not change it! |
| 12:44 | [Comment From arun kandyal] what levels do you expect to go long and short in gbp and eur for the next week |
| 12:45 | Valeria Bednarik: Next week arum? let me see what levels we have at today's close and then I tell you! if daily close under or above key levels mentioned earlier, there I will go! |
| 12:45 | Valeria Bednarik: 1 minute to go! |
| 12:45 | Valeria Bednarik: NO CHANGES!
|
| 12:45 | FXstreet.com: ECB Rates Decision: UNCHANGED! |
| 12:46 | Valeria Bednarik: first reaction is stocks positive, and against dollar nothing really too serious yet watch euro if regains the 1.4110 could retest 1.4140/50 zone |
| 12:46 | [Comment From ceasar] I have couple of positions still open.....and am betting on USD strength...do u feel knowing Trichet's comments I should close the position ? |
| 12:46 | FXstreet.com: Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex. |
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| 12:47 | Valeria Bednarik: If you are not risking your account, you can hold them, but this reports, in the short term, turn to just a bet |
| 12:47 | Valeria Bednarik: for me at least! you know? short term trades will be affected no doubts.. longer term decsion no |
| 12:48 | [Comment From ceasar] Zhang, Gold is really not giving any direction and is eating Stop losses either way....today also 945-923 should be the range |
| 12:48 | Valeria Bednarik: yes ceaser tks! |
| 12:48 | [Comment From Guest] why doesn't the market react ? |
| 12:48 | Valeria Bednarik: waiting for NFP and Trichet speech as usual |
| 12:48 | [Comment From Tarun] Good day valeria , how this will effect gbp/usd ? and can we see 1.43 and 1.67 levels in EURO and GBP against USD again ? |
| 12:50 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi tarum, seems a bit too much for today, but to call for such levels, we need to see Gbp close the day at least above 1.6470/6500 zone, and euro well above 1.4150. I don't see really chances of both pair rising too much, Euro, because of 9.5% unempoloyment rate, |
| 12:50 | Valeria Bednarik: Gbp, because all the bad data including awgul GDP we are seeing this week |
| 12:50 | [Comment From Jay] Rate unchanged was to be expected, now what about quantative easing ECB style? What do you expect Valeria? |
| 12:51 | Valeria Bednarik: Exactly Jay! that will push euro.. no more quantitative and a hawkish comment, could push euro up no doubts. And I don't expect Trichet to be dovish.. matbe he sorprise me today... |
| 12:51 | [Comment From heru] valeria, what do you feel about eur/usd, a good buy or sell ? |
| 12:52 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi Heru! I learn to not watch what I FEEL many years ago in here.... je.. joking.. anyway! sell euro if reach 1.4200 again... or break under 1.3980.. that's what i will try to do |
| 12:52 | [Comment From arun kandyal] thx val |
| 12:52 | [Comment From Guest] what time is pseech by trichet? |
| 12:53 | Valeria Bednarik: at 12:30 gmt along with NFP... |
| 12:53 | [Comment From nagalla] what will happen in eur\usd if NFP comes better than expect? |
| 12:53 | Valeria Bednarik: Hi nagalla! if NFP comes really better, we could see stocks rising and maybe euro rising too |
| 12:53 | [Comment From VG] I think Trichet comments are important |
| 12:53 | [Comment From Guest] so does this mean eur/jpy ... will set new highs ? |
| 12:54 | Valeria Bednarik: Probably yes! expect a retest of the 150 area zone there.. we are in a bullish trend, guided by a pretty nice ascendant trned line, today around 134. |
| 12:54 | [Comment From Tarun] so a perfect trend reversal from tomorrow ? can we take sell positions ? |
| 12:55 | Valeria Bednarik: Maybe Tarum! we will review this later today at 22.30 GMT in the live wrap up webinar! |
| 12:55 | [Comment From ceasar] I have a strong feeling that all said and done...either way we will see Dollar strength later today..Trichet will be Dovish today for a change and would be on the rethoric that ECB is willing to take steps to increase liquidity etc... |
| 12:55 | Valeria Bednarik: well, Ceasar just 2 hours to see the true.. |
| 12:56 | [Comment From mangalia] so it's a good time to go long on gbp/jpy ? |
| 12:56 | Valeria Bednarik: not for me.. if gbp falls under 1.6350... gbp is possed for a stronger fall
|
| 12:56 | [Comment From ceasar] Well said Valeria....we are still in the stage where we trade with what we FEEL...and have to learn to do as you said ! |
| 12:57 | [Comment From Faraz] they are saying to record easing policy! what will be its impact on the market? |
| 12:57 | FXstreet.com: The Advisor Blog by Valeria Bednarik |
| 12:57 | Valeria Bednarik: poor euro.. if they ease. |
| 12:57 | [Comment From Sushant] i have some long positions in euro usd running in losses...shall i hold? |
| 12:57 | Valeria Bednarik: Sushant... not for me... place a stop... and find a point where your account wont be harmed |
| 12:58 | [Comment From Brendan] Do you believe that there is some correlation between gold and euro ? |
| 12:58 | Valeria Bednarik: Correlation is between dollar and gold, they tend to move oppoiste so yes, at the end, euro sees the impact |
| 12:58 | [Comment From Ricky] Hi Valeria !! ; P |
| 12:58 | [Comment From Tarun] oh sure valeria !! and thanks a lot |
| 12:59 | FXstreet.com: Thank you Valeria for giving us a great market view!... |
| 12:59 | Valeria Bednarik: Ok so! i'm really sorry to leave you all, but I will give my place to Nick Nassad! |
| 12:59 | Valeria Bednarik: welcome Nick, and all of you enjoy! and good trading! see you back in webinars, blog, and next ECB time! |
| 1:00 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Hello everyone, and thank you Valeria for your excellent coverage |
| 1:00 | FXstreet.com: we have had a great time with you. From now Nick will take over the event. |
| 1:00 | Valeria Bednarik: Tks all! see you soon! Bye! |
| 1:00 | Nick Nasad - CMS: and thank you fxstreet for having me on again |
| 1:01 | FXstreet.com: Nick Nasad is a currency market analyst with CMS Forex for the last 3 years. He closely monitors fundamental releases and reports their results and provides commentary to the company's clients through CMS Forex's interactive economic calendar Forex Capsule and through daily Forex market video recaps. He has also written extensive educational material on using technical analysis in trading Forex. |
| 1:02 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the reation so far to the ECB decision has been muted, as we await what Trichet has to say regarding quantitative easing and inflation. We saw flash CPI data from the Euro-zone show a negative reading, increasing worries over weak infaltion |
| 1:02 | Nick Nasad - CMS: that would suggest that the plans for quantitative easing by the ECB would continue, and we may get some language regarding that in today's statement. |
| 1:02 | FXstreet.com: Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex. |
| 1:02 | [Comment From arun kandyal] could you provide me the link where i can get to know about the trichet speech |
| 1:03 | Nick Nasad - CMS: http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html |
| 1:03 | Nick Nasad - CMS: you will be able to find the speech here |
| 1:03 | [Comment From Jon] Is sterling doomed again then? |
| 1:05 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The Pound is managing a slight rally after sliding from teh 1.65 level in today's trading. The GBP/USD looked set to break out of its sideways range on Tuesday, but the weak GDP data squashed that rally. |
| 1:06 | Nick Nasad - CMS: though manufacturing data was better than expected yesterday, construction PMI weakened today, adding another piece of negative fundamental data to this week. |
| 1:07 | Nick Nasad - CMS: That and a decline in stocks were all pressuring the Pound to start the European session. If the NFP figure comes in far away from expectations, the pair may see a strong move, other wise it looks like we may be playing the range |
| 1:07 | [Comment From david] nick if NFP come in worse than expected. do you see USD rallying do to risk adversion? |
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| 1:08 | What do you anticipate the outcome of NFP? Better than expected and bullish for the USD ( 23% ) ( 8% ) ( 25% ) ( 40% ) ( 5% ) |
| 1:09 | Nick Nasad - CMS: higher than expected NFP would add more to speculation that the global recovery will be a slower one. That would have the reaction of weakening higher-yielders and boosting the greenback. |
| 1:09 | [Comment From MIKE] HI NICK...LAST TIME YOU RIGHTLY PREDICTED 'CONFLICTED FORECED' ..BETTER TOTAL ENEMPLOYED NO,,VS HIGHER RATE...DO SEE ANY SUCH TODAY? |
| 1:10 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the unemployment rate will be rather important as we approach the dreaded 10% unemployment rate. |
| 1:11 | Nick Nasad - CMS: expectations are for a climb to 9.6%. That can happen even if the payroll figure comes in close to expectations, around a loss of 345K. |
| 1:12 | [Comment From Iman] Hi Nick, I'd be happy to hear your comments about today's NFP data and your speculation about how it would impact the majors. |
| 1:15 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the ADP employment change yesterday showed private sector employment down more than expected, a negative factor on the upcoming NFP. We also saw consumer confidence fall partly on the fact that sentiment about the availability of jobs in June was weak. However, in the manfuacturing PMI for the US, employmnet was shown to have decreased at a slower rate.. So, on the one hand, looking at the decrease in jobless claims in teh last month, expectations are for a similar figure to May, though if you are pessimistic payrolls could drop as much as 400K |
| 1:15 | Nick Nasad - CMS: as i mentioned earlier, a higher than expected print should work to hurt risk appetite, increasing risk aversion, and the greenback and yen. |
| 1:15 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the EUR/USD is extending to new lows for the day now near 1.4050 |
| 1:16 | Nick Nasad - CMS: we've slid a good amount already today, since yesterday's test of 1.42., but there is still room to fall to 1.40 |
| 1:17 | Nick Nasad - CMS: that has been a key support, and also lines up with a short term upward sloping trendling (connecting the lows from June 23rd and June 25) |
| 1:17 | FXstreet.com: Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex. |
| 1:18 | [Comment From pepa] do you think that euro will reach 1.4180 today |
| 1:18 | [Comment From ali] hi nick ,would u like to comment about the nfp date impact on gpb |
| 1:20 | Nick Nasad - CMS: with the focus on the prospects for the global economy's recovery and not on just the health of the US economy, today's NFP should play into risk sentiment. a better than expected figure can stall today's greenback advances., however a figure that is worse than expected can extend the gains by the greenback. |
| 1:20 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the EUR continues to drop prior ot the release. |
| 1:20 | [Comment From Mr. CAD] Given the balooning deficits of the UK why should GBP go up? |
| 1:22 | Nick Nasad - CMS: though the deficit is a problem, what traders are watching for with the Pound are signs of a recovery which would give the Bank of England room to conclude their quantitative easing measures, and for the bank to eventually raise interest rates. the economy that recovers first (from the US, UK, Euro) and looks closest to raising interest rates will be a beneficiary in the medium term. |
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| 1:23 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the sideways range we are seeing in the gbp/usd since June 11th is an indication that traders and investors are not sure which direction to take the pair |
| 1:23 | [Comment From zaphy] Given the ballooning deficits in the US why should that go up :)? |
| 1:24 | Nick Nasad - CMS: this is a good point in that high deficits are not exclusive to the UK, as the US and others are using all the tools at their disposal to try and pump liquidity into the markets and to stimulate recovery through fiscal spending. |
| 1:25 | [Comment From mike] I do not get the idea of the ECB being hawkish,Is convenient a higher euro for them in terms of recovery??? |
| 1:26 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Like Valeria pointed out before, the ECB's main goal is to fight inflation and so usually policy makers err on that side. The reasons for this go back to the formation of the ECB and the fact that the German central bank valued price stability very highly (they suffered through hyper inflation and never want to repeat that) |
| 1:27 | Nick Nasad - CMS: however with annual CPI turning negative in June, eyes will be focused more on the quantitative easing plans than on inflation. |
| 1:28 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The Pound is showing some signs of life, advancing agasint the Swiss Franc |
| 1:28 | Nick Nasad - CMS: and paring its earlier losses to the Yen |
| 1:29 | Nick Nasad - CMS: only a couple of minutes away |
| 1:29 | [Comment From Adrian] It's 5 minutes to NFP, any ideas to Open Position? |
| 1:30 | Nick Nasad - CMS: at this point its better to see what the release holds, and the initial reaction |
| 1:30 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Eur/usd falls to 1.4015 very sharply, and then pares that, looks like we have a pick up in volatility |
| 1:30 | Nick Nasad - CMS: -467K |
| 1:31 | FXstreet.com: Non Farm Payrolls Actual -467K vs Forecast -375K Unemployment rate 9.5% vs Forecast 9.6% |
| 1:32 | Nick Nasad - CMS: this is the figure that meats pessimists expectations, worse than expected, and lets see if the dollar gets punished as it implies the US economy is worse than expected, or if risk sentiment forces and an increase in risk aversion helps the greenback. |
| 1:32 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the EUR/USD after the initial slide to 1.4016 is trading around its pre-release levels. |
| 1:33 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the USD/JPY slid to a new intra-day low at 96.30 in the wake of the release, |
| 1:33 | FXstreet.com: Non Farm Payrolls Actual -467K vs Forecast -375K Unemployment rate 9.5% vs Forecast 9.6% |
| 1:34 | Nick Nasad - CMS: there are 2 factors countering the weak payroll figure.. the fact that the unemployment rate is better than expected and last month's figure showing a positive revision |
| 1:34 | [Comment From ceasar] AUD is the weak link |
| 1:36 | Nick Nasad - CMS: The Aussie has been under pressure all session following its weak trade balance data., It looks to be setting up a downward channel, if you connect this week's highs, and project a parallel trendline to yetserday lows.., the greenback gained to the 0.7980 level jsut now, which not only hits that support trendline i mention, but is also horizontal support from Monday |
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| 1:36 | Nick Nasad - CMS: weak trade will give the Australian economy strong headwinds in teh second half of the year, complicating the country's economic picture |
| 1:37 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Meanwhile, jobless claims fell 16K to 614K |
| 1:38 | Nick Nasad - CMS: following the initial 5 minutes of volatile action, lets see if we have follow through to the initial greenback strength |
| 1:39 | Nick Nasad - CMS: greenback strength is evident again, |
| 1:40 | FXstreet.com: Non Farm Payrolls Actual -467K vs Forecast -375K Unemployment rate 9.5% vs Forecast 9.6% |
| 1:40 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the data shows that the outlook that some economists had, and which led to the consensus forecast was too optimistic, and that the labor market in the US will continue to drag down growth., that spells trouble for the biggest economy, which will radiate out to the global economy. |
| 1:40 | Nick Nasad - CMS: that is why we are seeing such a strong move to risk aversion. |
| 1:41 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the AUD/USD is retesting 0.7972, moviong below monday's low. |
| 1:41 | [Comment From Peter] ok now what? time to start early weekend? |
| 1:42 | Nick Nasad - CMS: there's still going to be some importanat moves to shake out today, considering the NFP figure came in so far below expectations.. so dont pack it up just yet,.. |
| 1:42 | [Comment From mystic mike] suposed to be large buy interest on eurusd at 1.4000 |
| 1:43 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the 1.40 level has been a key support level for the pair this week. and was important resistance last week, so its is a very important level to watch. |
| 1:44 | [Comment From jef] I don't trust the euro down move.. |
| 1:45 | FXstreet.com: Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex. |
| 1:46 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the pair has bounced off the upward sloping level of support i had mentioned earlier, and its worth it to wait to see which side wins out in this pair, we are having very volatile action, and should keep an eye if we retest the low seen right after the release. |
| 1:46 | [Comment From ceasar] what time is Trichet's press conference ??? |
| 1:47 | Nick Nasad - CMS: right now the reaction in the markets is being driven by the reaction to the labor data from the US. but you can follow trichet's speech here: http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html |
| 1:50 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the GBP/JPY saw a sharp fall, wiping away the attempt at a counter rally, and is now at its lowest since Monday. connecting recent highs from June 23rd also shows a break of an upward sloping trendling of support. |
| 1:50 | [Comment From nys] hmm, how long do you think it will take for a eur/usd volality to subside? |
| 1:52 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the NFP data changes the outlook economists had for the US jobs market, as the deterioration that econoimsts had expected to ease not materializing. therefore as traders and investors price in the data we will have volatile conditions.. |
| 1:54 | Nick Nasad - CMS: Trichet said that inflation risks are broadly based and that interest rates are "appropriate" |
| 1:54 | Nick Nasad - CMS: high volatility continues as the Euro moves back to 1.4050 level |
| 1:56 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the EUR/JPY is testing a level of support now as well, connecting highs from June 23rd and June 28th.. following the rally to 136.80.. a break there and of horizontal support at 135 could be an indication of further correction in this pair |
| 1:56 | [Comment From ceasar] seems like last leg up....USD should strenghten !!! |
| 1:57 | Nick Nasad - CMS: yes, we are having quite the back and forth prce action. |
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| 1:58 | Nick Nasad - CMS: in more from Trichet's conference, he says that negative inflation to be short-lived, and that the risks to economic outlook look balanced.. |
| 1:59 | [Comment From yoshi] i just wanna ask mr nick, do u think gbp/usd will move up again in next few days, or continue to react bearish? what the reason then.. thanks before... |
| 2:01 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the gbp/usd has been trading in a very defined sideways channel the past several weeks. I would suggest that you watch for what happens at that channels support at 1.62 and resistance at 1.66., currently the Pound is coming under pressure from weak GDP data, and the increase in risk aversion seen in the overnight session. but as along as we are stuck within this range its hard to see a direction for the pair. theres always the possibility of trading the range if you have that as part of your trading strategy... |
| 2:02 | Nick Nasad - CMS: so it looks like the EUR/USD may have bounced off its support and is now holding onto the 1.4050 area. that could mean limited greenback gains the rest of the way.. the USD/JPy meanwhile is setting new intraday lows. |
| 2:03 | FXstreet.com: Sorry .... we just have 5 minutes left.. if you have any questions, Please ask Nick! |
| 2:04 | [Comment From pippin] Hey Nick, Great commentary so far. what do you think about the CHF? Do you think the banks will intervene? |
| 2:06 | Nick Nasad - CMS: well, we saw what it looks like when the Swiss bank intervenes, we had a very strong example on June 24th in the EUR/CHF. the swiss national bank has drawn a line in the sand at teh 1.50 level, though they have not said so publicly. since the swiss franc climbs on risk aversion, if economic data remains weak, the franc should continue gaining. That could force another round of intervention as the SNB is determined to be aggressive in stopping any unwanted appreciation of its currency |
| 2:06 | [Comment From miq-glen] After G/J sharp fall, what next for G/J direction? |
| 2:08 | Nick Nasad - CMS: we can have a further correction to the rally seen from june 23rd to june 30th, though we have entered a zone between 156.70 and 158 that may support the pair |
| 2:08 | Nick Nasad - CMS: sorry everyone, my time here is coming to an end. im going to take one last question |
| 2:08 | [Comment From Vern] Hi guys. I'm trading the USD/CAD and would be interested to know your views |
| 2:10 | Nick Nasad - CMS: the USD/CAD, like the GBP/USD is in a sideways trading range with support at 1.1450 and ressitance at 1.1650. We went from the top of that range to the bottom in yesterday's trading. If risk aversion and lower commodity prices rule the rest of the week, the greenback will strengthen here.. Look what happens at 1.1650 though as the pair has so far been unable to penetrate that level |
| 2:10 | Nick Nasad - CMS: and that's all the time i have.. |
| 2:10 | FXstreet.com: Sorry people... It is time to wrap up the event. |
| 2:11 | Nick Nasad - CMS: i really appreciate all the questions, we had so many, so im sorry to anyone that didnt get theirs posted. |
| 2:11 | Nick Nasad - CMS: thank you for your time and participation |
| 2:12 | FXstreet.com: Thank you Nick for the great market view. We really appreciate that.. Thank you very much! |
| 2:12 | Nick Nasad - CMS: thank you all, hope to see you next time |
| 2:12 | FXstreet.com: And i am really happy to have had a nice time those have joined the event, Thank you for coming! |
| 2:14 | FXstreet.com: Alright, i hope to see you all again here in the next live coverage. Thank you!. Bye for now. Adios! |
| 2:14 | FXstreet.com: Today’s sponsor is CMS Forex. |
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